Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp)

Background Tools and methods able to cope with uncertainties are essential for improving the credibility of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as a decision support tool. Previous approaches have focussed predominately upon data quality. Objective and Scope. An epistemological approach is presented conceptualising uncertainties in a comparative, prospective, attributional LCA. This is achieved by considering a set of cornerstone scenarios representing future developments of an entire Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) product system. We illustrate the method using a comparison of future transport systems. Method Scenario modelling is organized by means of Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA), which provides a set of possible and consistent scenarios of those unit processes of an LCI product system which are time dependent and of environmental importance. Scenarios are combinations of levels of socio-economic or technological impact variables. Two core elements of FSA are applied in LCI scenario modelling. So-called impact matrix analysis is applied to determine the relationship between unit process specific socio-economic variables and technology variables. Consistency Analysis is employed to integrate unit process scenarios, based on pair-wise ratings of the consistency of the levels of socio-economic impact variables of all unit processes. Two software applications are employed which are available from the authors. Results and Discussion The study reveals that each possible level or development of a technology variable is best conceived of as the impact of a specific socio-economic (sub-) scenario. This allows for linking possible future technology options within the socio-economic context of the future development of various background processes. In an illustrative case study, the climate change scores and nitrogen dioxide scores per seat kilometre for six technology options of regional rail transport are compared. Similar scores are calculated for a future bus alternative and an average Swiss car. The scenarios are deliberately chosen to maximise diversity. That is, they represent the entire range of future possible developments. Reference data and the unit process structure are taken from the Swiss LCA database 'ecoinvent 2000'. The results reveal that rail transport remains the best option for future regional transport in Switzerland. In all four assessed scenarios, four technology options of future rail transport perform considerably better than regional bus transport and car transport. Conclusions and Recommendations. The case study demonstrates the general feasibility of the developed approach for attributional prospective LCA. It allows for a focussed and in-depth analysis of the future development of each single unit process, while still accounting for the requirements of the final scenario integration. Due to its high transparency, the procedure supports the validation of LCI results. Furthermore, it is well-suited for incorporation into participatory methods so as to increase their credibility. Outlook and Future Work. Thus far, the proposed approach is only applied on a vehicle level not taking into account alterations in demand and use of different transport modes. Future projects will enhance the approach by tackling uncertainties in technology assessment of future transport systems. For instance, environmental interventions involving future maglev technology will be assessed so as to account for induced traffic generated by the introduction of a new transport system.     

Life cycle assessment of industrial symbiosis: A critical review of relevant reference scenarios

This paper highlights the methods and parameters used to define and design a reference scenario to be compared with an industrial symbiosis (IS) scenario using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. To this end, a critical review was conducted of 26 peer‐reviewed papers using LCA in the field of IS. The analysis focuses on the definition and design of reference scenarios through five cross‐analyses to determine correlations between the type and the number of reference scenarios and the type of IS scenarios studied and also some LCA characteristics such as the functional unit, the type of data used, and the use of sensitivity analysis. Results show that the definition of reference scenarios depends mainly on the type of IS scenario considered. For a current IS developed at an industrial scale, the suitable reference scenario is mainly a hypothetical nonsymbiotic reference scenario. For a prospective IS, the suitable reference scenario is mainly a current nonsymbiotic reference scenario. Due to this critical review, the problem of variability of reference scenarios emerges. To resolve it, the authors analyze different reference scenarios or use sensitivity analysis. What is more, territorial aspects are rarely taken into account in the design of reference scenarios. It is clearly a gap for LCA of IS because of the influence of territorial factors. The new research challenge is to include the consideration of territorial aspects to define and design the worst‐ and best‐case reference scenarios to assess strict environmental performances of IS.     

Application of life cycle assessment in environmental labelling

The present state of worldwide discussions of how to apply LCA in environmental labelling, taking into account the current ISO 14 020 and ISO 14 024 works, is described. There is a consensus to use LCA as a tool for more scientific environmental labelling. The examples presented verify some practical possibilities to realise this approach. As a background to different stages of practical labelling, results from LCA studies are already used in the German “Blue Angel” scheme, e.g. for the definition of the scope in one product category, for the priorisation of specific life cycle phases and criteria, as a basis to establish a scoring system or to emphasise the importance of information on how to use environmentally sound products. Practical examples are presented in detail for hand-drying systems, paper products, milk packages, household equipment, televisions and detergents. Some future perspectives are mentioned. Presentation at “The Second International Conference on EcoBalance - The New Stage of LCA as a Common Language”, Nov. 18, 19 and 20, 1996 Tsukuba, Japan     

基于FLUS与InVEST模型的北京市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

城市地区虽然只占世界陆地面积的2%,却产生了全球约75%的碳排放,而科学合理的土地利用和管理方式可以重新固定大约60%-70%已耗损的碳。因此基于土地利用类型核算碳储量并探究城市土地利用变化其对碳储量的影响,能够揭示碳储量时空变化规律,为双碳目标下国土空间规划提供科学依据。基于1990-2018年北京市土地利用数据,利用InVEST模型测算1990-2018年北京市碳储量变化,再利用FLUS模型,分别测算自然演变情景、人口疏解城市发展情景、绿色集约生态保护情景3个城市发展情景下的土地利用变化,接着采用InVEST模型预测2035年3种情景下的碳储量变化,最后借助空间自相关模型对其进行分区管理研究,并基于此提出北京市未来城市发展与低碳城市建设规划建议。基于研究得出以下结果：（1）2000-2010年是碳流失较严重时期,碳储量下降了4.3%,而2010年后碳流失相对缓和,且在2015年后得到明显改善,2010年至2018年碳储量提升了3.5%。（2）除自然演变情景外,两种情景下的未来碳储量预测值均会进一步增加,且绿色集约生态保护情景的碳储量预测值最高,为16.39×10⁶ t,比最低的自然演变情景高出7.5×10⁵ t。（3）局部空间自相关分析结果显示,3种情景下的碳储量值在空间分布上具有相似性,碳储量高值区域在城市北部、西北部及西部区域出现集聚,低值区域则在中心城区聚集。     

沈阳某冶炼厂废弃厂区的人类健康风险评价

以沈阳某冶炼厂废弃厂区重金属污染监测为依据,采用美国环保局最新的人类健康风险评价标准方法对沈阳某冶炼厂废弃地块污染土壤进行了评价,并且假设未来该土地利用类型为工业用地(Ⅰ)或休闲用地(Ⅱ).评价结果显示:工业用地(Ⅰ)和休闲用地(Ⅱ)的累积非致癌风险指数分别为2.65×10-2和3.67×10-2;工业用地(Ⅰ)和休闲用地(Ⅱ)由呼吸摄入Cd造成的潜在致癌风险指数分别为4.48×10-9和7.30×10-10,不会对在该地区工作和休闲的人们造成身体健康上的伤害;无论是工业用地假设还是休闲用地假设,由无机铜造成的人类健康风险在整个风险中所占的比例最大;由美国环保局的人类健康风险评价方法反推得出的冶炼厂地块未来为工业用地的土壤修复目标值均小于我国工业企业土壤环境质量风险评价基准值.     

Discussion on methods to include prevention activities in waste management LCA

Purpose

Waste prevention has been assigned increasing attention worldwide during recent years, and it is expected to become one of the core elements of waste management planning in the near future. In this framework, this paper presents and discusses two possible LCA approaches for the evaluation of the environmental and energetic performance of municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems which include the effects of waste prevention activities.

Methods

The two approaches are conceived for the comparison of waste management scenarios including waste prevention activities with baseline scenarios without waste prevention. For both of them, the functional unit is defined and the system boundaries are described with reference to different typologies of waste prevention activities identified in an extensive review. The procedure for the calculation of the LCA impacts of scenarios is also reported and an example illustrating the processes to be included in system boundaries for a specific waste prevention activity is provided.

Results and discussion

The presented approaches lead to the same result in terms of difference between the LCA impacts of a waste prevention scenario and of a baseline one. However, because of the partially different upstream system boundaries, different values of the impacts of single scenarios are obtained and the application of the two approaches is more suitable in different situations and in analyses with different purposes. The methodological aspects that can complicate the applicability of the two approaches are discussed lastly.

Conclusions

The environmental and energetic performance of MSW management scenarios including waste prevention activities can be evaluated with the two LCA approaches presented in this paper. They can be used for many purposes such as, among the most general, evaluating the upstream and downstream environmental consequences of implementing particular waste prevention activities in a given waste management system, complementing waste reduction indicators with LCA-based indicators and supporting with quantitative evidence the strategic and policy relevance of waste prevention.     

A Stochastic Approach to Model Dynamic Systems in Life Cycle Assessment

This article presents a framework to evaluate emerging systems in life cycle assessment (LCA). Current LCA methods are effective for established systems; however, lack of data often inhibits robust analysis of future products or processes that may benefit the most from life cycle information. In many cases the life cycle inventory (LCI) of a system can change depending on its development pathway. Modeling emerging systems allows insights into probable trends and a greater understanding of the effect of future scenarios on LCA results. The proposed framework uses Bayesian probabilities to model technology adoption. The method presents a unique approach to modeling system evolution and can be used independently or within the context of an agent‐based model (ABM). LCA can be made more robust and dynamic by using this framework to couple scenario modeling with life cycle data, analyzing the effect of decision‐making patterns over time. Potential uses include examining the changing urban metabolism of growing cities, understanding the development of renewable energy technologies, identifying transformations in material flows over space and time, and forecasting industrial networks for developing products. A switchgrass‐to‐energy case demonstrates the approach.     

Life cycle assessment of composite packaging waste management—a Chinese case study on aseptic packaging

Purpose

Approximately 46,000 t/day of packaging waste was generated in China in 2010, of which, 2,500 t was composite packaging waste. Due to the lack of recycling technology and an imperfect recovery system, most of this waste is processed in sanitary landfills. An effective packaging waste management system is needed since this waste not only uses up valuable resources, but also increases environmental pollution. The purpose of this study is to estimate the environmental impact of the treatment scenarios in composite packaging waste which are commonly used in China, to determine the optimum composite packaging waste management strategy, and to design new separating and recycling technology for composite packaging, based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) results.

Methods

To identify the best treatment for composite packaging waste, the LCA software SimaPro 7.1.6 was used to assist in the analysis of the environmental impacts, coupled with the impact assessment method Eco-Indicator 99. LCA for composite packaging waste management was carried out by estimating the environmental impacts of the four scenarios most often used in China: landfill, incineration, paper recycling, and separation of polyethylene and aluminum. One ton of post-consumption Tetra Pak waste was selected as the functional unit. The data on the mass, energy fluxes, and environmental emissions were obtained from literature and site investigations.

Results and discussion

Landfill—scenario 1—was the worst waste management option. Paper recycling—scenario 3—was more environmentally friendly than incineration, scenario 2. Scenario 4, separating out polyethylene and aluminum, was established based on the LCA result, and inventory data were obtained from the demonstration project built by this research. In scenario 4, the demonstration project for the separation of polyethylene and aluminum was built based on the optimum conditions from single-factor and orthogonal experiments. Adding this flow process into the life cycle of composite packaging waste treatment decreased the environmental impacts significantly.

Conclusions

The research results can provide useful scientific information for policymakers in China to make decisions regarding composite packaging waste. Incineration could reduce more environmental impacts in the respiratory inorganics category, and separation of polyethylene and aluminum, in the fossil fuel category. If energy saving is the primary governmental goal, the separation of polyethylene and aluminum would be the better choice, while incineration would be the better choice for emission reduction.     

Selection of a remediation scenario for a diesel-contaminated site using LCA

Goal and Scope A comparison of in situ and ex situ treatment scenarios for a diesel-contaminated site was performed using an evolutive LCA. Treatment time along with primary (residual contamination left in soil or groundwater after treatment) and secondary (impacts due to remediation) environmental impacts were considered. The site under study had a light Non Aqueous Phase Liquid (LNAPL) thickness of up to 1 m, a diesel soil concentration of 10,500 mg/kg and a residual contamination in groundwater. Methods Four treatment scenarios to remove LNAPL and to treat soil and groundwater were compared: 1) pump and treat 2) bioslurping, bioventing and biosparging 3) bioslurping, bioventing and chemical oxidation and 4) ex situ treatment using biopiles. The technologies’ design was performed using simulation tools and analytical equations. The LCA was evaluated for each year of treatment. Environmental impacts were assessed using the U.S. EPA Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) method. Results and Discussion The biological in situ scenario (2) showed the least primary and secondary impacts but its treatment time was more than 4 times longer than that obtained for the ex situ scenario (4). The ex situ scenario showed the best treatment time but its secondary impacts were significantly higher than those found for the biological in situ scenario due to the pavement of the treatment area. The combined biological and chemical in situ scenario (3) was the worst in terms of secondary impacts while the pump and treat scenario (1) was the worst in terms of primary impacts. Two scenarios were selected: one based upon low environmental impacts and the other on the fastest treatment time. Conclusions Even without excavation, an in situ treatment can generate more secondary impacts than an ex situ treatment. Low environmental impact scenarios require time while rapid treatment scenarios generate high environmental impacts. The selection of the best remediation scenario will depend on the site owner’s priority. Recommendations Better characterization factors for aggregated substances are required. This paper is openly accessible!     

Identifying Stakeholders’ Views on the Eco‐efficiency Assessment of a Municipal Solid Waste Management System

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is one of the most popular methods of technical‐environmental assessment for informing environmental policies, as, for instance, in municipal solid waste (MSW) management. Because MSW management involves many stakeholders with possibly conflicting interests, the implementation of an LCA‐based policy can, however, be blocked or delayed. A stakeholder assessment of future scenarios helps identify conflicting interests and anticipate barriers of sustainable MSW management systems. This article presents such an approach for Swiss waste glass‐packaging disposal, currently undergoing a policy review. In an online survey, stakeholders (N = 85) were asked to assess disposal scenarios showing different LCA‐based eco‐efficiencies with respect to their desirability and probability of occurrence. Scenarios with higher eco‐efficiency than the current system are more desirable and considered more probable than those with lower eco‐efficiency. A combination of inland recycling and downcycling to foam glass (insulation material) in Switzerland is desired by all stakeholders and is more eco‐efficient than the current system. In contrast, institutions of MSW management, such as national and regional environmental protection agencies, judge a scenario in which nearly all cullet would be recycled in the only Swiss glass‐packaging factory as more desirable than supply and demand stakeholders of waste glass‐packaging. Such a scenario involves a monopsony rejected by many municipalities and scrap traders. Such an assessment procedure can provide vital information guiding the formulation of environmental policies.     

Dynamic life cycle assessment: framework and application to an institutional building

Purpose

This paper uses a dynamic life cycle assessment (DLCA) approach and illustrates the potential importance of the method using a simplified case study of an institutional building. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have consistently found that energy consumption in the use phase of a building is dominant in most environmental impact categories. Due to the long life span of buildings and potential for changes in usage patterns over time, a shift toward DLCA has been suggested.

Methods

We define DLCA as an approach to LCA which explicitly incorporates dynamic process modeling in the context of temporal and spatial variations in the surrounding industrial and environmental systems. A simplified mathematical model is used to incorporate dynamic information from the case study building, temporally explicit sources of life cycle inventory data and temporally explicit life cycle impact assessment characterization factors, where available. The DLCA model was evaluated for the historical and projected future environmental impacts of an existing institutional building, with additional scenario development for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of future impacts.

Results and discussion

Results showed that overall life cycle impacts varied greatly in some categories when compared to static LCA results, generated from the temporal perspective of either the building's initial construction or its recent renovation. From the initial construction perspective, impacts in categories related to criteria air pollutants were reduced by more than 50 % when compared to a static LCA, even though nonrenewable energy use increased by 15 %. Pollution controls were a major reason for these reductions. In the future scenario analysis, the baseline DLCA scenario showed a decrease in all impact categories compared with the static LCA. The outer bounds of the sensitivity analysis varied from slightly higher to strongly lower than the static results, indicating the general robustness of the decline across the scenarios.

Conclusions

These findings support the use of dynamic modeling in life cycle assessment to increase the relevance of results. In some cases, decision making related to building design and operations may be affected by considering the interaction of temporally explicit information in multiple steps of the LCA. The DLCA results suggest that in some cases, changes during a building's lifetime can influence the LCA results to a greater degree than the material and construction phases. Adapting LCA to a more dynamic approach may increase the usefulness of the method in assessing the performance of buildings and other complex systems in the built environment.     

Modeling process and material alternatives in life cycle assessments

Background, Aims and Scope  Although LCA is frequently used in product comparison, many practitioners are interested in identifying and assessing improvements within a life cycle. Thus, the goals of this work are to provide guidelines for scenario formulation for process and material alternatives within a life cycle inventory and to evaluate the usefulness of decision tree and matrix computational structures in the assessment of material and process alternatives. We assume that if the analysis goal is to guide the selection among alternatives towards reduced life cycle environmental impacts, then the analysis should estimate the inventory results in a manner that: (1) reveals the optimal set of processes with respect to minimization of each impact of interest, and (2) minimizes and organizes computational and data collection needs. Methods  A sample industrial system is used to reveal the complexities of scenario formulation for process and material alternatives in an LCI. The system includes 4 processes, each executable in 2 different ways, as well as 1 process able to use 2 different materials interchangeably. We formulate and evaluate scenarios for this system using three different methods and find advantages and disadvantages with each. First, the single branch decision tree method stays true to the typical construction of decision trees such that each branch of the tree represents a single scenario. Next, the process flow decision tree method strays from the typical construction of decision trees by following the process flow of the product system, such that multiple branches are needed to represent a single scenario. In the final method, disaggregating the demand vector, each scenario is represented by separate vectors which are combined into a matrix to allow the simultaneous solution of the inventory problem for all scenarios. Results  For both decision tree and matrix methods, scenario formulation, data collection, and scenario analysis are facilitated in two ways. First, process alternatives that cannot actually be chosen should be modeled as sub-inventories (or as a complete LCI within an LCI). Second, material alternatives (e.g., a choice between structural materials) must be maintained within the analysis to avoid the creation of artificial multi-functional processes. Further, in the same manner that decision trees can be used to estimate ‘expected value’ (the sum of the probability of each scenario multiplied by its ‘value’), we find that expected inventory and impact results can be defined for both decision tree and matrix methods. Discussion  For scenario formulation, naming scenarios in a way that differentiate them from other scenarios is complex and important in the continuing development of LCI data for use in databases or LCA software. In the formulation and assessment of scenarios, decision tree methods offer some level of visual appeal and the potential for using commercially available software/ traditional decision tree solution constructs for estimating expected values (for relatively small or highly aggregated product systems). However, solving decision tree systems requires the use of sequential process scaling which is difficult to formalize with mathematical notation. In contrast, preparation of a demand matrix does not require use of the sequential method to solve the inventory problem but requires careful scenario tracking efforts. Conclusions  Here, we recognize that improvements can be made within a product system. This recognition supports the greater use of LCA in supply chain formation and product research, development, and design. We further conclude that although both decision tree and matrix methods are formulated herein to reveal optimal life cycle scenarios, the use of demand matrices is preferred in the preparation of a formal mathematical construct. Further, for both methods, data collection and assessment are facilitated by the use of sub-inventories (or as a complete LCI within an LCI) for process alternatives and the full consideration of material alternatives to avoid the creation of artificial multi-functional processes. Recommendations and Perspectives  The methods described here are used in the assessment of forest management alternatives and are being further developed to form national commodity models considering technology alternatives, national production mixes and imports, and point-to-point transportation models. ESS-Submission Editor: Thomas Gloria, PhD (t.gloria@fivewinds.com)     

基于生命周期方法的生活垃圾资源化利用系统生态效率分析

我国生活垃圾产量大但处理能力不足,产生多种环境危害,对其资源化利用能够缓解环境压力并回收资源。为探讨生活垃圾资源化利用策略,综合生命周期评价与生命周期成本分析方法,建立生态效率模型。以天津市为例,分析和比较焚烧发电、卫生填埋-填埋气发电、与堆肥+卫生填埋3种典型生活垃圾资源化利用情景的生态效率。结果表明,堆肥+卫生填埋情景具有潜在最优生态效率;全球变暖对总环境影响贡献最大,而投资成本对经济影响贡献最大。考虑天津市生活垃圾管理现状,建议鼓励发展生活垃圾干湿组分分离及厨余垃圾堆肥的资源化利用策略。     

Life cycle assessment of construction materials: the influence of assumptions in end-of-life modelling

Purpose

The nature of end-of-life (EoL) processes is highly uncertain for constructions built today. This uncertainty is often neglected in life cycle assessments (LCAs) of construction materials. This paper tests how EoL assumptions influence LCA comparisons of two alternative roof construction elements: glue-laminated wooden beams and steel frames. The assumptions tested include the type of technology and the use of attributional or consequential modelling approaches.

Methods

The study covers impact categories often considered in the construction industry: total and non-renewable primary energy demand, water depletion, global warming, eutrophication and photo-chemical oxidant creation. The following elements of the EoL processes are tested: energy source used in demolition, fuel type used for transportation to the disposal site, means of disposal and method for handling allocation problems of the EoL modelling. Two assumptions regarding technology development are tested: no development from today’s technologies and that today’s low-impact technologies have become representative for the average future technologies. For allocating environmental impacts of the waste handling to by-products (heat or recycled material), an attributional cut-off approach is compared with a consequential substitution approach. A scenario excluding all EoL processes is also considered.

Results and discussion

In all comparable scenarios, glulam beams have clear environmental benefits compared to steel frames, except for in a scenario in which steel frames are recycled and today’s average steel production is substituted, in which impacts are similar. The choice of methodological approach (attributional, consequential or fully disregarding EoL processes) does not seem to influence the relative performance of the compared construction elements. In absolute terms, four factors are shown to be critical for the results: whether EoL phases are considered at all, whether recycling or incineration is assumed in the disposal of glulam beams, whether a consequential or attributional approach is used in modelling the disposal processes and whether today’s average technology or a low-impact technology is assumed for the substituted technology.

Conclusions

The results suggest that EoL assumptions can be highly important for LCA comparisons of construction materials, particularly in absolute terms. Therefore, we recommend that EoL uncertainties are taken into consideration in any LCA of long-lived products. For the studied product type, LCA practitioners should particularly consider EoL assumptions regarding the means of disposal, the expected technology development of disposal processes and any substituted technology and the choice between attributional and consequential approaches.     

Combining industrial ecology tools to assess potential greenhouse gas reductions of a circular economy: Method development and application to Switzerland

Industrial ecology (IE) methodologies, such as input/output or material flow analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA), are often used for the environmental evaluation of circular economy strategies. Up to now, an approach that utilizes these methods in a systematic, integrated framework for a holistic assessment of a geographic region's sustainable circular economy potential has been lacking. The approach developed in this study (IE4CE approach) combines IE methodologies to determine the environmental impact mitigation potential of circular economy strategies for a defined geographic region. The approach foresees five steps. First, input/output analysis helps identify sectors with high environmental impacts. Second, a refined analysis is conducted using material flow and LCA. In step 3, circular strategies are used for scenario design and evaluated in step 4. In step 5, the assessment results are compiled and compared across sectors. The approach was applied to a case study of Switzerland, analyzing 8 sectors and more than 30 scenarios in depth. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) from waste incineration, biogas and cement production, food waste prevention in households, hospitality and production, and the increased recycling of plastics had the highest mitigation potential. Most of the scenarios do not influence each other. One exception is the CCS scenarios: waste avoidance scenarios decrease the reduction potential of CCS. A combination of scenarios from different sectors, including their impact on the CCS scenario potential, led to an environmental impact mitigation potential of 11.9 Mt CO₂-eq for 2050, which equals 14% of Switzerland's current consumption-based impacts.     

Electrical and electronic components in the automotive sector: Economic and environmental assessment

Background Aims and Scope Automotive electrical and electronic systems (EES) comprise an area that has grown steadily in importance in the past decade and will continue to gain relevance in the foreseeable future. For this reason, the SEES project (Sustainable Electrical & Electronic System for the Automotive Sector) aims to contribute to cost-effective and eco-efficient EES components. Scenarios for the recovery of automotive EES are defined by taking into consideration the required improvements in EES design and the development and implementation of new technologies. The research project SEES is funded by the European Commission (Contract no. TST3-CT-2003-506075) within the Sixth Framework Programme, priority 6.2 (see 〈www.sees-project.net〉 for more information). This paper presents the findings of an assessment of the environmental and economic improvements for automotive EES from a system perspective, taking into account all life cycle steps. Methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) case studies have been employed within the SEES project to define optimum design and end-of-life scenarios. These case studies have been applied to two selected EES components: an engine wire harness and a smart junction box, both manufactured by LEAR and assembled in an existing Ford car model. The component design has a significant impact on the product system and its processes, including its use and end-of-life (EOL) phase. For each of the analysed components, two potential design alternatives have been compared with the original design, based on designers’ recommendations from the status quo scenario results. These include the use of alternative wiring systems with a reduced copper content (flat flexible cable), lead-free solder alloys and new fixation mechanisms to facilitate disassembly. The overall EOL scenario determines the technologies of processes that must be modelled within the EOL phase of a product system. The analysed end-of-life scenarios include: status quo car recycling and two alternatives: 1. disassembly for specific EES component recycling; 2. advanced post-shredder recycling of shredding residues. The influences of the different design and EOL treatment scenarios on the LCA and LCC results have been analysed. Results The most dominant life cycle phases for the LCA results are manufacturing (including raw material extraction and manufacturing of materials and components) and the use-phase. Similarly, manufacturing was the predominant phase during the LCC study. Disassembly costs were shown to be significant during the EOL phase. Among the analysed design alternatives, the highest environmental improvement potential were gained from the use of alternative wiring systems with reduced weight and copper content, but with slightly increased life cycle costs. Smaller differences of the results were determined for the different end-of-life scenarios. Discussion The results of the EOL scenario depend on the component in question. The influence of variations in process data, model choices, e.g. which LCIA model was used for calculating the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), which inventory data for copper production was used and other variables have been assessed in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates a strong dependency of results for HTP on the selected model. The presented results are based on a public report of the SEES project. The study has undergone a critical review by an external expert according to ISO 14040, § 7.3.2. Conclusions The environmental impacts during the life cycle of the analysed products are generally most strongly influenced by material production and the use phase of the products. In comparison, improvements during the EOL phase have only a very limited potential to reduce environmental impacts. The studied design changes displayed clear environmental advantages for (lighter) flat, flexible cables. Whereas, the lead-free solder design alternatives showed a slight increase in some environmental impact categories. The application of these design changes has been limited in some cases by technical issues. Recommendations and Perspectives Focussing only on end-of-life improvements cannot be recommended for automotive EES products. A life-cycle perspective should be utilised for assessing improvements in individual life cycle stages of a product. The presented results will be an input for Eco-design guidelines for automotive EES, to be developed at a later stage within the SEES project. ESS-Submission Editor: Dr. Lester Lave (II01@andrew.cmu.edu)     

When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.