Mid‐Holocene decline in African buffalos inferred from Bayesian coalescent‐based analyses of microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA

Genetic studies concerned with the demographic history of wildlife species can help elucidate the role of climate change and other forces such as human activity in shaping patterns of divergence and distribution. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) declined dramatically during the rinderpest pandemic in the late 1800s, but little is known about the earlier demographic history of the species. We analysed genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci and a 302‐bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to infer past demographic changes in buffalo populations from East Africa. Two Bayesian coalescent‐based methods as well as traditional bottleneck tests were applied to infer detailed dynamics in buffalo demographic history. No clear genetic signature of population declines related to the rinderpest pandemic could be detected. However, Bayesian coalescent modelling detected a strong signal of African buffalo population declines in the order of 75–98%, starting in the mid‐Holocene (approximately 3–7000 years ago). The signature of decline was remarkably consistent using two different coalescent‐based methods and two types of molecular markers. Exploratory analyses involving various prior assumptions did not seriously affect the magnitude or timing of the inferred population decline. Climate data show that tropical Africa experienced a pronounced transition to a drier climate approximately 4500 years ago, concurrent with the buffalo decline. We therefore propose that the mid‐Holocene aridification of East Africa caused a major decline in the effective population size of the buffalo, a species reliant on moist savannah habitat for its existence.     

Phylogeography of the African buffalo based on mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal loci: Pleistocene origin and population expansion of the Cape buffalo subspecies

Population genetics and phylogeography of the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) are inferred from genetic diversity at mitochondrial D-loop hypervariable region I sequences and a Y-chromosomal microsatellite. Three buffalo subspecies from different parts of Africa are included. Nucleotide diversity of the subspecies Cape buffalo at hypervariable region I is high, with little differentiation between populations. A mutation rate of 13-18% substitutions/million years is estimated for hypervariable region I. The nucleotide diversity indicates an estimated female effective population size of 17 000-32 000 individuals. Both mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal diversity are considerably higher in buffalo from central and southwestern Africa than in Cape buffalo, for which several explanations are hypothesized. There are several indications that there was a late middle to late Pleistocene population expansion in Cape buffalo. This also seems to be the period in which Cape buffalo evolved as a separate subspecies, according to the net sequence divergence with the other subspecies. These two observations are in agreement with the hypothesis of a rapid evolution of Cape buffalo based on fossil data. Additionally, there appears to have been a population expansion from eastern to southern Africa, which may be related to vegetation changes. However, as alternative explanations are also possible, further analyses with autosomal loci are needed.     

Bayesian inference of population expansions in domestic bovines

The past population dynamics of four domestic and one wild species of bovine were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots, a coalescent Markov chain Monte Carlo method that does not require an assumed parametric model of demographic history. Four domestic species share a recent rapid population expansion not visible in the wild African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). The estimated timings of the expansions are consistent with the archaeological records of domestication.     

Megafauna extinction,tree species range reduction,and carbon storage in Amazonian forests

During the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene 59 species of South American megafauna went extinct. Their extinction potentially triggered population declines of large‐seeded tree species dispersed by the large‐bodied frugivores with which they co‐evolved, a theory first proposed by Janzen and Martin (1982). We tested this hypothesis using species range maps for 257 South American tree species, comparing 63 species thought to be primarily distributed by megafauna with 194 distributed by other animals. We found a highly significant (p < 0.001) decreased mean range size of 26% for the megafauna dispersed fruit (n = 63 species) versus fruit dispersed by other animals (n = 194), results which support the hypothesis. We then developed a mathematical model of seed dispersal to estimate the theoretical impact of megafauna extinction on tree species range and found the estimated dispersal capacity (Φ_seed) of a 2 g seed decreases by > 95% following disperser extinction. A numerical gap dynamic simulations suggests that over a 10 000 yr period following the disperser extinctions, the average convex hull range size of large‐seeded tree species decreased by ～ 31%, while the estimated decrease in population size was ～ 54%, indicating a likely greater decrease in species population size than indicated by the empirical range patterns. Finally, we found a positive correlation between seed size and wood density of animal‐dispersed tree species implying that the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene megafaunal extinctions reduced carbon content in the Amazon by ～ 1.5 ± 0.7%. In conclusion, we 1) provide some empirical evidence that megafauna distributed fruit species have a smaller mean range size than wind, water or other animal‐dispersed species, 2) demonstrate mathematically that such range reductions are expected from megafauna extinctions ca 12 000 yr ago, and 3) illustrate that these extinctions may have reduced the Amazon's carbon storage capacity.     

Bayesian coalescent inference of major human mitochondrial DNA haplogroup expansions in Africa

Past population size can be estimated from modern genetic diversity using coalescent theory. Estimates of ancestral human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa can tell us about the timing and nature of our first steps towards colonizing the globe. Here, we combine Bayesian coalescent inference with a dataset of 224 complete human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to estimate effective population size through time for each of the four major African mtDNA haplogroups (L0-L3). We find evidence of three distinct demographic histories underlying the four haplogroups. Haplogroups L0 and L1 both show slow, steady exponential growth from 156 to 213kyr ago. By contrast, haplogroups L2 and L3 show evidence of substantial growth beginning 12-20 and 61-86kyr ago, respectively. These later expansions may be associated with contemporaneous environmental and/or cultural changes. The timing of the L3 expansion--8-12kyr prior to the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages--together with high L3 diversity in eastern Africa, strongly supports the proposal that the human exodus from Africa and subsequent colonization of the globe was prefaced by a major expansion within Africa, perhaps driven by some form of cultural innovation.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

Variation of group size among African buffalo herds in a forest-savanna mosaic landscape

Documenting within species group size variation is important to completely understand social organization within species and to interpret variation among species. Here, I investigated group size of African buffalo Syncerus caffer over 2 years in a heterogeneous landscape. African buffalo use closed continuous forest and vast open savannas, and anecdotal observations suggest that habitat type influences their social structure. While the Cape buffalo Syncerus caffer caffer is well studied, few data exist for the forest-dwelling Syncerus caffer nanus . I observed forest buffalo at Lopé National Park, Gabon, and examined variation of group size. Eighteen forest buffalo herds used the study area with an estimated population of 342 individuals (∼5 buffalo km⁻²). The mean group size for the 18 herds was 12 ± 2 (range of means=3–24), considerably smaller than Cape buffalo herds. For eight radiocollared forest buffalo, the mean group size was stable, varying little with time of day, across seasons, or between savanna and marsh habitat. However, herd size varied widely across herds, from fewer than 10 individuals in the smallest herds to more than 20 buffalo in the largest. Large herd size is associated with home ranges that contain substantial areas of open habitat, and thus more food resources than forested habitats.     

Can small wildlife conservancies maintain genetically stable populations of large mammals? Evidence for increased genetic drift in geographically restricted populations of Cape buffalo in East Africa

The Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) is one of the dominant and most widespread herbivores in sub‐Saharan Africa. High levels of genetic diversity and exceptionally low levels of population differentiation have been found in the Cape buffalo compared to other African savannah ungulates. Patterns of genetic variation reveal large effective population sizes and indicate that Cape buffalos have historically been interbreeding across considerable distances. Throughout much of its range, the Cape buffalo is now largely confined to protected areas due to habitat fragmentation and increasing human population densities, possibly resulting in genetic erosion. Ten buffalo populations in Kenya and Uganda were examined using seventeen microsatellite markers to assess the regional genetic structure and the effect of protected area size on measures of genetic diversity. Two nested levels of genetic structure were identified: a higher level partitioning populations into two clusters separated by the Victoria Nile and a lower level distinguishing seven genetic clusters, each defined by one or two study populations. Although relatively small geographic distances separate most of the study populations, the level of genetic differentiation found here is comparable to that among pan‐African populations. Overall, correlations between conservancy area and indices of genetic diversity suggest buffalo populations inhabiting small parks are showing signs of genetic erosion, stressing the need for more active management of such populations. Our findings raise concerns about the future of other African savannah ungulates with lower population sizes and inferior dispersal capabilities compared with the buffalo.     

Population structure of African buffalo inferred from mtDNA sequences and microsatellite loci: high variation but low differentiation

The African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer ) is widespread throughout sub-Saharan Africa and is found in most major vegetation types, wherever permanent sources of water are available, making it physically able to disperse through a wide range of habitats. Despite this, the buffalo has been assumed to be strongly philopatric and to form large aggregations that remain within separate home ranges with little interchange between units, but the level of differentiation within the species is unknown. Genetic differences between populations were assessed using mitochondrial DNA (control region) sequence data and analysis of variation at six microsatellite loci among 11 localities in eastern and southern Africa. High levels of genetic variability were found, suggesting that reported severe population bottlenecks due to outbreak of rinderpest during the last century did not strongly reduce the genetic variability within the species. The high level of genetic variation within the species was found to be evenly distributed among populations and only at the continental level were we able to consistently detect significant differentiation, contrasting with the assumed philopatric behaviour of the buffalo. Results of mtDNA and microsatellite data were found to be congruent, disagreeing with the alleged male-biased dispersal. We propose that the observed pattern of the distribution of genetic variation between buffalo populations at the regional level can be caused by fragmentation of a previous panmictic population due to human activity, and at the continental level, reflects an effect of geographical distance between populations.     

When the pond turtle followed the reindeer: effect of the last extreme global warming event on the timing of faunal change in Northern Europe

Faunal communities have been shaped in different ways by past climatic change. The impact of the termination of the last Glacial and the onset of the present (Holocene) Interglacial on large‐scale faunal shifts, extinction dynamics and gene pools of species are of special interest in natural sciences. A general pattern of climate‐triggered range expansion and local extinction of vertebrate species is known for Europe, and shows that in the modern temperate zone the main faunal change took place mainly during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 years ago) and Early Holocene (11 700–9 100 years ago). Based on large datasets of new radiocarbon data, we present precise temporal dynamics of climate‐driven disappearance and appearance of reindeer and pond turtle in southern Sweden. These two species are significant climate indicators in Late Quaternary biostratigraphy. Our data reveal that the reindeer disappeared from southern Sweden ca. 10 300 years ago, whereas the pond turtle colonized the area ca. 9 860 years ago, with a 450‐year gap between each species. This provides evidence for a sudden environmental turnover, causing the replacement of an arctic faunal element by a thermophilic species. The postglacial range dynamics of pond turtle and reindeer are a unique model case, allowing insights into the faunal turnover of other vertebrates during the last dramatic natural global warming event at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition.     

The evolutionary dynamics of the lion Panthera leo revealed by host and viral population genomics

The lion Panthera leo is one of the world's most charismatic carnivores and is one of Africa's key predators. Here, we used a large dataset from 357 lions comprehending 1.13 megabases of sequence data and genotypes from 22 microsatellite loci to characterize its recent evolutionary history. Patterns of molecular genetic variation in multiple maternal (mtDNA), paternal (Y-chromosome), and biparental nuclear (nDNA) genetic markers were compared with patterns of sequence and subtype variation of the lion feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV(Ple)), a lentivirus analogous to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In spite of the ability of lions to disperse long distances, patterns of lion genetic diversity suggest substantial population subdivision (mtDNA Phi(ST) = 0.92; nDNA F(ST) = 0.18), and reduced gene flow, which, along with large differences in sero-prevalence of six distinct FIV(Ple) subtypes among lion populations, refute the hypothesis that African lions consist of a single panmictic population. Our results suggest that extant lion populations derive from several Pleistocene refugia in East and Southern Africa ( approximately 324,000-169,000 years ago), which expanded during the Late Pleistocene ( approximately 100,000 years ago) into Central and North Africa and into Asia. During the Pleistocene/Holocene transition ( approximately 14,000-7,000 years), another expansion occurred from southern refugia northwards towards East Africa, causing population interbreeding. In particular, lion and FIV(Ple) variation affirms that the large, well-studied lion population occupying the greater Serengeti Ecosystem is derived from three distinct populations that admixed recently.     

Climate change and human colonization triggered habitat loss and fragmentation in Madagascar

The relative effect of past climate fluctuations and anthropogenic activities on current biome distribution is subject to increasing attention, notably in biodiversity hot spots. In Madagascar, where humans arrived in the last ~4 to 5,000 years, the exact causes of the demise of large vertebrates that cohabited with humans are yet unclear. The prevailing narrative holds that Madagascar was covered with forest before human arrival and that the expansion of grasslands was the result of human‐driven deforestation. However, recent studies have shown that vegetation and fauna structure substantially fluctuated during the Holocene. Here, we study the Holocene history of habitat fragmentation in the north of Madagascar using a population genetics approach. To do so, we infer the demographic history of two northern Madagascar neighbouring, congeneric and critically endangered forest dwelling lemur species—Propithecus tattersalli and Propithecus perrieri—using population genetic analyses. Our results highlight the necessity to consider population structure and changes in connectivity in demographic history inferences. We show that both species underwent demographic fluctuations which most likely occurred after the mid‐Holocene transition. While mid‐Holocene climate change probably triggered major demographic changes in the two lemur species range and connectivity, human settlements that expanded over the last four millennia in northern Madagascar likely played a role in the loss and fragmentation of the forest cover.     

The importance of ecological memory for trophic rewilding as an ecosystem restoration approach

Increasing human pressure on strongly defaunated ecosystems is characteristic of the Anthropocene and calls for proactive restoration approaches that promote self‐sustaining, functioning ecosystems. However, the suitability of novel restoration concepts such as trophic rewilding is still under discussion given fragmentary empirical data and limited theory development. Here, we develop a theoretical framework that integrates the concept of ‘ecological memory’ into trophic rewilding. The ecological memory of an ecosystem is defined as an ecosystem's accumulated abiotic and biotic material and information legacies from past dynamics. By summarising existing knowledge about the ecological effects of megafauna extinction and rewilding across a large range of spatial and temporal scales, we identify two key drivers of ecosystem responses to trophic rewilding: (i) impact potential of (re)introduced megafauna, and (ii) ecological memory characterising the focal ecosystem. The impact potential of (re)introduced megafauna species can be estimated from species properties such as lifetime per capita engineering capacity, population density, home range size and niche overlap with resident species. The importance of ecological memory characterising the focal ecosystem depends on (i) the absolute time since megafauna loss, (ii) the speed of abiotic and biotic turnover, (iii) the strength of species interactions characterising the focal ecosystem, and (iv) the compensatory capacity of surrounding source ecosystems. These properties related to the focal and surrounding ecosystems mediate material and information legacies (its ecological memory) and modulate the net ecosystem impact of (re)introduced megafauna species. We provide practical advice about how to quantify all these properties while highlighting the strong link between ecological memory and historically contingent ecosystem trajectories. With this newly established ecological memory–rewilding framework, we hope to guide future empirical studies that investigate the ecological effects of trophic rewilding and other ecosystem‐restoration approaches. The proposed integrated conceptual framework should also assist managers and decision makers to anticipate the possible trajectories of ecosystem dynamics after restoration actions and to weigh plausible alternatives. This will help practitioners to develop adaptive management strategies for trophic rewilding that could facilitate sustainable management of functioning ecosystems in an increasingly human‐dominated world.     

Age determination of the West African buffalo Syncerus caffer brachyceros and the constancy of tooth wear

Maxillae of 34 West African buffalo Syncerus caffer brachyceros were collected from three sites in Burkina Faso, West Africa, and age determined from tooth appearance and the enamel height of M1 according to the criteria of Grimsdell (1973) for Ugandan buffalo Syncerus caffer caffer. Good agreement between the two methods was found. Ground and decalcified sections were prepared from M1 and the interradicular cementum lines counted. Although this gave inconsistent results in terms of assumed age compared with the other two methods, it is concluded that agreement was sufficiently close to suggest that the rate of attrition with age was similar in both populations.     

Island‐wide aridity did not trigger recent megafaunal extinctions in Madagascar

Researchers are divided about the relative importance of people versus climate in triggering the Late Holocene extinctions of the endemic large‐bodied fauna on the island of Madagascar. Specifically, a dramatic and synchronous decline in arboreal pollen and increase in grass pollen ca 1000 yr ago has been alternatively interpreted as evidence for aridification, increased human activity, or both. As aridification and anthropogenic deforestation can have similar effects on vegetation, resolving which of these factors (if either) led to the demise of the megafauna on Madagascar has remained a challenge. We use stable nitrogen isotope (δ¹⁵N) values from radiocarbon‐dated subfossil vertebrates to disentangle the relative importance of natural and human‐induced changes. If increasing aridity were responsible for megafaunal decline, then we would expect an island‐wide increase in δ¹⁵N values culminating in the highest values at the time of proposed maximum drought at ca 1000 yr ago. Alternatively, if climate were relatively stable and anthropogenic habitat alteration explains the palynological signal, then we would anticipate little or no change in habitat moisture, and no systematic, directional change in δ¹⁵N values over time. After accounting for the confounding influences of diet, geographic region, and coastal proximity, we find no change in δ¹⁵N values over the past 10 000 yr, and no support for a period of marked, geographically widespread aridification culminating 900–950 yr ago. Instead, increases in grasses at around that time may signal a transition in human land use to a more dedicated agro‐pastoralist lifestyle, when megafaunal populations were already in decline. Land use changes ca 1000 yr ago would have simply accelerated the inevitable loss of Madagascar's megafauna.     

Genetic traces of east-to-west human expansion waves in Eurasia

In this study, we describe the landscape of human demographic expansions in Eurasia using a large continental Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA dataset. Variation at these two uniparentally-inherited genetic systems retraces expansions that occurred in the past 60 ky, and shows a clear decrease of expansion ages from east to west Eurasia. To investigate the demographic events at the origin of this westward decrease of expansion ages, the estimated divergence ages between Eurasian populations are compared with the estimated expansion ages within each population. Both markers suggest that the demographic expansion diffused from east to west in Eurasia in a demic way, i.e., through migrations of individuals (and not just through diffusion of new technologies), highlighting the prominent role of eastern regions within Eurasia during Palaeolithic times.     

Historical demography of a wild lemur population (Propithecus verreauxi) in southwest Madagascar

The human colonization of Madagascar is associated with the extinction of numerous lemur species. However, the degree to which humans have negatively influenced the historical population dynamics of extant lemur species is not well understood. This study employs genetic and demographic analyses to estimate demographic parameters relating to the historical population dynamics of a wild lemur population, Verreaux’s sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi). The genetic analyses are used to determine whether this population experienced a historically recent (i.e., within the last 2000 years) population bottleneck, as well as to estimate the historical population growth rate and the timing of any changes in population size in the past. In addition, a retrospective demographic analysis is used to determine sources of variation and covariation in the sifaka life cycle and how variation in life-cycle transitions contributes to variation in population growth rate. The genetic analyses indicate that the sifaka population did not experience a recent population bottleneck; however, the historical population growth rate was negative, indicating that the ancestral population size was much larger than the current size. The timing of the ancestral population decline has a point estimate of 2300 years ago, but with large credible intervals: 3611–1736 years ago. This point estimate corresponds with the first evidence for human arrival to Madagascar. Climatic variation has also likely influenced past (and current) population dynamics due to stochastic annual rainfall patterns and climatic desiccation, the latter of which began in southwestern Madagascar around 4000 years ago. Variation in the survival of 2-year-old animals as well as large adult females makes the largest contribution to variation in population growth rate. In the absence of more explicit models pertaining to historical population dynamics, it is difficult to attribute the negative population growth rate of this species solely to a single factor (e.g., hunting, habitat destruction).     

A Life-Cycle Model of Human Social Groups Produces a U-Shaped Distribution in Group Size

One of the central puzzles in the study of sociocultural evolution is how and why transitions from small-scale human groups to large-scale, hierarchically more complex ones occurred. Here we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model as a first step towards understanding the ecological dynamics of small and large-scale human groups. By analogy with the interactions between single-celled and multicellular organisms, we build a theory of group lifecycles as an emergent property of single cell demographic and expansion behaviours. We find that once the transition from small-scale to large-scale groups occurs, a few large-scale groups continue expanding while small-scale groups gradually become scarcer, and large-scale groups become larger in size and fewer in number over time. Demographic and expansion behaviours of groups are largely influenced by the distribution and availability of resources. Our results conform to a pattern of human political change in which religions and nation states come to be represented by a few large units and many smaller ones. Future enhancements of the model should include decision-making rules and probabilities of fragmentation for large-scale societies. We suggest that the synthesis of population ecology and social evolution will generate increasingly plausible models of human group dynamics.     

Pleistocene megafaunal interaction networks became more vulnerable after human arrival

The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions.     

Microsatellite analysis of genetic diversity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) populations throughout Africa

Genetic diversity in nine African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) populations throughout Africa was analysed with 14 microsatellites to study the effects of rinderpest epidemics and habitat fragmentation during the 20th century. A gradient of declining expected heterozygosity was observed among populations in Save Valley Conservancy (Zimbabwe), and northern and southern Kruger National Park (South Africa). This was explained by a high mortality in northern Kruger National Park during the rinderpest pandemic at the end of the 19th century followed by recolonization from neighbouring populations, resulting in intermediate heterozygosity levels in northern Kruger National Park. In other populations expected heterozygosity was very high, indicating that rinderpest and recent habitat fragmentation had a limited effect on genetic diversity. From expected heterozygosity, estimates of long-term effective population size were derived. Migration rates among populations in eastern and southern Africa were very high, as shown by a weak isolation by distance and significant correlation in allele frequencies between populations. However, there were indications that dry habitats could limit migration. Genetic distances within buffalo in central Africa were relatively large, supporting their status as distinct subspecies. Finally, it was observed that the higher polymorphic microsatellites were less sensitive at detecting isolation by distance and differences in Ne, which may be a result of the high mutation pressure at these loci.