Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups.     

Lagged Effect of Diurnal Temperature Range on Mortality in a Subtropical Megacity of China

Background

Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association.

Objectives

To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect.

Methods

The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD)) in the full year, the cold season and the warm season.

Results

A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days), and then decreased.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.     

Effect of diurnal temperature range on cardiovascular markers in the elderly in Seoul, Korea

While diurnal temperature range (DTR) has been found to be a risk factor for mortality, evaluation of the underlying mechanisms involved in this association are lacking. To explain the association between DTR and health effects, we investigated how cardiovascular markers responded to DTR. Data was obtained from 560 participants who regularly attended a community elderly welfare center located in Seoul, Korea. Data collection was conducted a total of five times over a 3-year period beginning in August, 2008. We examined systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and heart rate variability (HRV). Mixed-effects models and generalized additive mixed models were used to assess the relationship of DTR with BP, HR, and HRV. BP was not associated significantly with rapid temperature changes during the day. While HR was associated linearly with increments of DTR, the relationship between DTR and HRV showed nonlinear associations, or the presence of a cutoff around median DTR. At the cutoff level of DTR determined by an inflection point in the graph, standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root mean square successive difference (RMSSD) were peaked, whereas the low frequency:high frequency (LF:HF) ratio was elevated with decreasing DTR below the cutoff level. The study demonstrated that HR increases with increasing temperature range during the day, and that HRV is reduced at small or large DTR, which suggests minimal cardiovascular stress around the median level of temperature range during the day.     

Diurnal temperature range and mortality in Urmia,the Northwest of Iran

Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is a meteorological index which represents temperature variation within a day. This study assesses the impact of high and low values of DTR on mortality. Distributed Lag Non-linear Models combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the impact of DTR on cause, age and gender specific mortality, controlled for potential confounders such as long-term trend of daily mortality, day of week effect, holidays, mean temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pollutants. As the effect of DTR may vary between the hot season (from May to October) and cold season (from November to April of the next year), we conducted analyses separately for these two seasons. In high DTR values (all percentiles), the Cumulative Relative Risk (CRR) of Non-Accidental Death, Respiratory Death and Cardiovascular Death increased in the full year and hot season, and especially in lag (0−6) of the hot season. In the cold season and high DTR values (all percentiles), the CRR of Non-Accidental Death and Cardiovascular Death decreased, but the CRR of Respiratory Death increased. Although there was no clear significant effect in low DTR values. High values of DTR increase the risk of mortality, especially in the heat season, in Urmia, Iran.     

The combined effect of individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status on cancer survival rates

Background

This population-based study investigated the relationship between individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality rates for major cancers in Taiwan.

Methods

A population-based follow-up study was conducted with 20,488 cancer patients diagnosed in 2002. Each patient was traced to death or for 5 years. The individual income-related insurance payment amount was used as a proxy measure of individual SES for patients. Neighborhood SES was defined by income, and neighborhoods were grouped as living in advantaged or disadvantaged areas. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the death-free survival rates between the different SES groups after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors.

Results

After adjusting for patient characteristics (age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, urbanization, and area of residence), tumor extent, treatment modalities (operation and adjuvant therapy), and hospital characteristics (ownership and teaching level), colorectal cancer, and head and neck cancer patients under 65 years old with low individual SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods conferred a 1.5 to 2-fold higher risk of mortality, compared with patients with high individual SES in advantaged neighborhoods. A cross-level interaction effect was found in lung cancer and breast cancer. Lung cancer and breast cancer patients less than 65 years old with low SES in advantaged neighborhoods carried the highest risk of mortality. Prostate cancer patients aged 65 and above with low SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods incurred the highest risk of mortality. There was no association between SES and mortality for cervical cancer and pancreatic cancer.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that cancer patients with low individual SES have the highest risk of mortality even under a universal health-care system. Public health strategies and welfare policies must continue to focus on this vulnerable group.     

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality? Assessment of daily data of the Helsinki metropolitan area from 1973 to 2010

Several studies show a peak in suicide rates during springtime and suggest differences in the seasonal variation of suicides. However, the seasonal distribution of the temperature impact on suicide is less clear. This study investigated the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) on suicide mortality. Daily temperature and suicide data for Helsinki were analyzed for the period of 1973–2010 inclusive. Overall, DTR reached its maximum during the spring from mid-April to mid-June, which is also the season with highest suicide mortality in the study region. Specifically, the seasonal timing and maxima for both DTR and suicides vary from year to year. Time series analysis of DTR and suicide records revealed a significant (P?<?0.01) correlation between the springtime DTR maxima and suicide rates for males. No similar association could be found for females. These results provide evidence that a higher springtime DTR could be linked statistically to a higher seasonal suicide rate each spring, whereas the exact timing of the DTR peak did not associate with the seasonal suicide rate. A possible mechanism behind the springtime association between the DTR and suicides originates from brown adipose tissue (BAT) over-activity. Activation of BAT through the winter improves cold tolerance at the cost of heat tolerance. This might trigger anxiety and psychomotor agitation, affecting mood in a negative way. As a hypothesis, the compromised heat tolerance is suggested to increase the risk of death from suicide.     

Diurnal temperature range and emergency room admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Taiwan

The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and emergency room (ER) admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in an ER in Taichung City, Taiwan. The design was a longitudinal study in which DTR was related to COPD admissions to the ER of the city’s largest hospital. Daily ER admissions for COPD and ambient temperature were collected from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2002. There was a significant negative association between the average daily temperature and ER admissions for COPD (r =  −0.95). However, a significant positive association between DTR and COPD admissions was found (r = 0.90). Using the Poisson regression model after adjusting for the effects of air pollutants and the day of the week, COPD admissions to the ER increased by 14% when DTR was over 9.6°C. COPD patients must be made aware of the increased risk posed by large DTR. Hospitals and ERs should take into account the increased demand of specific facilities during periods of large temperature variations.     

Variation in mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in relation to high temperature

Outdoor temperature has been reported to have a significant influence on the seasonal variations of stroke mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of high temperature on the mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The main study goal was to examine the effect of temperature, particularly high temperature, on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. We investigated the association between outdoor temperature and stroke mortality in four metropolitan cities in Korea during 1992–2007. We used time series analysis of the age-adjusted mortality rate for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke deaths by using generalized additive and generalized linear models, and estimated the percentage change of mortality rate associated with a 1°C increase of mean temperature. The temperature-responses for the hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality differed, particularly in the range of high temperature. The estimated percentage change of ischemic stroke mortality above a threshold temperature was 5.4 % (95 % CI, 3.9–6.9 %) in Seoul, 4.1 % (95 % CI, 1.6–6.6 %) in Incheon, 2.3 % (?0.2 to 5.0 %) in Daegu and 3.6 % (0.7–6.6 %) in Busan, after controlling for daily mean humidity, mean air pressure, day of the week, season, and year. Additional adjustment of air pollution concentrations in the model did not change the effects. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing temperature without a threshold in the four cities after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that the mortality of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes show different patterns in relation to outdoor temperature. High temperature was harmful for ischemic stroke but not for hemorrhagic stroke. The risk of high temperature to ischemic stroke did not differ by age or gender.     

SEASONAL CHANGES IN SIZE STRUCTURE OF SARGASSUM AND TURBINARIA POPULATIONS (PHAEOPHYCEAE) ON TROPICAL REEF FLATS IN THE SOUTHERN RED SEA1

Seasonal variation in density, thallus length and biomass, population size structure, and allometric length‐biomass relationships was investigated in populations of Sargassum ilicifolium (Turner) C. Agardh, Sargassum subrepandum (Forssk.) C. Agardh, and Turbinaria triquetra (J. Agardh) Kütz. (Phaeophyceae) on shallow reef flats in the southern Red Sea. Thallus length and biomass varied strongly with season, with the highest values occurring in the cooler months. Thallus densities showed no significant temporal variation. Log‐total biomass versus log‐density relationships were positive throughout the growth season without any decrease in the slope of the relationship. In two populations, biomass‐density combinations approached the interspecific biomass‐density line, but the massive annual shedding of modules occurred before self‐thinning would set in. Allometric length‐biomass relationships varied with season in all populations and were associated with seasonal module initiation, growth, and shedding. Evidence of a strong asymmetric competition was found in two high‐density populations. These populations showed a predominance of small thalli during peak development, asymmetrical Lorenz curves, increasing Gini coefficients, and increasing thallus length relative to biomass during the main growth phase. In two other less crowded populations, small thalli were absent during peak development, Lorenz curves were symmetrical, and Gini coefficients decreased during the main growth phase. In these populations, size equalization appears to be due to responses at the modular level rather than size‐dependent mortality. We conclude that changes in size structure in this highly seasonal environment are determined by module dynamics, modified by asymmetric competition in some populations, with a minor role of recruitment and no regulatory effect of self‐thinning.     

Assessing the short‐term effects of capture,handling and tagging of sandgrouse

Capturing and marking free‐living birds permits the study of important aspects of their biology but may have undesirable effects. Bird welfare should be a primary concern, so it is necessary to evaluate and minimize any adverse effects of procedures used. We assess short‐term effects associated with the capture, handling and tagging with backpack‐mounted transmitters of Pin‐tailed Pterocles alchata and Black‐bellied Pterocles orientalis Sandgrouse, steppe birds of conservation concern. There was a significantly higher mortality (15%) during the first week after capture than during the following weeks (< 2.5%) in Pin‐tailed Sandgrouse, but no significant temporal mortality pattern in Black‐bellied Sandgrouse. In Pin‐tailed Sandgrouse, mortality rate during the first week increased with increasing relative transmitter and harness weight regardless of season, and with increasing handling time during the breeding season. There were no significant differences in mortality rate between study areas, type of tag, sex or age or an effect of restraint time. These results suggest the use of lighter transmitters (< 3% of the bird's weight) and a reduction of handling time (< 20 min), particularly during the breeding season, as essential improvements in procedure to reduce the mortality risk associated with the capture, handling and tagging of these vulnerable species.     

Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia

In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population’s ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.     

Food limitation and demography of a migratory antelope,the white-eared kob

Summary Although it is commonly presumed that many populations of large-herbivores are limited by food availability, supporting evidence is scarce. This hypothesis was investigated in a population of over 800,000 white-eared kob in the Boma National Park region of the southern Sudan. Food availability, body condition, and mortality rates of adults and calves were measured during the dry seasons of 1982 and 1983. Sampled age distributions from both the live population and carcasses were used to calculate age-specific rates of mortality. In 1982, food supplies during the dry season were augmented by substantial rainfall, which produced regrowth of grass in areas that ordinarily had little green forage. As a result, fat reserves declined little, and rates of adult mortality showed no increasing trend. Total adult mortality was 5%. In 1983, there was no rainfall during the dry season and food intake was insufficient to meet the estimated energy requirements of kob. As a result, fat reserves declined and adult mortality rates increased fourfold. Total adult mortality was 10% (equivalent to the recruitment rate of yearling into the population). Calf mortality during the dry season was similar in both years (50%), based on field estimates of mortality rates and calf/female ratios. Lactation throughout the dry season possibly provided a buffer for calves against variations in food availability. The age structure of the live population in 1983 suggests that a drought in 1980 reduced kob numbers by 40%. These results suggest that adult survival is influenced strongly by the availability of food during the dry season. However, the duration of the dry season also plays an important role. During the dry season, declining fat reserves make an increasing proportion of the population vulnerable to mortality. As a result, even moderate droughts may lead to substantial changes in population numbers.     

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality

Background

Ambient ozone (O₃) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial.

Objectives

The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O₃ concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009.

Methods

We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM₁₀, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O₃ concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model.

Results

The mean O₃ concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O₃ concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb.

Conclusion

We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O₃ concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.     

Interference competition between coyotes and raccoons: a test of the mesopredator release hypothesis

Some predator species appear to conform to the mesopredatorrelease hypothesis (MRH), in which larger predators help limitpopulations of smaller predators. This hypothesis has been usedto explain the possible relationship between coyotes, mesopredators,and resultant cascades involving nonpredators. However, relationshipsbetween coyotes and noncanid mesopredators are poorly understood,and predictions from the MRH have rarely been rigorously tested.We monitored sympatric raccoon and coyote populations to assess2 predictions derived from the MRH: coyote predation is an importantcause of mortality in raccoon populations or raccoons avoidareas used by coyotes. Between March 2000 and September 2001,we recorded 3553 locations for 27 radio-collared raccoons and1393 locations for 13 coyotes captured on the Max McGraw WildlifeFoundation in Illinois, USA. No raccoon mortality from coyotepredation was observed during the study, and raccoon survivalwas >0.7 each season. All raccoon 95% home ranges exhibitedoverlap with 95% coyote home ranges in each season. The meanproportion of raccoon locations within 95% coyote home rangesdid not vary by sex but did vary by season. Raccoon overlapof coyote core areas varied considerably among individuals withinseasons, ranging from 0% to 83%. However, 45% of raccoons had<10% overlap with coyote core areas, whereas only 14% ofraccoons exhibited >50% overlap. Mean overlap with core areasdid not vary by season or sex. For those raccoons with homeranges overlapping coyote core areas, mean proportion of observedraccoon locations within coyote core areas was generally greaterthan the mean proportion of random locations. Scent-stationexperiments failed to document raccoon avoidance of specificsites that had been marked with coyote urine. We did not findsupport for a mortality prediction or avoidance prediction tosupport MRH with regard to raccoons and coyotes. These resultssuggest that relationships among mammalian predators may notbe simply dictated by body size, particularly for species outsidethe Canidae.     

On the association between daily mortality and air mass types in Athens,Greece during winter and summer

In this study, we examined the short-term effects of air mass types on mortality in Athens, Greece. An objective air mass types classification was used, based on meteorological parameters measured at the surface. Mortality data were treated with generalized additive models (GAM) and extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns, adjusting also for temperature, long-term trends, day of the week, and ambient particle concentrations. The introduced air mass classification explains the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southerly flow conditions for both the cold (increase in relative risk for mortality 9%; with a 95% confidence interval: 3-14%), and the warm period (7%; with a 95% confidence interval: 2-13%) of the year. The northeasterly flow is associated with the lowest mortality. Effects on mortality, independent of temperature, are observed mainly for lag 0 during the cold period, but persist longer during the warm period. Not adjusting for temperature and/or ambient particle levels slightly alters the results, which then reflect the known temperature and particle effects, already reported in the literature. In conclusion, we find that air mass types have independent effects on mortality for both the cold and warm season and may be used to predict weather-related adverse health effects.     

Climate response of Picea schrenkiana based on tree-ring width and maximum density

The effect of global warming on alpine forests is complex. It is crucial, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on the radial growth of trees at different altitudes. The tree growth–climate relationship remains poorly understood at large spatial scales in the Tianshan Mountains, China. Schrenk spruce (P. schrenkiana) is a unique tree species to this area. In this study, we collected tree-ring width and maximum density data from nine plots along an altitudinal gradient. Results showed that altitude affected both tree-ring width and maximum density. At high altitudes, tree-ring width was positively correlated with temperature in February of the current year. Tree-ring width was also positively correlated with precipitation in July of the previous year, and January and July of the current year, and negatively correlated with the monthly diurnal temperature range (DTR). At low altitudes, tree-ring width was negatively correlated with temperature in the early growing season and the growing season. Tree-ring width was positively correlated with precipitation in June and September of the previous year, and May of the current year. The tree-ring maximum density was positively correlated with temperature and the DTR of the growing season, and negatively correlated with precipitation in winter and growing season. Moving correlation analysis showed that the positive response of tree-ring width to precipitation in the growing season was enhanced over time at high altitudes. In the low-altitude trees, the negative response of tree-ring width to temperature in the growing season was reduced, while the positive response to precipitation in the growing season was enhanced. The positive response relationship between tree-ring maximum density and the temperature in July weakened over time. At low altitudes, the negative response of tree-ring maximum density to winter precipitation was strengthened, and a stable negative response to July precipitation was observed. As the climate becomes wetter and warmer in the Tianshan Mountains, our results suggest that the radial growth of trees may benefit at elevations above 2400 m a.s.l. There was no obvious elevation limit for the increase in tree-ring maximum density. These findings provide a basis for sustainable forest management under global climate change.     

Retrieval and Mapping of Soil Texture Based on Land Surface Diurnal Temperature Range Data from MODIS

Numerous studies have investigated the direct retrieval of soil properties, including soil texture, using remotely sensed images. However, few have considered how soil properties influence dynamic changes in remote images or how soil processes affect the characteristics of the spectrum. This study investigated a new method for mapping regional soil texture based on the hypothesis that the rate of change of land surface temperature is related to soil texture, given the assumption of similar starting soil moisture conditions. The study area was a typical flat area in the Yangtze-Huai River Plain, East China. We used the widely available land surface temperature product of MODIS as the main data source. We analyzed the relationships between the content of different particle soil size fractions at the soil surface and land surface day temperature, night temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) during three selected time periods. These periods occurred after rainfalls and between the previous harvest and the subsequent autumn sowing in 2004, 2007 and 2008. Then, linear regression models were developed between the land surface DTR and sand (> 0.05 mm), clay (< 0.001 mm) and physical clay (< 0.01 mm) contents. The models for each day were used to estimate soil texture. The spatial distribution of soil texture from the studied area was mapped based on the model with the minimum RMSE. A validation dataset produced error estimates for the predicted maps of sand, clay and physical clay, expressed as RMSE of 10.69%, 4.57%, and 12.99%, respectively. The absolute error of the predictions is largely influenced by variations in land cover. Additionally, the maps produced by the models illustrate the natural spatial continuity of soil texture. This study demonstrates the potential for digitally mapping regional soil texture variations in flat areas using readily available MODIS data.     

A human-induced landscape of fear influences foraging behavior of brown bears

Animals adapt their foraging behavior to variations in food availability and predation risk. In Sweden, brown bears (Ursus arctos) depend on a nearly continuous intake of berries, especially bilberries (Vaccinium myrtillus) during late summer and early autumn to fatten up prior to hibernation. This overlaps with the bear hunting season that starts on 21 August. Bilberry occurrence varies across space, as does human-induced mortality risk. Here, we hypothesize that brown bears select for areas with a high probability of bilberry occurrence across a boreal forest ecosystem in Sweden (H1), and that human-induced mortality risk reduces bear selection for bilberries (H2). In addition, we hypothesized that bears that survived the hunting season avoided bilberry areas associated with high risk, whereas bears that were later killed selected more strongly for berries and less against risk prior to the hunting season (H3). To evaluate our hypotheses, we used resource selection functions to contrast bear GPS relocation data (N = 35, 2012–2015) and random positions within the bearś home range with generalized linear mixed effect models against two focal variables: a map predicting bilberry occurrence and a map predicting human-induced mortality risk. We found that bears selected for areas with a high probability of bilberry occurrence (supporting H1), but avoided these areas if they were associated with and high risk of hunting mortality (supporting H2). The killed and surviving bears did not differ in their selection for bilberries, but they did differ in their selection against risk (partially supporting H3). Surviving bears strongly avoided high risk areas, whereas killed bears responded less to risk and selected for high-risk areas with a low probability of bilberry occurrence. This suggests that killed bears selected for other food sources than berries in high risk areas, which exposed them to human hunters. We conclude that bears respond to a landscape of fear during the berry season and that different foraging strategies may have a direct impact on individual mortality during the hunting season.     

Contrasting Community versus Population-Based Estimates of Grazing and Virus-Induced Mortality of Phytoplankton

In this study, grazing and virus-induced mortality of phytoplankton was investigated in a freshwater pond at the University of Toronto Mississauga, Canada, during September 2009. The modified dilution assay, which partitions phytoplankton mortality into virus and grazing-induced fractions, was used along with newly designed, taxon-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays that target psbA gene fragments to estimate growth and mortality rates for both the entire phytoplankton community and four distinct phytoplankton populations. Community mortality was estimated via fluorometric determination of chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations, whereas the relative mortality of individual phytoplankton populations was estimated via qPCR. The sources and amounts of mortality for individual phytoplankton populations differed from those of the whole community, as well as from each other. Grazing was found to be the only significant source of mortality for the community (0.32 day(-1)), and the Prymnesiales (1.65 day(-1)) and Chroococcales (2.79 day(-1)) populations studied. On the other hand, the Chlamydomonadales population examined experienced both significant grazing (1.01 day(-1)) and viral lysis (0.96 day(-1)), while the Chlorellales population only experienced significant mortality as a result of viral lysis (1.38 day(-1)). Our results demonstrate that the combination of qPCR and the modified dilution method can be used to estimate both viral lysis and grazing pressure on several individual phytoplankton populations within a community simultaneously. Further, previously noted limitations of the modified dilution method associated with the dilution of specific phytoplankton populations at low abundances can be overcome with the qPCR-based approach. Most importantly, this study demonstrates that when used alone, whole community-based methods of assessing mortality can overlook valuable information about carbon flow in aquatic microbial food webs.     

Larger diurnal temperature range undermined later autumn leaf senescence with warming in Europe

Aim

Climate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (T_mean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long-term in situ observations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming.

Location

Europe.

Time period

1950–2015.

Major taxa studied

Plant phenology.

Methods

We used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature-driven LSD models [i.e., cooling-degree-day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night-temperature CDD (DN_CDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs.

Results

We found that observational increases in T_mean and DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. Increased T_mean delayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, the T_mean sensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C⁻¹). Warming asymmetry-related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water-use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry.

Main conclusions

Our findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing-dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change.