Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances

For species at risk, it is important that demographic models be consistent with our most recent knowledge because alternate model versions can have differing predictions for wildlife and natural resource management. To establish and maintain this consistency, we can compare predicted model values to current or past observations and demographic knowledge. When novel predictor information becomes available, testing for consistency between modeled and observed values ensures the best models are used for robust, evidence-based, wildlife management. We combine novel information on the extent of historical disturbance regimes (industrial and fire) to an existing demographic model and predict historical and projected demographics of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Exploring 6 simulation experiments across 5 populations in Alberta, Canada, we identify the relative importance of industrial disturbance, fire, and population density to observed population size and growth rate. We confirm the onset of significant declines across all 5 populations began approximately 30 years ago, demonstrate these declines have been consistent, and conclude they are more likely due to industrial disturbance from the oil and gas sector within contemporary population ranges than historical fire regimes. These findings reinforce recent research on the cause of woodland caribou declines. Testing for consistency between observations and models prescribed for species recovery is paramount for assessing the cause of declines, projecting population trends, and refining recovery strategies for effective wildlife management. We provide a novel simulation method for conducting these tests. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

DNA‐based approaches for evaluating historical demography in terrestrial vertebrates

Contemporary DNA sequences can provide information about the historical demography of a species. However, different molecular markers are informative under different circumstances. In particular, mitochondrial (mt)DNA is uniparentally inherited and haploid in most vertebrates and thus has a smaller effective population size than diploid, biparentally inherited nuclear (n)DNA. Here, we review the characteristics of mtDNA and nDNA in the context of historical demography. In particular, we address how their contrasting rates of evolution and sex‐biased dispersal can lead to different demographic inferences. We do so in the context of an extensive review of the vertebrate literature that describes the use of mtDNA and nDNA sequence data in demographic reconstruction. We discuss the effects of coalescence, effective population size, substitution rates, and sex‐biased dispersal on informative timeframes and expected patterns of genetic differentiation. We argue that mtDNA variationin species with male‐biased dispersal can imply deviations from neutrality that do not reflect actual population expansion or selection. By contrast, mtDNA can be more informative when coalescence has occurred within the recent past, which appears to be the case with many vertebrates. We also compare the application and interpretation of demographic and neutrality test statistics in historical demography studies. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 112 , 367–386.     

Historical demography of a wild lemur population (Propithecus verreauxi) in southwest Madagascar

The human colonization of Madagascar is associated with the extinction of numerous lemur species. However, the degree to which humans have negatively influenced the historical population dynamics of extant lemur species is not well understood. This study employs genetic and demographic analyses to estimate demographic parameters relating to the historical population dynamics of a wild lemur population, Verreaux’s sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi). The genetic analyses are used to determine whether this population experienced a historically recent (i.e., within the last 2000 years) population bottleneck, as well as to estimate the historical population growth rate and the timing of any changes in population size in the past. In addition, a retrospective demographic analysis is used to determine sources of variation and covariation in the sifaka life cycle and how variation in life-cycle transitions contributes to variation in population growth rate. The genetic analyses indicate that the sifaka population did not experience a recent population bottleneck; however, the historical population growth rate was negative, indicating that the ancestral population size was much larger than the current size. The timing of the ancestral population decline has a point estimate of 2300 years ago, but with large credible intervals: 3611–1736 years ago. This point estimate corresponds with the first evidence for human arrival to Madagascar. Climatic variation has also likely influenced past (and current) population dynamics due to stochastic annual rainfall patterns and climatic desiccation, the latter of which began in southwestern Madagascar around 4000 years ago. Variation in the survival of 2-year-old animals as well as large adult females makes the largest contribution to variation in population growth rate. In the absence of more explicit models pertaining to historical population dynamics, it is difficult to attribute the negative population growth rate of this species solely to a single factor (e.g., hunting, habitat destruction).     

The Amazon River system as an ecological barrier driving genetic differentiation of the pink dolphin (Inia geoffrensis)

The pink dolphin (Inia geoffrensis) is widely distributed along the Amazon and Orinoco basins, covering an area of approximately 7 million km². Previous morphological and genetic studies have proposed the existence of at least two evolutionary significant units: one distributed across the Orinoco and Amazon basins and another confined to the Bolivian Amazon. The presence of barriers in the riverine environment has been suggested to play a significant role in shaping present‐day patterns of ecological and genetic structure for this species. In the present study, we examined the phylogeographic structure, lineage divergence time and historical demography using mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequences in different pink dolphin populations distributed in large and small spatial scales, including two neighbouring Brazilian Amazon populations. mtDNA control region (CR) analysis revealed that the Brazilian haplotypes occupy an intermediate position compared to three previously studied geographic locations: the Colombian Amazon, the Colombian Orinoco, and the Bolivian Amazon. On a local scale, we have identified a pattern of maternal isolation between two neighbouring populations from Brazil. Six mtDNA CR haplotypes were identified in Brazil with no sharing between the two populations, as well as specific cytochrome b (cyt b) haplotypes identified in each locality. In addition, we analyzed autosomal microsatellites to investigate male‐mediated gene flow and demographic changes within the study area in Brazil. Data analysis of 14 microsatellite loci failed to detect significant population subdivision, suggesting that male‐mediated gene flow may maintain homogeneity between these two locations. Moreover, both mtDNA and microsatellite data indicate a major demographic collapse within Brazil in the late Pleistocene. Bayesian skyline plots (BSP) of mtDNA data revealed a stable population for Colombian and Brazilian Amazon lineages through time, whereas a population decline was demonstrated in the Colombian Orinoco lineage. Moreover, BSP and Tajima's D and Fu's F_s tests revealed a recent population expansion exclusively in the Bolivian sample. Finally, we estimated that the diversification of the Inia sp. lineage began in the Late Pliocene (approximately 3.1 Mya) and continued throughout the Pleistocene. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102 , 812–827.     

Latitude drives diversification in Madagascar's endemic dry forest rodent Eliurus myoxinus (subfamily Nesomyinae)

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed for the historical processes governing the rich endemism of Madagascar's biodiversity. The ‘watershed model’ suggests that drier climates in the recent geological past have resulted in the contraction of forests around major watersheds, thereby defining areas of endemism. We test whether this hypothesis explains phylogeographical patterns in a dry forest‐dependent rodent, Eliurus myoxinus, an endemic species widely distributed through western Madagascar. We sequenced the mitochondrial cytochrome b locus and nuclear introns of the β‐fibrinogen and the growth hormone receptor genes for E. myoxinus. Using a parametric bootstrapping approach, we tested whether the mitochondrial gene tree data fit expectations of local differentiation given the watershed model. We additionally estimated population differentiation and historical demographic parameters, and reconstructed the spatial history of E. myoxinus to highlight spatial and temporal patterns of differentiation. The data do not support the watershed model as a clear explanation for the genetic patterns of diversity within extant E. myoxinus populations. We find striking patterns of latitudinal genetic structure within western Madagascar, and indicate possible roles for environmental and ecological gradients along this axis in generating phylogeographical diversity. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 110 , 500–517.     

Conservation genetics of the endangered red deer from Sardinia and Mesola with further remarks on the phylogeography of Cervus elaphus corsicanus

Red deer Cervus elaphus of the endangered populations from Sardinia and Mesola Wood, northern Italy, were analysed for genetic variation at 531 bp of the mitochondrial control region and 12 polymorphic nuclear microsatellite loci. A phylogenetic analysis was conducted including additional data from the literature to gain insight into the phylogeographical origin of the Sardinian subspecies C. e. corsicanus . Microsatellite variation was low in both populations but Sardinia showed comparatively high variability at the control region. Management recommendations are discussed. In particular, the Mesola red deer, the only remaining indigenous Italian population, ought to be managed to increase the effective population size and should be subdivided into two or more populations. As to the phylogeography of the Sardinian population, microsatellite data favoured mainland Italy as the place of origin in that Sardinia and Mesola showed the smallest distance values and were paired together in trees with high bootstrap support. However, the mitochondrial data only partially confirmed this conclusion but showed great similarity between Sardinian and Spanish red deer. Possible explanations for this discrepancy and general limits of mitochondrial sequences in resolving demographic and biogeographical processes of the recent past are discussed.  © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2006, 88 , 691–701.     

Inferring population decline and expansion from microsatellite data: a simulation-based evaluation of the Msvar method

Reconstructing the demographic history of populations is a central issue in evolutionary biology. Using likelihood-based methods coupled with Monte Carlo simulations, it is now possible to reconstruct past changes in population size from genetic data. Using simulated data sets under various demographic scenarios, we evaluate the statistical performance of Msvar, a full-likelihood Bayesian method that infers past demographic change from microsatellite data. Our simulation tests show that Msvar is very efficient at detecting population declines and expansions, provided the event is neither too weak nor too recent. We further show that Msvar outperforms two moment-based methods (the M-ratio test and Bottleneck) for detecting population size changes, whatever the time and the severity of the event. The same trend emerges from a compilation of empirical studies. The latest version of Msvar provides estimates of the current and the ancestral population size and the time since the population started changing in size. We show that, in the absence of prior knowledge, Msvar provides little information on the mutation rate, which results in biased estimates and/or wide credibility intervals for each of the demographic parameters. However, scaling the population size parameters with the mutation rate and scaling the time with current population size, as coalescent theory requires, significantly improves the quality of the estimates for contraction but not for expansion scenarios. Finally, our results suggest that Msvar is robust to moderate departures from a strict stepwise mutation model.     

Demographic and genetic collapses in spatially structured populations: insights from a long‐term survey in wild fish metapopulations

Unraveling the relationship between demographic declines and genetic changes over time is of critical importance to predict the persistence of at‐risk populations and to propose efficient conservation plans. This is particularly relevant in spatially structured populations (i.e. metapopulations) in which the spatial arrangement of local populations can modulate both demographic and genetic changes. We used ten‐year demo‐genetic monitoring to test 1) whether demographic declines were associated with genetic diversity declines and 2) whether the spatial structure of a metapopulation can weaken or reinforce these demographic and genetic temporal trends. We continuously surveyed, over time and across their entire range, two metapopulations of an endemic freshwater fish species Leuciscus burdigalensis: one metapopulation that had experienced a recent demographic decline and a second metapopulation that was stable over time. In the declining metapopulation, the number of alleles rapidly decreased, the inbreeding coefficient increased, and a genetic bottleneck emerged over time. In contrast, genetic indices were constant over time in the stable metapopulation. We further show that, in the declining metapopulation, demographic and genetic declines were not homogeneously distributed across the metapopulation. We notably identify one local population situated downstream as a ‘reservoir’ of individuals and genetic variability that dampens both the demographic and genetic declines measured at the metapopulation level. We demonstrate the usefulness of long‐term monitoring that combines both genetic and demographic parameters to understand and predict temporal population fluctuations of at‐risk species living in a metapopulation context.     

Microsatellite DNA analysis of northern pike (Esox lucius L.) populations: insights into the genetic structure and demographic history of a genetically depauperate species

The northern pike Esox lucius L. is a freshwater fish exhibiting pronounced population subdivision and low genetic variability. However, there is limited knowledge on phylogeographical patterns within the species, and it is not known whether the low genetic variability reflects primarily current low effective population sizes or historical bottlenecks. We analysed six microsatellite loci in ten populations from Europe and North America. Genetic variation was low, with the average number of alleles within populations ranging from 2.3 to 4.0 per locus. Genetic differentiation among populations was high (overall θ_ST = 0.51; overall ρ_ST = 0.50). Multidimensional scaling analysis of genetic distances between populations and spatial analysis of molecular variance suggested a single phylogeographical race within the sampled populations from northern Europe, whereas North American and southern European populations were highly distinct. A population from Ireland was monomorphic at all loci, presumably reflecting founder events associated with introduction of the species to the island in the sixteenth century. Bayesian analysis of demographic parameters showed differences in θ (a product of effective population size and mutation rate) among populations from large and small water bodies, but the relative differences in θ were smaller than expected, which could reflect population subdivision within the larger water bodies. Finally, the analyses showed drastic population declines on a time scale of several thousand years within European populations, which we ascribe to either glacial bottlenecks or postglacial founder events.  © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2005, 84 , 91–101.     

Effects of population size and isolation on the genetic structure of the East African mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster (Aves)

Habitat size, quality and isolation determine the genetic structure and diversity of populations and may influence their evolutionary potential and vulnerability to stochastic events. Small and isolated populations are subject to strong genetic drift and can lose much of their genetic diversity due to stochastic fixation and loss of alleles. The mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster, a cloud forest bird species, is exclusively found in the high mountains of East Africa. We analysed 13 polymorphic microsatellites for 213 individuals of this species that were sampled at different points in time in three mountain massifs differing in habitat size, isolation and habitat degradation. We analysed the genetic differentiation among mountain populations and estimated the effective population sizes. Our results indicate three mountain‐specific genetic clusters. Time cohorts did not show genetic divergences, suggesting that populations are large enough to prevent strong drift effects. Effective population sizes were higher in larger and geographically interconnected habitat patches. Our findings underline the relevance of ecological barriers even for mobile species and show the importance of investigating different estimators of population size, including both approaches based on single and multiple time‐points of sampling, for the inference of the demographic status of a population. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 828–836.     

Effect of oceanographic barriers and overfishing on the population genetic structure of the European spiny lobster (Palinurus elephas)

Defining population structure and genetic diversity levels is of the utmost importance for developing efficient conservation strategies. Overfishing has caused mean annual catches of the European spiny lobster (Palinurus elephas) to decrease alarmingly along its distribution area. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive studies aiming to evaluate the genetic health of the exploited populations. The present study is based on a set of ten nuclear markers amplified in 331 individuals from ten different localities covering most of P. elephas distribution area. Samples from Atlantic and Mediterranean basins showed small but significant differences, indicating that P. elephas populations do not behave as a single panmictic unit but form two partially‐overlapping groups. Despite intense overfishing, our dataset did not recover a recent bottleneck signal, and instead showed a large and stable historical effective size. This result could be accounted for by specific life‐history traits (reproduction and longevity) and the limitations of molecular markers in covering recent timescales for nontemporal samples. The findings of the present study emphasize the need to integrate information on effective population sizes and life‐history parameters when evaluating population connectivity levels from genetic data. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 407–418.     

Mid‐Holocene decline in African buffalos inferred from Bayesian coalescent‐based analyses of microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA

Genetic studies concerned with the demographic history of wildlife species can help elucidate the role of climate change and other forces such as human activity in shaping patterns of divergence and distribution. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) declined dramatically during the rinderpest pandemic in the late 1800s, but little is known about the earlier demographic history of the species. We analysed genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci and a 302‐bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to infer past demographic changes in buffalo populations from East Africa. Two Bayesian coalescent‐based methods as well as traditional bottleneck tests were applied to infer detailed dynamics in buffalo demographic history. No clear genetic signature of population declines related to the rinderpest pandemic could be detected. However, Bayesian coalescent modelling detected a strong signal of African buffalo population declines in the order of 75–98%, starting in the mid‐Holocene (approximately 3–7000 years ago). The signature of decline was remarkably consistent using two different coalescent‐based methods and two types of molecular markers. Exploratory analyses involving various prior assumptions did not seriously affect the magnitude or timing of the inferred population decline. Climate data show that tropical Africa experienced a pronounced transition to a drier climate approximately 4500 years ago, concurrent with the buffalo decline. We therefore propose that the mid‐Holocene aridification of East Africa caused a major decline in the effective population size of the buffalo, a species reliant on moist savannah habitat for its existence.     

Estimating past and future male loss in three Zambian lion populations

African lions (Panthera leo) are declining continent-wide, with protected area populations subject to a variety of anthropogenic effects. Zambia contains viable lion populations of considerable importance for photographic and hunting tourism, but long-term lion demographic data do not exist to guide recent management directives and population projections under different strategies. We described population size, as well as age and sex structure of lions in 3 Zambian national park populations bordering hunting areas, and found them to be male-depleted relative to other systems. We then estimated rates of adult male loss leading to male depletion in these populations and the effect of different future hunting management options on population characteristics. Predictions from matrix population models constructed within a Bayesian framework confirmed that the observed population structure was likely due to high rates of adult male loss and that instituting age limits on male harvests with quota reductions would reduce male depletion, improve tourism by providing older and more abundant males, and slightly increase population size. Reducing male mortality from wire snare poaching would also result in similar demographic impacts, and in concert with changes in hunting regulations would substantially improve the quality and quantity of adult male lions. However, model results varied depending on whether we assumed historical population stability. Predictions assuming negative historical growth rate indicated that substantially more conservative lion harvest management is warranted. We discuss the relevance of these findings for maintaining viable lion populations in and around protected areas in Zambia. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Naturally rare versus newly rare: demographic inferences on two timescales inform conservation of Galápagos giant tortoises

Long‐term population history can influence the genetic effects of recent bottlenecks. Therefore, for threatened or endangered species, an understanding of the past is relevant when formulating conservation strategies. Levels of variation at neutral markers have been useful for estimating local effective population sizes (N_e) and inferring whether population sizes increased or decreased over time. Furthermore, analyses of genotypic, allelic frequency, and phylogenetic information can potentially be used to separate historical from recent demographic changes. For 15 populations of Galápagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis sp.), we used 12 microsatellite loci and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial control region and a nuclear intron, to reconstruct demographic history on shallow (past ~100 generations, ~2500 years) and deep (pre‐Holocene, >10 thousand years ago) timescales. At the deep timescale, three populations showed strong signals of growth, but with different magnitudes and timing, indicating different underlying causes. Furthermore, estimated historical N_e of populations across the archipelago showed no correlation with island age or size, underscoring the complexity of predicting demographic history a priori. At the shallow timescale, all populations carried some signature of a genetic bottleneck, and for 12 populations, point estimates of contemporary N_e were very small (i.e., < 50). On the basis of the comparison of these genetic estimates with published census size data, N_e generally represented ~0.16 of the census size. However, the variance in this ratio across populations was considerable. Overall, our data suggest that idiosyncratic and geographically localized forces shaped the demographic history of tortoise populations. Furthermore, from a conservation perspective, the separation of demographic events occurring on shallow versus deep timescales permits the identification of naturally rare versus newly rare populations; this distinction should facilitate prioritization of management action.     

The demography of extinction in eastern North American birds

Species are being lost at an unprecedented rate during the Anthropocene. Progress has been made in clarifying how species traits influence their propensity to go extinct, but the role historical demography plays in species loss or persistence is unclear. In eastern North America, five charismatic landbirds went extinct last century, and the causes of their extinctions have been heavily debated. Although these extinctions are most often attributed to post-colonial human activity, other factors such as declining ancestral populations prior to European colonization could have made these species particularly susceptible. We used population genomic data from these extinct birds and compared them with those from four codistributed extant species. We found extinct species harboured lower genetic diversity and effective population sizes than extant species, but both extinct and non-extinct birds had similar demographic histories of population expansion. These demographic patterns are consistent with population size changes associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. The lack of support for overall population declines during the Pleistocene corroborates the view that, although species that went extinct may have been vulnerable due to low diversity or small population size, their disappearance was driven by human activities in the Anthropocene.     

Genomic inference accurately predicts the timing and severity of a recent bottleneck in a nonmodel insect population

The analysis of molecular data from natural populations has allowed researchers to answer diverse ecological questions that were previously intractable. In particular, ecologists are often interested in the demographic history of populations, information that is rarely available from historical records. Methods have been developed to infer demographic parameters from genomic data, but it is not well understood how inferred parameters compare to true population history or depend on aspects of experimental design. Here, we present and evaluate a method of SNP discovery using RNA sequencing and demographic inference using the program δaδi, which uses a diffusion approximation to the allele frequency spectrum to fit demographic models. We test these methods in a population of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas gillettii. This population was intentionally introduced to Gothic, Colorado in 1977 and has as experienced extreme fluctuations including bottlenecks of fewer than 25 adults, as documented by nearly annual field surveys. Using RNA sequencing of eight individuals from Colorado and eight individuals from a native population in Wyoming, we generate the first genomic resources for this system. While demographic inference is commonly used to examine ancient demography, our study demonstrates that our inexpensive, all‐in‐one approach to marker discovery and genotyping provides sufficient data to accurately infer the timing of a recent bottleneck. This demographic scenario is relevant for many species of conservation concern, few of which have sequenced genomes. Our results are remarkably insensitive to sample size or number of genomic markers, which has important implications for applying this method to other nonmodel systems.     

Genetically and geographically isolated lineages of a tropical bat (Chiroptera: Molossidae) show demographic stability over the late Pleistocene

The newly described molossid bat, Chaerephon atsinanana Goodman et al., 2010, endemic to eastern Madagascar, shows notably high levels of phylogeographic and genetic structure compared with allopatric Chaerephon leucogaster Grandidier, 1869 from western Madagascar. Such highly significant structuring of haplotypes among altitudinally and latitudinally stratified population groups is contrary to the expected panmixia in strong flying bats. The null model of concordance in historical demographic patterns across these two Chaerephon species was not supported. Mismatch and Bayesian skyline analyses indicated ancient stable C. atsinanana populations of constant size during the last two major Pleistocene glacial periods, making retreat into and expansion from glacial refugia an unlikely explanation for such high levels of structure, in accordance with expectations for tropical bats. Analyses were consistent with post‐refugial population expansion in the less diverse and structured C. leucogaster during the end of the last Pleistocene glacial period. We hypothesise that the pronounced genetic structuring in C. atsinanana may result from female philopatry. Furthermore, differing demographic histories of the two species may have been shaped by differing climate or habitat preferences, consistent with evidence from MaxEnt ecological niche modelling, which shows differences in variables influencing the current predicted distributions. Fossil Quaternary pollen deposits further indicate greater stability in past climatic patterns in eastern versus western Madagascar. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 18–40.     

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (N_e) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical N_e from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical N_e were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.     

Long‐term ‘islands’ in the landscape: low gene flow,effective population size and genetic divergence in the shrub Hakea oldfieldii (Proteaceae)

The genetic structure of disjunct populations is determined by founding genetic properties, demographic processes, gene flow, drift and local selection. We aim to identify the genetic consequences of natural population disjunction at regional and local scales in Hakea oldfieldii using nuclear and plastid markers to investigate long‐term effective population sizes and gene flow, and patterns of diversity and divergence, among populations. Regional divergence was significant as shown by a consistent pattern in principal coordinates, neighbor‐joining and Bayesian analyses, but divergence at the local level was also significant with localized distribution of plastid haplotypes and populations clustering separately in Bayesian analyses. Historical, recent and first‐generation gene flow was low, suggesting that recent habitat fragmentation has not reduced gene migration significantly. Genetic bottlenecks were detected in three populations. Long‐term effective population size was significantly correlated with the number of alleles/locus and observed heterozygosity, but not with census population size, suggesting that the loss of diversity is associated with long‐term changes rather than recent fragmentation. Inbreeding coefficients were significant in only three populations, suggesting that the loss of diversity is linked to drift and bottlenecks associated with demographic processes (local extinction by fires) rather than inbreeding. Historical disjunction as a result of specific ecological requirements, contraction of habitats following drying during the Pleistocene, low gene flow and changes in population size are likely to have been important forces driving divergence through isolation by distance and drift. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 319–334.