Modelling the effects of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines in tuberculosis control

Epidemic control strategies alter the spread of the disease in the host population. In this paper, we describe and discuss mathematical models that can be used to explore the potential of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines currently under development in the control of tuberculosis. A model with bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination for the susceptibles and treatment for the infectives is first presented. The epidemic thresholds known as the basic reproduction numbers and equilibria for the models are determined and stabilities are investigated. The reproduction numbers for the models are compared to assess the impact of the vaccines currently under development. The centre manifold theory is used to show the existence of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and that the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is greater than unity. From the study we conclude that the pre-exposure vaccine currently under development coupled with chemoprophylaxis for the latently infected and treatment of infectives is more effective when compared to the post-exposure vaccine currently under development for the latently infected coupled with treatment of the infectives.     

Analysis of a mathematical model for tuberculosis: What could be done to increase case detection

This paper presents qualitative and quantitative study of a TB mathematical model to test results from a survey carried out in Benin City, Nigeria. The purpose of the survey was to determine factors that could enhance the case detection rate of tuberculosis. Results from the survey identified four key factors that must be combined for an effective control of TB and increase the case detection rate: effective awareness programme, active cough identification, associated cost factor for treatment of identified cases and effective treatment. The overall effect of these factors on the basic reproduction number under treatment, R_T, of the TB model was considered. In all, a serious concentration on tuberculosis awareness programmes and active cough identification as a marker for someone having TB was shown to significantly reduce the value of the reproduction number, hereby reducing the severity of the disease in the presence of treatment.     

A dynamic model for tuberculosis transmission and optimal treatment strategies in South Korea

We have developed a dynamic model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission in South Korea using a SEIR model with the time-dependent parameters. South Korea ranked the highest TB incidence among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2005 yr. The observed data from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) shows a certain rise of active-TB incidence individuals after 2001 yr. Because of this sudden jump, we have considered two different periods for best fitting the model: prior to 2001 yr and posterior to 2001 yr. The least-squares fitting has been used for estimating model parameters to the observed data of active-TB incidence. Our model agrees well with the observed data. In this work, we also propose optimal treatment strategies of TB model in South Korea for the future. We have considered three control mechanisms representing distancing, case finding and case holding efforts. Optimal control programs have been proposed in various scenarios, in order to minimize the number of exposed and infectious individuals and the cost of implementing the control treatment.     

On the role of reinfection in the transmission of infectious diseases

We introduce a spatial stochastic model for the spread of tuberculosis. After a primary infection, an individual may become sick (and infectious) through an endogenous reinfection or through an exogenous reinfection. We show that even in the absence of endogenous reinfection an epidemic is possible if the exogenous reinfection parameter is high enough. This is in sharp contrast with what happens for a mean field model corresponding to our spatial stochastic model.     

Mathematical modeling of pulmonary tuberculosis therapy: Insights from a prototype model with rifampin

There is a critical need for improved and shorter tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Current in vitro models of TB, while valuable, are poor predictors of the antibacterial effect of drugs in vivo. Mathematical models may be useful to overcome the limitations of traditional approaches in TB research. The objective of this study was to set up a prototype mathematical model of TB treatment by rifampin, based on pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic and disease submodels.The full mathematical model can simulate the time-course of tuberculous disease from the first day of infection to the last day of therapy. Therapeutic simulations were performed with the full model to study the antibacterial effect of various dosage regimens of rifampin in lungs.The model reproduced some qualitative and quantitative properties of the bactericidal activity of rifampin observed in clinical data. The kill curves simulated with the model showed a typical biphasic decline in the number of extracellular bacteria consistent with observations in TB patients. Simulations performed with more simple pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models indicated a possible role of a protected intracellular bacterial compartment in such a biphasic decline.This modeling effort strongly suggests that current dosage regimens of RIF may be further optimized. In addition, it suggests a new hypothesis for bacterial persistence during TB treatment.     

Modeling the impact of early therapy for latent tuberculosis patients and its optimal control analysis

Effective tuberculosis (TB) control depends on case findings to discover infectious cases, investigation of contacts of those with TB, as well as appropriate treatment. Adherence and successful completion of the treatment are equally important. Unfortunately, due to a number of personal, psychosocial, economic, medical, and health service factors, a significant number of TB patients become irregular and default from treatment. In this paper, a mathematical model is developed to assess the impact of early therapy for latent TB and non-adherence on controlling TB transmission dynamics. Equilibrium states of the model are determined and their local stability is examined. With the aid of the center manifold theory, it is established that the model undergoes a backward bifurcation. Qualitative mathematical analysis of the model suggests that a high level of latent tuberculosis case findings, coupled with a decrease of defaulting rate, may be effective in controlling TB transmission dynamics in the community. Population-level effects of organized campaigns to improve early therapy and to guarantee successful completion of each treatment are evaluated through numerical simulations and presented in support of the analytical results.     

气雾攻击法感染结核病小鼠模型的建立及其综合评价

目的 模拟自然感染方式建立结核病小鼠模型,并对其病理变化进行综合评价.方法 通过气雾攻击方式将结核分枝杆菌H37Rv接种至C57BL/6J小鼠体内.在感染后的4周、6周、8周对小鼠进行micro-CT活体动态扫描,无菌分离肺脏和脾脏,肉眼观察病变情况,活菌菌落计数,组织病理检测(HE和抗酸染色).结果 肉眼观察和micro-CT扫描发现,不同时间小鼠肺部感染情况逐渐加重,至感染后第8周时病变弥漫至整个肺部;HE染色肺组织出现弥漫性肉芽肿样实变;抗酸染色可见结核分枝杆菌.结论 通过大体病变、病理、影像、菌落计数几个方面对建立的小鼠模型进行综合分析,证明利用气雾攻击法感染的结核病小鼠模型建立成功;该模型在形成病变时与结核患者的情况存在一定差异,对其完善的综合评价有助于在相关研究中对该小鼠模型的合理应用.     

Identifying control mechanisms of granuloma formation during M. tuberculosis infection using an agent-based model

Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a major world health problem. An estimated 2 billion people are presently infected and the disease causes approximately 3 million deaths per year. After bacteria are inhaled into the lung, a complex immune response is triggered leading to the formation of multicellular structures termed granulomas. It is believed that the collection of host granulomas either contain bacteria resulting in a latent infection or are unable to do so, leading to active disease. Thus, understanding granuloma formation and function is essential for improving both diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis. Granuloma formation is a complex spatio-temporal system involving interactions of bacteria, specific immune cells, including macrophages, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, as well as immune effectors such as chemokine and cytokines. To study this complex dynamical system we have developed an agent-based model of granuloma formation in the lung. This model combines continuous representations of chemokines with discrete agent representations of macrophages and T cells in a cellular automata-like environment. Our results indicate that key host elements involved in granuloma formation are chemokine diffusion, prevention of macrophage overcrowding within the granuloma, arrival time, location and number of T cells within the granuloma, and an overall host ability to activate macrophages. Interestingly, a key bacterial factor is its intracellular growth rate, whereby slow growth actually facilitates survival.     

Template for developing guidelines for the evaluation of the clinical efficacy of psychophysiological interventions

An essential function of both the Association for Applied Psychophysiology and Biofeedback (AAPB) and the Society for Neuronal Regulation (SNR) is the systematic evaluation of psychophysiological interventions that have been developed for the treatment of medical and psychiatric disorders. In order to address scientific concerns regarding the efficacy of specific clinical applications of biofeedback, these two societies formed and Efficacy Task Force. The process to be used in the assessment of treatment efficacy, specificity and clinical utility is presented in the form of a template that will serve as the foundation for a series of scientific reviews and practice guidlines to be published by both societies.     

The attainment of insight in the insight stage of the Hill dream model: The influence of client reactance and therapist interventions.

Ten sessions with high client insight gains in the insight stage and high client reactance, 10 with low insight gains and low reactance, 10 with high insight gains and low reactance, and 10 with low insight gains and high reactance were selected from 157 single sessions of dream-work. Judges coded therapist response modes and rated client insight in each speaking turn in the insight stage. Therapists used more interpretive and "other" responses but fewer probes for insight with clients who gained more insight in the insight stage. In speaking turns immediately following therapist interventions, clients were judged as having the most insight after interpretive responses and probes for insight, less after paraphrases, and even less after "other" responses. Results are discussed in terms of limitations and implications for practice and research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Models to understand the population-level impact of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infections

Over the past decade, numerous studies have identified tuberculosis patients in whom more than one distinct strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is present. While it has been shown that these mixed strain infections can reduce the probability of treatment success for individuals simultaneously harboring both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, it is not yet known if and how this phenomenon impacts the long-term dynamics for tuberculosis within communities. Strain-specific differences in immunogenicity and associations with drug resistance suggest that a better understanding of how strains compete within hosts will be necessary to project the effects of mixed strain infections on the future burden of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework that allows us to investigate mechanisms of strain competition within hosts and to assess the long-term effects of such competition on the ecology of strains in a population. These models permit us to systematically evaluate the importance of unknown parameters and to suggest priority areas for future experimental research. Despite the current scarcity of data to inform the values of several model parameters, we are able to draw important qualitative conclusions from this work. We find that mixed strain infections may promote the coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains in two ways. First, mixed strain infections allow a strain with a lower basic reproductive number to persist in a population where it would otherwise be outcompeted if has competitive advantages within a co-infected host. Second, some individuals progressing to phenotypically drug-sensitive tuberculosis from a state of mixed drug-sensitive and drug-resistant infection may retain small subpopulations of drug-resistant bacteria that can flourish once the host is treated with antibiotics. We propose that these types of mixed infections, by increasing the ability of low fitness drug-resistant strains to persist, may provide opportunities for compensatory mutations to accumulate and for relatively fit, highly drug-resistant strains of M. tuberculosis to emerge.     

Waning of maternal immunity and the impact of diseases: the example of myxomatosis in natural rabbit populations

Myxomatosis is a leporipoxvirus that infects the european rabbit, inducing a high mortality rate. Observations lead us to hypothesize that a rabbit carrying maternal antibodies (or having recovered) can be infected (or re-infected) upon being exposed (or re-exposed) to the virus. Infection will lead to mild disease, boosting host immune protection. Using a modelling approach we show that this phenomenon may lead to a difference of impact of myxomatosis according to its transmission rate. Young are exposed when they still carry maternal antibodies and develop a mild disease in high transmission populations. Our results show that the impact of myxomatosis is generally higher in epidemic situations compared to populations where the virus circulates all the year. As a consequence, waning of acquired immunity and the continuous supply of newborn along the year may reduce the impact of the disease.     

Experimental tuberculosis in the Wistar rat: a model for protective immunity and control of infection

Background

Despite the availability of many animal models for tuberculosis (TB) research, there still exists a need for better understanding of the quiescent stage of disease observed in many humans. Here, we explored the use of the Wistar rat model for the study of protective immunity and control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The kinetics of bacillary growth, evaluated by the colony stimulating assay (CFU) and the extent of lung pathology in Mtb infected Wistar rats were dependent on the virulence of the strains and the size of the infecting inoculums. Bacillary growth control was associated with induction of T helper type 1 (Th1) activation, the magnitude of which was also Mtb strain and dose dependent. Histopathology analysis of the infected lungs demonstrated the formation of well organized granulomas comprising epithelioid cells, multinucleated giant cells and foamy macrophages surrounded by large numbers of lymphocytes. The late stage subclinical form of disease was reactivated by immunosuppression leading to increased lung CFU.

Conclusion

The Wistar rat is a valuable model for better understanding host-pathogen interactions that result in control of Mtb infection and potentially establishment of latent TB. These properties together with the ease of manipulation, relatively low cost and well established use of rats in toxicology and pharmacokinetic analyses make the rat a good animal model for TB drug discovery.     

Mutation and control of the human immunodeficiency virus

We examine the dynamics of infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), as well as therapies that minimize viral load, restore adaptive immunity, and use minimal dosage of anti-HIV drugs. Virtual therapies for wild-type infections are demonstrated; however, the HIV infection is never cured, requiring continued treatment to keep the condition in remission. With high viral turnover and mutation rates, drug-resistant strains of HIV evolve quickly. The ability of optimal therapy to contain drug-resistant strains is shown to depend upon the relative fitness of mutant strains.     

Characterizing the symmetric equilibrium of multi-strain host-pathogen systems in the presence of cross immunity

We investigate the population dynamics of host-pathogen systems in which the pathogen has a potentially arbitrary number of antigenically distinct strains interacting via cross-immunity. The interior equilibrium configuration of the symmetric multiple strain SIR model with cross-immunity is characterized. We develop an efficient iterative method for numerically solving the equilibrium equation together with a number of informative analytical approximations to the full solution. Equilibrium properties are studied as a function of the number of strains, reproduction number, infectious period, and cross immunity profile. We establish that the prevalence in the system increases monotonically with the number of strains and the reduction in cross immunity. Moreover, we demonstrate the existence of a phase transition separating high prevalence and low prevalence parameter regions, with the critical point being defined by R₀1, where is the level of cross-immunity and R₀ is the reproduction number. Above the threshold, prevalence saturates with increasing numbers of strains as a result of the inclusion of prohibition of co-infection in the model. Below the threshold, prevalence saturates much more rapidly as the number of strains increases - indicating that when cross-protection is sufficiently intense, the selective advantage for a pathogen to increase its diversity is substantially less than in the threshold region. Similarly, there is limited benefit to increased transmissibility (or decreased cross-immunity) both for the high and low diversity pathogen systems compared with systems at the threshold R₀1 where small increase in transmissibility can result in significant increase in prevalence.     

Ecological balance in the native population dynamics may cause the paradox of pest control with harvesting

We analyze a time-discrete mathematical model of host-parasite population dynamics with harvesting, in which the host can be regarded as a pest. We harvest a portion of the host population at a moment in each parasitism season. The principal target of the harvesting is the host; however, the parasite population may also be affected and reduced by a portion. Our model involves the Beverton-Holt type density effect on the host population. We investigate the condition in which the harvesting of the host results in an eventual increase of its equilibrium population size, analytically proving that the paradoxical increase could occur even when the harvesting does not directly affect the parasite population at all. We show that the paradox of pest control could be caused essentially by the interspecific relationship and the intraspecific density effect.     

The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence

The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence.     

Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis

This paper presents two new theoretical frameworks to investigate the impact of immigration on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. For the basic model, we present new analysis on the existence and stability of equilibria. Then, we use numerical simulations of the model to illustrate the behavior of the system. We apply the model to Canadian reported data on tuberculosis and observe a good agreement between the model prediction and the data. For the extended model, which incorporated the recruitment of the latent and infectious in immigrants to the basic model, we find that the usual threshold condition does not apply and a unique equilibrium exists for all parameter values. This indicates that the disease does not disappear and becomes endemic in host areas. This finding is also supported by numerical simulations with the extended model. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis.     

The possible impact of socioeconomic,income, and educational status on adverse effects of drug and their therapeutic episodes in patients targeted with a combination of tuberculosis interventions

First-line antituberculosis (anti-TB) compounds have been considered as proven components of the Directly Observed Treatment-Short course (DOTS). Drug therapy against tuberculosis has been categorized as I, II, or III following the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program guidelines. Anti-TB are drugs are quite common and show limited adverse effects. However, first-line anti-TB compounds mediated DOTS therapy and were found with several complications. Thus, those drugs have been discontinued. Therefore, the present study was designed to find out the possible impact of socioeconomic, income, and educational status on the adverse effects of drugs and their therapeutic episodes in patients targeted with a combination of tuberculosis intervention. This study found that an increased incidence of tuberculosis was found in patients who have finished high school, contributing to a high percentage of adverse effects. Notably, adverse events were shown maximally in poor patients compared with rich- or high-income patients. On the contrary, a high prevalence of adverse events was shown to be increased in partially skilled workers compared with full-skilled workers. Consequently, adversely considerable events were implicated to be raised in patients associated with minimal socioeconomic class. Such interesting factors would help in monitoring such events in experimental patients.     

The livestock reservoir for antimicrobial resistance: a personal view on changing patterns of risks,effects of interventions and the way forward

The purpose of this review was to provide an updated overview on the use of antimicrobial agents in livestock, the associated problems for humans and current knowledge on the effects of reducing resistance in the livestock reservoir on both human health and animal production. There is still limiting data on both use of antimicrobial agents, occurrence and spread of resistance as well as impact on human health. However, in recent years, emerging issues related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium difficile, Escherichia coli and horizontally transferred genes indicates that the livestock reservoir has a more significant impact on human health than was estimated 10 years ago, where the focus was mainly on resistance in Campylobacter and Salmonella. Studies have indicated that there might only be a marginal if any benefit from the regular use of antibiotics and have shown that it is possible to substantially reduce the use of antimicrobial agents in livestock production without compromising animal welfare or health or production. In some cases, this should be done in combination with other measures such as biosecurity and use of vaccines. To enable better studies on both the global burden and the effect of interventions, there is a need for global harmonized integrated and continuous surveillance of antimicrobial usage and antimicrobial resistance, preferably associated with data on production and animal diseases to determine the positive and negative impact of reducing antimicrobial use in livestock.