How was the French BSE epidemic underestimated?

In a previous study, we showed that estimates of the BSE epidemic in France were censored by cattle mortality and by a lack of diagnosis. Indeed, we estimated that 51 300 cattle were infected by the BSE agent between 1987 and 1997, whereas only 103 clinical BSE cases were detected by the passive surveillance system up to June 2000. The question thus arises as to the part played by each form of censorship in this underestimation. Here, using an updated cattle survival distribution, we estimated that 44 800 cattle were infected by the BSE agent between 1987 and 1997, and that 7100 of them showed clinical signs of BSE up to June 2000, showing the low efficiency of the surveillance system. Moreover, between 2087 and 5980 'infectious' cattle, with clinical or preclinical BSE, entered the human food chain before July 1996, the date of the ban on specified bovine offal.     

How will bioinformatics influence metabolic engineering?

Ten microbial genomes have been fully sequenced to date, and the sequencing of many more genomes is expected to be completed before the end of the century. The assignment of function to open reading frames (ORFs) is progressing, and for some genomes over 70% of functional assignments have been made. The majority of the assigned ORFs relate to metabolic functions. Thus, the complete genetic and biochemical functions of a number of microbial cells may be soon available. From a metabolic engineering standpoint, these developments open a new realm of possibilities. Metabolic analysis and engineering strategies can now be built on a sound genomic basis. An important question that now arises; how should these tasks be approached? Flux-balance analysis (FBA) has the potential to play an important role. It is based on the fundamental principle of mass conservation. It requires only the stoichiometric matrix, the metabolic demands, and some strain specific parameters. Importantly, no enzymatic kinetic data is required. In this article, we show how the genomically defined microbial metabolic genotypes can be analyzed by FBA. Fundamental concepts of metabolic genotype, metabolic phenotype, metabolic redundancy and robustness are defined and examples of their use given. We discuss the advantage of this approach, and how FBA is expected to find uses in the near future. FBA is likely to become an important analysis tool for genomically based approaches to metabolic engineering, strain design, and development.     

How long will long-term potentiation last?

The paramount feature of long-term potentiation (LTP) as a memory mechanism is its characteristic persistence over time. Although the basic phenomenology of LTP persistence was established 30 years ago, new insights have emerged recently about the extent of LTP persistence and its regulation by activity and experience. Thus, it is now evident that LTP, at least in the dentate gyrus, can either be decremental, lasting from hours to weeks, or stable, lasting months or longer. Although mechanisms engaged during the induction of LTP regulate its subsequent persistence, the maintenance of LTP is also governed by activity patterns post-induction, whether induced experimentally or generated by experience. These new findings establish dentate gyrus LTP as a useful model system for studying the mechanisms governing the induction, maintenance and interference with long-term memory, including very long-term memory lasting months or longer. The challenge is to study LTP persistence in other brain areas, and to relate, if possible, the properties and regulation of LTP maintenance to these same properties of the information that is actually stored in those regions.     

How can ecologists thrive during the global environmental crisis? Lessons from the ancient world

When striving to meet an immense challenge, how can we, as restoration ecologists, flourish? Given the ongoing environmental crisis, it is normal to experience ecological grief and discouragement. This article discusses how insights from the ancient philosophy of Stoicism can help environmental practitioners navigate these troubling times. To overcome ecological grief, ecologists can draw on three tenets from Stoic thought: distinguishing between what we can and cannot control; recognizing our contribution as part of a broader community of environmental managers; and focusing on the intent of our actions. We believe that these ideas can help ecologists shoulder the emotional burden of modern environmental practice and focus on working toward a diverse and resilient biosphere.     

How will oil palm expansion affect biodiversity?

Oil palm is one of the world's most rapidly increasing crops. We assess its contribution to tropical deforestation and review its biodiversity value. Oil palm has replaced large areas of forest in Southeast Asia, but land-cover change statistics alone do not allow an assessment of where it has driven forest clearance and where it has simply followed it. Oil palm plantations support much fewer species than do forests and often also fewer than other tree crops. Further negative impacts include habitat fragmentation and pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions. With rising demand for vegetable oils and biofuels, and strong overlap between areas suitable for oil palm and those of most importance for biodiversity, substantial biodiversity losses will only be averted if future oil palm expansion is managed to avoid deforestation.     

Croatia: still a low-level HIV epidemic?--seroprevalence study

Central Europe is a region with a low prevalence of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Until the end of 2007, 663 HIV cases were recorded in Croatia, almost exclusively among most at-risk populations. The aim of this research was to determine the HIV prevalence among most at-risk populations and the level of the HIV epidemic in Croatia. According to the World Health Organization classification there are three levels of HIV epidemics: generalized (prevalence in general population > 1%), concentrated (prevalence in general population < 1% and prevalence in at least one of the most at-risk populations > 5%) and low-level epidemic (prevalence in general population < 1% and prevalence in each most at-risk population < 5%). This was a research with convenience samples of most at-risk populations. The respondents were recruited by their peers, all non-governmental organizations that provide services for most at-risk populations and the researchers. Sera were tested using the fourth generation enzyme-linked fluorescent assay (EIA test) and reactive test were confirmed using the Western Blot test. In this research, the highest HIV prevalence was found within the men who have sex with men group (7/232 = 3%, 95% CI = 1.3-6.3%) and commercial sex workers (1/70 = 1.4%, 95% CI = 1-7.8%). In these samples we were unable to determine whether Croatia is facing a low-level epidemic due to the fact that the prevalences were not statistically significantly lower than 5% (p = 0.115 and p = 0.1, respectively). For the remaining samples the prevalence was statistically significantly lower than 5%, which points to a low-level epidemic. The prevalences in these samples were 7/593 = 1.2% (95% CI = 0.5-2.4%) in people with more than two sexual partners within the last 12 months, 2/249 = 0.8% (95% CI = 0-2.9%) in people with sexually transmitted infections in history, 2/317 = 0.6% (95% CI = 0-2.2%) in clients of sexual workers, 2/323 = 0.6% (95% CI = 0-2.2%) in injecting drug users and 0.2% (95% CI = 0-1%) in the sample of migrant workers. Based on the results of this survey, Croatia would be classified as having a low-level HIV epidemic although the confidence limits in two most-at-risk groups, men who have sex with men and commercial sex workers, overlap 5%.     

How does imperviousness impact the urban rainfall-runoff process under various storm cases?

Dramatic changes in imperviousness exert significant influence on the rainfall-runoff process in urban catchments. In urban rainwater management, imperviousness is generally adopted as an effective indicator for assessing potential runoff risk. However, the effects of imperviousness on rainfall-runoff at the scale of small urbanized drainage areas have not been fully determined, particularly when various storm characteristics are considered. In this paper, a model-based analysis is conducted in a typical urban residential catchment in Beijing, China, in which 69 subareas are delineated within the catchment as the basic drainage units. Two metrics, total impervious area (TIA) and directly connected impervious area (DCIA), are employed to quantify the spatial characteristics of imperviousness of the subareas. Three runoff variables within the delineated subareas including total runoff depth (Q_t), peak runoff depth (Q_p), and lag time (T_lag) are simulated by using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to represent the specific rainfall-runoff characteristics. Moreover, model input storms are designated to several typical flood-induced rainfall events with varying amounts, locations of rainfall peak, and durations for holistic assessment of imperviousness. Regression analyses are conducted to explore the contributions and relative significances of impervious metrics in predicting runoff variables under various storm cases. The results indicate that the performances of imperviousness with fine spatial scale (<1 ha) and heavy rainfall conditions (>34 mm) may vary markedly according to storm conditions. Specifically, TIA rather than DCIA acts as a dominate factor affecting total runoff, and its significance maintains relatively stable with various storm conditions. In addition, the combined use of both TIA and DCIA are more effective for predicting peak runoff than that using a single impervious metric; however, rainfall amount, peak location, and duration alter the contribution gaps between TIA and DCIA and the overall performance of the regression model. Moreover, DCIA is more likely to affect runoff lag time without the contribution of TIA; however, an increase in rainfall peak ratio or duration will significantly limit its performance. These results can provide insight into the hydrologic performance of imperviousness, which is essential for landscape design and runoff regulation in small urban catchments.     

How many polymorphic marker genes will it take to span the human genome?

It is desirable to know how many polymorphic marker loci will be required so that every human genetic locus can be mapped by classical pedigree methods to a specific region of a specific chromosome. Assuming a total autosomal map length of 33 morgans, it would take only about 33/(2d) evenly spaced markers for every locus to be within d morgans of a marker. Taking into account that the markers will fall randomly along the genome, we show that a much larger number of such loci will have to be isolated and tested before the goal of a saturated gene map is reached.     

Adolescent sexuality and the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé, Cameroon

Adolescents are the focus of many interventions that aim to prevent HIV transmission. In order for these interventions to be effective, it is essential to understand adolescents' sexual behaviour. Using data collected in Yaoundé, Cameroon, in 1997, the study analysed risk exposure and HIV prevalence among 426 men and 510 women aged 15-24. Although risky behaviours seem to be more prevalent among young men, their HIV prevalence remains under 1%. In contrast, HIV prevalence is high among young women (7.5%), even those who report having had few sexual partners. Mixing patterns among sexual partners, and especially the age difference between men and women, do not seem to be sufficient to explain the large male-female discrepancy in HIV prevalence that is evident in these data. The results are therefore probably due to a greater susceptibility to infection of young women than men. This study highlights the necessity of reinforcing prevention campaigns among youth and fighting the obstacles that continue to impede the use of condoms in this population.     

How can the complex epidemiology of malaria in India impact its elimination?

Malaria is a human health hazard in the tropical and subtropical zones of the globe and is poised to be eliminated by the year 2030. Despite a decrease in incidence in the past two decades, many endemic countries, including India, report cases regularly. The epidemiology of malaria in India is unique owing to several features of the Plasmodium parasites, Anopheles vectors, ecoepidemiological situations conducive to disease transmission, and susceptible humans living in rural and forested areas. Limitations in public health reach, and poor health-seeking behaviour of vulnerable populations living in hard-to-reach areas, add to the problem. We bring all of these factors together in a comprehensive framework and opine that, in spite of complexities, targeted elimination of malaria in India is achievable with planned programmatic approaches.     

How far will you go to sense voltage?

Despite tremendous progress in the study of voltage-gated channels, the molecular mechanism underlying voltage sensing has remained a matter of debate. We review five new studies that make major progress in the field. The studies employ a battery of distinct approaches that have the common aim of measuring the motion of the voltage sensor. We interpret the results in light of the recent crystal structure of the mammalian potassium channel Kv1.2. We focus on the transmembrane movement of the voltage sensor as a key element to the detection of membrane potential and to the control of channel gating.     

Mass spectrometry imaging: How will it affect clinical research in the future?

Introduction: Mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is a label free, multiplex imaging technology able to simultaneously record the distributions of 100’s to 1000’s of species, and which may be configured to study metabolites, lipids, glycans, peptides, and proteins simply by changing the tissue preparation protocol.

Areas covered: The capability of MSI to complement established histopathological practice through the identification of biomarkers for differential diagnosis, patient prognosis, and response to therapy; the capability of MSI to annotate tissues on the basis of each pixel’s mass spectral signature; the development of reproducible MSI through multicenter studies.

Expert commentary: We discuss how MSI can be combined with microsampling/microdissection technologies in order to investigate, with more depth of coverage, the molecular changes uncovered by MSI.     

How fast could HIV change gene frequencies in the human population?

Infectious diseases have the potential to act as strong forces for genetic selection on the populations they affect. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a prime candidate to impose such genetic selection owing to the vast number of people it infects and the varying susceptibility of different human leucocyte antigen (HLA) types to HIV disease progression. We have constructed a model of HIV infection that differentiates between these HLA types, and have used reported estimates of the number of people infected with HIV and the different rates of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) to provide a lower bound estimate on the length of time it would take for HIV to impose major genetic change in humans. We find that an HIV infection similar to that currently affecting sub-Saharan Africa could not yet have caused more than a 3 per cent decrease in the proportion of individuals who progress quickly to disease. Such an infection is unlikely to cause major genetic change (defined as a decrease in the proportion of quickly progressing individuals to under 50 per cent of their starting proportion) until 400 years have passed since HIV emergence. However, in very severely affected populations, there is a chance of observing such major genetic changes after another 50 years.