From Where Are Tuberculosis Patients Accessing Treatment in India? Results from a Cross-Sectional Community Based Survey of 30 Districts

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) notification in India by the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) provides information on TB patients registered for treatment from the programme. There is limited information about the proportion of patients treated for TB outside RNTCP and where these patients access their treatment.

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of patients accessing TB treatment outside the RNTCP and to identify their basic demographic characteristics.

Methods

A cross sectional community-based survey in 30 districts. Patients were identified through a door-to-door survey and interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire.

Results

Of the estimated 75,000 households enumerated, 73,249 households (97.6%) were visited. Of the 371,174 household members, 761 TB patients were identified (∼205 cases per 100,000 populations). Data were collected from 609 (80%) TB patients of which 331 [54% (95% CI: 42–66%)] were determined to be taking treatment ‘under DOTS/RNTCP’. The remaining 278 [46% (95% CI: 34–57%)] were on treatment from ‘outside DOTS/RNTCP’ sources and hence were unlikely to be part of the TB notification system. Patients who were accessing treatment from ‘outside DOTS/RNTCP’ were more likely to be patients from rural areas [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.5, 95% CI (1.2–5.3)] and whose TB was diagnosed in a non-government health facility (aOR 14.0, 95% CI 7.9–24.9).

Conclusions

This community-based survey found that nearly half of self-reported TB patients were missed by TB notification system in these districts. The study highlights the need for 1) Reviewing and revising the scope of the TB notification system, 2) Strengthening and monitoring health care delivery systems with periodic assessment of the reach and utilisation of the RNTCP services especially among rural communities, 3) Advocacy, communication and social mobilisation activities focused at rural communities with low household incomes and 4) Inclusive involvement of all health-care providers, especially providers of poor rural communities.     

Cultural Adaptation of a Survey to Assess Medical Providers’ Knowledge of and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS in Albania

Though the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Southeastern Europe is one of low reported prevalence, numerous studies have described the pervasiveness of medical providers’ lack of knowledge of HIV/AIDS in the Balkans. This study sought to culturally adapt an instrument to assess medical providers’ knowledge of and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS in Albania. Cultural adaptation was completed through development of a survey from previously validated instruments, translation of the survey into Albanian, blinded back translation, expert committee review of the draft instrument, focus group pre-testing with community- and University Hospital Center of Tirana-based physicians and nurses, and test-retest reliability testing. Blinded back translation of the instrument supported the initial translation with slight changes to the idiomatic and conceptual equivalences. Focus group pre-testing generally supported the instrument, yet some experiential and idiomatic changes were implemented. Based on unweighted kappa and/or prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa (PABAK), 20 of the 43 questions were deemed statistically significant at kappa and/or PABAK ≥0.5, while 12 others did not cross zero on the 95% confidence interval for kappa, indicating their probable significance. Subsequently, an instrument to assess medical providers’ knowledge of and attitudes toward HIV/AIDS for an Albanian population was developed which can be expanded within Albania and potentially to other countries within the Balkans, which have an Albanian-speaking population.     

Is Serum Zinc Associated with Pancreatic Beta Cell Function and Insulin Sensitivity in Pre-Diabetic and Normal Individuals? Findings from the Hunter Community Study

Aim

To determine if there is a difference in serum zinc concentration between normoglycaemic, pre-diabetic and type-2 diabetic groups and if this is associated with pancreatic beta cell function and insulin sensitivity in the former 2 groups.

Method

Cross sectional study of a random sample of older community-dwelling men and women in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. Beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and insulin resistance were calculated for normoglycaemic and prediabetes participants using the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-2) calculator.

Result

A total of 452 participants were recruited for this study. Approximately 33% (N = 149) had diabetes, 33% (N = 151) had prediabetes and 34% (N = 152) were normoglycaemic. Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) parameters were found to be significantly different between normoglycaemic and prediabetes groups (p<0.001). In adjusted linear regression, higher serum zinc concentration was associated with increased insulin sensitivity (p = 0.01) in the prediabetic group. There was also a significant association between smoking and worse insulin sensitivity.

Conclusion

Higher serum zinc concentration is associated with increased insulin sensitivity. Longitudinal studies are required to determine if low serum zinc concentration plays a role in progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes.     

Where Do the Rural Poor Deliver When High Coverage of Health Facility Delivery Is Achieved? Findings from a Community and Hospital Survey in Tanzania

Introduction

As part of maternal mortality reducing strategies, coverage of delivery care among sub-Saharan African rural poor will improve, with a range of facilities providing services. Whether high coverage will benefit all socio-economic groups is unknown. Iringa rural District, Southern Tanzania, with high facility delivery coverage, offers a paradigm to address this question. Delivery services are available in first-line facilities (dispensaries, health centres) and one hospital. We assessed whether all socio-economic groups access the only comprehensive emergency obstetric care facility equally, and surveyed existing delivery services.

Methods

District population characteristics were obtained from a household community survey (n = 463). A Hospital survey collected data on women who delivered in this facility (n = 1072). Principal component analysis on household assets was used to assess socio-economic status. Hospital population socio-demographic characteristics were compared to District population using multivariable logistic regression. Deliveries'' distribution in District facilities and staffing were analysed using routine data.

Results

Women from the hospital compared to the District population were more likely to be wealthier. Adjusted odds ratio of hospital delivery increased progressively across socio-economic groups, from 1.73 for the poorer (p = 0.0031) to 4.53 (p<0.0001) for the richest. Remarkable dispersion of deliveries and poor staffing were found. In 2012, 5505/7645 (72%) institutional deliveries took place in 68 first-line facilities, the remaining in the hospital. 56/68 (67.6%) first-line facilities reported ≤100 deliveries/year, attending 33% of deliveries. Insufficient numbers of skilled birth attendants were found in 42.9% of facilities.

Discussion

Poorer women remain disadvantaged in high coverage, as they access lower level facilities and are under-represented where life-saving transfusions and caesarean sections are available. Tackling the challenges posed by low caseloads and staffing on first-line rural care requires confronting a dilemma between coverage and quality. Reducing number of delivery sites is recommended to improve quality and equity of care.     

Tigers of Sundarbans in India: Is the Population a Separate Conservation Unit?

The Sundarbans tiger inhabits a unique mangrove habitat and are morphologically distinct from the recognized tiger subspecies in terms of skull morphometrics and body size. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess their ecological and genetic distinctiveness and determine if Sundarbans tigers should be defined and managed as separate conservation unit. We utilized nine microsatellites and 3 kb from four mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes to estimate genetic variability, population structure, demographic parameters and visualize historic and contemporary connectivity among tiger populations from Sundarbans and mainland India. We also evaluated the traits that determine exchangeability or adaptive differences among tiger populations. Data from both markers suggest that Sundarbans tiger is not a separate tiger subspecies and should be regarded as Bengal tiger (P. t. tigris) subspecies. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA data revealed reciprocal monophyly. Genetic differentiation was found stronger for mtDNA than nuclear DNA. Microsatellite markers indicated low genetic variation in Sundarbans tigers (He= 0.58) as compared to other mainland populations, such as northern and Peninsular (Hebetween 0.67- 0.70). Molecular data supports migration between mainland and Sundarbans populations until very recent times. We attribute this reduction in gene flow to accelerated fragmentation and habitat alteration in the landscape over the past few centuries. Demographic analyses suggest that Sundarbans tigers have diverged recently from peninsular tiger population within last 2000 years. Sundarbans tigers are the most divergent group of Bengal tigers, and ecologically non-exchangeable with other tiger populations, and thus should be managed as a separate “evolutionarily significant unit” (ESU) following the adaptive evolutionary conservation (AEC) concept.     

Do Maternal Knowledge and Attitudes towards Childhood Immunizations in Rural Uganda Correlate with Complete Childhood Vaccination?

Improving childhood vaccination coverage and timeliness is a key health policy objective in many developing countries such as Uganda. Of the many factors known to influence uptake of childhood immunizations in under resourced settings, parents’ understanding and perception of childhood immunizations has largely been overlooked. The aims of this study were to survey mothers’ knowledge and attitudes towards childhood immunizations and then determine if these variables correlate with the timely vaccination coverage of their children. From September to December 2013, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1,000 parous women in rural Sheema district in southwest Uganda. The survey collected socio-demographic data and knowledge and attitudes towards childhood immunizations. For the women with at least one child between the age of one month and five years who also had a vaccination card available for the child (N = 302), the vaccination status of this child was assessed. 88% of these children received age-appropriate, on-time immunizations. 93.5% of the women were able to state that childhood immunizations protect children from diseases. The women not able to point this out were significantly more likely to have an under-vaccinated child (PR 1.354: 95% CI 1.018–1.802). When asked why vaccination rates may be low in their community, the two most common responses were “fearful of side effects” and “ignorance/disinterest/laziness” (44% each). The factors influencing caregivers’ demand for childhood immunizations vary widely between, and also within, developing countries. Research that elucidates local knowledge and attitudes, like this study, allows for decisions and policy pertaining to vaccination programs to be more effective at improving child vaccination rates.     

Preventing Introduction of Livestock Associated MRSA in a Pig Population – Benefits,Costs, and Knowledge Gaps from the Swedish Perspective

Antibiotic resistance is a growing concern in human, as well as in veterinary medicine. Part of the problem concerns how to respond to the risk presented by animal reservoirs of resistant bacteria with the potential of spreading to humans. One example is livestock associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA). In countries where LA-MRSA is endemic in the pig population, people in contact with pigs have a higher risk of being colonised with LA-MRSA, and persons from this group are subjected to precautionary measures when visiting health care facilities. In the present study, it is assumed that, if LA-MRSA was introduced to the Swedish pig population, the prevalence in the risk groups would be the same as in Denmark or the Netherlands (two countries with low human prevalence that have implemented measures to detect, trace and isolate human LA-MRSA cases and, therefore, have comprehensive data with good coverage regarding prevalence of LA-MRSA), and that similar interventions would be taken in Swedish health care facilities. It is also assumed that the Swedish pig population is free of MRSA or that the prevalence is very low. We analyse if it would be efficient for Sweden to prevent its introduction by testing imported live breeding pigs. Given that quarantining and testing at import will prevent introduction to the pig population, the study shows that the preventive measures may indeed generate a societal net benefit. Benefits are estimated to be between € 870 720 and € 1 233 511, and costs to € 211 129. Still, due to gaps in knowledge, the results should be confirmed when more information become available.     

How Would Children Register Their Own Births? Insights from a Survey of Students Regarding Birth Registration Knowledge and Policy Suggestions in Kenya

Birth registration and obtaining physical birth certificates impose major challenges in developing countries, with impact on child and community health, education, planning, and all levels of development. However despite initiatives, universal registration is elusive, leading to calls for new approaches to understanding the decisions of parents. In this paper, we report results of a survey of students in grades six to eight (age ~12–16) in an under-registered area of Kenya regarding their own understanding of registration issues and their suggestions for improvement. These students were selected because they themselves were also nearing the age for high school enrollment/entrance examinations, which specifically requires possession of a birth certificate. This assessment was also a companion to our previous representative survey of adults in the same Kenyan region, allowing for parent-child comparison. Results supported previous research, showing that only 43% had birth certificates. At the same time, despite these low totals, students were themselves quite aware of registration factors and purposes. The students also made quite prescient sources for understanding their households’ motivations, with many of their suggestions—for focus on communication of pragmatic benefits, or automatic measures shifting responsibility from parents—mirroring our own previous suggestions, and showing a level of pragmatism not witnessed when surveying their parents. This paper therefore adds evidence to the discussion of registration policy planning. More generally, it also builds on an important trend regarding the treatment of children as stakeholders and important sources of information, and raising an intriguing new avenue for future research.     

Doing No Harm? Adverse Events in a Nation-Wide Cohort of Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Nigeria

Background

Adverse events (AEs) of second line anti-tuberculosis drugs (SLDs) are relatively well documented. However, the actual burden has rarely been described in detail in programmatic settings. We investigated the occurrence of these events in the national cohort of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients in Nigeria.

Method

This was a retrospective, observational cohort study, using pharmacovigilance data systematically collected at all MDR-TB treatment centers in Nigeria. Characteristics of AEs during the intensive phase treatment were documented, and risk factors for development of AEs were assessed.

Results

Four hundred and sixty patients were included in the analysis: 62% were male; median age was 33 years [Interquartile Range (IQR):28–42] and median weight was 51 kg (IQR: 45–59). Two hundred and three (44%) patients experienced AEs; four died of conditions associated with SLD AEs. Gastro-intestinal (n = 100), neurological (n = 75), ototoxic (n = 72) and psychiatric (n = 60) AEs were the most commonly reported, whereas ototoxic and psychiatric AEs were the most debilitating. Majority of AEs developed after 1–2 months of therapy, and resolved in less than a month after treatment. Some treatment centers were twice as likely to report AEs compared with others, highlighting significant inconsistencies in reporting at different treatment centers. Patients with a higher body weight had an increased risk of experiencing AEs. No differences were observed in risk of AEs between HIV-infected and uninfected patients. Similarly, age was not significantly associated with AEs.

Conclusion

Patients in the Nigerian MDR-TB cohort experienced a wide range of AEs, some of which were disabling and fatal. Early identification and prompt management as well as standardized reporting of AEs at all levels of healthcare, including the community is urgently needed. Safer regimens for drug-resistant TB with the shortest duration are advocated.     

Time Trend of Multiple Myeloma and Associated Secondary Primary Malignancies in Asian Patients: A Taiwan Population–Based Study

Studies involving second malignancies in patients with multiple myeloma are limited for the Asian population. Using data from population-based insurance claims, we assessed the risk of developing secondary malignancies after multiple myeloma, in particular hematologic malignancies. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 3970 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma from the registry of catastrophic illnesses between 1997 and 2009. A total of 15880 subjects without multiple myeloma were randomly selected as comparisons from the insured population, frequency-matched based on gender, age, and the date of diagnosis. The incidence of secondary malignancies was ascertained through cross-referencing with the National Cancer Registry System. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for analyses. The incidence of multiple myeloma in the insured population increased annually. The overall incidence of secondary malignancy was lower in the multiple myeloma cohort than in the comparison cohort (93.6 vs. 104.5 per 10,000 person-years, IRR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.78–1.04). The incidence of hematologic malignancies was 11-fold greater for multiple myeloma patients (47.2 vs. 4.09 per 10,000 person-years) with an adjusted HR of 13.0 (95% CI = 7.79–21.6) compared with the comparison cohort. The relative risk of secondary malignancy was also strong for myeloid leukemia (21.2 vs. 1.36 per 10,000 person-years). Gender- and age-specific analysis for secondary hematologic malignancies showed that males and patients with multiple myeloma <60 years of age had a higher risk of secondary malignancy than females and patients with multiple myeloma >60 years of age. In conclusion, patients with multiple myeloma, especially younger patients, are at a high risk of hematologic malignancies.     

Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Lens Opacities in a Korean Adult Population with and without Diabetes: The 2008–2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Objective

We examined the prevalence of and factors associated with lens opacities in a Korean adult population with and without diabetes.

Research Design and Methods

Among the 11,163 adults (≥19 years old) from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2008–2009, the data from laboratory tests, nutritional surveys, and slit-lamp examinations of 10,248 persons (4,397 men, 5,851 women) were examined. Cataract was defined as the presence of any nuclear, cortical, subcapsular, or mixed cataract in at least one eye, using the Lens Opacities Classification System III.

Results

The weighted prevalence of cataracts were 23.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 21.7–25.4] in a Korean adult population (19–39 years old, 1.8% [1.3–2.5], 40–64 years old, 25.2% [22.5–28.1],≥65 years old, 87.8% [85.4–89.9])and 54.7% [50.1–59.2] in a diabetic population(19–39 years old, 11.6% [4.5–26.5], 40–64 years old, 41.1% [35.4–47.0], ≥65 years old, 88.3% [83.5–91.8]). In a logistic regression analysis, age, myopia, and the presence of diabetes were independent risk factors. For young (age 19–39 years) and middle aged (age 40–65 years) adults with diabetes, the OR of having a lens opacity is 5.04 [1.41–17.98] and 1.47 [1.11–1.94], respectively, as those without diabetes, whereas for adults aged 65 and older, there was no difference in the prevalence of cataract.

Conclusions

According to these national survey data, ∼ 24% of Korean adults and ∼ 55% of people with diabetes have cataracts. The presence of diabetes was independently associated with cataracts in young and middle aged adults.     

Post-Amputation Pain Is Associated with the Recall of an Impaired Body Representation in Dreams—Results from a Nation-Wide Survey on Limb Amputees

The experience of post-amputation pain such as phantom limb pain (PLP) and residual limb pain (RLP), is a common consequence of limb amputation, and its presence has negative effects on a person’s well-being. The continuity hypothesis of dreams suggests that the presence of such aversive experiences in the waking state should be reflected in dream content, with the recalled body representation reflecting a cognitive proxy of negative impact. In the present study, we epidemiologically assessed the presence of post-amputation pain and other amputation-related information as well as recalled body representation in dreams in a sample of 3,234 unilateral limb amputees. Data on the site and time of amputation, residual limb length, prosthesis use, lifetime prevalence of mental disorders, presence of post-amputation pain, and presence of non-painful phantom phenomena were included in logistic regression analyses using recalled body representation in dreams (impaired, intact, no memory) as dependent variable. The effects of age, sex, and frequency of dream recall were controlled for. About 22% of the subjects indicated that they were not able to remember their body representation in dreams, another 24% of the amputees recalled themselves as always intact, and only a minority of less than 3% recalled themselves as always impaired. Almost 35% of the amputees dreamed of themselves in a mixed fashion. We found that lower-limb amputation as well as the presence of PLP and RLP was positively associated with the recall of an impaired body representation in dreams. The presence of non-painful phantom phenomena, however, had no influence. These results complement previous findings and indicate complex interactions of physical body appearance and mental body representation, probably modulated by distress in the waking state. The findings are discussed against the background of alterations in cognitive processes after amputation and hypotheses suggesting an innate body model.     

Health-Related Quality of Life among School Children with Parasitic Infections: Findings from a National Cross-Sectional Survey in C?te d'Ivoire

Background

Parasitic infections are still of considerable public health relevance, notably among children in low- and middle-income countries. Measures to assess the magnitude of ill-health in infected individuals, however, are debated and patient-based proxies through generic health-related quality of life (HrQoL) instruments are among the proposed strategies. Disability estimates based on HrQoL are still scarce and conflicting, and hence, there is a need to strengthen the current evidence-base.

Methodology

Between November 2011 and February 2012, a national school-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in Côte d''Ivoire. Children underwent parasitological and clinical examination to assess infection status with Plasmodium and helminth species and clinical parameters, and responded to a questionnaire interview incorporating sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported morbidity, and HrQoL. Validity analysis of the HrQoL instrument was performed, assessing floor and ceiling effects, internal consistency, and correlation with morbidity scores. Multivariate regression models were applied to identify significant associations between HrQoL and children''s parasitic infection and clinical status.

Principal Findings

Parasitological examination of 4,848 children aged 5–16 years revealed Plasmodium spp., hookworm, Schistosoma haematobium, Schistosoma mansoni, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura prevalences of 75.0%, 17.2%, 5.7%, 3.7%, 1.8%, and 1.3%, respectively. Anemic children showed a significant 1-point reduction in self-rated HrQoL on a scale from 0 to 100, whereas no significant negative association between HrQoL and parasite infection was observed. The 12-item HrQoL questionnaire proofed useful, as floor and ceiling effects were negligible, internally consistent (Cronbach''s alpha = 0.71), and valid, as revealed by significant negative correlations and associations with children''s self-reported and clinically assessed morbidity.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results suggest that HrQoL tools are not sufficiently sensitive to assess subtle morbidities due to parasitic infection in Ivorian school-aged children. However, more advanced morbid sequelae (e.g., anemia), were measurable by the instrument''s health construct. Further investigations on health impacts of parasitic infection among school-aged children and refinement of generic HrQoL questionnaires are warranted.     

Is Parental Control over Children's Eating Associated with Childhood Obesity? Results from a Population‐Based Sample of Third Graders

Objective: Identifying parental behaviors that influence childhood obesity is critical for the development of effective prevention and treatment programs. Findings from a prior laboratory study suggest that parents who impose control over their children's eating may interfere with their children's ability to regulate intake, potentially resulting in overweight. These findings have been widely endorsed; however, the direct relationship between parental control of children's intake and their children's degree of overweight has not been shown in a generalized sample. Research Methods and Procedures: This study surveyed 792 third‐grade children with diverse ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds from 13 public elementary schools. Parental control over children's intake was assessed through telephone interviews using a state‐of‐the‐art instrument, and children were measured for height, weight, and triceps skinfold thickness. Results: Counter to the hypothesis, parental control over children's intake was inversely associated with overweight in girls, as measured by body mass index, r = ?0.12, p < 0.05, and triceps skinfolds, r = ?0.11, p < 0.05. This weak relationship became only marginally significant when controlling for parents’ perceptions of their own weight, level of household education, and children's age. No relationship between parental control of children's intake and their children's degree of overweight was found in boys. Discussion: Previous observations of the influence of parental control over children's intake in middle‐class white families did not generalize to 8‐ to 9‐year‐olds in families with diverse socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds. The present findings reveal a more complex relationship between parental behaviors and children's weight status.     

Lymphotoxin Alpha (LTA) Polymorphism Is Associated with Prognosis of Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in a Chinese Population

Background

Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) has been widely reported to be associated with autoimmune and pro-inflammatory response, and genetic polymorphisms of candidate genes involved in autoimmune and pro-inflammatory response may influence the survival and prognosis of NHL patients. To evaluate the role of such genetic variations in prognosis of NHL, we conducted this study in a Chinese population.

Methods

We used the TaqMan assay to genotype six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (TNF rs1799964T>C, LTA rs1800683G>A, IL-10 rs1800872T>G, LEP rs2167270G>A, LEPR rs1327118C>G, TNFAIP8 rs1045241C>T) for 215 NHL cases. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to compare progression free survival among two common genotypes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify independent risk factors.

Results

We observed that LTA rs1800683G>A was significantly associated with risk of progression or relapse in NHL patients (HR = 1.63, 95%CI = 1.06–2.51; P = 0.028), particularly in Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cases (HR = 1.50, 95%CI = 1.10–2.04, P = 0.01). Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that in DLBCL patients, Ann Arbor stage III/IV, elevated LDH level before treatment and LTA rs1800683 AA genotype carrier were independent risk factors for progression or relapse. While in NK/T cell lymphoma, Ann Arbor stage III/IV and elevated β₂-MG level before treatment indicated poorer prognosis.

Conclusions

The polymorphism of LTA rs1800683G>A contributes to NHL prognosis in a Chinese population. Further large-scale and well-designed studies are needed to confirm these results.     

Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

Background

Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005–2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study.

Conclusions

Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Is the Prevalence of Successful Weight Loss and Maintenance Higher in the General Community than the Research Clinic?

BARTLETT, SUSAN J., MYLES S. FAITH, KEVIN R. FONTAINE, LAWRENCE J. CHESKIN, AND DAVID B. ALLISON. Is the prevalence of successful weight loss and maintenance higher in the general community than the research clinic? Obes Res. Objective: The prevalence of successful weight loss remains unclear. In 1982, Schachter concluded that in the general population, the rate of “self-cured” obesity approached 63%–much higher than the rate from clinical trials. Several subsequent studies have addressed this issue. Research Methods and Procedures: Our initial goal was to meta-analyze these studies to evaluate the validity of the original hypotheses and the extent to which additional investigations supported the findings. We began by restating Schachter's hypotheses in precise, testable terms. Results: A systematic review of these studies found many methodological limitations and much heterogeneity among the samples studied, hypotheses addressed, and operational definitions. Some of these limitations appear to stem from the lack of clear, precise statements of the exact hypotheses tested. Differences among studies are delineated, and we outline why meta-analytic pooling of these data appears inappropriate. Conclusions: The current data are inadequate to draw any definite conclusions regarding the cure rate of obesity. Criteria for the adequate study of success rates with “self-cure” in the general population are proposed.     

Variation at GRN 3′-UTR rs5848 Is Not Associated with a Risk of Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration in Dutch Population

Background

A single nucleotide polymorphism (rs5848) located in the 3′- untranslated region of GRN has recently been associated with a risk of frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) in North American population particularly in pathologically confirmed cases with neural inclusions immunoreactive for ubiquitin and TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43), but negative for tau and alpha-synuclein (FTLD-TDP).

Methodology/Principal Findings

In an effort to replicate these results in a different population, rs5848 was genotyped in 256 FTLD cases and 1695 controls from the Netherlands. Single SNP gender-adjusted logistic regression analysis revealed no significant association between variation at rs5848 and FTLD. Fisher''s exact test, failed to find any significant association between rs5848 and a subset of 23 pathology confirmed FTLD-TDP cases.

Conclusions/Significance

The evidence presented here suggests that variation at rs5848 does not contribute to the etiology of FTLD in the Dutch population.