中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,since 1980s

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain‐filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change.     

基于ORYZA2000模型的北京地区旱稻适宜播种期分析

确定适宜播种期是制定合理的作物栽培管理方案的关键内容之一。在作物模型ORYZA2000有效性验证的基础上,以北京地区为例,利用该模型结合长期历史气候资料,对确定旱稻适宜播种期做了初步研究。结果表明：在不考虑水分因子条件下,北京地区旱稻297安全播期的范围较广,多年平均为3月26日-6月4日;受温度升高的影响,最早播期有提前趋势,而最晚播种期有延后趋势。在同一年份内,播期不同旱稻的产量也有一定的变化,呈现为先升高而后降低的趋势。播期过早或过晚导致生育期平均温度偏低是影响穗干物质累积且造成减产的主要原因,在适宜的播期范围内才能获得高产。以90%-100%当年最高产量潜力作为适宜播期的产量指标,确定北京地区旱稻297的适宜播期变化在5月11日-5月19日之间,相应的产量变化在6689-7257 kg/hm2范围内。研究方法可为其他地区旱稻的播期研究提供借鉴。     

Effect of Pre-Anthesis Drought Hardening on Post-Anthesis Physiological Characteristics,Yield and WUE in Winter Wheat

A drought event can cause yield loss or entire crops to fail. In order to study the effects of continuous drought on physiological characteristics, yield, and water use efficiency (WUE) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), the variety “Zhoumai 22” was grown in controlled water conditions of the pot-planted winter wheat under a mobile rainout shelter. Foot planting and safe wintering were used to evaluate, winter wheat under different drought conditions, including light, moderate and severe drought at the jointing, heading, and filling stages. The soil water content was controlled at 60–70%, 50–60%, or 40–50% of field capacity. Experimental trials included 3 pre-anthesis drought hardening, 3 three-stage continuous drought, and 1 test control conditions. Under drought stress conditions, winter wheat leaf water potential, soil plant analysis development (SPAD), photosynthesis parameters, and yield declined due to pre-anthesis drought hardening. And the degree of decline: continuous drought > pre-anthesis drought hardening. Changes in the post-anthesis photosynthetic capacity of winter wheat were mainly related to the pre-anthesis drought level, rather than post-anthesis rehydration. The threshold of non-stomata limiting factors caused by photosynthesis at the filling stage is 40–50%FC, while comprehensive yield and WUE affected, the yield in severe drought treatments was the most significant, B3C3 and B3C3G3 decreased by 55.68% and 55.88%, respectively. Pre-anthesis drought was the main reason for the decreased crop yield. Thus, severe drought should be avoided during planting, while pre-anthesis light drought is a suitable choice for water-saving and crop production, as proper pre-anthesis drought hardening (60–70% FC) is feasible and effective.     

Economic analysis of planting dates to manage European corn borer (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) with Bt corn

Planting dates of transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt) corn were adjusted to determine the utility in managing European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner). Transgenic Bt (events 176 and Bt11) corn and non-Bt corn were planted at three different times to use the early- and late- planted corn as a potential trap crop for ovipositing European corn borer moths. Grain moisture and yields were recorded to determine the economic benefits of Bt corn planted on the different dates, based on European corn borer populations and corn damage data collected before harvest. Data were recorded from three locations in southwestern, central, and northeastern Iowa for three summers (1996-1998). Economic benefits are discussed in relation to EILs and yield results. Adjusting the planting dates of Bt and non-Bt corn provided variable economic differences among planting dates in northern Iowa; however, greater economic benefits were realized when Bt corn was planted late during the planting sequence in central and southwestern Iowa. These results suggest that planting corn should be conducted in a timely manner and, if delayed or required to plant late, planting Bt corn would likely provide greater economic benefits. Although yield and economic variability were high, using Bt corn in combination with planting date adjustments may be a viable option for managing European corn borer.     

全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响

在比较系统总结全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业影响的主要研究成果的基础上,揭示了我国西北地区现代气候变化对全球气候变暖响应的基本特征,阐述了现代气候变化对土壤水分、地表蒸发和作物气候生产力的影响规律;并且比较全面地概括了西北地区冬、春小麦、玉米、马铃薯、冬油菜、棉花、胡麻、牧草、葡萄等9种主要农作物的生长发育、病虫害、种植面积、气候产量以及畜牧业活动等对气候变化的响应特征,发现气候变化对农业生产过程的影响利弊皆存,而且不同农作物对气候变化的响应特征差异较大.研究对西北地区农业生产具有比较重要的科学指导意见.     

The impact of wintering geese on crop yields in Bulgarian Dobrudzha: implications for agri-environment schemes

Wintering wildfowl are widely perceived to damage agricultural crops, resulting in economic losses and conflict between farmers and conservationists. However, examinations of the nature and extent of the damage show very variable outcomes, ranging from no detectable impact to yield losses exceeding 50%; this makes it hard to infer losses in unstudied systems. In Bulgarian Dobrudzha, a large wintering goose population almost exclusively consumes winter wheat, but the impact on wheat yields is poorly understood. We used crop exclosures and dropping counts to manipulate and measure goose grazing intensity, and estimated crop yield and its components (grain mass, grains per stem, stem density). Crop yield was 13.2% lower in unfenced control plots than in exclosures in one winter during which goose grazing intensity was high but mainly occurred relatively early in the season, but there was no effect of goose exclusion in an earlier winter when goose grazing intensity was relatively low but occurred late in the season. A negative relationship between grazing intensity and crop yield was found, mainly driven by a lower stem density in heavily grazed plots. We use this relationship to infer total yield loss and calculate the economic impact for the study area to be in the order of €15,000–100,000. However, the generality of these results remains unclear because the impact of a given grazing intensity appears likely to vary according to factors such as timing of grazing, weather, stage of crop development and soil conditions. We discuss the results in light of a new agri-environment scheme that has been launched in the area with the aim of securing appropriate forage conditions for wintering geese whilst compensating farmers for losses and reducing conflict.     

气候变化背景下东北三省主要粮食作物产量潜力及资源利用效率比较

以东北地区喜温作物和喜凉作物的潜在种植区为研究区域,基于研究区域内65个气象台站1961—2010年地面气象观测数据,结合作物生育期资料,应用作物产量潜力逐级订正法,分析不同作物各级产量潜力时空分布特征,明确作物各级产量潜力受气候资源限制程度,比较气候资源利用效率差异.结果表明： 1961—2010年,东北三省6种作物（玉米、水稻、春小麦、高粱、谷子和大豆）的光温产量潜力呈明显的西高东低的空间分布特征,作物气候产量潜力除春小麦外其他作物均呈现南高北低的空间分布规律.6种作物受温度限制的产量潜力损失率呈东高西低的空间分布特征,大豆受温度限制引起的产量潜力损失率最高,平均为51%,其他作物为33%～41%;因降水制约引起的潜力损失率分布有明显的区域性差异,在松嫩平原和长白山区各有一个高值区,春小麦因降水亏缺引起的产量潜力损失率最高,平均为50%,其他4种雨养作物集中在8%～10%.东北三省各作物生长季内光能利用效率在0.9%～2.7%,其中玉米>高粱>水稻>谷子>春小麦>大豆;雨养条件下,玉米、高粱、春小麦、谷子和大豆各作物的降水利用效率在8～35 kg·hm^-2·mm^-1,其中玉米>高粱>春小麦>谷子>大豆.在光能利用效率和降水利用效率均较低的长白山区和小兴安岭南部地区,可采取合理密植、选择适宜品种、适时施肥、蓄水保墒耕作以及优化作物布局等措施提高资源利用效率.     

区域种植业气候适宜度及其对种植活动的响应——以四川省盐亭县为例

在分析盐亭县近63年来(1950—2012)种植业生产发展的基础上,选取该县农村社会经济条件相对稳定的近32年(1981—2012)为研究时段。运用农业生态气候适宜度方法,依据水稻、红薯、玉米、小麦和油菜等5种主要作物生育期的光、热、水等气候条件,分别估算各种作物的资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数,构建小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度模型和种植活动对区域种植业气候适宜度的影响度模型,进行小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度以及种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度估算,并对种植业生产对气候变化的适应进行探讨。研究结果表明,(1)近32年来盐亭县大春作物的平均资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数(分别为0.578、0.281和48.37%)均大于小春作物(分别为0.304、0.128和42.24%),大春作物的气候适宜度高于小春作物,且作物间的气候适宜度差异较大。(2)受季风气候波动的影响,该县作物气候适宜度有明显的年际波动;该县近32年来气候变化对大春作物气候适宜度有轻微不利影响,而对小春作物气候适宜度趋于有利。(3)盐亭县近32年来种植业平均的资源适宜指数为0.466、效能适宜指数为0.212、利用指数为45.49%;受5种作物资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数,以及作物播种面积与产量年际波动的综合影响,该县种植业气候适宜度亦有明显的年际波动;气候变化对该县种植业气候适宜度总体上有不利影响。(4)近32年来该县种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度平均值为0.00092,其年际波动较大。通过作物种植组合结构的调整,在20世纪90年代中期前对种植业气候适宜度的提高有微弱的正向影响,对气候变化有一定程度的适应;而后期则有负向作用。     

Improving drought resistance in small-grained cereals: A case study, progress and prospects

Drought is a serious problem in many parts of the world where wheat, barley and other small-grained cereals are part of the staple diets. Even in parts of South-eastern Europe, seasonal rainfall for winter cereals has been falling gradually for many years. Thus, since 1981 across three sites in Yugoslavia (Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Zajear), rainfall fell from a mean of 511 mm for October to July in 1981--1982 to about 453 mm during the same period for the 1995--1996 season. Nevertheless, average wheat yields for new varieties in Yugoslav Commission trials during this period have shown a steady increase from 7.6 to 8.8 t ha^–1. This is due to increasing the yield potential of the new varieties, even in trials giving low average yields, caused largely by drought. Thus, breeders in Yugoslavia are succeeding in improving drought resistance in new wheat varieties. However, future progress in improving drought resistance may be helped by focusing on specific traits which will help to improve either crop water use, water-use efficiency or harvest index. Thus, for example, rapid early leaf area development not only improves subsequent crop growth rates, but increases competition with weeds for water and nutrients. The rate of leaf area development is closely associated with embryo size, so selection for large embryo size should improve early growth rates. Osmotic adjustment in wheat in response to drought appears to be important for maintaining yields, and selection for high osmotic adjustment has improved drought yields. Carbon 13 discrimination () is an integral measure of plant water-use efficiency. Selecting for low has also resulted in increased yield under drought conditions. Other constitutive and induced traits, such as phenology, leaf xeromorphy, excised-leaf water loss, rooting behaviour, senescence and stored assimilates are also discussed in relation to improving yields in small-grain crops. Opportunities for marker-assisted selection are also considered. Incorporating specific drought resistance traits in breeding programmes should facilitate more rapid improvement in the drought resistance of wheat and other small-grained cereals.     

Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns

Aim To assemble a data set of global crop planting and harvesting dates for 19 major crops, explore spatial relationships between planting date and climate for two of them, and compare our analysis with a review of the literature on factors that drive decisions on planting dates. Location Global. Methods We digitized and georeferenced existing data on crop planting and harvesting dates from six sources. We then examined relationships between planting dates and temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration using 30‐year average climatologies from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (CRU CL 2.0). Results We present global planting date patterns for maize, spring wheat and winter wheat (our full, publicly available data set contains planting and harvesting dates for 19 major crops). Maize planting in the northern mid‐latitudes generally occurs in April and May. Daily average air temperatures are usually c. 12–17 °C at the time of maize planting in these regions, although soil moisture often determines planting date more directly than does temperature. Maize planting dates vary more widely in tropical regions. Spring wheat is usually planted at cooler temperatures than maize, between c. 8 and 14 °C in temperate regions. Winter wheat is generally planted in September and October in the northern mid‐latitudes. Main conclusions In temperate regions, spatial patterns of maize and spring wheat planting dates can be predicted reasonably well by assuming a fixed temperature at planting. However, planting dates in lower latitudes and planting dates of winter wheat are more difficult to predict from climate alone. In part this is because planting dates may be chosen to ensure a favourable climate during a critical growth stage, such as flowering, rather than to ensure an optimal climate early in the crop's growth. The lack of predictability is also due to the pervasive influence of technological and socio‐economic factors on planting dates.     

基于WOFOST作物生长模型的冬小麦干旱影响评估技术

为了反映作物与干旱的相互关系,人为再现干旱灾害对作物产量的影响程度,选择华北地区冬小麦干旱灾害为研究对象,对作物生长模型WOFOST在区域上进行适应性进行分析、检验的基础上,然后利用区域作物模型实现干旱灾害对作物影响定量分析和动态评估。以减产率和气象条件作为灾害严重程度划分的标准,利用数值模拟试验,确定导致减产的主要气象因子及其量值,对研究区干旱灾害进行影响评估,包括典型灾害年份影响评估和年代际灾害影响评估,并给出了评估结果。     

Increasing temperature cuts back crop yields in Hungary over the last 90 years

The transformation of climatic regime has an undeniable impact on plant production, but we rarely have long enough date series to examine the unfolding of such effects. The clarification of the relationship between crop plants and climate has a near‐immediate importance due to the impending human‐made global change. This study investigated the relationship between temperature, precipitation, drought intensity and the yields of four major cereals in Hungary between 1921 and 2010. The analysis of 30‐year segments indicated a monotonously increasing negative impact of temperature on crop yields. A 1°C temperature increase reduced the yield of the four main cereals by 9.6%–14.8% in 1981–2010, which revealed the vulnerability of Eastern European crop farming to recent climate change. Climate accounted for 17%–39% of yield variability over the past 90 years, but this figure reached 33%–67% between 1981 and 2010. Our analysis supports the claim that the mid‐20th century green revolution improved yields “at the mercy of the weather”: during this period, the impact of increasing fertilization and mechanisation coincided with climatic conditions that were more favourable than today. Crop yields in Eastern Europe have been stagnating or decreasing since the mid‐1980s. Although usually attributed to the large socio‐economic changes sweeping the region, our analysis indicates that a warming climate is at least partially responsible for this trend. Such a robust impact of increasing temperatures on crop yields also constitutes an obvious warning for this core grain‐growing region of the world.     

Conservation agriculture for wheat-based cropping systems under gravity irrigation: increasing resilience through improved soil quality

A field experiment was conducted under furrow irrigation on a Vertisol in arid northwestern Mexico, to evaluate sustainable production alternatives for irrigated wheat systems. Treatments included: tillage (conventionally tilled raised beds where new beds are formed after disc ploughing before planting [CTB] and permanent raised beds [PB]) and irrigation regimes (full and reduced). Physical and chemical soil quality was compared among treatments. PB improved soil structure and direct infiltration, increased topsoil K concentrations (0–5 cm; 1.6 cmol kg^?1 in PB vs. 1.0–1.1 cmol kg^?1 in CTB) and reduced Na concentrations (0–5 cm; 1.3–1.4 cmol kg^?1 in PB vs. 1.9–2.2 cmol kg^?1 in CTB) compared to CTB. Crop growth dynamics were studied throughout the season with an optical handheld NDVI sensor. Crop growth was initially slower in PB compared to CTB, but this was compensated by increased crop growth in the later stages of the crop cycle which influenced final yield, especially under reduced irrigation. These results were reflected in the final grain yield: in the third year after conversion to PB, no difference in grain yield was found between tillage systems under full irrigation. However, under reduced irrigation the improved soil quality with PB resulted in a 19% and 26% increment in bread and durum wheat grain yields, respectively. As projected climatic scenarios forecast higher evapotranspiration, less reliable rainfall and increased drought, our results indicate that PB could contribute to maintaining and increasing wheat yields in a sustainable way.     

Fertilization regulates the response of wheat yield to interannual temperature variation in North China

Aims Understanding the effect of long-term fertilization on the sensitivity of grain yield to temperature changes is critical for accurately assessing the impact of global warming on crop production. In this study, we aim to assess the impacts of temperature changes on grain yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under different fertilization treatments in a long-term manipulative experiment in North China.Methods We measured grain yields of winter wheat under four fertilization treatments at the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station each year from 1993 to 2012. We also measured air temperature at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000h each day since 1 January 1980. We then used the first-difference method and simple linear regression models to examine the relationship of crop yield changes to mean air temperature, mean daytime and nighttime air temperature in crop growing seasons.Important findings We found that increases in mean daily temperature, mean daytime temperature and mean nighttime temperature each had a positive impact on the grain yield of winter wheat. Grain yield increased by 16.7–85.6% for winter wheat in response to a 1°C increase in growing season mean daily temperature. Winter wheat yield was more sensitive to variations of nighttime temperature than to that of daytime temperature. The observed temperature impacts also varied across different fertilization treatments. Balanced fertilization significantly enhanced grain yields for winter wheat under a warming climate. Wheat plots treated with nitrogen and phosphorous balanced fertilization (NPK- and NP-treated plots) were more responsive to temperature changes than those without. This report provides direct evidence of how temperature change impacts grain yields under different fertilization treatments, which is useful for crop management in a changing global climate.     

Effects of precipitation and temperature on crop production variability in northeast Iran

Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming planning, mostly under rainfed conditions, across the world. Considering the recent advances in climate science, many studies are trying to provide a reliable basis for climate, and subsequently agricultural production, forecasts. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) is one of the principle sources of interannual climatic variability. In Iran, primarily in the northeast, rainfed cereal yield shows a high annual variability. This study investigated the role played by precipitation, temperature and three climate indices [Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NINO 3.4] in historically observed rainfed crop yields (1983–2005) of both barley and wheat in the northeast of Iran. The results revealed differences in the association between crop yield and climatic factors at different locations. The south of the study area is a very hot location, and the maximum temperature proved to be the limiting and determining factor for crop yields; temperature variability resulted in crop yield variability. For the north of the study area, NINO 3.4 exhibited a clear association trend with crop yields. In central locations, NAO provided a solid basis for the relationship between crop yields and climate factors.     

Recent biometeorological applications to crops

The paper demonstrates how standard climatological data can effectively be exploited by making use of biometeorological knowledge and modern data processing facilities in studies concerned with the evaluation of crop-weather relationships and the analysis of climatic resources. In analyzing potential biological yield of wheat at Normandin (Quebec), it was found that the potential yield was reduced by approximately 45% because of variations in temperature and radiation whereas the actual yield was reduced by 70%. In mesoscale analyses, the error between soil moisture observations and estimates from a climatological soil moisture budget was in the same order as the standard deviation of 3-times replicated 38 soil moisture samples taken over five years at Swift Current (Sask.). An analysis of crop-weather relationships at Lacombe (Alta.) indicated that the 1957 wheat yield was reduced from the potential 3,300 kg/ha to 2,004 kg/ha or by 40% because of a severe cold spell during the soft dough developing stage resulting in improper filling of the kernels. In macroscale analyses, relative winter hardiness indices for woody ornamental plants together with site suitability indices for winter survival were used in the development of a map of plant hardiness zones in Canada. In the application of this research to forage crops average winter survival percentage of legumes and grasses by classes of hardiness together with selected regional climatic averages were developed for six regions of southern Canada. Long-term research into the relationships between Canadian Prairie crop yields and development (wheat, oats and barley) and selected climatic and soil variables has been used successfully for estimating regional crop production, for determining climatic limitations of the area suitable for the cultivation of these crops, and for assessing the impact of postulated climatic changes on crop production.Contribution No 862 of the Chemistry and Biology Research Institute.     

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10 degrees N-17 degrees N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel-Guillot-Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10-50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level.     

Response of Spring Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Quality Traits and Yield to Sowing Date

The unpredictability and large fluctuation of the climatic conditions in rainfed regions do affect spring wheat yield and grain quality. These variations offer the opportunity for the production of better quality wheat. The effect of variable years, locations and sowing managements on wheat grain yield and quality was studied through field experiments using three genotypes, three locations for two years under rainfed conditions. The two studied years as contrasting years at three locations and sowing dates depicted variability in temperature and water stress during grain filling which resulted considerable change in grain yield and quality. Delayed sowing, years (2009–10) and location (Talagang) with high temperature and water stress resulted increased proline, and grain quality traits i.e. grain protein (GP) and grain ash (GA) than optimum conditions (during 2008–09, at Islamabad and early sowing). However, opposite trend was observed for dry gluten (DG), sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS), SPAD content and grain yield irrespective of genotypes. The influence of variable climatic conditions was dominant in determining the quality traits and inverse relationship was observed among some quality traits and grain yield. It may be concluded that by selecting suitable locations and different sowing managements for subjecting the crop to desirable environmental conditions (temperature and water) quality traits of wheat crop could be modified.     

Narrow rows reduce biomass and seed production of weeds and increase maize yield

Smallholder farmers in southern African countries rely primarily on cultural control and hoe weeding to combat weeds, but often times, they are unable to keep up with the weeding requirements of the crop because of its laboriousness, causing them to incur major yield losses. Optimisation of crop planting pattern could help to increase yield and suppress weeds and to reduce the critical period of weed control and the weeding requirements to attain maximum yield. Experiments were carried out in Zimbabwe during two growing seasons to assess the effect of maize density and spatial arrangement on crop yield, growth and seed production of weeds and to determine the critical period for weeding. Planting maize at 60 cm row distance achieved higher yields and better weed suppression than planting at 75 or 90 cm row distance. Increasing crop densities beyond the customary three to four plants m⁻² gave modest reductions in weed biomass but also diminished crop yields, probably because of increased competition for water and nutrient resources. Maize planted in narrow rows (60 cm) intercepted more radiation and suffered less yield reduction from delaying hoe weeding than those planted in wider rows (75 or 90 cm), and the duration of the weed-free period required to attain maximum grain yield was 3 weeks shorter in the narrow spacing than that in the 75- and 90-cm row spacings. Weeding was more effective in curtailing weed seed production in the narrow row spatial arrangements than in the wide row planting. The results of these studies show that narrow row spacings may reduce weeding requirements and increase yields.