Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Profound climatic effects on two East Asian black-throated tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), revealed by ecological niche models and phylogeographic analysis

Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis-concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals) and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM) and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis-concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions

Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution.     

Past climate changes explain the phylogeography of Vitellaria paradoxa over Africa

The evolution of the savanna biome has been deeply marked by repeated contraction/expansion phases due to climate perturbations during the Quaternary period. In this study, we investigated the impact of the last glacial maximum (LGM) on the present genetic pattern of Vitellaria paradoxa (shea tree), a major African savanna tree. A range-wide sampling of the species enabled us to sample 374 individuals from 71 populations distributed throughout sub-Sahelian Africa. Trees were genotyped using 3 chloroplasts and 12 nuclear microsatellites, and were sequenced for 2 polymorphic chloroplast intergenic spacers. Analyses of genetic diversity and structure were based on frequency-based and Bayesian methods. Potential distributions of V. paradoxa at present, during the LGM and the last interglacial period, were examined using DIVA-GIS ecological niche modelling (ENM). Haplotypic and allelic richness varied significantly across the range according to chloroplast and nuclear microsatellites, which pointed to higher diversity in West Africa. A high but contrasted level of differentiation was revealed among populations with a clear phylogeographic signal, with both nuclear (F(ST) = 0.21; R(ST) = 0.28; R(ST) > R(ST) (permuted)) and chloroplast simple sequence repeats (SSRs) (G(ST) = 0.81; N(ST) = 0.90; N(ST) > N(ST) (permuted)). We identified a strong geographically related structure separating western and eastern populations, and a substructure in the eastern part of the area consistent with subspecies distinction. Using ENM, we deduced that perturbations during the LGM fragmented the potential eastern distribution of shea tree, but not its distribution in West Africa. Our main results suggest that climate variations are the major factor explaining the genetic pattern of V. paradoxa.     

How did the exposed seafloor function in postglacial northward range expansion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kalopanax septemlobus</Emphasis>? Evidence from ecological niche modelling

We attempted to clarify how coastal lands temporarily exposed during the last glacial maximum (LGM) contributed to the northward colonisation of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi during the postglacial period in the Japanese Archipelago. Distribution records in 30-arc-s pixels were related to bioclimate variables using the maximum entropy technique to model the ecological niche of this species. Bioclimatic conditions in the exposed coastal lands during the LGM were reconstructed based on simulated palaeoclimate and fine-resolution marine topography. Potential distribution ranges were then estimated under the climatic conditions during the LGM, mid-Holocene and the present. The ecological niche of this species was influenced mainly by the temperature component of the bioclimates, leading to northward range shift after the LGM as the climate warmed. On average, 26% of the potential range of K. septemlobus during the LGM was located on the exposed seafloor. The northern edges of the species range on both sides of Honshu Island were estimated by up to several hundred kilometres farther north, when compared to the prediction assuming no sea level change. Application of ecological niche modelling provided new insight into the role of exposed seafloor as cryptic glacial refugia for this species, which has never been evidenced by fossil records. In a temperate island system characterised by long coastlines, the northern exposed seafloor would have been more important in terms of harbouring the putative source populations for northward directional colonisation during the postglacial period.     

Combining ecological niche modelling and morphology to assess the range‐wide population genetic structure of bobcats (Lynx rufus)

Despite a broad distribution, general habitat requirements, and a large dispersal potential, bobcats (Lynx rufus) exhibit a genetic division that longitudinally transects central North America. We investigated (1) whether the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 kya) isolated bobcats into refugia and also whether the current climate influences gene flow between the segregate populations and (2) whether the geographical patterns in cranial morphology reflect population identity. We created ecological niche models (ENMs) to evaluate climatic suitability and to estimate distributions of the disparate populations under both historical (LGM) and contemporary conditions. We used two‐dimensional geometric morphometric methods to evaluate variations in the cranium and mandible. These variations were then regressed across geographical variables to assess morphological differences throughout the range of the bobcat. ENMs projected onto LGM climate provided evidence of refugia during the LGM via increased suitability in the north‐west and south‐east portions of this species' range. Contemporarily, our models suggest that the Great Plains may be restricting bobcat migration and gene flow, effectively maintaining disparate populations. Morphological analyses identified a significant linear trend in shape variation across latitudinal and longitudinal gradients rather than distinct morphological divergence between lineages. Similar shape variations, however, did converge in approximate locations of assumed refugia. The findings of the present study provide a robust assessment of the biogeographical considerations for the population genetic structure of bobcats.     

Phylogeography and population dynamics of the white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus) in the North Atlantic

Highly mobile species in the marine environment may be expected to show little differentiation at the population level, but this is often not the case. Instead cryptic population structure is common, and effective conservation will require an understanding of how these patterns evolve. Here we present an assessment from both sides of the North Atlantic of differentiation among populations of a dolphin species that inhabits mainly pelagic waters, the Atlantic white-sided dolphin. We compare eleven putative populations in the western and eastern North Atlantic at mtDNA and microsatellite DNA loci and find reduced nucleotide diversity and signals for historical bottlenecks and post-bottleneck expansions in all regions. We calculate expansion times to have occurred during the early Holocene, following the last glacial maximum (LGM). We find evidence for connectivity among populations from either side of the North Atlantic, and differentiation between putative populations in the far northeast compared with all other areas sampled. Some data suggest the possibility of separate refugia during the LGM explaining this pattern, although ongoing ecological processes may also be a factor. We discuss the implications for developing effective programs of conservation and management in the context of ongoing anthropogenic impact.     

Environmental confirmation of multiple ice age refugia for Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus

The concept of species surviving through quaternary climatic extremes by retreating to glacial refugia, and then evolving genetically during re-population movements of the following interglacial, has been in the literature for over 40 years. Recently, advances in genetic analysis have enabled this concept to be validated and theories regarding population expansions and contractions to be built. For the major Northern Hemisphere species of cod, Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) and Gadus macrocephalus (Pacific cod), genetic analysis has suggested retreat to separate refugia on both sides of their respective ocean basins during the last glacial period. Ecosystem niche modelling has previously confirmed that environmental conditions during the last glacial were compatible with the existence of these separate refugia for Atlantic cod. Here it is shown that such modelling also confirms a reduced core glacial distribution for G. macrocephalus, but probable refugia on either side of the Pacific. Existing mitochondrial DNA analyses suggest two separate glacial populations in the northwest Pacific, which modelling confirms, with predicted separate marine refugia in the land-locked Sea of Japan basin and the Sea of Okhotsk. Existing mitochondrial DNA for the northeast Pacific populations is less conclusive regarding whether there were one or two separate refugia off this coast, and their location. Using environmental niche models this study shows the glacial NE Pacific environment could support two marine refugia, one centred in the Aleutians/Gulf of Alaska and the other off British Columbia. The intervening Cordilleran Ice Sheet, and the glacially sub-aerial and ice-free Queen Charlotte Islands shelf, is hypothesised to have constrained exchange between glacial stocks either side of the Islands. The postulated southern marine refugium is off-shore from an established terrestrial refugium, suggesting greater dependence of species and ecosystems during environmental change. An earth system approach to evolutionary change could enhance understanding of past and future ecosystems.     

Paleodistribution modeling suggests glacial refugia in Scandinavia and out‐of‐Tibet range expansion of the Arctic fox

Quaternary glacial cycles have shaped the geographic distributions and evolution of numerous species in the Arctic. Ancient DNA suggests that the Arctic fox went extinct in Europe at the end of the Pleistocene and that Scandinavia was subsequently recolonized from Siberia, indicating inability to track its habitat through space as climate changed. Using ecological niche modeling, we found that climatically suitable conditions for Arctic fox were found in Scandinavia both during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the mid‐Holocene. Our results are supported by fossil occurrences from the last glacial. Furthermore, the model projection for the LGM, validated with fossil records, suggested an approximate distance of 2000 km between suitable Arctic conditions and the Tibetan Plateau well within the dispersal distance of the species, supporting the recently proposed hypothesis of range expansion from an origin on the Tibetan Plateau to the rest of Eurasia. The fact that the Arctic fox disappeared from Scandinavia despite suitable conditions suggests that extant populations may be more sensitive to climate change than previously thought.     

Ice‐age persistence and genetic isolation of the disjunct distribution of larch in Alaska

Larix laricina (eastern larch, tamarack) is a transcontinental North American conifer with a prominent disjunction in the Yukon isolating the Alaskan distribution from the rest of its range. We investigate whether in situ persistence during the last glacial maximum (LGM) or long‐distance postglacial migration from south of the ice sheets resulted in the modern‐day Alaskan distribution. We analyzed variation in three chloroplast DNA regions of 840 trees from a total of 69 populations (24 new sampling sites situated on both sides of the Yukon range disjunction pooled with 45 populations from a published source) and conducted ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) throughout Canada and United States to hindcast the potential range of L. laricina during the LGM. We uncovered the genetic signature of a long‐term isolation of larch populations in Alaska, identifying three endemic chlorotypes and low levels of genetic diversity. Range‐wide analysis across North America revealed the presence of a distinct Alaskan lineage. Postglacial gene flow across the Yukon divide was unidirectional, from Alaska toward previously glaciated Canadian regions, and with no evidence of immigration into Alaska. Hindcast SDM indicates one of the broadest areas of past climate suitability for L. laricina existed in central Alaska, suggesting possible in situ persistence of larch in Alaska during the LGM. Our results provide the first unambiguous evidence for the long‐term isolation of L. laricina in Alaska that extends beyond the last glacial period and into the present interglacial period. The lack of gene flow into Alaska along with the overall probability of larch occurrence in Alaska being currently lower than during the LGM suggests that modern‐day Alaskan larch populations are isolated climate relicts of broader glacial distributions, and so are particularly vulnerable to current warming trends.     

Transport of North Sea cod larvae into the Skagerrak coastal populations

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is economically one of the world's most important marine species--a species presently suffering from heavy overexploitation throughout its range of distribution. Although not fully understood, the Atlantic cod is believed to be structured into populations in a rather complex manner, whereby both highly migratory and more confined ocean-spawning stocks coexist with stationary coastal populations. Owing to the complex population structure, little is presently known about how overexploitation of offshore stocks may affect other segments of the species. Here, we use microsatellite DNA analyses of coastal and offshore cod in combination with oceanographic modelling to investigate the population structure of Atlantic cod in the North Sea-Skagerrak area and evaluate the potential for larval transport into coastal populations. Our results suggest an extensive but temporally variable drift of offshore cod larvae into coastal populations. In a year (2001) with high inflow of North Sea waters into the Skagerrak we find that juvenile cod caught along the Skagerrak coast are predominantly of North Sea origin, whereas in a year (2000) with low inflow juveniles appear to be of local origin. These findings indicate that offshore cod may influence coastal cod populations over large distances.     

Postglacial recolonization of North America by spadefoot toads: integrating niche and corridor modeling to study species’ range dynamics over geologic time

Understanding the factors that shape species’ distributions is a key topic in biogeography. As climates change, species can either cope with these changes through evolution, plasticity or by shifting their ranges to track the optimal climatic conditions. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread technique in biogeography that estimates the niche of the organism by using occurrences and environmental data to estimate species’ potential distributions. ENMs are often criticized for failing to take species’ dispersal abilities into consideration. Here, we attempt to fill this gap by combining ENMs with dispersal and corridor modeling to study the range dynamics of North American spadefoot toads (Scaphiopodidae) over the Holocene. We first estimated the current and past distributions of spadefoot toads and then estimated their past distributions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. Then, we estimated how each taxon recolonized North American by using dispersal and corridor modeling. By combining these two modeling approaches we were able to 1) estimate the LGM refugia used by the North American spadefoot toads, 2) further refine these projections by estimating which of the putative LGM refugia contributed to the recolonization of North America via dispersal, and 3) estimate the relative influence of each LGM refugium to the current species’ distributions. The models were tested using previously published phylogeographic data, revealing a high degree of congruence between our models and the genetic data. These results suggest that combining ENMs and dispersal modeling over time is a promising approach to investigate both historical and future species’ range dynamics.     

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.     

Patterns of Diversity,Areas of Endemism,and Multiple Glacial Refuges for Freshwater Crabs of the Genus Sinopotamon in China (Decapoda: Brachyura: Potamidae)

Previous research has shown that the geographical distribution patterns of freshwater fishes and amphibians have been influenced by past climatic oscillations in China resulting from Pleistocene glacial activity. However, it remains unknown how these past changes have impacted the present-day distribution of Chinese freshwater crabs. This work describes the diversity and endemism of freshwater crabs belonging to Sinopotamon, a highly speciose genus endemic to China, and evaluates its distribution in terms of topography and past climatic fluctuations. Species diversity within Sinopotamon was found to be concentrated in an area from the northeastern edge of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Jiangnan Hills, and three areas of endemism were identified. Multiple regression analysis between current climatic variables and Sinopotamon diversity suggested that regional annual precipitation, minimum temperature in the coldest month, and annual temperature range significantly influenced species diversity and may explain the diversity patterns of Sinopotamon. A comparison of ecological niche models (ENMs) between current conditions and the last glacial maximum (LGM) showed that suitable habitat for Sinopotamon in China severely contracted during the LGM. The coincidence of ENMs and the areas of endemism indicated that southeast of the Daba Mountains, and central and southeastern China, are potential Pleistocene refuges for Sinopotamon. The presence of multiple Pleistocene refuges within the range of this genus could further promote inter- and intraspecific differentiations, and may have led to high Sinopotamon species diversity, a high endemism rate and widespread distribution.     

Population genetics of Atlantic cod using amplified single locus minisatellite VNTR analysis

Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua , have been examined extensively over the last two decades using allozyme electrophoresis. More recently, several populations have been studied using mitochondrial DNA (RFLP and sequence) analysis, together with multilocus minisatellite DNA and also microsatellite DNA analyses. The declining status of cod populations in many areas highlights the need for powerful genetic markers capable of discriminating between cod populations, in order to facilitate the design of effective management strategies. Single locus minisatellite DNA analysis offers a potentially powerful alternative to the already mentioned techniques, by combining the power of detection of hypervariable DNA, with non-radioactive techniques in a cost-effective way. As a preliminary investigation into the feasibility of using this approach, four Atlantic cod samples (North Norway, Irish Sea, Scotian Shelf and Northern Cod) were screened at a single polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplified minisatellite locus ( Mmer -AMP2), using primers designed for the flanking regions of a whiting Merlangius merlangus L., minisatellite DNA locus. PCR products separated by agarose electrophoresis and viewed by ethidium bromide fluorescence under UV illumination, consisted of one or two bands per individual (corresponding to homozygotes and hétérozygotes, respectively). Twenty-two alleles were resolved in 119 cod, and sample heterozygosity ranged from 0.76 to 0.90. Samples from opposite sides of the Atlantic showed highly significant differences in allelic composition. The results suggest that single locus minisatellite DNA analysis may be of substantial benefit to furthering our knowledge of the population genetics of Atlantic cod.     

Reevaluation of a classic phylogeographic barrier: new techniques reveal the influence of microgeographic climate variation on population divergence

We evaluated the mtDNA divergence and relationships within Geomys pinetis to assess the status of formerly recognized Geomys taxa. Additionally, we integrated new hypothesis‐based tests in ecological niche models (ENM) to provide greater insight into causes for divergence and potential barriers to gene flow in Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, and Georgia). Our DNA sequence dataset confirmed and strongly supported two distinct lineages within G. pinetis occurring east and west of the ARD. Divergence date estimates showed that eastern and western lineages diverged about 1.37 Ma (1.9 Ma–830 ka). Predicted distributions from ENMs were consistent with molecular data and defined each population east and west of the ARD with little overlap. Niche identity and background similarity tests were statistically significant suggesting that ENMs from eastern and western lineages are not identical or more similar than expected based on random localities drawn from the environmental background. ENMs also support the hypothesis that the ARD represents a ribbon of unsuitable climate between more suitable areas where these populations are distributed. The estimated age of divergence between eastern and western lineages of G. pinetis suggests that the divergence was driven by climatic conditions during Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. The ARD at the contact zone of eastern and western lineages of G. pinetis forms a significant barrier promoting microgeographic isolation that helps maintain ecological and genetic divergence.     

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of Asian populations of the great tit Parus major: evidence from phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche models

Different scales and frequencies of glaciations developed in Europe and Asia during the Pleistocene. Because species’ responses to climate change are influenced by interactive factors including ecology and local topography, the pattern and tempo of species diversification may vary significantly across regions. The great tit Parus major is a widespread Eurasian passerine with a range that encircles the central Asian desert and high‐altitude areas of the Tibetan Plateau. A number of genetic studies have assessed the effect of paleo‐climate changes on the distribution of the European population. However, none have comprehensively addressed how paleo‐climate change affected the distribution of the great tit in China, an apparent hotspot of P. major subspecific diversity. Here, we describe likely paleo‐climatic effects on P. major populations in China based on a combination of phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 28 populations (213 individuals), and downloaded 112 sequences from outside its Chinese range. As the first step in clarifying the intra‐specific relationships among haplotypes, we attempted to clarify the divergence and demography of populations in China. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that P. major is comprised of five highly divergent clades with geographic breaks corresponding to steep mountains and dry deserts. A previously undescribed monophyletic clade with high genetic diversity, stable niches and a long and independent evolutionary history was detected in the mountainous areas of southwest China. The estimated times at which these clades diverged was traced back to the Early‐Middle Pleistocene (2.19–0.61 mya). Contrary to the post‐LGM (the Last Glacial Maximum) expansion of European populations, demographic history indicates that Asian populations expanded before the LGM after which they remained relatively stable or grew slowly through the LGM. ENMs support this conclusion and predict a similar distribution in the present and the LGM. Our genetic and ecological results demonstrate that Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of P. major in China.     

Differences in Salinity Tolerance and Gene Expression Between Two Populations of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in Response to Salinity Stress

Populations of marine fish, even from contrasting habitats, generally show low genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers. Nevertheless, there is increasing evidence for differences in gene expression among populations that may be ascribed to adaptive divergence. Studying variation in salinity tolerance and gene expression among Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from two populations distributed across a steep salinity gradient, we observed high mortality (45% North Sea cod and 80% Baltic Sea cod) in a reciprocal common garden setup. Quantitative RT-PCR assays for expression of hsp70 and Na/K-ATPase α genes demonstrated significant differences in gene regulation within and between populations and treatment groups despite low sample sizes. Most interesting are the significant differences observed in expression of the Na/K-ATPase α gene in gill tissue between North Sea and Baltic cod. The findings strongly suggest that Atlantic cod are adapted to local saline conditions, despite relatively low levels of neutral genetic divergence between populations.     

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12- BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/.