Heliogeophysical correlates of early biodemographic variables in the south of western Siberia

In order to verify associations between solar and geomagnetic activities and perinatal variables the monthly distributions of population characters in Novosibirsk region over the period 1980-2001 were compared by stepwise correlation analysis with monthly averaged physical parameters at lags from 0 to 10 months. Three indices used were as follows: the number of sunspots, solar flux at 10.7 cm wavelength and Ak index measured at local ionospheric station near Novosibirsk city. Official data on the number of single and multiple live births, stillbirths and infant deaths at the age under one year by the type of population and sex were provided by State Statistical Committee. All three physical parameters positively correlated with the number of single births and infant mortality rate and negatively with twin births in both populations, urban and rural, irrespective of lags. The direct association between Ak index and relative number of stillbirths in urban setting was mostly pronounced at a lag of 5 months. The number of live births increased along with Ak index due to the enhanced proportion of female births whereas the number of stillbirths after the increase in solar and geomagnetic activities elevated because of male deaths.     

Air pollution and infant mortality: Evidence from China

Using a newly assembled prefecture-city level dataset from 2004 to 2015, this paper examines the impact of air pollution on child mortality in China. To identify the causal effect, we exploit ventilation coefficient as the instrument for urban air pollution. We find that a 10 μg/m³ increase in annual PM_2.5 concentration causes 163 infant deaths per 100,000 live births per year in a city.     

Whatever the weather: ambient temperature does not influence the proportion of males born in New Zealand

Background

The proportion of male births has been shown to be over 50% in temperate climates around the world. Given that fluctuations in ambient temperature have previously been shown to affect sex allocation in humans, we examined the hypothesis that ambient temperature predicts fluctuations in the proportion of male births in New Zealand.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We tested three main hypotheses using time series analyses. Firstly, we used historical annual data in New Zealand spanning 1876–2009 to test for a positive effect of ambient temperature on the proportion of male births. The proportion of males born ranged by 3.17%, from 0.504 to 0.520, but no significant relationship was observed between male birth rates and mean annual temperature in the concurrent or previous years. Secondly, we examined whether changes in annual ambient temperature were negatively related to the proportion of male stillbirths from 1929–2009 and whether the proportion of male stillbirths negatively affected the proportion of male live births. We found no evidence that fewer male stillbirths occurred during warmer concurrent or previous years, though a declining trend in the proportion of male stillbirths was observed throughout the data. Thirdly, we tested whether seasonal ambient temperatures, or deviations from those seasonal patterns, were positively related to the proportion of male births using monthly data from 1980–2009. Patterns of male and female births are seasonal, but very similar throughout the year, resulting in a non-seasonal proportion of male births. However, no cross correlations between proportion of male births and lags of temperature were significant.

Conclusions

Results showed, across all hypotheses under examination, that ambient temperatures were not related to the proportion of male births or the proportion of male stillbirths in New Zealand. While there is evidence that temperature may influence human sex allocation elsewhere, such effects of temperature are not universal.     

Hospital cardiovascular deaths and total distribution of deaths in 180 consecutive months with different cosmic physical activity: a correlative study (1974–1988)

The dynamics of total hospital deaths from different kinds of cardiovascular diseases in one 1000-bed hospital were compared with 10 monthly cosmic/solar and geomagnetic physical activity parameters. Data used were of 180 consecutive months; 15601 deaths including 5667 from cardiovascular diseases were included in this study. It was concluded that the number of monthly hospital deaths shows a highly significant correlation with monthly solar physical activity.     

Maternal and Antenatal Risk Factors for Stillbirths and Neonatal Mortality in Rural Bangladesh: A Case-Control Study

Objective

To identify maternal and antenatal factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh.

Study Design

A prospective cohort study is being conducted to evaluate a maternal and child nutrition program in rural Bangladesh. Cases were all stillbirths and neonatal deaths that occurred in the cohort between March 7, 2011 and December 30, 2011. Verbal autopsies were used to determine cause of death. For each case, four controls were randomly selected from cohort members alive at age 3-months. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with these deaths.

Results

Overall, 112 adverse pregnancy outcomes (44 stillbirths, 19/1,000 births; 68 neonatal deaths, 29/1,000 live births) were reported. Of the stillbirths 25 (56.8%) were fresh. The main causes of neonatal death were birth asphyxia (35%), sepsis (28%) and preterm birth (19%). History of bleeding during pregnancy was the strongest risk factor for stillbirths (adjusted odds ratio 22.4 [95% confidence interval 2.5, 197.5]) and neonatal deaths (adjusted odds ratio 19.6 [95% confidence interval 2.1, 178.8]). Adequate maternal nutrition was associated with decreased risk of neonatal death (adjusted odds ratio 0.4 [95% confidence interval 0.2, 0.8]).

Conclusions

Identifying high-risk pregnancies during gestation and ensuring adequate antenatal and obstetric care needs to be a priority for any community-based maternal and child health program in similar settings.     

Risk factors for perinatal mortality in Canada

A population-based computer record-linkage study of infant births and deaths in 1978 and 1979 in eight Canadian provinces (Quebec and Newfoundland were excluded) was undertaken to permit analysis of perinatal mortality in relation to maternal and infant characteristics. Perinatal mortality rates were significantly higher in nonurban than in urban areas (p < 0.05). A logistic regression model was used to assess the effects on perinatal mortality of variables reported on birth and stillbirth records. This model included length of gestation, infant''s birth weight and sex, number of previous births and number of previous stillbirths as well as an interaction term for length of gestation and birth weight. For early-neonatal mortality, odds ratios over 8 were observed for birth weight less than 2500 g or gestation less than 35 weeks. About 75% of early-neonatal mortality was attributable to low birth weight or fetal immaturity. Greater emphasis should be placed on the prevention of low birth weight.     

Factors in the incidence of childlessness in Canada: An analysis of census data

The impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on human fertility has been subject to significant scholarly debate. The current study characterizes the inter-temporal association between excess deaths during the pandemic and the subsequent birth deficit by identifying the length of time between these two phenomena using cross-correlations of monthly death and birth data from Taiwan from 1906 to 1943. The analysis demonstrates a strong and negative correlation between deaths (d) at time t and births (b) at time t + 9 (r_db(9) = –0.68, p < .0001). In other words, a significant drop in births was observed nine months after pandemic mortality peaked. The findings suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic impacted subsequent births primarily through the mechanism of reduced conceptions and embryonic loss during the first month of pregnancy rather than through late-first-trimester embryonic loss.     

Relationship between suicide and myocardial infarction with regard to changing physical environmental conditions

In recent years, the possible association of changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease and myocardial infarction (MI) and deaths related to violence and the suicide rate has been repeatedly discussed. This study examined the relationship between cosmic physical changes (solar, geomagnetic and other space activity parameters) and changes in the total number of in-hospital and MI-related deaths and deaths from suicide to determine if a relationship exists between the distribution of total and MI-related deaths with suicide over time; some differences in the serotonergic mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of MI and suicide were also taken into account. All suicides (n=2359) registered in the State of Israel from 1981 to 1989 (108 months) were analysed and compared with the total number of deaths (n=15601) and deaths from MI (n=1573) in a large university hospital over 180 months (1974–1989). The following were the main features of the Results. (1) Monthly suicide rate was correlated with space proton flux (r=0.42,P=0.0001) and with geomagnetic activity (r=–0.22,P=0.03). (2) Total hospital and MI-related deaths were correlated with solar activity parameters (r=0.35,P<0.001) and radiowave propagation (r=0.52-0.44,P<0.001), an with proton flux (r=–0.3 to –0.26,P<0.01). (3) Monthly suicide distribution over 108 months was correlated with MI (r=–0.33,P=0.0005) and total hospital mortality (r=–0.22,P=0.024). (4) Gender differences were prominent. We conclude that the monthly distributions of suicides and deaths from MI are adversely related to many environmental physical parameters and negatively correlated with each other.     

Congenital malformations at birth in Central India: A rural medical college hospital based data

OBJECTIVE:

To study the incidence of congenital anomalies and the associated risk factors in Department of Pediatrics at Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Sevagram, Wardha, a rural medical college hospital in central Maharashtra.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

All the intramural deliveries between 1 January 2005 and 31 July 2007 comprised 9386 births and their 9324 mothers (62 mothers gave birth to twin babies). The newborns were examined and assessed systematically for the presence of congenital anomalies, system wise distribution of anomalies and risk factors attributable.

RESULTS:

Out of the total 9386 deliveries, 9194 were live births and 192 were stillbirths. The total number of babies with congenital malformations was 179 (1.91%). Out of the 9262 singleton births, 177 (1.05%) were malformed, whereas 2 of the 62 pairs of twins had birth defects. Nine of the 179 malformed babies (5.02%) were still born. Prematurity, increased maternal age, increasing birth order and low birth weight were found to have a higher risk of congenital anomalies. Cardiovascular malformations were most common in live births, followed by musculoskeletal and genitourinary anomalies.

CONCLUSION:

Congenital anomalies are a major cause of stillbirths and infant mortality. Evaluation of cardiovascular system to rule out congenital heart disease in high-risk mothers’ babies is the important factor to be considered.     

Consequences of the number and spacing of pregnancies on outcome,and of pregnancy outcome on spacing

Abstract

This study is based on 3,098 once‐married women in Abderdeen, Scotland, who had a total of 10,825 pregnancies, which resulted in wastages of 285 infant deaths, 173 stillbirths, 712 involuntary abortions, and 200 voluntary terminations. Wastage varies by pregnancy number, particularly after the third pregnancy. There is, however, a selective factor operating here in that women who have a wastage are more likely to continue on to the next higher pregnancy number, and those who have a wastage at one pregnancy number are more likely to have a wastage at the next pregnancy outcome also. Wastage tends to be cumulative. Women who enter the reproductive cycle at the younger ages have a larger number of pregnancies and a higher wastage rate than women who postpone their first pregnancy until the older ages. Women who experience a wastage at any given pregnancy number are not only more likely to have another pregnancy, but they do so over a shorter time interval than those whose last pregnancy resulted in a live birth. Except for terminations, wastage is highest among women who closely space their pregnancy     

Demography of the human sex ratio in some Latin American countries, 1967-1986.

A sample based on hospital births recorded for the Latin American Collaborative Study on Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC) program was used in the present study to determine sex ratios for live births and for stillbirths. Sixty-four cities and 147 hospitals in 11 countries (Uruguay, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay, Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, and Costa Rica) were included in the present analyses. The number of live births was 1,886,653 in the period 1967-1986, and the number of stillbirths was 24,818 in the period 1978-1986. The sex ratio for the total sample was 0.5112 for live births and 0.5477 for stillbirths. The sex ratio as a whole is decreasing with time in a parabolic fashion. Each country in our study behaved differently. Except for Peru and Uruguay, the countries experienced a significant decrease in the sex ratio after 1978 for live births; only Brazil did not show a temporal trend for the sex ratio for stillbirths.     

Can solar/geomagnetic activity restrict the occurrence of some shellfish poisoning outbreaks? The example of PSP caused by Gymnodinium catenatum at the Atlantic Portuguese coast

Cyclic outbreaks of accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins in mussels attributed to Gymnodinium catenatum blooms displayed several of the highest inter-annual maxima coincidental with the minima of the 11-year solar sunspot number (SSN) cycle. The monthly distribution of PSP was associated with low levels of the solar radio flux, a more quantitative approach than SSN for fluctuations in solar activity. Comparison between monthly distribution of PSP and other commons biotoxins (okadaic acid, dinophysistoxin-2, and amnesic shellfish poisoning toxins) demonstrated that only PSP was significantly associated with low levels of radio flux (p < 0.01). PSP occurrence suggests a prior decline in solar activity to be required as a trigger, similarly to a photoperiodic signal. The seasonal frequency increased towards autumn during the study period, which might be related to the progressive atmospheric cutoff of deleterious radiation associated with the seasonal change in solar declination, and might play an additional role in seasonal signal-triggering. PSP distribution was also associated with low levels of the geomagnetic index Aa. Comparison between monthly distributions of PSP and other common biotoxins also demonstrated that only PSP was significantly associated with low levels of the Aa index (p < 0.01). In some years of SSN minima, no significant PSP outbreaks in mussels were detected. This was attributed to a steady rise in geomagnetic activity that could disrupt the triggering signal. Global distribution patterns show that hotspots for G. catenatum blooms are regions with deficient crustal magnetic anomalies. In addition to the variable magnetic field mostly of solar origin, static fields related to magnetized rocks in the crust and upper mantle might play a role in restricting worldwide geographic distribution.     

Brief and precarious lives: infant mortality in contrasting sites from medieval and post-medieval England (AD 850-1859)

This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles.At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births at the site (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).     

Effects of 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC) administration to pregnant squirrel monkeys (Saimiri boliviensis boliviensis)

Poor reproductive performance of the squirrel monkey (Saimiri boliviensis boliviensis) in captivity and a relative progesterone (P) deficiency in pregnancy have been reported. Since premature births may contribute to pregnancy wastage, we attempted to measure the effectiveness of 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC) treatment of pregnant squirrel monkeys to prevent early deliveries. Based on clearance studies of nonpregnant animals, 25 mg of 17-OHPC was administered at 6-day intervals to a test group of 31 pregnant monkeys while the control group of 29 received saline. Venous blood was obtained at 6- to 12-day intervals for measurement of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP), P, 17-B estradiol (E), and androstenedione (A), and dihydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) levels by radioimmunoassays. The treated group had a significant increase in serum 17-OHP (P < 0.001), P (P < 0.01), and DHEA (P < 0.05) levels compared to controls. The numbers of live births, stillbirths, or neonatal deaths did not differ significantly between groups. Although 17-OHPC administration appeared to increase P and 17-OHP levels, this did not alter the duration of pregnancy nor delay the onset of labor. A significant fall in 17-OHP, P, and E levels was observed 6–12 days before delivery.     

Patterns of infant mortality caused by major congenital anomalies

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of recent advances in perinatal care on infant mortality due to congenital anomaly. METHODS: Analysis of trends in congenital anomaly-attributed infant mortality, using the 1981-1995 Statistics Canada's birth and death records, with a total of 2,878,826 live births, 21,883 infant deaths, and 6, 908 infant deaths due to congenital anomalies. RESULTS: Infant mortality due to major congenital anomaly decreased from 3.11 per 1, 000 live births in 1981 to 1.89 per 1,000 live births in 1995. Cause-specific infant mortality rates for anencephaly, spina bifida, other central nervous system anomalies, cardiovascular system anomalies, respiratory system anomalies, digestive system anomalies, certain musculoskeleton anomalies, urinary system anomalies, chromosomal anomalies, and multiple congenital anomalies were 0.20, 0.23, 0.27, 1.04, 0.24, 0.08, 0.22, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 per 1,000 live births, respectively, in 1981-1983, whereas corresponding rates were 0.07, 0.07, 0.18, 0.73, 0.25, 0.03, 0.12, 0.12, 0.26, and 0.06 per 1,000 live births, respectively, in 1993-1995. CONCLUSIONS: Recent Canadian data show that infant deaths caused by major congenital anomalies have decreased significantly, but reductions varied substantially according to specific forms of anomalies.     

Feed-forward activation in a theoretical first-order biochemical pathway which contains an anticipatory model

This paper explores the consequences of the theoretical forward activation enzymatic pathway A ₀ A ₁ A ₂ A ₃ where E ₁ convents A ₀ to A ₁, E ₂ converts A ₁ to A ₂ and E ₃ converts A ₂ to A ₃. A ₀, which is environmentally determined, also serves to activate (or modulate) the activity of E ₃ in such a way as to keep the concentration of A ₂ ([A ₂]) constant at a particular set-point value. For mathematical simplicity, first order rate kinetics are used where k ₁, k ₂ and k ₃ are the rate constants for E ₁, E ₂, and E ₃ respectively. It is shown that if k ₃ is modulated appropriately so as keep [A ₂] at the setpoint value with a changing upstream [A ₀], then the modulation of k ₃ must be anticipatory of the dynamics of the biochemical pathway. In other words, the rate of change of k ₃, will be a function of [A ₀], k ₁, k ₂, k ₃, and the set-point value of [A ₂]. If the modulation of k ₃ does not perfectly model (anticipate) the reaction pathway of which it is a part, then the actual [A ₂] will deviate from the set-point value. This type of anticipatory feed-forward activation may represent an important aspect of biological organization.     

Modeling the occurrence of shellfish poisoning outbreaks caused by Gymnodinium catenatum (Dinophyceae) through electromagnetic signal triggering

Accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning toxins (PSTs) in bivalves attributed to Gymnodinium catenatum blooms at the NW Portuguese coast was previously associated with periods of low solar activity (measured by the radio flux R), or low geomagnetic A _a index. It was also observed that reduction of R preceded the occurrence of toxin accumulation, while the A _a index increase could be related to its absence during periods of low activity. For modeling toxin accumulation, the monthly decrease in R was studied along the decade 2003–2012. A match that helped explaining the highly toxic years of 2007 and 2008 was obtained by plotting the formula: ΔR = (R _{n ? 1} ? R _n )/(R _n ? 65)², where 65 represented the lowest radio activity known to date. The complex denominator was required to take into account the sunspot cycle. A 1–2-month lag was observed between maximal relative decline and maximal PST accumulation. PSTs in bivalves from the Portuguese south coast were related with natural electromagnetic cycles for the first time, and were not statistically associated with low R. A statistically significant association with low A _a index also was not achieved, due to the low number of occurrences, although the 25–75 percentile was restricted to low A _a indexes in a similar way to that found for the NW coast. PST accumulation outside solar minima could be triggered by a steep decline in the A _a index (ΔA), but no lag was observed in this case. While the ΔR amplitude helped explaining the highly toxic years of 2007 and 2008 at the NW coast, the amplitude of ΔA was not related to the severity of the accumulation. Another kind of local electromagnetic signaling was investigated resorting to the occurrence of seismologic phenomena, because these events can trigger electric activities. No statistical association was found between seism number or magnitude and PSTs at the south coast, located near the boundary between the African and Eurasian plates, and marked by moderate seismicity.     

Antenatal Syphilis Screening Using Point-Of-Care Testing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia and Latin America: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes to the infant. In low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America, 20%-30% of women are not tested for syphilis during pregnancy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the coverage for antenatal syphilis screening in 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries, using a point-of-care immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test.MethodsThe decision analytical cost-effectiveness models reported incremental costs per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from the perspectives of the national health care payer. Clinical outcomes were stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and congenital syphilis. DALYs were computed using WHO disability weights. Costs included the ICS test, three injections of benzathine penicillin, and nurse wages. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis and the proportion of women in the antenatal care setting that are screened for syphilis infection as reported in the 2014 WHO baseline report on global sexually transmitted infection surveillance. Country-specific data on the annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, and per capita gross national income were also included in the model.ResultsThe incremental cost/DALY averted of syphilis screening is US$53 (range: US$10-US$332; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.71%) in Asia and US$60 (range: US$5-US$225; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.77%) in Latin America. Universal screening may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by 20,344 and 4,270, neonatal deaths by 8,201 and 1,721, cases of congenital syphilis by 10,952 and 2,298, and avert 925,039 and 197,454 DALYs in the aggregate Asian and Latin American panel, respectively.ConclusionAntenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in all the 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries assessed. Our findings support the decision to expand syphilis screening in countries with currently low screening rates or continue national syphilis screening programs in countries with high rates.