Juvenile versus adult competition

A general class of age-structured models based upon the McKendrick/von Foerster equations are used to study intraspecific competition between juveniles and adults. Criteria for the existence and stability of equilibria are obtained and the dependence of equilibrium stability (i.e. equilibrium resilience) on competition coefficients is analyzed for low inherent net reproductive numbers. The results are applied to the question of whether juvenile vs. adult intraspecific competition is stabilizing or destabilizing. Two types of competition are studied. The first, involving suppressed adult fertility due to competition from juveniles, was found to be destabilizing in that equilibrium levels are lowered and equilibrium resilience weakened by increased competition. The second, involving increased juvenile mortality due to competition from adults, was found to be considerably more complicated. While equilibrium levels were again reduced by increased competition, equilibrium resilience can either be weakened or strengthened. A criterion for determining the effects on resilience is derived and several examples are given to illustrate various possibilities in this case.The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Applied Mathematics Division and the Population Biology/Ecology Division of the National Science Foundation under NSF grant No. DMS-8902508Research supported by the Department of Energy under contracts W-7405-ENG-36 and KC-07-01-01     

Two models for competition between age classes

We consider two lumped age-structured models of juvenile against adult competition, one of which is a compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model and one of which is a system of ODEs with delay derived from the McKendrick partial differential equation (PDE) model. Existence and stability of positive equilibria and existence of oscillatory solutions of both models are studied. Using a competition parameter, which measures the intra-specific competition, we investigate the effects of the competitive interactions between juveniles and adults on the dynamics of the population for both models. We find that these effects are different for the two models and discuss the differences from the modeling perspective. The discussion reveals an interesting relation between the length of the maturation period and the vital rates' dependence on the competition parameter.     

Adult Male Density Influences Juvenile Microhabitat Use in a Territorial Lizard

Habitat choice often has strong effects on performance and fitness. For many animals, optimal habitats differ across age or size classes, and individuals shift habitat use through ontogeny. Although many studies document ontogenetic habitat shifts for various taxa, most are observational and do not identify the causal factor of size‐specific habitat variation. Field observations of the brown anole lizard (Anolis sagrei) show that juveniles perch on shorter and thinner vegetation than adults. We hypothesized that this variation is due to adult males forcing smaller juveniles to less preferred habitat. To test this assertion, we manipulated adult male densities in mesh enclosures with artificial trees to examine the response of juvenile microhabitat choice. We found that adult male density had strong effects on juvenile perch height, perch width, and substrate use, suggesting that age‐class competition contributes to the observed ontogenetic differences in habitat choice. We also found that time of day significantly affected juvenile perch height and substrate use. In many cases, our results suggest that juveniles distance themselves from adults using different microhabitats from those used in our control ‘no‐adult’ treatment. However, these findings were often body size dependent and varied depending upon time of day. This study highlights the complexity of juvenile perching behavior and demonstrates the role of intraspecific interactions in shaping habitat use by juvenile animals.     

Alternative dynamical states in stage-structured consumer populations

The population dynamics of a consumer population with an internal structure is investigated. The population is divided into juvenile and adult individuals that consume different resources and do not interfere with each other. Over a broad range of external conditions (varying mortality and different resource levels), alternative stable states exist. These population states correspond to domination of juveniles and domination of adults, respectively. When mortality is varied, hysteresis between the alternative states only occurs if juveniles have more resources than adults. In the opposite case the juvenile-dominated state is stable for all values of mortality, but the adult-dominated state is not. When the population is modelled with more than one juvenile stage, the adult-dominated state becomes a periodic orbit due to a delay in the regulatory mechanism of the population dynamics. It is shown numerically that the stage-structured model converges to a model with continuous size structure for very large numbers of successive juvenile stages.     

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults.In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.     

Diet overlap among size classes of Colorado River cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus) in a high-elevation mountain stream

We examined the taxonomic composition, abundance, and size of food items consumed by young-of-year, juvenile, and adult Colorado River cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus) in order to determine the degree of diet overlap occurring in a relatively unproductive, high-elevation, mountain stream. Overall, we identified 49 Families of insects representing nine Orders, and 4 other Classes of organisms in the diets of the trout sampled and saw no evidence of piscivory. Each size class of fish consumed significantly different taxa and significantly different sizes of food items. However, despite these differences, the proportional similarity index (PSI) indicated that there was considerable overlap in taxa and sizes of organisms consumed by the three size classes. The greatest overlap occurred between young-of-year and juveniles, and between juveniles and adults. Both the relatively high proportion of small items in the adult diet and the slow growth rate of adults in these streams indicate that food may be limiting for adults and that intraspecific competition between adults and smaller size classes may be high.     

Assessing population increase as a possible outcome to management of invasive species

Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when reduced intraspecific pressures increase juvenile survival or maturation rates, leading to increased population size. Overcompensation in response to eradication efforts could derail management efforts, so it would be beneficial to evaluate the likelihood of overcompensation prior to removal. We conducted a series of experiments to examine the potential for overcompensation of a non-native population of the European green crab, Carcinus maenas, which was being removed in Bodega Harbor, California. First, we examined the impact of adults on juvenile survival by measuring adult cannibalism on juveniles in the presence and absence of alternative prey, and the survival of tethered juveniles at varying adult densities. Second, we examined how adult presence affected juvenile short-term foraging and growth rates. Although adult presence reduced juvenile short-term foraging, we detected only minimal cannibalism and found no evidence that adults greatly reduce juvenile growth or survivorship. These results suggest that overcompensation is not likely to occur in this population in response to removal. We assessed this prediction using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with our conclusion from the experiments. This experimental approach which focuses on an organism’s population biology provides a tool to assess capacity for assessing the capacity for overcompensation in management strategies for invasive species.     

Recruiting juvenile damselfish: the process of recruiting into adult colonies in the damselfish Stegastes nigricans

Juveniles of Stegastes nigricans occur in adult colonies, solitarily, and occasionally in juvenile colonies. We concentrated on solitary juveniles and those in adult colonies. We examined the costs and benefits of different settlement strategies, quantified the territory requirements of adults, and investigated the process of how juveniles make the transition to adult territorial fish. An adequate adult territory lies next to those of other adults, is proportional in area to the size of the adult, and contains a refuge tunnel whose entrance is sufficiently large. Compared with solitary juveniles, those <4 cm total length inhabiting adult colonies experienced reduced heterospecific competition for algal food and consequently benefited from a greater density of algae. A cost of recruiting into an adult colony, however, was increased attacks by adults. Juveniles that settled in adult colonies avoided attacks by retreating into small holes inaccessible to adults. As juveniles in adult colonies grew, they were chased less often by adults, whereas they themselves chased adults and heterospecific fish more often. Because territory size correlated with fish size in adult colonies, its area had to expand as the young fish grew, and that expansion was done at the expense of neighbors. Obtaining the space needed by an adult may be possible only when the juvenile settles directly into an adult colony. Juveniles that first settle down solitarily, or in juvenile colonies, may later attempt to enter adult colonies. However, because they do so as larger juveniles, they would have difficulty insinuating themselves into small refuges, which is essential for retreat from the adults. Received in revised form: 4 January 2001 Electronic Publication     

Testicular Size,Mating System,and Maturation Schedules in Wild Anubis and Hamadryas Baboons

We report body mass and testicular size in 258 anubis (Papio anubis or P. hamadryas anubis) and 59 hamadryas (P. hamadryas or P. h. hamadryas) baboons, live-trapped in Ethiopia. As predicted by theories of sexual selection by sperm competition, among hamadryas baboons, which are monandrous, fully adult males have absolutely and relatively smaller testes than those of comparable males among anubis baboons, which are polyandrous. Male hamadryas are also ca. 10% smaller in bodily mass as adults. The intertaxonal difference in adults is due entirely to the fact that in male anubis baboons, testicular and bodily mass continue to grow up to full adulthood–the age at which most males emigrate from their natal troop and initiate a confrontational breeding strategy among unrelated animals. By contrast, male hamadryas baboons, which are usually philopatric, attain adult body mass and testicular size as subadults. In both species, juveniles experience rapid testicular growth peaking in rate at ca. 12kg body mass, but testicular descent and growth starts earlier in hamadryas than in anubis baboons. Juvenile hamadryas baboons have relatively larger testes than their anubis equivalents, perhaps because male philopatry allows the mating strategy of male hamadryas baboons to be initiated during juvenile life and therefore permits some sperm competition between juveniles and adults.     

Density‐dependent polyphenism and geographic variation in size among two populations of lubber grasshoppers (Romalea microptera)

1. Density‐dependent phase polyphenism occurs when changes in density during the juvenile stages result in a developmental shift from one phenotype to another. Density‐dependent phase polyphenism is common among locusts (Orthoptera: Acrididae). 2. Previously, we demonstrated a longitudinal geographic cline in adult body size (western populations = small adults; eastern populations = large adults) in the eastern lubber grasshopper (Romalea microptera) in south Florida. As lubbers are confamilial with locusts, we hypothesised that the longitudinal size cline was partly due to density‐dependent phase polyphenism. 3. We tested the effect of density, population, and density×population interaction on life‐history traits (pronotum length, mass, cumulative development time, growth rate) of, and proportion surviving to, each of the five instars and the adult stage in a 2 × 3 factorial laboratory experiment with two lubber populations, each reared from hatchling to adult at three different densities. 4. The effect of density on life history and survival was independent of the effects of population on life history and survival. Higher densities led to larger adult sizes (pronotum, mass) and lower survivorship. The western population had smaller adult masses, fewer cumulative days to the adult stage, and higher survivorship than the eastern population. 5. Our data suggest that lubber grasshoppers exhibit density‐dependent phase polyphenism initiated by the physical presence of conspecifics. However, the plastic response of adult size to density observed in the laboratory is not consistent with the relationship between phenotypes and adult density in the field. Genetic differences between populations observed in the laboratory could contribute to size and life‐history differences among lubber populations in the field.     

Juveniles stick to adults: recruitment of the tube-dwelling polychaete Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766)

Juveniles of the tube-dwelling polychaete L. conchilega were found attached to adult tubes at an exposed beach in South Wales (U.K.). They attached to the upper part of tubes protruding above the sediment. The aim of this study was to determine the timing of juvenile settlement on to adult tubes, their abundance and size distribution, and the time of detachment and densities in the sediment after re-settlement. Furthermore, to establish whether the sediment composition of juvenile tubes differed from those of adults and the surrounding sediment. In 1998, 1999 and 2000, tubes of adult L. conchilegawere sampled and numbers of attached juveniles were quantified and their sizes measured. Densities of solitary L. conchilega in the sediment were estimated, as well as the size distribution of solitary tubes. On average, 5–13 juveniles were attached to single adult tubes in spring, but numbers varied greatly with up to 72 juveniles on a single tube in April 1998. Availability of a hard substratum and chemical cues are discussed as potential factors triggering the attachment of juveniles to adult tubes. Juveniles started to detach and re-settle in the sediment 1 month after attachment. Once settled in the sediment, juvenile numbers decreased steeply, but the size distribution of solitary L. conchilega suggested that some juveniles survived in the population. However, the extent to which numbers of juvenile recruits contribute to the density of adults remained unclear. Juveniles used a smaller mean particle size for tube building than adults, but both actively selected particles.     

Recruitment in the swash zone – temporal variations in juvenile recruitment of an exposed sand beach surf clam

This study examined factors affecting juvenile recruitment in the tuatua Paphies donacinaon an exposed surf beach in Pegasus Bay, South Island New Zealand between October 1994 and April 1997. Tuatua recruitment followed female gonad maturation with a delay of approximately 2 months. Juveniles (1–10 mm shell length) occurred throughout the study except during June and July 1995 (winter). Average densities (m^–2 ) were 28 in winter, 230 in spring, 174 in summer and 108 in autumn. There was high juvenile mortality and/or emigration and the maximum average density of (741m^–2 ) was recorded in November 1996. Recruit densities were similar between years except during winter. Adult tuatua populations were dominated by modal shell lengths greater than 70 mm.There was no significant relationship between adult and juvenile recruit length. Recruit length decreased with recruit density suggesting density dependent competition for space or food resources. Juvenile density increased following increases in food availability (chlorophyll a concentration) but average length of juveniles did not correlate directly with any of the environmental variables. Recruit density decreased as the modal adult length increased and recruit length reduced when adult populations had a high condition index. Because larvae, juveniles and adult are mobile the beach population is characteristic of an open system with adults and juveniles from the resident population affecting post-settlement density- dependent processes.     

Size‐dependent microhabitat use and intraspecific competition in Cottus gobio

An electrofishing survey of daytime shelter microhabitat use of bullhead Cottus gobio in a southern English chalk stream revealed positive selection for moderate water velocity, vegetation cover and coarse substrata. Water depth, other forms of cover, shade and substratum embeddedness had no significant influence on the distribution of fish. Microhabitat use was size‐dependent, with patches occupied by adult fish containing coarser substrata and less blanket weed ( Cladophora algae) than those occupied by smaller juvenile conspecifics. Differences in substratum use between size‐classes were less pronounced in parts of the stream shaded by the tree canopy. In laboratory tanks stocked at low fish density, both juveniles and adults favoured use of cobbles over pebbles. The response of fish to increased conspecific density was size‐dependent; juveniles reduced use of the coarse substratum whereas adults maintained their predominance in this habitat. An apparently greater shift by juveniles when in the presence of adults was significant at α = 0·10 only, as was an apparent reduction in interactions between size‐classes under low light intensity. The displacement of small juvenile fish from the preferred cobble substratum is consistent with the hypothesis that intraspecific competition contributes to the size‐related microhabitat shift observed in the field. Although there was a tendency for the strength of competition to be reduced at low light levels, the mechanism by which tree canopy cover affects microhabitat use remains uncertain.     

Competition between juveniles and adults in age-structured populations

The effect of competition between juveniles and adults is examined in a generalized, two-age-class, discrete-time model. Adult fecundity and juvenile survival are functions of both age-class densities. Possible configurations of the zero growth isoclines are examined, giving special attention to the isocline shapes, the number of equilibria, and the manner in which the population approaches these equilibria. It is found that small increases in the density of one age class may have either a positive or a negative effect on recruitment into the other class, depending upon the degree of density dependence in fecundity and survival. Closely allied to this, an increase in the resources for a given age class may result in either an increase or a decrease in its equilibrium density. Strong juvenile-adult competition generally has destabilizing effects on the population's equilibrium, with the system being more sensitive to juveniles competing with adults than to the reverse.     

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.     

Fitness costs of intrinsic competition in two egg parasitoids of a true bug

Intrinsic competition in insect parasitoids occurs when supernumerary larvae develop in the same host as consequence of multiple ovipositions by females of the same species (intra-specific competition) or by females of different species (inter-specific competition). Studies on intrinsic competition have mainly focused on understanding the factors that play a role in the outcome of competition, while fitness-related effects for the parasitoid surviving the competition have been poorly investigated, especially in egg parasitoids. Interestingly, even the winning parasitoid can experience fitness costs due to larval development in a host in which multiple factors have been injected by the ovipositing females or released by their larvae. In this paper we studied fitness-related traits associated with intra- and inter-specific competition between Trissolcus basalis (Wollaston) and Ooencyrtus telenomicida (Vassiliev), the main egg parasitoids associated with the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) in Italy. We investigated the impact of intrinsic competition for the surviving parasitoid in terms of body size, developmental time, number and size of oocytes. Our results indicated that T. basalis adults did not experience fitness-related costs when surviving intra-specific competition; however, adults were smaller, took longer to develop and females produced fewer oocytes after surviving inter-specific competition. A different outcome was found for O. telenomicida where the emerging females were smaller, produced fewer and smaller oocytes when suffering intra-specific competition whereas no fitness costs were found when adults survived inter-specific competition. These results support the hypothesis that the impact of intrinsic competition in egg parasitoids depends on the severity of the competitive interaction, as fitness costs were more pronounced when the surviving parasitoid interacted with the most detrimental competitor.     

Simplifying a physiologically structured population model to a stage-structured biomass model

We formulate and analyze an archetypal consumer-resource model in terms of ordinary differential equations that consistently translates individual life history processes, in particular food-dependent growth in body size and stage-specific differences between juveniles and adults in resource use and mortality, to the population level. This stage-structured model is derived as an approximation to a physiologically structured population model, which accounts for a complete size-distribution of the consumer population and which is based on assumptions about the energy budget and size-dependent life history of individual consumers. The approximation ensures that under equilibrium conditions predictions of both models are completely identical. In addition we find that under non-equilibrium conditions the stage-structured model gives rise to dynamics that closely approximate the dynamics exhibited by the size-structured model, as long as adult consumers are superior foragers than juveniles with a higher mass-specific ingestion rate. When the mass-specific intake rate of juvenile consumers is higher, the size-structured model exhibits single-generation cycles, in which a single cohort of consumers dominates population dynamics throughout its life time and the population composition varies over time between a dominance by juveniles and adults, respectively. The stage-structured model does not capture these dynamics because it incorporates a distributed time delay between the birth and maturation of an individual organism in contrast to the size-structured model, in which maturation is a discrete event in individual life history. We investigate model dynamics with both semi-chemostat and logistic resource growth.     

从空间分布特征认识珍稀植物领春木的种群动态

领春木(Euptelea pleiosperrnum)系第三纪孑遗植物和东亚特有种,目前已被列为国家Ⅲ级重点保护植物.基于空间定位数据以最近邻体距离统计研究了神农架地区领春木的空间分布特征,比较幼苗(DBH≤2.5cm)、幼树(2.5～7.5cm)和成树(＞7.5cm)各径级(代表各生活史阶段)形成的时间序列上的空间格局差异,进而探讨空间格局与立苗、补员、种内竞争等种群动态过程的相互关系.结果显示,在邻域尺度上,领春木的空间格局呈聚集态;幼苗(或幼树)的大小与其距离最近幼树(或成树)的远近没有相关性,幼树(或成树)周围一定距离以内出现同等大小个体的概率约等于幼苗(或幼树)出现的概率,且幼树与最近幼苗(或成树与最近幼树)的平均距离与幼树之间(或成树之间)的平均最近邻体距离没有显著差异;任意个体的大小、任意个体与相应最近邻体的大小之和与相应的最近邻体距离均为显著的正相关关系,但幼树间的最近邻体距离并不大于幼苗随机死亡产生的最近邻体距离,成树间最近邻体距离也不大于幼苗+幼树随机死亡产生的最近邻体距离.这些结果表明,领春木的聚集分布可能与种子散布、生境异质性对立苗格局的作用有关;已定植的大个体可能不限制其邻域内小个体的布局与生长,但是长期的补员过程与邻体间的相互作用不无关系;邻体间存在一定程度的竞争作用,但是竞争强度并未充分激化至发生距离依赖的死亡.     

Behavioral signature of intraspecific competition and density dependence in colony‐breeding marine predators

In populations of colony‐breeding marine animals, foraging around colonies can lead to intraspecific competition. This competition affects individual foraging behavior and can cause density‐dependent population growth. Where behavioral data are available, it may be possible to infer the mechanism of intraspecific competition. If these mechanics are understood, they can be used to predict the population‐level functional response resulting from the competition. Using satellite relocation and dive data, we studied the use of space and foraging behavior of juvenile and adult gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) from a large (over 200,000) and growing population breeding at Sable Island, Nova Scotia (44.0 ^oN 60.0 ^oW). These data were first analyzed using a behaviorally switching state‐space model to infer foraging areas followed by randomization analysis of foraging region overlap of competing age classes. Patterns of habitat use and behavioral time budgets indicate that young‐of‐year juveniles (YOY) were likely displaced from foraging areas near (<10 km) the breeding colony by adult females. This displacement was most pronounced in the summer. Additionally, our data suggest that YOY are less capable divers than adults and this limits the habitat available to them. However, other segregating mechanisms cannot be ruled out, and we discuss several alternate hypotheses. Mark–resight data indicate juveniles born between 1998 and 2002 have much reduced survivorship compared with cohorts born in the late 1980s, while adult survivorship has remained steady. Combined with behavioral observations, our data suggest YOY are losing an intraspecific competition between adults and juveniles, resulting in the currently observed decelerating logistic population growth. Competition theory predicts that intraspecific competition resulting in a clear losing competitor should cause compensatory population regulation. This functional response produces a smooth logistic growth curve as carrying capacity is approached, and is consistent with census data collected from this population over the past 50 years. The competitive mechanism causing compensatory regulation likely stems from the capital‐breeding life‐history strategy employed by gray seals. This strategy decouples reproductive success from resources available around breeding colonies and prevents females from competing with each other while young are dependent.     

Size-selective mortality of Sea of Okhotsk pink salmon in the ocean in the winter and spring

The mortality of Sea of Okhotsk pink salmon in the winter and spring varies significantly from year to year, which complicates forecasts of its arrival in the following year based on data on the downstream migration of fry and surveys in the fall. The size-selective mortality of pink salmon was studied and the possibility of using the size and weight parameters of juveniles for predicting their return was evaluated through measurements of scale increments in juvenile pink salmon that were caught in the southern Sea of Okhotsk in the fall of 2007 and 2008 and in fish of these year classes that came back to spawn. In the 2007 year class, which had a low overwinter survival level in the ocean, the average scale increments for the first year of life were considerably smaller than those in adult fish that returned to the spawning grounds. In the pink salmon of 2008, which had a very high level of overwinter survival, the values of scale increments in juveniles and adults were similar. This confirms the hypothesis of a critical size and a critical period, according to which slowly growing juveniles that do not accumulate enough energy reserves for summer are eliminated in the winter to a greater extent as compared to fast-growing fish. Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between the size and weight of juvenile pink salmon and their mortality in the ocean. After conducting further and more extensive studies this will allow using the size parameters of juvenile pink salmon as one of predictors of its return for the year following the fall surveys. These results emphasize how important it is to take the size and growth rate of juvenile salmon into account when forecasting their return.