An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients

Background

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032).

Conclusions/Significance

An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.     

Changes in clinical profile, treatment, and mortality in patients hospitalised for acute myocardial infarction between 1985 and 2008

Objectives

To quantify the impact of the implementation of treatment modalities into clinical practice since 1985, on outcome of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI).

Methods

All consecutive patients admitted for STEMI or NSTEMI at the Thoraxcenter between 1985 and 2008 were included. Baseline characteristics, pharmacological and invasive treatment modalities, and survival status were collected. The study population was categorised in three groups of patients: those hospitalised between 1985–1990, 1990–2000, and 2000–2008.

Results

We identified 14,434 patients hospitalised for myocardial infarction (MI). Both STEMI and NSTEMI patients were increasingly treated with the current guideline based therapy. In STEMI, at 30 days following admission, cumulative mortality rate decreased from 17% in 1985–1990 to 13% in 1990–2000, and to 6% in 2000–2008. Adjusted 30-day and three-year mortality in the last period was 80% and 68% lower than in 1985, respectively. In NSTEMI, at 30 days following admission, cumulative mortality rate decreased from 6% in 1985–1990 to 4% in 1990–2000, and to 2% in 2000–2008. Adjusted 30-day and three-year mortality in the last period was 78% and 49% lower than in 1985, respectively. For patients admitted between 2000 and 2008, 3 year survival of STEMI and NSTEMI patients was 87% and 88%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our results indicate substantial improvements in acute- and long-term survival in patients hospitalised for MI, related to improved acute- as well as long-term treatment. Early medical evaluation in suspected MI and intensive early hospital treatment both remain warranted in the future.     

Practice models and challenges in teledermatology: a study of collective experiences from teledermatologists

Background

Despite increasing practice of teledermatology in the U.S., teledermatology practice models and real-world challenges are rarely studied.

Methods

The primary objective was to examine teledermatology practice models and shared challenges among teledermatologists in California, focusing on practice operations, reimbursement considerations, barriers to sustainability, and incentives. We conducted in-depth interviews with teledermatologists that practiced store-and-forward or live-interactive teledermatology from January 1, 2007 through March 30, 2011 in California.

Results

Seventeen teledermatologists from academia, private practice, health maintenance organizations, and county settings participated in the study. Among them, 76% practiced store-and-forward only, 6% practiced live-interactive only, and 18% practiced both modalities. Only 29% received structured training in teledermatology. The average number of years practicing teledermatology was 4.29 years (SD±2.81). Approximately 47% of teledermatologists served at least one Federally Qualified Health Center. Over 75% of patients seen via teledermatology were at or below 200% federal poverty level and usually lived in rural regions without dermatologist access. Practice challenges were identified in the following areas. Teledermatologists faced delays in reimbursements and non-reimbursement of teledermatology services. The primary reason for operational inefficiency was poor image quality and/or inadequate history. Costly and inefficient software platforms and lack of communication with referring providers also presented barriers.

Conclusion

Teledermatology enables underserved populations to access specialty care. Improvements in reimbursement mechanisms, efficient technology platforms, communication with referring providers, and teledermatology training are necessary to support sustainable practices.     

Provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling: increased uptake in two public community health centers in South Africa and implications for scale-up

Background

International guidance recommends the scale up of routinely recommended, offered, and delivered health care provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling (PITC) to increase the proportion of persons who know their HIV status. We compared HIV test uptake under PITC to provider-referral to voluntary counseling and testing (VCT referral) in two primary health centers in South Africa.

Methods

Prior to introducing PITC, clinical providers were instructed to refer systematically selected study participants to VCT. After PITC and HIV rapid test training, providers were asked to recommend, offer and provide HIV testing to study participants during the clinical consultation. Participants were interviewed before and after their consultation to assess their HIV testing experiences.

Results

HIV test uptake increased under PITC (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.71, 4.76), and more patients felt providers answered their questions on HIV (104/141 [74%] versus 73/118 [62%] for VCT referral; p 0.04). After three months, only 4/106 (3.8%) HIV-positive patients had registered for onsite HIV treatment. Providers found PITC useful, but tested very few patients (range 0–15).

Conclusion

PITC increased the uptake of HIV testing compared with referral to onsite VCT, and patients reported a positive response to PITC. However, providing universal PITC will require strong leadership to train and motivate providers, and interventions to link HIV-positive persons to HIV treatment centers.     

Inequalities in stroke patients' management in English public hospitals: a survey on 200,000 patients

Background

According to clinical guidelines, every patient affected by stroke should be given a brain-imaging scan (BIS) - Computerized Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging - immediately after being admitted to hospital.

Aim of the study

To describe the variation in use of BIS among English public hospitals and identify any patient groups being excluded from appropriate care.

Methods

We collected hospital administrative data for all patients admitted to any English public hospital with a principal diagnosis of stroke from 2006 to 2009. We calculated the proportion of patients treated with BIS in the whole sample and after stratification by hospital. We compared hospitals'' performance using funnel plots. We performed a multiple logistic regression analysis using BIS as outcome and age, gender, socio-economic deprivation, and comorbidity as covariates.

Results

In English public hospitals there are about 70,000 emergency admissions for stroke per year. Nationally, only 35% receive a BIS immediately, and only 84% receive it within the admission. There is large variation in the use of BIS for stroke patients among English public hospitals, with some of them approaching the recommended 100% and some having very low rates. Young (P<0.001), male (P = 0.012), and least socio-economically deprived patients (P = 0.001), as well as patients with fewer comorbidities (P<0.001) appear to have more chance of being selected for a brain scan.

Conclusion

Some English public hospitals appear to be falling well below the clinical guideline standards for scanning stroke patients and inappropriate patient selection criteria may be being applied, leading to health inequalities.     

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate

Introduction

As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed.

Methods

We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers.

Results

We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18–73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%–6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services.

Conclusion

The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.     

Geriatric conditions in acutely hospitalized older patients: prevalence and one-year survival and functional decline

Background

To study the prevalence of eighteen geriatric conditions in older patients at admission, their reporting rate in discharge summaries and the impact of these conditions on mortality and functional decline one year after admission.

Method

A prospective multicenter cohort study conducted between 2006 and 2008 in two tertiary university teaching hospitals and one regional teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Patients of 65 years and older, acutely admitted and hospitalized for at least 48 hours, were invited to participate. Eighteen geriatric conditions were assessed at hospital admission, and outcomes (mortality, functional decline) were assessed one year after admission.

Results

639 patients were included, with a mean age of 78 years. IADL impairment (83%), polypharmacy (61%), mobility difficulty (59%), high levels of primary caregiver burden (53%), and malnutrition (52%) were most prevalent. Except for polypharmacy and cognitive impairment, the reporting rate of the geriatric conditions in discharge summaries was less than 50%. One year after admission, 35% had died and 33% suffered from functional decline. A high Charlson comorbidity index score, presence of malnutrition, high fall risk, presence of delirium and premorbid IADL impairment were associated with mortality and overall poor outcome (mortality or functional decline). Obesity lowered the risk for mortality.

Conclusion

Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent and associated with poor health outcomes after admission. Early recognition of these conditions in acutely hospitalized older patients and improving the handover to the general practitioner could lead to better health outcomes and reduce the burden of hospital admission for older patients.     

Using Highly Detailed Administrative Data to Predict Pneumonia Mortality

Background

Mortality prediction models generally require clinical data or are derived from information coded at discharge, limiting adjustment for presenting severity of illness in observational studies using administrative data.

Objectives

To develop and validate a mortality prediction model using administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days.

Research Design

After dividing the dataset into derivation and validation sets, we created a hierarchical generalized linear mortality model that included patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, therapies, and diagnostic tests administered in the first 2 hospital days. We then applied the model to the validation set.

Subjects

Patients aged ≥18 years admitted with pneumonia between July 2007 and June 2010 to 347 hospitals in Premier, Inc.’s Perspective database.

Measures

In hospital mortality.

Results

The derivation cohort included 200,870 patients and the validation cohort had 50,037. Mortality was 7.2%. In the multivariable model, 3 demographic factors, 25 comorbidities, 41 medications, 7 diagnostic tests, and 9 treatments were associated with mortality. Factors that were most strongly associated with mortality included receipt of vasopressors, non-invasive ventilation, and bicarbonate. The model had a c-statistic of 0.85 in both cohorts. In the validation cohort, deciles of predicted risk ranged from 0.3% to 34.3% with observed risk over the same deciles from 0.1% to 33.7%.

Conclusions

A mortality model based on detailed administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days had good discrimination and calibration. The model compares favorably to clinically based prediction models and may be useful in observational studies when clinical data are not available.     

Craniectomy for malignant cerebral infarction: prevalence and outcomes in US hospitals

Object

Randomized trials have demonstrated the efficacy of craniectomy for the treatment of malignant cerebral edema following ischemic stroke. We sought to determine the prevalence and outcomes related to this by using a national database.

Methods

Patient discharges with ischemic stroke as the primary diagnosis undergoing craniectomy were queried from the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1999 to 2008. A subpopulation of patients was identified that underwent thrombolysis. Two primary end points were examined: in-hospital mortality and discharge to home/routine care. To facilitate interpretations, adjusted prevalence was calculated from the overall prevalence and two age-specific logistic regression models. The predictive margin was then generated using a multivariate logistic regression model to estimate the probability of in-hospital mortality after adjustment for admission type, admission source, length of stay, total hospital charges, chronic comorbidities, and medical complications.

Results

After excluding 71,996 patients with the diagnosis of intracranial hemorrhage and posterior intracranial circulation occlusion, we identified 4,248,955 adult hospitalizations with ischemic stroke as a primary diagnosis. The estimated rates of hospitalizations in craniectomy per 10,000 hospitalizations with ischemic stroke increased from 3.9 in 1999–2000 to 14.46 in 2007–2008 (p for linear trend<0.001). Patients 60+ years of age had in-hospital mortality of 44% while the 18–59 year old group was found to be 24%(p = 0.14). Outcomes were comparable if recombinant tissue plasminogen activator had been administered.

Conclusions

Craniectomy is being increasingly performed for malignant cerebral edema following large territory cerebral ischemia. We suspect that the increase in the annual incidence of DC for malignant cerebral edema is directly related to the expanding collection of evidence in randomized trials that the operation is efficacious when performed in the correct patient population. In hospital mortality is high for all patients undergoing this procedure.     

Late entry to HIV care limits the impact of anti-retroviral therapy in The Netherlands

Objective

To explain differences in survival in the first three years of combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) between HIV treatment centres in the Netherlands.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a mathematical simulation model, parameterised using data from the ATHENA cohort that describes patients entering care, being monitored and starting cART. Three scenarios were used to represent three treatment centres with widely varying mortality rates on cART that were differentiated by: (i) the distribution of CD4 counts of patients entering care; (ii) the age distribution of patients entering care; (iii) the average rate of monitoring the patients not on cART. At the level of the treatment centre, the fraction of Dutch MSM dying in the first three years of treatment ranged from 0% to 8%. The mathematical model captured the large variation in observed mortality between the three treatment centres. Manipulating the age-distribution of patients or the frequency of monitoring did not affect the model predictions. In contrast, when the same national average distribution of CD4 count at entry was used in all the scenarios, the variation in predicted mortality between all centres was diminished.

Conclusions/Significance

Patients entering care with low CD4 counts appears to be the main source of variation in the mortality rates between Dutch treatment centres. Recruiting HIV-infected individuals to care earlier could lead to substantial improvements in cART outcomes. For example, if patients were to present with at least 400 CD4 cells/mm³, as they do already in some centres, then our model predicts that the mortality in the first three years of cART could be reduced by approximately 20%.     

Severe imported falciparum malaria: a cohort study in 400 critically ill adults

Background

Large studies on severe imported malaria in non-endemic industrialized countries are lacking. We sought to describe the clinical spectrum of severe imported malaria in French adults and to identify risk factors for mortality at admission to the intensive care unit.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Retrospective review of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes according to the 2000 World Health Organization definition and requiring admission to the intensive care unit. Data were collected from medical charts using standardised case-report forms, in 45 French intensive care units in 2000–2006. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.Data from 400 adults admitted to the intensive care unit were analysed, representing the largest series of severe imported malaria to date. Median age was 45 years; 60% of patients were white, 96% acquired the disease in sub-Saharan Africa, and 65% had not taken antimalarial chemoprophylaxis. Curative quinine treatment was used in 97% of patients. Intensive care unit mortality was 10.5% (42 deaths). By multivariate analysis, three variables at intensive care unit admission were independently associated with hospital death: older age (per 10-year increment, odds ratio [OR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.28–2.32; P = 0.0004), Glasgow Coma Scale score (per 1-point decrease, OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.20–1.45; P<0.0001), and higher parasitemia (per 5% increment, OR, 1.41; 95%CI, 1.22–1.62; P<0.0001).

Conclusions and Significance

In a large population of adults treated in a non-endemic industrialized country, severe malaria still carried a high mortality rate. Our data, including predictors of death, can probably be generalized to other non-endemic countries where high-quality healthcare is available.     

Long-term follow-up of transsexual persons undergoing sex reassignment surgery: cohort study in Sweden

Context

The treatment for transsexualism is sex reassignment, including hormonal treatment and surgery aimed at making the person''s body as congruent with the opposite sex as possible. There is a dearth of long term, follow-up studies after sex reassignment.

Objective

To estimate mortality, morbidity, and criminal rate after surgical sex reassignment of transsexual persons.

Design

A population-based matched cohort study.

Setting

Sweden, 1973-2003.

Participants

All 324 sex-reassigned persons (191 male-to-females, 133 female-to-males) in Sweden, 1973–2003. Random population controls (10∶1) were matched by birth year and birth sex or reassigned (final) sex, respectively.

Main Outcome Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality and psychiatric morbidity were obtained with Cox regression models, which were adjusted for immigrant status and psychiatric morbidity prior to sex reassignment (adjusted HR [aHR]).

Results

The overall mortality for sex-reassigned persons was higher during follow-up (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8–4.3) than for controls of the same birth sex, particularly death from suicide (aHR 19.1; 95% CI 5.8–62.9). Sex-reassigned persons also had an increased risk for suicide attempts (aHR 4.9; 95% CI 2.9–8.5) and psychiatric inpatient care (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0–3.9). Comparisons with controls matched on reassigned sex yielded similar results. Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls.

Conclusions

Persons with transsexualism, after sex reassignment, have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behaviour, and psychiatric morbidity than the general population. Our findings suggest that sex reassignment, although alleviating gender dysphoria, may not suffice as treatment for transsexualism, and should inspire improved psychiatric and somatic care after sex reassignment for this patient group.     

Clinical manifestations associated with neurocysticercosis: a systematic review

Background

The clinical manifestations of neurocysticercosis (NCC) are poorly understood. This systematic review aims to estimate the frequencies of different manifestations, complications and disabilities associated with NCC.

Methods

A systematic search of the literature published from January 1, 1990, to June 1, 2008, in 24 different electronic databases and 8 languages was conducted. Meta-analyses were conducted when appropriate.

Results

A total of 1569 documents were identified, and 21 included in the analysis. Among patients seen in neurology clinics, seizures/epilepsy were the most common manifestations (78.8%, 95%CI: 65.1%–89.7%) followed by headaches (37.9%, 95%CI: 23.3%–53.7%), focal deficits (16.0%, 95%CI: 9.7%–23.6%) and signs of increased intracranial pressure (11.7%, 95%CI: 6.0%–18.9%). All other manifestations occurred in less than 10% of symptomatic NCC patients. Only four studies reported on the mortality rate of NCC.

Conclusions

NCC is a pleomorphic disease linked to a range of manifestations. Although definitions of manifestations were very rarely provided, and varied from study to study, the proportion of NCC cases with seizures/epilepsy and the proportion of headaches were consistent across studies. These estimates are only applicable to patients who are ill enough to seek care in neurology clinics and likely over estimate the frequency of manifestations among all NCC cases.     

Caregiver recognition of childhood diarrhea, care seeking behaviors and home treatment practices in rural Burkina Faso: a cross-sectional survey

Introduction

To design effective national diarrhea control programs, including oral rehydration solution (ORS) and therapeutic zinc supplementation, information is needed on local perceptions of illness, external care seeking behaviors, and home treatment practices.

Methods

A cross-sectional, community-based household survey was conducted in the Orodara Health District, Burkina Faso. Caregivers of 10,490 children <27 months were interviewed to assess child diarrhea prevalence and related care practices. Characteristics of households, caregivers, children, and reported illnesses were compared for those caregivers who did or did not recognize the presence of diarrhea, as defined according to clinical criteria (≥3 liquid or semi-liquid stools/day). Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine factors associated with illness recognition and treatment.

Results

Clinically defined diarrhea was present in 7.6% (95% CI: 7.1–8.1%) of children during the 24 hours preceding the survey but recognized by only 55% of caregivers. Over half (55%) of the caregivers of 1,067 children with a clinically defined diarrhea episode in the past 14 days sought care outside the home; 78% of those seeking care attended a public sector clinic. Care was sought and treatment provided more frequently for children with fever, vomiting, anorexia, longer illness duration, and those living closer to the health center; and care was sought more frequently for male children. 80% of children with recent diarrhea received some form of treatment; only 24% received ORS, whereas 14% received antibiotics. Zinc was not yet available in the study area.

Conclusions

Caregivers frequently fail to recognize children''s diarrhea, especially among younger infants and when illness signs are less severe. Treatment practices do not correspond with international recommendations in most cases, even when caregivers consult with formal health services. Child caregivers need additional assistance to recognize diarrhea correctly, and both caregivers and health care providers need updated training on current diarrhea treatment recommendations.     

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Methods and Findings

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d''Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9–6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6–12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9–11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0–19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

Conclusions

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.     

The prevalence of natural health product use in patients with acute cardiovascular disease

Background

Natural health products (NHP) use may have implications with respect to adverse effects, drug interactions and adherence yet the prevalence of NHP use by patients with acute cardiovascular disease and the best method to ascertain this information is unknown.

Objective

To identify the best method to ascertain information on NHP, and the prevalence of use in a population with acute cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of consecutive patients admitted with acute cardiovascular disease to the University of Alberta Hospital during January 2009. NHP use was explored using structured and open-ended questions based on Health Canada''s definition of NHP. The medical record was reviewed, and documentation of NHP use by physicians, nurses, and pharmacists, compared against the gold-standard structured interview.

Results

88 patients were interviewed (mean age 62 years, standard deviation [SD 14]; 80% male; 41% admitted for acute coronary syndromes). Common co-morbidities included hypertension (59%), diabetes (26%) and renal impairment (19%). NHP use was common (78% of patients) and 75% of NHP users reported daily use. The category of NHP most commonly used was vitamins and minerals (73%) followed by herbal products (20%), traditional medicines including Chinese medicines (9%), homeopathic preparations (1%) and other products including amino acids, essential fatty acids and probiotics (35%). In a multivariable model, only older age was associated with increased NHP use (OR 1.5 per age decile [95%CI 1.03 to 2.2]). When compared to the interview, the highest rate of NHP documentation was the pharmacist history (41%). NHP were documented in 22% of patients by the physician and 19% by the nurse.

Conclusions

NHP use is common in patients admitted with acute cardiovascular disease. However, health professionals do not commonly identify NHP as part of the medication profile despite its potential importance. Structured interview appears to be the best method to accurately identify patient use of NHP.     

Identifying acute coronary syndrome patients approaching end-of-life

Background

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is common in patients approaching the end-of-life (EoL), but these patients rarely receive palliative care. We compared the utility of a palliative care prognostic tool (Gold Standards Framework (GSF)) and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, to help identify patients approaching EoL.

Methods and Findings

172 unselected consecutive patients with confirmed ACS admitted over an eight-week period were assessed using prognostic tools and followed up for 12 months. GSF criteria identified 40 (23%) patients suitable for EoL care while GRACE identified 32 (19%) patients with ≥10% risk of death within 6 months. Patients meeting GSF criteria were older (p = 0.006), had more comorbidities (1.6±0.7 vs. 1.2±0.9, p = 0.007), more frequent hospitalisations before (p = 0.001) and after (0.0001) their index admission, and were more likely to die during follow-up (GSF+ 20% vs GSF- 7%, p = 0.03). GRACE score was predictive of 12-month mortality (C-statistic 0.75) and this was improved by the addition of previous hospital admissions and previous history of stroke (C-statistic 0.88).

Conclusions

This study has highlighted a potentially large number of ACS patients eligible for EoL care. GSF or GRACE could be used in the hospital setting to help identify these patients. GSF identifies ACS patients with more comorbidity and at increased risk of hospital readmission.     

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART.

Methods and Findings

We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year.

Conclusions

The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary