Parameter estimation in a Gompertzian stochastic model for tumor growth

The problem of estimating parameters in the drift coefficient when a diffusion process is observed continuously requires some specific assumptions. In this paper, we consider a stochastic version of the Gompertzian model that describes in vivo tumor growth and its sensitivity to treatment with antiangiogenic drugs. An explicit likelihood function is obtained, and we discuss some properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the intrinsic growth rate of the stochastic Gompertzian model. Furthermore, we show some simulation results on the behavior of the corresponding discrete estimator. Finally, an application is given to illustrate the estimate of the model parameters using real data.     

A stochastic formulation of the gompertzian growth model for in vitro bactericidal kinetics: parameter estimation and extinction probability

Time-kill curves have frequently been employed to study the antimicrobial effects of antibiotics. The relevance of pharmacodynamic modeling to these investigations has been emphasized in many studies of bactericidal kinetics. Stochastic models are needed that take into account the randomness of the mechanisms of both bacterial growth and bacteria-drug interactions. However, most of the models currently used to describe antibiotic activity against microorganisms are deterministic. In this paper we examine a stochastic differential equation representing a stochastic version of a pharmacodynamic model of bacterial growth undergoing random fluctuations, and derive its solution, mean value and covariance structure. An explicit likelihood function is obtained both when the process is observed continuously over a period of time and when data is sampled at time points, as is the custom in these experimental conditions. Some asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are discussed. The model is applied to analyze in vitro time-kill data and to estimate model parameters; the probability of the bacterial population size dropping below some critical threshold is also evaluated. Finally, the relationship between bacterial extinction probability and the pharmacodynamic parameters estimated is discussed.     

An empirical Bayes method for estimating epistatic effects of quantitative trait loci

Summary .   The genetic variance of a quantitative trait is often controlled by the segregation of multiple interacting loci. Linear model regression analysis is usually applied to estimating and testing effects of these quantitative trait loci (QTL). Including all the main effects and the effects of interaction (epistatic effects), the dimension of the linear model can be extremely high. Variable selection via stepwise regression or stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) is the common procedure for epistatic effect QTL analysis. These methods are computationally intensive, yet they may not be optimal. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) method is computationally more efficient than the above methods. As a result, it has been widely used in regression analysis for large models. However, LASSO has never been applied to genetic mapping for epistatic QTL, where the number of model effects is typically many times larger than the sample size. In this study, we developed an empirical Bayes method (E-BAYES) to map epistatic QTL under the mixed model framework. We also tested the feasibility of using LASSO to estimate epistatic effects, examined the fully Bayesian SSVS, and reevaluated the penalized likelihood (PENAL) methods in mapping epistatic QTL. Simulation studies showed that all the above methods performed satisfactorily well. However, E-BAYES appears to outperform all other methods in terms of minimizing the mean-squared error (MSE) with relatively short computing time. Application of the new method to real data was demonstrated using a barley dataset.     

A nonlinear structured population model of tumor growth with quiescence

A nonlinear structured cell population model of tumor growth is considered. The model distinguishes between two types of cells within the tumor: proliferating and quiescent. Within each class the behavior of individual cells depends on cell size, whereas the probabilities of becoming quiescent and returning to the proliferative cycle are in addition controlled by total tumor size. The asymptotic behavior of solutions of the full nonlinear model, as well as some linear special cases, is investigated using spectral theory of positive simigroup of operators. Supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DMS-8722947     

Use of deterministic sampling for exploring likelihoods in linkage analysis for quantitative traits

Deterministic sampling was used to numerically evaluate the expected log-likelihood surfaces of QTL-marker linkage models in large pedigrees with simple structures. By calculating the expected values of likelihoods, questions of power of experimental designs, bias in parameter estimates, approximate lower-bound standard errors of estimates and correlations among estimates, and suitability of statistical models were addressed. Examples illustrated that bracket markers around the QTL approximately halved the standard error of the recombination fraction between the QTL and the marker, although they did not affect the standard error of the QTL's effect, that overestimation of the distance between the markers caused overestimation of the distance between the QTL and marker, that more parameters in the model did not affect the accuracy of parameter estimates, that there was a moderate positive correlation between the estimates of the QTL effect and its recombination distance from the marker, and that selective genotyping did not introduce bias into the estimates of the parameters. The method is suggested as a useful tool for exploring the power and accuracy of QTL linkage experiments, and the value of alternative statistical models, whenever the likelihood of the model can be written explictly.     

与偏分离位点连锁的QTL作图的统计方法

提出了一种统计方法,可以估计与偏分离位点连锁的QTL的位置和效应。该方法利用回交群体中呈现偏分离的分子标记,首先用最大似然法对偏分离位点与标记位点之间的重组率和配子存活率进行估计,然后用区间作图法估计加性-显性模型下QTL的位置和效应参数。该方法可用于对常规作图研究中表现偏分离的标记进行分析,以帮助我们发现新的偏分离基因（或不育基因）和数量性状位点。     

Cancer stem cells as the engine of unstable tumor progression

Genomic instability is considered by many authors the key engine of tumorigenesis. However, mounting evidence indicates that a small population of drug resistant cancer cells can also be a key component of tumor progression. Such cancer stem cells would define a compartment effectively acting as the source of most tumor cells. Here we study the interplay between these two conflicting components of cancer dynamics using two types of tissue architecture. Both mean field and multicompartment models are studied. It is shown that tissue architecture affects the pattern of cancer dynamics and that unstable cancers spontaneously organize into a heterogeneous population of highly unstable cells. This dominant population is in fact separated from the low-mutation compartment by an instability gap, where almost no cancer cells are observed. The possible implications of this prediction are discussed.     

An approximation method for estimating cell loss from a growing tumor

A simple self-consistent calculational scheme is developed for estimating cell loss for a growing tumor (or other population) when the growth fraction can be estimated at regular intervals. This is applied to published data for a particular much-studied Ehrlich ascites tumor. The loss rate is found to be substantially higher than that estimated by previous, less precise means.     

A simulated annealing algorithm for maximum likelihood pedigree reconstruction

The calculation of maximum likelihood pedigrees for related organisms using genotypic data is considered. The problem is formulated so that the domain of optimization is a permutation space. This is a feature shared by the travelling salesman problem, for which simulated annealing is known to be effective. Using this technique it is found that pedigrees can be reconstructed with minimal error using genotypic data of a quality currently realizable. In complex pedigrees accurate reconstruction can be done with no a priori age or sex information. For smaller numbers of individuals a method of efficiently enumerating all admissible pedigrees of nonzero likelihood is given.     

Finite mixture modeling with mixture outcomes using the EM algorithm

This paper discusses the analysis of an extended finite mixture model where the latent classes corresponding to the mixture components for one set of observed variables influence a second set of observed variables. The research is motivated by a repeated measurement study using a random coefficient model to assess the influence of latent growth trajectory class membership on the probability of a binary disease outcome. More generally, this model can be seen as a combination of latent class modeling and conventional mixture modeling. The EM algorithm is used for estimation. As an illustration, a random-coefficient growth model for the prediction of alcohol dependence from three latent classes of heavy alcohol use trajectories among young adults is analyzed.     

The full EM algorithm for the MLEs of QTL effects and positions and their estimated variances in multiple-interval mapping

The advent of complete genetic linkage maps of DNA markers has made systematic studies of mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in experimental organisms feasible. The method of multiple-interval mapping provides an appropriate way for mapping QTL using genetic markers. However, efficient algorithms for the computation involved remain to be developed. In this article, a full EM algorithm for the simultaneous computation of the MLEs of QTL effects and positions is developed. EM-based formulas are derived for computing the observed Fisher information matrix. The full EM algorithm is compared with an ECM algorithm developed by Kao and Zeng (1997, Biometrics 53, 653-665). The validity of the inverted observed Fisher information matrix as an estimate of the variance matrix of the MLEs is demonstrated by a simulation study.     

Modeling and testing treated tumor growth using cubic smoothing splines

Human tumor xenograft models are often used in preclinical study to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of a certain compound or a combination of certain compounds. In a typical human tumor xenograft model, human carcinoma cells are implanted to subjects such as severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice. Treatment with test compounds is initiated after tumor nodule has appeared, and continued for a certain time period. Tumor volumes are measured over the duration of the experiment. It is well known that untreated tumor growth may follow certain patterns, which can be described by certain mathematical models. However, the growth patterns of the treated tumors with multiple treatment episodes are quite complex, and the usage of parametric models is limited. We propose using cubic smoothing splines to describe tumor growth for each treatment group and for each subject, respectively. The proposed smoothing splines are quite flexible in modeling different growth patterns. In addition, using this procedure, we can obtain tumor growth and growth rate over time for each treatment group and for each subject, and examine whether tumor growth follows certain growth pattern. To examine the overall treatment effect and group differences, the scaled chi-squared test statistics based on the fitted group-level growth curves are proposed. A case study is provided to illustrate the application of this method, and simulations are carried out to examine the performances of the scaled chi-squared tests.     

Tumor models for prostate cancer exemplified by fibroblast growth factor 8-induced tumorigenesis and tumor progression

Prostate cancer is a very common malignancy among Western males. Although most tumors are indolent and grow slowly, some grow and metastasize aggressively. Because prostate cancer growth is usually androgen-dependent, androgen ablation offers a therapeutic option to treat post-resection tumor recurrence or primarily metastasized prostate cancer. However, patients often relapse after the primary response to androgen ablation therapy, and there is no effective cure for cases of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The mechanisms of tumor growth in CRPC are poorly understood. Although the androgen receptors (ARs) remain functional in CRPC, other mechanisms are clearly activated (e.g., disturbed growth factor signaling). Results from our laboratory and others have shown that dysregulation of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling, including FGF receptor 1 (FGFR1) activation and FGF8b overexpression, has an important role in prostate cancer growth and progression. Several experimental models have been developed for prostate tumorigenesis and various stages of tumor progression. These models include genetically engineered mice and rats, as well as induced tumors and xenografts in immunodeficient mice. The latter was created using parental and genetically modified cell lines. All of these models greatly helped to elucidate the roles of different genes in prostate carcinogenesis and tumor progression. Recently, patient-derived xenografts have been studied for possible use in testing individual, specific responses of tumor tissue to different treatment options. Feasible and functional CRPC models for drug responsiveness analysis and the development of effective therapies targeting the FGF signaling pathway and other pathways in prostate cancer are being actively investigated.     

Property and efficiency of the maximum likelihood method for molecular phylogeny

Summary The maximum likelihood (ML) method for constructing phylogenetic trees (both rooted and unrooted trees) from DNA sequence data was studied. Although there is some theoretical problem in the comparison of ML values conditional for each topology, it is possible to make a heuristic argument to justify the method. Based on this argument, a new algorithm for estimating the ML tree is presented. It is shown that under the assumption of a constant rate of evolution, the ML method and UPGMA always give the same rooted tree for the case of three operational taxonomic units (OTUs). This also seems to hold approximately for the case with four OTUs. When we consider unrooted trees with the assumption of a varying rate of nucleotide substitution, the efficiency of the ML method in obtaining the correct tree is similar to those of the maximum parsimony method and distance methods. The ML method was applied to Brown et al.'s data, and the tree topology obtained was the same as that found by the maximum parsimony method, but it was different from those obtained by distance methods.     

Ascertainment: An Overwiew of the Classical Segregation Analysis Model for Independent Sibships

Several different methodologies for parameter estimation under various ascertainment sampling schemes have been proposed in the past. In this article, some of the methodologies that have been proposed for independent sibships under the classical segregation analysis model are synthesized, and the general likelihoods derived for single, multiple and complete ascertainment. The issue of incorporating the sibship size distribution into the analysis is addressed, and the effect of conditioning the likelihood on the observed sibship sizes is discussed. It is shown that when the number of probands in a sibship is not specified, the corresponding likelihood can be used for a broader class of ascertainment schemes than is subsumed by the classical model.     

Genetic and molecular dissection of quantitative traits in rice

Recent progress in the generation of a molecular genetic map and markers for rice has made possible a new phase of mapping individual genes associated with complex traits. This type of analysis is often referred to as quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis. Increasing numbers of QTL analyses are providing enormous amounts of information about QTLs, such as the numbers of loci involved, their chromosomal locations and gene effects. Clarification of genetic bases of complex traits has a big impact not only on fundamental research on rice plant development, but it also has practical benefits for rice breeding. In this review, we summarize recent progress of QTL analysis of several complex traits in rice. A strategy for positional cloning of genes at QTLs is also discussed.