Severe 2010 cold-water event caused unprecedented mortality to corals of the Florida reef tract and reversed previous survivorship patterns

Background

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species.

Conclusions/Significance

The cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover.     

Turning up the Heat: Increasing Temperature and Coral Bleaching at the High Latitude Coral Reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands

Background

Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos.

Methodology/ Principal Findings

We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900–2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups.

Conclusions/ Significance

In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008–2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900–2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.     

Reef-Building Corals of Vietnam as a Part of the Indo-Pacific Reef Ecosystem

The paper analyzes both published and unpublished results of the investigations of Vietnamese reef-building corals and reefs performed in the last decades of the twentieth century. The state of the art in the study of reef-building scleractinian corals and reefs is presented. The scleractinian fauna of Vietnam is shown to match in species diversity (366 species of 70 genera) the tropical coral fauna of the Indonesian-Malacca fertile center, from which Indo-Pacific reef-building corals originated. The whole Vietnam coast from the Gulf of Tonkin to the Gulf of Siam is a biogeographically single whole and is a part of the Indo-Polynesian Province of the Indo-Pacific Area.     

Unprecedented Mass Bleaching and Loss of Coral across 12° of Latitude in Western Australia in 2010–11

Background

Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010–11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12° of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Extreme La-Niña conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5°C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (±5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (±3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%–83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf.

Conclusions/Significance

The anomalous thermal stress of 2010–11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.     

Physiological Response of the Hard Coral Pocillopora verrucosa from Lombok,Indonesia, to Two Common Pollutants in Combination with High Temperature

Knowledge on interactive effects of global (e.g. ocean warming) and local stressors (e.g. pollution) is needed to develop appropriate management strategies for coral reefs. Surfactants and diesel are common coastal pollutants, but knowledge of their effects on hard corals as key reef ecosystem engineers is scarce. This study thus investigated the physiological reaction of Pocillopora verrucosa from Lombok, Indonesia, to exposure with a) the water-soluble fraction of diesel (determined by total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH); 0.69 ± 0.14 mg L-1), b) the surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS; 0.95 ± 0.02 mg L-1) and c) combinations of each pollutant with high temperature (+3°C). To determine effects on metabolism, respiration, photosynthetic efficiency and coral tissue health were measured. Findings revealed no significant effects of diesel, while LAS resulted in severe coral tissue losses (16–95% after 84 h). High temperature led to an increase in photosynthetic yield of corals after 48 h compared to the control treatment, but no difference was detected thereafter. In combination, diesel and high temperature significantly increased coral dark respiration, whereas LAS and high temperature caused higher tissue losses (81–100% after 84 h) and indicated a severe decline in maximum quantum yield. These results confirm the hypothesized combined effects of high temperature with either of the two investigated pollutants. Our study demonstrates the importance of reducing import of these pollutants in coastal areas in future adaptive reef management, particularly in the context of ocean warming.     

Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

Background

Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the “committed warming” for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year⁻¹) thermal stress by 2080. An additional “societal” warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO₂ stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years.

Conclusions/Significance

The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions – could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world''s coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events.     

Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks

Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean, especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1,500 km of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome, an emergent disease, or potentially, a group of diseases, of Pacific reef-building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years, but only on high (>50%) cover reefs, suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies, which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans, can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease, leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant.     

A preliminary assessment of the invasiveness of the Indo-Pacific sponge Chalinula nematifera on coral communities from the tropical Eastern Pacific

This is the first report of a sponge that overgrows live corals in the tropical Eastern Pacific ocean. Chalinula nematifera, native from the Indo-Pacific region, is an invasive sponge recorded for the first time in 2003 on coral communities from the Isla Isabel National Park (Mexican Pacific Ocean). Later, in 2006, it was found also on coral reefs from the Cabo Pulmo National Park; 217 nautical miles far away. It has been suggested that C. nematifera was introduced as fouling on ship hulls that have arrived at Isla Isabel from the Indo-Pacific. In this paper we examined the habitat specificity and the distribution and abundance through time of C. nematifera. While there were no significant variations in abundance through time, this species showed a very high specificity for living on live corals of the genus Pocillopora (94% vs. 6% on rocks). One of the environmental parameters that may explain this specificity for ramified corals is the low light intensity inside the coral colony, which was 96% lower than outside it. Coral reefs are currently struggling with a multitude of impacts that have weakened their resilience and pushed them away from equilibrium. As a result, more attention on ecology of corals is necessary. Although the abundance of C. nematifera seems to be stable, long-term monitoring programs (including studies of growth rates and recruitment) are needed to determine if this species could represent a threat to the Mexican coral ecosystem in the future.     

Reef-Building Corals and Reefs of Vietnam: 1. The Gulf of Thailand

This paper deals with the history and investigations of the reefs and coral communities of the Gulf of Thailand based on published and unpublished materials, including the author's. The state of the art in the study of reef-building scleractinian corals and reefs of this region is presented. Characterized by remarkable distinctive features, the coral fauna and reefs of the Gulf of Thailand exhibit high similarity in coral species composition to other regions of Vietnam and form a single complex of species of the equatorial Indo-Pacific.     

Responses of the Metabolism of the Larvae of Pocillopora damicornis to Ocean Acidification and Warming

Ocean acidification and warming are expected to threaten the persistence of tropical coral reef ecosystems. As coral reefs face multiple stressors, the distribution and abundance of corals will depend on the successful dispersal and settlement of coral larvae under changing environmental conditions. To explore this scenario, we used metabolic rate, at holobiont and molecular levels, as an index for assessing the physiological plasticity of Pocillopora damicornis larvae from this site to conditions of ocean acidity and warming. Larvae were incubated for 6 hours in seawater containing combinations of CO₂ concentration (450 and 950 µatm) and temperature (28 and 30°C). Rates of larval oxygen consumption were higher at elevated temperatures. In contrast, high CO₂ levels elicited depressed metabolic rates, especially for larvae released later in the spawning period. Rates of citrate synthase, a rate-limiting enzyme in aerobic metabolism, suggested a biochemical limit for increasing oxidative capacity in coral larvae in a warming, acidifying ocean. Biological responses were also compared between larvae released from adult colonies on the same day (cohorts). The metabolic physiology of Pocillopora damicornis larvae varied significantly by day of release. Additionally, we used environmental data collected on a reef in Moorea, French Polynesia to provide information about what adult corals and larvae may currently experience in the field. An autonomous pH sensor provided a continuous time series of pH on the natal fringing reef. In February/March, 2011, pH values averaged 8.075±0.023. Our results suggest that without adaptation or acclimatization, only a portion of naïve Pocillopora damicornis larvae may have suitable metabolic phenotypes for maintaining function and fitness in an end-of-the century ocean.     

Atmospheric dimethysulphide production from corals in the Great Barrier Reef and links to solar radiation, climate and coral bleaching

Coral zooxanthellae contain high concentrations of dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP), the precursor of dimethylsulphide (DMS), an aerosol substance that could affect cloud cover, solar radiation and ocean temperatures. Acropora intermedia a dominant staghorn coral in the Indo-Pacific region, contain some of the highest concentrations of DMSP reported in the literature but no studies have shown that corals produce atmospheric DMS in situ and thus could potentially participate in sea surface temperature (SST) regulation over reefs; or how production varies during coral bleaching. We show that A. intermedia from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) produces significant amounts of atmospheric DMS, in chamber experiments, indicating that coral reefs in this region could contribute to an “ocean thermostat” similar to that described for the western Pacific warm pool, where significantly fewer coral reefs have bleached during the last 25?years because of a cloud-SST feedback. However, when Acropora intermedia was stressed with higher light levels and seawater temperatures DMSP production, an indicator of zooxanthellae expulsion, increased markedly in the chamber, whilst atmospheric DMS emissions almost completely shut down. These results suggest that during increased light levels and seawater temperatures in the GBR coral shut-down atmospheric DMS aerosol production, potentially increasing solar radiation levels over reefs and exacerbating coral bleaching.     

Coral uptake of inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen negatively affected by simultaneous changes in temperature and pH

The effects of ocean acidification and elevated seawater temperature on coral calcification and photosynthesis have been extensively investigated over the last two decades, whereas they are still unknown on nutrient uptake, despite their importance for coral energetics. We therefore studied the separate and combined impacts of increases in temperature and pCO₂ on phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate uptake rates by the scleractinian coral S. pistillata. Three experiments were performed, during 10 days i) at three pH_T conditions (8.1, 7.8, and 7.5) and normal temperature (26°C), ii) at three temperature conditions (26°, 29°C, and 33°C) and normal pH_T (8.1), and iii) at three pH_T conditions (8.1, 7.8, and 7.5) and elevated temperature (33°C). After 10 days of incubation, corals had not bleached, as protein, chlorophyll, and zooxanthellae contents were the same in all treatments. However, photosynthetic rates significantly decreased at 33°C, and were further reduced for the pH_T 7.5. The photosynthetic efficiency of PSII was only decreased by elevated temperature. Nutrient uptake rates were not affected by a change in pH alone. Conversely, elevated temperature (33°C) alone induced an increase in phosphate uptake but a severe decrease in nitrate and ammonium uptake rates, even leading to a release of nitrogen into seawater. Combination of high temperature (33°C) and low pH_T (7.5) resulted in a significant decrease in phosphate and nitrate uptake rates compared to control corals (26°C, pH_T = 8.1). These results indicate that both inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus metabolism may be negatively affected by the cumulative effects of ocean warming and acidification.     

Tropical Fishes Dominate Temperate Reef Fish Communities within Western Japan

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008–2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources.     

Coral growth with thermal stress and ocean acidification: lessons from the eastern tropical Pacific

The rapid growth of scleractinian corals is responsible for the persistence of coral reefs through time. Coral growth rates have declined over the past 30 years in the western Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic Oceans. The spatial scale of this decline has led researchers to suggest that a global phenomenon like ocean acidification may be responsible. A multi-species inventory of coral growth from Pacific Panamá confirms that declines have occurred in some, but not all species. Linear extension declined significantly in the most important reef builder of the eastern tropical Pacific, Pocillopora damicornis, by nearly one-third from 1974 to 2006. The rate of decline in skeletal extension for P. damicornis from Pacific Panamá (0.9% year⁻¹) was nearly identical to massive Porites in the Indo-Pacific over the past 20–30 years (0.89–1.23% year⁻¹). The branching pocilloporid corals have shown an increased tolerance to recurrent thermal stress events in Panamá, but appear to be susceptible to acidification. In contrast, the massive pavonid corals have shown less tolerance to thermal stress, but may be less sensitive to acidification. These differing sensitivities will be a fundamental determinant of eastern tropical Pacific coral reef community structure with accelerating climate change that has implications for the future of reef communities worldwide.     

Projected Near-Future Levels of Temperature and pCO2 Reduce Coral Fertilization Success

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) are projected to contribute to a 1.1–6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14–0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO₂ on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C) and pCO₂ (+400 µatm) projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO₂) and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO₂ narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.     

Coral growth and reef growth: a brief review

The growth potential of modern zooxanthellate corals from the major reef provinces is reviewed with respect to Holocene reef growth. Both coral growth and reef growth is enhanced globally at the beginning of the Holocene and is maintained regionally in the Caribbean Sea up to the present in contrast to reefs of the Indo-Pacific Ocean. This regional difference is mainly caused by the siphoning effect of the tropical Atlantic, which is characterised still by a rising sea level in contrast to global ocean. Hence, Indo-Pacific reefs exhibit a well-cemented reef crest and reef roof barren of living corals. The evaluation of reef growth rates throughout the Phanerozoic shows reduced growth rates of more than one order of magnitude in comparison to their modern counterparts. This is a result of compaction and diagenesis but also strongly biased by uncertainties in absolute dating. Point counting of individual framebuilders with known growth rate may result in more comparative figures for growth rates of fossil reefs with respect to modern ones.     

Corals in the hottest reefs in the world exhibit symbiont fidelity not flexibility

Reef‐building corals are at risk of extinction from ocean warming. While some corals can enhance their thermal limits by associating with dinoflagellate photosymbionts of superior stress tolerance, the extent to which symbiont communities will reorganize under increased warming pressure remains unclear. Here we show that corals in the hottest reefs in the world in the Persian Gulf maintain associations with the same symbionts across 1.5 years despite extreme seasonal warming and acute heat stress (≥35°C). Persian Gulf corals predominantly associated with Cladocopium (clade C) and most also hosted Symbiodinium (clade A) and/or Durusdinium (clade D). This is in contrast to the neighbouring and milder Oman Sea, where corals associated with Durusdinium and only a minority hosted background levels of Cladocopium. During acute heat stress, the higher prevalence of Symbiodinium and Durusdinium in bleached versus nonbleached Persian Gulf corals indicates that genotypes of these background genera did not confer bleaching resistance. Within symbiont genera, the majority of ITS2 rDNA type profiles were unique to their respective coral species, confirming the existence of host‐specific symbiont lineages. Notably, further differentiation among Persian Gulf sites demonstrates that symbiont populations are either isolated or specialized over tens to hundreds of kilometres. Thermal tolerance across coral species was associated with the prevalence of a single ITS2 intragenomic sequence variant (C3gulf), definitive of the Cladocopium thermophilum group. The abundance of C3gulf was highest in bleaching‐resistant corals and at warmer sites, potentially indicating a specific symbiont genotype (or set of genotypes) that may play a role in thermal tolerance that warrants further investigation. Together, our findings indicate that co‐evolution of host–Symbiodiniaceae partnerships favours fidelity rather than flexibility in extreme environments and under future warming.     

Threatened Caribbean Coral Is Able to Mitigate the Adverse Effects of Ocean Acidification on Calcification by Increasing Feeding Rate

Global climate change threatens coral growth and reef ecosystem health via ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). Whereas the negative impacts of these stressors are increasingly well-documented, studies identifying pathways to resilience are still poorly understood. Heterotrophy has been shown to help corals experiencing decreases in growth due to either thermal or OA stress; however, the mechanism by which it mitigates these decreases remains unclear. This study tested the ability of coral heterotrophy to mitigate reductions in growth due to climate change stress in the critically endangered Caribbean coral Acropora cervicornis via changes in feeding rate and lipid content. Corals were either fed or unfed and exposed to elevated temperature (30°C), enriched pCO₂ (800 ppm), or both (30°C/800 ppm) as compared to a control (26°C/390 ppm) for 8 weeks. Feeding rate and lipid content both increased in corals experiencing OA vs. present-day conditions, and were significantly correlated. Fed corals were able to maintain ambient growth rates at both elevated temperature and elevated CO₂, while unfed corals experienced significant decreases in growth with respect to fed conspecifics. Our results show for the first time that a threatened coral species can buffer OA-reduced calcification by increasing feeding rates and lipid content.     

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

A rapid increase in sea-level rise is generating vertical accommodation space on modern coral reefs. Yet increases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are reducing the capacity of coral reefs to keep up with sea-level rise. We use ensemble species distribution models of four coral species (Porites rus, Porites lobata, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera) to gauge potential geographic differences in gross carbonate production. Net carbonate production was estimated by considering erosional rates of ocean acidification, increasing cyclone intensity, local pollution, fishing pressure and the projected burdens of increases in SSTs (under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) through to the year 2100. Our models predict that only 4 ± 0.1% (~60 000 km²) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs are projected to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 – most of which will be located near the Equator. However, with drastic reductions in emissions (under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 Wm⁻²), we predict that 15 ± 0.3% (~250 000 km²) (under RCP 4.5 Wm⁻²) and 12 ± 0.7% (~200 000 km²) (under RCP 6.0 Wm⁻²) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs, have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100. Yet the burdens of fishing pressure and its cascading effects are projected to be responsible for substantial reef erosion, nearly halving the number of reefs able to keep up with sea-level rise. If action is taken immediately and emissions are drastically reduced to RCPs 4.5 or 6.0 Wm⁻², and reef management reduces the burdens of local pollution and fishing pressure, then our model predicts that 21–27% (~350 000–470 000 km²) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs – most of which will be located near the Equator – would have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100.     

Experimental responses to elevated water temperature in genotypes of the reef coral<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Pocillopora damicornis</Emphasis> from upwelling and non-upwelling environments in Panama

The authors investigated the response to experimentally elevated water temperature in genotypes of Pocillopora damicornis from three coral reefs in the upwelling Gulf of Panama and four coral reefs in the non-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí, Panamanian Pacific. Sea-surface temperature in the Gulf of Panama declines below 20 °C during seasonal upwelling, while in the thermally stable Gulf of Chiriquí, the temperature ranges from 27 to 29 °C. Genotypes of P. damicornis from the seven locations were determined by allozyme electrophoresis. The most abundant genotype at each location was selected for a thermal tolerance experiment where corals were exposed to water temperature of 30 °C (1 °C above ambient) for 43 days. Four site coral genotypes can be uniquely differentiated by the GPI locus, two by the LGG-2 locus, and two by a combination of the MDH-1, LGG-2, and LTY-3 loci. A visual assessment of the coral condition after exposure to an elevated temperature showed that corals from localities in the non-upwelling environment retained a normal to slightly pale appearance, while corals from the upwelling environment bleached and their polyps were mostly retracted. A two-way ANOVA confirmed that corals were significantly affected by water temperature and locality. The zooxanthellae were also significantly affected by the interaction of elevated temperature and locality of the corals. Mean zooxanthellae density decreased by 25 and 55%, respectively, in experimentally heated corals from the non-upwelling and upwelling environments. Low concentrations of photosynthetic pigments per live area of the corals were the norm in corals under elevated temperature. The mean concentration of chlorophyll a per live area of the corals was reduced by 17 and 49%, respectively, in heated corals from the non-upwelling and upwelling sites. Coral genotypes from the upwelling Gulf of Panama demonstrated higher vulnerability to thermal stress than coral genotypes from the non-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí. However, the latter showed greater differences in their responses. Thus, even at small geographic scales, corals can display different levels of tolerance to thermal stress. The difference in thermal tolerance between corals from upwelling and non-upwelling environments is concomitant with greater genetic differences in experimental corals from the thermally stable Gulf of Chiriquí compared with corals from the upwelling Gulf of Panama.Communicated by K.S. Sealey