Deciphering Serology to Understand the Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Wildlife

The ecology of infectious disease in wildlife has become a pivotal theme in animal and public health. Studies of infectious disease ecology rely on robust surveillance of pathogens in reservoir hosts, often based on serology, which is the detection of specific antibodies in the blood and is used to infer infection history. However, serological data can be inaccurate for inference to infection history for a variety of reasons. Two major aspects in any serological test can substantially impact results and interpretation of antibody prevalence data: cross-reactivity and cut-off thresholds used to discriminate positive and negative reactions. Given the ubiquitous use of serology as a tool for surveillance and epidemiological modeling of wildlife diseases, it is imperative to consider the strengths and limitations of serological test methodologies and interpretation of results, particularly when using data that may affect management and policy for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in wildlife. Greater consideration of population age structure and cohort representation, serological test suitability and standardized sample collection protocols can ensure that reliable data are obtained for downstream modeling applications to characterize, and evaluate interventions for, wildlife disease systems.     

Summarizing US Wildlife Trade with an Eye Toward Assessing the Risk of Infectious Disease Introduction

The aim of this study was to characterize the role of the USA in the global exchange of wildlife and describe high volume trade with an eye toward prioritizing health risk assessment questions for further analysis. Here we summarize nearly 14 years (2000–2013) of the most comprehensive data available (USFWS LEMIS system), involving 11 billion individual specimens and an additional 977 million kilograms of wildlife. The majority of shipments contained mammals (27%), while the majority of specimens imported were shells (57%) and tropical fish (25%). Most imports were facilitated by the aquatic and pet industry, resulting in one-third of all shipments containing live animals. The importer reported origin of wildlife was 77.7% wild-caught and 17.7% captive-reared. Indonesia was the leading exporter of legal shipments, while Mexico was the leading source reported for illegal shipments. At the specimen level, China was the leading exporter of legal and illegal wildlife imports. The number of annual declared shipments doubled during the period examined, illustrating continually increasing demand, which reinforces the need to scale up capacity for border inspections, risk management protocols and disease surveillance. Most regulatory oversight of wildlife trade is aimed at conservation, rather than prevention of disease introduction.     

On the Identifiability of Transmission Dynamic Models for Infectious Diseases

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important for both biological research and public health applications. It has been widely demonstrated that statistical modeling provides a firm basis for inferring relevant epidemiological quantities from incidence and molecular data. However, the complexity of transmission dynamic models presents two challenges: (1) the likelihood function of the models is generally not computable, and computationally intensive simulation-based inference methods need to be employed, and (2) the model may not be fully identifiable from the available data. While the first difficulty can be tackled by computational and algorithmic advances, the second obstacle is more fundamental. Identifiability issues may lead to inferences that are driven more by prior assumptions than by the data themselves. We consider a popular and relatively simple yet analytically intractable model for the spread of tuberculosis based on classical IS6110 fingerprinting data. We report on the identifiability of the model, also presenting some methodological advances regarding the inference. Using likelihood approximations, we show that the reproductive value cannot be identified from the data available and that the posterior distributions obtained in previous work have likely been substantially dominated by the assumed prior distribution. Further, we show that the inferences are influenced by the assumed infectious population size, which generally has been kept fixed in previous work. We demonstrate that the infectious population size can be inferred if the remaining epidemiological parameters are already known with sufficient precision.     

The Role of Immunotoxic Environmental Contaminants in Facilitating the Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Marine Mammals

A series of high profile outbreaks of newly described diseases in humans, domestic animals and wildlife has attracted widespread interest in the topic of Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs). Marine mammals are no exception: since 1987 several mass mortalities have been observed following infection with viruses previously undescribed in the populations or species in question. As with terrestrial examples, some of these outbreaks have followed either migrations associated with large-scale ecological changes or the introduction of virus from domestic animals. However, marine mammals warrant special concern in the context of emerging infectious diseases: they typically occupy high trophic levels and can therefore be highly contaminated with immunotoxic chemicals. Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), including polychlorinated -biphenyls (PCBs), dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), -dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and related compounds, are demonstrated immunotoxicants in laboratory animals, as well as marine mammals. Immunotoxic contaminants may represent a factor that facilitates disease emergence, and may lead to the creation of susceptible “reservoirs” for new pathogens in contaminated marine mammal populations. The factors underlying the emergence and exchange of pathogens among marine mammals, domestic animals, and humans demand multidisciplinary study and invite regulatory and conservation scrutiny. The complexity of this issue may be best addressed through an integrated human and ecological risk assessment framework.     

The Time Factor in Understanding the Ecology of Wildlife

This study examined the effectiveness of worksheets while learning about biodiversity in a natural history museum. Despite the frequent use of worksheets by school classes during out-of-school activities, their effectiveness in enhancing knowledge acquisition has been addressed by relatively few empirical studies. 148 Austrian grammar school students aged eleven to fifteen took part in the pre- and post-test questionnaire study which included a one-hour learning phase with worksheets in the museum. Results indicate a high learning effect from pre- to post-test. Further analyses show that worksheets contributed to knowledge gain, but this contribution is similar to that afforded by prior knowledge. The design of the worksheet tasks was also important. A closed task setting required the students to look for clearly defined solutions. This led to greater knowledge gains than open worksheet tasks, where the spectrum of possible answers was wider. We concluded that worksheets can be used effectively for acquiring basic knowledge about biodiversity and suggest how to integrate the findings into the design of worksheets for out-of-school learning.     

Operationalising Factors That Explain the Emergence of Infectious Diseases: A Case Study of the Human Campylobacteriosis Epidemic

A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance) to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990–2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990–2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.