系统保护规划的理论、方法及关键问题

为了减缓生物多样性丧失的趋势、将有限的保护资源用于关键区域,Margules等提出了系统保护规划(Systematic Conservation Planning)概念和方法,目前该方法已成为国际主流保护规划方法。与传统基于专家决策的保护体系规划方法不同,系统保护规划拥有量化的保护目标、保护成本,并综合考虑保护体系连通性、人为干扰因素,使用优化算法计算,从而获得空间明晰的生物多样性保护体系。在阐述规划理念、规划流程与方法的基础上,重点评述了生物多样性替代指标的选择、保护规划成本的计算、保护目标的设置、规划结果的可靠性评估等关键问题,并结合我国的具体情况,探讨了该方法在我国的应用前景,以期为推进我国生物多样性与生态服务功能的保护做出贡献。     

Systematic conservation planning: Trends and patterns among highly-cited papers

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is a field of conservation biology concerned with the effective allocation of conservation efforts and the implementation of actions aiming to guarantee biodiversity persistence in the long-term and the efficient use of conservation resources. Here, we evaluated the main spatial-temporal trends and patterns among highly-cited papers in SCP. We considered “highly-cited” articles as those papers with at least 100 citations according to Web of Science database. A total of 132 highly-cited articles were published between 1989 and 2014, with the highest frequency at 2006. Papers were published in 25 different scientific journals (with a highlight for Conservation Biology and Biological Conservation) by researchers from 208 institutions and 25 countries (most from Australia and USA). Most of the analytical and methodological studies were carried out in the terrestrial environment, by considering more than one taxonomic group, and at a regional scale. Eleven studies included information on costs (e.g., economic or land use) in the prioritization process, and only one article considered information on other biodiversity dimensions such as phylogenetic diversity. Among analytical papers, 41 included only biodiversity data in the prioritization process, while 16 papers considered data on other features such as ecosystem services, biophysical factors, and vegetation. Furthermore, a plethora of different algorithms and software were used to perform the analyses. By analyzing the top-cited papers, we could track through time the main advances and stages of the development in SCP.     

Climate change and opposing spatial conservation priorities for anuran protection in the Brazilian hotspots

In conservation biogeography, the process of spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) aims to select areas that meet biodiversity targets at a minimum set coverage. Here, we propose a SCP scheme for the highly endemic and diverse anuran fauna of the Atlantic Forest (AF) and Cerrado (CER) South American hotspots under different climate change scenarios. Specifically, we make use of predicted anuran occurrences, built for baseline and future (2050 and 2070) time slices, and address biological and conservation metrics to identify potential priority regions for anuran conservation over time using the software MARXAN. Considering each time slice separately, the percentage area needed for total anuran representation varies at magnitudes of 9.8–10.66% for the AF and 6.4–8.8% for the CER. Pooling all time slices together in the selected conservation network, the identified spatial priorities account for 15.56% and 13.25% of the total AF and CER areas respectively. However, we identified opposing strategies for the anuran spatial conservation prioritization in the AF and CER over the different time periods; the increasing of priority cells across time considering the potential species redistribution under climate change in the AF, and the selection of fewer priority cells in the future than the identified for the baseline climate in the CER. The southeastern AF coast was identified as a priority area for amphibian conservation in this hotspot, as well as some other smaller areas in the northern and southern regions. Priority areas identified in the CER, although patchy distributed across the hotspot, are found in specific central-northern, western, and southeastern regions. The different conservation strategies identified in the present SCP emphasize the need for establishing different conservation efforts according to a sequential scheduling of priority areas that optimizes the long-term conservation goals.     

Biodiversity gains from efficient use of private sponsorship for flagship species conservation

To address the global extinction crisis, both efficient use of existing conservation funding and new sources of funding are vital. Private sponsorship of charismatic ‘flagship’ species conservation represents an important source of new funding, but has been criticized as being inefficient. However, the ancillary benefits of privately sponsored flagship species conservation via actions benefiting other species have not been quantified, nor have the benefits of incorporating such sponsorship into objective prioritization protocols. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset of conservation actions for the 700 most threatened species in New Zealand to examine the potential biodiversity gains from national private flagship species sponsorship programmes. We find that private funding for flagship species can clearly result in additional species and phylogenetic diversity conserved, via conservation actions shared with other species. When private flagship species funding is incorporated into a prioritization protocol to preferentially sponsor shared actions, expected gains can be more than doubled. However, these gains are consistently smaller than expected gains in a hypothetical scenario where private funding could be optimally allocated among all threatened species. We recommend integrating private sponsorship of flagship species into objective prioritization protocols to sponsor efficient actions that maximize biodiversity gains, or wherever possible, encouraging private donations for broader biodiversity goals.     

Conservation biogeography of the Antarctic

Aim

To present a synthesis of past biogeographic analyses and a new approach based on spatially explicit biodiversity information for the Antarctic region to identify biologically distinct areas in need of representation in a protected area network.

Location

Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic.

Methods

We reviewed and summarized published biogeographic studies of the Antarctic. We then developed a biogeographic classification for terrestrial conservation planning in Antarctica by combining the most comprehensive source of Antarctic biodiversity data available with three spatial frameworks: (1) a 200‐km grid, (2) a set of areas based on physical parameters known as the environmental domains of Antarctica and (3) expert‐defined bioregions. We used these frameworks, or combinations thereof, together with multivariate techniques to identify biologically distinct areas.

Results

Early studies of continental Antarctica typically described broad bioregions, with the Antarctic Peninsula usually identified as biologically distinct from continental Antarctica; later studies suggested a more complex biogeography. Increasing complexity also characterizes the sub‐Antarctic and marine realms, with differences among studies often attributable to the focal taxa. Using the most comprehensive terrestrial data available and by combining the groups formed by the environmental domains and expert‐defined bioregions, we were able to identify 15 biologically distinct, ice‐free, Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs), encompassing the continent and close lying islands.

Main conclusions

Ice‐free terrestrial Antarctica comprises several distinct bioregions that are not fully represented in the current Antarctic Specially Protected Area network. Biosecurity measures between these ACBRs should also be developed to prevent biotic homogenization in the region.     

Geographic variation in the age of temperate-zone reptile and amphibian species: Southern Hemisphere species are older

Despite controversy over alternative definitions, the species is the fundamental operational unit of biodiversity, and species are the building-blocks of conservation. But is a ‘species’ from one part of the world the same as a ‘species’ from elsewhere? Our meta-analysis of molecular phylogenetic data reveals that reptile and amphibian species distributed in temperate-zone areas of the Northern Hemisphere are younger than taxa from the Southern Hemisphere, probably reflecting the greater impact of past climatic variation on Northern Hemisphere habitats. Because a species'' age may influence its vulnerability to anthropogenic threats, geographical variation in species ages should be incorporated into conservation planning.     

A phylogenetic perspective on the evolutionary processes of floristic assemblages within a biodiversity hotspot in eastern Asia

Abstract How to maximize the conservation of biodiversity is critical for conservation planning, particularly given rapid habitat loss and global climatic change. The importance of preserving phylogenetic diversity has gained recognition due to its ability to identify some influences of evolutionary history on contemporary patterns of species assemblages that traditional taxonomic richness measures cannot identify. In this study, we evaluate the relationship between taxonomic richness and phylogenetic diversity of angiosperms at genus and species levels and explore the spatial pattern of the residuals of this relationship. We then incorporate data on historical biogeography to understand the process that shaped contemporary floristic assemblages in a global biodiversity hotspot, Yunnan Province, located in southwestern China. We identified a strong correlation between phylogenetic diversity residuals and the biogeographic affinity of the lineages in the extant Yunnan angiosperm flora. Phylogenetic diversity is well correlated with taxonomic richness at both genus and species levels between floras in Yunnan, where two diversity centers of phylogenetic diversity were identified (the northwestern center and the southern center). The northwestern center, with lower phylogenetic diversity than expected based on taxonomic richness, is rich in temperate‐affinity lineages and signifies an area of rapid speciation. The southern center, with higher phylogenetic diversity than predicted by taxonomic richness, contains a higher proportion of lineages with tropical affinity and seems to have experienced high immigration rates. Our results highlight that maximizing phylogenetic diversity with historical interpretation can provide valuable insights into the floristic assemblage of a region and better‐informed decisions can be made to ensure different stages of a region's evolutionary history are preserved.     

Avoiding costly conservation mistakes: the importance of defining actions and costs in spatial priority setting

Background

The typical mandate in conservation planning is to identify areas that represent biodiversity targets within the smallest possible area of land or sea, despite the fact that area may be a poor surrogate for the cost of many conservation actions. It is also common for priorities for conservation investment to be identified without regard to the particular conservation action that will be implemented. This demonstrates inadequate problem specification and may lead to inefficiency: the cost of alternative conservation actions can differ throughout a landscape, and may result in dissimilar conservation priorities.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigate the importance of formulating conservation planning problems with objectives and cost data that relate to specific conservation actions. We identify priority areas in Australia for two alternative conservation actions: land acquisition and stewardship. Our analyses show that using the cost surrogate that most closely reflects the planned conservation action can cut the cost of achieving our biodiversity goals by half. We highlight spatial differences in relative priorities for land acquisition and stewardship in Australia, and provide a simple approach for determining which action should be undertaken where.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study shows that a poorly posed conservation problem that fails to pre-specify the planned conservation action and incorporate cost a priori can lead to expensive mistakes. We can be more efficient in achieving conservation goals by clearly specifying our conservation objective and parameterising the problem with economic data that reflects this objective.     

Integrated landscape approaches to managing social and environmental issues in the tropics: learning from the past to guide the future

Poverty, food insecurity, climate change and biodiversity loss continue to persist as the primary environmental and social challenges faced by the global community. As such, there is a growing acknowledgement that conventional sectorial approaches to addressing often inter‐connected social, environmental, economic and political challenges are proving insufficient. An alternative is to focus on integrated solutions at landscape scales or ‘landscape approaches’. The appeal of landscape approaches has resulted in the production of a significant body of literature in recent decades, yet confusion over terminology, application and utility persists. Focusing on the tropics, we systematically reviewed the literature to: (i) disentangle the historical development and theory behind the framework of the landscape approach and how it has progressed into its current iteration, (ii) establish lessons learned from previous land management strategies, (iii) determine the barriers that currently restrict implementation of the landscape approach and (iv) provide recommendations for how the landscape approach can contribute towards the fulfilment of the goals of international policy processes. This review suggests that, despite some barriers to implementation, a landscape approach has considerable potential to meet social and environmental objectives at local scales while aiding national commitments to addressing ongoing global challenges.     

生物多样性保护的景观规划途径

景观规划设计在生物多样性保护中起着决定性的作用。基于不同的保护哲学,生物多样性保护的景观规划途径主要可分为两种：一是以物种为核心的景观规划途径,另一种是以景观元素为核心和出发点的规划途径。前者首先确定物种,然后根据物种的生态特性来设计景观格局,后者则以各种尺度的景观元素作为保护对象,根据其空间位置和关系设计景观格局。多种空间战略被认为有利于生物多样性的保护,包括保护核心栖息地、建立缓冲区、构筑廊道、增加景观异质性和引入或恢复栖息地。落实这些空间战略必须首先回答选择什么和在什么地方设计上述景观元素的问题。对此,目前尚没有很好的答案。传统的生物保护战略被动地强调现存濒危物种和景观元素的保护,如果将物种运动和生态过程作为一个能动的景观控制过程来对待,我们将会有一种全新的景观规划途径。其中有三个方面的概念对这种新的景观规划途径有启发意义：即景观的空间构型对生态过程的作用,生物进化空间轨迹与景观格局设计及景观阻力与潜在的生态基础设施的设计。景观生态安全格局正是在这些方向上的一个新的探索。     

Ecological forecasts to inform near‐term management of threats to biodiversity

Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.     

What to do in the face of multiple threats? Incorporating dependencies within a return on investment framework for conservation

Aim Our study aimed to determine priority areas for conservation investment with explicit consideration of the impacts of multiple threatening processes, and the dependencies that exist between actions required to abate these threats. Location Australia. Methods We analysed the return on investment for two different management actions aimed at reducing the impact of invasive species on the native fauna and flora of Australia. We focussed on the management of the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) at two spatial scales: across 72 biogeographic regions of Australia and within one high‐priority biogeographic region. We considered each action independently and also explicitly accounted for the option of an integrated fox and rabbit management action. We accounted for the spatial distributions of the threatened species within our analysis and determined how this refined spatial information influenced both the priority areas and the timing of this investment. Results Integrated fox and rabbit management was identified as a higher priority than singular threat abatement in most bioregions, whereas rabbit control alone was the most frequent priority if dependencies between actions were ignored. At the regional scale, funding was entirely directed to integrated action when seven or more species within the priority region were impacted by more than one threat. The total allocation of funding and timing of initial investment remained relatively insensitive to differences in the spatial overlap of species distributions. Main conclusions Our findings indicate that prioritizing conservation actions without explicit consideration of the impacts of multiple threats can reduce the cost‐effectiveness of investments. The benefits expected from investment in abating one threat alone may be overestimated where other processes continue to threaten species persistence. We conclude that future attention should be directed to refining our understanding of the cost‐efficiencies delivered through integrated actions and institutional mechanisms to achieve their delivery.     

Planning for biodiversity conservation based on the knowledge of biologists

To conserve biodiversity, complementary approaches are necessary. Besides using museum data from sightings and specimens, the knowledge of experts can also be employed. Often such valuable information is lost on retirement or death. To investigate the value of this knowledge for nature conservation planning, we sent questionnaires to 124 professional conservationists in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Fifty-two replies illustrated that the historical context biases our concepts of nature and the conservation of biodiversity. Despite an awareness of all the spatial scales, complexities and dynamics of nature, there is still a strong focus on large-sized animals and visibly discrete ecosystems, such as wetlands. Nevertheless, the respondents illustrated that an awareness of infrequently-seen and less well known organisms is increasing. Harnessing this expert knowledge was valuable for conservation planning, but had the weakness that many taxa and localities were neglected. Similar problems arose with data from museum specimens. However, both these approaches were synergistic and highlighted the geographical areas that need far more exploration of their biodiversity. Such information gathering is an important ethical and practical exercise for conserving biodiversity.     

Improving bioregional frameworks for conservation by including mammal distributions

Large identifiable landscape units, such as ecoregions, are used to prioritize global and continental conservation efforts, particularly where biodiversity knowledge is inadequate. Setting biodiversity representation targets using coarse large‐scale biogeographic boundaries, can be inefficient and under‐representative. Even when using fine‐scale biodiversity data, representation deficiencies can occur through misalignment of target distributions with such prioritization frameworks. While this pattern has been recognized, quantitative approaches highlighting misalignments have been lacking, particularly for assemblages of mammal species. We tested the efficacy of Australia's bioregions as a spatial prioritization framework for representing mammal species, within protected areas, in New South Wales. We produced an approach based on mammal assemblages and assessed its performance in representing mammal distributions. Substantial spatial misalignment between New South Wales's bioregions and mammal assemblages was revealed, reflecting deficiencies in the representation of more than half of identified mammal assemblages. Using a systematic approach driven by fine‐scale mammalian data, we compared the efficacy of these two frameworks in securing mammalian representation within protected areas. Of the 61 species, 38 were better represented by the mammalian framework, with remaining species only marginally better represented when guided by bioregions. Overall, the rate at which mammal species were incorporated into the protected area network was higher (5.1% ± 0.6 sd) when guided by mammal assemblages. Guided by bioregions, systematic conservation planning of protected areas may be constrained in realizing its full potential in securing representation for all of Australia's biodiversity. Adapting the boundaries of prioritization frameworks by incorporating amassed information from a broad range of taxa should be of conservation significance.     

Benefits of the ballot box for species conservation

Recent estimates reaffirm that conservation funds are insufficient to meet biodiversity conservation goals. Organisations focused on biodiversity conservation therefore need to capitalise on investments that societies make in environmental protection that provide ancillary benefits to biodiversity. Here, we undertake the first assessment of the potential ancillary benefits from the ballot box in the United States, where citizens vote on referenda to conserve lands for reasons that may not include biodiversity directly but that indirectly might enhance biodiversity conservation. Our results suggest that referenda occur in counties with significantly greater biodiversity than counties chosen at random. We also demonstrate that large potential gains for conservation are possible if the past and likely future outcomes of these ballot box measures are directly incorporated into national‐scale conservation planning efforts. The possible synergies between ballot box measures and other biodiversity conservation efforts offer an under‐utilised resource for supporting conservation.     

Mismatched outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem services: testing the responses of crop pollinators and wild bee biodiversity to habitat enhancement

Supporting ecosystem services and conserving biodiversity may be compatible goals, but there is concern that service‐focused interventions mostly benefit a few common species. We use a spatially replicated, multiyear experiment in four agricultural settings to test if enhancing habitat adjacent to crops increases wild bee diversity and abundance on and off crops. We found that enhanced field edges harbored more taxonomically and functionally abundant, diverse, and compositionally different bee communities compared to control edges. Enhancements did not increase the abundance or diversity of bees visiting crops, indicating that the supply of pollination services was unchanged following enhancement. We find that actions to promote crop pollination improve multiple dimensions of biodiversity, underscoring their conservation value, but these benefits may not be spilling over to crops. More work is needed to identify the conditions that promote effective co‐management of biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long‐term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late‐Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia (‘refugia within refugia’) and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies.     

Unravelling biodiversity,evolution and threats to conservation in the Sahara‐Sahel

Deserts and arid regions are generally perceived as bare and rather homogeneous areas of low diversity. The Sahara is the largest warm desert in the world and together with the arid Sahel displays high topographical and climatic heterogeneity, and has experienced recent and strong climatic oscillations that have greatly shifted biodiversity distribution and community composition. The large size, remoteness and long‐term political instability of the Sahara‐Sahel, have limited knowledge on its biodiversity. However, over the last decade, there have been an increasing number of published scientific studies based on modern geomatic and molecular tools, and broad sampling of taxa of these regions. This review tracks trends in knowledge about biodiversity patterns, processes and threats across the Sahara‐Sahel, and anticipates needs for biodiversity research and conservation. Recent studies are changing completely the perception of regional biodiversity patterns. Instead of relatively low species diversity with distribution covering most of the region, studies now suggest a high rate of endemism and larger number of species, with much narrower and fragmented ranges, frequently limited to micro‐hotspots of biodiversity. Molecular‐based studies are also unravelling cryptic diversity associated with mountains, which together with recent distribution atlases, allows identifying integrative biogeographic patterns in biodiversity distribution. Mapping of multivariate environmental variation (at 1 km × 1 km resolution) of the region illustrates main biogeographical features of the Sahara‐Sahel and supports recently hypothesised dispersal corridors and refugia. Micro‐scale water‐features present mostly in mountains have been associated with local biodiversity hotspots. However, the distribution of available data on vertebrates highlights current knowledge gaps that still apply to a large proportion of the Sahara‐Sahel. Current research is providing insights into key evolutionary and ecological processes, including causes and timing of radiation and divergence for multiple taxa, and associating the onset of the Sahara with diversification processes for low‐mobility vertebrates. Examples of phylogeographic patterns are showing the importance of allopatric speciation in the Sahara‐Sahel, and this review presents a synthetic overview of the most commonly hypothesised diversification mechanisms. Studies are also stressing that biodiversity is threatened by increasing human activities in the region, including overhunting and natural resources prospection, and in the future by predicted global warming. A representation of areas of conflict, landmines, and natural resources extraction illustrates how human activities and regional insecurity are hampering biodiversity research and conservation. Although there are still numerous knowledge gaps for the optimised conservation of biodiversity in the region, a set of research priorities is provided to identify the framework data needed to support regional conservation planning.     

中国生物多样性保护的变革性转变及路径

全球正在经历第六次物种大灭绝。为了应对生物多样性丧失速率日益加快的严峻挑战, 《生物多样性公约》第十届缔约方大会通过了《生物多样性战略计划》(2011-2020年)及20项爱知生物多样性目标。然而, 2019年IPBES全球评估报告表明, 大部分爱知目标可能无法在2020年实现, 因此, 自然保护需要变革性转变。中国虽然在生物多样性保护方面取得了巨大成就, 提出了系统完整的生态文明制度及建立“以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系”的目标, 并通过绿盾行动和环保督察提升了生物多样性保护的重要性, 陆地自然保护地覆盖率也已达到18%, 但仍未有效遏制生物多样性下降的趋势, 物种濒危程度持续加剧。尽管生态文明一系列改革已经做出了变革性转变, 中央层面大力推行生物多样性“主流化”的相关政策, 通过机构改革初步解决了自然保护地“九龙治水”的问题, 在国土空间规划和生态保护红线划定中强调了生物多样性保护的重要性, 但是, 生物多样性保护仍然缺乏系统性的解决策略, 需要在不同层面进一步落实“主流化”, 建立完整的法律体系和统一规范高效的保护机制, 保障保护资金, 明确生物多样性在生产、生活空间中的地位, 打通自然保护成果与经济利益的转化渠道。因此, 中国的生物多样性保护应当借助生态文明建设的历史性机遇, 在保护意识、空间布局和保护行动3个方面充分实现变革性的转变, 借助五位一体总体布局, 采用系统化的解决方法, 进一步整合法律、行政、市场、技术和社会等五方面力量, 提出具体的实现路径, 实现保护意识主流化、保护利用统筹化和保护行动全民化等三方面变革性的转变, 形成高效一体化的机制, 以实现“人与自然和谐相处”的生物多样性保护理想状态。     

Multiple successional pathways in human‐modified tropical landscapes: new insights from forest succession,forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research

Old‐growth tropical forests are being extensively deforested and fragmented worldwide. Yet forest recovery through succession has led to an expansion of secondary forests in human‐modified tropical landscapes (HMTLs). Secondary forests thus emerge as a potential repository for tropical biodiversity, and also as a source of essential ecosystem functions and services in HMTLs. Such critical roles are controversial, however, as they depend on successional, landscape and socio‐economic dynamics, which can vary widely within and across landscapes and regions. Understanding the main drivers of successional pathways of disturbed tropical forests is critically needed for improving management, conservation, and restoration strategies. Here, we combine emerging knowledge from tropical forest succession, forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to identify the main driving forces shaping successional pathways at different spatial scales. We also explore causal connections between land‐use dynamics and the level of predictability of successional pathways, and examine potential implications of such connections to determine the importance of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation in HMTLs. We show that secondary succession (SS) in tropical landscapes is a multifactorial phenomenon affected by a myriad of forces operating at multiple spatio‐temporal scales. SS is relatively fast and more predictable in recently modified landscapes and where well‐preserved biodiversity‐rich native forests are still present in the landscape. Yet the increasing variation in landscape spatial configuration and matrix heterogeneity in landscapes with intermediate levels of disturbance increases the uncertainty of successional pathways. In landscapes that have suffered extensive and intensive human disturbances, however, succession can be slow or arrested, with impoverished assemblages and reduced potential to deliver ecosystem functions and services. We conclude that: (i) succession must be examined using more comprehensive explanatory models, providing information about the forces affecting not only the presence but also the persistence of species and ecological groups, particularly of those taxa expected to be extirpated from HMTLs; (ii) SS research should integrate new aspects from forest fragmentation and landscape ecology research to address accurately the potential of secondary forests to serve as biodiversity repositories; and (iii) secondary forest stands, as a dynamic component of HMTLs, must be incorporated as key elements of conservation planning; i.e. secondary forest stands must be actively managed (e.g. using assisted forest restoration) according to conservation goals at broad spatial scales.