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1.
The population structures and dynamics of a dominant riparian canopy species, Pterocarya rhoifolia (Juglandaceae), were analyzed based on the census data collected for the 7 years from 1989 through 1996. A study plot was established over an environmental gradient that included the lower hill-slope, river terrace, and low-level floodplain of a riparian area within a 2.8-ha cool-temperate forest stand. Spatial analyses of the demographic data showed that there were significant differences in recruitment, growth, and death processes among the three habitats. The slope and terrace habitats were the severest for the pre-reproductive stage and recruitment process, respectively. A topographically combined projection matrix was constructed for the life-history processes of the three subpopulations, which clearly revealed that the floodplain and terrace subpopulations constituted the mainland source populations, whereas the slope subpopulation was an island sink population. The whole Pterocarya population linked by seed flow showed an increase in population size (λ=1.052). The elasticity analysis showed that the sum of the elasticity values was zero, 0.14, and 0.85 in the slope, terrace and floodplain subpopulations, respectively. This fact clearly indicates that the role of the floodplain subpopulation as a source population is six times as large as that of the terrace subpopulation. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

2.
1. A simple two-stage population model was applied to data from a previously published life-table response experiment (LTRE), which examined the toxicity of 4- n -nonylphenol to life-history traits of the polychaete Capitella sp. I. Population growth rates ( λ ) and the relative sensitivities (= elasticities) of λ to changes in each of the individual life-history traits were calculated.
2. In the present study, the life-history parameters measured in laboratory-reared individuals were manipulated to simulate potential effects of competition and predation on fecundity, time to reproductive maturity and juvenile survival to explore how such factors might influence the sensitivity of population growth rate to toxicant-caused changes in individual life-history traits.
3. Dramatic changes in elasticity patterns among simulations indicate that population growth rates may respond very differently to toxicant exposure depending on the extent to which other demographically limiting factors (e.g. competitors and/or predators) are operating on the population.
4. Effectively predicting the population-level consequences arising from toxicant effects measured on individuals can be improved by exploring the elasticity pattern of λ for the population over a range of realistic ecological situations.  相似文献   

3.
Population structure and ecological characteristics of component species of a riparian Ulmus-Quercus forest in central Japan were analyzed with special reference to riparian disturbance regime. Though the dbh distribution of the whole community was L-shaped, those of several component tree populations had several modes, suggesting intermittent regeneration periods in the past. Correlation of spatial distributions among tree populations and subpopulations showed 6 major groups reflecting riparian disturbances in the past and different establishment patterns among species. A cluster of small-sized tree populations (Salix sachalinensis, Alnus hirsuta and Populus maximowiczii <30 cm dbh) were distributed on the lower terrace along the active river channel, while large-sized subpopulations (dbh 60 cm) of Quercus crispula and Ulumus davidiana var. japonica occurred on the higher terrace. The Phellodendron amurense population also occurred on the higher terrace in small clumps though the trees were small (less than 55 cm dbh). Subpopulations of intermediate-sized individuals (30 dbh < 60 cm) of Q. crispula and U. davidiana var. japonica, together with Betula and Acer spp. populations occurred on the intermediate terrace. Dendrochronological analyses indicated that the large and intermediate-sized tree groups were established about 330 and 90 years ago, respectively, while the small-sized tree group established about 35 years ago. A survey of historical disturbances showed that these periods of establishment of the former two groups almost coincided with the historically major floods occurring in 1662 and 1902. However, the disturbance that resulted in the establishment of the youngest group could not be precisely identified. Thus, the forest is a mosaic of three differently-aged patches, which is closely related to the frequency and scale of riparian disturbances. Longevity of trees and the preferred conditions for seed germination and/or seedling establishment were particularly important for the guild structure in this forest community.  相似文献   

4.
Riparian zones associated with alluvial rivers are spatially dynamic, forming distinct vegetative mosaics that exhibit sharp contrasts in structure and processes related to the underlying biophysical template. The productivity of riparian plants, especially trees, influences streamside community characteristics as well as the forms and fluxes of organic matter to adjacent streams – thereby strongly impacting patterns of channel morphology, water flow, sedimentation, and habitat in rivers. As part of a comprehensive investigation of riparian dynamics in coastal rain forest rivers of the Pacific Northwest (USA), we examined riparian tree abundance (density, basal area, and biomass) and rates of production (basal area growth [BAI] and bole wood biomass increase [P]) of seven common species – red alder (Alnus rubra), Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla), black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa), vine maple (Acer circinatum) and willow (Salix spp.) – in the lowland floodplain of the Queets River (Olympic National Park), Washington. Measurements were made annually for three years (1999 – 2001) in 16 permanent plots on three biophysical templates that formed a toposequence – active floodplain, young terrace and mature terrace. Stem density was highest in the active floodplain (∼27,000 stems/ ha), decreasing in the young terrace (∼2,700 stems /ha) and the mature terrace (∼500 stems/ha). Basal area and total stem biomass were lowest in the active floodplain (∼16 m2/ha and ∼18 Mg dry weight/ha, respectively) and higher on the young terrace (∼32 m2/ha and ∼134 Mg dry weight/ha) and on the mature terrace (∼69 m2/ha and ∼540 Mg dry weight /ha). Total plot-scale BAI was not significantly different among the physical templates with mean values ranging from approximately 1.4 (low terrace) to approximately 2.8 m2/ha/y (active floodplain). In contrast, P was significantly higher on the mature terrace (10.3 Mg/ha) than the active floodplain (3.2 Mg/ha) but there was no significant difference between young terrace (6.5 Mg/ha) and mature terrace. For the entire Queets River floodplain (57 km2 over 77 km of river length), the mature terrace contributed 81% of the total annual production (28,764 Mg) whereas the active floodplain and young terrace accounted only for 5 and 14%, respectively. Overall, we show that riparian trees grow quickly in this coastal Pacific Northwest system and that the older riparian forests on mature terraces are the main contributors to stem production at the plot and floodplain scales for at least 350 years after stand initiation. This suggests that, in combination with the rapid lateral migrations of many alluvial rivers, the older riparian forests on those terraces are important and sustained sources of organic matter (especially large woody debris, LWD) that, over decades to centuries, shape the character of coastal rivers in the Pacific Northwest.  相似文献   

5.
Henrik Berg 《Ecography》2002,25(2):233-243
I studied demography in three populations of the clonal, cleistogamous herb Oxalis acetosella during three growing seasons, to assess the impact of seedling recruitment relative to ramet recruitment on its population dynamics. I followed each plant in permanent plots, and stage-classified it according to origin (sexually or vegetatively derived) and reproductive status. I calculated between-year transition probabilities, and sexual and vegetative fecundities, and used them in projection matrix analyses to simulate the development of populations and obtain the elasticity of each life-history event.
In general, non-flowering adults was the most numerous stage class and flowering new ramets the rarest, whereas the proportions of the other stage classes varied among populations and years. The negative correlation between plant density and survival was not very strong, and mortality seemed to be largely density-independent. Simulated population growth rates (λ) indicated that one of the populations is declining and the other two are growing, although slowly. The highest elasticities were usually those of stasis in adult plants, whereas elasticities of other matrix entries were low and highly variable. λ was positively correlated with the elasticities of seedling production and survival but negatively correlated with the elasticity of adult survival, indicating that seedling recruitment is more favourable for population growth than is adult stasis. There were no correlations between λ on the one hand and the elasticities of ramet production and survival on the other.
The results suggest that recruitment from seedlings is important for the growth and long-term maintenance of O. acetosella populations, as a complement to the rather low vegetative propagation. In this context cleistogamy is an adaptive strategy, maximizing total seed output.  相似文献   

6.
Habitat degradation can result in drastic environmental changes potentially affecting the life-history of populations and aspects of the reproductive biology and the genetic structure within and among populations. Here, we explore how life-history differences between subpopulations from contrasting habitats may affect mating availability, which in turn will indirectly affect the strength of spatial genetic structure within populations of a tropical rainforest cycad (Zamia fairchildiana). Subpopulations exposed to higher light availability in degraded-forest habitats had male individuals that grew faster, reproduced earlier, and invested more in reproduction than in native-forest habitat subpopulations. These differences in life history resulted in degraded-habitat subpopulations showing a higher proportion of reproductive adults and greater mate availability in a reproductive season. Subpopulations in the degraded habitat showed weaker SGS, i.e., a smaller slope in the linear regression of genetic relatedness on linear distance. Environmentally induced changes in life history and subsequent changes in the strength of the SGS after habitat degradation may have important consequences for population viability and should be of concern in conservation.  相似文献   

7.
Satu Ramula  Kari Lehtilä 《Oikos》2005,111(3):563-573
Large data requirements may restrict the use of matrix population models for analysis of population dynamics. Less data are required for a small population matrix than for a large matrix because the smaller matrix contains fewer vital rates that need to be estimated. Smaller matrices, however, tend to have a lower precision. Based on 37 plant species, we studied the effects of matrix dimensionality on the long-term population growth rate (λ) and the elasticity of λ in herbaceous and woody species. We found that when matrix dimensionality was reduced, changes in λ were significantly larger for herbaceous than for woody species. In many cases, λ of woody species remained virtually the same after a substantial decrease in matrix dimensionality, suggesting that woody species are less susceptible to matrix dimensionality. We demonstrated that when adjacent stages of a transition matrix are combined, the magnitude of a change in λ depends on the distance of the population structure from a stable stage distribution, and the difference in the combined vital rates weighted by their reproductive values. Elasticity of λ to survival and fecundity usually increased, whereas elasticity to growth decreased both in herbaceous and in woody species with reduced matrix dimensionality. Changes in elasticity values tended to be larger for herbaceous than for woody species. Our results show that by reducing matrix dimensionality, the amount of demographic data can be decreased to save time, money, and field effort. We recommend the use of a small matrix dimensionality especially when a limited amount of data is available, and for slow-growing species having a simple matrix structure that mainly consists of stasis and growth to the next stage.  相似文献   

8.
One of the habitats occupied by Mammillaria magnimamma is a 2000-year old lava-field, in Mexico City. The great ecological interest on this lava-field and the little knowledge there is regarding cacti population ecology have compelled us to analyse the demography of this species to evaluate its present conservation status at this site. We studied two populations of this species within the lava-field: one in a disturbed site (i.e., recently burned) and another one in a well preserved site. For each population we built two size-based population projection matrices (1996/97 and 1997/98). Demographic data were gathered directly from observations of plant fates from one year to the next. Additionally, seed germination and seedling establishment experiments were carried out in the field to estimate fecundity values and seedling survival probabilities. The four matrices built were used to perform numerical analyses simulating yearly stochastic demographic variation to project the overall population's long-term behaviour under these changing conditions. Three of the four matrices showed λ values slightly below unity. In these cases elasticity values were highest for matrix entries corresponding to plants remaining in their same category. The matrix that showed a λ value above unity (well preserved site, 1997/98) had higher elasticity values for entries referring to seedling survival and growth. The numerical simulations of demographic stochasticity showed that the population appears to be growing at a slow rate. According to the simulation results, the variation in overall population size over time may be accounted for by yearly variation in seed germination and seedling survival. Population persistence probability might decrease significantly if fire frequency increases. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

9.
以伊犁特克斯河河岸带阶地和河漫滩两种生境镰叶锦鸡儿(Caragana aurantiaca)灌丛为对象,研究了结荚数量、重量、荚果大小与灌丛分株高度、分枝数量、丛径等指标的关系,探讨了荚果生产过程在种群更新中的作用。结果表明,阶地中的镰叶锦鸡儿荚果数量、荚果长度和荚果生物量显著高于河漫滩,而有性繁殖分配和单个荚果重显著低于河漫滩。荚果数量和荚果生物量大小分布特征较一致,均呈现L型分布格局,符合gamma分布,集中于0~20枚和0~0.5 g。单荚重在两个生境符合对数-正态分布,集中于10~30 mg。两种生境荚果大小变异性主要由大个体引起。标准主轴回归分析表明,除河漫滩生境的荚果生物量与分株高的回归方程未达到显著水平之外,荚果数量、荚果重与分株高、分枝数、丛径的回归方程均达到显著水平。不论荚果数量还是荚果重,在两种生境中的斜率大小顺序均遵循分株高>丛径>分枝数的变化规律,其中分株高和丛径的斜率差异不明显,但均显著大于分枝数。两种生境镰叶锦鸡儿均可产生大量的荚果,在阶地中倾向于产生大量、小的荚果,河漫滩倾向于产生少、大的荚果,种群更新不存在种源限制,生产管理中应注意增加灌丛高度和丛径,提高结荚量,促进种群的自我更新和维持。  相似文献   

10.
长江三峡地区干流河岸植物群落的初步研究   总被引:21,自引:2,他引:19  
以长江三峡干流河岸植物群落为研究对象,对群落的物种组成、物种多样性进行了分析,并利用TWINSPAN方法对植物群落进行高等级式划分。结果表明:河岸植物区系组成较为复杂,以温带成分为主,有着较高比率的世界分布成分。植物生活性方面,草本种类的比率略高于木本种类,藤本种类较少。藻、草丛群落之间的物种多样性差异不显著。TWINSPAN和DCA分析显示,河岸植物群藻可分为6大类群,这些类群呈现沿湿度梯度方向  相似文献   

11.
We studied the demography of Viola elatior, V. pumila, and V. stagnina, three rare and endangered Central European floodplain species, to (i) analyse variation in life-cycles among congeners and between regions (Dyje-Morava floodplains, Czech Republic; Upper Rhine, Germany), (ii) to define sensitive stages in the life-cycles, and (iii) to identify possible threats for population viability and species conservation. Matrix models were based on the fate of marked individuals from a total of 27 populations over two years. We analysed population growth rate (λ), stage distribution, net reproductive rate (R 0), generation time, age at first reproduction, and elasticity and calculated a life table response experiment (LTRE). Most populations were declining and λ did not differ between species or regions during the observed interval. Despite higher probabilities for survival and flowering in the Dyje populations, R 0 was higher in the Rhine populations. Also other demographic traits showed consistent differences between regions and/or species. Complex life-cycles and large variation in λ precluded unequivocal identification of sensitive stages or vital rates for conservation. Variation between regions may be a consequence of differences in habitat quality. Our results suggest that deterministic processes such as reduced management, succession, habitat destruction, and lack of disturbance through reduced or eliminated flooding present the strongest threat for the viability and persistence of populations of the three floodplain violets as compared with stochastic processes. However, the persistent seed bank of the species may buffer populations against environmental variation and represents a reservoir for recovery after resumption of suitable land-use management.  相似文献   

12.
Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (λ) in long-lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which λ is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which λ is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life-history predictions in a population of red-tailed tropicbirds ( Phaethon rubricauda ). We support our first prediction that λ is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Niño) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which λ was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data-sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.  相似文献   

13.
Introduction of biological control agents to reduce the abundance of exotic invasive plant species is often considered necessary but risky. I used matrix projection models to investigate the current population dynamics of Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae), an invasive shrub, in two rainforest stands on the island of Hawaii and to predict the efficacy of hypothetical biological control agents in reducing population growth rates. Stage-structured matrix models were parameterized with field data collected over 3 years from 2906 C. hirta plants in a recently invaded forest with an open overstory (Laupahoehoe) and 600 plants in a less recently invaded forest with a closed canopy (Waiakea). Asymptotic population growth rates (λ) for both populations in all years were greater than one, demonstrating that both populations were growing. Composite elasticities were high for the seedling life-history stage and fecundity, and near-term demographic elasticities suggested that changes in seedling survival would have the largest effect on population size in the short term. However, simulations showed that almost 100% of seedlings or new recruits produced per reproductive adult would have to be destroyed to cause populations to go locally extinct under current environmental conditions. Herbivores or pathogens that decrease survival across all vegetative stages by 12% at Waiakea and 64% at Laupahoehoe were projected to cause the populations to decline. Thus, biocontrol agents that reduce survival of multiple life-history stages rather than seed production should be pursued to control C. hirta in Hawaiian rainforests.  相似文献   

14.
Even when anthropogenically altered, river floodplains continue to contribute to biodiversity. This study examined the distribution of freshwater mussels in relation to environmental factors in waterbodies in the terrestrialized floodplain of a lowland river. Mussels were captured, and environmental measurements were taken in November of 2013 and 2014 in quadrats established in three floodplain waterbodies (FWBs), which were isolated from the main river channel. Among the three FWBs, mussel abundance was highest in a shallow FWB (depth range 18–45 cm) that had intermediate conditions of mud depth and fine sediment rate. Mussel abundance showed a hump-shaped relationship with water depth (the peak 45–50 cm) and mud depth (the peak 8–12 cm). Mussel abundance was also negatively related to the abundance of benthic litter. Litter abundance was positively related to branch abundance and the presence of tree cover, and negatively related to the distance to tree cover, indicating that benthic litter was derived from riparian trees. Our results indicate that relatively shallow (≤ 50 cm) FWBs with moderately accumulated mud, which are not scoured even during flooding, appear to be suitable habitats for mussels. Moreover, it is possible that riparian trees negatively impact mussel distribution in FWBs. Possible short-term measures for improving mussel habitat in FWBs may include the elimination of riparian trees and benthic litter.  相似文献   

15.
Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.  相似文献   

16.
The relative dominance of deciduous trees having diffuse, semiring, or ring porous xylem is considered in relation to percent slope, site, vertical stratification within site, and to disturbance. Xylem type relative dominance was calculated on the basis of basal area by a procedure that is generally employed for the determination of species relative dominance. The study area was located within the central hardwoods region of the Eastern Deciduous Forest. On a moisture gradient, the sites were a hydric floodplain, a mesic river terrace and cove, and a xeric hillside spur. There was an increase from lowland to upland sites in absolute number of species having diffuse porous and those having ring porous xylem; however, the data showed no significant difference among the four sites or between the cove's northwest and southwest aspects in the percentages of species having diffuse porous xylem and those having ring porous xylem. In contrast to species number data, relative dominance data showed that diffuse porous species were dominant on the floodplain, on the northwest aspect of the cove, and in lower strata beneath the dominant ring porous upper canopy on the spur and southwest aspect of the cove. Ring porous species were dominant in the upper canopy only on the spur and on the southwest aspect of the cove. Semiring porous species had a high dominance level on the disturbed terrace site, a much lower level of dominance on the less disturbed floodplain, and very low dominance on the relatively undisturbed cove and spur sites. The results demonstrated that sets of closely and distantly related tree species having the same xylem anatomy share some common ecological characteristics, suggesting that xylem structure is a critical character in the adaptation of trees to variations in the environment over small geographical areas.  相似文献   

17.
The food and feeding habits of riparian ground beetles were studied in four alpine floodplains (Bavaria, Germany): a 5th-order stream (the Isar) and three 3rd-order streams. The riparian fauna along the streams mainly consists of predaceous species. Riparian ground beetle densities were much higher along the Isar than along the small streams. Aquatic invertebrates composed 89% of the potential prey for carnivorous terrestrial insects along the Isar. Besides aquatic organisms washed ashore, stoneflies emerging on land are of considerable importance as potential prey for terrestrial predators. In contrast, only 34% of the potential prey organisms collected along the small streams were of aquatic origin. Food abundance was 9 times higher in the shore region of the Isar compared to the small streams. Surface drift in the Isar, a potentially important food source for riparian organisms, was about 106 organisms and exuviae per meter stream width in 24 h. The drift density in the Isar was 59 times higher than that in a small stream. Terrestrial organisms provided only 3% of the drifting particles in the Isar, but 50% in the small stream. Gut content analysis reveals, that riparian ground beetles in the Isar floodplain mainly feed on aquatic organisms washed ashore or emerging on land. While small Bembidion species prefer chironomids (larvae and adults) the larger species Nebria picicornis feeds on emerging stoneflies, terrestrial riparian organisms and aquatic organisms accumulating along the shoreline. The prey of riparian ground beetles in the floodplain of the three small streams mainly consists of terrestrial species some of which may have been washed ashore. Received: 2 September 1996 / Accepted: 26 February 1997  相似文献   

18.
Abstract. The influence of canopy trees and shrubs on under‐storey plants is complex and context‐dependent. Canopy plants can exert positive, negative or neutral effects on production, composition and diversity of understorey plant communities, depending on local environmental conditions and position in the landscape. We studied the influence of Prosopis velutina (mesquite) on soil moisture and nitrogen availability, and understorey vegetation along a topographic gradient in the Sonoran Desert. We found significant increases in both soil moisture and N along the gradient from desert to riparian zone. In addition, P. velutina canopies had positive effects, relative to open areas, on soil moisture in the desert, and soil N in both desert and intermediate terrace. Biomass of understorey vegetation was highest and species richness was lowest in the riparian zone. Canopies had a positive effect on biomass in both desert and terrace, and a negative effect on species richness in the terrace. The effect of the canopy depended on landscape position, with desert canopies more strongly influencing soil moisture and biomass and terrace canopies more strongly influencing soil N and species richness. Individual species distributions suggested interspecific variation in response to water‐ vs. N‐availability; they strongly influence species composition at both patch and landscape position levels.  相似文献   

19.
Structure of herbaceous plant assemblages in a forested riparian landscape   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
We assessed patterns of herbaceous and woody species richness, plant-environment interactions, and correspondence between the herb and tree layer in a riparian landscape (the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri, USA). A total of 269 herb and 70 tree species were identified on 94 sample plots. Gradient analysis revealed that environmental variables and vegetation were influenced by a strong elevation gradient. However, high variability in environmental variables (pH, elevation, slope, sand, clay, organic matter) indicated a high level of substrate heterogeneity across the riparian landscape. We were unable to predict the composition of the herb understory from the canopy trees with any detailed accuracy and no clear characterization of herb species assemblages was found using cluster analysis or ecological land type (ELT) classifications. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) results for both tree and herb plots showed that elevation (height above river) and pH were the dominant environmental gradients influencing vegetation patterns on the first CCA axis while soil particle size exhibited the strongest correlation with the second CCA axis. Secondary gradients of importance included slope, soil container capacity, and organic matter. No significant linear or quadratic correlation was found between elevation and herb or woody species richness. Environmental variables alone or in combination, were weak predictors of herb and woody species richness, despite the patterns observed in the gradient analysis and the correlations observed in the CCA results. Ecotonal analysis showed that the herb layer exhibited a high species replacement rate at the lower elevations most susceptible to flooding (0–3 m). Above the flooding zone, there was more or less continuous species replacement, suggesting the presence of a gradual ecotone/ecocline. The tree layer exhibited much stronger discontinuities than the herb layer in the lower elevations along the height gradient (0–10 m). Recognizing the limitations of classification techniques for riparian herb assemblages and the importance of scale and heterogeneity in vegetation layers is especially important in light of mandates to preserve, protect, and manage for plant diversity.  相似文献   

20.
The relative effect of survival and reproductive rates to population growth rate is expected to be similar across species with similar life-histories. We employed a matrix population model and sensitivity and elasticity analysis to assess the absolute and relative importance of age-specific survival and fertility to population growth rate of Didelphis aurita (Didelphimorphia, Didelphidae) in a rural area of Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil. The results were compared to expectations for mammals that mature early and have short generation time, such as D. aurita. Prospective analysis showed that changes in pouch young and juveniles survival would have large effects on population growth rate, relative to other vital rates, being the most critical time periods in the life cycle of D. aurita, whereas the effect of fertilities were always low. These findings do not fit to the observed pattern in mammals that mature early, where reproductive parameters have the largest relative influence on population growth rate. Although reproductive rates were characterized by a relatively small influence on population growth rate, they are still relevant because of their high variability and response to potential environmental disturbances. The first application of matrix population models to a neotropical rainforest marsupial provides information on marsupial demography and life-history strategy, increasing comprehension of this unknown group.  相似文献   

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