Relationship between resource selection, distribution, and abundance: a test with implications to theory and conservation

Much of applied and theoretical ecology is concerned with the interactions of habitat quality, animal distribution, and population abundance. We tested a technique that uses resource selection functions (RSF) to scale animal density to the relative probability of selecting a patch of habitat. Following an accurate survey of a reference block, the habitat-based density estimator can be used to predict population abundance for other areas with no or unreliable survey data. We parameterized and tested the technique using multiple years of radiotelemetry locations and survey data collected for woodland caribou across four landscape-level survey blocks. The habitat-based density estimator performed poorly. Predictions were no better than those of a simple area estimator and in some cases deviated from the observed by a factor of 10. We developed a simulation model to investigate factors that might influence prediction success. We experimentally manipulated population density, caribou distribution, ability of animals to track carrying capacity, and precision of the estimation equation. Our simulations suggested that interactions between population density, the size of the reference block, and the pattern of distribution can lead to large discrepancies between observed and predicted population numbers. Over- or undermatching patch carrying capacity and precision of the estimator can influence predictions, but the effect is much less extreme. Although there is some empirical and theoretical evidence to support a relationship between animal abundance and resource selection, our study suggests that a number of factors can seriously confound these relationships. Habitat-based density estimators might be effective where a stable, isolated population at equilibrium is used to generate predictions for areas with similar population parameters and ecological conditions.     

Using spotlight observations to predict resource selection and abundance for white-tailed deer

Spotlight surveys for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can yield large presence-only datasets applicable to a variety of resource selection modeling procedures. By understanding how populations distribute according to a given resource for a reference area, density and abundance can be predicted across new areas assuming the relationship between habitat quality (measured by an index of selection) and species distribution are equivalent. Habitat-based density estimators have been applied to wildlife species and are useful for addressing conservation and management concerns. Although achieving reliable population estimates is a primary goal for spotlighting studies, presence-only models have yet to be applied to spotlight data for estimating habitat selection and abundance for deer. From 2012 to 2017, we conducted spring spotlight surveys in each of 99 counties in Iowa, USA, and collected spatial locations for 20,149 groups of deer (n = 71,323 individuals). We used a resource selection function (RSF) based on deer locations to predict the relative probability of use for deer at the population level and to estimate statewide abundance. The number of deer observed statewide increased significantly with increasing RSF value for all years and the mean RSF value along survey transects explained 59% of the variability in county-level deer counts, indicating that a functional response between habitat quality and deer distribution existed at landscape scales. We applied our RSF to a habitat-based density estimator (extrapolation) and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) count models to predict statewide abundance from spotlight counts. Population estimates for 2012 were variable, indicating that atypical weather conditions may affect spotlight counts and population estimates in some years. For 2013–2017, we predicted a mean population of 439,129 (95% CI ∼ ± 55,926), 440,360 (∼ ± 43,676), and 465,959 (∼ ± 51,242) deer across years for extrapolation, ZIP, and ZINB models, respectively. Estimates from all models were not significantly different than estimates from an existing deer population accounting model in Iowa for 2013 and 2016, and differed by <76,000 deer for all models from 2013–2017. Extrapolation and ZIP models performed similarly and differed by <2,897 deer across all years, whereas ZINB models showed inconsistencies in model convergence and precision of estimates. Our results indicate that presence-only models are capable of producing reliable and precise estimates of resource selection and abundance for deer at broad landscape scales in Iowa and provide a tool for estimating deer abundance in a spatially explicit manner. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Weak population regulation in ecological time series

How strongly natural populations are regulated has a long history of debate in ecology. Here, we discuss concepts of population regulation appropriate for stochastic population dynamics. We then analyse two large collections of data sets with autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models, using model selection techniques to find best-fitting models. We estimated two metrics of population regulation: the characteristic return rate of populations to stationarity and the variability of the stationary distribution (the long-term distribution of population abundance). Empirically, longer time series were more likely to show weakly regulated population dynamics. For data sets of length ≥ 20, more than 35% had characteristic return times > 6 years, and more than 29% had stationary distributions whose coefficients of variation were more than two times greater than would be the case if they were maximally regulated. These results suggest that many natural populations are weakly regulated.
Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 21–31     

Offspring performance in dynamic habitats: key factors for a riparian carabid beetle

Abstract.  1. Knowledge of the ecology of carabid species is largely restricted to adults, although larval mortality is assumed to be the key factor in overall mortality. As low-mobility larvae are unable to avoid unfavourable conditions, habitat selection of reproducing adults should be clearly affected by the habitat factors which determine offspring performance.
2. The present study examines the key habitat factors governing the distribution patterns of Bembidion velox larvae and adults on the river banks of the River Elbe by means of habitat suitability models. The validity of the determined habitat factors for offspring performance and survival was tested in laboratory experiments.
3. In the field, B. velox adults as well as larvae show a strong association with semi-terrestrial, sandy, open soil habitats.
4. In the laboratory, overall mortality of larvae reared in different substrates was lowest in sand of medium grain size mixed with fine and coarse sand. The first larval instars in particular reacted sensitively to variations in grain size. Furthermore, flood resistance of eggs was demonstrated, as 90% of larvae hatched under permanently flooded conditions.
5. Short development times were recorded, with 4–7 days for hatching of young larvae from eggs after oviposition and approximately 28 days for the development of adults from newly hatched larvae. This probably increases the survival probability for the pre-imaginal stages in dynamic habitats.
6. In conclusion, it can be said that reproductive success is strongly dependent on oviposition site selection by adults as this reflects the ecological demands of the immature stages.     

Testing for context-dependence in a processing chain interaction among detritus-feeding aquatic insects

Abstract 1. Scirtid beetles may benefit mosquitoes Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Say) by consuming whole leaves and leaving behind fine particles required by mosquito larvae. Such interactions based on the sequential use of a resource that occurs in multiple forms are known as processing chains.
2. Models of processing chains predict that interactions can vary from commensal (0, +) to amensal (0, –), depending on how quickly resource is processed in the absence of consumers.
3. The scirtid– O. triseriatus system was used to test the prediction derived from processing chain models that, as consumer-independent processing increases, scirtids benefit mosquitoes less. Consumer-independent processing rate was manipulated by using different leaf species that vary in decay rate, or by physically crushing a single leaf type to different degrees.
4. Although scirtids increased the production of fine particles, the effects of scirtids on mosquitoes were weak and were not dependent on consumer-independent processing rate.
5. In the leaf manipulation experiment, a correlation between scirtid feeding and consumer-independent processing was detected. Numerical simulations suggest that such a correlation may eliminate shifts from commensal to amensal at equilibrium; because mosquito populations are typically not at equilibrium, however, this correlation may not be important.
6. There was evidence that mosquitoes affected scirtids negatively, which is inconsistent with the structure of processing chain interactions in models. Processing chain models need to incorporate more detail on the biology of scirtids and O. triseriatus , especially alternative mechanisms of interaction, if they are to describe scirtid– O. triseriatus dynamics accurately.     

Components of Grizzly Bear Habitat Selection: Density,Habitats, Roads,and Mortality Risk

Abstract: We used resource selection functions (RSF) to estimate the relative probability of use for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) adjacent to the Parsnip River, British Columbia, Canada, 1998-2003. We collected data from 30 radiocollared bears on a rolling plateau where a large portion of the landscape had been modified by human activities, primarily forestry. We also monitored 24 radiocollared bears in mountain areas largely inaccessible to humans. Bears that lived on the plateau existed at less than one-quarter the density of bears in the mountains. Plateau bears ate more high-quality food items, such as meat and berries, leading us to conclude that food limitation was not responsible for the differences in densities. We hypothesized that plateau bears were limited by human-caused mortality associated with roads constructed for forestry activities. Independent estimates of bear population size from DNA-based mark-recapture techniques allowed us to link populations to habitats using RSF models to scale habitat use patterns to population density. To evaluate whether differences in land-cover type, roads, or mortality risk could account for the disparity in density we used the mountain RSF model to predict habitat use and number of bears on the plateau and vice versa. We predicted increases ranging from 34 bears to 96 bears on the plateau when switching model coefficients, excluding land-cover types; when exchanging land-cover coefficients, the model predicted that the plateau population would be 9 bears lower than was observed. Large reductions in the numbers of mountain bears were predicted by habitat-selection models of bears using the plateau landscape. Although RSF models estimated in mountain and plateau landscapes could not predict bear use and abundance in the other areas, contrasts in models between areas provided a useful tool for examining the effects of human activities on grizzly bears.     

Inter-sexual combat and resource allocation into body parts in the spider, Stegodyphus lineatus

Abstract.  1. Sexual conflict, which results from the divergence of genetic interests between males and females, is predicted to affect multiple behavioural, physiological, and morphological traits.
2. Sexual conflict over mating may interact with population density to produce predictable changes in resource allocation into inter-sexual armament.
3. In the spider Stegodyphus lineatus , males fight with females over re-mating. The outcome of the fight is influenced by the cephalothorax size of the contestants. The investment in armament – the cephalothorax, may be traded-off against investment in abdomen, which is a trait that affects survival and fecundity. Pay-offs may depend on population density. Both sexes are expected to adjust resource allocation into different body parts accordingly.
4. Males had increased cephalothorax/body size ratio in low densities where probability of finding another receptive female is low and females had increased cephalothorax/body size ratio in high densities where cumulative costs of multiple mating are high.
5. The results support the theoretical conjecture that population density affects resource allocation into inter-sexual armament and call for further research on the interaction between sexual selection and population density.     

Scaling from individuals to networks in food webs

1.  Food webs, the set of predator–prey interactions in an ecosystem, are a prototypical complex system. Much research to date has concentrated on the use of models to identify and explain the key structural features which characterize food webs.
2.  These models often fall into two general categories: (i) phenomenological models which are built upon a set of heuristic rules in order to explain some empirical observation and (ii) population-level models in which interactions between individuals result in emergent properties for the food web. Both types of models have helped to uncover how food-web structure is a product of factors such as foraging behaviour, prey selection and species' body sizes.
3.  Historically, the two types of models have followed rather different approaches to the problem. Despite the apparent differences, the overlap between the two styles of models is substantial. Examples are highlighted here.
4.  By paying greater attention to both the similarities and differences between the two, we will be better able to demonstrate the ecological insights offered by phenomenological models. This will help us, for example, design experiments which could validate or refute underlying assumptions of the models. By linking models to data, scaling from individuals to networks, we will be closer to understanding the true origins of food-web structure.     

Functional responses in the habitat selection of a generalist mega‐herbivore,the African savannah elephant

Resource selection function (RSF) models are commonly used to quantify species/habitat associations and predict species occurrence on the landscape. However, these models are sensitive to changes in resource availability and can result in a functional response to resource abundance, where preferences change as a function of availability. For generalist species, which utilize a wide range of habitats and resources, quantifying habitat selection is particularly challenging. Spatial and temporal changes in resource abundance can result in changes in selection preference affecting the robustness of habitat selection models. We examined selection preference across a wide range of ecological conditions for a generalist mega‐herbivore, the African savanna elephant Loxodonta africana, to quantify general patterns in selection and to illustrate the importance of functional responses in elephant habitat selection. We found a functional response in habitat selection across both space and time for tree cover, with tree cover being unimportant to habitat selection in the mesic, eastern populations during the wet season. A temporal functional response for water was also evident, with greater variability in selection during the wet season. Selection for low slopes, high tree cover, and far distance from people was consistent across populations; however, variability in selection coefficients changed as a function of the abundance of a given resource within the home range. This variability of selection coefficients could be used to improve confidence estimations for inferences drawn from habitat selection models. Quantifying functional responses in habitat selection is one way to better predict how wildlife will respond to an ever‐changing environment, and they provide promising insights into the habitat selection of generalist species.     

Genotypic selection shapes patterns of within-species diversity in experimental plant populations

1.  An increasing body of evidence suggests that within-species diversity plays an important role for community and ecosystem functioning, alters complex trophic interactions and affects patterns of species diversity and coexistence. Nonetheless, we lack a good understanding of how genotypic trait variation translates into shifts in the relative abundance of genotypes within populations.
2.  In this study, we show that genotypic selection strongly alters dominance relationships among genotypes over a period of 5 years. This resulted in remarkably consistent changes in the proportional representation of genotypes, and in a concomitant decline of diversity and evenness in our experimental populations.
3.  High growth rates and the production of large offspring were positively associated with genotypic performance. Vegetative abundances of genotypes translated monotonically into flowering frequencies.
4.   Synthesis . We conclude that genotypic selection markedly affects patterns of diversity and consistently alters genotypic abundance and mean trait distributions in plant populations over a relatively short period of time.     

Geomorphic dynamics of floodplains: ecological implications and a potential modelling strategy

1.  The dynamics of channel migration and floodplain renewal constitute an important control of the ecological diversity of river corridors. Restoration initiatives should therefore assess whether these dynamics must be reinstated in order to address the cause rather than the symptoms of floodplain biodiversity decline.
2.  Restoration of reach-scale dynamism in rivers where this is a natural behavioural process will restore smaller-scale geomorphological and sedimentological processes that encourage vegetation regeneration, but may require catchment-scale management of material flows.
3.  Channel dynamics depend on the style of river–floodplain interaction, and this may be summarised in qualitative, classificatory, sedimentological models of floodplain architecture that have been somewhat neglected in the ecological literature.
4.  One approach to the assessment of floodplain biodiversity and its restoration would be through the development of simulation models based on specified channel styles, and involving simplified hydrodynamics and successional changes. Such models, currently the subject of research as a spin-off from modelling studies of landscape evolution, would permit evaluation of the consequences for ecological diversity of implementing various management options that may affect the dynamics of channel migration.     

Neither the devil nor the deep blue sea: larval mortality factors fail to explain the abundance and distribution of Tischeria ekebladella

Abstract.  1. The distribution, abundance and population dynamics of herbivorous insects may be affected by trophic interactions, by abiotic influences, or by intra-specific processes. Relatively little is known about how trophic influences vary across space. Here, we investigate spatial variation in mortality in the oak-feeding leaf miner Tischeria ekebladella as attributable to individual causal agents.
2. Leaf miners were experimentally introduced on 67 trees on an island 5 km² in area in south-western Finland. On each tree, some larvae were protected by a muslin bag, others by a glue barrier around the branch and some left exposed.
3. In the bagged transplants, 78.4% of larvae survived, compared with only 9.6% in the other two treatments. Most of the mortality was because of airborne agents: mortality on branches sheltered by a glue barrier was as high as on fully exposed branch tips.
4. We consider mortality caused by parasitoid wasps to be the main source of larval death and the primary factor driving general patterns of survival. The effects of bird predation and premature leaf abscission were negligible.
5. We detected spatial aggregation in larval survival and parasitism rates at the level of individual trees, but not across the landscape.
6. Spatial variation in overall leaf miner survival, parasitism and leaf abscission does not suffice to explain patterns of incidence and abundance of wild T. ekebladella on experimental trees. Rather, we identify metapopulation dynamics as a likely determinant of the spatial distribution of T. ekebladella in the landscape.     

Scale for resource selection functions

Resource selection functions (RSFs) are statistical models defined to be proportional to the probability of use of a resource unit. My objective with this review is to identify how RSFs can be used to unravel the influence of scale in habitat selection. In wildlife habitat studies, including radiotelemetry, RSFs can be estimated using a variety of statistical methods, all of which can be used to explore the role of scale. All RSFs are bounded by the resolution of data and the spatial extent of the study area, but also allow predictor covariates to be measured at a variety of scales. Conditional logistic regression permits designs (e.g. matched case) that relate the process of habitat selection to a limited domain of resource units that might better characterize what is truly ‘available’ to the animal. Scale influences the process of habitat selection, e.g. food resources are often selected at fine spatial scales, whereas landscape patterns at much larger scales typically influence the location of home ranges. Scale also influences appropriate sampling in many ways: (1) heterogeneity might be obliterated (transmutation) if resolution or grain size is too large, (2) variance of habitat characteristics might be undersampled if extent or domain is too small, (3) timing and duration of observations can influence RSF models, and (d) both spatial and temporal autocorrelations can vary directly with the intensity of sampling. Using RSFs, researchers can examine habitat selection at multiple scales, and predictive models that bridge scales can be estimated. Using Geographical Information Systems, predictor covariates in RSF models can be measured at different scales easily so that the predictive ability of models at alternative spatial and temporal domains can be explored by the investigator. Identification of the scale that best explains the data can be evaluated by comparing alternative models using information‐theoretic metrics such as Akaike Information Criteria, and predictive capability of the models can be assessed using k‐fold cross validation.     

Accounting for spatial pattern when modeling organism-environment interactions

Statistical models of environment-abundance relationships may be influenced by spatial autocorrelation in abundance, environmental variables, or both. Failure to account for spatial autocorrelation can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding both the absolute and relative importance of environmental variables as determinants of abundance. We consider several classes of statistical models that are appropriate for modeling environment-abundance relationships in the presence of spatial autocorrelation, and apply these to three case studies: 1) abundance of voles in relation to habitat characteristics; 2) a plant competition experiment; and 3) abundance of Orbatid mites along environmental gradients. We find that when spatial pattern is accounted for in the modeling process, conclusions about environmental control over abundance can change dramatically. We conclude with five lessons: 1) spatial models are easy to calculate with several of the most common statistical packages; 2) results from spatially-structured models may point to conclusions radically different from those suggested by a spatially independent model; 3) not all spatial autocorrelation in abundances results from spatial population dynamics; it may also result from abundance associations with environmental variables not included in the model; 4) the different spatial models do have different mechanistic interpretations in terms of ecological processes – thus ecological model selection should take primacy over statistical model selection; 5) the conclusions of the different spatial models are typically fairly similar – making any correction is more important than quibbling about which correction to make.     

The size distribution of conspecific populations: the peoples of New Guinea

The size distribution of the language populations in New Guinea, which represent over 15% of the world's languages, is analysed using models analogous to the resource division models of species abundance distribution in ecological communities. A model distribution of resource segments reflecting population size is created by repeated selection of an existing resource segment and its division into two. We found that any dependency of the selection probability on the size of the segment generated negatively skewed abundance distributions after log transformation. Asymmetric segment division further exacerbated the negative skewness. Size-independent selection produced lognormal abundance distributions, irrespective of the segment division method. Size-dependent selection and asymmetric division were deemed reasonable assumptions since large language populations are more likely to generate isolates, which develop into new populations, than small ones, and these isolates are likely to be small relative to the progenitor population. A negatively skewed distribution of the log-transformed population sizes was therefore expected. However, the observed distributions were lognormal, scale invariant for areas containing between 100 and over 1000 language populations. The dynamics of language differentiation, as reflected by the models, may therefore be unimportant relative to the effect of variable growth rates among populations. All lognormal distributions from resource division models had a higher variance than the observed one, where half of the 1053 populations had between 350 and 3000 individuals. The possible mechanisms maintaining such a low variance around a modal population size of 1000 are discussed.     

Integrating plant–soil interactions into global carbon cycle models

1.  Plant–soil interactions play a central role in the biogeochemical carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and hydrological cycles. In the context of global environmental change, they are important both in modulating the impact of climate change and in regulating the feedback of greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) to the climate system.
2.  Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) represent the most advanced tools available to predict the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystem functions and to examine their feedbacks to climate change. The accurate representation of plant–soil interactions in these models is crucial to improving predictions of the effects of climate change on a global scale.
3.  In this paper, we describe the general structure of DGVMs that use plant functional types (PFTs) classifications as a means to integrate plant–soil interactions and illustrate how models have been developed to improve the simulation of: (a) soil carbon dynamics, (b) nitrogen cycling, (c) drought impacts and (d) vegetation dynamics. For each of these, we discuss some recent advances and identify knowledge gaps.
4.  We identify three ongoing challenges, requiring collaboration between the global modelling community and process ecologists. First, the need for a critical evaluation of the representation of plant–soil processes in global models; second, the need to supply and integrate knowledge into global models; third, the testing of global model simulations against large-scale multifactor experiments and data from observatory gradients.
5.   Synthesis . This paper reviews how plant–soil interactions are represented in DGVMs that use PFTs and illustrates some model developments. We also identify areas of ecological understanding and experimentation needed to reduce uncertainty in future carbon coupled climate change predictions.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

Long-term effects of ungulates on phytophagous insects

Abstract.  1. Most plants interact with a diverse suite of herbivores, allowing the opportunity for the existence of positive and negative interactions between highly dissimilar organisms. However, most studies on herbivorous interactions have been performed under the assumption that they occur mainly between similar species. Consequently, ecologists are still far from a full understanding of the ecological factors that determine insect population dynamics.
2. In this study, a 7-year field experiment was conducted that manipulated the presence of ungulates to evaluate their effects on the abundance, attack rate, and survival of four guilds of co-occurring herbivorous insects living on the same host plant: seed predators, stem borers, gall makers and sap suckers. These four guilds differed in habits and behaviour, the first three being sessile and endophytic and the last being free-living.
3. This study shows that the abundance of all four guilds was negatively affected by ungulates. However, the effect on attack rate differed among guilds, as mammals do not affect the seed predator attack rate. Ungulates also differentially affected insect survival, ingesting only seed predators and gall makers.
4. In summary, this study suggests that diverse mechanisms may affect different insect guilds in different ways. Therefore, competition between disparate herbivores appears to be complex and can be provoked by multiple mechanisms.