Small angle X-ray scattering-assisted protein structure prediction in CASP13 and emergence of solution structure differences

Small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) measures comprehensive distance information on a protein's structure, which can constrain and guide computational structure prediction algorithms. Here, we evaluate structure predictions of 11 monomeric and oligomeric proteins for which SAXS data were collected and provided to predictors in the 13th round of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP13). The category for SAXS-assisted predictions made gains in certain areas for CASP13 compared to CASP12. Improvements included higher quality data with size exclusion chromatography-SAXS (SEC-SAXS) and better selection of targets and communication of results by CASP organizers. In several cases, we can track improvements in model accuracy with use of SAXS data. For hard multimeric targets where regular folding algorithms were unsuccessful, SAXS data helped predictors to build models better resembling the global shape of the target. For most models, however, no significant improvement in model accuracy at the domain level was registered from use of SAXS data, when rigorously comparing SAXS-assisted models to the best regular server predictions. To promote future progress in this category, we identify successes, challenges, and opportunities for improved strategies in prediction, assessment, and communication of SAXS data to predictors. An important observation is that, for many targets, SAXS data were inconsistent with crystal structures, suggesting that these proteins adopt different conformation(s) in solution. This CASP13 result, if representative of PDB structures and future CASP targets, may have substantive implications for the structure training databases used for machine learning, CASP, and use of prediction models for biology.     

Predicted residue–residue contacts can help the scoring of 3D models

During the 7th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP7) experiment, it was suggested that the real value of predicted residue–residue contacts might lie in the scoring of 3D model structures. Here, we have carried out a detailed reassessment of the contact predictions made during the recent CASP8 experiment to determine whether predicted contacts might aid in the selection of close‐to‐native structures or be a useful tool for scoring 3D structural models. We used the contacts predicted by the CASP8 residue–residue contact prediction groups to select models for each target domain submitted to the experiment. We found that the information contained in the predicted residue–residue contacts would probably have helped in the selection of 3D models in the free modeling regime and over the harder comparative modeling targets. Indeed, in many cases, the models selected using just the predicted contacts had better GDT‐TS scores than all but the best 3D prediction groups. Despite the well‐known low accuracy of residue–residue contact predictions, it is clear that the predictive power of contacts can be useful in 3D model prediction strategies. Proteins 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

miREE: miRNA recognition elements ensemble

Background

The accurate prediction of ligand binding residues from amino acid sequences is important for the automated functional annotation of novel proteins. In the previous two CASP experiments, the most successful methods in the function prediction category were those which used structural superpositions of 3D models and related templates with bound ligands in order to identify putative contacting residues. However, whilst most of this prediction process can be automated, visual inspection and manual adjustments of parameters, such as the distance thresholds used for each target, have often been required to prevent over prediction. Here we describe a novel method FunFOLD, which uses an automatic approach for cluster identification and residue selection. The software provided can easily be integrated into existing fold recognition servers, requiring only a 3D model and list of templates as inputs. A simple web interface is also provided allowing access to non-expert users. The method has been benchmarked against the top servers and manual prediction groups tested at both CASP8 and CASP9.

Results

The FunFOLD method shows a significant improvement over the best available servers and is shown to be competitive with the top manual prediction groups that were tested at CASP8. The FunFOLD method is also competitive with both the top server and manual methods tested at CASP9. When tested using common subsets of targets, the predictions from FunFOLD are shown to achieve a significantly higher mean Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) scores and Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) scores than all server methods that were tested at CASP8. Testing on the CASP9 set showed no statistically significant separation in performance between FunFOLD and the other top server groups tested.

Conclusions

The FunFOLD software is freely available as both a standalone package and a prediction server, providing competitive ligand binding site residue predictions for expert and non-expert users alike. The software provides a new fully automated approach for structure based function prediction using 3D models of proteins.     

Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14

Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep-learning and residue-residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system by incorporating three new components: (a) a new deep learning-based protein inter-residue distance predictor to improve template-free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (b) an enhanced template-based tertiary structure prediction method, and (c) distance-based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked seventh out of 146 predictors in tertiary structure prediction and ranked third out of 136 predictors in inter-domain structure prediction. The results demonstrate that the template-free modeling based on deep learning and residue-residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template-based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template-free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. Moreover, the template-free modeling performs better than the template-based modeling on not only hard targets but also the targets that have homologous templates. The performance of the template-free modeling largely depends on the accuracy of distance prediction closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works well on targets for which enough good models can be predicted, but it may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed. MULTICOM is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/MULTICOM_Human_CASP14/tree/CASP14_DeepRank3 and https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .     

An information measure of the quality of protein secondary structure prediction.

We describe an information-theory-based measure of the quality of secondary structure prediction (RELINFO). RELINFO has a simple yet intuitive interpretation: it represents the factor by which secondary structure choice at a residue has been restricted by a prediction scheme. As an alternative interpretation of secondary structure prediction, RELINFO complements currently used methods by providing an information-based view as to why a prediction succeeds and fails. To demonstrate this score's capabilities, we applied RELINFO to an analysis of a large set of secondary structure predictions obtained from the first five rounds of the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment. RELINFO is compared with two other common measures: percent correct (Q3) and secondary structure overlap (SOV). While the correlation between Q3 and RELINFO is approximately 0.85, RELINFO avoids certain disadvantages of Q3, including overestimating the quality of a prediction. The correlation between SOV and RELINFO is approximately 0.75. The valuable SOV measure unfortunately suffers from a saturation problem, and perhaps has unfairly given the general impression that secondary structure prediction has reached its limit since SOV hasn't improved much over the recent rounds of CASP. Although not a replacement for SOV, RELINFO has greater dispersion. Over the five rounds of CASP assessed here, RELINFO shows that predictions targets have been more difficult in successive CASP experiments, yet the predictions quality has continued to improve measurably over each round. In terms of information, the secondary structure prediction quality has almost doubled from CASP1 to CASP5. Therefore, as a different perspective of accuracy, RELINFO can help to improve prediction of protein secondary structure by providing a measure of difficulty as well as final quality of a prediction.     

Introducing “best single template” models as reference baseline for the Continuous Automated Model Evaluation (CAMEO)

Critical blind assessment of structure prediction techniques is crucial for the scientific community to establish the state of the art, identify bottlenecks, and guide future developments. In Critical Assessment of Techniques in Structure Prediction (CASP), human experts assess the performance of participating methods in relation to the difficulty of the prediction task in a biennial experiment on approximately 100 targets. Yet, the development of automated computational modeling methods requires more frequent evaluation cycles and larger sets of data. The “Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)” platform complements CASP by conducting fully automated blind prediction evaluations based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Each week, CAMEO publishes benchmarking results for predictions corresponding to a set of about 20 targets collected during a 4-day prediction window. CAMEO benchmarking data are generated consistently for all methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to cross-validate their method's performance, and referring to their results in publications. Many successful participants of CASP have used CAMEO—either by directly benchmarking their methods within the system or by comparing their own performance to CAMEO reference data. CAMEO offers a variety of scores reflecting different aspects of structure modeling, for example, binding site accuracy, homo-oligomer interface quality, or accuracy of local model confidence estimates. By introducing the "bestSingleTemplate" method based on structure superpositions as a reference for the accuracy of 3D modeling predictions, CAMEO facilitates objective comparison of techniques and fosters the development of advanced methods.     

New methods for accurate prediction of protein secondary structure.

A primary and a secondary neural network are applied to secondary structure and structural class prediction for a database of 681 non-homologous protein chains. A new method of decoding the outputs of the secondary structure prediction network is used to produce an estimate of the probability of finding each type of secondary structure at every position in the sequence. In addition to providing a reliable estimate of the accuracy of the predictions, this method gives a more accurate Q3 (74.6%) than the cutoff method which is commonly used. Use of these predictions in jury methods improves the Q3 to 74.8%, the best available at present. On a database of 126 proteins commonly used for comparison of prediction methods, the jury predictions are 76.6% accurate. An estimate of the overall Q3 for a given sequence is made by averaging the estimated accuracy of the prediction over all residues in the sequence. As an example, the analysis is applied to the target beta-cryptogein, which was a difficult target for ab initio predictions in the CASP2 study; it shows that the prediction made with the present method (62% of residues correct) is close to the expected accuracy (66%) for this protein. The larger database and use of a new network training protocol also improve structural class prediction accuracy to 86%, relative to 80% obtained previously. Secondary structure content is predicted with accuracy comparable to that obtained with spectroscopic methods, such as vibrational or electronic circular dichroism and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.     

FunFOLDQA: a quality assessment tool for protein-ligand binding site residue predictions

The estimation of prediction quality is important because without quality measures, it is difficult to determine the usefulness of a prediction. Currently, methods for ligand binding site residue predictions are assessed in the function prediction category of the biennial Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment, utilizing the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) metrics. However, the assessment of ligand binding site predictions using such metrics requires the availability of solved structures with bound ligands. Thus, we have developed a ligand binding site quality assessment tool, FunFOLDQA, which utilizes protein feature analysis to predict ligand binding site quality prior to the experimental solution of the protein structures and their ligand interactions. The FunFOLDQA feature scores were combined using: simple linear combinations, multiple linear regression and a neural network. The neural network produced significantly better results for correlations to both the MCC and BDT scores, according to Kendall's τ, Spearman's ρ and Pearson's r correlation coefficients, when tested on both the CASP8 and CASP9 datasets. The neural network also produced the largest Area Under the Curve score (AUC) when Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis was undertaken for the CASP8 dataset. Furthermore, the FunFOLDQA algorithm incorporating the neural network, is shown to add value to FunFOLD, when both methods are employed in combination. This results in a statistically significant improvement over all of the best server methods, the FunFOLD method (6.43%), and one of the top manual groups (FN293) tested on the CASP8 dataset. The FunFOLDQA method was also found to be competitive with the top server methods when tested on the CASP9 dataset. To the best of our knowledge, FunFOLDQA is the first attempt to develop a method that can be used to assess ligand binding site prediction quality, in the absence of experimental data.     

Protein tertiary structure modeling driven by deep learning and contact distance prediction in CASP13

Predicting residue-residue distance relationships (eg, contacts) has become the key direction to advance protein structure prediction since 2014 CASP11 experiment, while deep learning has revolutionized the technology for contact and distance distribution prediction since its debut in 2012 CASP10 experiment. During 2018 CASP13 experiment, we enhanced our MULTICOM protein structure prediction system with three major components: contact distance prediction based on deep convolutional neural networks, distance-driven template-free (ab initio) modeling, and protein model ranking empowered by deep learning and contact prediction. Our experiment demonstrates that contact distance prediction and deep learning methods are the key reasons that MULTICOM was ranked 3rd out of all 98 predictors in both template-free and template-based structure modeling in CASP13. Deep convolutional neural network can utilize global information in pairwise residue-residue features such as coevolution scores to substantially improve contact distance prediction, which played a decisive role in correctly folding some free modeling and hard template-based modeling targets. Deep learning also successfully integrated one-dimensional structural features, two-dimensional contact information, and three-dimensional structural quality scores to improve protein model quality assessment, where the contact prediction was demonstrated to consistently enhance ranking of protein models for the first time. The success of MULTICOM system clearly shows that protein contact distance prediction and model selection driven by deep learning holds the key of solving protein structure prediction problem. However, there are still challenges in accurately predicting protein contact distance when there are few homologous sequences, folding proteins from noisy contact distances, and ranking models of hard targets.     

Assessing the accuracy of contact predictions in CASP13

The accuracy of sequence-based tertiary contact predictions was assessed in a blind prediction experiment at the CASP13 meeting. After 4 years of significant improvements in prediction accuracy, another dramatic advance has taken place since CASP12 was held 2 years ago. The precision of predicting the top L/5 contacts in the free modeling category, where L is the corresponding length of the protein in residues, has exceeded 70%. As a comparison, the best-performing group at CASP12 with a 47% precision would have finished below the top 1/3 of the CASP13 groups. Extensively trained deep neural network approaches dominate the top performing algorithms, which appear to efficiently integrate information on coevolving residues and interacting fragments or possibly utilize memories of sequence similarities and sometimes can deliver accurate results even in the absence of virtually any target specific evolutionary information. If the current performance is evaluated by F-score on L contacts, it stands around 24% right now, which, despite the tremendous impact and advance in improving its utility for structure modeling, also suggests that there is much room left for further improvement.     

Progress in protein structure prediction: assessment of CASP3.

The third comparative assessment of techniques of protein structure prediction (CASP3) was held during 1998. This is a blind trial in which structures are predicted prior to having knowledge of the coordinates, which are then revealed to enable the assessment. Three sections at the meeting evaluated different methodologies - comparative modelling, fold recognition and ab initio methods. For some, but not all of the target coordinates, high quality models were submitted in each of these sections. There have been improvements in prediction techniques since CASP2 in 1996, most notably for ab initio methods.     

Pcons: a neural-network-based consensus predictor that improves fold recognition

During recent years many protein fold recognition methods have been developed, based on different algorithms and using various kinds of information. To examine the performance of these methods several evaluation experiments have been conducted. These include blind tests in CASP/CAFASP, large scale benchmarks, and long-term, continuous assessment with newly solved protein structures. These studies confirm the expectation that for different targets different methods produce the best predictions, and the final prediction accuracy could be improved if the available methods were combined in a perfect manner. In this article a neural-network-based consensus predictor, Pcons, is presented that attempts this task. Pcons attempts to select the best model out of those produced by six prediction servers, each using different methods. Pcons translates the confidence scores reported by each server into uniformly scaled values corresponding to the expected accuracy of each model. The translated scores as well as the similarity between models produced by different servers is used in the final selection. According to the analysis based on two unrelated sets of newly solved proteins, Pcons outperforms any single server by generating approximately 8%-10% more correct predictions. Furthermore, the specificity of Pcons is significantly higher than for any individual server. From analyzing different input data to Pcons it can be shown that the improvement is mainly attributable to measurement of the similarity between the different models. Pcons is freely accessible for the academic community through the protein structure-prediction metaserver at http://bioinfo.pl/meta/.     

Protein model quality assessment prediction by combining fragment comparisons and a consensus C(alpha) contact potential

In this work, we develop a fully automated method for the quality assessment prediction of protein structural models generated by structure prediction approaches such as fold recognition servers, or ab initio methods. The approach is based on fragment comparisons and a consensus C(alpha) contact potential derived from the set of models to be assessed and was tested on CASP7 server models. The average Pearson linear correlation coefficient between predicted quality and model GDT-score per target is 0.83 for the 98 targets, which is better than those of other quality assessment methods that participated in CASP7. Our method also outperforms the other methods by about 3% as assessed by the total GDT-score of the selected top models.     

MetaDisorder: a meta-server for the prediction of intrinsic disorder in proteins

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Intrinsically unstructured proteins (IUPs) lack a well-defined three-dimensional structure. Some of them may assume a locally stable structure under specific conditions, e.g. upon interaction with another molecule, while others function in a permanently unstructured state. The discovery of IUPs challenged the traditional protein structure paradigm, which stated that a specific well-defined structure defines the function of the protein. As of December 2011, approximately 60 methods for computational prediction of protein disorder from sequence have been made publicly available. They are based on different approaches, such as utilizing evolutionary information, energy functions, and various statistical and machine learning methods. RESULTS: Given the diversity of existing intrinsic disorder prediction methods, we decided to test whether it is possible to combine them into a more accurate meta-prediction method. We developed a method based on arbitrarily chosen 13 disorder predictors, in which the final consensus was weighted by the accuracy of the methods. We have also developed a disorder predictor GSmetaDisorder3D that used no third-party disorder predictors, but alignments to known protein structures, reported by the protein fold-recognition methods, to infer the potentially structured and unstructured regions. Following the success of our disorder predictors in the CASP8 benchmark, we combined them into a meta-meta predictor called GSmetaDisorderMD, which was the top scoring method in the subsequent CASP9 benchmark. CONCLUSIONS: A series of disorder predictors described in this article is available as a MetaDisorder web server at http://iimcb.genesilico.pl/metadisorder/. Results are presented both in an easily interpretable, interactive mode and in a simple text format suitable for machine processing.     

Prediction of Protein Structure by Simulating Coarse-grained Folding Pathways: A Preliminary Report

Abstract

A set of software tools designed to study protein structure and kinetics has been developed. The core of these tools is a program called Folding Machine (FM) which is able to generate low resolution folding pathways using modest computational resources. The FM is based on a coarse-grained kinetic ab initio Monte-Carlo sampler that can optionally use information extracted from secondary structure prediction servers or from fragment libraries of local structure. The model underpinning this algorithm contains two novel elements: (a) the conformational space is discretized using the Ramachandran basins defined in the local φ-ψ energy maps; and (b) the solvent is treated implicitly by rescaling the pairwise terms of the non-bonded energy function according to the local solvent environments. The purpose of this hybrid ab initio/knowledge-based approach is threefold: to cover the long time scales of folding, to generate useful 3-dimensional models of protein structures, and to gain insight on the protein folding kinetics. Even though the algorithm is not yet fully developed, it has been used in a recent blind test of protein structure prediction (CASP5). The FM generated models within 6 Å backbone rmsd for fragments of about 60–70 residues of a-helical proteins. For a CASP5 target that turned out to be natively unfolded, the trajectory obtained for this sequence uniquely failed to converge. Also, a new measure to evaluate structure predictions is presented and used along the standard CASP assessment methods. Finally, recent improvements in the prediction of β-sheet structures are briefly described.     

Assessment of protein assembly prediction in CASP13

We present the assembly category assessment in the 13th edition of the CASP community-wide experiment. For the second time, protein assemblies constitute an independent assessment category. Compared to the last edition we see a clear uptake in participation, more oligomeric targets released, and consistent, albeit modest, improvement of the predictions quality. Looking at the tertiary structure predictions, we observe that ignoring the oligomeric state of the targets hinders modeling success. We also note that some contact prediction groups successfully predicted homomeric interfacial contacts, though it appears that these predictions were not used for assembly modeling. Homology modeling with sizeable human intervention appears to form the basis of the assembly prediction techniques in this round of CASP. Future developments should see more integrated approaches where subunits are modeled in the context of the assemblies they form.     

A comprehensive analysis of 40 blind protein structure predictions

Background  

We thoroughly analyse the results of 40 blind predictions for which an experimental answer was made available at the fourth meeting on the critical assessment of protein structure methods (CASP4). Using our comparative modelling and fold recognition methodologies, we made 29 predictions for targets that had sequence identities ranging from 50% to 10% to the nearest related protein with known structure. Using our ab initio methodologies, we made eleven predictions for targets that had no detectable sequence relationships.     

A further leap of improvement in tertiary structure prediction in CASP13 prompts new routes for future assessments

We present our assessment of tertiary structure predictions for hard targets in Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction round 13 (CASP13). The analysis includes (a) assignment and discussion of best models through scores-aided visual inspection of models for each evaluation unit (EU); (b) ranking of predictors resulting from this evaluation and from global scores; and (c) evaluation of progress, state of the art, and current limitations of protein structure prediction. We witness a sizable improvement in tertiary structure prediction building on the progress observed from CASP11 to CASP12, with (a) top models reaching backbone RMSD <3 å for several EUs of size <150 residues, contributed by many groups; (b) at least one model that roughly captures global topology for all EUs, probably unprecedented in this track of CASP; and (c) even quite good models for full, unsplit targets. Better structure predictions are brought about mainly by improved residue-residue contact predictions, and since this CASP also by distance predictions, achieved through state-of-the-art machine learning methods which also progressed to work with slightly shallower alignments compared to CASP12. As we reach a new realm of tertiary structure prediction quality, new directions are proposed and explored for future CASPs: (a) dropping splitting into EUs, (b) rethinking difficulty metrics probably in terms of contact and distance predictions, (c) assessing also side chains for models of high backbone accuracy, and (d) assessing residue-wise and possibly residue-residue quality estimates.