Analysis of spatial and yearly variation in winter survival of winter wheat

 Four years of winter survival data for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were collected on a loam soil located on the Central Experimental Farm at Ottawa, Ontario (45° 23′N, 75° 43′W). The site was low-lying and subject to frequent winter flooding and ice sheet formation. It appeared level although there was microtopographic variation with a range in elevation of approximately 0.15 m. The objective of the study was to gain insight into factors which might affect winter survival. Two varieties, a soft white and a hard red winter wheat, were planted in September. Crop establishment was measured in late fall and the percentage survival was measured in April of the following year. We assumed the large spatial differences in survival were not totally random, but rather were affected by spatial variation in environmental factors such as snow and ice depth, soil moisture and temperature. Hourly measurements of soil temperature at a depth of 0.05 m were recorded throughout the fall, winter and spring. Fall and spring soil moisture at the same depth were measured on the plot, as well as snow and ice depth at selected times throughout the winter. Measurements were taken on a grid covering the plot to help explain spatial variation in survival. In addition, detailed measurements of elevation were taken on a grid. Meteorological data were available from the nearby weather site. While soil temperatures were never low enough to kill plants according to the CERES model, the spatial variation in winter survival was associated with differences in elevation and the resulting surface drainage patterns. Received: 23 March 1998/Accepted: 21 October 1998     

Experimental icing affects growth,mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid‐winter warm spells and heavy rain‐on‐snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow‐pack and ground‐ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid‐winter rain‐on‐snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell‐heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.     

Survival rates of Redshank Tringa totanus wintering on the Moray Firth

Long-term mark–recapture data were used to estimate the annual survival rates of Redshank wintering on the Moray Firth in Scotland. Survival modelling required the exclusion of all birds caught during the main passage months (August, March and April), and a highly variable annual catching effort limited the precision of annual survival estimates. Survival rates of juvenile Redshank (between the first and second winters of life) varied markedly from year to year and averaged 43% (se 3.6%). Adult survival rates were less variable between years and were age-dependent, with 67% (se 5.0%) surviving and returning between the second and third winters of life, compared to 74% (se 1.4%) for older birds. Year-to-year variation in adult survival was weakly (and negatively) related to the number of snow days in winter. Year-to-year variation in first-year survival was non-linearly related to winter rainfall, with low survival during dry (and cold) winters, higher survival during winters with average rainfall and lower survival during wet winters. Having accounted for these weather relationships there was no evidence that survival was related to the size of the local wintering Redshank population. Organized annual ringing programmes of wintering waders on British estuaries have the potential to monitor long-term changes in survival rates and productivity. Although constant effort sampling may be difficult to achieve for wintering waders, the utility of mark–recapture data collected on estuaries is likely to depend heavily on careful study design.     

Demographic responses to a mild winter in enclosed vole populations

Mild winter weather causing snow to melt and ice to accumulate on the ground has been proposed to cause the decreased survival of individuals, and less pronounced cyclicity, of small rodent populations in Fennoscandia. However, detailed data linking ice accumulation to decreased winter survival is lacking. We live-trapped and monitored with passive integrated transponders enclosed populations of root voles (Microtus oeconomus) exposed to different amounts of ice accumulation through a mild winter. We studied how social behaviour and survival responded to snow melt and ice accumulation. Voles avoided ground ice by moving their home ranges, thus increasing home range overlap in enclosed populations experiencing more extensive ice cover. Winter survival was not affected by the amount of ice accumulation, and was only slightly reduced during ice formation in early winter. The lowest survival rates were found at the onset of snow melt in early spring. These results suggest that ice accumulation does not cause lower survival during mild winters, probably because plastic social behaviour enables root voles to reduce the negative effects of varying winter weather on survival. The mechanisms for lower survival during mild winters may operate during spring and be related to spring floods or increased susceptibility to predators. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

理论雪期和滑雪气候适宜度评价——以长白山滑雪场为例

为科学分析雪资源气候属性,定量评价滑雪运动气候适宜度概况,本研究基于天气学原理,从气候角度设定了理论雪期概念;设定与滑雪运动密切相关的气温、风速、雪期降雪量3个指标的不同适宜度等级阈值,对各指标进行归一化处理并设计其转换函数;运用灰色关联度理论,结合欧氏距离法,构建滑雪气候适宜度指数评价模型,并以长白山滑雪场为例进行评价。结果表明: 长白山地区雪资源丰富,1981—2018年,理论雪期内的平均降雪量为64.6 mm;气候变暖背景下,平均雪期日数及降雪量随年代呈略有减少趋势,雪期开始时间随年代变化呈现延后趋势,结束时间呈提前趋势,且前冬(当年雪期开始至12月底)雪期日数明显少于后冬(次年1月初至雪期结束)雪期日数;长白山滑雪场雪期内滑雪气候适宜性高,气温、风速和降雪条件的最适宜和较适宜日数累计分别占91.9%、91.8%和94.6%;滑雪综合气候适宜度日数累计占比达99.7%,绝大多数时间适宜滑雪运动的开展。理论雪期概念的提出弥补了因初、终雪气象观测资料缺乏对雪资源研究等造成的困扰;滑雪运动气候适宜度评价模型可为滑雪场地开发和经营提供管理决策,为滑雪爱好者提供出行的科学支撑。     

Winter and summer weather modulate the demography of wild turkeys at the northern edge of the species distribution

Temperate species occupying habitats at the northern limit of their geographical distribution are limited by weather and climatic conditions. Such conditions often directly affect population dynamics, and thus, influence shifts in distribution via changes in demographic parameters. We examined this question by following three distinct populations of wild turkeys inhabiting areas exposed to a gradient of meteorological conditions at the northern limit of the species distribution. Four years of radio-telemetry on 181 birds and monitoring of 95 nests revealed that population demographics of wild turkeys were influenced by snow depth, winter temperature and summer rainfall. During winter, survival of turkeys decreased drastically when snow depth remained >30 cm for >10 days and also decreased as temperatures got colder. In the spring, snow persistence delayed nest initiation, whereas nest survival was negatively affected by rainfall. Our findings show that the effects of critical meteorological factors such as snow and temperature can be compounded when both reach the limit of a species tolerance simultaneously.     

White-Tailed Deer,Weather and Predation: a New Understanding of Winter Severity for Predicting Deer Mortality

Variation in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortality during winter affects population growth in cold climates. Across the northern extent of their range, mortality increases with colder temperatures and snow. Few studies have examined the relationships between winter conditions and deer mortality, and no studies have concurrently studied this relationship for different ages of deer across multiple years and landscapes. We used recently developed cause-specific mortality models to evaluate temporal and age-class variation in deer mortality in farmland areas and compared to published results from forest areas in Wisconsin, USA, from 2011–2014. We then used temporally varying snow and temperature covariates to predict mortality trends using telemetry information from 860 deer. Cause-specific mortality in the farmland varied by age and year, similar to results from previous research in the forest. Human-related mortality was the leading cause of mortality in the farmland during most years and ranged from 4.3% to 10.3% for juveniles and 3.6% to 9.1% for adults from 2011–2014. Very little predation occurred in the farmland, and this differed from previous research in the forest where predation was the leading cause of mortality. During more severe winters (2013 and 2014), other mortality, usually associated with starvation, was the leading cause of mortality for juveniles in the farmland but not adults. In the forest, we found support for saturating effects of accumulated snow depth days >30.5 cm and accumulated temperature days >0°C on mortality. We also found support for the relationship of mortality with accumulated temperature days >0°C in the farmland but no relationship with snow depth. Deer tolerate sustained cold temperatures, but the timing of winter to spring transition is more important for deer survival in both forested and agricultural areas. In the absence of empirical survival information, managers can use our model to predict annual winter effects on deer survival, which can provide improved inference compared to traditional winter severity indices. Our results suggest changes in predator abundance may have minor influence on overwinter survival compared to winter weather. Based on mortality estimates from previous research, the highest predation rates on juvenile deer in the forest occurred when wolf (Canis lupus) counts were lowest and when wolf abundance was highest, juvenile deer predation rates were lowest. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Seasonal activity patterns and movements of the raccoon dog, a vector of diseases and parasites, in southern Finland

Activity patterns and movements of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) were studied in Virolahti, southeast Finland, in 2000–2003. Activity data were compared to those collected from Evo, south-central Finland, in 1990–1993. Activity in winter was compared to weather (temperature and snow depth), day length and moon. Also circadian activity rhythm was studied in Evo. Raccoon dogs moved fastest in late winter after winter dormancy and slowest in autumn before settling in their winter dens. In March, males were moving more often than females. Raccoon dogs stayed usually in their dens in mid-winter (December–February) but were sometimes wandering around also during the harshest months of the year and changed their winter den on average three times. Both day length and weather affected the activity of raccoon dogs in winter. Animals usually stayed in their dens, when temperature was below –10 °C, snow depth >35 cm and day length <7 h and were moving around, when temperature was >0 °C, there was no snow and day length was >10 h. Day length and snow depth together predicted rather well the probability of animals being active during winter. Although raccoon dogs were more often active at night than during the light hours, they also showed rather much diurnal activity.     

Influence of simulated acid snow stress on leaf tissue of wintering herbaceous plants

Acid snow might be an environmental stress factor for wintering plants since acid precipitates are locally concentrated in snow and the period in which ice crystals are in contact with shoots might be longer than that of acid precipitates in rain. In this study, 'equilibrium' and 'prolonged' freezing tests with sulfuric acid, which simulate situations of temperature depression and chronic freezing at a subzero temperature with acid precipitate as acid snow stress, respectively, were carried out using leaf segments of cold-acclimated winter wheat. When leaf segments were frozen in the presence of sulfuric acid solution (pH 4.0, 3.0 or 2.0) by equilibrium freezing with ice seeding, the survival rate of leaf samples treated with sulfuric acid solution of pH 2.0 decreased markedly. Leaf samples after supercooling to -4 and -8 degrees C in the presence of sulfuric acid solution (pH 2.0) without ice seeding were less damaged. When leaf samples were subjected to prolonged freezing at -4 and -8 degrees C for 7 d with sulfuric acid (pH 2.0), the survival rates of leaf samples exposed to sulfuric acid decreased more than those of leaf samples treated with water. On the other hand, leaf samples were less damaged by prolonged supercooling at -4 and -8 degrees C for 7 d with sulfuric acid (pH 2.0). The results suggest that an acid condition (pH 2.0) in the process of extracellular freezing and/or thawing promotes freezing injury of wheat leaves.     

The overwintering and abundance of cereal aphids

The longevity of Sitobion avenae varied inversely with temperature from 25 to over 100 days when reared outdoors on barley under lantern jars, being longest between December and April–May. This was due mainly to changes in the length of the pre- and post-reproductive periods rather than the length of the period of reproduction. Fecundity varied directly with temperature, from eight to sixty-seven nymphs per female. When reared on winter wheat and sheltered from wind, rain and snow, S. avenae survived best, Metopolophium dirhodum survived less well and Rhopalosiphum padi worst; when exposed in the open none of the three species survived. Close relationships were not demonstrable between the numbers of alate M. dirhodum, S. avenae and Rhopalosiphum spp. trapped in any year, between the abundance of these aphids and weather conditions between January and April, or between the numbers of these alatae and the size of crop infestations. This was probably because insufficient information was available about their biology, both inside and outside the crop.     

Predation as a probable mechanism relating winter weather to population dynamics in a North American porcupine population

An abundance index of an eastern Quebec population of North American porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum) has cycled with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years from 1868 to 2000. This cycle closely followed 11- and 22-year cycles in solar irradiance and local weather (e.g., winter precipitation and spring temperature), generating the hypothesis that solar activity may affect porcupine abundance through effects on local weather. We investigated the mechanisms linking porcupine abundance to local weather conditions using a 6-year study (2000–2005) involving individual mark-recapture, radio tracking, seasonal survival analyses and identification of mortality causes. Summer (May–August) survival was high and constant over the study period, whereas winter (August–May) survival was lower and varied during the duration of our study. Variations in local winter precipitation explained 89% of the variation in winter survival. Porcupine predation rates appeared strongly related to snow conditions; 95% of depredated porcupines were killed when snow was covering the ground, and predation rates were higher in years with increased winter precipitation. Our data thus support the hypothesis that changes in predation rates under different snow conditions were the mechanism relating climate to porcupine population dynamics, via modifications of the local predator–prey interactions and impacts on porcupine winter survival. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence supporting an effect of climate on predator–prey processes. Also, it identifies one possible mechanism involved in the relationship between solar irradiance and porcupine population cycles observed at this study site over a 130-year period.     

Survival Rates of Female Greater Sage-Grouse in Autumn and Winter in Southeastern Oregon

ABSTRACT We estimated survival rates of 135 female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on 3 study areas in southeastern Oregon, USA during autumn and winter for 3 years. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to test for differences among study areas and years, investigate the potential influence of weather, and compute estimates of overwinter survival. We found no evidence for differences in survival rates among study areas, which was contrary to our original hypothesis. There also were no declines in survival rates during fall-winter, but survival rates varied among years and time within years. Average survival rate from October through February was 0.456 (SE = 0.062). The coefficient of variation for this estimate was 13.6% indicating good precision in our estimates of survival. We found strong evidence for an effect of weather (i.e., mean daily min. temp, extreme min. temp, snow depth) on bi-weekly survival rates of sage-grouse for 2 of the study areas in one year. Extremely low (<-15°C) temperatures over an 8-week period and accumulation of snow had a negative effect on survival rates during the winter of 1990–1991 on the 2 study areas at the higher (>1,500 m) elevations. In contrast, we found no evidence for an influence of weather on the low-elevation study area or during the winters of 1989–1990 and 1991–1992. Extreme weather during winter can cause lower survival of adult female sage-grouse, so managers should be aware of these potential effects and reduce harvest rates accordingly.     

WINTER FEEDING ECOLOGY OF WIGEON ANAS PENELOPE AT THE OUSE WASHES, ENGLAND

Investigations on the feeding ecology of Wigeon were carried out in winter 1978–79 at the species' most important inland wintering habitat in Britain. The study area included 287 ha of grassland, about one-sixth of the Washes, which is grazed by cattle and sheep until late autumn. In winter the area is partly or fully flooded. The number of Wigeon increased to 11 200 in January but cold weather in February, with snow and frozen flood water, forced the birds to leave, only 600 staying in the reserve. In March up to 4000 birds were again present. The distribution of the population within the refuge depends on whether the habitat is dry pasture with only a few ponds, partly flooded, fully flooded or covered with snow and frozen flood water. Under dry or slightly wet conditions 98% of the Wigeon were grazing (October to January), while under partly flooded conditions (February and March) 42%, fed on water. With increasing water depth, upending was used by 13%, while 45% of the population moved to the barrier banks, grazing there in March. The feeding method can change within a few hours with increasing water depth. The diurnal activity pattern varies during the wintering period. A lower percentage of morning feeding occurred after flights back from feeding outside the refuge and under frozen conditions. The feeding activity was higher at mid-day with a slight decrease towards dusk. The average diurnal feeding activity was 71% (October to April), with a maximum of 90% in November. Wigeon feed diurnally and nocturnally. During a 24 h period in March they were foraging for 15 h 40 min; by day 81% of the time was spent feeding, while at night only 48%. Standing crop measurements showed that the biomass of green vegetation declined significantly outside enclosures due to Wigeon usage. Pasture land should be grazed at different intensities by cattle and sheep before the arrival of the ducks. Inland reserves should include such pasture together with some standing water where the birds are undisturbed. The use of inland pastures can compensate for the loss of coastal habitats.     

Small rodent winter survival: snow conditions limit access to food resources

1. In Fennoscandia during winter small rodents spend most of their time in the subnivean space, between the snow cover and the ground. The subnivean space is probably not a uniform habitat, but broken into accessible and inaccessible patches by ice covering the vegetation. This might reduce access to otherwise available food resources. 2. To test whether ice formations reduce access to food and thus limit winter survival of small rodents, we conducted an experiment where we increased subnivean space by adding corrugated aluminium sheets on the ground before onset of winter. The sheets prevented ice formation, thus mimicking natural occurring subnivean space, and providing more room for animals living in the subnivean space to forage. 3. During the experiment 142 Microtus oeconomus were passive induced transponder (PIT)-tagged, and a system consisting of fixed tube-shaped antennas and PIT-tag readers were used to provide data to analyse winter survival and individual subnivean space use. The extent of winter grazing was measured after snow melt by examining percentage area grazed. 4. The treatment resulted in increased survival which corresponded well with significantly higher space use and more grazing under the sheets. 5. Females showed a positive correlation between probability of survival and body mass while no such effect was observed in males. 6. The results suggest that the snow cover reduces survival in winter by physically enclosing the vegetation in ice and thus reducing access to otherwise available food resources. The amount of ice and its configuration might vary between years due to changing weather patterns. Our results offer a mechanistic explanation for variations in winter survival and suggest incorporating climate variables in future small rodent models. 7. Directional and long-term changes in climate might result in increased ice formation in the subnivean system. Such deterioration may lead to reduced winter survival and act by stabilizing population dynamics and dampening vole cyclicity.     

Demographics in an alpine reindeer herd: effects of density and winter weather

We examined how population density, winter weather, snow conditions, and 2 large-scale climatic indices (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and Arctic Oscillation, AO) influenced demography (reproduction and mortality) in an alpine herd of semi-domesticated reindeer Rangifer tarandus between 1959 and 2000 in Finnish Lapland. The herd lived on heavily grazed lichen pastures, with winter densities between 0.8 and 3.9 individuals km⁻². Icing conditions occurred every 7th yr, on an average, and decreased reproductive rate (calves/females) by 49%. In general linear models icing remarkably increased the fit of snow models to reproductive rate. Incorporation of an interaction term between icing and the snow depth index provided better fit than a model without interaction. Delayed snowmelt decreased reproductive rate. For the day of snowmelt, however, the model without interaction was better than the interaction model. These 3 models provided the best fit to the data and accounted for 51–54% of the variation in reproductive rate. Winter mortality was related to density and large-scale climatic indices, but not to local winter weather except a slight increase in mortality during an icing winter. The best model for winter mortality, including reindeer density and NAO, accounted for 26% of variation in mortality. Three factors may be involved explaining weak density dependence or the lack of such dependence; climate change scenarios that predict higher winter temperature, more frequent thawing-freezing periods, and deeper snow would be expected to decrease reproductive rate and increase winter mortality of reindeer and thus to reduce profitability of reindeer husbandry. In contrast, early springs would be advantageous for reindeer in the short term.     

Explaining annual fluctuations in breeding density of fieldfares Turdus pilaris– combined influences of factors operating during breeding, migration and wintering

In a subalpine birch forest in Central Norway, the breeding population of fieldfare Turdus pilaris varied from 3 to 63 pairs per km² during 1966–2000. For the period 1971–1995, the breeding density was negatively related to the number of days with >75% snow covered ground in April, presumably because snow cover reduce the availability of earthworms. In a multiple regression model for the period 1974–1995, snow cover in spring, the number of migrating fieldfares observed at two ornithological stations at the southern coast of Norway in April, the mean temperature in November in the preceding year, winter temperatures, rowanberry production in the previous autumn, and the interaction effect of the two latter variables (high value of one of these variables reduced the negative effect of a low value of the other) explained 80% of the variation in fieldfare breeding density. Autumn and winter temperatures, as well as rowanberry production, contributed through a positive effect, probably because these factors affected the number of fieldfare present in Norway throughout winter, which in some years may constitute a significant proportion of the overall fieldfare population.     

Observations on the bionomics of the free-living stages of Trichostrongylus vitrinus

Eggs of Trichostrongylus vitrinus in faecal pellets deposited on grass plots each month from April 1981 to March 1982 developed into infective larvae. From October to March development was slow and mortality of the pre-infective stages was very high. From April to September development was more rapid. The weather was generally dry and mortality of the pre-infective stages was high on plots with short herbage but was lower on most of the plots with long herbage, especially in July and August. In the laboratory, development of eggs into infective larvae was completed at temperatures ranging from 4 degrees C to 27 degrees C in faecal pellets which were either kept moist or dried out slowly, but not in faecal pellets which dried out rapidly. The rate of development increased as the temperature rose. Infective larvae survived for up to 16 months on the herbage of grass plots; some survived during very cold weather in the winter of 1981/82. In the laboratory, infective larvae suspended in tap water survived even longer at 4 degrees C and 10 degrees C but not at higher temperatures. They were rapidly killed by continuous freezing. They survived for up to 8 weeks when subjected to desiccation. The relationship between climatic conditions and the development and survival of the free-living stages is discussed.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

黄地老虎种群动态与积雪的关系

利用新疆北部地区黑光灯下黄地老虎越（Agrotis segetum）冬代种群数据（1992～2001年）,分析了越冬代种群数量与冬季积雪最大厚度和天数的关系。结果表明,黄地老虎越冬代发蛾的时间为4月30日～6月15日,越冬代种群数量年际间存在很大波动性。黄地老虎越冬代种群数量与当年度覆雪天数（1月1日～4月初）呈显著负相关（R^2=0．6022,P〈0．0083）,而与冬季最大积雪厚度（R^2=0．23,P=0．1577）和秋冬季（11月～翌年4月）积雪天数（R^2=0．099,P〈0．3748）相关不显著。当年度覆雪天数可以作为黄地老虎预测中的一项重要的参考指标。     

Seedling responses to decreased snow depend on canopy composition and small‐mammal herbivore presence

Winter is becoming warmer and shorter across the northern hemisphere, and reductions in snow depth can decrease tree seedling survival by exposing seedlings to harmful microclimates. Similarly, herbivory by small mammals can also limit the survival and distribution of woody plants, but it is unclear whether winter climate change will alter small‐mammal herbivory. Although small‐scale experiments show that snow removal can either increase or decrease both soil temperatures and herbivory, we currently lack snow‐removal experiments replicated across large spatial scales that are needed to understand the effect of reduced snow. To examine how winter herbivory and snow conditions influence seedling dynamics, we transplanted Acer saccharum and Tsuga canadensis seedlings across a 180 km latitudinal gradient in northern Wisconsin, where snow depth varied seven‐fold among sites. Seedlings were transplanted into one of two herbivory treatments (small‐mammal exclosure, small‐mammal access) and one of two late‐winter snow removal treatments (snow removed, snow unmanipulated). Snow removal increased soil freeze‐thaw frequency and cumulative growing degree‐days (GDD), but the magnitude of these effects depended on forest canopy composition. Acer saccharum survival decreased where snow was removed, but only at sites without conifers. Excluding small mammals increased A. saccharum survival at sites where the small‐mammal herbivore Myodes gapperi was present. Excluding small mammals also increased T. canadensis survival in plots with < 5 cm snow. Because variation in canopy composition and M. gapperi presence were important predictors of seedling survival across the snow‐depth gradient, these results reveal complexity in the ability to accurately predict patterns of winter seedling survival over large spatial scales. Global change scenarios that project future patterns of seedling recruitment may benefit from explicitly considering interactions between snow conditions and small‐mammal winter herbivory.