Quantitative palaeoclimatic inference based on terrestrial mammal faunas

Aim The main goal of this paper is to propose a new tool, in the form of Quantitative Bioclimatic Models (QnBMs), for reconstructing past climates based on fossil mammal associations. As a case study, European climatic conditions during the basal early Pleistocene will be inferred using QnBMs. Location The study uses faunas throughout the world to develop a quantitative bioclimatic model, which is then applied to Quaternary faunas from Eurasia. Methods The models were constructed by applying multivariate linear regression to modern mammal faunas and climates from all over the world. The models were validated with a second group of modern faunas, which includes several from transitional zones between different climates (ecotones). To test the reliability of the method when applied to fossil associations, the results obtained for the Pleistocene have been compared with those obtained from palynology. Results Validation of the models shows that as many as 11 climatic factors can be inferred with high reliability using the regression models developed in this work. Comparisons of results in the late Pleistocene–Holocene of Barová (Czech Republic) between a palynological study and the quantitative bioclimatic analysis show a high degree of similarity. The results for the early Pleistocene show colder and drier climatic conditions for Europe than today. Main conclusions The application of the quantitative bioclimatic models to present day as well as Quaternary mammal faunas proves to be a useful tool for palaeoclimatic reconstruction during the Quaternary and probably most of the Neogene. Transfer functions are presented for a complete set of climatic factors, allowing a precise estimation of the climate in a locality from its mammal fauna.     

Bioclimatic discriminant capacity of terrestrial mammal faunas

A new method of environmental inference is presented. This method uses the climatic restriction index (CRI) for each mammal species, based on its geographical range within different climatic regimes, and a set of calculated summary indexes known as the bioclimatic spectrum. Analysis of 50 faunas throughout the world shows that terrestrial mammal communities are effective tools for accurate climatic inference at large spatial scale. The results also indicate that the use of entire mammalian fauna is the best inference system, followed by those based on separate groups such as Insectivora, Rodentia, micromammals and macromammals. Removing Chiroptera from the analysis does not change the results significantly. Bioclimatic analysis appears to be a good method for environmental interpretation. This new method ensures a high qualitative precision. It provides an empirical model for mammal community characterization that must be taken into account for palaeoclimatic reconstructions of continental environments.     

Cenozoic environmental change in South America as indicated by mammalian body size distributions (cenograms)

A cenogram is a rank‐ordered body size distribution of non‐predatory terrestrial mammal species within a community. Studies of cenograms for modern faunas have shown that certain quantifiable attributes of cenograms are correlated with environmental variables such as rainfall and vegetation structure. Based on these correlations, cenograms of fossil communities have been used to infer palaeoenvironments and palaeoenvironmental variables. The present study uses cenogram statistics to interpret palaeoenvironmental conditions for eight Cenozoic South American mammal faunas, ranging from Eocene to Pleistocene in age. Body sizes for fossil taxa were taken either from the literature or were estimated using regressions of body size on molar length (or femoral bicondylar width) for modern mammals. Cenogram statistics are calculated for the eight fossil faunas and compared to similar statistics calculated for 16 modern South American mammal faunas, allowing palaeoenvironmental interpretations to be made. The palaeoenvironmental interpretations based on cenogram analyses sometimes support and sometimes contradict interpretations based on herbivore craniodental morphology (e.g. levels of hypsodonty). Simulations of expected errors in body size estimates for fossil taxa suggest that the discrepancies do not result primarily from erroneous body size estimates. It is possible that some of the incongruity in interpretations results from certain non‐analogue attributes of South American faunas during much of the Cenozoic (e.g. the relatively depauperate mammalian predator diversity prior to the Great American Biotic Interchange).     

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

Aim To identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model. Location South America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina. Methods We used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data. Results Simple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3–4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions. Main conclusions Simple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.     

Plio-Pleistocene climatic change in the Turkana Basin (East Africa): evidence from large mammal faunas

We investigated palaeoclimatic change in the Turkana Basin during the Pliocene climatic shift toward increased aridity in Africa. We analyzed the palaeoecology of this area using mammal faunas as environmental indicators. Twenty Plio-Pleistocene fossil assemblages and a comparative dataset of 16 modern localities covering a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions across Africa were analyzed. We constructed community profiles using taxonomic variables which reflect ecological information. Principal component analysis and bivariate correlation were used to study changes in the community structure of these mammalian faunas and to draw palaeoenvironmental inferences. Subsequently, least-squares regressions yielded climatic estimates (annual rainfall and drought length) for the studied period. An additional set of 8 modern faunas was used to validate these regression models. The climatic estimates showed a drying trend throughout the sequence. The biomes in the Turkana Basin changed from semi-evergreen rain forest to deciduous woodland and savanna during the middle-late Pliocene. This was the most important climatic shift detected in our study. Evidence suggests a continuous presence of savannas from 2.5 million years ago onwards. This pattern of climatic change is consistent with isotopic evidence on global climate, and with independently derived regional palaeoenvironmental evidence (i.e., micromammals, palaeovegetation, soil carbonates and palaeosols).     

Holocene vegetation change and the mammal faunas of South America and Africa

Aim Although sharing many similarities in their vegetation types, South America and Africa harbour very dissimilar recent mammal faunas, not only taxonomically but also in terms of several faunistic patterns. However late Pleistocene and mid‐Holocene faunas, albeit taxonomically distinct, presented many convergent attributes. Here we propose that the effects of the Holocene climatic change on vegetation physiognomy has played a crucial role in shaping the extant mammalian faunistic patterns. Location South America and Africa from the late Pleistocene to the present. Methods Data presented here have been compiled from many distinct sources, including palaeontological and neontological mammalian studies, palaeoclimatology, palynology, and publications on vegetation ecology. Data on Pleistocene, Holocene and extant mammal faunas of South America and Africa allowed us to establish a number of similar and dissimilar faunistic patterns between the two continents across time. We then considered what changes in vegetation physiognomy would have occurred under the late Pleistocene last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) climatic regimes. We have ordained these proposed vegetation changes along rough physiognomic seral stages according to assumptions based on current botanical research. Finally, we have associated our hypothesized vegetation changes in South America and Africa with mammalian faunistic patterns, establishing a putative causal relationship between them. Results The extant mammal faunas of South America and Africa differ widely in taxonomical composition; the number of medium and large species they possess; behavioural and ecological characteristics related to herbivore herding, migration and predation; and biogeographical patterns. All such distinctions are mostly related to the open formation faunas, and have been completely established around the mid‐Holocene. Considering that the mid‐Holocene was a time of greater humidity than the late Pleistocene, vegetation cover in South America and Africa would have been dominated by forest or closed vegetation landscapes, at least for most of their lower altitude tropical regions. We attribute the loss of larger‐sized mammal lineages in South America to the decrease of open vegetation area, and their survival in Africa to the existence of vast savannas in formerly steppic or desertic areas in subtropical Africa, north and south of the equator. Alternative explanations, mostly dealing with the disappearance of South American megamammals, are then reviewed and criticized. Main conclusions The reduction of open formation areas during the HCO in South America and Africa explains most of the present distinct faunistic patterns between the two continents. While South America would have lost most of its open formations within the 30° latitudinal belt, Africa would have kept large areas suitable to the open formation mammalian fauna in areas presently occupied by desert and semi‐arid vegetation. Thus, the same general climatic events that affected South America in the late Pleistocene and Holocene also affected Africa, leading to our present day faunistic dissimilarities by maintaining the African mammalian communities almost unchanged while dramatically altering those of South America.     

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.     

Mammal diversity and environment evolution during the Plio-Pleistocene in East Africa

Human evolution began in East Africa four million years ago, with a transition from an arboreal state to a more terrestrial one. This evolution seems to be correlated with a large environmental change in East Africa around 2.5 m.y. due to a major climatic change leading to drier and cooler conditions. Cenogram analysis (a graphical representation of community structure) can be used to reconstruct the vegetation cover at a regional scale, and to infer the changing climatic conditions. Using cenogram sequences of different sites along the Rift Valley, we were able to determine the regional ecological context in which mammals and hominids have evolved in East Africa during the last 3 million years. Between 3.5 and 2 m.y., during a general climatic change, successive faunas of South Tanzania reflect the progressive opening of their environment. In contrast around Lake Turkana a mosaic of isolated dry and wet habitats were present throughout this period. At this time, the Rift seems to have been spatially structured in several basins isolated from one other, and isolated faunas experienced separate speciation events (particularly with the appearance ofHomo genus). After 2 m.y., the disappearance of the isolating barriers on one hand, and a regional increase in aridity, on the other hand, led to more homogenous faunas arising throughout the region. Replacements of mammal species occurred (especiallyHomo erectus replacingHomo habilis) and several others mammal species, including australopithecines, disappeared during this same period.     

Ecological Structure of Recent and Last Glacial Mammalian Faunas in Northern Eurasia: The Case of Altai-Sayan Refugium

Pleistocene mammalian communities display unique features which differ from present-day faunas. The paleocommunities were characterized by the extraordinarily large body size of herbivores and predators and by their unique structure consisting of species now inhabiting geographically and ecologically distinct natural zones. These features were probably the result of the unique environmental conditions of ice age ecosystems. To analyze the ecological structure of Last Glacial and Recent mammal communities we classified the species into biome and trophic-size categories, using Principal Component analysis. We found a marked similarity in ecological structure between Recent eastern Altai-Sayan mammalian assemblages and comparable Pleistocene faunas. The composition of Last Glacial and Recent eastern Altai-Sayan assemblages were characterized by the occurrence of large herbivore and predator species associated with steppe, desert and alpine biomes. These three modern biomes harbor most of the surviving Pleistocene mammals. None of the analyzed Palearctic Last Glacial faunas showed affinity to the temperate forest, taiga, or tundra biome. The Eastern part of the Altai-Sayan region could be considered a refugium of the Last Glacial-like mammalian assemblages. Glacial fauna seems to persist up to present in those areas where the forest belt does not separate alpine vegetation from the steppes and deserts.     

The relationship between mammal faunas and climatic instability since the Last Glacial Maximum: A Nearctic vs. Western Palearctic comparison

Climate has played a key role in shaping the geographic patterns of biodiversity. The imprint of Quaternary climatic fluctuations is particularly evident on the geographic distribution of Holarctic faunas, which dramatically shifted their ranges following the alternation of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene. Here, we evaluate the existence of differences between climatically stable and unstable regions – defined on the basis of climatic change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum – in the geographic distribution of several biological attributes of extant terrestrial mammals of the Nearctic and Western Palearctic regions. Specifically, we use a macroecological approach to assess the dissimilarities in species richness, range size, body size, longevity and litter size of species that inhabit regions with contrasting histories of climatic stability. While several studies have documented how the distributional ranges of animals can be affected by long-term historic climatic fluctuations, there is less evidence on the species-specific traits that determine their responsiveness under such climatic instability. We find that climatically unstable areas have more widespread species and lower mammal richness than stable regions in both continents. We detected stronger signatures of historical climatic instability on the geographic distribution of body size in the Nearctic region, possibly reflecting lagged responses to recolonize deglaciated regions. However, the way that animals respond to climatic fluctuations varies widely among species and we were unable to find a relationship between climatic instability and other mammal life-history traits (longevity and litter size) in any of the two biogeographic regions. We, therefore, conclude that beyond some biological traits typical of macroecological analyses such as geographic range size and body size, it is difficult to infer the responsiveness of species distributions to climate change solely based on particular life-history traits.     

Body size structure in north-western Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene mammalian faunas

Aim We investigated the patterns of body‐size changes of the north‐western Mediterranean Plio‐Pleistocene large mammal faunas (excluding rodents, bats, lagomorphs and insectivores) in order to identify the tempo and mode of the major shifts in body size distribution, and to put them in the context of Plio‐Pleistocene environmental changes and the development of the Mediterranean climate. Location We analysed fossil faunas of Spain, France and Italy. A set of recent regional faunas from several macroclimatic regions was selected to serve as elements for comparison of the size distribution of past faunas, consisting of: Spain, France and Italy together, Florida, California, Central Chile, Indochina, India, Korea‐Manchuria, Malawi, The Cape, North Africa, Turkey and Australia. Methods Mammal species were grouped into five body size categories for carnivores and four categories for noncarnivore species. The number of species in each size category was computed and the resulting matrix of body weight classes × regions and time intervals was used as an input matrix in a Correspondence Analysis. Results Recent and fossil faunas strongly differ in body size structure. The distribution of recent faunas within the CA seems to reflect both ecological and historic factors, intertwined in a complex fashion. No clear relationship has been observed between body size structure and environmental factors. During the late Pliocene to early Pleistocene there were only minor changes in the pattern of size distribution, although plant communities were in a transition process from subtropical forests to Mediterranean woodlands and steppes. The major change in body size structure of the north‐western Mediterranean fauna occurred at the Galerian, around 1 Ma ago. This marked the beginning of the modern fauna, and a general trend towards a larger body size, reduction in the number of medium sized herbivores, and an increase of large herbivores and megaherbivores. Main conclusions The Plio‐Pleistocene faunas lack modern analogues. The body size structure of mammalian regional faunas appears to be strongly dependent on historical factors. The only major shift in body size distribution occurred during the Plio‐Pleistocene, in the late Villafranchian‐Galerian transition, coincident with the onset of the Pleistocene high intensity glacial cycles.     

中国南方第四纪哺乳动物群所反映的自然环境变迁

<正> 现代哺乳动物的地理分布,显示出世界各大陆的动物区系同地球上气候分带是密切相关,根据我国现代动物区划(郑作新、张荣祖,1959),可将全国分二界,七个基本区,最主要是东洋与古北二界。南方地区可以划分为西南、华中及华南三亚区,这三亚区基本上是属于东洋界。一些属于东洋界的属种,仅分布于长江以南地区,而华北地区分布很少或     

Mammalian responses to Middle Holocene climatic change in the Great Basin of the western United States

In spite of decades of intense research directed toward understanding the climates and ecology of the Great Basin (western United States) during the past 10,000 years, the responses of mammals to the extreme aridity of the Middle Holocene (c. 8000–5000 years ago) in this region have been poorly understood. Using a well‐dated small mammal sequence from Homestead Cave, north‐central Utah, I show that the Middle Holocene small mammal faunas of this area underwent a decrease in species richness and evenness, driven largely by a series of local extinctions and near‐extinctions coupled with a dramatic increase in the abundance of taxa well‐adapted to xeric conditions. At the end of this period, some taxa that require relatively mesic habitats began to increase in abundance immediately, others did not rebound in abundance until several thousand years later, while still others have not returned at all. This suite of responses has been difficult to detect because climatic change at the beginning of the Middle Holocene was so much more substantial than that which occurred toward its end.     

Mollusks and small mammals from the Kuznetsovka locality, Pleistocene of the Oka-Don Plain

Kuznetsovka, a very rich locality of Interglacial mollusks and small mammals overlies the Donian Glacial strata of the Oka-Don Plain. Mollusks and small mammal from this locality are described in detail. The crucial stage in the development of Middle Pleistocene mollusk and mammal faunas is investigated. The data obtained allow the dating of fossiliferous deposits and reconstruction of sedimentation and environmental conditions of the fauna. The comparison of the Kuznetsovka Fauna with materials from central and western Europe permits its direct correlation with the fauna of the Cromerian stratotype in West Runton (Norfolk, England). Thus, the deposits of the Kuznetsovka section were formed during the second half of the early Middle Pleistocene.     

Climate and vegetation at the Eurosiberian-Mediterranean boundary in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract. The Northern Iberian Peninsula is dominated by various types of vegetation from deciduous oak and ash to evergreen oak woodlands. A recent vegetation map of Spain portrays vegetation series which are characterized in terms of their phytogeographic region or bioclimatic (altitudinal) belt. The aim of this paper is to determine whether the areas comprised by both phytogeographic regions (Eurosiberian and Mediterranean) in the study area, as established from the phytogeographic characterization of the vegetation, can be discriminated by climatic variables using multivariate methods, and to compare these with other conventional approaches. In addition, bioclimatic (altitudinal) belts and the main vegetation types were tested for discrimination by climatic variables. Conventional climatic criteria as well as discriminant and principal component analysis were applied to climatic data from 205 meteorological stations for which vegetation information had been taken from the vegetation map. Conventional criteria are good predictors of the phytogeographic division (Mediterranean and Eurosiberian regions) in the study area. Results were improved by multiple discriminant analysis based on climatic data of the dry period of the year (June to September). Both regions in the study area can be predicted with over 95 % accuracy. Using the same multivariate procedure and temperature data the bioclimatic (altitudinal) belts of the study area can be predicted with over 90 % accuracy. The main vegetation groups of the study area can also be predicted with over 80 % accuracy. Ordination analysis supported the results of the discriminant analysis. Empirical models have been generated to predict the phytogeographic- and belt character of any station in the area. The significance of the various periods of the year for discriminating regions and belts is evaluated. The responsiveness to climatic events during the year may be region specific. This study confirms the strong relationship between climate and vegetation in the Northern Iberian Peninsula, particularly regarding the Eurosiberian-Mediterranean boundary.     

Genetic variation and its evolutionary implications in a Mediterranean island endemic lizard

The peculiar bioclimatic and geographic features of Corso–Sardinian islands may provide an ideal scenario for investigating microevolutionary processes, given their large heterogeneity of environments, which could affect dispersal and gene flow among populations, as well as processes of local adaptation. The genetic variation and differentiation among populations of the endemic lizard Archaeolacerta bedriagae were studied by allozyme electrophoresis at 20 presumptive loci. The genetic structure of this species is characterized by relatively high levels of polymorphism and low differentiation among populations. The pattern of genetic differentiation cannot be explained by genetic drift as a function of geographic distance. Genetic distance data show that genetic variation is distributed into three geographically coherent population groups and suggest a recent (Late Pleistocene) origin for the observed geographic fragmentation. The analysis of environmental correlates of allozymic variation indicates a strong correlation of the Idh-1 locus with climatic variables. The frequency of the Idh-1¹⁰⁶ allele is negatively correlated with annual temperature, and positively correlated with annual precipitation. In addition, the observed heterozygosity at this locus decreases towards more arid climatic regimes. The results obtained support the assumption of differential selection acting on Idh-1 allozymes under diverse climates. An association between Idh-1 allozymes and local bioclimatic regimes was also observed for the sympatric lizard Podarcis tiliguerta , suggesting a key role for such selective agents on Idh-1 polymorphism in these two Corso–Sardinian lacertids.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 98 , 661–676.     

中国晚新近纪哺乳动物群落与东亚环境变化

根据已有的中国晚新近纪哺乳动物化石记录,综合新近研究成果,初步探讨中国晚新近纪哺乳动物群落演变进程及其对于气候与环境变化的响应。结果表明,自中中新世晚期至晚中新世(约13 Ma至7-8 Ma),中国北方哺乳动物群落组成上没有明显的分异;而在其后的晚中新世晚期发生了较为明显的区域性分化,分化为东部地区以适应潮湿的较为封闭的动物群落与西部地区适应干旱的开阔环境的群落,这种分异可能与东亚夏季风的加强密切相关; 青藏高原及其周边地区化石类群的扩散与交流资料也表明由青藏高原隆升而形成的地理阻隔也可能发生在该时期;上新世哺乳动物群落演化表现出对于持续的干旱化气候背景的适应,而晚上新世某些类群的分异与主导地位的确立与该时期气候环境背景的剧烈震荡相一致。由于化石资料的不完整,时段分布的不均一,以及地理分布区域的局限,全面认识中国晚新近纪哺乳动物群落组成以及与环境变化的关系尚有很长的一段历程。     

A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales

Novel climates – emerging conditions with no analog in the observational record – are an open problem in ecological modeling. Detecting extrapolation into novel conditions is a critical step in evaluating bioclimatic projections of how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change. However, biologically informed novelty detection methods remain elusive for many modeling algorithms. To assist with bioclimatic model design and evaluation, we present a first‐approximation assessment of general novelty based on a simple and consistent characterization of climate. We build on the seminal global analysis of Williams et al. (2007 PNAS, 104, 5738) by assessing of end‐of‐21st‐century novelty for North America at high spatial resolution and by refining their standardized Euclidean distance into an intuitive Mahalanobian metric called sigma dissimilarity. Like this previous study, we found extensive novelty in end‐of‐21st‐century projections for the warm southern margin of the continent as well as the western Arctic. In addition, we detected localized novelty in lower topographic positions at all latitudes: By the end of the 21st century, novel climates are projected to emerge at low elevations in 80% and 99% of ecoregions in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, respectively. Novel climates are limited to 7% of the continent's area in RCP4.5, but are much more extensive in RCP8.5 (40% of area). These three risk factors for novel climates – regional susceptibility, topographic position, and the magnitude of projected climate change – represent a priori evaluation criteria for the credibility of bioclimatic projections. Our findings indicate that novel climates can emerge in any landscape. Interpreting climatic novelty in the context of nonlinear biological responses to climate is an important challenge for future research.     

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world''s flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.