Expertise in expert systems: knowledge acquisition for biological expert systems

In this paper it is argued that an expert system requires morethan factual knowledge before it can display expertise in agiven domain. The additional knowledge consists of the heuristicsor ‘rules of thumb’ used by an expert to manipulateand interpret the factual knowledge. The knowledge acquisitionphase of an expert system project involves determining the factualknowledge (which may be obtained from published sources) andthe heuristics used by an expert to manipulate that knowledge-theseheuristics can only be obtained from an expert. In reviewingexisting biological expert systems it is apparent that manycontain only the factual knowledge relating to the domain, andlack the heuristics that enable such systems to show expertise.This paper reviews a number of knowledge acquisition techniqueswhich could be used for acquiring heuristic knowledge and discusseswhen their use is appropriate. The knowledge acquisition techniquesdiscussed are those suitable for the development of small-scaleexpert systems as these are most likely to be of interest tobiologists. The techniques include the use of questionnaires,interview techniques and protocol analysis; particular emphasisis placed on a mod cation to the ‘twenty questions’interview technique which was developed specifically to elicittaxonomic knowledge relating to water mite identification.     

Models for forest ecosystem management: a European perspective

BACKGROUND: Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies. SCOPE: Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education. CONCLUSIONS: In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally well.     

Dysmorphology and mental retardation: molecular cytogenetic studies in dysmorphic mentally retarded patients

In an institutionalised population of 471 mentally retarded adult residents (436 males and 35 females), 18 patients (16 males and 2 females) with dysmorphic features were selected to perform FISH studies by using subtelomeric probes to discover cryptic terminal deletions or duplications, undetectable with standard banding techniques. In the 13 investigated patients, no abnormalities were found with a selected battery of subtelomeric probes. The results of cryptic chromosomal rearrangement studies are variable but the frequency of positive diagnostic findings seems to be lower than previously expected.     

The European bitterling: a model for oviposition decision

For oviparous species, oviposition decisions can have significant fitness consequences. The European bitterling ( Rhodeus sericeus ) is a cyprinid fish that lays its eggs on the gills of freshwater mussels. Because bitterling use a discrete spawning site that can be readily manipulated, they are unusually amenable to field and laboratory studies aimed at understanding the adaptiveness and consequences of oviposition decisions. Here I present data demonstrating the adaptiveness of oviposition decisions by female bitterling, and link these decisions, using game‐theory models, with bitterling population dynamics. I explain the proximate cues used by females in making oviposition choices, and how these respond to environmental variables. I also show how the oviposition decisions of males relate to the risk of sperm competition in mussels, and propose that oviposition choices may represent an inter‐sexual conflict in bitterling. Finally, I present behavioural and genetic data from mesocosm experiments to show the implications of global and local male densities for female oviposition opportunities, and consider the consequences for bitterling population dynamics.     

Evaluating the Connectivity of a Protected Areas' Network under the Prism of Global Change: The Efficiency of the European Natura 2000 Network for Four Birds of Prey

Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve network consists of more than 26000 sites covering more than 17% of EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency to mitigate the detrimental effects of land use and climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined the potential current and future geographical ranges of four birds of prey under scenarios of both land use and climate changes. By using graph theory, we examined how the current Natura 2000 network will perform in regard to the conservation of these species. This approach determines the importance of a site in regard to the total network and its connectivity. We found that sites becoming unsuitable due to climate change are not a random sample of the network, but are less connected and contribute less to the overall connectivity than the average site and thus their loss does not disrupt the full network. Hence, the connectivity of the remaining network changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight the need to establish species-specific management plans with flexible conservation strategies ensuring protection under potential future range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted to disappear from the southern part of its range and to become restricted to northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, Aquila chrysaetos, and Neophron percnopterus are predicted to locally lose some suitable sites; hence, some isolated small populations may become extinct. However, their geographical range and metapopulation structure will remain relatively unaffected throughout Europe. These species would benefit more from an improved habitat quality and management of the existing network of protected areas than from increased connectivity or assisted migration.     

Common definition for categories of clinical research: a prerequisite for a survey on regulatory requirements by the European Clinical Research Infrastructures Network (ECRIN)

Background

Idiopathic recurrent miscarriage is defined as 3 consecutive pregnancy losses with no contributing features found on investigations. At present there are no treatments of proven efficacy for idiopathic recurrent miscarriage. Uterine natural killer (uNK) cells, the most predominant leucocyte in the endometrium are adjacent to foetal trophoblast cells and thought to be involved in implantation. The exact mechanisms of how uNK cells affect implantation are not clear but are probably through the regulation of angiogenesis. Multiple studies have shown an association between high density of uterine natural killer cells and recurrent miscarriage. We have shown that prednisolone reduces the number of uNK cells in the endometrium. The question remains as to whether reducing the number of uNK cells improves pregnancy outcome.

Methods

We propose a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled trial of prednisolone with a pilot phase to assess feasibility of recruitment, integrity of trial procedures, and to generate data to base future power calculations. The primary aim is to investigate whether prednisolone therapy during the first trimester of pregnancy is able to improve live birth rates in patients with idiopathic recurrent miscarriage and raised uNK cells in the endometrium. Secondary outcomes include conception rate, karyotype of miscarriage, miscarriages (first and second trimester), stillbirths, pregnancy complications, gestational age at delivery, congenital abnormality and side effects of steroids. The trial has 2 stages: i) screening of non-pregnant women and ii) randomisation of the pregnant cohort. All patients who fit the inclusion criteria (<40 years old, ≥3 consecutive miscarriages with no cause found and no contraindications to prednisolone therapy) will be asked to consent to an endometrial biopsy in the mid-luteal phase to assess their levels of uNK cells. Women with high levels of uNK cells (≥5%), will be randomised to either prednisolone or placebo when a pregnancy is confirmed. Follow-up includes 2 weekly ultrasound scans in the first trimester, an anomaly scan at 20 weeks gestation, growth scans at 28 and 34 weeks gestation and a postnatal follow-up at 6 weeks.

Trial Registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN28090716