Human plague in the USA: the importance of regional and local climate

A 56-year time series of human plague cases (Yersinia pestis) in the western United States was used to explore the effects of climatic patterns on plague levels. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), together with previous plague levels and above-normal temperatures, explained much of the plague variability. We propose that the PDO's impact on plague is conveyed via its effect on precipitation and temperature and the effect of precipitation and temperature on plague hosts and vectors: warmer and wetter climate leading to increased plague activity and thus an increased number of human cases. Our analysis furthermore provides insights into the consistency of plague mechanisms at larger scales.     

Ecological characteristics of flea species relate to their suitability as plague vectors

The ability of vector-borne diseases to persist and spread is closely linked to the ecological characteristics of the vector species they use. Yet there have been no investigations of how species used as vectors by pathogens such as the plague bacterium differ from closely related species that are not used as vectors. The plague bacterium uses mammals as reservoir hosts and fleas as vectors. The ability of different fleas to serve as vectors is assumed to depend on how likely they are to experience gut blockage following bacterial multiplication; the blockage causes fleas to regurgitate blood into a wound and thus inject bacteria into new hosts. Beyond these physiological differences, it is unclear whether there exist fundamental ecological differences between fleas that are effective vectors and those that are not. Here, using a comparative analysis, we identify clear associations between the ability of flea species to transmit plague and their ecological characteristics. First, there is a positive relationship between the abundance of flea species on their hosts and their potential as vectors. Second, although the number of host species exploited by a flea is not associated with its potential as a vector, there is a negative relationship between the ability of fleas to transmit plague and the taxonomic diversity of their host spectrum. This suggests a correlation between some ecological characteristics of fleas and their ability to develop the plague blockage. The plague pathogen thus uses mainly abundant fleas specialized on a narrow taxonomic range of mammals, features that should maximize the persistence of the disease in the face of high flea mortality, and its transmission to suitable hosts only. This previously unrecognized pattern of vector use is of importance for the persistence and transmission of the disease.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available to authorised users in the online version of this article at .     

中国云南部分人间鼠疫流行区蚤类区系调查(英文)

归纳了中国云南 13个人间鼠疫流行区的调查资料 ,对调查疫区的蚤类区系进行了研究。总计捕获12 0 77只小兽 ,隶属啮齿目、食虫目及攀目 3个目中的 9科、2 9属、4 7种。从小兽体表共采获 9369只蚤 ,经分类鉴定 ,隶属 5科、18属、33种。 33种蚤及 4 7种小兽宿主均按其分类阶元详细列于文末。结果表明 ,山区蚤及小兽宿主的种数明显多于坝区。坝区农耕地的优势种相对简单 ,优势种地位突出 ,黄胸鼠及印鼠客蚤分别是最重要的宿主及蚤种 (构成比分别为 83 2 7%和 75 32 % )。山区的优势种相对较复杂 ,优势种的种类较多 ,但其构成比较低 ( 10 96%～ 4 7 95% )。黄胸鼠及绒鼠为山区地带的两种优势宿主 ,缓慢细蚤、端凹栉眼蚤、印鼠客蚤、偏远古蚤及短突栉眼蚤为山区地带的 5种优势蚤种。多数蚤种可寄生两种以上的小兽宿主 ,但其所寄生的主要宿主并不多。结果提示 ,作为疫区主要媒介的印鼠客蚤及其所对应的主要寄生宿主 (黄胸鼠 )在坝区突出的优势种地位 ,似可解释近年疫区的鼠疫病人主要出现在坝区的原因     

Modeling plague persistence in host-vector communities in California

Plague is an enzootic disease in the western United States, even though long-term persistent infections do not seem to occur. Enzootic persistence may occur as a function of dynamic interactions between flea vectors and transiently infected hosts, but the specific levels of vector competence, host competence, and transmission and recovery rates that would promote persistence and emergence among wild hosts and vectors are not known. We developed a mathematical model of enzootic plague in the western United States and implemented the model with the following objectives: 1) to use matrix manipulation within a classic susceptible-->infective-->resistant-->susceptible (SIRS) model framework to describe transmission of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis among rodents and fleas in California, 2) to perform sensitivity analysis with model parameters and variables to indicate which values tended to dominate model output, and 3) to determine whether enzootic maintenance would be predicted with realistic parameter values obtained from the literature for Y. pestis in California rodents and fleas. The model PlagueSIRS was implemented in discrete time as a computer simulation incorporating environmental stochasticity and seasonality, by using matrix functions in the computer language R, allowing any number of rodent and flea species to interact through parasitism and disease transmission. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was sensitive to flea attack rate, host recovery rate, and rodent host carrying capacity but relatively insensitive to changes in the duration of latent infection in the flea, host and vector competence, flea recovery from infection, and host mortality attributable to plague. Realistic parameters and variable values did allow for the model to predict enzootic plague in some combinations, specifically when rodent species that were susceptible to infection but resistant to morbidity were parasitized by multiple poorly competent flea species, including some that were present year-round. This model could be extended to similar vectorborne disease systems and could be used iteratively with data collection in sylvatic plague studies to better understand plague persistence and emergence in nature.     

Sylvatic plague management and prairie dogs – a meta‐analysis

Yersinia pestis, a bacterial pathogen that causes sylvatic plague, is present in the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) of North America. Epizootics of sylvatic plague through transmission in vectors (fleas) commonly completely extirpate colonies of prairie dogs. Wildlife managers employ a wide variety of insecticidal treatments to suppress plague and conserve prairie dog colonies. I compiled and statistically compared the available literature describing methods of plague control and their relative effectiveness in managing plague outbreaks by using meta‐analyses. Natural log response ratios were used to calculate insecticide‐induced vector mortality and vaccine‐conferred survival increases in prairie dogs in 37 publications. Further, subgroupings were used to explore the most effective of the available vector suppression insecticides and plague suppression vaccines. After accounting for the type of treatment used and the method by which it was applied, I observed plague reduction through use of both insecticides and vaccines. Insecticides resulted in a significant reduction of the abundance of vectors by 91.34% compared to non‐treated hosts (p<0.0001). Vaccines improved survival of prairie dog hosts by 4.00% (p<0.0001) compared to control populations. The use of insecticides such as deltamethrin and carbaryl is recommended to stop actively spreading epizootics, and dual antigen oral vaccines to initially suppress outbreaks.     

Population ecology and spatial synchrony in the abundance of leaf gall wasps within and among populations of valley oak (Quercus lobata)

What factors drive population variability through space and time? Here we assess patterns of abundance of seven species of gall wasps in three genera occurring on the leaves of valley oaks (Quercus lobata) at 10 sites throughout this species' statewide range in California, from 2000 to 2006. Our primary goals were to understand the factors driving variability in gall abundance and to assess the extent of spatial synchrony in gall wasp communities at both large and small geographic scales. On the large, statewide scale, there was significant site-to-site variation in gall abundance, driven in all cases primarily by differences in mean maximum seasonal temperatures, and lesser year-to-year variation. In contrast, on the small, local scale, differences were more pronounced from year to year than from tree to tree, and were to some extent correlated with differences in acorn production, suggesting an interaction with the reproductive effort of hosts. Significant spatial synchrony was detected, particularly at the statewide scale, but in no case did synchrony decline significantly with distance, despite sites being up to 741 km apart. Variation in spatial synchrony was correlated with a number of exogenous factors, including seasonal weather conditions, the acorn crop at the statewide scale and soil phosphorus availability at the local scale; however, most variation in spatial synchrony in our analyses remained unexplained.     

The role of recruitment in structuring patterns of small-scale spatial variability in intertidal and subtidal algal turfs

Recruitment is often important in structuring patterns of distribution and abundance of algal assemblages. Intertidal and subtidal turfing algal assemblages consistently vary on small spatial scales (tens of centimetres), and this variability may be due to patterns of recruitment varying on similar spatial scales. The validity of this model was evaluated by testing the hypothesis that the numbers and types of taxa recruiting to turfs would vary at small spatial scales within intertidal and within subtidal habitats. Abundances of algal recruits were estimated on sandstone plates that were placed at a number of spatial scales within intertidal and within subtidal habitats (centimetres to tens of metres). Significant differences in entire assemblages were found only between habitats. This was explained by abundances of individual taxa, which generally varied between intertidal and subtidal habitats or between sites within habitats. Only small proportions of the overall spatial variation (dissimilarity) could be explained at the scale of replicate recruitment plates that were centimetres apart. Results indicate that while recruitment may contribute to differences between intertidal and subtidal habitats, it cannot explain the small-scale spatial variability in established turfing algal assemblages within these habitats. There was some evidence to suggest that recruitment may contribute to variability in established turfing algal assemblages but only over longer time scales than examined here.     

The Deer Mouse (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Peromyscus maniculatus</Emphasis>) as an Enzootic Reservoir of Plague in California

It has long been theorized that deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are a primary reservoir of Yersinia pestis in California. However, recent research from other parts of the western USA has implicated deer mice as spillover hosts during epizootic plague transmission. This retrospective study analyzed deer mouse data collected for plague surveillance by public health agencies in California from 1971 to 2016 to help elucidate the role of deer mice in plague transmission. The fleas most commonly found on deer mice were poor vectors of Y. pestis and occurred in insufficient numbers to maintain transmission of the pathogen, while fleas whose natural hosts are deer mice were rarely observed and even more rarely found infected with Y. pestis on other rodent hosts. Seroprevalence of Y. pestis antibodies in deer mice was significantly lower than that of several chipmunk and squirrel species. These analyses suggest that it is unlikely that deer mice play an important role in maintaining plague transmission in California. While they may not be primary reservoirs, results supported the premise that deer mice are occasionally exposed to and infected by Y. pestis and instead may be spillover hosts.     

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) identification of rodent blood meals confirms host sharing by flea vectors of plague

Elucidating feeding relationships between hosts and parasites remains a significant challenge in studies of the ecology of infectious diseases, especially those involving small or cryptic vectors. Black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a species of conservation importance in the North American Great Plains whose populations are extirpated by plague, a flea‐vectored, bacterial disease. Using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays, we determined that fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta) associated with prairie dogs feed upon northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster), a rodent that has been implicated in the transmission and maintenance of plague in prairie‐dog colonies. Our results definitively show that grasshopper mice not only share fleas with prairie dogs during plague epizootics, but also provide them with blood meals, offering a mechanism by which the pathogen, Yersinia pestis, may be transmitted between host species and maintained between epizootics. The lack of identifiable host DNA in a significant fraction of engorged Oropsylla hirsuta collected from animals (47%) and prairie‐dog burrows (100%) suggests a rapid rate of digestion and feeding that may facilitate disease transmission during epizootics but also complicate efforts to detect feeding on alternative hosts. Combined with other analytical approaches, e.g., stable isotope analysis, molecular genetic techniques can provide novel insights into host‐parasite feeding relationships and improve our understanding of the role of alternative hosts in the transmission and maintenance of disease.     

Impact of forest size on parasite biodiversity: implications for conservation of hosts and parasites

Studies of biodiversity traditionally focus on charismatic megafauna. By comparison, little is known about parasite biodiversity. Recent studies suggest that co-extinction of host specific parasites with their hosts should be common and that parasites may even go extinct before their hosts. The few studies examining the relationship between parasite diversity and habitat quality have focused on parasites that require intermediate hosts and pathogens that require vectors to complete their life-cycles. Declines in parasite and pathogen richness in these systems could be due to the decline of any of the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, or vectors. Here we focus on avian ectoparasites, primarily lice, which are host specific parasites with simple, direct, life-cycles. By focusing on these parasites we gain a clearer understanding of how parasites are linked to their hosts and their hosts’ environment. We compare parasite richness on birds from fragmented forests in southern China. We show that parasite richness correlates with forest size, even among birds that are locally common. The absence of some ectoparasite genera in small forests suggests that parasites can go locally extinct even if their hosts persist. Our data suggest that the conservation of parasite biodiversity may require preservation of habitat fragments that are sufficiently large to maintain parasite populations, not just their host populations.     

Sylvatic plague reduces genetic variability in black-tailed prairie dogs

Small, isolated populations are vulnerable to loss of genetic diversity through in-breeding and genetic drift. Sylvatic plague due to infection by the bacterium Yersinia pestis caused an epizootic in the early 1990s resullting in declines and extirpations of many black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in north-central Montana, USA. Plague-induced population bottlenecks may contribute to significant reductions in genetic variability. In contrast, gene flow maintains genetic variability within colonies. We investigated the impacts of the plague epizootic and distance to nearest colony on levels of genetic variability in six prairie dog colonies sampled between June 1999 and July 2001 using 24 variable randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers. Number of effective alleles per locus (n(e)) and gene diversity (h) were significantly decreased in the three colonies affected by plague that were recovering from the resulting bottlenecks compared with the three colonies that did not experience plague. Genetic variability was not significantly affected by geographic distance between colonies. The majority of variance in gene fieqnencies was found within prairie clog colonies. Conservation of genetic variability in black-tailed prairie dogs will require the preservation of both large and small colony complexes and the gene flow amonog them.     

Prairie dog presence affects occurrence patterns of disease vectors on small mammals

Wildlife disease is recognized as a burgeoning threat to imperiled species and aspects of host and vector community ecology have been shown to have significant effects on disease dynamics. The black‐tailed prairie dog is a species of conservation concern that is highly susceptible to plague, a flea‐transmitted disease. Prairie dogs (Cynomys) alter the grassland communities in which they exist and have been shown to affect populations of small rodents, which are purported disease reservoirs. To explore potential ecological effects of black‐tailed prairie dogs on plague dynamics, we quantified flea occurrence patterns on small mammals in the presence and absence of prairie dogs at 8 study areas across their geographic range. Small mammals sampled from prairie dog colonies showed significantly higher flea prevalence, flea abundance, and relative flea species richness than those sampled from off‐colony sites. Successful plague transmission likely is dependent on high prevalence and abundance of fleas that can serve as competent vectors. Prairie dogs may therefore facilitate the maintenance of plague by increasing flea occurrence on potential plague reservoir species. Our data demonstrate the previously unreported ecological influence of prairie dogs on vector species assemblages, which could influence disease dynamics.     

Transmission of crayfish plague

Two possible means of transmission of crayfish plague were investigated: via fish (as vectors), and via crayfish (as hosts or vectors when dead). The crayfish transmission experiments focussed on both the viability of the fungus in dead crayfish when kept in simulated field conditions, and on the treatments which kill viable forms of Aphanomyces astaci within the recently dead host (cadaver). It was found that A. astaci remains viable for 5 d, and possibly longer in crayfish kept in water at 21 degrees C after dying of crayfish plague. Heating (boiling for 1 min) was the quickest way of decontaminating crayfish cadavers. Freezing took considerably longer: after 48 h at -20 degrees C, viable stages were still present. It was also found that A. astaci is unlikely to survive passage of the gastrointestinal tract of either mammals or birds as no viable stages were found after 12 h at 37 degrees C. Two basic modes of transmission of crayfish plague via fish were investigated: (1) after passage of initially viable forms of A. astaci through the digestive tract of fish and (2) via fish skin. If A. astaci was fed to fish as infected abdominal cuticle, it was still viable after passage through the gastrointestinal tract. When pure mycelium or spores were fed to fish there was no indication of viable forms of A. astaci after passage through the gastrointestinal tract. Transmission via fish skin was not observed under the experimental conditions applied. The results on fish as vectors have practical importance for fish transport and stocking because the present study shows that there is a risk of transmission of crayfish plague via fish faeces. The investigation of crayfish as vectors delivers methods that could be used for treatment of crayfish imported for human consumption into crayfish-plague-free areas. This application is particularly important for the importation of American crayfish, which are in general suspected to carry A. astaci in their cuticle.     

Deltamethrin flea-control preserves genetic variability of black-tailed prairie dogs during a plague outbreak

Genetic variability and structure of nine black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies were estimated with 15 unlinked microsatellite markers. A plague epizootic occurred between the first and second years of sampling and our study colonies were nearly extirpated with the exception of three colonies in which prairie dog burrows were previously dusted with an insecticide, deltamethrin, used to control fleas (vectors of the causative agent of plague, Yersinia pestis). This situation provided context to compare genetic variability and structure among dusted and non-dusted colonies pre-epizootic, and among the three dusted colonies pre- and post-epizootic. We found no statistical difference in population genetic structures between dusted and non-dusted colonies pre-epizootic. On dusted colonies, gene flow and recent migration rates increased from the first (pre-epizootic) year to the second (post-epizootic) year which suggested dusted colonies were acting as refugia for prairie dogs from surrounding colonies impacted by plague. Indeed, in the dusted colonies, estimated densities of adult prairie dogs (including dispersers), but not juveniles (non-dispersers), increased from the first year to the second year. In addition to preserving BTPDs and many species that depend on them, protecting colonies with deltamethrin or a plague vaccine could be an effective method to preserve genetic variability of prairie dogs.     

Colorado animal‐based plague surveillance systems: relationships between targeted animal species and prediction efficacy of areas at risk for humans

Human plague risks (Yersinia pestis infection) are greatest when epizootics cause high mortality among this bacterium's natural rodent hosts. Therefore, health departments in plague‐endemic areas commonly establish animal‐based surveillance programs to monitor Y. pestis infection among plague hosts and vectors. The primary objectives of our study were to determine whether passive animal‐based plague surveillance samples collected in Colorado from 1991 to 2005 were sampled from high human plague risk areas and whether these samples provided information useful for predicting human plague case locations. By comparing locations of plague‐positive animal samples with a previously constructed GIS‐based plague risk model, we determined that the majority of plague‐positive Gunnison's prairie dogs (100%) and non‐prairie dog sciurids (85.82%), and moderately high percentages of sigmodontine rodents (71.4%), domestic cats (69.3%), coyotes (62.9%), and domestic dogs (62.5%) were recovered within 1 km of the nearest area posing high peridomestic risk to humans. In contrast, the majority of white‐tailed prairie dog (66.7%), leporid (cottontailed and jack rabbits) (71.4%), and black‐tailed prairie dog (93.0%) samples originated more than 1 km from the nearest human risk habitat. Plague‐positive animals or their fleas were rarely (one of 19 cases) collected within 2 km of a case exposure site during the 24 months preceding the dates of illness onset for these cases. Low spatial accuracy for identifying epizootic activity prior to human plague cases suggested that other mammalian species or their fleas are likely more important sources of human infection in high plague risk areas. To address this issue, epidemiological observations and multi‐locus variable number tandem repeat analyses (MLVA) were used to preliminarily identify chipmunks as an under‐sampled, but potentially important, species for human plague risk in Colorado.     

Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks

In central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the main host for the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it is known that gerbil densities need to exceed a threshold level for plague to persist, synchrony in gerbil abundance across large geographical areas is likely to be a condition for plague outbreaks at similar large scales. Here, we substantiate this proposition through autoregressive modelling involving the normalized differentiated vegetation index as a forcing covariate. Based upon predicted climate changes, our study suggests that during the next century, plague epizootics may become more frequent in central Asia.     

Sex ratios in field populations of Epidinocarsis lopezi, an exotic parasitoid of the cassava mealybug, in Africa

Abstract.

• 1 In cassava fields in Africa, population sex ratios of Epidinocarsis fopezi vaned from 0.44 (males to total parasitoids) at low host densities to highly male-biased ratios of 0.70 at high host densities.
• 2 This variability is caused by the difference in allocation of sons and daughters to hosts of different sizes, through the following mechanisms: (a) small, i.e. second instar, hosts are mainly used for the production of male offspring, whereas in large, i.e. third instar, hosts a variable, female-biased sex ratio is produced; (b) E.fopezi does not selectively oviposit into large hosts but always accepts both small and large hosts for oviposition upon encountering; (c) in the field, this parasitoid is time-limited, and not egg-limited. On the basis of an optimal diet model, such general host acceptance is shown to be the best strategy.
• 3 Thus, sex ratio increases with host density for three reasons: the proportion of small hosts encountered in the field increases with increasing host density, small hosts are used for male production, and hosts are always accepted when encountered.

     

Native communities determine the identity of exotic invaders even at scales at which communities are unsaturated

Aim To determine why some communities are more invasible than others and how this depends on spatial scale. Our previous work in serpentine ecosystems showed that native and exotic diversity are negatively correlated at small scales, but became positively correlated at larger scales. We hypothesized that this pattern was the result of classic niche partitioning at small scales where the environment is homogeneous, and a shift to the dominance of coexistence mechanisms that depend on spatial heterogeneity in the environment at large scales. Location Serpentine ecosystem, Northern California. Methods We test the above hypotheses using the phylogenetic relatedness of natives and exotics. We hypothesized that (1) at small scales, native and exotic species should be more distantly related than expected from a random assemblage model because with biotic resistance, successful invaders should have niches that are different from those of the natives present and (2) at large scales, native and exotic species should not be more distantly related than expected. Result We find strong support for the first hypothesis providing further evidence of biotic resistance at small scales. However, at large scales, native and exotic species were also more distantly related than expected. Importantly, however, natives and exotics were more distantly related at small scales than they were at large scales, suggesting that in the transition from small to large scales, biotic resistance is relaxed but still present. Communities at large scales were not saturated in the sense that more species could enter the community, increasing species richness. However, species did not invade indiscriminately. Exotic species closely related to species already established the community were excluded. Main conclusions Native communities determine the identity of exotic invaders even at large spatial scales where communities are unsaturated. These results hold promise for predicting which species will invade a community given the species present.     

Microsatellite and morphological analysis of population structure in the parthenogenetic freshwater snail Melanoides tuberculata: insights into the creation of clonal variability

The distribution of variability was studied at various geographical scales in the tropical freshwater snail Melanoides tuberculata, in order to analyse the role of factors shaping this distribution, including the mating system and population dynamics. This parthenogenetic polyploid species reproduces mainly asexually, with males occurring at low frequency. About 800 individuals (38 sites) were sampled from Africa and the Middle East, where the species originated, and from recently colonized habitats in South and Central America, and especially the island of Martinique. We first described variation of general aspects and ornamentation of the shells. This analysis confirms the existence of discrete morphs. Second, individuals were studied at three microsatellite loci, showing that each morph is a genetic clone with some minor variation compatible with models of microsatellite evolution. The genetic analysis also showed much more variation within than between clones. However, two populations from Africa exhibited a large amount of variability, and a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction might explain these genetic patterns. The worldwide distribution of variability is, therefore, compatible with the African origin of the species, and the introduction of a few clones in other parts of the world. These results also suggest that the distribution of variability in Martinique is influenced by flooding events, and that two morphs from Martinique can be interpreted as hybrids between two pre-existing morphs, based on morphological, genetic and geographical arguments.     

Does environmental heterogeneity drive functional trait variation? A test in montane and alpine meadows

While community‐weighted means of plant traits have been linked to mean environmental conditions at large scales, the drivers of trait variation within communities are not well understood. Local environmental heterogeneity (such as microclimate variability), in addition to mean environmental conditions, may decrease the strength of environmental filtering and explain why communities support different amounts of trait variation. Here, we assess two hypotheses: first, that more heterogeneous local environments and second, that less extreme environments, should support a broader range of plant strategies and thus higher trait variation. We quantified drivers of trait variation across a range of environmental conditions and spatial scales ranging from sub‐meter to tens of kilometers in montane and alpine plant communities. We found that, within communities, both environmental heterogeneity and environmental means are drivers of trait variation. However, the importance of each environmental factor varied depending on the trait. Our results indicate that larger‐scale trait–climate linkages that hold across communities also apply at small spatial scales, suggesting that microclimate variation within communities is a key driver of community functional diversity. Microclimatic variation provides a potential mechanism for helping to maintain diversity in local communities and also suggests that small‐scale environmental heterogeneity should be measured as a better predictor of functional diversity.