Prevalence and spatial distribution of Ixodid tick populations in the forest fringes of Western Ghats reported with human cases of Kyasanur forest disease and monkey deaths in South India

Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) is a major tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever caused by KFD virus (KFDV) (Flaviviridae). The disease was reported to be confined to five districts of Karnataka state India until 2011. During 2012–2016, emergence of KFD has been reported in newer areas of Karnataka and adjoining states. Therefore, survey of tick vectors was carried out in these new areas of Karnataka and adjoining states reported with monkey deaths and human cases of KFD. In all selected sites, ticks from the forest floor were collected by lint clothes using flagging method. Tick samples were tested for KFDV nucleic acid by real-time RT-PCR. A total of 4772 ticks, comprising eight species of genus Haemaphysalis and one species each of genus Amblyomma, Ixodes and Rhipicephalus was collected. Haemaphysalis spinigera, the principal vector of KFDV was the predominant tick species (59.5%) collected followed by H. turturis (8.6%). The abundance of H. spinigera ranged from 9.2 to 33.9 per man-hour in the six districts surveyed. Of 214 (4418 tick samples) pools screened by real-time RT-PCR, two pools of H. spinigera were positive for KFDV. High abundance of Haemaphysalis vectors in the six districts indicated that the districts are receptive for KFD outbreaks. KFDV was detected in the tick vectors in the new foci of the KFD. Data on tick distribution will be useful in creating KFD risk map for strengthening the ongoing preventive measures such as vaccination and supply of insect repellents to the high risk groups and intensive health education.     

‘None of my ancestors ever discussed this disease before!’ How disease information shapes adaptive capacity of marginalised rural populations in India

Smallholder farmer and tribal communities are often characterised as marginalised and highly vulnerable to emerging zoonotic diseases due to their relatively poor access to healthcare, worse-off health outcomes, proximity to sources of disease risks, and their social and livelihood organisation. Yet, access to relevant and timely disease information that could strengthen their adaptive capacity remain challenging and poorly characterised in the empirical literature. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the role of disease information in shaping the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmer and tribal groups to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), a tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever. We carried out household surveys (n = 229) and in-depth interviews (n = 25) in two affected districts–Shimoga and Wayanad–in the Western Ghats region.Our findings suggest that, despite the generally limited awareness about KFD, access to disease information improved households’ propensity to implement adaptation strategies relative to households that had no access to it. Of the variety of adaptation strategies implemented, vaccination, avoiding forest visits, wearing of protective clothing and footwear, application of dimethyl phthalate (DMP) oil and income diversification were identified by respondents as important adaptive measures during the outbreak seasons. Even so, we identified significant differences between individuals in exposure to disease information and its contribution to substantive adaptive action. Households reported several barriers to implement adaptation strategies including, lack of disease information, low efficacy of existing vaccine, distrust, religio-cultural sentiments, and livelihood concerns. We also found that informal information sharing presented a promising avenue from a health extension perspective albeit with trade-offs with potential distortion of the messages through misinformation and/or reporting bias. Altogether, our findings stress the importance of contextualising disease information and implementing interventions in a participatory way that sufficiently addresses the social determinants of health in order to bolster households’ adaptive capacity to KFD and other neglected endemic zoonoses.     

Limited Effects of Type I Interferons on Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus in Cell Culture

BackgroundThe tick-borne flavivirus, Kyasanur Forest disease virus (KFDV) causes seasonal infections and periodic outbreaks in south-west India. The current vaccine offers poor protection with reported issues of coverage and immunogenicity. Since there are no approved prophylactic therapeutics for KFDV, type I IFN-α/β subtypes were assessed for antiviral potency against KFDV in cell culture.Conclusions/SignificanceTreatment of cell culture with IFN does not appear to be suitable for KFDV eradication and the assay used for such studies should be carefully considered. Further, it appears that the NS5 protein is sufficient to permit KFDV to bypass the antiviral properties of IFN. We suggest that other prophylactic therapeutics should be evaluated in place of IFN for treatment of individuals with KFDV disease.     

A pigtailed macaque model of Kyasanur Forest disease virus and Alkhurma hemorrhagic disease virus pathogenesis

Kyasanur Forest disease virus (KFDV) and the closely related Alkhurma hemorrhagic disease virus (AHFV) are emerging flaviviruses that cause severe viral hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Increasing geographical expansion and case numbers, particularly of KFDV in southwest India, class these viruses as a public health threat. Viral pathogenesis is not well understood and additional vaccines and antivirals are needed to effectively counter the impact of these viruses. However, current animal models of KFDV pathogenesis do not accurately reproduce viral tissue tropism or clinical outcomes observed in humans. Here, we show that pigtailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina) infected with KFDV or AHFV develop viremia that peaks 2 to 4 days following inoculation. Over the course of infection, animals developed lymphocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, and elevated liver enzymes. Infected animals exhibited hallmark signs of human disease characterized by a flushed appearance, piloerection, dehydration, loss of appetite, weakness, and hemorrhagic signs including epistaxis. Virus was commonly present in the gastrointestinal tract, consistent with human disease caused by KFDV and AHFV where gastrointestinal symptoms (hemorrhage, vomiting, diarrhea) are common. Importantly, RNAseq of whole blood revealed that KFDV downregulated gene expression of key clotting factors that was not observed during AHFV infection, consistent with increased severity of KFDV disease observed in this model. This work characterizes a nonhuman primate model for KFDV and AHFV that closely resembles human disease for further utilization in understanding host immunity and development of antiviral countermeasures.     

Ancient ancestry of KFDV and AHFV revealed by complete genome analyses of viruses isolated from ticks and mammalian hosts

Background

Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV) and Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) cause significant human disease and mortality in Saudi Arabia and India, respectively. Despite their distinct geographic ranges, AHFV and KFDV share a remarkably high sequence identity. Given its emergence decades after KFDV, AHFV has since been considered a variant of KFDV and thought to have arisen from an introduction of KFDV to Saudi Arabia from India. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we analyzed the full length genomes of 16 AHFV and 3 KFDV isolates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Viral genomes were sequenced and compared to two AHFV sequences available in GenBank. Sequence analyses revealed higher genetic diversity within AHFVs isolated from ticks than human AHFV isolates. A Bayesian coalescent phylogenetic analysis demonstrated an ancient divergence of AHFV and KFDV of approximately 700 years ago.

Conclusions/Significance

The high sequence diversity within tick populations and the presence of competent tick vectors in the surrounding regions, coupled with the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, indicate possible viral range expansion or a larger geographic range than previously thought. The divergence of AHFV from KFDV nearly 700 years ago suggests other AHFV/KFDV-like viruses might exist in the regions between Saudi Arabia and India. Given the human morbidity and mortality associated with these viruses, these results emphasize the importance of more focused study of these significant public health threats.     

Complete coding sequence of the Alkhurma virus, a tick-borne flavivirus causing severe hemorrhagic fever in humans in Saudi Arabia

To date, tick-borne flaviviruses responsible for hemorrhagic fever in humans have been isolated in Siberia (Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus), India (Kyasanur Forest disease virus, KFDV), and in Saudi Arabia (Alkhurma virus, ALKV). Prior to this study, only partial coding sequences of these severe pathogens had been determined. We report here the complete coding sequence of ALK virus, which was determined to be 10,248 nucleotides (nt) long, and to encode a single 3,416 amino acid polyprotein. Independent analyses of the complete polyprotein and the envelope protein provided genetic and phylogenetic evidence that ALKV belongs to the tick-borne flavivirus group, within which it is most closely related to KFDV. Analysis of structural genes, genetic distances, and evolutionary relationship indicate that ALKV and KFDV derived from a common phylogenetic ancestor and constitute two genetic subtypes of the same virus species according to current genetic criteria of classification.     

Comparative Pathogenesis of Alkhumra Hemorrhagic Fever and Kyasanur Forest Disease Viruses in a Mouse Model

Kyasanur Forest disease virus (KFDV) and Alkhumra hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV) are genetically closely-related, tick-borne flaviviruses that cause severe, often fatal disease in humans. Flaviviruses in the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) complex typically cause neurological disease in humans whereas patients infected with KFDV and AHFV predominately present with hemorrhagic fever. A small animal model for KFDV and AHFV to study the pathogenesis and evaluate countermeasures has been lacking mostly due to the need of a high biocontainment laboratory to work with the viruses. To evaluate the utility of an existing mouse model for tick-borne flavivirus pathogenesis, we performed serial sacrifice studies in BALB/c mice infected with either KFDV strain P9605 or AHFV strain Zaki-1. Strikingly, infection with KFDV was completely lethal in mice, while AHFV caused no clinical signs of disease and no animals succumbed to infection. KFDV and high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines were detected in the brain at later time points, but no virus was found in visceral organs; conversely, AHFV Zaki-1 and elevated levels of cytokines were found in the visceral organs at earlier time points, but were not detected in the brain. While infection with either virus caused a generalized leukopenia, only AHFV Zaki-1 induced hematologic abnormalities in infected animals. Our data suggest that KFDV P9605 may have lost its ability to cause hemorrhagic disease as the result of multiple passages in suckling mouse brains. However, likely by virtue of fewer mouse passages, AHFV Zaki-1 has retained the ability to replicate in visceral organs, cause hematologic abnormalities, and induce pro-inflammatory cytokines without causing overt disease. Given these striking differences, the use of inbred mice and the virus passage history need to be carefully considered in the interpretation of animal studies using these viruses.     

Local host-tick coextinction in neotropical forest fragments

Ticks are obligatory parasites with complex life cycles that often depend on larger bodied vertebrates as final hosts. These traits make them particularly sensitive to local coextinction with their host. Loss of wildlife abundance and diversity should thus lead to loss of tick abundance and diversity to the point where only generalist tick species remain. However, direct empirical tests of these hypotheses are lacking, despite their relevance to our understanding of tick-borne disease emergence in disturbed environments. Here, we compare vertebrate and tick communities across 12 forest islands and peninsulas in the Panama Canal that ranged 1000-fold in size (2.6–2811.3?ha). We used drag sampling and camera trapping to directly assess the abundance and diversity of communities of questing ticks and vertebrate hosts. We found that the abundance and species richness of ticks were positively related to those of wildlife. Specialist tick species were only present in fragments where their final hosts were found. Further, less diverse tick communities had a higher relative abundance of the generalist tick species Amblyomma oblongoguttatum, a potential vector of spotted fever group rickettsiosis. These findings support the host-parasite coextinction hypothesis, and indicate that loss of wildlife can indeed have cascading effects on tick communities. Our results also imply that opportunities for pathogen transmission via generalist ticks may be higher in habitats with degraded tick communities. If these patterns are general, then tick identities and abundances serve as useful bioindicators of ecosystem health, with low tick diversity reflecting low wildlife diversity and a potentially elevated risk of interspecific disease transmission via remaining host species and generalist ticks.     

Characterization of Ixophilin,A Thrombin Inhibitor from the Gut of Ixodes scapularis

Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, vectors several human pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease in North America. Pathogen transmission to the vertebrate host occurs when infected ticks feed on the mammalian host to obtain a blood meal. Efforts to understand how the tick confronts host hemostatic mechanisms and imbibes a fluid blood meal have largely focused on the anticoagulation strategies of tick saliva. The blood meal that enters the tick gut remains in a fluid state for several days during the process of feeding, and the role of the tick gut in maintaining the blood-meal fluid is not understood. We now demonstrate that the tick gut produces a potent inhibitor of thrombin, a key enzyme in the mammalian coagulation cascade. Chromatographic fractionation of engorged tick gut proteins identified one predominant thrombin inhibitory activity associated with an approximately 18 kDa protein, henceforth referred to as Ixophilin. The ixophilin gene was preferentially transcribed in the guts of feeding nymphs. Expression began after 24 hours of feeding, coincident with the flow of host blood into the tick gut. Immunity against Ixophilin delayed tick feeding, and decreased feeding efficiency significantly. Surprisingly, immunity against Ixophilin resulted in increased Borrelia burgdorferi transmission to the host, possibly due to delayed feeding and increased transmission opportunity. These observations illuminate the potential drawbacks of targeting individual tick proteins in a functional suite. They also underscore the need to identify the “anticoagulome” of the tick gut, and to prioritize a critical subset of anticoagulants that could be targeted to efficiently thwart tick feeding, and block pathogen transmission to the vertebrate host.     

Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic: a model for Lyme disease

A greater understanding of the rate at which emerging disease advances spatially has both ecological and applied significance. Analyzing the spread of vector-borne disease can be relatively complex when the vector's acquisition of a pathogen and subsequent transmission to a host occur in different life stages. A contemporary example is Lyme disease. A long-lived tick vector acquires infection during the larval blood meal and transmits it as a nymph. We present a reaction-diffusion model for the ecological dynamics governing the velocity of the current epidemic's spread. We find that the equilibrium density of infectious tick nymphs (hence the risk of human disease) can depend on density-independent survival interacting with biotic effects on the tick's stage structure. The local risk of infection reaches a maximum at an intermediate level of adult tick mortality and at an intermediate rate of juvenile tick attacks on mammalian hosts. If the juvenile tick attack rate is low, an increase generates both a greater density of infectious nymphs and an increased spatial velocity. However, if the juvenile attack rate is relatively high, nymph density may decline while the epidemic's velocity still increases. Velocities of simulated two-dimensional epidemics correlate with the model pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0), but calculating R0 involves parameters of both host infection dynamics and the vector's stage-structured dynamics.     

Capybaras and ticks in the urban areas of Uberlândia,Minas Gerais,Brazil: ecological aspects for the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases

In Brazil capybara, the biggest existing rodent species, and associated tick species, Amblyomma cajennense and Amblyomma dubitatum, are undergoing an unplanned host and parasite population expansion in both urban and rural areas. However, scientific information about such issue, particularly in urban areas, is scanty. Such rodent and ticks are associated in some municipalities, particularly in southeastern Brazil, with the transmission of the highly lethal Rickettsia rickettsia caused spotted-fever. In this study ecological aspects related to the establishment and expansion of capybaras and ticks in urban areas of Uberlandia, Minas Gerais State, Brazil were evaluated. For this purpose, capybara and tick abundance in four urban areas and an ecological reserve was determined. Abundance of capybaras varied between areas and over the sampling period and these differences were related to human activities. A positive correlation was found between capybara and tick abundance, however, the tick species had an uneven distribution within the municipality and environmental factors rather than host availability were blamed for such. On the whole these observations show that capybara populations in urban areas are associated to high environmental infestation of ticks and the increased risk of bites and of pathogen transmission to humans. At the same time the uneven distribution of tick species might implicate in an unequal risk of tick-borne diseases within the same urban area.     

Differential sources of host species heterogeneity influence the transmission and control of multihost parasites

Controlling parasites that infect multiple host species often requires targeting single species that dominate transmission. Yet, it is rarely recognised that such ‘key hosts’ can arise through disparate mechanisms, potentially requiring different approaches for control. We identify three distinct, but not mutually exclusive, processes that underlie host species heterogeneity: infection prevalence, population abundance and infectiousness. We construct a theoretical framework to isolate the role of each process from ecological data and to explore the outcome of different control approaches. Applying this framework to data on 11 gastrointestinal parasites in small mammal communities across the eastern United States reveals variation not only in the magnitude of transmission asymmetries among host species but also in the processes driving heterogeneity. These differences influence the efficiency by which different control strategies reduce transmission. Identifying and tailoring interventions to a specific type of key host may therefore enable more effective management of multihost parasites.     

Restriction of Francisella novicida Genetic Diversity during Infection of the Vector Midgut

The genetic diversity of pathogens, and interactions between genotypes, can strongly influence pathogen phenotypes such as transmissibility and virulence. For vector-borne pathogens, both mammalian hosts and arthropod vectors may limit pathogen genotypic diversity (number of unique genotypes circulating in an area) by preventing infection or transmission of particular genotypes. Mammalian hosts often act as “ecological filters” for pathogen diversity, where novel variants are frequently eliminated because of stochastic events or fitness costs. However, whether vectors can serve a similar role in limiting pathogen diversity is less clear. Here we show using Francisella novicida and a natural tick vector of Francisella spp. (Dermacentor andersoni), that the tick vector acted as a stronger ecological filter for pathogen diversity compared to the mammalian host. When both mice and ticks were exposed to mixtures of F. novicida genotypes, significantly fewer genotypes co-colonized ticks compared to mice. In both ticks and mice, increased genotypic diversity negatively affected the recovery of available genotypes. Competition among genotypes contributed to the reduction of diversity during infection of the tick midgut, as genotypes not recovered from tick midguts during mixed genotype infections were recovered from tick midguts during individual genotype infection. Mediated by stochastic and selective forces, pathogen genotype diversity was markedly reduced in the tick. We incorporated our experimental results into a model to demonstrate how vector population dynamics, especially vector-to-host ratio, strongly affected pathogen genotypic diversity in a population over time. Understanding pathogen genotypic population dynamics will aid in identification of the variables that most strongly affect pathogen transmission and disease ecology.     

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.     

Loss of forest cover and host functional diversity increases prevalence of avian malaria parasites in the Atlantic Forest

Host phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity are thought to contribute to parasite community assembly and infection rates. However, recent landscape level anthropogenic changes may disrupt host-parasite systems by impacting functional and phylogenetic diversity of host communities. We examined whether changes in host functional and phylogenetic diversity, forest cover, and minimum temperature influence the prevalence, diversity, and distributions of avian haemosporidian parasites (genera Haemoproteus and Plasmodium) across 18 avian communities in the Atlantic Forest. To explore spatial patterns in avian haemosporidian prevalence and taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, we surveyed 2241 individuals belonging to 233 avian species across a deforestation gradient. Mean prevalence and parasite diversity varied considerably across avian communities and parasites responded differently to host attributes and anthropogenic changes. Avian malaria prevalence (termed herein as an infection caused by Plasmodium parasites) was higher in deforested sites, and both Plasmodium prevalence and taxonomic diversity were negatively related to host functional diversity. Increased diversity of avian hosts increased local taxonomic diversity of Plasmodium lineages but decreased phylogenetic diversity of this parasite genus. Temperature and host phylogenetic diversity did not influence prevalence and diversity of haemosporidian parasites. Variation in the diversity of avian host traits that promote parasite encounter and vector exposure (host functional diversity) partially explained the variation in avian malaria prevalence and diversity. Recent anthropogenic landscape transformation (reduced proportion of native forest cover) had a major influence on avian malaria occurrence across the Atlantic Forest. This suggests that, for Plasmodium, host phylogenetic diversity was not a biotic filter to parasite transmission as prevalence was largely explained by host ecological attributes and recent anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that, similar to human malaria and other vector-transmitted pathogens, prevalence of avian malaria parasites will likely increase with deforestation.     

Tick tubes reduce blacklegged tick burdens on white-footed mice in Pennsylvania,USA

Lyme disease cases are increasing in the United States. The vector of the pathogen that causes Lyme disease is the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say) (Acari:Ixodidae). While there are several tick control options, many are expensive or involve large-scale or ecological interventions such as landscape acaricide spraying or wildlife baiting. Tick control tubes, cardboard tubes with acaricide-treated cotton that can be used as nesting material by tick hosts, offer an alternative to more invasive tick control by treating tick hosts with an acaricide. In this study, tick tubes with cotton treated with two formulations of acaricide and water as a control were evaluated for wildlife use and for tick burden reductions on Peromyscus spp. an important reservoir host for the Lyme disease pathogen. Tick tubes were deployed for four weeks. Ticks parasitizing Peromyscus spp. and cotton use by wildlife were evaluated pre-deployment and post-deployment. Cotton from both treatments was used similarly, and permethrin-treated cotton was used more frequently than the control. In addition, I. scapularis were eliminated from hosts captured in treatment plots post-tick tube deployment. Tick tubes show promise as a tool for tick control on Peromyscus spp., especially as part of an integrated pest management plan.     

Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease

Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors—proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river—collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect I. scapularis already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where I. scapularis will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.     

Novel Insights into Cell Entry of Emerging Human Pathogenic Arenaviruses

Viral hemorrhagic fevers caused by emerging RNA viruses of the Arenavirus family are among the most devastating human diseases. Climate change, global trade, and increasing urbanization promote the emergence and re-emergence of these human pathogenic viruses. Emerging pathogenic arenaviruses are of zoonotic origin and reservoir-to-human transmission is crucial for spillover into human populations. Host cell attachment and entry are the first and most fundamental steps of every virus infection and represent major barriers for zoonotic transmission. During host cell invasion, viruses critically depend on cellular factors, including receptors, co-receptors, and regulatory proteins of endocytosis. An in-depth understanding of the complex interaction of a virus with cellular factors implicated in host cell entry is therefore crucial to predict the risk of zoonotic transmission, define the tissue tropism, and assess disease potential. Over the past years, investigation of the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying host cell invasion of human pathogenic arenaviruses uncovered remarkable viral strategies and provided novel insights into viral adaptation and virus–host co-evolution that will be covered in the present review.     

Vector-host interactions in disease transmission

Tick-borne spirochetes include borreliae that cause Lyme disease and relapsing fever in humans. They survive in a triangle of parasitic interactions between the spirochete and its vertebrate host, the spirochete and its tick vector, and the host and the tick. Until recently, the significance of vector-host interactions in the transmission of arthropod-borne disease agents has been overlooked. However, there is now compelling evidence that the pharmacological activity of tick saliva can have a profound effect on pathogen transmission both from infected tick to uninfected host, and from infected host to uninfected tick. The salivary glands of ticks provide a pharmacopoeia of anti-inflammatory, anti-haemostatic and anti-immune molecules. These include bioactive proteins that control histamine, bind immunoglobulins, and inhibit the alternative complement cascade. The effect of these molecules is to provide a privileged site at the tick-host interface in which borreliae and other tick-borne pathogens are sheltered from the normal innate and acquired host immune mechanisms that combat infections. Understanding the key events at the tick vector-host interface, that promote spirochete infection and transmission, will provide a better understanding of the epidemiology and ecology of these important human pathogens.     

Host and geographic barriers shape the competition,coexistence, and extinction patterns of influenza A (H1N1) viruses

The influenza virus mutates and spreads rapidly, making it suitable for studying evolutionary and ecological processes. The ecological factors and processes by which different lineages of influenza compete or coexist within hosts through time and across geographical space are poorly known. We hypothesized that competition would be stronger for influenza viruses infecting the same host compared to different hosts (the Host Barrier Hypothesis), and for those with a higher cross‐region transmission intensity (the Geographic Barrier Hypothesis). Using available sequences of the influenza A (H1N1) virus in GenBank, we identified six lineages, twelve clades, and several replacement events. We found that human‐hosted lineages had a higher cross‐region transmission intensity than swine‐hosted lineages. Co‐occurrence probabilities of lineages infecting the same host were lower than those infecting different hosts, and human‐hosted lineages had lower co‐occurrence probabilities and genetic diversity than swine‐hosted lineages. These results show that H1N1 lineages infecting the same host or with high cross‐region transmission rates experienced stronger competition and extinction pressures than those infecting different hosts or with low cross‐region transmission. Our study highlights how host and geographic barriers shape the competition, extinction, and coexistence patterns of H1N1 lineages and clades.