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OBJECTIVES--To assess the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to common forms of osteoarthritis of the hands and knees. DESIGN--Classic twin study with unselected twins who were screened radiologically for osteoarthritis. SUBJECTS--130 identical and 120 non-identical female twins aged 48-70 recruited from a London based twin register and through a national media campaign. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Similarity in identical compared with non-identical twin pairs for radiographic changes at the interphalangeal and first carpometacarpal joints of the hands and the tibiofemoral joint and patellofemoral joint of the knee expressed as intraclass correlations. RESULTS--The intraclass correlations of radiographic osteophytes and narrowing at most sites and the presence of Heberden''s nodes and knee pain were higher in the identical pairs. The intraclass correlation of the total radiographic osteoarthritis score in identical pairs (rMZ) was 0.64 (SE 0.05) compared with 0.38 (0.08) in non-identical pairs. The proportion of genetic variance of total osteoarthritis score (osteophytes and narrowing) with modelling techniques was estimated at 0.54 (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.65) and ranged from 0.39 to 0.65 for different sites and features (p < 0.001) after adjustment for age and weight. CONCLUSIONS--These results demonstrate for the first time a clear genetic effect for radiographic osteoarthritis of the hand and knee in women, with a genetic influence ranging from 39-65%, independent of known environmental or demographic confounders. The results of this study should lead to further work on isolating the gene or genes involved in the pathogenesis of the common disabling disease.  相似文献   

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In order to investigate the genetic and environmental antecedents of osteoarthritis (OA), self-report measures of joint pain, stiffness and swelling were obtained from a population-based sample of 1242 twin pairs over 50 years of age. In order to provide validation for these self-report measures, a subsample of 118 twin pairs were examined according to the American College of Rheumatology clinical and radiographic criteria for the classification of osteoarthritis. A variety of statistical methods were employed to identify the model derived from self-report variables which would provide optimal prediction of these standardised assessments, and structural equation modelling was used to determine the relative influences of genetic and environmental influences on the development of osteoarthritis. Significant genetic effects were found to contribute to osteoarthritis of the hands, hips and knees in women, with heritability estimates ranging from 30-46% depending on the site. In addition, the additive genetic effects contributing to osteoarthritis in various parts of the body were confirmed to be the same. Statistically significant familial aggregation of osteoarthritis in men was also observed, but it was not possible to determine whether this was due to genetic or shared environmental effects.  相似文献   

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Recent data indicate that there is increased risk of congenital cardiovascular malformations (CCVM) within families of probands diagnosed with congenital cardiovascular malformations that are due to altered embryonic blood flow (flow lesions). In the present study, regressive models recently developed by Bonney were used to compare specific models of inheritance and to test for etiologic heterogeneity among three subgroups of 375 flow-lesion families identified by the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study. When all families were analyzed as a single group, the best-fitting model was a simple recessive model with Mendelian transmission; race did not have a significant effect on estimated risk. Separate analyses of families of probands with left heart defects, right heart defects, and ventricular septal defects (VSD) confirmed this simple Mendelian recessive model as the model of choice. However, when race was included as a covariate in these genetic models, there was evidence for significant heterogeneity among the three subgroups. There was an increased risk to relatives of white probands with right heart defects and to relatives of black probands with VSD, while there was no effect of race among relatives of probands with left heart defects. These results strongly suggest that there is etiologic heterogeneity in the control of CCVM among flow-lesion families and that the patterns of familial aggregation differ among the races.  相似文献   

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We explored familiality as well as the heritability and possible mode(s) of inheritance of acute appendicitis in childhood and early adolescence. Our case-control study showed that a positive family history for reported appendectomy was significantly more frequent in families of 80 consecutive patients eventually proved to have histopathologic acute appendicitis than in families of surgical controls matched for sex, age, and number of siblings. The relative risk was 10.0 (95% confidence limits 4.7-21.4). The pattern of familial aggregation was further supported by the fact that the age-standardized morbidity ratio was four times greater among family members of cases than among controls. We then applied the unified mixed model of segregation analysis, as implemented in the computer program POINTER, to a new set of 100 multigenerational pedigrees of children with histopathologically confirmed acute appendicitis that were broken down into 674 nuclear families. Age-specific morbidity risk and lifetime incidence of acute appendicitis were estimated from relatives of controls matched for age and sex to probands. Complex segregation analysis supported a polygenic or multifactorial model with a total heritability of 56%. There was no evidence to support a major gene, although a rare gene could not be ruled out as the cause of a small proportion of cases. Specific studies to address genetic and environmental factors in this serious disease seem worthwhile; but, for now, a positive family history of appendicitis might join other evidence leading to improved clinical recognition of acute appendicitis.  相似文献   

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Modelling the influence of risk factors on familial aggregation of disease.   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
O O Aalen 《Biometrics》1991,47(3):933-945
One often observes a familial resemblance of risk factors of disease. The following question then arises: How much familial aggregation of cases of disease would be expected because of this resemblance? This problem is attacked through a particular model where the risk is supposed to depend exponentially on the risk factors. Only pairs of relatives (father/son) are considered. The calculations are performed both with normally distributed risk factors and with particular skewed distributions. An application to coronary heart disease is given.  相似文献   

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All 8th-form schoolgirls from the municipality of Odense in Denmark were asked at what age they reached menarche, and 886 girls (97.6%) gave this information. There is no evidence for seasonality in the time of birth but for far more girls than expected menarche occurred during winter or summer and fewer than expected during spring and autumn. This pattern appears primarily in girls living in the suburbs and was not seen in those living in central Odense. The seasonality appears to be brought about by differences in mean age at menarche according to time of the year at birth.  相似文献   

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The nature of the "toxic gain of function" that results from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)-, Parkinson-, and Alzheimer-related mutations is a matter of debate. As a result no adequate model of any neurodegenerative disease etiology exists. We demonstrate that two synergistic properties, namely, increased protein aggregation propensity (increased likelihood that an unfolded protein will aggregate) and decreased protein stability (increased likelihood that a protein will unfold), are central to ALS etiology. Taken together these properties account for 69% of the variability in mutant Cu/Zn-superoxide-dismutase-linked familial ALS patient survival times. Aggregation is a concentration-dependent process, and spinal cord motor neurons have higher concentrations of Cu/Zn-superoxide dismutase than the surrounding cells. Protein aggregation therefore is expected to contribute to the selective vulnerability of motor neurons in familial ALS.  相似文献   

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A Donner  W Hauck 《Biometrics》1988,44(2):369-378
A new estimator of a common odds ratio is proposed for case-control studies of familial aggregation. The proposed estimator is a modification to the usual Mantel-Haenszel estimator that relies on an empirical adjustment for the within-family clustering which is typical of such designs. A simulation study shows that the estimator tends to have smaller mean squared error than the unmodified Mantel-Haenszel estimator under conditions likely to arise in practice. The construction of confidence intervals is also discussed.  相似文献   

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Studies on familial aggregation of cancer may suggest an overall contribution of inherited genes or a shared environment in the development of malignant disease. We performed a meta-analysis on familial clustering of prostate cancer. Out of 74 studies reporting data on familial aggregation of prostate cancer in unselected populations retrieved by a Pubmed search and browsing references, 33 independent studies meeting the inclusion criteria were used in the analysis performed with the random effects model. The pooled rate ratio (RR) for first-degree family history, i.e. affected father or brother, is 2.48 (95% confidence interval: 2.25–2.74). The incidence rate for men who have a brother who got prostate cancer increases 3.14 times (CI:2.37–4.15), and for those with affected father 2.35 times (CI:2.02–2.72). The pooled estimate of RR for two or more affected first-degree family members relative to no history in father and in brother is 4.39 (CI:2.61–7.39). First-degree family history appears to increase the incidence rate of prostate cancer more in men under 65 (RR:2.87, CI:2.21–3.74), than in men aged 65 and older (RR:1.92, CI:1.49–2.47), p for interaction = 0.002. The attributable fraction among those having an affected first-degree relative equals to 59.7% (CI:55.6–63.5%) for men at all ages, 65.2% (CI:57.7–71.4%) for men younger than 65 and 47.9% (CI:37.1–56.8%) for men aged 65 or older. For those with a family history in 2 or more first-degree family members 77.2% (CI:65.4–85.0%) of prostate cancer incidence can be attributed to the familial clustering. Our combined estimates show strong familial clustering and a significant effect-modification by age meaning that familial aggregation was associated with earlier disease onset (before age 65).  相似文献   

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M. McGregor 《CMAJ》1971,105(11):1139
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In genetic research of chronic diseases, age-at-onset outcomes within families are often correlated. The nature of correlation of age-at-onset outcomes is indicative of common genetic and/or shared environmental risk factors among family members. Understanding patterns of such correlation may shed light on the disease etiology and, hence, is an important step to take prior to further searching for the responsible genes via segregation and linkage studies. Age-at-onset outcomes are different from those familiar quantitative or qualitative traits for which many statistical methods have been developed. In comparison with the quantitative traits, age-at-onset outcomes are often censored, i.e., instead of actual age-at-onset outcomes, only the current ages or ages at death are observed. They are also different from qualitative traits because of their continuity. Because of the complexity of correlated censored outcomes, few methods have yet been developed. A traditional approach is to impose a parametric joint distribution for the correlated age-at-onset outcomes, which has been criticized for requiring a stringent assumption about the entire distribution of age at onset. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for assessing familial aggregation of correlated age-at-onset outcomes semiparametrically, by use of estimating equations. This method does not require any parametric assumption for modeling the age at onset. The estimates of parameters, including those quantifying the correlation within families, are consistent and have an asymptotic normal distribution that can be used to make inferences. To illustrate this new method, we analyzed two age-at-onset data sets that were obtained from studies conducted in the States of Washington and Hawaii, with the objective of quantifying the familial aggregations of age at onset of breast cancer.  相似文献   

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E. C. Percy 《CMAJ》1970,102(2):137-139
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