基于GWR模型的土地覆盖与地表温度的关系——以京津唐城市群为例

基于Landsat TM土地覆盖分类数据和MODIS地表温度数据,探讨京津唐城市群不同土地覆盖的地表温度(7日),并采用常用的普通线性回归(OLS)和地理加权回归(GWR)方法分别拟合土地覆盖比例与地表温度的关系.结果表明: 研究区不同土地覆盖类型的地表温度差异明显,人工表面(40.92±3.49 ℃)和耕地(39.74±3.74 ℃)的平均温度较高,林地(34.43±4.16 ℃)和湿地(35.42±4.33 ℃)的平均温度较低;土地覆盖比例与地表温度显著相关,且两者之间的定量关系存在空间非稳定性,地理位置以及周围环境影响的差异是空间非稳定性产生的主要原因;GWR模型的拟合结果优于OLS模型(R_GWR²>R_OLS²),并且GWR模型可以量化土地覆盖比例与地表温度两者关系的空间非稳定性特征.     

1990—2015年三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性动态

作为国际重要湿地,三江平原生态功能区是重要的水禽栖息地.随着人类活动干扰、土地利用和全球气候变化,栖息地适宜性逐渐引起生态学家的重视.本文以Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI和HJ-1B为遥感信息源,采用面向对象分类方法提取土地覆被空间信息;采用综合熵值法和层次分析法确定水源状况(湖泊和河流密度)、干扰条件(居民地和道路密度)、遮蔽物(土地覆被类型和坡度)和食物丰富度(NDVI)等因子的权重;根据水禽栖息地适宜性评价系统获得三江平原生态功能区1990、2000、2010和2015年水禽栖息地适宜性结果,并分析其时空分布和变化特征及驱动因素.结果表明: 近25年间,三江平原生态功能区水禽栖息地适宜性最好区域面积减少3.2%,主要由于湿地开垦和退化;适宜性最好区域空间分布特征明显,主要分布于黑龙江、挠力河、乌苏里江、穆棱河以及兴凯湖等水补给充足的沿岸区域.适宜性良好的区域主要分布在饶河县,到2010和2015年,虎林县和抚远县也变为适宜性良好区域的重要分布区,主要由于该区水田面积大幅增加.适宜性一般区域分布较零散,其面积先增加后减少.适宜性差的区域面积在1990—2000年间增加6.7%,2000—2015年间减少3.1%.土地覆被变化是水禽栖息地适宜性等级变化的最重要影响因素;人口和经济增长以及气候的变干、变暖使水禽栖息地适宜性降低;保护区的建立使水禽栖息地得到有效保护.     

基于温度植被干旱指数的土库曼斯坦典型绿洲干旱遥感监测

针对目前中亚地区广泛存在的农业干旱问题,选取土库曼斯坦典型绿洲为研究区,利用2幅MODIS影像和同期过境的Landsat影像,获取归一化植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(Ts),构建NDVI-Ts特征空间,计算得到2001和2011年2种温度植被干旱指数TVDITM和TVDIMODIS.利用较高分辨率的Landsat TM数据对MODIS数据反演结果进行验证.结果表明:2001年、2011年TVDITM和TVDIMODIS的绝对误差分别为0.0178和0.0228;均方根误差分别为0.0226和0.0279;相关系数分别为0.949和0.922,说明TVDI可有效反映区域土壤干旱情况.研究区内干旱区域占总面积的60％以上,旱情由绿洲中心向外围逐步严重.近10年来,研究区内土壤湿度低值区呈现扩大趋势,湿润和正常所占比例下降了5.32％,干旱和重旱的比例上升了14％,旱情情况总体加剧.因此,利用MODIS影像的温度植被旱情指数可有效地监测中亚地区干旱情况.     

基于最小累积阻力模型的北京市生态用地规划研究

生态用地规划强调对区域生态系统结构与功能的保护,增强社会经济发展的生态环境支撑能力。从保障首都基本生态安全、改善大气环境质量、建设宜居城市的角度出发,通过对北京市生态重要性进行综合评价,明确北京市重要生态用地空间分布特征。在此基础上,采用最小累积阻力模型(MCR),以重要生态用地为"源",以土地覆被类型、距道路距离和距居民点距离作为阻力因子生成阻力面,模拟重要生态用地空间扩张过程,进而设置生态用地规划情景,并从景观连通性、生态功能保障度及与现状建设用地冲突情况等3个方面对不同情景下的生态用地规划方案进行保护效能评价,最终提出北京市生态用地的适宜规模和优化布局方案。研究结果表明:北京市重要生态用地总面积为9879 km~2,占市域总面积的60.20%;生态用地的适宜规模为12417 km~2,占市域总面积的75.67%,其中,平原区生态用地的适宜规模为2944 km~2,占平原区总面积的46.45%,主要分布于建成区的外围过渡地带;山区生态用地的适宜规模为9473 km~2,占山区总面积的94.05%。     

黄河源区玛多县土地利用和生态系统服务价值的演变

黄河源区玛多县作为"世界的一方净土",开展土地利用变化及生态系统服务功能量化评价,以期为保障黄河流域乃至全国生态安全提供支撑。以黄河源区玛多县为研究案例,统计了2005—2015年玛多县土地利用类型转移矩阵、土地利用变化动态度,计量了2005—2015年玛多县生态系统服务价值演变特征。结果表明:(1)10年间玛多县土地利用结构变化显著,高覆盖度草地、建设用地面积分别增加了38.30%和3.85倍,低覆盖度草地、林地分别降低了44.29%和86.55%。(2)10年间林地、低覆盖度草地的单一土地利用动态度分别为-8.65%、-4.43%,高覆盖度草地、中覆盖度草地的单一土地利用动态度分别为3.83%、2.83%,土地利用类型演变表现为从林地、低覆盖度草地向高覆盖度草地、中覆盖度草地的转移;前期(2005—2010年)林地、低覆盖度草地迅速减少,后期(2010—2015年)建设用地急速扩张。(3)10年间玛多县生态系统服务价值(ESV)呈增长趋势,从2005年的911.24×10~8元增长到2015年938.87×10~8元;单项生态系统服务价值中水文调节的ESV贡献量最大,在53.70%—55.24%之间。(4)10年间水域面积比例在8.21%—8.31%之间波动,ESV贡献量约占生态系统服务价值均在50%左右,未利用土地和高覆盖度草地的ESV贡献量分别为16.85%—17.26%和13.78%—18.50%,低覆盖度草地的ESV减少了44.29%。     

基于MODIS数据的天山区域地表温度时空特征

基于2001-2013年MODIS地表温度产品及TM影像遥感解译的土地利用类型数据,对天山区域地表温度时空特征进行分析.结果表明: 2001-2013年,研究区地表平均温度达1.73 ℃,呈东高西低的特点,西北部分地区的地表温度年际变化幅度明显高于其他地区,局部地区在0.55 ℃以上;地表温度呈逐年缓慢增加趋势,增加率为0.147 ℃·a^-1,季节性差异明显,冬季地表温度波动幅度较大,变异系数达12.7%,地表温度的差异白天大于夜晚,夏季明显高于其他季节;不同土地利用类型的地表温度之间存在差异,与对应像元的归一化植被指数之间存在不同的拟合效果.随着植被盖度的增加,林地、草地地表温度下降明显,归一化植被指数每下降0.1时,林地和草地的地表温度降幅为3.74、5.04 ℃;受人为活动影响较多的城镇用地和农地的地表温度与归一化植被指数之间的敏感性高于其他土地利用类型.     

Climate‐driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global‐scale analysis

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis‐driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology‐driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m^?2 yr^?1 across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid‐/high‐latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20–30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short‐wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site‐level reanalysis‐driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., 2013 ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate‐driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework.     

基于LUCC的城市生态安全研究进展

近代工业革命以来特别是二战以后,世界范围内城市化发展迅速,受城市化驱动的土地利用／覆盖变化（Land use／cover change,LUCC）及其环境影响越来越突出,不仅对城市生态安全产生了危胁,甚至在区域和全球尺度上影响生态系统的结构与功能,成为当今地球生态系统平衡与人类社会可持续发展的研究热点。尽管LUCC与城市生态安全态势有密切联系,然而目前研究中对土地利用变化的驱动机制较为侧重,涉及LUCC对城市生态安全影响的研究文献仍很缺乏。从城市生态安全的概念辨析入手,评述了国内外LUCC与城市生态安全响应研究的进展,将相关研究分为两个阶段：即定性和（半）定量研究阶段。指出了现有研究在理论体系与研究方法在指导实践中的不足之处,即：（1）基于LUCC城市尺度的生态安全研究的理论体系尚不成熟,目前的研究多未结合研究区域LUCC的动态特征对城市生态安全状态进行评价,因而也难以应用于指导城市生态建设实践;（2）目前的城市土地利用的生态影响实例研究中仍很缺乏采用数学模型、地理信息系统（GIS）、环境影响评价（EIA）、生态风险评价技术（ERA）及政策仿真等手段进行动态化的、多场景（Multi-Scenarios）模拟分析的综合运用,也缺乏对这些研究方法在实践中的应用的比较研究;（3）缺乏从土地利用动态监测、驱动力机制、生态响应等方面进行区域生态安全演变及调控的综合研究,现实指导意义有限。在上述工作的基础上,探讨了此研究领域未来的发展方向,即：（1）实现不同研究尺度的紧密结合;（2）多种研究方法的集成运用;（3）基于多学科知识体系的评价方法与指标体系的明细化与合理化。     

不同类型沙地上差巴嘎蒿细根的分布状态

 以生长于流动沙地和固定沙地上,处于植被演替不同阶段的半灌木差巴嘎蒿(Artemisia halodendron)种群为对象,用土钻取样法研究了生长季（2000年）降雨期前后差巴嘎蒿的根系随土壤深度的分布、生长动态及其与根际土壤含水量的动态关系,观察到：1)降雨期前各土层的根际土壤含水量随深度的增加而升高,增加的幅度为流动沙地>固定沙地;降雨期后根际土壤含水量随深度的增加而减少,减少的幅度为固定沙地>流动沙地。2)表土层（0～15 cm）中差巴嘎蒿的主根分布量在流动沙地显著高于固定沙地。3)降雨期前,差巴嘎蒿细根(直径<1 mm)分布比例在两种不同类型沙地上的差异表现为:在土层0～45cm中固定沙地(84.9%)极显著高于流动沙地(61.9%),而在深土层（>45 cm）中流动沙地（38.1%）显著高于固定沙地（22%）;降雨期后,不论是在固定沙地还是流动沙地细根多集中于0～15 cm的表土层中,流动沙地的细根分布比例由降雨期前33%增至降雨期后的78%,固定沙地由降雨期前的49%增至降雨期后的63%。表明流动沙地差巴嘎蒿种群细根的生长比固定沙地活跃,能够在生长季降雨期后迅速调整细根的分布比例,使细根分布适应降雨期后浅层土壤含水量高的特点。固定沙地的细根分布难以迅速适应土壤水分的变化,不利于差巴嘎蒿对水分的吸收,成为种群衰退的一个重要因素。     

黄土区露天煤矿排土场土壤与地形因子对植被恢复的影响

在脆弱的生态环境改善和恢复过程中,植被恢复与重建扮演着重要的角色。黄土露天煤矿区生态环境极其脆弱,认识矿区损毁土地植被恢复与地形、土壤因子之间的作用规律对矿区土地复垦与生态恢复改善至关重要。为此,选择山西平朔安太堡露天煤矿南排土场对2条样带27个复垦样地的土壤、地形、植被参数进行了采集与测定,并应用单因素方差分析与CANOCO4.5软件的降趋势对应分析和冗余分析研究了地形与土壤因子对植被恢复的影响。结果表明:植被与土壤变量之间呈显著相关,与地形变量之间相关性不明显;坡度主要影响草本覆盖度,坡向与有机质和速效磷之间具有线性相关性;速效钾对植被的变化起着重要的作用;土壤容重与砾石含量对土壤养分含量具有明显的指示作用;有机质与全氮呈显著正相关,各土壤养分指标之间存在明显的相关关系。为了改善和恢复黄土区露天煤矿排土场脆弱的生态系统,应该考虑植被和土壤的联合演替。在当地的生态环境状况下土地复垦与生态恢复的关键是改善土壤状况和增加人工植被,同时加强对排土场人工和自然植被的保护。     

基于SNIC-CNN-SVM模型的京津风沙源二期工程区土地利用/土地覆盖遥感识别研究

稀疏植被覆盖(草地、沙地、戈壁)演变能够直接表征区域生态环境和人类活动的动态影响变化。但由于大尺度稀疏植被区一般都具有地理跨度大,景观结构复杂多样,破碎化程度高,现有地表覆盖分类产品针对性不足等问题,使得该区域内林草沙的遥感提取难度较大,精度普遍偏低,直接制约生态效应评价模型的应用效果。因此,以典型大尺度稀疏植被区——京津风沙源治理二期工程区为研究区,研建了SNIC-CNN-SVM(SCS)模型,实现了大尺度稀疏植被区林草沙典型要素的信息自动提取和主要土地利用/土地覆盖类型识别。研究结果表明：1)引入惩罚性机制优化后的SNIC分割算法,有效提升了稀疏植被区与沙地区的边界区分度,有助于分类精度的提升;2)基于改进SNIC-CNN-SVM模型方案的研究区总体分类精度达89.41%,较优化前提高了11.17%,特别是乔、灌、草、沙地和戈壁的分类识别精度显著提升,表明该优化方案在以研究区为代表的稀疏植被区域分类中具有较好的应用效果和推广价值;3)分类结果显示,2020年工程区草地面积最大,占到了一半以上(51.52%),沙地占比11.96%,稀疏植被覆盖(草地、沙地、戈壁)区域占比68.68%...     

南疆生态脆弱区土地利用变化及其生态影响评价--以新疆阿克苏市为例

在城市化速度加快的背景下,研究LUCC对生态脆弱区的生态环境影响过程,对了解区域生态环境变化具有重要意义。利用南疆生态脆弱区———阿克苏市1995、2000和2003年的TM遥感影像,采用景观生态学的空间格局指数对城乡土地利用动态变化特征进行了研究,参照Costanza等对全球不同生态系统类型服务功能价值测算结果的比例关系,分析了阿克苏市城乡土地利用类型的生态价值,定量综合评价了阿克苏市城乡区域LUCC的生态影响。结果表明,阿克苏市域景观总体构成表现为景观破碎度较高,斑块数目较多;农业用地中有近半数不稳定,水土条件差致使农用地和未利用地相互转换。研究时段内市域土地利用变化带来了较好的生态影响,土地利用生态效益持续提高,并表现出了较大空间差异。     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

土壤质量与可持续土地利用管理

可持续发展的基础是农业的可持续发展,可持续农业应当包含对于资源的成功管理来满足人类需求的变化,同时维持或提高环境质量,保护自然资源。土壤质量是可持续土地利用管理的重要指标,本文在深入剖析土壤质量与可持续土地利用管理内涵基础上,总结、分析了土壤质量和可持续土地利用管理的相互关系,提出了二者研究的发展趋势。并就土壤质量研究如何在可持续土地利用管理中发挥重要作用,以及目前存在的问题等做了探讨。     

Coupling Input‐Output Tables with Macro‐Life Cycle Assessment to Assess Worldwide Impacts of Biofuels Transport Policies

Many countries see biofuels as a replacement to fossil fuels to mitigate climate change. Nevertheless, some concerns remain about the overall benefits of biofuels policies. More comprehensive tools seem required to evaluate indirect effects of biofuel policies. This article proposes a method to evaluate large‐scale biofuel policies that is based on life cycle assessment (LCA), environmental extensions of input‐output (I‐O) tables, and a general equilibrium model. The method enables the assessment of indirect environmental effects of biofuels policies, including land‐use changes (LUCs), in the context of economic and demographic growth. The method is illustrated with a case study involving two scenarios. The first one describes the evolution of the world economy from 2006 to 2020 under business as usual (BAU) conditions (including demographic and dietary preferences changes), and the second integrates biofuel policies in the United States and the European Union (EU). Results show that the biofuel scenario, originally designed to mitigate climate change, results in more greenhouse gas emissions when compared to the BAU scenario. This is mainly due to emissions associated with global LUCs. The case study shows that the method enables a broader consideration for environmental effects of biofuel policies than usual LCA: Global economic variations calculated by a general equilibrium economic model and LUC emissions can be evaluated. More work is needed, however, to include new biofuel production technologies and reduce the uncertainty of the method.     

Opportunities for avoidance of land‐use change through substitution of soya bean meal and cereals in European livestock diets with bioethanol coproducts

An analysis is presented which quantifies the potential for distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS, a coproduct of wheat bioethanol production) to replace soya bean meal (SBM) and cereals in livestock rations. A major proportion of the SBM imported into Europe as a protein‐rich feedstuff for livestock comes from South America, where land‐use change (LUC) is associated with high carbon emissions. Production of DDGS can therefore reduce LUC in South America by substitution of SBM in animal feed. The analysis indicates that a single bioethanol distillery processing 1 million tonnes of wheat, and producing ca. 330 000 tonnes of DDGS per annum, would substitute at least 136 493 tonnes of whole soya beans grown on 47 725 ha of land, and save greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 0.63 million tonnes CO₂ per annum. By growing sugar beet and wheat in an average ratio of 0.06 : 0.94 on 1 ha of land in Europe, the net area of agricultural land required to produce feed ingredients equivalent to 6.08 t of sugar beet pulp (SBP) and 1.72 t of DDGS associated with 2363 L of bioethanol, is reduced to 0.40 ha. This accounts for 0.42 ha of soya that is not required when DDGS displaces SBM, and 0.18 ha of wheat that is not required when DDGS and SBP displace wheat in livestock rations.     

武汉市农地非市场价值评估

估算农地资源的非市场价值,将其纳入资源成本核算体系,不仅能够弥补市场机制作用不足给农地城市流转决策带来的影响,而且通过提高土地资源农业利用的比较效益,能够起到缓解农地流失的作用。运用条件价值评估法对武汉市不同类型农地的非市场价值进行估算,在对471份有效问卷进行统计分析后的研究表明：（1）随着农地保护意识的增强,武汉居民已经意识到农地资源非市场价值的存在,83．65％的受访居民对农地保护有正的支付意愿;（2）从居民参与农地保护的支付意愿（Willingness to pay,WTP）出发,全市居民每年保护农地的支付意愿总价值为30．0035×10^8元,折合单位hm^2农地的非市场价值为116154元;（3）从农民作为农地保护执行主体参与农地保护、接受政府补偿（willingness to accept,WTA）的角度出发,农地非市场价值16447．57元／hm^2,是目前国家鼓励农民种植粮食作物发放补贴（中稻225元／（hm^2·a^-1）,折合无限年期价值4978元／hm^2）的3．30倍;（4）从城市居民作为农地保护的间接受益者,假设城市周边农地被城市建设用地征收后带来环境损失,城市居民为接受征地计划、家庭每年愿意接受政府补偿（willingness to accept,WTA）的角度出发,平均每户家庭年均需要接受政府补偿8612元,按当前城市居民户数计算,全市城市居民每年对农地损失的受偿接受金额为109．5685×10^8元,折合单位hm^2农地非市场价值42．42×10^4元。     

Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China's forest ecosystems

Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China's forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10‐km‐resolution gridded historical data sets (tropospheric O₃ concentrations, climate variability/change, and other environmental factors such as land‐cover/land‐use change (LCLUC), increasing CO₂ and nitrogen deposition), we conducted nine simulation experiments to: (1) investigate the temporo‐spatial patterns of NPP and NCE in China's forest ecosystems from 1961–2005; and (2) quantify the effects of tropospheric O₃ pollution alone or in combination with climate variability and other environmental stresses on forests' NPP and NCE. Results China's forests acted as a carbon sink during 1961–2005 as a result of the combined effects of O₃, climate, CO₂, nitrogen deposition and LCLUC. However, simulated results indicated that elevated O₃ caused a 7.7% decrease in national carbon storage, with O₃‐induced reductions in NCE (Pg C year^?1) ranging from 0.4–43.1% among different forest types. Sensitivity experiments showed that climate change was the dominant factor in controlling changes in temporo‐spatial patterns of annual NPP. The combined negative effects of O₃ pollution and climate change on NPP and NCE could be largely offset by the positive fertilization effects of nitrogen deposition and CO₂. Main conclusions In the future, tropospheric O₃ should be taken into account in order to fully understand the variations of carbon sequestration capacity of forests and assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and air pollution. Reducing air pollution in China is likely to increase the resilience of forests to climate change. This paper offers the first estimate of how prevention of air pollution can help to increase forest productivity and carbon sequestration in China's forested ecosystems.