Centres of plant endemism in China: places for survival or for speciation?

Aim This study aimed to identify the ‘centres of endemism’ of the Chinese spermatophyte flora in order to indirectly detect the locations of past glacial refugia. The role of these areas as places for plant survival (‘plant museums’) and/or areas for plant evolution and speciation (‘plant cradles’) was also assessed. Location China. Methods Distribution patterns of 555 plant endemic taxa, taken as a representative sample of the Chinese endemic flora, were mapped on a 1° × 1° latitude/longitude grid. For each grid cell, species richness (total count of species) and weighted richness (down‐weighting each species by the inverse of its range) were calculated. Grid cells within the top 5% of highest values of weighted richness were considered centres of endemism. Based on available information, all plant taxa included in this study were classified into palaeoendemics and neoendemics, and their distributional patterns were represented separately. Results Twenty areas of endemism were identified in central and southern China, roughly corresponding to mountain ranges, including the Hengduan and Daxue Mountains, the Yungui Plateau, central China Mountains, the Nanling Mountains, eastern China Mountains, and Hainan and Taiwan. Although almost all centres of endemism contained both palaeoendemic and neoendemic taxa, considerable differences in their respective numbers were recorded, with the majority of neoendemics on the eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau (Hengduan Mountains sensu lato) but more palaeoendemics towards the east. Main conclusions Owing to their varied topography, the mountainous regions of central and southern China have provided long‐term stable habitats, which allowed palaeoendemics to persist and facilitated the process of speciation. Contrasting patterns between the palaeoendemics and neoendemics within refugia might be attributable to the geological and tectonic history of specific areas. The eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau clearly constitutes the ‘evolutionary front’ of China, probably as a result of the uninterrupted uplift of the plateau since the late Neogene. In contrast, the tectonic stability of central and southern China during the Tertiary may have facilitated the persistence of relict plant lineages.     

Expertise, wisdom and moral philosophers: a response to Gesang

In a recent issue of Bioethics, Bernard Gesang asks whether a moral philosopher possesses greater moral expertise than a non-philosopher, and his answer is a qualified yes, based not so much on his infallible access to the truth, but on the quality of his theoretically-informed moral justifications. I reject Gesang's claim that there is such a thing as moral expertise, although the moral philosopher may well make a valid contribution to the ethics committee as a concerned and educated citizen. I suggest that wisdom is a lot more interesting to examine than moral expertise. Again, however, moral philosophers have no monopoly on wisdom, and the study of philosophy may even impede its cultivation.     

Dysmorphology and mental retardation: molecular cytogenetic studies in dysmorphic mentally retarded patients

In an institutionalised population of 471 mentally retarded adult residents (436 males and 35 females), 18 patients (16 males and 2 females) with dysmorphic features were selected to perform FISH studies by using subtelomeric probes to discover cryptic terminal deletions or duplications, undetectable with standard banding techniques. In the 13 investigated patients, no abnormalities were found with a selected battery of subtelomeric probes. The results of cryptic chromosomal rearrangement studies are variable but the frequency of positive diagnostic findings seems to be lower than previously expected.     

Expertise in expert systems: knowledge acquisition for biological expert systems

In this paper it is argued that an expert system requires morethan factual knowledge before it can display expertise in agiven domain. The additional knowledge consists of the heuristicsor ‘rules of thumb’ used by an expert to manipulateand interpret the factual knowledge. The knowledge acquisitionphase of an expert system project involves determining the factualknowledge (which may be obtained from published sources) andthe heuristics used by an expert to manipulate that knowledge-theseheuristics can only be obtained from an expert. In reviewingexisting biological expert systems it is apparent that manycontain only the factual knowledge relating to the domain, andlack the heuristics that enable such systems to show expertise.This paper reviews a number of knowledge acquisition techniqueswhich could be used for acquiring heuristic knowledge and discusseswhen their use is appropriate. The knowledge acquisition techniquesdiscussed are those suitable for the development of small-scaleexpert systems as these are most likely to be of interest tobiologists. The techniques include the use of questionnaires,interview techniques and protocol analysis; particular emphasisis placed on a mod cation to the ‘twenty questions’interview technique which was developed specifically to elicittaxonomic knowledge relating to water mite identification.     

Models for forest ecosystem management: a European perspective

BACKGROUND: Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies. SCOPE: Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education. CONCLUSIONS: In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally well.     

Evaluating the Connectivity of a Protected Areas' Network under the Prism of Global Change: The Efficiency of the European Natura 2000 Network for Four Birds of Prey

Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve network consists of more than 26000 sites covering more than 17% of EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency to mitigate the detrimental effects of land use and climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined the potential current and future geographical ranges of four birds of prey under scenarios of both land use and climate changes. By using graph theory, we examined how the current Natura 2000 network will perform in regard to the conservation of these species. This approach determines the importance of a site in regard to the total network and its connectivity. We found that sites becoming unsuitable due to climate change are not a random sample of the network, but are less connected and contribute less to the overall connectivity than the average site and thus their loss does not disrupt the full network. Hence, the connectivity of the remaining network changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight the need to establish species-specific management plans with flexible conservation strategies ensuring protection under potential future range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted to disappear from the southern part of its range and to become restricted to northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, Aquila chrysaetos, and Neophron percnopterus are predicted to locally lose some suitable sites; hence, some isolated small populations may become extinct. However, their geographical range and metapopulation structure will remain relatively unaffected throughout Europe. These species would benefit more from an improved habitat quality and management of the existing network of protected areas than from increased connectivity or assisted migration.     

The European bitterling: a model for oviposition decision

For oviparous species, oviposition decisions can have significant fitness consequences. The European bitterling ( Rhodeus sericeus ) is a cyprinid fish that lays its eggs on the gills of freshwater mussels. Because bitterling use a discrete spawning site that can be readily manipulated, they are unusually amenable to field and laboratory studies aimed at understanding the adaptiveness and consequences of oviposition decisions. Here I present data demonstrating the adaptiveness of oviposition decisions by female bitterling, and link these decisions, using game‐theory models, with bitterling population dynamics. I explain the proximate cues used by females in making oviposition choices, and how these respond to environmental variables. I also show how the oviposition decisions of males relate to the risk of sperm competition in mussels, and propose that oviposition choices may represent an inter‐sexual conflict in bitterling. Finally, I present behavioural and genetic data from mesocosm experiments to show the implications of global and local male densities for female oviposition opportunities, and consider the consequences for bitterling population dynamics.