Evaluating Spatial Interaction Models for Regional Mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Simple spatial interaction models of human mobility based on physical laws have been used extensively in the social, biological, and physical sciences, and in the study of the human dynamics underlying the spread of disease. Recent analyses of commuting patterns and travel behavior in high-income countries have led to the suggestion that these models are highly generalizable, and as a result, gravity and radiation models have become standard tools for describing population mobility dynamics for infectious disease epidemiology. Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa may not conform to these models, however; physical accessibility, availability of transport, and cost of travel between locations may be variable and severely constrained compared to high-income settings, informal labor movements rather than regular commuting patterns are often the norm, and the rise of mega-cities across the continent has important implications for travel between rural and urban areas. Here, we first review how infectious disease frameworks incorporate human mobility on different spatial scales and use anonymous mobile phone data from nearly 15 million individuals to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Kenyan population. We find that gravity and radiation models fail in systematic ways to capture human mobility measured by mobile phones; both severely overestimate the spatial spread of travel and perform poorly in rural areas, but each exhibits different characteristic patterns of failure with respect to routes and volumes of travel. Thus, infectious disease frameworks that rely on spatial interaction models are likely to misrepresent population dynamics important for the spread of disease in many African populations.     

基于分形理论的乡村聚落景观空间特征及演变——以厦门市为例

空间结构和空间形态共同构成乡村聚落景观空间特征,对二者的科学分析是乡村土地利用格局优化的基础.本研究采用分形理论,从全市与分乡镇两个尺度上对厦门市乡村聚落景观空间结构的特征和演变进行定量分析,并提出空间格局优化的相应对策.结果表明: 厦门市乡村聚落景观空间结构与形态的分形特征明显.在全市尺度上,聚集维数、交通网络直通度和空间形态维数随时间变化而增大,而空间关联维数持续减少;乡村聚落景观空间结构呈多中心聚集态分布,交通网络通达性变好,空间结构自组织不断优化,而乡村聚落景观空间形态日趋复杂,空间呈扩展的趋势.在分乡镇尺度上,乡村聚落景观空间特征差异显著,空间结构松散、通达性较弱等问题存在于部分乡镇.未来需加强交通等基础设施投入和中心村建设,提高乡村聚落内部各要素的关联度,促使其空间结构优化.本研究结果为优化乡村聚落空间布局、科学编制乡村土地利用规划提供了有力的技术手段和理论支撑.     

高寒山地生态脆弱区聚落空间格局特征及成因识别——以天祝藏族自治县为例

自然环境复杂多样是山区聚落空间差异性和异质性的主要原因，对聚落空间治理及可持续发展具有深刻影响。采用天祝县2018年土地变更调查数据，利用空间"热点"探测、最小累积阻力值模型（MCR）和二元Logistic回归等方法，对聚落空间分布格局及其形成因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）聚落分布整体表现为集聚型，空间上呈现出"东南高、西北低"的格局。（2）核密度估计值东南高、西北低，形成"东南密集型"和"西北稀疏型"2个典型分布区，呈现出"核心-边缘"结构；同时，聚落规模空间"热点"探测显示，聚落形态具有显著的空间差异性，华藏寺镇表现为高密度大斑块，其他乡镇表现为中低密度小斑块。（3）聚落斑块平均密度对分组分析结果作用显著，聚落类型由中低密度斑块主导，受高寒气候区分布范围较广的影响，高寒区稀疏型聚落覆盖范围较大。（4）通过聚落空间格局影响因素统计分析和Logistic回归分析，定量识别出：地形条件、土地资源配置和降水条件对聚落分布疏密程度作用最显著，交通禀赋和交通可达性对县域聚落格局优化具有重要作用。     

基于RS与GIS的农村居民点空间变化特征与景观格局影响研究

农村居民点作为乡村地域空间人口聚居形态,是乡村聚落景观重要组成部分,其空间布局、演变特征受自然、社会、经济多重因素的影响。利用都江堰市2005年和2010年两期遥感影像提取农村居民点、坡度、道路、河流等矢量数据,借助RS、GIS空间分析技术,定量研究都江堰市农村居民点的空间变化过程、格局和趋势,并选取景观格局指数对影响农村居民点布局特征的因素进行深入分析。结果表明:(1)2005年和2010年都江堰市农村居民点的空间分布总体上均表现出显著的聚集趋势,2010年农村居民点的聚集程度要比2005年高,但居民点集聚的空间态势没有发生明显变化,仍然集中在都江堰市的东南部;(2)坡度、道路和河流对都江堰市农村居民点的布局有显著影响,其中超过80%的居民点分布在0—10°坡度范围内,超过50%的居民点分布在道路500 m范围内,近60%居民点分布在河流1000 m范围内;(3)农村居民点空间布局除了受地形因素影响外,还与国家级风景名胜区、世界文化遗产区等保护政策,农村土地综合整治和灾后重建等规划因素密切相关。该研究以期为农村居民点动态变化监测、农村土地整理效果评价、新农村规划等理论和实践提供重要决策参考和技术支撑。     

Human settlement and baobab distribution in south-western Mali

Aim Human settlement establishment and reproduction of the baobab tree (Adansonia digitata) appear spatially and temporally dependent because baobabs are abundant in many settlement sites in Africa. This paper tests the spatiotemporal relationship between baobab and settlement distribution. Location South‐western Mali. Methods In an area of 183 km², 1240 baobabs were located and mapped, their diameters measured, and habitat characteristics recorded for each individual. All occupied (n = 9) and abandoned (n = 84) settlements were located and mapped, and occupation dates were determined through interviews. Chi‐squared analysis indicated baobab habitat preferences, and bivariate point‐pattern analysis tested baobab–settlement spatiotemporal independence. Results Baobabs and human settlements are positively spatially associated at most distances and for all baobab size‐class–settlement age‐class pairs. However, positive spatial association is significant only at distances < 500 m, and young settlements and large baobabs are not significantly associated. Positive association between small and large baobabs is marginally significant at <300 m, but observed significance is less than that for baobab–settlement positive association. Baobab abundance is not evenly distributed across the range of habitats it occupies; recruitment is strongest in settlements and fields, and on cliffs, while mortality is highest on cliffs. Ethnographic observations suggest that human settlement practices and fruit use are the main human factors contributing to baobab–settlement positive spatial association. Main conclusions There are three main conclusions: (1) Human settlement and baobab recruitment are spatially dependant because settlement leads directly and indirectly to the development of baobab groves at settlement sites. (2) The lower than expected abundance of mature individuals in natural habitats, and the habitat preferences of the observed population, suggest that baobabs were introduced to south‐western Mali, probably centuries ago. (3) Human mobility over decadal time‐scales is necessary to maintain baobab population structure in landscapes dominated by shifting land use, where baobabs are not purposefully planted. Baobab population processes in such landscapes occur at the scale of human settlement.     

Spatial characteristics of vegetation habitat suitability and mountainous settlements and their quantitative relationships in upstream of Min River,southwestern of China

Vegetation habitat suitability (HS) and mountainous settlements are continuously varying, and display spatial heterogeneity in their spatial arrangement at multiple scales substantially. This paper focuses on spatial characteristics of vegetation HS and mountainous settlement and their quantitative relationships in the upstream of Min River, southwest of China. Based on the spatially distributed maps of vegetation HS types and different nationality mountainous settlements, we first described spatial differentiation and cluster of vegetation HS from global and local standpoints through lacunarity analysis and Multilevel Bayesian model. Then, we depicted the effects of nationality attribute on the spatially distributed characteristics of mountainous settlements. Finally, we revealed the relationships between the geometrical features of mountainous settlements and vegetation HS. The detailed results were as following: 1) The vegetation habitats are classified into four types based on the vegetation HS indexes, the largest spatially heterogeneities of comprehensive, unsuitable and worst unsuitable vegetation HS types occurred in Wenchuan county, but the largest spatially heterogeneities of suitable and sub-suitable vegetation HS categories appeared in Songpan county. The largest spatially clusters of comprehensive, suitable and sub-suitable vegetation HS categories were in Wenchuan, Songpan and Lixian counties, respectively. This suggested that their spatial clusters were low and spatial heterogeneity were high. However, the largest spatially clusters of unsuitable and worst unsuitable vegetation HS types were in Maoxian county. 2) The largest spatially cluster occurred in the Han nationality mountainous settlements revealed their closure characteristics in mountainous regions. Meanwhile, the spatial cluster of all mountainous settlements across watershed approximated to Tibetan nationality mountainous settlement, indicating that the spatial heterogeneity and layout characteristics of Tibetan nationality mountainous settlement could reflect the spatial differentiation of all settlements across watershed. 3) The average values of vegetation HS indexes for Tibetan-Qiang-Hui-Han nationality mountainous settlements were 2.8157, 2.6217, 2.5291 and 2.6441. It meant that the spatial distribution of mountainous settlements perfectly match with spatial pattern of vegetation habitat. Moreover, the sensitivities of geometrical feature characteristics for all mountainous settlements to vegetation HS were similar to Qiang nationality mountainous settlement. The quantitative results obtained from analysis on spatial characteristics of vegetation HS and mountainous settlements, and their interactive relationships could provide effective data supports for ecological construction of vegetation habitat and spatial reconstruction of mountainous settlements.     

城镇化过程中福建省山区县农村聚落景观格局变化特征

农村聚落是农村居民与其周围环境相互作用的现象与过程,是城乡二元关系发展的重要一环,科学评估山地型农村聚落景观时空变化及影响因素对山地城镇化发展具有重要意义。选取了城镇化迅速发展的福建省上杭县作为案例,使用2004年与2014年高分辨率遥感影像、DEM等数据,运用RS、GIS及Fragstats技术,定量分析了上杭县农村聚落景观变化过程、格局趋势。研究表明:(1)2004—2014年上杭县农村聚落数量出现大幅下降,空间分布态势并没有发生太大变化,主要集中在西部汀江水系与东北部,并有进一步加强的趋势,Voronoi模型Cv值结果表现出这一趋势,但最近邻分析结果却显示出2014年相对2004年略微分散。(2)Ripley's K函数显示山地型农村聚落集聚与分散存在尺度效应,65km以内都表现出集聚趋势,2004年在35km处出现最高集聚状态,2014年则在15km集聚达到最高之后出现缓慢下降,并且在30km尺度范围内集聚程度大于2004年。(3)坡度、水系与道路对山地型农村聚落有显著影响,坡度5°是最为关键的因素,10°是一个阈值,80%的农村聚落都分布在10°以内;67%以上的农村聚落分布在距河流湖泊2km范围内;交通对农村聚落影响愈发显著,98.28%聚落分布在交通道路500m范围,未来推进山地城镇化应更加重视交通的作用。(4)乡镇政府所在地中心村镇面积扩大了4.59倍,远高于一般聚落,是山地城镇化过程中景观变化最剧烈的地区,也是为来应重点发展的地区。研究可为山地型农村聚落建设、山地型城镇化村镇规划理论与决策提供一定借鉴。     

Genetic microdifferentiation in the Semai Senoi of Malaysia.

Blood samples, demographic and cultural data were collected from seven settlements of Semai Senoi, a swidden farming ethnic group of Malaysia. Three genetic loci (ABO blood group, hereditary ovalcytosis, and hemoglobin) were analyzed in a total sample of 546 individuals. These data indicate a considerable degree of genetic microdifferentiation in this area of the Semai distribution. Parent-offspring birthplace data (analyzed by means of a migration matrix) and settlement histories show that settlements are not strongly isolated. Genetic differences in the study area demonstrate a reasonable correspondence with migration and the history of the settlements. Genetic convergence also occurs through the addition of migrant groups to established populations leading to new patterns of marriage between donor and recipient groups. The genetic structure of the total Semai population through time thus comprises a mosaic of shifiting allele frequencies in a series of semi-isolated local populations.     

西藏城乡居民点空间分异特征与影响因素

西藏地处青藏高原腹地,区内适宜人类生活的空间十分有限,居民点空间分布受多因素制约.为揭示西藏居民点的空间分布特征和主要影响因素,采用高分影像,基于目视与机器解译结合提取西藏城乡居民点斑块数据,运用核密度、空间热点探测、GeoDetector等方法探索其空间分异特征与影响因素,以期为今后高原地区宜居地选址、制定区域经济发展等相关政策提供参考.结果表明: 西藏城乡居民点呈聚集分布模式,整体密度分布差异较大;呈以拉萨市为高密度核心,昌都市、林芝市、阿里地区为低密度边缘的“核心-边缘”结构;高密度核心区拉萨市斑块密度多达220 ind·km^-2,而低密度边缘区密度最大仅为5.7 ind·km^-2,两个区域相差43倍.西藏城乡居民点规模高低值聚簇现象显著,大斑块高值数量稀少,小斑块低值数量绝对优势突出;大斑块高值占比仅为3.7%,集中分布于拉萨市和山南市,低值聚簇区占比达到67.2%,主要分布于羌塘高原的阿里地区和那曲市.西藏城乡居民点被划分成6种类型,形成了以“一江两河”地区和“三江流域”为中心的两个圈层结构,由内到外依次为大斑块主导型、中密度团簇型、高密度散点型、低密度散点型和高寒地无人型;拉萨市以中密度团簇型为主,占比为31%,山南市以低密度散点型为主,占比为38%,昌都市以低密度散点型为主,占比高达51%,阿里地区、那曲市和日喀则市均以高寒地无人型为主,其中,在阿里地区占比高达64%.不同影响因子对西藏城乡居民点空间分布的影响程度差异性显著;人口和GDP对城乡居民点的分布均具有很强的决定性;此外,城镇居民点表现出强烈的道路指向性,农村居民点更多地表现为河流指向性.     

High Resolution Population Distribution Maps for Southeast Asia in 2010 and 2015

Spatially accurate, contemporary data on human population distributions are vitally important to many applied and theoretical researchers. The Southeast Asia region has undergone rapid urbanization and population growth over the past decade, yet existing spatial population distribution datasets covering the region are based principally on population count data from censuses circa 2000, with often insufficient spatial resolution or input data to map settlements precisely. Here we outline approaches to construct a database of GIS-linked circa 2010 census data and methods used to construct fine-scale (∼100 meters spatial resolution) population distribution datasets for each country in the Southeast Asia region. Landsat-derived settlement maps and land cover information were combined with ancillary datasets on infrastructure to model population distributions for 2010 and 2015. These products were compared with those from two other methods used to construct commonly used global population datasets. Results indicate mapping accuracies are consistently higher when incorporating land cover and settlement information into the AsiaPop modelling process. Using existing data, it is possible to produce detailed, contemporary and easily updatable population distribution datasets for Southeast Asia. The 2010 and 2015 datasets produced are freely available as a product of the AsiaPop Project and can be downloaded from: www.asiapop.org.     

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles.     

Population and Land Use Effects on Malaria Prevalence in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

Malaria prevalence has been one of the most dramatic outcomes of the occupation of the Brazilian Amazon as exemplified by Northern Mato Grosso, one of the areas of highest malaria prevalence in the Americas in the early 1990s. This paper associates the dynamicsof high malaria prevalence in Northern Mato Grosso with three land uses—small-scalegold mining (garimpos), agricultural colonization/cattle ranching (rural), and urban activities—and their related population characteristics, which constitute riskprofiles. Furthermore, spatial proximity and population mobility between (a) garimpos and new rural settlements and (b) older rural settlements or urban areas are key factors explaining malaria diffusion throughout the region. The paper identifies and characterizes populations at high malaria risk and the effects of land use types on malaria diffusion, providing policymakers with information for regional and local policies to control malaria and minimize its effects on Amazonian populations.     

贵州典型峰丛洼地区域近50年村落演变规律及驱动机制

揭示当前多种因素驱动下聚落演变模式与功能转型的地域差异具有重要意义。通过长时间序列的高清影像数据,研究典型峰丛洼地区不同自然和社会经济条件下,近50年来,尤其最近10年乡村聚落在多重背景下的演变模式、内在机制,及其地域差异。结果发现:(1)研究区聚落分布分部主要受耕地、地形和道路的影响,聚落面积增长热点和聚落斑块增长热点的耦合关系存在区域差异;(2)聚落格局演变存在集聚与均匀分布两种趋势;(3)研究区聚落特征和演变的阶段性地域差异十分明显;(4)喀斯特山区聚落的规模变化、演变阶段和演变模式既存在一些共同性的特征,又有各自的差异性;(5)外部因素和聚落农户的自我调适是演化的主要驱动力。     

Livestock Settlement Dynamics in Drylands: Model application in the Monte desert (Mendoza,Argentina)

Human settlements in arid environments are becoming widespread due to population growth, and without planning, they may alter vegetation and ecosystem processes, compromising sustainability. We hypothesize that in an arid region of the central Monte desert (Mendoza, Argentina), surface and groundwater availability are the primary factors controlling livestock settlements establishment and success as productive units, which affect patterns of degradation in the landscape. To evaluate this hypothesis we simulated settlement dynamics using a Monte Carlo based model of Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD), which calculates probabilities on a gridded region based on six environmental factors: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved road, old river beds, and existing settlements. A parameter sweep, including millions of simulations, was run to identify the most relevant factors controlling settlements. Results indicate that distances to rivers and the presence of old river beds are critical to explain the current distribution of settlements, while vegetation, paved roads, and water table depth were not as relevant to explain settlement distribution. Far from surface water sources, most settlements were established at random, suggesting that pressures to settle in unfavorable places control settlement dynamics in those isolated areas. The simulated vegetation, which considers degradation around livestock settlements, generally matched the spatial distribution of remotely sensed vegetation classes, although with a higher cover of extreme vegetation classes. The model could be a useful tool to evaluate effects of land use changes, such as water provision or changes on river flows, on settlement distribution and vegetation degradation in arid environments.     

Travel patterns in China

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult.     

Heterogeneous mobile phone ownership and usage patterns in Kenya

The rapid adoption of mobile phone technologies in Africa is offering exciting opportunities for engaging with high-risk populations through mHealth programs, and the vast volumes of behavioral data being generated as people use their phones provide valuable data about human behavioral dynamics in these regions. Taking advantage of these opportunities requires an understanding of the penetration of mobile phones and phone usage patterns across the continent, but very little is known about the social and geographical heterogeneities in mobile phone ownership among African populations. Here, we analyze a survey of mobile phone ownership and usage across Kenya in 2009 and show that distinct regional, gender-related, and socioeconomic variations exist, with particularly low ownership among rural communities and poor people. We also examine patterns of phone sharing and highlight the contrasting relationships between ownership and sharing in different parts of the country. This heterogeneous penetration of mobile phones has important implications for the use of mobile technologies as a source of population data and as a public health tool in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Evidence for the buffer effect operating in multiple species at a national scale

A long-standing aim of ecologists is to understand the processes involved in regulating populations. One such mechanism is the buffer effect, where lower quality habitats are increasingly used as a species reaches higher population densities, with a resultant average reduction in fecundity and survival limiting population growth. Although the buffer effect has been demonstrated in populations of a number of species, a test of its importance in influencing population growth rates of multiple species across large spatial scales is lacking. Here, we use habitat-specific population trends for 85 bird species from long-term national monitoring data (the UK Breeding Bird Survey) to examine its generality. We find that both patterns of population change and changes in habitat preference are consistent with the predictions of the buffer effect, providing support for its widespread operation.     

基于可达性分析的城市公园绿地供给研究——以广西玉林市为例

城市公园绿地在空间上的分布和供给水平对其服务功能的发挥有非常重要的影响。人均公园绿地面积这一数量指标忽略了可达性问题以及实际人均公园绿地水平的空间差异。另一方面,在城市绿地资源紧缺的情况下对城市公园绿地的精准化供给提出了较高要求。尝试通过基于互联网位置大数据平台的数据分析,对不同出行方式下公园绿地的可达性进行评价,并从可达性的视角提出人均有效绿地面积的概念,用以分析玉林市中心城区现状公园绿地的空间分布和供给情况,提出优化策略和方案,为城市公园绿地的布局提供新思路。     

Demography and the Age of Rare Variants

Large whole-genome sequencing projects have provided access to much rare variation in human populations, which is highly informative about population structure and recent demography. Here, we show how the age of rare variants can be estimated from patterns of haplotype sharing and how these ages can be related to historical relationships between populations. We investigate the distribution of the age of variants occurring exactly twice ( variants) in a worldwide sample sequenced by the 1000 Genomes Project, revealing enormous variation across populations. The median age of haplotypes carrying variants is 50 to 160 generations across populations within Europe or Asia, and 170 to 320 generations within Africa. Haplotypes shared between continents are much older with median ages for haplotypes shared between Europe and Asia ranging from 320 to 670 generations. The distribution of the ages of haplotypes is informative about their demography, revealing recent bottlenecks, ancient splits, and more modern connections between populations. We see the effect of selection in the observation that functional variants are significantly younger than nonfunctional variants of the same frequency. This approach is relatively insensitive to mutation rate and complements other nonparametric methods for demographic inference.     

Accessibility maps as a tool to predict sampling bias in historical biodiversity occurrence records

Historical biodiversity occurrence records are often discarded in spatial modeling analyses because of a lack of a method to quantify their sampling bias. Here we propose a new approach for predicting sampling bias in historical written records of occurrence, using a South African example as proof of concept. We modelled and mapped accessibility of the study area as the mean of proximity to freshwater and European settlements. We tested the model's ability to predict the location of historical biodiversity records from a dataset of 2612 large mammal occurrence records collected from historical written sources in South Africa in the period 1497–1920. We investigated temporal, spatial and environmental biases in these historical records and examined if the model prediction and occurrence dataset share similar environmental bias. We find a good agreement between the accessibility map and the distribution of sampling effort in the early historical period in South Africa. Environmental biases in the empirical data are identified, showing a preference for lower maximum temperature of the warmest month, higher mean monthly precipitation, higher net primary productivity and less arid biomes than expected by a uniform use of the study area. We find that the model prediction shares similar environmental bias as the empirical data. Accessibility maps, built with very simple statistical rules and in the absence of empirical data, can thus predict the spatial and environmental biases observed in historical biodiversity occurrence records. We recommend that this approach be used as a tool to estimate sampling bias in small datasets of occurrence and to improve the use of these data in spatial analyses in ecological and conservation studies.