基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究

利用石羊河流域4个气象站1960—2013年逐月降水量资料,应用标准化降水指数(SPI)、游程理论等方法,分析石羊河流域近54年的气候干湿变化及不同时间尺度干旱事件时空演变特征。结果表明:1不同时间尺度SPI对降水量变化的敏感程度存在较大差异,时间尺度越小,SPI对一次降水的反应越明显。2石羊河流域年代际、年际和季的SPI在波动中均呈增加趋势,其中,冬季湿润化速度最快,对年湿润化过程的贡献最显著。31960—2013年,石羊河流域不同时间尺度干旱事件持续时间、干旱程度和干旱强度均呈减少趋势,且波动渐趋平缓;石羊河流域农业干旱和水文干旱最严重的时期分别为1964—1965年和1962—1964年。4两种时间尺度干旱事件持续时间的减少速度从上游至下游均逐渐变慢,上游乌鞘岭地区是农业干旱持续时间最长区域,永昌和下游民勤地区是水文干旱持续时间较长区域;两种时间尺度干旱事件干旱程度减少速度最快区域均在上游乌鞘岭地区;武威和民勤地区3月尺度干旱强度稍有上升,其它地区不同时间尺度干旱事件干旱强度均呈下降趋势,永昌地区是多尺度干旱事件干旱强度较大区域。     

华北地区2001-2014年植被变化对SPEI气象干旱指数多尺度的响应

近年降水量的减少以及全球气候变暖的影响导致我国华北区域干旱程度加剧,影响植被生长状况,使得区域生态环境恶化。基于华北地区2001-2014年的TRMM及MODIS数据,以归一化植被指数NDVI、净初级生产力NPP、植被状态指数VCI作为植被状况表征指数,以标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI作为气象干旱表征指数,对华北地区近年的气象干旱及植被状况时空变化进行评价,并分析植被对干旱的多尺度响应。结果表明：（1）华北地区干旱在西南部地区呈明显加重趋势,东北部地区干旱状况有所好转;针对不同时间尺度的SPEI表示干旱的变化趋势,得出月份尺度干旱呈现干湿交替特征,选取SPEI时间尺度越长,干旱化趋势越明显;（2）NDVI与NPP所反馈的植被长势空间分布略有差异,总体而言华北地区植被状况大部分地区呈好转趋势,但研究区中部部分地区及部分沿海地区植被状况转差;（3）植被状况指数与SPEI指数在大部分地区呈正相关,NPP与SPEI的相关性强于NDVI与SPEI的相关性,且相关程度在草原地区及中高海拔地区最高,林地对干旱的敏感度最弱;各植被类型在植被生长季的多数月份对SPEI-3响应最明显,且在夏季相关程度最高,夏季及其前期的季尺度干旱更易影响植被生长状况,SPEI-12对植被的影响主要表现为影响植被生长季初期的植被状态。     

Digital image analysis of different crown shape of Platycladus orientalis

Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco is a beautifully crown-shaped evergreen tree species used for ornamental cultivation. These trees are also important afforestation plants at hill sites containing calcareous parent rocks and exhibit high tolerance to drought and barren sites. However, Platycladus orientalis trees with abnormal crowns, such as fusiform and torch-form, have been identified at sites with extreme drought and barren hills in Shandong, China, although the abnormal crowns does not reduce the ornamental value of these trees. In the present study, we used the RGB imaging and geographical statistical analyses through the construction of meteorological indices. The results indicate that variations of abnormal Platycladus orientalis crowns are associated with both the internal metabolism of these trees and the external environment. Crown shapes are strongly affected by the local dry, hot and windy meteorological environment, particularly individuals planted at poor hill site conditions. In response to extreme events of drought, high temperature and strong winds, the twigs and scale leaves of Platycladus orientalis typically wilt from the lower part to the upper part of the crown. The fusiform and torch-form crowns are formed through the wilting of partial twigs and scale leaves to avoid the entire wilt of the trees, thereby saving the life of the tree at the expense of partial twigs and scale leaves.     

基于NDVI的云南省2009-2010年干旱遗产效应研究

气候变化正导致干旱事件发生的强度、频度显著改变,极端气候事件发生的不确定性直接影响陆地生态系统关键生态过程。我国西南地区在2009-2010年发生百年一遇的极端干旱,目前关于植被生长在长时间尺度对此次干旱事件的响应尚不明确。以云南省为研究区,基于多年Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)影像数据以及长时间序列气象资料对此次极端事件的干旱遗产效应开展研究,分析了干旱遗产效应的持续时间以及不同植被类型的响应差异。结果表明:1)云南省植被生长在极端干旱事件发生后受到的抑制时间大约持续1-2年,受影响区域主要集中在遭遇降水严重减少的地区;2)海拔2000 m附近为植被对干旱响应最为敏感的区域,海拔高于4000 m的植被生长几乎未受到干旱影响;3)较之草地和农田,森林植被受到的抑制作用更为强烈。研究揭示了极端干旱对云南省植被生长造成的影响,为该地区未来应对极端干旱并有效开展植被恢复提供理论依据。     

Drought-induced tree growth decline in the desert margins of Northwestern China

Water deficiency is the primary limiting factor for tree growth in arid and semi-arid areas. Droughts associated with rising temperatures have increased in severity and frequency globally over the past few decades, making the trees in the drought-prone sites first be affected by water shortages. However, our understanding of tree growth status in these areas, and of their response to drought, is currently insufficient; especially in the context of global warming. Here, we studied 94 Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) and 86 spruce (Picea crassifolia) trees from different altitudes [2,100–2400 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] distributed at the desert margins of Northwestern China to explore tree growth and drought response from multiple perspectives using dendroecological approaches. Significant growth decline, across all tree species and altitudes, was detected in response to an interdecadal trend towards a drier climate. Moreover, the extent of tree growth decline, the proportion of affected trees, and the degree of moisture dependence have all tended to increase in each sample site, most likely due to enhanced drought severity and duration in recent decades. The more sensitive and susceptible trees were found at lower elevations (drier sites) and may signify a higher vulnerability to heating-induced drought stress. Tree resistance to drought showed strong negative correlation with drought severity across all sample sites. However, the connection between post-drought tree resilience and drought intensity is weak, perhaps because the samples were all collected from living trees, while those that had died were not sampled. The priority for future work should be to combine surviving and dead trees simultaneously, thus achieving a more representative view of tree resilience to drought; this will improve our knowledge of forest dynamics and even ecosystem succession in these vulnerable and sensitive environments.     

Overstorey–Understorey Interactions Intensify After Drought-Induced Forest Die-Off: Long-Term Effects for Forest Structure and Composition

Severe drought events increasingly affect forests worldwide, but little is known about their long-term effects at the ecosystem level. Competition between trees and herbs (‘overstorey–understorey competition’) for soil water can reduce tree growth and regeneration success and may thereby alter forest structure and composition. However, these effects are typically ignored in modelling studies. To test the long-term impact of water competition by the herbaceous understorey on forest dynamics, we incorporated this process in the dynamic forest landscape model LandClim. Simulations were performed both with and without understorey under current and future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in a drought-prone inner-Alpine valley in Switzerland. Under current climate, herbaceous understorey reduced tree regeneration biomass by up to 51%, particularly in drought-prone landscape positions (i.e., south-facing, low-elevation slopes), where it also caused a shift in forest composition towards drought-tolerant tree species (for example, Quercus pubescens). For adult trees, the understorey had a minor effect on growth. Under future climate change scenarios, increasing drought frequency and intensity resulted in large-scale mortality of canopy trees, which intensified the competitive interaction between the understorey and tree regeneration. At the driest landscape positions, a complete exclusion of tree regeneration and a shift towards an open, savannah-like vegetation occurred. Overall, our results demonstrate that water competition by the herbaceous understorey can cause long-lasting legacy effects on forest structure and composition across drought-prone landscapes, by affecting the vulnerable recruitment phase. Ignoring herbaceous vegetation may thus lead to a strong underestimation of future drought impacts on forests.     

华北地区冬小麦灌溉制度及其环境效应研究进展

充分利用有限的灌溉水资源确保冬小麦安全生产是华北地区冬小麦稳产高产面临的严峻挑战,解决这一问题的关键在于如何基于环境效应科学地进行灌溉管理。综述了国内外有关冬小麦的灌溉管理制度,即充分灌溉与非充分灌溉管理制度以及冬小麦关键灌溉期的环境效应,在此基础上提出了华北地区冬小麦科学灌溉拟重点关注的研究任务:(1)冬小麦生长发育需水时间与需水量的控制机制研究;(2)冬小麦干旱发生发展过程与致灾临界气象条件研究;(3)气候变化背景下极端干旱事件的冬小麦脆弱性诊断与适应性管理,以为华北地区冬小麦安全生产措施制定提供依据。     

中国旅游业碳排放效率的空间格局及其影响因素

旅游业碳排放效率作为旅游业绿色全要素生产率指标,是衡量旅游业碳排放与旅游经济增长之间关系的重要工具。借助SBM模型测算了中国省际旅游业碳排放效率,并利用ESDA和GWR方法分析了旅游业碳排放效率的空间格局及其影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明:中国旅游业碳排放效率呈现缓慢提升态势,但总体水平仍较低。旅游业碳排放效率的空间集聚特征明显,形成了以上海为中心的高值集聚区和以西北省份为中心的低值集聚区。旅游业碳排放效率及其空间格局演化是多因素共同作用的结果,旅游经济规模对中西部地区旅游业碳排放效率的提升作用较强;城镇化的促进作用逐步减弱,且在多数省份开始产生抑制作用;技术效应的提升作用高值区从中东部转移至华北和东北地区;旅游业产权结构对南部地区的推动作用也逐步凸显;结构效应主要对西南地区起促进作用。这为优化和提升旅游业碳排放效率提供了理论依据。     

Extreme drought effects on nonstructural carbohydrates of dominant plant species in a meadow grassland

植物光合作用产生的非结构性碳水化合物(NSCs)水平可以反映植物和生态系统对环境变化的响应程度。近年来, 草原极端干旱事件的发生频率和持续时间增加趋势明显, 对生态系统结构和功能产生深远影响。该研究以内蒙古呼伦贝尔草甸草原为研究对象, 通过连续4年减少66%生长季降水量的控制实验来模拟极端干旱事件, 分析草原6种优势物种和植物功能群NSCs各组分对极端干旱的响应规律与机制。结果显示, 由于植物生物学、光合特性以及生理生态等特性的差异, 不同物种对干旱胁迫的响应具有明显差异。这表明草地植物NSCs组分及其利用策略对干旱胁迫的响应具有物种特异性, 从而导致其生物量的不同响应。将6种植物分为禾草和非禾草两类, 发现干旱显著增加了禾草的淀粉含量, 但对其可溶性糖含量无显著影响; 相反, 干旱显著增加了非禾草功能群的可溶性糖含量, 对其淀粉含量无显著影响, 表明不同功能群采取了不同的干旱应对策略。禾草选择将光合作用固定的能量进行储存以应对干旱胁迫, 其生物量对干旱响应不敏感; 而非禾草选择将能量以可溶性糖的形式直接供植物生长利用以及抵御干旱胁迫, 其生物量对干旱响应较为敏感。这一发现可为预测在全球气候变化背景下草甸草原生态系统结构与功能对极端干旱的响应提供科学参考。     

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees’ phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long‐term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree‐level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree‐, site‐, and drought‐related factors and their interactions driving the tree‐level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree‐ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid‐elevation and low productivity sites from 1980–1999 to 2000–2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree‐level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long‐term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.     

极端干旱对草甸草原优势植物非结构性碳水化合物的影响

植物光合作用产生的非结构性碳水化合物(NSCs)水平可以反映植物和生态系统对环境变化的响应程度。近年来, 草原极端干旱事件的发生频率和持续时间增加趋势明显, 对生态系统结构和功能产生深远影响。该研究以内蒙古呼伦贝尔草甸草原为研究对象, 通过连续4年减少66%生长季降水量的控制实验来模拟极端干旱事件, 分析草原6种优势物种和植物功能群NSCs各组分对极端干旱的响应规律与机制。结果显示, 由于植物生物学、光合特性以及生理生态等特性的差异, 不同物种对干旱胁迫的响应具有明显差异。这表明草地植物NSCs组分及其利用策略对干旱胁迫的响应具有物种特异性, 从而导致其生物量的不同响应。将6种植物分为禾草和非禾草两类, 发现干旱显著增加了禾草的淀粉含量, 但对其可溶性糖含量无显著影响; 相反, 干旱显著增加了非禾草功能群的可溶性糖含量, 对其淀粉含量无显著影响, 表明不同功能群采取了不同的干旱应对策略。禾草选择将光合作用固定的能量进行储存以应对干旱胁迫, 其生物量对干旱响应不敏感; 而非禾草选择将能量以可溶性糖的形式直接供植物生长利用以及抵御干旱胁迫, 其生物量对干旱响应较为敏感。这一发现可为预测在全球气候变化背景下草甸草原生态系统结构与功能对极端干旱的响应提供科学参考。     

A drought rarity and evapotranspiration-based index as a suitable agricultural drought indicator

Agricultural drought has a substantial impact on crop yields and, thus, food security within the context of global climate change. Therefore, efforts should focus on agricultural drought detection and monitoring. Agricultural drought is identified as unusually dry conditions in which severe water stress impedes crop growth. Thus, the crop water deficit severity and rarity are both key factors in agricultural drought detection and are rarely considered simultaneously in existing drought indices. To overcome this limitation, an integrated agricultural drought index (IADI) based on drought rarity and evapotranspiration is proposed. As an important grain production base, Northeast China has suffered from frequent droughts in recent years, demonstrating an urgent need for accurate drought monitoring. In this study, the superiority of the IADI as an agricultural drought indicator through the detection of the severity and rarity was tested using the drought disaster area (DDA) and grain yield, and its performance was compared to that of the evaporative drought index (EDI), an indicator that accounts for only the water deficit severity. The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and its impact on the grain yield were further analyzed. The results showed that (1) the IADI can effectively capture the drought variability and identify drought events by combining the detection of the severity and rarity. (2) The R² value between the DDA and IADI (0.72) was higher than that with the EDI (0.50), and the same result was found in a comparative analysis using the grain yield, showing that the IADI is a suitable indicator for agricultural drought assessment. (3) Severe and extreme meteorological droughts and extreme agricultural droughts in western Jilin and western Liaoning were more frequent than in other regions, highlighting the agricultural drought tendency and sensitivity to precipitation deficit in this region. (4) The impacts of agricultural drought on grain yield in three provinces of Northeast China vary greatly during the crop-growing period, with the most significant impacts occurring from May to July. Therefore, this period represents the critical crop water requirement period, and timely irrigation should be ensured during this period.     

Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease

Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors—proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river—collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect I. scapularis already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where I. scapularis will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.     

Extreme weather events and plant–plant interactions: shifts between competition and facilitation among grassland species in the face of drought and heavy rainfall

Biotic interactions play an important role in ecosystem function and structure in the face of global climate change. We tested how plant–plant interactions, namely competition and facilitation among grassland species, respond to extreme drought and heavy rainfall events. We also examined how the functional composition (grasses, forbs, legumes) of grassland communities influenced the competition intensity for grass species when facing extreme events. We exposed experimental grassland communities of different functional compositions to either an extreme single drought event or to a prolonged heavy rainfall event. Relative neighbour effect, relative crowding and interaction strength were calculated for five widespread European grassland species to quantify competition. Single climatic extremes caused species specific shifts in plant–plant interactions from facilitation to competition or vice versa but the nature of the shifts varied depending on the community composition. Facilitation by neighbouring plants was observed for Arrhenatherum elatius when subjected to drought. Contrarily, the facilitative effect of neighbours on Lotus corniculatus was transformed into competition. Heavy rainfall increased the competitive effect of neighbours on Holcus lanatus and Lotus corniculatus in communities composed of three functional groups. Competitive pressure on Geranium pratense and Plantago lanceolata was not affected by extreme weather events. Neither heavy rainfall nor extreme drought altered the overall productivity of the grassland communities. The complementary responses in competition intensity experienced by grassland species under drought suggest biotic interactions as one stabilizing mechanism for overall community performance. Understanding competitive dynamics under fluctuating resources is important for assessing plant community shifts and degree of stability of ecosystem functions.     

Drought effects on volatile organic compound emissions from Scots pine stems

Tree stems have been identified as sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play important roles in tree defence and atmospheric chemistry. Yet, we lack understanding on the magnitude and environmental drivers of stem VOC emissions in various forest ecosystems. Due to the increasing importance of extreme drought, we studied drought effects on the VOC emissions from mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stems. We measured monoterpenes, acetone, acetaldehyde and methanol emissions with custom-made stem chambers, online PTR-MS and adsorbent sampling in a drought-prone forest over the hot-dry summer of 2018 and compared the emission rates and dynamics between trees in naturally dry conditions and under long-term irrigation (drought release). The pine stems were significant monoterpene sources. The stem monoterpene emissions potentially originated from resin, based on their similar monoterpene spectra. The emission dynamics of all VOCs followed temperature at a daily scale, but monoterpene and acetaldehyde emission rates decreased nonlinearly with drought over the summer. Despite the dry conditions, large peaks of monoterpene, acetaldehyde and acetone emissions occurred in late summer potentially due to abiotic or biotic stressors. Our results highlight the potential importance of stem emissions in the ecosystem VOC budget, encouraging further studies in diverse environments.     

Abiotic factors modulate post-drought growth resilience of Scots pine plantations and rear-edge Scots pine and oak forests

The proportion of planted forests in the Mediterranean Basin is one of the largest in the world. These plantations are dominated by pine species and present a series of characteristics such as low elevation, high competition or small tree size that make them more vulnerable to droughts. However, quantitative assessments of their post-drought growth resilience in accordance with species, site factors and tree characteristics are lacking. In this study we sampled 164 trees at four forest sites located in the drought-prone Sierra Nevada, southeastern Spain. We compared growth responsiveness to drought in rear-edge planted vs. relic natural Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and coexisting Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica) stands. Our objective was to characterize and compare the different growth responses to drought between species and sites and the effect of the main physiographic factors (altitude, aspect, and slope) on these responses since the influence of these factors on post-drought resistance and resilience has received little attention to date. Our results reveal that the planted pine sites with the lowest mean growth rates displayed greater resistance during drought, and that higher altitude was associated with improved resistance and/or resilience for all species and sites. Natural pine and Pyrenean oak stands were better adapted to the dry climatic conditions of the Mediterranean region where the study was undertaken, displaying greater resistance and/or resilience and lower influence of drought on growth in comparison to stands of planted pines. These results suggest that promoting the conservation of high-elevation pine plantations and enhancing the regeneration of natural pine and oak may improve the resistance and resilience of these drought-prone forest ecosystems.     

Recurring weather extremes alter the flowering phenology of two common temperate shrubs

The aim of this study is to explore the effects of heavy rain and drought on the flowering phenology of two shrub species Genista tinctoria and Calluna vulgaris. We conducted a field experiment over five consecutive years in Central Europe, applying annually recurring extreme drought and heavy rain events on constructed shrubland communities and recorded the flowering status. Further, we correlated spring temperature and precipitation with the onset of flowering. Both species showed a response to extreme weather events: drought delayed the mid flowering date of Genista tinctoria in 3 of 5 years by about 1 month and in 1 year advanced the mid flowering date by 10 days, but did not affect the length of flowering. Mid flowering date of Calluna vulgaris was not affected by drought, but the length of flowering was extended in 2 years by 6 and 10 days. For C. vulgaris the closer the drought occurred to the time of flowering, the larger the impact on the flowering length. Heavy rainfall advanced mid flowering date and reduced the length of flowering of Genista tinctoria by about 2 months in 1 year. Mid flowering date of Calluna vulgaris was not affected by heavy rain, but the length of flowering was reduced in 1 year by 4 days. Our data suggest that extreme weather events, including alterations to the precipitation regime, induce phenological shifts of plant species of a substantial magnitude. Thus, the impacts of climate extremes on plant life cycles may be as influential as gradual warming. Particularly, the variability in the timing of precipitation events appears to have a greater influence on flowering dynamics than the magnitude of the precipitation.     

基于SPEI指数的华北冬麦区干旱时空分布特征分析

气候变化的背景下,华北地区干旱化趋势不断加剧。利用华北冬麦区45个气象站1961—2010逐月温度与降水数据,选取标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)作为区域干旱指数进行华北冬麦区近50年干旱时空特征分析。研究表明:(1)近50年来华北地区平均温度明显上升,研究区整体呈现干旱化加剧趋势。华北地区平均SPEI指数对于典型干旱年份的表征准确,与历史资料相符合。(2)华北不同区域之间增温率不同,导致干旱化趋势存在差异。通过对典型站点的分析,发现增温率越大的区域干旱化趋势越严重。(3)不同等级干旱发生的站次比能够较好地反映不同年型干旱的发生特点。对SPEI指数矩阵的EOF分析结果显示出华北地区典型的干旱时空分布特征,第一模态呈现全区旱涝变化一致型的分布形式,高值区包括山东西部、河南北部、河北南部地区,表明这些地区对干旱的反应最为敏感。时间系数序列未显示出明显的变化趋势;第二模态呈现南北相反的分布型,河北及山东的大部分地区空间系数均为正值,而河南大部分地区为负值。时间系数序列整体呈下降趋势,表明研究区北部干旱化趋势加剧,南部干旱化有所缓解;第三模态呈现东西相反的分布形式,这种分布特征的变化趋势不明显。     

Assessing the remotely sensed Drought Severity Index for agricultural drought monitoring and impact analysis in North China

Remote sensing can provide real-time and dynamic information for terrestrial ecosystems, facilitating effective drought monitoring. A recently proposed remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (DSI), integrating both vegetation condition and evapotranspiration information, shows considerable potential for drought monitoring at the global scale. However, there has been little research on regional DSI applications, especially concerning agricultural drought. As the most important winter wheat producing region in China, North China has suffered from frequent droughts in recent years, demonstrating high demand for efficient agricultural drought monitoring and drought impact analyses. In this paper, the capability of the MODIS DSI for agricultural drought monitoring was evaluated and the drought impacts on winter wheat yield were assessed for 5 provinces in North China. First, the MODIS DSI was compared with precipitation and soil moisture at the province level to examine its capability for characterizing moisture status. Then specifically for agricultural drought monitoring, the MODIS DSI was evaluated against agricultural drought severity at the province level. The impacts of agricultural drought on winter wheat yield during the main growing season were also explored using 8-day MODIS DSI data. Overall, the MODIS DSI is generally effective for characterizing moisture conditions at the province level, with varying ability during the main winter wheat growing season and the best relationship observed in April during the jointing and booting stages. The MODIS DSI agrees well with agricultural drought severity at the province level, with better performance in rainfed-dominated than irrigation-dominated regions. Drought shows varying impacts on winter wheat yield at different stages of the main growing season, with the most significant impacts found during the heading and grain-filling stages, which could be used as the key alert period for effective agricultural drought monitoring.     

利用GARP生态位模型预测日本松干蚧在中国的地理分布

采用GARP生态位模型预测分析了松属植物的重要入侵害虫日本松干蚧Matsucoccus matsumurae（Kuwana）在中国的潜在地理分布。对现有分布地点的分析表明：日本松干蚧在 我国的扩散蔓延有三个主要阶段, 即零散分布期、逐步扩散期和迅速蔓延期。全国范围内的预测显示：该虫可以在中国27个省、市、自治区生存,主要集中在东北和东部沿海地区;在全国 扩散的趋势是向内陆发展。对辽宁省和吉林省地进一步预测分析验证了该方法的准确性,其蔓 延趋势与全国的预测结果相一致;同时还确定了6个高度危险区和13个影响该虫扩散的关键区。