Effective population size and the rate and pattern of nucleotide substitutions

Both the overall rate of nucleotide substitution and the relative proportions of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions are predicted to vary between species that differ in effective population size (N_e). Our understanding of the genetic processes underlying these lineage-specific differences in molecular evolution is still developing. Empirical analyses indicate that variation in substitution rates and patterns caused by differences in N_e is often substantial, however, and must be accounted for in analyses of molecular evolution.     

Genetic and neutralization sensitivity of diverse HIV-1 env clones from chronically infected patients in China

As HIV-1 continues to spread in China from traditional high risk populations to the general public, its genetic makeup has become increasingly complex. However, the impact of these genetic changes on the biological and neutralization sensitivity of the virus is unknown. The current study aims to characterize the genetic, biological, and neutralization sensitivity of HIV-1 identified in China between 2004 and 2007. Based on a total of 107 full-length envelope genes obtained directly from the infected patients, we found that those viruses fell into three major genetic groups: CRF01_AE, subtype B', and subtype C/CRF07_BC/CRF08_BC/B'C. Pseudotyped viruses built upon the viable env genes have demonstrated their substantial variability in mediating viral entry and in sensitivity to neutralization by subtype-specific plasma pools and broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bnmAb). Many viruses are resistant to one or more bnmAb, including those known to have high potency against diverse viruses from outside China. Sequence and structural analysis has revealed several mechanisms by which these resistant viruses escape recognition from bnmAb. We believe that these results will help us to better understand the impact of genetic diversity on the neutralizing sensitivity of the viruses and to facilitate the design of immunogens capable of eliciting antibodies with potency and breadth similar to those of bnmAb.     

The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size

Ratios of effective populations size, N(e), to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect N(e)/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower N(e)/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects N(e)/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in N(e)/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift.     

Patterns of protein evolution in Tetrahymena thermophila: implications for estimates of effective population size

High levels of synonymous substitutions among alleles of the surface antigen SerH led to the hypothesis that Tetrahymena thermophila has a tremendously large effective population size, one that is greater than estimated for many prokaryotes (Lynch, M., and J. S. Conery. 2003. Science 302:1401-1404.). Here we show that SerH is unusual as there are substantially lower levels of synonymous variation at five additional loci (four nuclear and one mitochondrial) characterized from T. thermophila populations. Hence, the effective population size of T. thermophila, a model single-celled eukaryote, is lower and more consistent with estimates from other microbial eukaryotes. Moreover, reanalysis of SerH polymorphism data indicates that this protein evolves through a combination of vertical transmission of alleles and concerted evolution of repeat units within alleles. SerH may be under balancing selection due to a mechanism analogous to the maintenance of antigenic variation in vertebrate immune systems. Finally, the dual nature of ciliate genomes and particularly the amitotic divisions of processed macronuclear genomes may make it difficult to estimate accurately effective population size from synonymous polymorphisms. This is because selection and drift operate on processed chromosomes in macronuclei, where assortment of alleles, disruption of linkage groups, and recombination can alter the genetic landscape relative to more canonical eukaryotic genomes.     

Large global effective population sizes in Paramecium

The genetic effective population size (N(e)) of a species is an important parameter for understanding evolutionary dynamics because it mediates the relative effects of selection. However, because most N(e) estimates for unicellular organisms are derived either from taxa with poorly understood species boundaries or from host-restricted pathogens and most unicellular species have prominent phases of clonal propagation potentially subject to strong selective sweeps, the hypothesis that N(e) is elevated in single-celled organisms remains controversial. Drawing from observations on well-defined species within the genus Paramecium, we report exceptionally high levels of silent-site polymorphism, which appear to be a reflection of large N(e).     

Evolution of intrahost HIV-1 genetic diversity during chronic infection

HIV-1 is one of the fastest evolving entities known. Given that census population sizes of HIV-1 within individuals are much greater than the inverse mutation rate, every possible single point mutation in the viral genome occurs each generation. This enormous capability to generate genetic variation allows for escape from immune surveillance and antiviral therapy. However, compared to this potential, populations of HIV-1 within individuals exhibit little genetic variation. This discrepancy between the known mutation rate of HIV-1 and the average level of genetic variation in the env gene observed in vivo is reflected in comparisons of the actual numbers of productively infected cells, estimated as 10(7), and the effective population size, estimated as 10(3). Using approximate Bayesian computation, we evaluated several hypotheses based on a variety of selective and demographic processes to explain the low effective population size of HIV-1. Of the models we examined, the metapopulation model, in which HIV-1 evolves within an individual as a large collection of small subpopulations subject to frequent migration, extinction, and recolonization, was most consistent with the observed levels of genetic variation and the average frequencies of those variants. The metapopulation model links previous studies of viral dynamics and population genetics.     

Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low N_e can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N_e using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N_e/N_c). In general, N_e/N_c ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N_e was much larger than demographic N_e, probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N_e seemed to track N_c quite well, the genetic N_e‐estimates were often larger than N_c within populations. Estimates of genetic N_e for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (<N_c). Our results suggest that in fragmented populations, even low levels of gene flow may have important consequences for the interpretation of genetic estimates of N_e. Consequently, further studies are needed to understand how N_e estimated in local populations or the total metapopulation relates to actual rates of genetic drift and inbreeding.     

A century-long genetic record reveals that protist effective population sizes are comparable to those of macroscopic species

Effective population size (N_e) determines the rate of genetic drift and the relative influence of selection over random genetic changes. While free-living protist populations characteristically consist of huge numbers of cells (N), the absence of any estimates of contemporary N_e raises the question whether protist effective population sizes are comparably large. Using microsatellite genotype data of strains derived from revived cysts of the marine dinoflagellate Pentapharsodinium dalei from sections of a sediment record that spanned some 100 years, we present the first estimates of contemporary N_e for a local population in a free-living protist. The estimates of N_e are relatively small, of the order of a few 100 individuals, and thus are similar in magnitude to values of N_e reported for multicellular animals: the implications are that N_e of P. dalei is of many orders of magnitude lower than the number of cells present (N_e/N ∼ 10⁻¹²) and that stochastic genetic processes may be more prevalent in protist populations than previously anticipated.     

Dynamics of immunoglobulin sequence diversity in HIV-1 infected individuals

Advances in immunoglobulin (Ig) sequencing technology are leading to new perspectives on immune system dynamics. Much research in this nascent field has focused on resolving immune responses to viral infection. However, the dynamics of B-cell diversity in early HIV infection, and in response to anti-retroviral therapy, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigate these dynamics through bulk Ig sequencing of samples collected over 2 years from a group of eight HIV-1 infected patients, five of whom received anti-retroviral therapy during the first half of the study period. We applied previously published methods for visualizing and quantifying B-cell sequence diversity, including the Gini index, and compared their efficacy to alternative measures. While we found significantly greater clonal structure in HIV-infected patients versus healthy controls, within HIV patients, we observed no significant relationships between statistics of B-cell clonal expansion and clinical variables such as viral load and CD4⁺ count. Although there are many potential explanations for this, we suggest that important factors include poor sampling resolution and complex B-cell dynamics that are difficult to summarize using simple summary statistics. Importantly, we find a significant association between observed Gini indices and sequencing read depth, and we conclude that more robust analytical methods and a closer integration of experimental and theoretical work is needed to further our understanding of B-cell repertoire diversity during viral infection.     

16 Years of breed management brings substantial improvement in population genetics of the endangered Cleveland Bay Horse

The consequences of poor breed management and inbreeding can range from gradual declines in individual productivity to more serious fertility and mortality concerns. However, many small and closed groups, as well as larger unmanaged populations, are plagued by genetic regression, often due to a dearth in breeding support tools which are accessible and easy to use in supporting decision‐making. To address this, we have developed a population management tool (BCAS, Breed Conservation and Management System) based on individual relatedness assessed using pedigree‐based kinship, which offers breeding recommendations for such populations. Moreover, we demonstrate the success of this tool in 16 years of employment in a closed equine population native to the UK, most notably, the rate of inbreeding reducing from more than 3% per generation, to less than 0.5%, or that attributed to genetic drift, as assessed over the last 16 years of implementation. Furthermore, with adherence to this program, the long‐term impact of poor management has been reversed and the genetic resource within the breed has grown from an effective population size of 20 in 1994 to more than 140 in 2020. The development and availability of our BCAS for breed management and selection establish a new paradigm for the successful maintenance of genetic resources in animal populations.     

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, , is an important measure of the long‐term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine . Using the global variance‐based Sobol’ method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex–age classes that is most sensitive to may change accordingly.     

Clastogenic factors in plasma of HIV-1 infected patients

The objective of this study was to investigate the clastogenic activity of plasma ultrafiltrates from HIV-I infected patients. Clastogenic factors are chromosome-damaging agents with low molecular weight (<10,000 daltons) which cause chromosome aberrations, sister chromatid exchanges, DNA strand breakage, and gene mutation. They have first been described in the plasma of irradiated persons, but they are also found in hereditary breakage syndromes and chronic inflammatory diseases with autoimmune reactions. Their formation and their clastogenic effects are modulated by superoxide anion radicals. We analyzed a total of 22 HIV-1 positive patients in comparison to 20 reference plasma samples from healthy HIV negative blood donors of similar age. The plasma ultrafiltrates (filter cutoff 10,000 daltons) from patients induced a statistically significant increase in chromosomal breakage in the cytogenetic test system (20.5 ± 6.8 aberrations per 100 cells), while no increase was observed in test cultures exposed to plasma ultrafiltrates from healthy blood donors (6.3 ± 2.9 aberrations per 100 cells). The breakage values were slightly, but not significantly, lower in the 10 patients with more than 200 T-helper cells/ml (18 ± 4 aberrations per 100 cells), than in the 12 patients with less than 200 T-helper cells/ml (22.3 ± 7.9 aberrations per 100 cells). HIV patients with high clastogenic activity (induction of more than 20 aberrations per 100 cells, range 20 to 39) showed higher plasma levels for malondialdehyde than those with lower clastogenic activity (less than 20 aberrations per 100 cells, range 12 to 18). However, the difference was statistically not significant. Another lipid peroxidation product, 4-hydroxynonenal, was increased equally in both groups. There were no significant differences in water- and lipid-soluble plasma antioxidants between the low- and high-breakage group. In agreement with previous findings, the clastogenic effects of plasma ultrafiltrates in the test cultures were reduced by the antioxidant enzyme superoxide dismutase. The presence of clastogenic factors in the plasma of HIV patients is further evidence for a prooxidant state in these persons. Since clastogenic factor formation appears to occur at an early stage of the disease, it may be significant for virus release or activation, because of the superoxide anion stimulating effects of clastogenic factors. From a practical standpoint, clastogenic factors may be useful for evaluation of promising drugs.     

Pleistocene population expansions of Antarctic seals

We sequenced a portion ( c . 475 bp) of the mitochondrial control region of three species of Antarctic phocid carnivores (Weddell seal, Leptonychotes weddellii , N  = 181; crabeater seal, Lobodon carcinophaga , N  = 143; and Ross seal, Ommatophoca rossii , N  = 41) that live seasonally or permanently in the fast ice and seasonal pack ice of the western Amundsen and Ross seas of western Antarctica. We resolved 251 haplotypes with a haplotype diversity of 0.98 to 0.99. Bayesian estimates of Θ from the program LAMARC ranged from 0.075 for Weddell seals to 0.576 for crabeater seals. We used the values of theta to estimate female effective population sizes ( N_EF ), which were 40 700 to 63 000 for Weddell seals, 44 400 to 97 800 for Ross seals, and 358 500 to 531 900 for crabeater seals. We used mismatch distributions to test for historical population size expansions. Weddell seals and crabeater seals had significant, unimodal mean pairwise difference distributions ( P  = 0.56 and 0.36, respectively), suggesting that their populations expanded suddenly around 731 000 years ago (Weddell seals) and around 1.6 million years ago (crabeater seals). Both of these expansions occurred during times of intensified glaciations and may have been fostered by expanding pack ice habitat.     

Temporal genetic variation of mitochondrial DNA and the female effective population size of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We studied genetic drift of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype frequencies in a natural population of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The amount of genetic drift observed across temporally adjacent year classes (1986–89) was used to estimate variance effective (female) population size (N_ef). N_ef was estimated to be 14 308 and the ratio of female effective size to adult female census size was approximately 0.004, which is among the lowest value reported for vertebrate animals. Low effective size relative to census size among red drum in the northern Gulf may result from yearly fluctuations in the number of breeding females, high variance in female reproductive success, or both. Despite low genetic effective size relative to census size, the genetic effective population size of red drum in the northern Gulf appears sufficiently large to preclude potentially deleterious effects of inbreeding.     

Analysis of the evolutionary relationships of HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences using bayesian inference: implications for the origin of HIV-1

The most plausible origin of HIV-1 group M is an SIV lineage currently represented by SIVcpz isolated from the chimpanzee subspecies Pan troglodytes troglodytes. The origin of HIV-1 group O is less clear. Putative recombination between any of the HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences was tested using bootscanning and Bayesian-scanning plots, as well as a new method using a Bayesian multiple change-point (BMCP) model to infer parental sequences and crossing-over points. We found that in the case of highly divergent sequences, such as HIV-1/SIVcpz, Bayesian scanning and BMCP methods are more appropriate than bootscanning analysis to investigate spatial phylogenetic variation, including estimating the boundaries of the regions with discordant evolutionary relationships and the levels of support of the phylogenetic clusters under study. According to the Bayesian scanning plots and BMCP method, there was strong evidence for discordant phylogenetic clustering throughout the genome: (1) HIV-1 group O clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in middle pol, and partial vif/env; (2) SIVcpzGab1 clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in 3'pol/vif, and middle env; (3) HIV-1 group O grouped with SIVcpzCamUS and SIVcpzGab1 in p17/p24; (4) HIV-1 group M was more closely related to SIVcpzCamUS in 3'gag/pol and in middle pol, whereas in partial gp120 group M clustered with group O. Conditionally independent phylogenetic analysis inferred by maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods further confirmed these findings. The discordant phylogenetic relationships between the HIV-1/SIVcpz sequences may have been caused by ancient recombination events, but they are also due, at least in part, to altered rates of evolution between parental SIVcpz lineages.     

Reconstructing recent divergence: evaluating nonequilibrium population structure in New Zealand chinook salmon

Newly established or perturbed populations are often the focus of conservation concerns but they pose special challenges for population genetics because drift?migration equilibrium is unlikely. To advance our understanding of the evolution of such populations, we investigated structure and gene flow among populations of chinook salmon that formed via natural straying following introduction to New Zealand in the early 1900s. We examined 11 microsatellite loci from samples collected in several sites and years to address two questions: (i) what population differentiation has arisen in the ≈ 30 generations since salmon were introduced to New Zealand, relative to temporal variation within populations; and (ii) what are the approximate effective population sizes and amounts of gene flow in these populations? These questions are routinely addressed in studies of indigenous populations, but less often in the case of new populations and rarely with consideration of equilibrium assumptions. We show that despite the recent introduction, continued gene flow and high temporal variability among samples, detectable population structure has arisen among the New Zealand populations, consistent with their colonization pattern and isolation by geographical distance. Furthermore, we use simple individual‐based simulations and estimates of effective population sizes to estimate the effective gene flow among drainages under likely nonequilibrium conditions. Similar methodology may be broadly applicable to other studies of population structure and phenotypic evolution under similar nonequilibrium, high gene flow conditions.     

Disentangling the impact of demographic factors on population differentiation of an endangered freshwater crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) using population density and microsatellite data

1. Habitat fragmentation of stream ecosystems often results in decreased connectivity between populations and lower population sizes. Hence, understanding how habitat fragmentation affects genetic erosion is important for the preservation of freshwater biodiversity, in particular, as small populations suffer from loss of genetic diversity through genetic drift and loss of fitness because of inbreeding, increasing the risk of extinction. 2. Here, we assess the impact of demographic factors on population differentiation in the endangered freshwater crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes by analysing population genetic structure, estimating effective population sizes and comparing levels of polymorphism at five microsatellite loci with density estimates of 10 populations within a small French catchment that has become progressively confined to headwaters over the last six decades. 3. Levels of expected heterozygosity and allelic richness per population were relatively low (0.214–0.396 and 1.6–2.6, respectively). We found strong genetic differentiation between these geographically close populations (F_ST = 0.283), with weak statistical evidence for a pattern of isolation by distance. Estimates of effective population size were low (<150) in most populations, but potentially reached several thousands in three populations. 4. Population density and allelic richness were strongly positively correlated. A robust relationship between population density and heterozygosity values was also noted, but only after discarding two populations for which significant genetic signatures of a recent bottleneck were found; these two populations displayed high expected heterozygosity compared with a very low density. Populations with the highest densities of individuals had the highest effective population size estimates and vice versa. 5. Our results clearly show the importance of demographic factors and genetic drift on A. pallipes populations. Furthermore, analysis of genetic and population density data is a pragmatic and efficient approach to corroborate inferences from genetic data and can be particularly useful in the identification of populations experiencing a bottleneck and therefore in conservation genetics studies aiming at identifying priority populations for conservation.     

Understanding the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals of a continuous Theobroma cacao population from the Brazilian Amazon

Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Pará State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15 m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ($\widehat{r}$_p(m)=0.607) rather than among the fruits ($\widehat{r}$_p(m)=0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28 m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species.     

Inferring population history and demography using microsatellites, mitochondrial DNA, and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes

Microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) have traditionally been used in population genetics because of their variability and presumed neutrality, whereas genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are increasingly of interest because strong selective pressures shape their standing variation. Despite the potential for MHC genes, microsatellites, and mtDNA sequences to complement one another in deciphering population history and demography, the three are rarely used in tandem. Here we report on MHC, microsatellite, and mtDNA variability in a single large population of the eastern tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). We use the mtDNA mismatch distribution and, on microsatellite data, the imbalance index and bottleneck tests to infer aspects of population history and demography. Haplotype and allelic variation was high at all loci surveyed, and heterozygosity was high at the nuclear loci. We find concordance among neutral molecular markers that suggests our study population originated from post-Pleistocene expansions of multiple, fragmented sources that shared few migrants. Differences in N(e) estimates derived from haploid and diploid genetic markers are potentially attributable to secondary contact among source populations that experienced rapid mtDNA divergence and comparatively low levels of nuclear DNA divergence. We find strong evidence of natural selection acting on MHC genes and estimate long-term effective population sizes (N(e)) that are very large, making small selection intensities significant evolutionary forces in this population.