Cold weather and the potential range of invasive Burmese pythons

The Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) is established in Everglades National Park and neighboring areas in south Florida. Beyond its substantial ecological impacts to native fauna in south Florida, concerns have been raised as to its potential to occupy other parts of the USA, even as far north as Washington, DC. During a recent period of cold weather, seven of nine captive Burmese pythons held in outdoor pens at our facility in north-central Florida died, or would have died absent our intervention. This cold-induced mortality occurred despite the presence of refugia with heat sources. Our findings cast doubt on the ability of free-ranging Burmese pythons to establish and persist beyond the subtropical environment of south Florida.     

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Sampling Improves Occurrence and Detection Estimates of Invasive Burmese Pythons

Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR) for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), Northern African python (P. sebae), boa constrictor (Boa constrictor), and the green (Eunectes murinus) and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus). Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive constrictors. Generic sampling design and terminology are proposed to standardize and clarify interpretations of eDNA-based occupancy models.     

Betrayal: radio-tagged Burmese pythons reveal locations of conspecifics in Everglades National Park

The “Judas” technique is based on the idea that a radio-tagged individual can be used to “betray” conspecifics during the course of its routine social behavior. The Burmese python (Python bivittatus) is an invasive constrictor in southern Florida, and few methods are available for its control. Pythons are normally solitary, but from December–April in southern Florida, they form breeding aggregations containing up to 8 individuals, providing an opportunity to apply the technique. We radio-tracked 25 individual adult pythons of both sexes during the breeding season from 2007–2012. Our goals were to (1) characterize python movements and determine habitat selection for betrayal events, (2) quantify betrayal rates of Judas pythons, and (3) compare the efficacy of this tool with current tools for capturing pythons, both in terms of cost per python removed (CPP) and catch per unit effort (CPUE). In a total of 33 python-seasons, we had 8 betrayal events (24 %) in which a Judas python led us to new pythons. Betrayal events occurred more frequently in lowland forest (including tree islands) than would be expected by chance alone. These 8 events resulted in the capture of 14 new individuals (1–4 new pythons per event). Our effort comparison shows that while the Judas technique is more costly than road cruising surveys per python removed, the Judas technique yields more large, reproductive females and is effective at a time of year that road cruising is not, making it a potential complement to the status quo removal effort.     

Claims of potential expansion throughout the U.S. by invasive python species are contradicted by ecological niche models

Background

Recent reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggested that invasive Burmese pythons in the Everglades may quickly spread into many parts of the U.S. due to putative climatic suitability. Additionally, projected trends of global warming were predicted to significantly increase suitable habitat and promote range expansion by these snakes. However, the ecological limitations of the Burmese python are not known and the possible effects of global warming on the potential expansion of the species are also unclear.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we show that a predicted continental expansion is unlikely based on the ecology of the organism and the climate of the U.S. Our ecological niche models, which include variables representing climatic extremes as well as averages, indicate that the only suitable habitat in the U.S. for Burmese pythons presently occurs in southern Florida and in extreme southern Texas. Models based on the current distribution of the snake predict suitable habitat in essentially the only region in which the snakes are found in the U.S. Future climate models based on global warming forecasts actually indicate a significant contraction in suitable habitat for Burmese pythons in the U.S. as well as in their native range.

Conclusions/Significance

The Burmese python is strongly limited to the small area of suitable environmental conditions in the United States it currently inhabits due to the ecological niche preferences of the snake. The ability of the Burmese python to expand further into the U.S. is severely limited by ecological constraints. Global warming is predicted to significantly reduce the area of suitable habitat worldwide, underscoring the potential negative effects of climate change for many species.     

Landscape Analysis of Bobcat Habitat in the Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan

ABSTRACT Controversy over bobcat (Lynx rufus) management in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan (NLP), USA, stimulated a need for information on the distribution of Michigan bobcats. From March 2003 to October 2004, we conducted a radiotelemetry and scentstation survey study of bobcats in the NLP. We developed a spatial model to predict bobcat distribution throughout the NLP based on bobcat area requirements, habitat and landscape variables derived from remotely sensed land-cover data, and a multivariate distance statistic. Bobcat 50% minimum convex polygon core areas were comprised of more lowland forest (51%), nonforested wetlands (9%), and streams (3%) than the surrounding NLP. The NLP was comprised primarily of upland forest (44%) and field (32%). Habitat in the northeast and central regions of the NLP was most similar to the habitat composition of bobcat core areas. This model will be useful in aiding Michigan wildlife management agencies with assessing the status and distribution of the NLP bobcat population by identifying areas important to bobcats and supporting the development of regional strategies for carnivore conservation.     

Invasive pythons,not anthropogenic stressors,explain the distribution of a keystone species

Untangling the causes of native species loss in human-modified systems is difficult and often controversial. Evaluating the impact of non-native species in these systems is particularly challenging, as additional human perturbations often precede or accompany introductions. One example is the ongoing debate over whether mammal declines within Everglades National Park (ENP) were caused by either the establishment of non-native Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) or the effects of other anthropogenic stressors. We examined the influence of both pythons and a host of alternative stressors—altered hydrology and habitat characteristics, mercury contamination and development—on the distribution of the marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris), a once common mammal in ENP. Distance from the epicenter of the python invasion best explained marsh rabbit occurrence in suitable habitat patches, whereas none of the alternative stressors considered could explain marsh rabbit distribution. Estimates of the probability of marsh rabbit occurrence ranged from 0 at the python invasion epicenter to nearly 1.0 150 km from the invasion epicenter. These results support the hypothesis that invasive pythons shape the distribution of marsh rabbits in southern Florida. The loss of marsh rabbits and similar species will likely alter trophic interactions and ecosystem function within the Everglades, an internationally important hotspot of biodiversity. Further, our results suggest that non-native species can have profound impacts on mainland biodiversity.     

Cold-induced mortality of invasive Burmese pythons in south Florida

A recent record cold spell in southern Florida (2–11 January 2010) provided an opportunity to evaluate responses of an established population of Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) to a prolonged period of unusually cold weather. We observed behavior, characterized thermal biology, determined fate of radio-telemetered (n = 10) and non-telemetered (n = 104) Burmese pythons, and analyzed habitat and environmental conditions experienced by pythons during and after a historic cold spell. Telemetered pythons had been implanted with radio-transmitters and temperature-recording data loggers prior to the cold snap. Only one of 10 telemetered pythons survived the cold snap, whereas 59 of 99 (60%) non-telemetered pythons for which we determined fate survived. Body temperatures of eight dead telemetered pythons fluctuated regularly prior to 9 January 2010, then declined substantially during the cold period (9–11 January) and exhibited no further evidence of active thermoregulation indicating they were likely dead. Unusually cold temperatures in January 2010 were clearly associated with mortality of Burmese pythons in the Everglades. Some radio-telemetered pythons appeared to exhibit maladaptive behavior during the cold spell, including attempting to bask instead of retreating to sheltered refugia. We discuss implications of our findings for persistence and spread of introduced Burmese pythons in the United States and for maximizing their rate of removal.     

Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades

To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range.     

Habitat modeling used to predict relative abundance of bobcats in Iowa

We combined observations of bobcats (Lynx rufus) from bowhunters with remotely-sensed data to build models that describe habitat and relative abundance of this species in the agricultural landscape of Iowa, USA. We calculated landscape composition and configuration from publicly available land cover, census, road, hydrologic, and elevation data. We used multiple regression models to examine county-level associations between several explanatory variables and relative abundance of bobcats reported by surveyed bowhunters in each county. The most influential explanatory variables in the models were metrics associated with the presence of grassland, including Conservation Reserve, along with configuration of this perennial habitat with forests, although human population density and abundance of eastern cottontails (Sylvilagus floridanus) also correlated with abundance of bobcats. Validation of predictions against 3 years of independent data provided confidence in the models, with 66% of predictions within 1 bobcat/1,000 hunter-hours and 95% within 5 bobcats/1,000 hunter-hours of observed values. Once we accounted for landscape differences, no residual spatial trend was evident, despite relatively recent bobcat recolonization of Iowa. Models suggested that future range expansion of the bobcat population may be possible in some northern Iowa counties where habitat composition is similar to counties in southern Iowa where bobcats are abundant. Results from the county-level model have been useful to the Iowa Department of Natural Resources in evaluating the expansion of this once rare species and for delineating harvest opportunities. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Relationships Between Hydrology and Soils Describe Vegetation Patterns in Seasonally Flooded Tree Islands of the Southern Everglades, Florida

Tree island ecosystems are important and distinct features of Florida Everglades wetlands. We described the inter-relationships among abiotic factors describing seasonally flooded tree islands and characterized plant–soil relationships in tree islands occurring in a relatively unimpacted area of the Everglades. We used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to reduce our multi-factor dataset, quantified forest structure and vegetation nutrient dynamics, and related these vegetation parameters to PCA summary variables using linear regression analyses. We found that, of the 21 abiotic parameters used to characterize the ecosystem structure of seasonally flooded tree islands, 13 parameters were significantly correlated with four principal components, and they described 78% of the variance among the study islands. Most variation was described by factors related to soil oxidation and hydrology, exemplifying the sensitivity of tree island structure to hydrologic conditions. PCA summary variables describing tree island structure were related to variability in Chrysobalanus icaco (L.) canopy cover, Ilex cassine (L.) and Salix caroliniana (Michx.) canopy cover, Myrica cerifera (L.) plot frequency, litter turnover, % phosphorus resorption of co-dominant species, and nitrogen nutrient-use efficiency. This study supported findings that vegetation characteristics can be sensitive indicators of variability in tree island ecosystem structure. This study produced valuable, information which was used to recommend ecological targets (i.e. restoration performance measures) for seasonally flooded tree islands in more impacted regions of the Everglades landscape.     

Transient persistence of bobcat (Lynx rufus) occurrence throughout a human-dominated landscape

Human developments have detrimental effects on wildlife populations globally with carnivores being particularly sensitive. The bobcat (Lynx rufus) is often considered an adaptable mesocarnivore that occurs throughout varied landcover types within its wide distribution and may be less susceptible to the negative effects of development. Our objectives were to investigate the landscape occupancy dynamics of bobcats in a highly developed and densely populated region of the northeastern United States to evaluate the sensitivity of bobcat occurrence to natural and anthropogenic landscape features. We established a large-scale camera trapping survey throughout Rhode Island, USA, sampling from 2018 to 2020. Using dynamic occupancy models, we found initial site occupancy was positively influenced by the amount of forested wetland habitat, while increasing road density and shrub cover negatively influenced the probability of site colonization. Surprisingly, we found no hypothesized variables to influence site-level extirpation probability, or any seasonal effects on dynamic parameters. Lastly, we found that forest cover and road density negatively influenced the probability of detection. The probability of occupancy was high, >0.8, throughout much of the study area (49%), but we also found relatively high site transients, with the probability a site would change occurrence status from season to season at ≈0.27 in the majority of the study area (70%). Our results show that although bobcats can persist in human-dominated landscapes, they require contiguous natural areas to do so. Future expansion of road infrastructure may reduce habitat connectivity and increase road mortalities, thus jeopardizing the population.     

Tree–Grass Coexistence in the Everglades Freshwater System

Mosaic freshwater landscapes exhibit tree-dominated patches —or tree islands—interspersed in a background of marshes and wet prairies. In the Florida Everglades, these patterned landscapes provide habitat for a variety of plant and animal species and are hotspots of biodiversity. Even though the emergence of patchy freshwater systems has been associated with climate histories, fluctuating hydrologic conditions, and internal feedbacks, a process-based quantitative understanding of the underlying dynamics is still missing. Here, we develop a mechanistic framework that relates the dynamics of vegetation, nutrients and soil accretion/loss through ecogeomorphic feedbacks and interactions with hydrologic drivers. We show that the stable coexistence of tree islands and marshes results as an effect of their both being (meta-) stable states of the system. However, tree islands are found to have only a limited resilience, in that changes in hydrologic conditions or vegetation cover may cause an abrupt shift to a stable marsh state. The inherent non-linear and discontinuous dynamics determining the stability and resilience of tree islands should be accounted for in efforts aiming at the management, conservation and restoration of these features.     

Identifying plausible scenarios for the establishment of invasive Burmese pythons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Python molurus</Emphasis>) in Southern Florida

Successful invasions of secretive alien species often go unrecognized until spread has exceeded the point where control or eradication is feasible. In such situations, understanding factors that contributed to establishment can be critical to preventing subsequent introductions of previously-successful invaders or ecologically similar species. The Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), a native to Southeast Asia, is abundant in the pet trade and is now well-established in southern Florida. Although there can be little argument that the ultimate source of Florida pythons was the pet industry, there has been limited consideration of biological support for scenarios that may have lead to their establishment. In this study we use information on python capture rates and biologically-derived population growth models to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios for python establishment. Our results indicate that scenarios involving relatively recent establishment (post-1990) require large numbers (100–1,000) of founders or unrealistically high juvenile survivorship. Intentional simultaneous release of large numbers of pythons is unlikely and accidental release of large numbers of founders is inconsistent with the spatial and temporal pattern of pythons captures in the region. We conclude that the most parsimonious scenario for establishment of pythons in Florida involves the release of a relatively small number of founders prior to 1985. Our results demonstrate that for pythons and other species with low inherent detection probabilities, early action during incipient phases of an invasion is critical and understanding likely introduction scenarios is important for preventing similar situations from occurring elsewhere or with other species.     

Dispersal Characteristics of Juvenile Bobcats in South-Central Indiana

ABSTRACT Bobcat (Lynx rufus) populations in the Midwestern United States experienced historic declines due to habitat loss and exploitation but have rebounded in recent decades. We investigated natal dispersal of juvenile bobcats from a population in south-central Indiana, USA, from 1999 to 2006. We radiocollared 16 juvenile bobcats (11 M, 5 F) and monitored them for 237–1,014 days (x̄ = 506). One female (20%) and 11 males (100%) dispersed from natal home ranges that averaged 14.6 km² in size. Most juveniles (70%) initiated dispersal from mid-February through March, late in their first year. Only 5 bobcats (42%) ultimately established a final home range 63 ± 35 km² in size 13–92 km (x̄ = 44) from their natal range 140 ± 45 days after initiating dispersal. Survival did not differ (P = 0.93) between dispersing (S = 0.73) and philopatric (S = 0.75) individuals, although 4 bobcats (3 M, 1 F) were killed in collisions with vehicles. We found dispersal of bobcats in fragmented landscapes is prolonged and often unsuccessful; the ability of dispersers to locate suitable vacant habitat patches may be vital to the continued growth of bobcat populations recolonizing the agricultural Midwest.     

Homing of invasive Burmese pythons in South Florida: evidence for map and compass senses in snakes

Navigational ability is a critical component of an animal''s spatial ecology and may influence the invasive potential of species. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) are apex predators invasive to South Florida. We tracked the movements of 12 adult Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park, six of which were translocated 21–36 km from their capture locations. Translocated snakes oriented movement homeward relative to the capture location, and five of six snakes returned to within 5 km of the original capture location. Translocated snakes moved straighter and faster than control snakes and displayed movement path structure indicative of oriented movement. This study provides evidence that Burmese pythons have navigational map and compass senses and has implications for predictions of spatial spread and impacts as well as our understanding of reptile cognitive abilities.     

Experimentally derived salinity tolerance of hatchling Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) from the Everglades,Florida (USA)

In a laboratory setting, we tested the ability of 24 non-native, wild-caught hatchling Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) collected in the Florida Everglades to survive when given water containing salt to drink. After a one-month acclimation period in the laboratory, we grouped snakes into three treatments, giving them access to water that was fresh (salinity of 0, control), brackish (salinity of 10), or full-strength sea water (salinity of 35). Hatchlings survived about one month at the highest marine salinity and about five months at the brackish-water salinity; no control animals perished during the experiment. These results are indicative of a “worst-case scenario”, as in the laboratory we denied access to alternate fresh-water sources that may be accessible in the wild (e.g., through rainfall). Therefore, our results may underestimate the potential of hatchling pythons to persist in saline habitats in the wild. Because of the effect of different salinity regimes on survival, predictions of ultimate geographic expansion by non-native Burmese pythons that consider salt water as barriers to dispersal for pythons may warrant re-evaluation, especially under global climate change and associated sea-level-rise scenarios.     

Effects of Prey Presence and Scale on Bobcat Resource Selection during Winter

Factors relevant to resource selection in carnivores may vary across spatial and temporal scales, both in magnitude and rank. Understanding relationships among carnivore occupancy, prey presence, and habitat characteristics, as well as their interactions across multiple scales, is necessary to improve our understanding of resource selection and predict population changes. We used a multi-scale dynamic hierarchical co-occurrence model with camera data to study bobcat and snowshoe hare occupancy in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan during winter 2012–2013. Bobcat presence was influenced at the local scale by snowshoe hare presence, and by road density at the local and larger scale when hare were absent. Hare distribution was related primarily to vegetation cover types, and detectability varied in space and time. Bobcat occupancy dynamics were influenced by different factors depending on the spatial scale considered and the resource availability context. Moreover, considering observed co-occurrence, we suggest that bobcat presence had a greater effect on hare occupancy than hare presence on bobcat occupancy. Our results highlight the importance of studying carnivore distributions in the context of predator-prey relationships and its interactions with environmental covariates at multiple spatial scales. Our approach can be applied to other carnivore species to provide insights beneficial for management and conservation.     

Gene flow and pathogen transmission among bobcats (Lynx rufus) in a fragmented urban landscape

Urbanization can result in the fragmentation of once contiguous natural landscapes into a patchy habitat interspersed within a growing urban matrix. Animals living in fragmented landscapes often have reduced movement among habitat patches because of avoidance of intervening human development, which potentially leads to both reduced gene flow and pathogen transmission between patches. Mammalian carnivores with large home ranges, such as bobcats (Lynx rufus), may be particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation. We performed genetic analyses on bobcats and their directly transmitted viral pathogen, feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), to investigate the effects of urbanization on bobcat movement. We predicted that urban development, including major freeways, would limit bobcat movement and result in genetically structured host and pathogen populations. We analysed molecular markers from 106 bobcats and 19 FIV isolates from seropositive animals in urban southern California. Our findings indicate that reduced gene flow between two primary habitat patches has resulted in genetically distinct bobcat subpopulations separated by urban development including a major highway. However, the distribution of genetic diversity among FIV isolates determined through phylogenetic analyses indicates that pathogen genotypes are less spatially structured-exhibiting a more even distribution between habitat fragments. We conclude that the types of movement and contact sufficient for disease transmission occur with enough frequency to preclude structuring among the viral population, but that the bobcat population is structured owing to low levels of effective bobcat migration resulting in gene flow. We illustrate the utility in using multiple molecular markers that differentially detect movement and gene flow between subpopulations when assessing connectivity.