Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call “fixation of the innovation.” Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution—for example, of handaxe measurements—is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.     

Variable cultural acquisition costs constrain cumulative cultural evolution

One of the hallmarks of the human species is our capacity for cumulative culture, in which beneficial knowledge and technology is accumulated over successive generations. Yet previous analyses of cumulative cultural change have failed to consider the possibility that as cultural complexity accumulates, it becomes increasingly costly for each new generation to acquire from the previous generation. In principle this may result in an upper limit on the cultural complexity that can be accumulated, at which point accumulated knowledge is so costly and time-consuming to acquire that further innovation is not possible. In this paper I first review existing empirical analyses of the history of science and technology that support the possibility that cultural acquisition costs may constrain cumulative cultural evolution. I then present macroscopic and individual-based models of cumulative cultural evolution that explore the consequences of this assumption of variable cultural acquisition costs, showing that making acquisition costs vary with cultural complexity causes the latter to reach an upper limit above which no further innovation can occur. These models further explore the consequences of different cultural transmission rules (directly biased, indirectly biased and unbiased transmission), population size, and cultural innovations that themselves reduce innovation or acquisition costs.     

The swashbuckling anthropologist: Henrich on The Secret of Our Success

In The Secret of Our Success, Joseph Henrich claims that human beings are unique—different from all other animals—because we engage in cumulative cultural evolution. It is the technological and social products of cumulative cultural evolution, not the intrinsic rationality or ‘smartness’ of individual humans, that enable us to live in a huge range of different habitats, and to dominate most of the creatures who share those habitats with us. We are sympathetic to this general view, the latest expression of the ‘California school’s’ view of cultural evolution, and impressed by the lively and interesting way that Henrich handles evidence from anthropology, economics, and many fields of biology. However, because we think it is time for cultural evolutionists to get down to details, this essay review raises questions about Henrich’s analysis of both the cognitive processes and the selection processes that contribute to cumulative cultural evolution. In the former case, we argue that cultural evolutionists need to make more extensive use of cognitive science, and to consider the evidence that mechanisms of cultural learning are products as well as processes of cultural evolution. In the latter case, we ask whether the California school is really serious about selection, or whether it is offering a merely ‘kinetic’ view of cultural evolution, and, assuming the former, outline four potential models of cultural selection that it would be helpful to distinguish more clearly.     

High Selection Pressure Promotes Increase in Cumulative Adaptive Culture

The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.     

A two level mutation-selection model of cultural evolution and diversity

Cultural evolution is a complex process that can happen at several levels. At the level of individuals in a population, each human bears a set of cultural traits that he or she can transmit to its offspring (vertical transmission) or to other members of his or her society (horizontal transmission). The relative frequency of a cultural trait in a population or society can thus increase or decrease with the relative reproductive success of its bearers (individual’s level) or the relative success of transmission (called the idea’s level). This article presents a mathematical model on the interplay between these two levels. The first aim of this article is to explore when cultural evolution is driven by the idea’s level, when it is driven by the individual’s level and when it is driven by both. These three possibilities are explored in relation to (a) the amount of interchange of cultural traits between individuals, (b) the selective pressure acting on individuals, (c) the rate of production of new cultural traits, (d) the individual’s capacity to remember cultural traits and to the population size. The aim is to explore the conditions in which cultural evolution does not lead to a better adaptation of individuals to the environment. This is to contrast the spread of fitness-enhancing ideas, which make individual bearers better adapted to the environment, to the spread of “selfish” ideas, which spread well simply because they are easy to remember but do not help their individual bearers (and may even hurt them). At the same time this article explores in which conditions the adaptation of individuals is maximal. The second aim is to explore how these factors affect cultural diversity, or the amount of different cultural traits in a population. This study suggests that a larger interchange of cultural traits between populations could lead to cultural evolution not improving the adaptation of individuals to their environment and to a decrease of cultural diversity.     

GENETIC DIVERSITY IN THE MATRILINEAL WHALES: MODELS OF CULTURAL HITCHHIKING AND GROUP-SPECIFIC NON-HERITABLE DEMOGRAPHIC VARIATION

Cultural hitchhiking is the process by which cultural selection reduces the diversity of genes that are being transmitted in parallel to selective cultural traits. I use simulation models to investigate cultural hitchhiking in geographically unstructured populations of culturally homogeneous tribes. Substantial reduction of genetic diversity required: a reasonably low mutation rate; that tribes split fairly frequently when they constitute a substantial part of the population; a fairly low migration rate (<∼10 migrants per tribe per generation); only a low rate of cultural evolution (mean culturally determined fitness change >∼0.005%/ generation); and that cultural assimilation from other tribes change the fitness of a tribe less than cultural innovation within it. Cultural hitchhiking tends to increase mean tribe size. Measures of genetic and cultural variation among tribes poorly indicate past cultural hitchhiking. Demographic effects, in which tribal fitness varies but is not heritable, can also reduce a population's genetic diversity if the fitness varies very considerably, or tribal extirpation is added. In such cases populations frequently become extinct. Four species of matrilineal whales have remarkably low mitochondrial DNA diversity. Knowledge of the population and social structure of these species is consistent with the conditions for cultural hitchhiking. However, there remain important information gaps.     

Reasons to be fussy about cultural evolution

This discussion paper responds to two recent articles in Biology and Philosophy that raise similar objections to cultural attraction theory, a research trend in cultural evolution putting special emphasis on the fact that human minds create and transform their culture. Both papers are sympathetic to this idea, yet both also regret a lack of consilience with Boyd, Richerson and Henrich’s models of cultural evolution. I explain why cultural attraction theorists propose a different view on three points of concern for our critics. I start by detailing the claim that cultural transmission relies not chiefly on imitation or teaching, but on cognitive mechanisms like argumentation, ostensive communication, or selective trust, whose evolved or habitual function may not be the faithful reproduction of ideas or behaviours. Second, I explain why the distinction between context biases and content biases might not always be the best way to capture the interactions between culture and cognition. Lastly, I show that cultural attraction models cannot be reduced to a model of guided variation, which posits a clear separation between individual and social learning processes. With cultural attraction, the same cognitive mechanisms underlie both innovation and the preservation of traditions.     

Coexistence of individual and social learners during range expansion

Individual learning and social learning are two primary abilities supporting cultural evolution. Conditions for their evolution have mostly been studied by investigating gene frequency dynamics, which essentially implies constant population size. Predictions from such “static” models may only be of partial relevance to the evolution of advanced individual learning in modern humans, because modern humans have experienced rapid population growth and range expansion during “out-of-Africa.” Here we model the spatial population dynamics of individual and social learners by a reaction–diffusion system. One feature of our model is the inclusion of the possibility that social learners may fail to find an exemplar to copy in regions where the population density is low. Due to this attenuation effect, the invasion speed of social learners is diminished, and various kinds of invasion dynamics are observed. Our primary findings are: (1) individual learners can persist indefinitely when invading environmentally homogeneous infinite space; (2) the occurrence of individual learners at the front may inhibit the spread of social learners. These results suggest that “out-of-Africa” may have driven the evolution of advanced individual learning ability in modern humans.     

Sociality influences cultural complexity

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population''s size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution.     

Cost–benefit analysis of social/cultural learning in a nonstationary uncertain environment: An evolutionary simulation and an experiment with human subjects

Social/cultural learning is an effective way to reduce uncertainty about the environment, helping individuals adopt an adaptive behavior cheaply. Although this is evident for learning about temporally stable targets, such as acquisition of a skill in avoiding toxic foods, the utility of social/cultural learning in a temporally unstable environment is less clear, since knowledge acquired by social learning may be outdated. This paper addresses the adaptive value of social/cultural learning in a nonstationary environment both theoretically and empirically. We first conducted an evolutionary computer simulation that extended Henrich and Boyd's [Evol. Hum. Behav. 19 (1998) 215.] model of cultural transmission, with the following results. When individual learning about the nonstationary environment is costly, a mixed equilibrium emerges in the population, where members who engage in costly individual learning and members who skip the information search and free-ride on other members' search efforts coexist at a stable ratio. Such a “producer–scrounger” structure qualifies effectiveness of social/cultural learning severely, especially “conformity bias” when using social information. We then tested these propositions by an experiment implementing a nonstationary uncertain environment in a laboratory. The results supported our thesis. Implications of these findings and some future directions are discussed.     

Endless forms: human behavioural diversity and evolved universals

Human populations have extraordinary capabilities for generating behavioural diversity without corresponding genetic diversity or change. These capabilities and their consequences can be grouped into three categories: strategic (or cognitive), ecological and cultural-evolutionary. Strategic aspects include: (i) a propensity to employ complex conditional strategies, some certainly genetically evolved but others owing to directed invention or to cultural evolution; (ii) situations in which fitness payoffs (or utilities) are frequency-dependent, so that there is no one best strategy; and (iii) the prevalence of multiple equilibria, with history or minor variations in starting conditions (path dependence) playing a crucial role. Ecological aspects refer to the fact that social behaviour and cultural institutions evolve in diverse niches, producing various adaptive radiations and local adaptations. Although environmental change can drive behavioural change, in humans, it is common for behavioural change (especially technological innovation) to drive environmental change (i.e. niche construction). Evolutionary aspects refer to the fact that human capacities for innovation and cultural transmission lead to diversification and cumulative cultural evolution; critical here is institutional design, in which relatively small shifts in incentive structure can produce very different aggregate outcomes. In effect, institutional design can reshape strategic games, bringing us full circle.     

Review. Studying cumulative cultural evolution in the laboratory

Cumulative cultural evolution is the term given to a particular kind of social learning, which allows for the accumulation of modifications over time, involving a ratchet-like effect where successful modifications are maintained until they can be improved upon. There has been great interest in the topic of cumulative cultural evolution from researchers from a wide variety of disciplines, but until recently there were no experimental studies of this phenomenon. Here, we describe our motivations for developing experimental methods for studying cumulative cultural evolution and review the results we have obtained using these techniques. The results that we describe have provided insights into understanding the outcomes of cultural processes at the population level. Our experiments show that cumulative cultural evolution can result in adaptive complexity in behaviour and can also produce convergence in behaviour. These findings lend support to ideas that some behaviours commonly attributed to natural selection and innate tendencies could in fact be shaped by cultural processes.     

Population thinking and natural selection in dual-inheritance theory

A deflationary perspective on theories of cultural evolution, in particular dual-inheritance theory, has recently been proposed by Lewens. On this ‘pop-culture’ analysis, dual-inheritance theorists apply population thinking to cultural phenomena, without claiming that cultural items evolve by natural selection. This paper argues against this pop-culture analysis of dual-inheritance theory. First, it focuses on recent dual-inheritance models of specific patterns of cultural change. These models exemplify population thinking without a commitment to natural selection of cultural items. There are grounds, however, for doubting the added explanatory value of the models in their disciplinary context—and thus grounds for engaging in other potentially explanatory projects based on dual-inheritance theory. One such project is suggested by advocates of the theory. Some of the motivational narratives that they offer can be interpreted as setting up an adaptationist project with regard to cumulative change in cultural items. We develop this interpretation here. On it, dual-inheritance theory features two interrelated selection processes, one on the level of genetically inherited learning mechanisms, another on the level of the cultural items transmitted through these mechanisms. This interpretation identifies a need for further modelling efforts, but also offers scope for enhancing the explanatory power of dual-inheritance theory.     

Regular rates of popular culture change reflect random copying

Almost by definition, “popular culture” reflects the effects of most people imitating those around them. At the same time, trends and fashions are constantly changing, with future outcomes potentially irrational and nearly impossible to predict. A simple null model, which captures these seemingly conflicting tendencies of conformity and change, involves the random copying of cultural variants between individuals, with occasional innovation. Here, we show that the random-copying model predicts a continual flux of initially obscure new ideas (analogous to mutations) becoming highly popular by chance alone, such that the turnover rate on a list of most popular variants depends on the list size and the amount of innovation but not on population size. We also present evidence for remarkably regular turnover on “pop charts”—including the most popular music, first names, and dog breeds in 20th-century United States—which fits this expectation. By predicting parametric effects on the turnover of popular fashion, the random-copying model provides an additional means of characterizing collective copying behavior in culture evolution.     

Five Misunderstandings About Cultural Evolution

Recent debates about memetics have revealed some widespread misunderstandings about Darwinian approaches to cultural evolution. Drawing from these debates, this paper disputes five common claims: (1) mental representations are rarely discrete, and therefore models that assume discrete, gene-like particles (i.e., replicators) are useless; (2) replicators are necessary for cumulative, adaptive evolution; (3) content-dependent psychological biases are the only important processes that affect the spread of cultural representations; (4) the “cultural fitness” of a mental representation can be inferred from its successful transmission; and (5) selective forces only matter if the sources of variation are random. We close by sketching the outlines of a unified evolutionary science of culture.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady‐state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.     

Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen''s hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model''s fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21^st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation''s embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks.     

An experimental demonstration of the effect of group size on cultural accumulation

Cumulative culture is thought to have played a major role in hominin evolution, and so an understanding of the factors that affect cultural accumulation is important for understanding human evolution. Population size may be one such factor, with larger populations thought to be able to support more complex cultural traits. This hypothesis has been suggested by mathematical models and empirical studies of small-scale societies. However, to date there have been few experimental demonstrations of an effect of population size on cultural accumulation. Here we provide such a demonstration using a novel task, solving jigsaw puzzles. 80 participants divided into ten transmission chains solved puzzles in one of two conditions: one in which participants had access to one semi-completed puzzle from the previous generation, and the other in which participants simultaneously saw three semi-completed puzzles from the previous generation. As predicted, the mean number of pieces solved increased over time in the three-puzzle-per-generation condition, but not in the one-puzzle-per-generation condition. Thus, our experiment provides support for a hypothesized relationship between population size and cultural accumulation. In particular, our results suggest that the ability to simultaneously learn from multiple cultural models, and combine the knowledge of those multiple models, is most likely to allow larger groups to support more complex culture.     

Cross-generational environmental effects and the evolution of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy Poecilia reticulata

Abstract The existence of adaptive phenotypic plasticity demands that we study the evolution of reaction norms, rather than just the evolution of fixed traits. This approach requires the examination of functional relationships among traits not only in a single environment but across environments and between traits and plasticity itself. In this study, I examined the interplay of plasticity and local adaptation of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata. Guppies respond to food restriction by growing and reproducing less but also by producing larger offspring. This plastic difference in offspring size is of the same order of magnitude as evolved genetic differences among populations. Larger offspring sizes are thought to have evolved as an adaptation to the competitive environment faced by newborn guppies in some environments. If plastic responses to maternal food limitation can achieve the same fitness benefit, then why has guppy offspring size evolved at all? To explore this question, I examined the plastic response to food level of females from two natural populations that experience different selective environments. My goals were to examine whether the plastic responses to food level varied between populations, test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, and assess whether costs of plasticity exist that could account for the evolution of mean offspring size across populations. In each population, full‐sib sisters were exposed to either a low‐ or high‐food treatment. Females from both populations produced larger, leaner offspring in response to food limitation. However, the population that was thought to have a history of selection for larger offspring was less plastic in its investment per offspring in response to maternal mass, maternal food level, and fecundity than the population under selection for small offspring size. To test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, I raised the offspring of low‐ and high‐food mothers in either low‐ or high‐food environments. No maternal effects were detected at high food levels, supporting the prediction that mothers should increase fecundity rather than offspring size in noncompetitive environments. For offspring raised under low food levels, maternal effects on juvenile size and male size at maturity varied significantly between populations, reflecting their initial differences in maternal manipulation of offspring size; nevertheless, in both populations, increased investment per offspring increased offspring fitness. Several correlates of plasticity in investment per offspring that could affect the evolution of offspring size in guppies were identified. Under low‐food conditions, mothers from more plastic families invested more in future reproduction and less in their own soma. Similarly, offspring from more plastic families were smaller as juveniles and female offspring reproduced earlier. These correlations suggest that a fixed, high level of investment per offspring might be favored over a plastic response in a chronically low‐resource environment or in an environment that selects for lower reproductive effort     

Song learning as an indicator mechanism: modelling the developmental stress hypothesis

The ‘developmental stress hypothesis’ attempts to provide a functional explanation of the evolutionary maintenance of song learning in songbirds. It argues that song learning can be viewed as an indicator mechanism that allows females to use learned features of song as a window on a male's early development, a potentially stressful period that may have long-term phenotypic effects. In this paper we formally model this hypothesis for the first time, presenting a population genetic model that takes into account both the evolution of genetic learning preferences and cultural transmission of song. The models demonstrate that a preference for song types that reveal developmental stress can evolve in a population, and that cultural transmission of these song types can be stable, lending more support to the hypothesis.