Mathematical modelling of hepatitis C treatment for injecting drug users

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne infection that can lead to progressive liver failure, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. In developed countries, the majority of HCV infections are transmitted via injecting drug users (IDUs). Despite effective antiviral treatment for HCV, very few active IDUs are treated. Reluctance to treat is partially due to the risk of reinfection. We develop a mathematical model of HCV transmission amongst active IDUs, and examine the potential effect of antiviral treatment. As most mathematical models of interventions utilise a treatment function proportional to the infected population, but many policy implementations set fixed yearly targets for specific numbers treated, we study the effects of using two different treatment terms: annually treating a proportion of infecteds or a fixed number of infecteds. We examine the behaviour of the two treatment models and find different bifurcation behaviours in each case. We calculate analytical solutions for the treatment level needed for disease clearance or control, and observe that achievable levels of treatment can result in control or eradication across a wide range of prevalence levels. Finally, we calculate the sensitivity of the critical treatment threshold to the model parameters, and find that for a given observed prevalence, the injecting duration and infection risk play the most important role in determining the treatment level needed. By contrast, the sensitivity analysis indicates the presence (or absence) of immunity does not alter the treatment threshold. We conclude by discussing the public health implications of this work, and comment on the importance and feasibility of utilising treatment as prevention for HCV spread amongst IDUs.     

Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in a Portfolio of Prevention Programs for Injection Drug Users in Mixed HIV Epidemics

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral treatment (oral PrEP) for HIV-uninfected injection drug users (IDUs) is potentially useful in controlling HIV epidemics with a significant injection drug use component. We estimated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of strategies for using oral PrEP in various combinations with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Ukraine, a representative case for mixed HIV epidemics.

Methods and Findings

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs who inject opiates, and IDUs in MMT, adding an oral PrEP program (tenofovir/emtricitabine, 49% susceptibility reduction) for uninfected IDUs. We analyzed intervention portfolios consisting of oral PrEP (25% or 50% of uninfected IDUs), MMT (25% of IDUs), and ART (80% of all eligible patients). We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, HIV infections averted, and incremental cost effectiveness. A combination of PrEP for 50% of IDUs and MMT lowered HIV prevalence the most in both IDUs and the general population. ART combined with MMT and PrEP (50% access) averted the most infections (14,267). For a PrEP cost of $950, the most cost-effective strategy was MMT, at $520/QALY gained versus no intervention. The next most cost-effective strategy consisted of MMT and ART, costing $1,000/QALY gained compared to MMT alone. Further adding PrEP (25% access) was also cost effective by World Health Organization standards, at $1,700/QALY gained. PrEP alone became as cost effective as MMT at a cost of $650, and cost saving at $370 or less.

Conclusions

Oral PrEP for IDUs can be part of an effective and cost-effective strategy to control HIV in regions where injection drug use is a significant driver of the epidemic. Where budgets are limited, focusing on MMT and ART access should be the priority, unless PrEP has low cost.     

Reinfection after treatment of schistosome infections

Today, chemotherapy has a central role in the control of schistosome infections. Although the costs involved may be high in relation to local expenditures on health, externally funded mass treatment programmes can lead to large reductions in the prevalence and intensity of schistosome infections. But the benefits of treatment to a community that has been involved in a mass chemotherapy programme, or to an individual patient seen in a health centre, will be limited if reinfection after treatment is rapid and intense. Despite the efficacy of the available drugs few, if any, control programmes based on mass chemotherapy have interrupted transmission and come anywhere near to eradicating schistosome infection.     

Treatment of hepatitis C as prevention: a modeling case study in Vietnam

Background

Treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) is very effective, achieving a cure in 50–90% of patients. Besides its own good for individuals, this most likely translates in reduced transmission, but this phenomenon has yet to be fully explored.

Methods and Findings

In this mathematical modeling study done in the context of Vietnam, we estimated the public health benefit that HCV therapy for injecting drug users (IDUs) may achieve. Treatment coverage of 25, 50 and 75% of chronically HCV-infected IDUs (4 years into infection) is predicted to reduce the chronic HCV viremia prevalence respectively by 21, 37 and 50%, 11 years after full scale up to the intended coverage. At a constant 50% coverage level, earlier treatment, 3, 2, and 1 year into infection is predicted to reduce the chronic HCV viremia prevalence by 46, 60 and 85%. In these later 3 scenarios, for every 100 treatment courses provided, a total of respectively 50, 61 and 94 new infections could be averted. These benefits were projected in the context of current low coverage of methadone maintenance therapy and needles/syringes exchange programs, and these services expansion showed complementary preventive benefits to HCV therapy. The program treatment commitment associated with the various scenarios is deemed reasonable. Our model projections are robust under adjustment for uncertainty in the model parameter values.

Conclusions

In this case study in Vietnam, we project that treatment of HCV for injecting drug users will have a preventative herd effect in addition to curing patients in need for therapy, achieving a substantial reduction in HCV transmission and prevalence.     

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost Thresholds of Generic and Brand Drugs in a National Chronic Hepatitis B Treatment Program in China

Chronic liver disease and liver cancer associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are leading causes of death among adults in China. Although newborn hepatitis B immunization has successfully reduced the prevalence of CHB in children, about 100 million Chinese adults remain chronically infected. If left unmanaged, 15–25% will die from liver cancer or liver cirrhosis. Antiviral treatment is not necessary for all patients with CHB, but when it is indicated, good response to treatment would prevent disease progression and reduce disease mortality and morbidity, and costly complications. The aim of this study is to analyze the cost-effectiveness of generic and brand antiviral drugs for CHB treatment in China, and assessing various thresholds at which a highly potent, low resistance antiviral drug would be cost-saving and/or cost-effective to introduce in a national treatment program. We developed a Markov simulation model of disease progression using effectiveness and cost data from the medical literature. We measured life-time costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and clinical outcomes. The no treatment strategy incurred the highest health care costs ($12,932-$25,293) per patient, and the worst health outcomes, compared to the antiviral treatment strategies. Monotherapy with either entecavir or tenofovir yielded the most QALYs (14.10–19.02) for both HBeAg-positive and negative patients, with or without cirrhosis. Threshold analysis showed entercavir or tenofovir treatment would be cost saving if the drug price is $32–75 (195–460 RMB) per month, highly cost-effective at $62–110 (379–670 RMB) per month and cost-effective at $63–120 (384–734 RMB) per month. This study can support policy decisions regarding the implementation of a national health program for chronic hepatitis B treatment in China at the population level.     

Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of expanding harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy in a mixed HIV epidemic: a modeling analysis for Ukraine

Background

Injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual virus transmission both contribute to the growing mixed HIV epidemics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Ukraine—chosen in this study as a representative country—IDU-related risk behaviors cause half of new infections, but few injection drug users (IDUs) receive methadone substitution therapy. Only 10% of eligible individuals receive antiretroviral therapy (ART). The appropriate resource allocation between these programs has not been studied. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for expanding methadone substitution therapy programs and ART in mixed HIV epidemics, using Ukraine as a case study.

Methods and Findings

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs using opiates, and IDUs on methadone substitution therapy, stratified by HIV status, and populated it with data from the Ukraine. We considered interventions expanding methadone substitution therapy, increasing access to ART, or both. We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, infections averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Without incremental interventions, HIV prevalence reached 67.2% (IDUs) and 0.88% (non-IDUs) after 20 years. Offering methadone substitution therapy to 25% of IDUs reduced prevalence most effectively (to 53.1% IDUs, 0.80% non-IDUs), and was most cost-effective, averting 4,700 infections and adding 76,000 QALYs compared with no intervention at US$530/QALY gained. Expanding both ART (80% coverage of those eligible for ART according to WHO criteria) and methadone substitution therapy (25% coverage) was the next most cost-effective strategy, adding 105,000 QALYs at US$1,120/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy and averting 8,300 infections versus no intervention. Expanding only ART (80% coverage) added 38,000 QALYs at US$2,240/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy, and averted 4,080 infections versus no intervention. Offering ART to 80% of non-IDUs eligible for treatment by WHO criteria, but only 10% of IDUs, averted only 1,800 infections versus no intervention and was not cost effective.

Conclusions

Methadone substitution therapy is a highly cost-effective option for the growing mixed HIV epidemic in Ukraine. A strategy that expands both methadone substitution therapy and ART to high levels is the most effective intervention, and is very cost effective by WHO criteria. When expanding ART, access to methadone substitution therapy provides additional benefit in infections averted. Our findings are potentially relevant to other settings with mixed HIV epidemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Non-fundholding in Nottingham: a vision of the future.

The 1991 health service reforms introduced the internal market and grave individual fundholding practices budgets with which they could attempt to secure preferential access to secondary health care for their patients. In the view of many doctors this undermined the principle of equity on which the NHS was founded. In Nottingham 200 non-fundholding general practitioners have joined together to act in liaison with their purchasing health authority. A committed representative group of general practitioners can collectively offer more time and knowledge to the contracting process while minimising the impact on clinical workload. As a large purchaser with low management costs the group has secured access to quality secondary care which is equitably available to all patients, preventing the development of a local two tier service. Nottingham''s non-fundholding model of commissioning is equitable and efficient.     

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BackgroundModelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.Methods and findingsWe adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY).Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.ConclusionsInvestment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Aaron G Lim and colleagues model the health and economic benefits of eliminating hepatitis C in Pakistan.     

Long Term Control of Scabies Fifteen Years after an Intensive Treatment Programme

Introduction

Scabies is a major public health problem in the Pacific and is associated with an increased risk of bacterial skin infections, glomerulonephritis and rheumatic fever. Mass drug administration with ivermectin is a promising strategy for the control of scabies. Mass treatment with ivermectin followed by active case finding was conducted in five communities in the Solomon Islands between 1997 and 2000 and resulted in a significant reduction in the prevalence of both scabies and bacterial skin infections.

Methods

We conducted a prospective follow-up study of the communities where the original scabies control programme had been undertaken. All residents underwent a standardised examination for the detection of scabies and impetigo.

Results

Three hundred and thirty eight residents were examined, representing 69% of the total population of the five communities. Only 1 case of scabies was found, in an adult who had recently returned from the mainland. The prevalence of active impetigo was 8.8% overall and 12.4% in children aged 12 years or less.

Discussion

We found an extremely low prevalence of scabies 15 years after the cessation of a scabies control programme. The prevalence of impetigo had also declined further since the end of the control programme. Our results suggest that a combination of mass treatment with ivermectin and intensive active case finding may result in long term control of scabies. Larger scale studies and integration with other neglected tropical disease control programmes should be priorities for scabies control efforts.     

Cost-effective strategies for mitigating a future influenza pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics

Background

We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to $777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses.

Conclusion

The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severity had no effect on the overall findings.     

Is Adding HCV Screening to the Antenatal National Screening Program in Amsterdam,The Netherlands,Cost-Effective?

Introduction

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to severe liver disease. Pregnant women are already routinely screened for several infectious diseases, but not yet for HCV infection. Here we examine whether adding HCV screening to routine screening is cost-effective.

Methods

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing HCV screening of all pregnant women and HCV screening of first-generation non-Western pregnant women as compared to no screening, we developed a Markov model. For the parameters of the model, we used prevalence data from pregnant women retrospectively tested for HCV in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and from literature sources. In addition, we estimated the effect of possible treatment improvement in the future.

Results

The incremental costs per woman screened was €41 and 0.0008 life-years were gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €52,473 which is above the cost-effectiveness threshold of €50,000. For screening first-generation non-Western migrants, the ICER was €47,113. Best-case analysis for both scenarios showed ICERs of respectively €19,505 and €17,533. We estimated that if costs per treatment were to decline to €3,750 (a reduction in price of €31,000), screening all pregnant women would be cost-effective.

Conclusions

Currently, adding HCV screening to the already existing screening program for pregnant women is not cost-effective for women in general. However, adding HCV screening for first-generation non-Western women shows a modest cost-effective outcome. Yet, best case analysis shows potentials for an ICER below €20,000 per life-year gained. Treatment options will improve further in the coming years, enhancing cost-effectiveness even more.     

HIV screening via fourth-generation immunoassay or nucleic acid amplification test in the United States: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

At least 10% of the 56,000 annual new HIV infections in the United States are caused by individuals with acute HIV infection (AHI). It unknown whether the health benefits and costs of routine nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) are justified, given the availability of newer fourth-generation immunoassay tests.

Methods

Using a dynamic HIV transmission model instantiated with U.S. epidemiologic, demographic, and behavioral data, I estimated the number of acute infections identified, HIV infections prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies. I varied the target population (everyone aged 15-64, injection drug users [IDUs] and men who have sex with men [MSM], or MSM only), screening frequency (annually, or every six months), and test(s) utilized (fourth-generation immunoassay only, or immunoassay followed by pooled NAAT).

Results

Annual immunoassay testing of MSM reduces incidence by 9.5% and costs <$10,000 per QALY gained. Adding pooled NAAT identifies 410 AHI per year, prevents 9.6% of new cases, costs $92,000 per QALY gained, and remains <$100,000 per QALY gained in settings where undiagnosed HIV prevalence exceeds 4%. Screening IDUs and MSM annually with fourth-generation immunoassay reduces incidence by 13% with cost-effectiveness <$10,000 per QALY gained. Increasing the screening frequency to every six months reduces incidence by 11% (MSM only) or 16% (MSM and IDUs) and costs <$20,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

Pooled NAAT testing every 12 months of MSM and IDUs in the United States prevents a modest number of infections, but may be cost-effective given sufficiently high HIV prevalence levels. However, testing via fourth-generation immunoassay every six months prevents a greater number of infections, is more economically efficient, and may obviate the benefits of acute HIV screening via NAAT.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of behaviour change interventions: a proposed new approach and an application to Egypt

This paper presents a new approach to cost analysis of family planning programmes that focuses on behaviour change of programme clients as the final 'output' rather than units of contraceptive services delivered, as does the familiar couple-years-of-protection index. It is useful to know how much it costs to deliver a unit of contraceptive services, but it would also seem useful to know how much it costs to change a prospective client's behaviour. The proposed approach rests on the familiar 'steps to behaviour change' paradigm and: (1) develops a methodology for applying a client-behaviour-change-centred cost analysis to programme activities; (2) tests the methodology and concepts by applying them retrospectively to a case study of mass media interventions in Egypt; (3) derives cost per unit of behaviour changes for these Egyptian communications campaigns to demonstrate the workability of the approach. This framework offers a new approach to impact evaluation that would seem to be applicable to other components of family planning and reproductive health programmes.     

An Economic Evaluation of Neonatal Screening for Inborn Errors of Metabolism Using Tandem Mass Spectrometry in Thailand

Background

Inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) are a rare group of genetic diseases which can lead to several serious long-term complications in newborns. In order to address these issues as early as possible, a process called tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) can be used as it allows for rapid and simultaneous detection of the diseases. This analysis was performed to determine whether newborn screening by MS/MS is cost-effective in Thailand.

Method

A cost-utility analysis comprising a decision-tree and Markov model was used to estimate the cost in Thai baht (THB) and health outcomes in life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) presented as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The results were also adjusted to international dollars (I$) using purchasing power parities (PPP) (1 I$ = 17.79 THB for the year 2013). The comparisons were between 1) an expanded neonatal screening programme using MS/MS screening for six prioritised diseases: phenylketonuria (PKU); isovaleric acidemia (IVA); methylmalonic acidemia (MMA); propionic acidemia (PA); maple syrup urine disease (MSUD); and multiple carboxylase deficiency (MCD); and 2) the current practice that is existing PKU screening. A comparison of the outcome and cost of treatment before and after clinical presentations were also analysed to illustrate the potential benefit of early treatment for affected children. A budget impact analysis was conducted to illustrate the cost of implementing the programme for 10 years.

Results

The ICER of neonatal screening using MS/MS amounted to 1,043,331 THB per QALY gained (58,647 I$ per QALY gained). The potential benefits of early detection compared with late detection yielded significant results for PKU, IVA, MSUD, and MCD patients. The budget impact analysis indicated that the implementation cost of the programme was expected at approximately 2,700 million THB (152 million I$) over 10 years.

Conclusion

At the current ceiling threshold, neonatal screening using MS/MS in the Thai context is not cost-effective. However, the treatment of patients who were detected early for PKU, IVA, MSUD, and MCD, are considered favourable. The budget impact analysis suggests that the implementation of the programme will incur considerable expenses under limited resources. A long-term epidemiological study on the incidence of IEM in Thailand is strongly recommended to ascertain the magnitude of problem.     

High Prevalence of HIV, HCV, HBV and Co-Infection and Associated Risk Factors among Injecting Drug Users in Yunnan Province, China

Objective

To estimate the prevalence of HIV, HCV, HBV and co-infection with 2 or 3 viruses and evaluate risk factors among injecting drug users (IDUs) in Yunnan province, China.

Methods

2080 IDUs were recruited from 5 regions of Yunnan Province, China to detect the infection status of HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate risk factors related to HIV, HCV and HBV infections.

Results

The infection rates among all participants were 25.5% for HIV, 77.7% for HCV, 19.2% for HBV, 15% for HIV/HCV, 0.3% for HIV/HBV, 7.8% for HCV/HBV and 7.1% for HIV/HCV/HBV. The prevalence of virus infection varied widely by region in Yunnan of China. Statistical analyses indicated that high prevalence of HIV and HCV among IDUs was positively associated with the duration of drug injection and sharing needles/syringes; besides, HCV infection was associated with the frequency of drug injection.

Conclusions

HIV, HCV, HBV infections and co-infections were still very prevalent among IDUs in Yunnan province because of drug use behaviors.     

Hepatitis C Virus Infection among Injection Drug Users with and without Human Immunodeficiency Virus Co-Infection

The aim of this study is to explore the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among injection drug users (IDUs) with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in southern Taiwan. For 562 IDUs (265 anti-HIV negative, 297 anti-HIV positive), we analyzed liver function, anti-HIV antibody, anti-HCV antibody, HCV viral loads, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). HIV RNA viral loads and CD4 cell count for anti-HIV-seropositive IDUs and the HCV genotype for HCV RNA-seropositive IDUs were measured. The seroprevalence rates of anti-HIV, anti-HCV, and HBsAg were 52.8%, 91.3%, and 15.3%, respectively. All the anti-HIV-seropositive IDUs were positive for HIV RNA. Anti-HCV seropositivity was the most important factor associated with HIV infection (odds ratio [OR], 25.06; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 8.97–74.9), followed by male gender (OR, 6.12; 95% CI, 4.05–9.39) and HBsAg seropositivity (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.11–3.34). Among IDUs positive for anti-HCV, 80.7% had detectable HCV RNA. HCV viremia after HCV exposure was strongly related to HIV infection (OR, 6.262; 95% CI, 1.515–18.28), but negatively correlated to HBsAg seropositivity (OR, 0.161; 95% CI, 0.082–0.317). HCV genotype 6 was the most prevalent genotype among all IDUs (41.0%), followed by genotypes 1 (32.3%), 3 (12.8%), and 2 (5.6%). In conclusion, about half IDUs were infected with HIV and >90% with HCV infection. Male and seropositivity for HBsAg and anti-HCV were factors related to HIV infection among our IDUs. HIV was positively correlated, whereas hepatitis B co-infection was negatively correlated with HCV viremia among IDUs with HCV exposure. Different HCV molecular epidemiology was noted among IDUs.     

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Early Identification of HIV and HCV Infection in Injection Drug Users

Objective

To estimate the cost, effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of HIV and HCV screening of injection drug users (IDUs) in opioid replacement therapy (ORT).

Design

Dynamic compartmental model of HIV and HCV in a population of IDUs and non-IDUs for a representative U.S. urban center with 2.5 million adults (age 15–59).

Methods

We considered strategies of screening individuals in ORT for HIV, HCV, or both infections by antibody or antibody and viral RNA testing. We evaluated one-time and repeat screening at intervals from annually to once every 3 months. We calculated the number of HIV and HCV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

Adding HIV and HCV viral RNA testing to antibody testing averts 14.8–30.3 HIV and 3.7–7.7 HCV infections in a screened population of 26,100 IDUs entering ORT over 20 years, depending on screening frequency. Screening for HIV antibodies every 6 months costs $30,700/QALY gained. Screening for HIV antibodies and viral RNA every 6 months has an ICER of $65,900/QALY gained. Strategies including HCV testing have ICERs exceeding $100,000/QALY gained unless awareness of HCV-infection status results in a substantial reduction in needle-sharing behavior.

Discussion

Although annual screening for antibodies to HIV and HCV is modestly cost effective compared to no screening, more frequent screening for HIV provides additional benefit at less cost. Screening individuals in ORT every 3–6 months for HIV infection using both antibody and viral RNA technologies and initiating ART for acute HIV infection appears cost effective.     

Characteristics of hepatitis C infection in injecting drug users in Zadar County, Croatia

The aim of the study was to determine additional risk factors that could increase the prevalence of hepatitis C (HCV) infection among injecting drug users (IDU). The study included 327 heroin addicts registered in Zadar County, Croatia. The participants were divided into two groups according to their HCV status. HCV-positive and HCV-negative study participants were compared. HCV-positive group started injecting heroin at earlier age (median 18.5 years) than HCV-negative group (median 20.0 years) (p = 0.032) and had been injecting heroin for a significantly longer period (median 5 years vs. median 4 years, respectively; p < 0.001). IDUs in HCV-positive group shared their injecting equipment significantly more often than IDUs in HCV-negative group (p < 0.001; chi2 = 32.7). The main reasons for starting drugs were curiosity, psychological reasons (depression and/or neurosis), and peer or partner pressure in HCV-positive group, and fun, curiosity, and peer pressure in HCV-negative group (p = 0.051; chi2 = 23.6). Earlier onset of heroin use, longer heroin use, sharing injection equipment, curiosity, and psychological problems as reasons for starting drugs were associated with higher prevalence of HCV infection among injecting heroin users in Zadar County.     

Estimating the Impact of State Budget Cuts and Redirection of Prevention Resources on the HIV Epidemic in 59 California Local Health Departments

Background

In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009–2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs.

Methods and Findings

We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts.

Conclusions

Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.     

Optimal Allocation of Resources in Female Sex Worker Targeted HIV Prevention Interventions: Model Insights from Avahan in South India

Background

The Avahan programme has provided HIV prevention activities, including condom promotion, to female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India since 2004. Evidence suggests Avahan averted 202,000 HIV infections over 4 years. For replicating this intervention elsewhere, it is essential to understand how the intervention’s impact could have been optimised for different budget levels.

Methods

Behavioural data were used to determine how condom use varied for FSWs with different levels of intervention intensity. Cost data from 64 Avahan districts quantified how district-level costs related to intervention scale and intensity. A deterministic model for HIV transmission amongst FSWs and clients projected the impact and cost of intervention strategies for different scale and intensity, and identified the optimal strategies that maximise impact for different budget levels.

Results

As budget levels increase, the optimal intervention strategy is to first increase intervention intensity which achieves little impact, then scale-up coverage to high levels for large increases in impact, and lastly increase intensity further for small additional gains. The cost-effectiveness of these optimal strategies generally improves with increasing resources, while straying from these strategies can triple costs for the same impact. Projections suggest Avahan was close to being optimal, and moderate budget reductions (≥20%) would have reduced impact considerably (>40%).

Discussion

Our analysis suggests that tailoring the design of HIV prevention programmes for FSWs can improve impact, and that a certain level of resources are required to achieve demonstrable impact. These insights are critical for optimising the use of limited resources for preventing HIV.