Statistical shape modelling reveals large and distinct subchondral bony differences in osteoarthritic knees

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) results in changes such as joint-space narrowing and osteophyte formation. Radiographic classification systems group patients by the presence or absence of these gross anatomical features but are poorly correlated to function. Statistical-shape modelling (SSM) can detect subtle differences in 3D-bone geometry, providing an opportunity for accurate predictive models. The aim of this study was to describe and quantify the main modes of shape variation which distinguish end-stage OA from asymptomatic knees. Seventy-six patients with OA and 77 control participants received a CT of their knee. 3D models of the joint were created by manual segmentation. A template mesh was fitted to all meshes and rigidly aligned resulting in a set of correspondent meshes. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed to create the SSM. Logistic regression was performed on the PCA weights to distinguish morphological features of the two groups. The first 7 modes of the SSM captured >90% shape variation with 6 modes best distinguishing between OA and asymptomatic knees. OA knees displayed sub-chondral bone expansion particularly in the condyles and posterior medial tibial plateau of up to 10 mm. The model classified the two groups with 95% accuracy, 96% sensitivity, 94% specificity, and 97% AUC. There were distinct features which differentiated OA from asymptomatic knees. Further research will elucidate how magnitude and location of shape changes in the knee influence clinical and functional outcomes.     

Interlimb symmetry of dynamic knee joint stiffness and co-contraction is maintained in early stage knee osteoarthritis

Individuals with knee OA often exhibit greater co-contraction of antagonistic muscle groups surrounding the affected joint which may lead to increases in dynamic joint stiffness. These detrimental changes in the symptomatic limb may also exist in the contralateral limb, thus contributing to its risk of developing knee osteoarthritis. The purpose of this study is to investigate the interlimb symmetry of dynamic knee joint stiffness and muscular co-contraction in knee osteoarthritis.Muscular co-contraction and dynamic knee joint stiffness were assessed in 17 subjects with mild to moderate unilateral medial compartment knee osteoarthritis and 17 healthy control subjects while walking at a controlled speed (1.0 m/s). Paired and independent t-tests determined whether significant differences exist between groups (p < 0.05).There were no significant differences in dynamic joint stiffness or co-contraction between the OA symptomatic and OA contralateral group (p = 0.247, p = 0.874, respectively) or between the OA contralateral and healthy group (p = 0.635, p = 0.078, respectively). There was no significant difference in stiffness between the OA symptomatic and healthy group (p = 0.600); however, there was a slight trend toward enhanced co-contraction in the symptomatic knees compared to the healthy group (p = 0.051).Subjects with mild to moderate knee osteoarthritis maintain symmetric control strategies during gait.     

Long term evaluation of disease progression through the quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis patients: correlation with clinical symptoms and radiographic changes

The objective of this study was to further explore the cartilage volume changes in knee osteoarthritis (OA) over time using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI). These were correlated with demographic, clinical, and radiological data to better identify the disease risk features. We selected 107 patients from a large trial (n = 1,232) evaluating the effect of a bisphosphonate on OA knees. The MRI acquisitions of the knee were done at baseline, 12, and 24 months. Cartilage volume from the global, medial, and lateral compartments was quantified. The changes were contrasted with clinical data and other MRI anatomical features. Knee OA cartilage volume losses were statistically significant compared to baseline values: -3.7 ± 3.0% for global cartilage and -5.5 ± 4.3% for the medial compartment at 12 months, and -5.7 ± 4.4% and -8.3 ± 6.5%, respectively, at 24 months. Three different populations were identified according to cartilage volume loss: fast (n = 11; -13.2%), intermediate (n = 48; -7.2%), and slow (n = 48; -2.3%) progressors. The predictors of fast progressors were the presence of severe meniscal extrusion (p = 0.001), severe medial tear (p = 0.005), medial and/or lateral bone edema (p = 0.03), high body mass index (p < 0.05, fast versus slow), weight (p < 0.05, fast versus slow) and age (p < 0.05 fast versus slow). The loss of cartilage volume was also slightly associated with less knee pain. No association was found with other Western Ontario McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores, joint space width, or urine biomarker levels. Meniscal damage and bone edema are closely associated with more cartilage volume loss. These data confirm the significant advantage of qMRI for reliably measuring knee structural changes at as early as 12 months, and for identifying risk factors associated with OA progression.     

Dietary fatty acid intake affects the risk of developing bone marrow lesions in healthy middle-aged adults without clinical knee osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study

Introduction  

Fatty acids have been implicated in osteoarthritis (OA), yet the mechanism by which fatty acids affect knee structure and consequently the risk of knee OA has not been fully elucidated. Higher intakes of fatty acids have been shown to be associated with the risk of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) in a healthy population. The aim of this study was to examine the association between fatty acid consumption and the incidence of BMLs in healthy middle-aged adults without clinical knee OA.     

Association Between Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of DOT1L Gene and Risk of Knee Osteoarthritis in a Chinese Han Population

To investigate associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms rs12982744 and rs12459350 in the DOT1L gene and knee osteoarthritis (OA) susceptibility in a Chinese Han population. DOT1L rs12982744 and rs12459350 polymorphisms were genotyped in patients with knee OA and age- and sex-matched OA-free controls from a Chinese Han population. A total of 605 patients with knee OA and 615 controls were enrolled in the study. GC and CC genotypes of rs12982744, and variant C, were associated with a significantly increased risk of knee OA. On stratification analysis, the association between the risk of OA and rs12982744 GC heterozygotes compared with GG homozygotes was stronger in females and those aged >65 years. In contrast, the GA and AA genotypes of rs12459350 were not significantly associated with the risk of knee OA, even after further stratification analysis according to age or sex. Our results showed that DOT1L rs12982744 G to C change and variant C genotype may contribute to knee OA risk in a Chinese Han population.     

Knee contact force in subjects with symmetrical OA grades: Differences between OA severities

In using musculoskeletal models, researchers can calculate muscle forces, and subsequently joint contact forces, providing insight into joint loading and the progression of such diseases as osteoarthritis (OA). The purpose of this study was to estimate the knee contact force (KCF) in patients with varying degrees of OA severity using muscle forces and joint reaction forces derived from OpenSim. Walking data was obtained from healthy individuals (n=14) and those with moderate (n=10) and severe knee OA (n=2). For each subject, we generated 3D, muscle-actuated, forward dynamic simulations of the walking trials. Muscle forces that reproduced each subject’s gait were calculated. KCFs were then calculated using the vector sum of the muscle forces and joint reaction forces along the longitudinal axis of the femur. Moderate OA subjects exhibited a similar KCF pattern to healthy subjects, with lower second peaks (p=0.021). Although subjects with severe OA had similar initial peak KCF to healthy and moderate OA subjects (more than 4 times BW), the pattern of the KCF was very different between groups. After an initial peak, subjects with severe OA continually unloaded the joint, whereas healthy and moderate OA subjects reloaded the knee during late stance. In subjects with symmetric OA grades, there appears to be differences in loading between OA severities. Similar initial peaks of KCF imply that reduction of peak KCF may not be a compensatory strategy for OA patients; however, reducing duration of high magnitude loads may be employed.     

Association of a BMP5 microsatellite with knee osteoarthritis: case-control study

Introduction

We aimed to explore the involvement of a multiallelic functional polymorphism in knee osteoarthritis (OA) susceptibility as a prototype of possible genetic factors escaping GWAS detection.

Methods

OA patients and controls from three European populations (Greece, Spain and the UK) adding up to 1003 patients (716 women, 287 men) that had undergone total knee joint replacement (TKR) due to severe primary OA and 1543 controls (758 women, 785 men) lacking clinical signs or symptoms of OA were genotyped for the D6S1276 microsatellite in intron 1 of BMP5. Genotype and mutiallelic trend tests were used to compare cases and controls.

Results

Significant association was found between the microsatellite and knee OA in women (P from 3.1 x10^-4 to 4.1 x10^-4 depending on the test), but not in men. Three of the alleles showed significant differences between patients and controls, one of them of increased risk and two of protection. The gender association and the allele direction of change were very concordant with those previously reported for hip OA.

Conclusions

We have found association of knee OA in women with the D6S1276 functional microsatellite that modifies in cis the expression of BMP5 making this a sounder OA genetic factor and extending its involvement to other joints. This result also shows the interest of analysing other multiallelic polymorphisms.     

An in vivo investigation of the initiation and progression of subchondral cysts in a rodent model of secondary osteoarthritis

Introduction  

Subchondral bone cysts (SBC) have been identified in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) as a cause of greater pain, loss of cartilage and increased chance of joint replacement surgery. Few studies monitor SBC longitudinally, and clinical research using three-dimensional imaging techniques, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), is limited to retrospective analyses as SBC are identified within an OA patient cohort. The purpose of this study was to use dual-modality, preclinical imaging to monitor the initiation and progression of SBC occurring within an established rodent model of knee OA.     

人膝骨关节炎软骨下骨OPN的表达及其意义

目的：通过检测人膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨中OPN的表达,探讨OPN在OA发病及病情进展中的意义。方法：选取接受膝关节置换手术的膝关节骨关节炎患者软骨下骨标本50例,采用综合评分法对OA患者进行严重程度分级,分为轻、中、重度三组,取正常膝关节软骨下骨（股骨髁关节面）10例作为正常软骨下骨对照;对标本进行免疫组织化学染色,用SPSS17．0统计软件包分析各组间OPN表达的差异及OA患者OPN表达与综合评分、K-L分期的相关性。结果：人膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨OPN表达明显高于正常软骨下骨组,差异有统计学意义（P〈0．01）;OPN在轻、中、重度膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨的表达差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05）;膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨OPN的表达与骨关节炎的综合评分、K—L分期呈正相关。结论：OA患者膝关节软骨下骨OPN表达与疾病严重程度呈正相关,提示OPN在骨关节炎发病及病情进展中可能起作用。     

Neuromuscular alterations during walking in persons with moderate knee osteoarthritis.

This paper compared the neuromuscular responses during walking between those with early-stage knee osteoarthritis (OA) to asymptomatic controls. The rationale for studying those with mild to moderate knee OA was to determine the alterations in response to dynamic loading that might be expected before severe pain, joint space narrowing and joint surface changes occur. We used pattern recognition techniques to explore both amplitude and shape changes of the surface electromyograms recorded from seven muscles crossing the knee joint of 40 subjects with knee OA and 38 asymptomatic controls during a walking task. The principal patterns for each muscle grouping explained over 83% of the variance in the waveforms. This result supported the notion that the main neuromuscular patterns were similar between asymptomatic controls and those with OA, reflecting the specific roles of the major muscles during walking. ANOVA revealed significant (p<0.05) differences in the principal pattern scores reflecting both amplitude and shape alterations in the OA group and among muscles. These differences captured subtle changes in the neuromuscular responses of the subjects with OA throughout different phases of the gait cycle and most likely reflected changes in the mechanical environment (joint loading, instability) and pain. The subjects with OA attempted to increase activity of the lateral sites and reduce activity in the medial sites, having minimal but prolonged activity during late stance. Therefore, alterations in neuromuscular responses were found even in this high functioning group with moderate knee OA.     

Long term evaluation of disease progression through the quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis patients: correlation with clinical symptoms and radiographic changes

The objective of this study was to further explore the cartilage volume changes in knee osteoarthritis (OA) over time using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI). These were correlated with demographic, clinical, and radiological data to better identify the disease risk features. We selected 107 patients from a large trial (n = 1,232) evaluating the effect of a bisphosphonate on OA knees. The MRI acquisitions of the knee were done at baseline, 12, and 24 months. Cartilage volume from the global, medial, and lateral compartments was quantified. The changes were contrasted with clinical data and other MRI anatomical features. Knee OA cartilage volume losses were statistically significant compared to baseline values: -3.7 +/- 3.0% for global cartilage and -5.5 +/- 4.3% for the medial compartment at 12 months, and -5.7 +/- 4.4% and -8.3 +/- 6.5%, respectively, at 24 months. Three different populations were identified according to cartilage volume loss: fast (n = 11; -13.2%), intermediate (n = 48; -7.2%), and slow (n = 48; -2.3%) progressors. The predictors of fast progressors were the presence of severe meniscal extrusion (p = 0.001), severe medial tear (p = 0.005), medial and/or lateral bone edema (p = 0.03), high body mass index (p < 0.05, fast versus slow), weight (p < 0.05, fast versus slow) and age (p < 0.05 fast versus slow). The loss of cartilage volume was also slightly associated with less knee pain. No association was found with other Western Ontario McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores, joint space width, or urine biomarker levels. Meniscal damage and bone edema are closely associated with more cartilage volume loss. These data confirm the significant advantage of qMRI for reliably measuring knee structural changes at as early as 12 months, and for identifying risk factors associated with OA progression.     

Asymmetries and relationships between dynamic loading,muscle strength,and proprioceptive acuity at the knees in symptomatic unilateral hip osteoarthritis

Introduction

High joint loading, knee muscle weakness, and poor proprioceptive acuity are important factors that have been linked to knee osteoarthritis (OA). We previously reported that those with unilateral hip OA and bilateral asymptomatic knees are more predisposed to develop progressive OA in the contralateral knee relative to the ipsilateral knee. In the present study, we evaluate asymmetries in muscle strength and proprioception between the limbs and also evaluate relationships between these factors and joint loading that may be associated with the asymmetric evolution of OA in this group.

Methods

Sixty-two participants with symptomatic unilateral hip OA and asymptomatic knees were evaluated for muscle strength, joint position sense and dynamic joint loads at the knees. Muscle strength and proprioception were compared between limbs and correlations between these factors and dynamic joint loading were evaluated. Subgroup analyses were also performed in only those participants that fulfilled criteria for severe hip OA.

Results

Quadriceps muscle strength was 15% greater, and in the severe subgroup, proprioceptive acuity was 25% worse at the contralateral compared to ipsilateral knee of participants with unilateral hip OA (P <0.05). In addition, at the affected limb, there was an association between decreased proprioceptive acuity and higher knee loading (Spearman’s rho = 0.377, P = 0.007) and between decreased proprioceptive acuity and decreased muscle strength (Spearman’s rho = −0.328, P = 0.016).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated asymmetries in muscle strength and proprioception between the limbs in a unilateral hip OA population. Early alterations in these factors suggest their possible role in the future development of OA at the contralateral ‘OA-predisposed knee’ in this group. Furthermore, the significant association observed between proprioception, loading, and muscle strength at the affected hip limb suggests that these factors may be interrelated.     

Association Between Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of Asporin (ASPN) and BMP5 with the Risk of Knee Osteoarthritis in a Chinese Han Population

The aim of this study was to investigate associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms rs13301537 in asporin (ASPN) and rs373444 in the bone morphogenetic protein 5 (BMP5) gene with knee osteoarthritis (OA) susceptibility in a Chinese Han population. ASPN rs13301537 and BMP5 rs373444 polymorphisms were genotyped in patients with knee OA and age- and sex-matched OA-free controls from a Chinese Han population. A total of 510 patients with knee OA and 520 controls were enrolled in the study. CT and CC genotypes of rs13301537, and variant C, were associated with a significantly increased risk of knee OA. On stratification analysis, the association between the risk of OA and rs13301537 CT heterozygotes compared with TT homozygotes was stronger in females and those aged >65 years. In contrast, the CT and CC genotypes of rs373444 in BMP5 were not significantly associated with the risk of knee OA, even after further stratification analysis according to age or sex. Our results showed that ASPN rs13301537 T to C change and variant C genotype may contribute to knee OA risk in a Chinese Han population.     

人膝骨关节炎软骨下骨OPN的表达及其意义

目的:通过检测人膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨中OPN的表达,探讨OPN在OA发病及病情进展中的意义。方法:选取接受膝关节置换手术的膝关节骨关节炎患者软骨下骨标本50例,采用综合评分法对OA患者进行严重程度分级,分为轻、中、重度三组,取正常膝关节软骨下骨(股骨髁关节面)10例作为正常软骨下骨对照;对标本进行免疫组织化学染色,用SPSS 17.0统计软件包分析各组间OPN表达的差异及OA患者OPN表达与综合评分、K-L分期的相关性。结果:人膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨OPN表达明显高于正常软骨下骨组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01);OPN在轻、中、重度膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨的表达差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);膝骨关节炎裸露软骨下骨OPN的表达与骨关节炎的综合评分、K-L分期呈正相关。结论:OA患者膝关节软骨下骨OPN表达与疾病严重程度呈正相关,提示OPN在骨关节炎发病及病情进展中可能起作用。     

Obesity profiles with knee osteoarthritis: correlation with pain, disability, disease progression

Objectives: To identify the prevalence of overweight among community‐dwelling adults diagnosed as having knee osteoarthritis (OA) and the relationship between the weight status of these individuals, selected disease‐related outcomes, and disease progression. Research Methods and Procedures: The BMIs of 82 women and 18 men with unilateral or bilateral knee OA were examined on a single occasion along with data on physical comorbidities, pain, and function and subjected to correlation analyses. BMIs from two additional samples, one that included 16 women with and without knee OA and one that included 24 women and 6 men with knee joint OA that required surgery for the subsequent onset of hip OA, were also assessed. Results: At least 80% of all present cohorts were overweight or obese. Those with higher BMIs reported more pain than those with lower BMIs (p < 0.05) and pain was related to perceived physical exertion (p < 0.05). Body mass indices were not significantly correlated with generic gait measures, but an inverse trend toward the time spent in the gait cycle (r = ?0.63; p = 0.097) that may impact the disease process was identified. Those with comorbidities had the same body mass, on average, as those with no comorbidities, and those with bilateral disease were heavier than those with unilateral disease. Discussion: A high body mass is present in most adults with knee OA. Moreover, being overweight may affect knee joint impact rates and pain incrementally. Having high body weights may heighten the risk for bilateral knee joint, as well as hip joint, OA.     

Prognostic factors for progression of clinical osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review of observational studies

IntroductionWe performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement.MethodWe searched for available observational studies up to January 2015 in Medline and Embase according to a specified search strategy. Studies that fulfilled our initial inclusion criteria were assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted and the results were pooled, or if necessary summarized according to a best evidence synthesis.ResultsOf 1,392 articles identified, 30 met the inclusion criteria and 38 determinants were investigated. Pooling was not possible due to large heterogeneity between studies. The best evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that age, ethnicity, body mass index, co-morbidity count, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected infrapatellar synovitis, joint effusion and baseline OA severity (both radiographic and clinical) are associated with clinical knee OA progression. There was moderate evidence showing that education level, vitality, pain-coping subscale resting, MRI-detected medial femorotibial cartilage loss and general bone marrow lesions are associated with clinical knee OA progression. However, evidence for the majority of determinants was limited (including knee range of motion or markers) or conflicting (including age, gender and joint line tenderness).ConclusionStrong evidence was found for multiple prognostic factors for progression of clinical knee OA. A large variety in definitions of clinical knee OA (progression) remains, which makes it impossible to summarize the evidence through meta-analyses. More research on prognostic factors for knee OA is needed using symptom progression as an outcome measure. Remarkably, only few studies have been performed using pain progression as an outcome measure. The pathophysiology of radiographic factors and their relation with symptoms should be further explored.     

Beer and wine consumption and risk of knee or hip osteoarthritis: a case control study

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to investigate the association between alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages and knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA).MethodsWe conducted a case–control study of Caucasian men and women aged 45 to 86 years of age from Nottingham, UK. Cases had clinically severe symptoms and radiographic knee or hip OA; controls had no symptoms and no radiographic knee or hip OA. Exposure information was sought using interview-based questionnaires and a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire to assess beverage consumption at ages 21 to 50 years. Odds ratios (ORs), adjusted ORs (aORs), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and P values were estimated using logistic regression models.ResultsA total of 1,001 knee OA, 993 hip OA and 933 control participants were included in the study. Increasing beer consumption was associated with an increasing risk of OA (P for trend ≤0.001). Compared to those who did not consume beer, aORs for people who consumed 20 or more servings of beer were 1.93 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.94) and 2.15 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.19) for knee OA and hip OA, respectively. In contrast, increasing levels of wine consumption were associated with decreased likelihood of knee OA (P for trend <0.001). Compared to those who did not consume wine, aOR for knee OA among those who consumed 4 to 6 glasses of wine per week and ≥7 glasses of wine per week was 0.55 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.87) and 0.48 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.80), respectively. No association was identified between non-alcoholic beverages and knee or hip OA.ConclusionsBeer consumption appears to be a risk factor for knee and hip OA whereas consumption of wine has a negative association with knee OA. The mechanism behind these findings is speculative but warrants further study.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-015-0534-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Reliability of surface electromyographic recordings during walking in individuals with knee osteoarthritis

To determine test–retest reliability of a surface electromyographic protocol designed to measure knee joint muscle activation during walking in individuals with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Twenty-one individuals with moderate medial compartment knee OA completed two gait data collections separated by approximately 1 month. Using a standardized protocol, surface electromyograms from rectus femoris plus lateral and medial sites for the gastrocnemii, vastii and hamstring muscles were recorded during walking. After full-wave rectification and low pass filtering, time and amplitude normalized (percent of maximum) waveforms were calculated. Principal component analysis (PP-scores) and co-contraction indices (CCI) were calculated from the waveforms. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC_2,k) were calculated for PP-scores and CCI’s. No differences in walking speed, knee muscle strength and symptoms were found between visits (p > 0.05). The majority of PP-scores (17 of 21) and two of four CCIs demonstrated ICC_2,k values greater than 0.81. Remaining PP-scores and CCIs had ICC_2,k values between 0.61 and 0.80. The results support that reliable EMG characteristics can be captured from a moderate knee OA patient population using a standardized protocol.     

Structural and functional changes of the articular surface in a post-traumatic model of early osteoarthritis measured by atomic force microscopy

The functional integrity of the articulating cartilage surface is a critical determinant of joint health. Although a variety of techniques exist to characterize the structural changes in the tissue with osteoarthritis (OA), some with extremely high resolution, most lack the ability to detect and monitor the functional changes that accompany the structural deterioration of this essential bearing surface. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) enables the acquisition of both structural and mechanical properties of the articular cartilage surface, with up to nanoscale resolution, making it particularly useful for evaluating the functional behavior of the macromolecular network forming the cartilage surface, which disintegrates in OA.In the present study, AFM was applied to the articular cartilage surfaces from six pairs of canine knee joints with post-traumatic OA. Microstructure (RMS roughness) and micromechanics (dynamic indentation modulus, E^?) of medial femoral condyle cartilages were compared between contralateral controls and cruciate-transected knee joints, which develop early signs of OA by three months after surgery.Results reveal a significant increase in RMS roughness and a significant four-fold decrease in E^? in cartilages from cruciate-transected joints versus contralateral controls. Compared to previous reports of changes in bulk mechanics, AFM was considerably more sensitive at detecting early cartilage changes due to cruciate-deficiency. The use of AFM in this study provides important new information on early changes in the natural history of OA because of its ability to sensitively detect and measure local structural and functional changes of the articular cartilage surface, the presumptive site of osteoarthritic initiation.     

Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA.

Methods

The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models.

Results

The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001).

Conclusions

The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk.