Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996

Various indications for shifts in plant and animal phenology resulting from climate change have been observed in Europe. This analysis of phenological seasons in Germany of more than four decades (1951–96) has several major advantages: (i) a wide and dense geographical coverage of data from the phenological network of the German Weather Service, (ii) the 16 phenophases analysed cover the whole annual cycle and, moreover, give a direct estimate of the length of the growing season for four deciduous tree species. After intensive data quality checks, two different methods – linear trend analyses and comparison of averages of subintervals – were applied in order to determine shifts in phenological seasons in the last 46 years. Results from both methods were similar and reveal a strong seasonal variation. There are clear advances in the key indicators of earliest and early spring (?0.18 to ?0.23 d y^?1) and notable advances in the succeeding spring phenophases such as leaf unfolding of deciduous trees (?0.16 to ?0.08 d y^?1). However, phenological changes are less strong during autumn (delayed by + 0.03 to + 0.10 d y^?1 on average). In general, the growing season has been lengthened by up to ?0.2 d y^?1 (mean linear trends) and the mean 1974–96 growing season was up to 5 days longer than in the 1951–73 period. The spatial variability of trends was analysed by statistical means and shown in maps, but these did not reveal any substantial regional differences. Although there is a high spatial variability, trends of phenological phases at single locations are mirrored by subsequent phases, but they are not necessarily identical. Results for changes in the biosphere with such a high resolution with respect to time and space can rarely be obtained by other methods such as analyses of satellite data.     

Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud‐burst and spring frost risk in north‐west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate

The timing of spring bud‐burst and leaf development in temperate, boreal and Arctic trees and shrubs fluctuates from year to year, depending on meteorological conditions. Over several generations, the sensitivity of bud‐burst to meteorological conditions is subject to selection pressure. The timing of spring bud‐burst is considered to be under opposing evolutionary pressures; earlier bud‐burst increases the available growing season (capacity adaptation) but later bud‐burst decreases the risk of frost damage to actively growing parts (survival adaptation). The optimum trade‐off between these two forms of adaptation may be considered an evolutionarily stable strategy that maximizes the long‐term ecological fitness of a phenotype under a given climate. Rapid changes in climate, as predicted for this century, are likely to exceed the rate at which trees and shrubs can adapt through evolution or migration. Therefore the response of spring phenology will depend not only on future climatic conditions but also on the limits imposed by adaptation to current and historical climate. Using a dataset of bud‐burst dates from twenty‐nine sites in Finland for downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.), we parameterize a simple thermal time bud‐burst model in which the critical temperature threshold for bud‐burst is a function of recent historical climatic conditions and reflects a trade‐off between capacity and survival adaptation. We validate this approach with independent data from eight independent sites outside Finland, and use the parameterized model to predict the response of bud‐burst to future climate scenarios in north‐west Europe. Current strategies for budburst are predicted to be suboptimal for future climates, with bud‐burst generally occurring earlier than the optimal strategy. Nevertheless, exposure to frost risk is predicted to decrease slightly and the growing season is predicted to increase considerably across most of the region. However, in high‐altitude maritime regions exposure to frost risk following bud‐burst is predicted to increase.     

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade⁻¹ in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C⁻¹, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C⁻¹). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r =−0.69, P <0.001).     

Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy

While commonplace in other parts of the world, long‐term and ongoing observations of the phenology of native tree species are rare in North America. We use 14 years of field survey data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest to fit simple models of canopy phenology for three northern hardwood species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum), American beech (Fagus grandifolia), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). These models are then run with historical meteorological data to investigate potential climate change effects on phenology. Development and senescence are quantified using an index that ranges from 0 (dormant, no leaves) to 4 (full, green canopy). Sugar maple is the first species to leaf out in the spring, whereas American beech is the last species to drop its leaves in the fall. Across an elevational range from 250 to 825 m ASL, the onset of spring is delayed by 2.7±0.4 days for every 100 m increase in elevation, which is in reasonable agreement with Hopkin's law. More than 90% of the variation in spring canopy development, and just slightly less than 90% of the variation in autumn canopy senescence, is accounted for by a logistic model based on accumulated degree‐days. However, degree‐day based models fit to Hubbard Brook data appear to overestimate the rate at which spring development occurs at the more southerly Harvard Forest. Autumn senescence at the Harvard Forest can be predicted with reasonable accuracy in sugar maple but not American beech. Retrospective modeling using five decades (1957–2004) of Hubbard Brook daily mean temperature data suggests significant trends (P≤0.05) towards an earlier spring (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.18 days earlier/yr), consistent with other studies documenting measurable climate change effects on the onset of spring in both North America and Europe. Our results also suggest that green canopy duration has increased by about 10 days (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.21 days longer/yr) over the period of study.     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

内蒙古主要草原类型植物物候对气候波动的响应

物候是气候变化的指示者,由于不同地区植被类型不同,导致其对气候波动的响应方式不同。利用2004—2013年内蒙古草原区生态监测站群落优势种物候观测资料和同时段的气象资料,分析了不同草原类型区优势种物候期变化及其与气候因子间的相互关系,结果表明:(1)2004—2013年内蒙古草原区各时段气候波动趋势均不显著,返青前以气温降低、降水增加趋势为主;黄枯前草甸草原、典型草原以气温降低、降水增加趋势为主,荒漠草原变化趋势相反。(2)2004—2013年典型草原植物返青期平均提前4.01 d,黄枯推后10.35 d,生长季延长14.36 d;草甸草原返青期提前2.04 d,黄枯期推后12.68 d,生长季延长14.72 d;荒漠草原物候变化趋势最小,返青期平均提前了1.32 d,黄枯期平均推后了9.58 d,生长季延长了10.90 d。(3)内蒙古草原区植物返青期主要受气温波动的影响,草甸草原返青期与前3个月平均气温的负相关最为显著,气温每升高1℃,返青期约提前1.123 d;典型草原、荒漠草原返青期与前2个月平均气温的负相关最为显著气,气温每升高1℃,返青期约提前1.137 d和1.743 d。(4)典型草原区植物黄枯期受前1—2月平均气温和累积降水的共同影响,与夏季平均气温和当月降水量的相关最为显著,夏季气温每升高1℃,黄枯期约提前2.250 d,当月降水每增加1 mm,黄枯期约推后0.119 d。草甸草原、荒漠草原植物黄枯期与各时段降水、气温的相关均不显著,影响黄枯机制比较复杂。     

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982–2006

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long‐term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start‐of‐spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground‐based phenology, and two temperature‐driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day‐of‐year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground‐ or model‐based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.     

植物物候对气候变化的响应

植物物候的变化可以直观地反映某些气候变化,尤其是气候变暖.植物生长节律的变化引起植物与环境关系的改变.生态系统的物质循环（如水和碳的循环）等过程将随物候而改变.不同种类植物物候对气候变化的响应的差异,会使植物间和动植物间的竞争与依赖关系也发生深刻的变化.目前欧洲、美洲、亚洲等许多地区均有关于春季植物物候提前,秋季物候推迟,使植物的生长季延长,从而提示气候变暖的趋势.植物物候的模拟模型构成生态系统生产力模型的重要部分.     

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere

Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, ?1.2 days decade^?1), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, ?1.0 days decade^?1; last spring day below 5°C, ?1.4 days decade^?1), and last spring freeze date (?1.5 days decade^?1) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.     

Phenological responses in maple to experimental atmospheric warming and CO2 enrichment

Evidence that global warming has altered the phenology of the biosphere, possibly contributing to increased plant production in the northern hemisphere, has come from a diversity of observations at scales ranging from the view of the back yard to satellite images of the earth. These observations, coupled with an understanding of the effects of temperature on plant phenology, suggest that future changes in the atmosphere and climate could alter plant phenology with unknown or unpredictable consequences. We assessed the effects of simulated climatic warming and atmospheric CO₂ enrichment on the spring and autumn phenology of maple trees (Acer rubrum and A. saccharum) growing for four years in open‐top field chambers. CO₂ enrichment (+300 ppm) had no consistent effects on the timing of budbreak and leaf unfolding in the spring or leaf abscission in the autumn. Warming (+4°C) usually had predictable effects: in two of the three years of assessment, budbreak occurred earlier in warm chambers than in ambient temperature chambers, and leaf abscission always occurred later. The lengthening of the growing season could contribute to increased productivity, although effects of temperature on other physiological processes can concurrently have negative effects on productivity. In 1995, budbreak was unexpectedly delayed in the warmer chambers, apparently the result of advanced budbreak leading to injury from a late‐spring frost. Likewise, there was increased risk associated with longer leaf retention in the autumn: in 1994, leaves in the warm chambers were killed by freezing temperatures before they had senesced. These observations support the premise that global warming could increase the length of the growing season. Phenological responses should, therefore, be part of any assessment of the possible consequences of global change, but our results also suggest that those responses may not always have positive effects on production.