Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease

Background

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG''s Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.

Methods and Findings

The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution). All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package ''FERG''. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process.

Conclusions

We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level.     

World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old–although they represent only 9% of the global population–and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety throughout the food chain by incorporating these estimates into policy development at national and international levels.

Summary Points

• Thirty-one foodborne hazards caused 600 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 420–960) million foodborne illnesses and 420,000 (95% UI 310,000–600,000) deaths in 2010.
• The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards studied was 33 (95% UI 25–46) million DALYs in 2010.
• The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents; particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp.
• Foodborne diarrheal disease agents, particularly non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, caused 230,000 (95% UI 160,000–320,000) deaths
• Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium, hepatitis A virus and aflatoxin.
• 40% of the FBD burden was among children under 5 years old.
• The African (AFR), South-East Asian (SEAR) and Eastern Mediterranean (EMR) D subregions had the highest FBD burden.
• Diarrheal disease agents were the leading cause of FBD burden in most subregions, and non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica caused an important burden in all subregions, particularly in the subregions in Africa.
• Other main causes of diarrheal FBD burden were enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and Vibrio cholerae in low-income subregions, and Campylobacter spp. in high-income subregions.
• The burden of aflatoxin was high in the AFR D, Western Pacific (WPR) B and SEAR B subregions, whereas dioxins caused the highest burden in SEAR D, EMR D and European (EUR) A and C subregions.
• In the South-East Asian subregions, there was a considerable burden of Salmonella Typhi; the burden of Opisthorchis spp. was concentrated in the SEAR B region, where the seafoodborne trematodes Paragonimus spp. and Clonorchis sinensis were also important.
• In Central and South American (AMR B and AMR D) subregions, T. solium and Toxoplasma gondii contributed significantly to the FBD burden.
• These estimates should inform policy development at national and international levels to improve food safety throughout the food chain.

     

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis

Background

Foodborne diseases are globally important, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Parasitic diseases often result in high burdens of disease in low and middle income countries and are frequently transmitted to humans via contaminated food. This study presents the first estimates of the global and regional human disease burden of 10 helminth diseases and toxoplasmosis that may be attributed to contaminated food.

Methods and Findings

Data were abstracted from 16 systematic reviews or similar studies published between 2010 and 2015; from 5 disease data bases accessed in 2015; and from 79 reports, 73 of which have been published since 2000, 4 published between 1995 and 2000 and 2 published in 1986 and 1981. These included reports from national surveillance systems, journal articles, and national estimates of foodborne diseases. These data were used to estimate the number of infections, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), by age and region for 2010. These parasitic diseases, resulted in 48.4 million cases (95% Uncertainty intervals [UI] of 43.4–79.0 million) and 59,724 (95% UI 48,017–83,616) deaths annually resulting in 8.78 million (95% UI 7.62–12.51 million) DALYs. We estimated that 48% (95% UI 38%-56%) of cases of these parasitic diseases were foodborne, resulting in 76% (95% UI 65%-81%) of the DALYs attributable to these diseases. Overall, foodborne parasitic disease, excluding enteric protozoa, caused an estimated 23.2 million (95% UI 18.2–38.1 million) cases and 45,927 (95% UI 34,763–59,933) deaths annually resulting in an estimated 6.64 million (95% UI 5.61–8.41 million) DALYs. Foodborne Ascaris infection (12.3 million cases, 95% UI 8.29–22.0 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis (10.3 million cases, 95% UI 7.40–14.9 million) were the most common foodborne parasitic diseases. Human cysticercosis with 2.78 million DALYs (95% UI 2.14–3.61 million), foodborne trematodosis with 2.02 million DALYs (95% UI 1.65–2.48 million) and foodborne toxoplasmosis with 825,000 DALYs (95% UI 561,000–1.26 million) resulted in the highest burdens in terms of DALYs, mainly due to years lived with disability. Foodborne enteric protozoa, reported elsewhere, resulted in an additional 67.2 million illnesses or 492,000 DALYs. Major limitations of our study include often substantial data gaps that had to be filled by imputation and suffer from the uncertainties that surround such models. Due to resource limitations it was also not possible to consider all potentially foodborne parasites (for example Trypanosoma cruzi).

Conclusions

Parasites are frequently transmitted to humans through contaminated food. These estimates represent an important step forward in understanding the impact of foodborne diseases globally and regionally. The disease burden due to most foodborne parasites is highly focal and results in significant morbidity and mortality among vulnerable populations.     

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 22 Foodborne Bacterial,Protozoal, and Viral Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis

BackgroundFoodborne diseases are important worldwide, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. To our knowledge, we present the first global and regional estimates of the disease burden of the most important foodborne bacterial, protozoal, and viral diseases.ConclusionsFoodborne diseases result in a large disease burden, particularly in children. Although it is known that diarrheal diseases are a major burden in children, we have demonstrated for the first time the importance of contaminated food as a cause. There is a need to focus food safety interventions on preventing foodborne diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income settings.     

Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

Objectives

Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa).

Methods

A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.

Results

A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.

Conclusions

We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.     

Stressful life events preceding the acute onset of schizophrenia: A cross-national study from the World Health Organization

This study reports on the findings from a WHO sponsored cross-national investigation of life events and schizophrenia. Data are presented from a series of 386 acutely ill schizophrenic patients selected from nine field research centers located in developing and developed countries (Aarhus, Denmark; Agra, India; Cali, Colombia; Chandigarh, India; Honolulu, USA; Ibadan, Nigeria; Nagasaki, Japan; Prague, Czechoslovakia; Rochester, USA). On a methodological level, the study demonstrates that life event methodologies originating in the developed countries can be adapted for international studies and may be used to collect reasonably reliable and comparable cross-cultural data on psychosocial factors affecting the course of schizophrenic disorders. Substantive findings replicate the results of prior studies which conclude that socioenvironmental stressors may precipitate schizophrenic attacks and such events tend to cluster in the two to three week period immediately preceding illness onset.The paper was prepared by these authors on behalf of the collaborating investigators listed on page 196.     

The Relative Impacts of Disease on Health Status and Capability Wellbeing: A Multi-Country Study

Background

Evaluations of the impact of interventions for resource allocation purposes commonly focus on health status. There is, however, also concern about broader impacts on wellbeing and, increasingly, on a person''s capability. This study aims to compare the impact on health status and capability of seven major health conditions, and highlight differences in treatment priorities when outcomes are measured by capability as opposed to health status.

Methods

The study was a cross-sectional four country survey (n = 6650) of eight population groups: seven disease groups with: arthritis, asthma, cancer, depression, diabetes, hearing loss, and heart disease and one health population ‘comparator’ group. Two simple self-complete questionnaires were used to measure health status (EQ-5D-5L) and capability (ICECAP-A). Individuals were classified by illness severity using condition-specific questionnaires. Effect sizes were used to estimate: (i) the difference in health status and capability for those with conditions, relative to a healthy population; and (ii) the impact of the severity of the condition on health status and capability within each disease group.

Findings

5248 individuals were included in the analysis. Individuals with depression have the greatest mean reduction in both health (effect size, 1.26) and capability (1.22) compared to the healthy population. The effect sizes for capability for depression are much greater than for all other conditions, which is not the case for health. For example, the arthritis group effect size for health (1.24) is also high and similar to that of depression, whereas for the same arthritis group, the effect size for capability is much lower than that for depression (0.55). In terms of severity within disease groups, individuals categorised as ''mild'' have similar capability levels to the healthy population (effect sizes <0.2, excluding depression) but lower health status than the healthy population (≥0.4).

Conclusion

Significant differences exist in the relative effect sizes across diseases when measured by health status and capability. In terms of treating morbidity, a shift in focus from health gain to capability gain would increase funding priorities for patients with depression specifically and severe illnesses more generally.     

Monitoring HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Cameroon: A Study Following the Revised World Health Organization Recommendations

Background

The majority (>95%) of new HIV infection occurs in resource-limited settings, and Cameroon is still experiencing a generalized epidemic with ~122,638 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). A detrimental outcome in scaling-up ART is the emergence HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), suggesting the need for pragmatic approaches in sustaining a successful ART performance.

Methods

A survey was conducted in 15 ART sites of the Centre and Littoral regions of Cameroon in 2013 (10 urban versus 05 rural settings; 8 at tertiary/secondary versus 7 at primary healthcare levels), evaluating HIVDR-early warning indicators (EWIs) as-per the 2012 revised World Health Organization’s guidelines: EWI₁ (on-time pill pick-up), EWI₂ (retention in care), EWI₃ (no pharmacy stock-outs), EWI₄ (dispensing practices), EWI₅ (virological suppression). Poor performance was interpreted as potential HIVDR.

Results

Only 33.3% (4/12) of sites reached the desirable performance for “on-time pill pick-up” (57.1% urban versus 0% rural; p<0.0001) besides 25% (3/12) with fair performance. 69.2% (9/13) reached the desirable performance for “retention in care” (77.8% urban versus 50% rural; p=0.01) beside 7.7% (1/13) with fair performance. Only 14.4% (2/13) reached the desirable performance of “no pharmacy stock-outs” (11.1% urban versus 25% rural; p=0.02). All 15 sites reached the desirable performance of 0% “dispensing mono- or dual-therapy”. Data were unavailable to evaluate “virological suppression” due to limited access to viral load testing (min-max: <1%-15%). Potential HIVDR was higher in rural (57.9%) compared to urban (27.8%) settings, p=0.02; and at primary (57.9%) compared to secondary/tertiary (33.3%) healthcare levels, p=0.09.

Conclusions

Delayed pill pick-up and pharmacy stock-outs are major factors favoring HIVDR emergence, with higher risks in rural settings and at primary healthcare. Retention in care appears acceptable in general while ART dispensing practices are standard. There is need to support patient-adherence to pharmacy appointments while reinforcing the national drug supply system.     

A Mixed Method to Evaluate Burden of Malaria Due to Flooding and Waterlogging in Mengcheng County,China: A Case Study

Background

Malaria is a highly climate-sensitive vector-borne infectious disease that still represents a significant public health problem in Huaihe River Basin. However, little comprehensive information about the burden of malaria caused by flooding and waterlogging is available from this region. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of flooding and waterlogging on the burden of malaria in a county of Anhui Province, China.

Methods

A mixed method evaluation was conducted. A case-crossover study was firstly performed to evaluate the relationship between daily number of cases of malaria and flooding and waterlogging from May to October 2007 in Mengcheng County, China. Stratified Cox models were used to examine the lagged time and hazard ratios (HRs) of the risk of flooding and waterlogging on malaria. Years lived with disability (YLDs) of malaria attributable to flooding and waterlogging were then estimated based on the WHO framework of calculating potential impact fraction in the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results

A total of 3683 malaria were notified during the study period. The strongest effect was shown with a 25-day lag for flooding and a 7-day lag for waterlogging. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased risk of malaria was significantly associated with flooding alone [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)  = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.257, 1.713], waterlogging alone (AHR = 1.879, 95% CI = 1.696, 2.121), and flooding and waterlogging together (AHR = 2.926, 95% CI = 2.576, 3.325). YLDs per 1000 of malaria attributable to flooding alone, waterlogging alone and flooding and waterlogging together were 0.009 per day, 0.019 per day and 0.022 per day, respectively.

Conclusion

Flooding and waterlogging can lead to higher burden of malaria in the study area. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of malaria epidemics after these two weather disasters.     

Wildlife Mortality Investigation and Disease Research: Contributions of the USGS National Wildlife Health Center to Endangered Species Management and Recovery

The U.S. Geological Survey—National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) provides diagnostic services, technical assistance, applied research, and training to federal, state, territorial, and local government agencies and Native American tribes on wildlife diseases and wildlife health issues throughout the United States and its territories, commonwealth, and freely associated states. Since 1975, >16,000 carcasses and specimens from vertebrate species listed under the Endangered Species Act have been submitted to NWHC for determination of causes of morbidity or mortality or assessment of health/disease status. Results from diagnostic investigations, analyses of the diagnostic database, technical assistance and consultation, field investigation of epizootics, and wildlife disease research by NWHC wildlife disease specialists have contributed importantly to the management and recovery of listed species.     

Standardization of the method proposed by the World Health Organization for determining the susceptibility levels of leishmaniasis vectors to insecticides

The WHO method for determining insecticide resistance was standardized for several species of Lutzomyia sand flies under laboratory and field conditions. The biological assays were applied solely to optimize the conditions for the control, i.e., without insecticide, and to estimate mortality due to handling or other unfavorable conditions. Adult female flies from 3 laboratory colonies and one field strain were tested: two laboratory strains of Lutzomyia longipalpis, one laboratory strain of Lutzomyia serrana and one field-collected strain of Lutzomyia quasitownsendi. The WHO method was compared with one modified in which, during the post-exposure period, the recommended plain tube apparatus was replaced with a plastic container layered with damp plaster of Paris. Three paper substrate types were compared under each condition: olive oil additive, silicon oil additive and plain paper. The measured variable was percent mortality in 24 h. For the WHO protocol, the L. longipalpis strains indicated a 0-10% mortality, L. serrana 20-80% and L. quasitownsendi 10-50%. With the modified WHO apparatus, the average mortality was < 4% for all species. No significant differences were observed among the paper treatments. These results indicate a strong species-specific effect of post-exposure conditions on sand flies. To establish baseline levels of insecticide resistance in Lutzomyia sand flies, the WHO method is recommended only for L. longipalpis, and the modified method for L. serrana, L. quasitownsendi and closely related species.     

The Association between Health System Development and the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease: An Analysis of WHO Country Profiles

Background

Several risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been identified in recent decades. However, the association between the health system and the burden of CVD has not yet been sufficiently researched. The objective of this study was to analyse the association between health system development and the burden of CVD, in particular CVD-related disability-adjusted life–years (DALYs).

Methods

Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed models were applied to country-level data collected by the World Bank and World Health Organization. Response variables were the age-standardized CVD mortality and age-standardized CVD DALY rates.

Results

The amount of available health system resources, indicated by total health expenditures per capita, physician density, nurse density, dentistry density, pharmaceutical density and the density of hospital beds, was associated with reduced CVD DALY rates and CVD mortality. However, in the multivariate models, the density of nurses and midwives was positively associated with CVD. High out-of-pocket costs were associated with increased CVD mortality in both univariate and multivariate analyses.

Conclusion

A highly developed health system with a low level of out-of-pocket costs seems to be the most appropriate to reduce the burden of CVD. Furthermore, an efficient balance between human health resources and health technologies is essential.     

Using Modelling to Disentangle the Relative Contributions of Zoonotic and Anthroponotic Transmission: The Case of Lassa Fever

Background

Zoonotic infections, which transmit from animals to humans, form the majority of new human pathogens. Following zoonotic transmission, the pathogen may already have, or may acquire, the ability to transmit from human to human. With infections such as Lassa fever (LF), an often fatal, rodent-borne, hemorrhagic fever common in areas of West Africa, rodent-to-rodent, rodent-to-human, human-to-human and even human-to-rodent transmission patterns are possible. Indeed, large hospital-related outbreaks have been reported. Estimating the proportion of transmission due to human-to-human routes and related patterns (e.g. existence of super-spreaders), in these scenarios is challenging, but essential for planned interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we make use of an innovative modeling approach to analyze data from published outbreaks and the number of LF hospitalized patients to Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone to estimate the likely contribution of human-to-human transmission. The analyses show that almost of the cases at KGH are secondary cases arising from human-to-human transmission. However, we found much of this transmission is associated with a disproportionally large impact of a few individuals (‘super-spreaders’), as we found only of human cases result in an effective reproduction number (i.e. the average number of secondary cases per infectious case) , with a maximum value up to .

Conclusions/Significance

This work explains the discrepancy between the sizes of reported LF outbreaks and a clinical perception that human-to-human transmission is low. Future assessment of risks of LF and infection control guidelines should take into account the potentially large impact of super-spreaders in human-to-human transmission. Our work highlights several neglected topics in LF research, the occurrence and nature of super-spreading events and aspects of social behavior in transmission and detection.