Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa

Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the ‘Swiss Cheese’ nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22–53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.     

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival,inhibits juvenile growth,and alters species distribution projections under climate change

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life‐cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.     

Space‐for‐time is not necessarily a substitution when monitoring the distribution of pelagic fishes in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta

Occupancy models are often used to analyze long‐term monitoring data to better understand how and why species redistribute across dynamic landscapes while accounting for incomplete capture. However, this approach requires replicate detection/non‐detection data at a sample unit and many long‐term monitoring programs lack temporal replicate surveys. In such cases, it has been suggested that surveying subunits within a larger sample unit may be an efficient substitution (i.e., space‐for‐time substitution). Still, the efficacy of fitting occupancy models using a space‐for‐time substitution has not been fully explored and is likely context dependent. Herein, we fit occupancy models to Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) catch data collected by two different monitoring programs that use the same sampling gear in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta, USA. We demonstrate how our inferences concerning the distribution of these species changes when using a space‐for‐time substitution. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space‐for‐time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering how the unique characteristics of monitoring programs influences inferences, which has broad implications for how to appropriately leverage existing long‐term monitoring data to understand the distribution of species.     

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.     

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal–grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal–grassland transition zone.Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models.Summer maximum temperatures (T _max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T _mean) and maximum (T _max) temperatures on steep, north‐facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T _max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T _mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T _min by up to 2°C, relative to non‐forested areas.Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness.Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.     

Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change

The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006–2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896–2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.     

A single heat-stress bout induces rapid and prolonged heat acclimation in the California mussel,Mytilus californianus

Climate change is not only causing steady increases in average global temperatures but also increasing the frequency with which extreme heating events occur. These extreme events may be pivotal in determining the ability of organisms to persist in their current habitats. Thus, it is important to understand how quickly an organism''s heat tolerance can be gained and lost relative to the frequency with which extreme heating events occur in the field. We show that the California mussel, Mytilus californianus—a sessile intertidal species that experiences extreme temperature fluctuations and cannot behaviourally thermoregulate—can quickly (in 24–48 h) acquire improved heat tolerance after exposure to a single sublethal heat-stress bout (2 h at 30 or 35°C) and then maintain this improved tolerance for up to three weeks without further exposure to elevated temperatures. This adaptive response improved survival rates by approximately 75% under extreme heat-stress bouts (2 h at 40°C). To interpret these laboratory findings in an ecological context, we evaluated 4 years of mussel body temperatures recorded in the field. The majority (approx. 64%) of consecutive heat-stress bouts were separated by 24–48 h, but several consecutive heat bouts were separated by as much as 22 days. Thus, the ability of M. californianus to maintain improved heat tolerance for up to three weeks after a single sublethal heat-stress bout significantly improves their probability of survival, as approximately 33% of consecutive heat events are separated by 3–22 days. As a sessile animal, mussels likely evolved the capability to rapidly gain and slowly lose heat tolerance to survive the intermittent, and often unpredictable, heat events in the intertidal zone. This adaptive strategy will likely prove beneficial under the extreme heat events predicted with climate change.     

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.     

Habitat heterogeneity affects the thermal ecology of an endangered lizard

Global climate change is already contributing to the extirpation of numerous species worldwide, and sensitive species will continue to face challenges associated with rising temperatures throughout this century and beyond. It is especially important to evaluate the thermal ecology of endangered ectotherm species now so that mitigation measures can be taken as early as possible. A recent study of the thermal ecology of the federally endangered Blunt‐nosed Leopard Lizard (Gambelia sila) suggested that they face major activity restrictions due to thermal constraints in their desert habitat, but that large shade‐providing shrubs act as thermal buffers to allow them to maintain surface activity without overheating. We replicated this study and also included a population of G. sila with no access to large shrubs to facilitate comparison of the thermal ecology of G. sila populations in shrubless and shrubbed sites. We found that G. sila without access to shrubs spent more time sheltering inside rodent burrows than lizards with access to shrubs, especially during the hot summer months. Lizards from a shrubbed site had higher midday body temperatures and therefore poorer thermoregulatory accuracy than G. sila from a shrubless site, suggesting that greater surface activity may represent a thermoregulatory trade‐off for G. sila. Lizards at both sites are currently constrained from using open, sunny microhabitats for much of the day during their short active seasons, and our projections suggest that climate change will exacerbate these restrictions and force G. sila to use rodent burrows for shelter even more than they do now, especially at sites without access to shrubs. The continued management of shrubs and of burrowing rodents at G. sila sites is therefore essential to the survival of this endangered species.     

Climate Warming May Facilitate Invasion of the Exotic Shrub Lantana camara

Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35°N and 35°S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22°C, 26°C and 30°C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26°C and 30°C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara.     

Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species

Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.     

Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”?

Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a “climate trap”—a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re‐emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring‐emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below‐ and near‐ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree‐hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring‐emergence timing. Trends in annual‐emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post‐emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this “climate trap” was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.     

Combined Non-Target Effects of Insecticide and High Temperature on the Parasitoid Bracon nigricans

We studied the acute toxicity and the sublethal effects, on reproduction and host-killing activity, of four widely used insecticides on the generalist parasitoid Bracon nigricans (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a natural enemy of the invasive tomato pest, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). Laboratory bioassays were conducted applying maximum insecticide label rates at three constant temperatures, 25, 35 and 40°C, considered as regular, high and very high, respectively. Data on female survival and offspring production were used to calculate population growth indexes as a measure of population recovery after pesticide exposure. Spinetoram caused 80% mortality at 25°C and 100% at higher temperatures, while spinosad caused 100% mortality under all temperature regimes. Cyantraniliprole was slightly toxic to B. nigricans adults in terms of acute toxicity at the three temperatures, while it did not cause any sublethal effects in egg-laying and host-killing activities. The interaction between the two tested factors (insecticide and temperature) significantly influenced the number of eggs laid by the parasitoid, which was the lowest in the case of females exposed to chlorantraniliprole at 35°C. Furthermore, significantly lower B. nigricans demographic growth indexes were estimated for all the insecticides under all temperature conditions, with the exception of chlorantraniliprole at 25°C. Our findings highlight an interaction between high temperatures and insecticide exposure, which suggests a need for including natural stressors, such as temperature, in pesticide risk assessments procedures.     

Too Hot to Sleep? Sleep Behaviour and Surface Body Temperature of Wahlberg’s Epauletted Fruit Bat

The significance of sleep and factors that affect it have been well documented, however, in light of global climate change the effect of temperature on sleep patterns has only recently gained attention. Unlike many mammals, bats (order: Chiroptera) are nocturnal and little is known about their sleep and the effects of ambient temperature (T_a) on their sleep. Consequently we investigated seasonal temperature effects on sleep behaviour and surface body temperature of free-ranging Wahlberg’s epauletted fruit bat, Epomophorus wahlbergi, at a tree roost. Sleep behaviours of E. wahlbergi were recorded, including: sleep duration and sleep incidences (i.e. one eye open and both eyes closed). Sleep differed significantly across all the individuals in terms of sleep duration and sleep incidences. Individuals generally spent more time awake than sleeping. The percentage of each day bats spent asleep was significantly higher during winter (27.6%), compared with summer (15.6%). In summer, 20.7% of the sleeping bats used one eye open sleep, and this is possibly the first evidence of one-eye-sleep in non-marine mammals. Sleep duration decreased with extreme heat as bats spent significantly more time trying to cool by licking their fur, spreading their wings and panting. Skin temperatures of E. wahlbergi were significantly higher when T_a was ≥35°C and no bats slept at these high temperatures. Consequently extremely hot days negatively impact roosting fruit bats, as they were forced to be awake to cool themselves. This has implications for these bats given predicted climate change scenarios.     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling

The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation‐associated and temperature‐associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km² of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km². F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi''s protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species.     

Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming

There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.     

Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change.     

Jack-of-all-trades: phenotypic plasticity facilitates the invasion of an alien slug species

Invasive alien species might benefit from phenotypic plasticity by being able to (i) maintain fitness in stressful environments (‘robust’), (ii) increase fitness in favourable environments (‘opportunistic’), or (iii) combine both abilities (‘robust and opportunistic’). Here, we applied this framework, for the first time, to an animal, the invasive slug, Arion lusitanicus, and tested (i) whether it has a more adaptive phenotypic plasticity compared with a congeneric native slug, Arion fuscus, and (ii) whether it is robust, opportunistic or both. During one year, we exposed specimens of both species to a range of temperatures along an altitudinal gradient (700–2400 m a.s.l.) and to high and low food levels, and we compared the responsiveness of two fitness traits: survival and egg production. During summer, the invasive species had a more adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and at high temperatures and low food levels, it survived better and produced more eggs than A. fuscus, representing the robust phenotype. During winter, A. lusitanicus displayed a less adaptive phenotype than A. fuscus. We show that the framework developed for plants is also very useful for a better mechanistic understanding of animal invasions. Warmer summers and milder winters might lead to an expansion of this invasive species to higher altitudes and enhance its spread in the lowlands, supporting the concern that global climate change will increase biological invasions.     

Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecologically Important Climate Variables at Coarse and Fine Scales in a High-Snow Mountain Landscape

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.