Recurrence risk of a new dominant mutation in children of unaffected parents.

Extensions to models originally described by Hartl for predicting the recurrence risk of new dominant mutations are developed in this paper. Additions to the models are (1) possible somatic mosaicism in a parent in some families, (2) the possibility that the parental origin of the mutation may or may not be known, and (3) mutation rates which change as a function of sex and/or time. The models indicate that recurrence risks are most critically affected by (a) the amount of somatic mosaicism which can be tolerated in the parent without manifesting disease and (b) knowledge of the parental origin of the mutation. In addition, there is a moderate effect on recurrence risks if mutation rates increase in the father as a function of time. Recurrence risks are at least as large as the risk of trisomy 21 in a child of a mother of age 35 years or older, probably much higher (5%-10%) when the mutation is known to be of maternal origin or if substantial somatic mosaicism in the parent is compatible with a normal phenotype. The recurrence risk of a new mutation is high because of a very high ascertainment bias of families with substantial germ-line mosaicism.     

Empirical, free of genetic model, estimation of recurrence risks in multifactorial diseases: conditional probability approach]

Conditional probability approach in estimation of recurrence risks in sibships of different parental phenotypic matings with the different set of affected and normal siblings is considered. The formulae are presented for calculation of recurrence risks in cases of equal and different susceptibility of two sexes under different ways of sampling of family data: direct selection of offsprings through the parents; indirect selection of offsprings through affected siblings--the probands, under different ascertainment probability--from pi = 1.0 ("exhaustive selection") up to pi----0 ("single selection"); for the case of different susceptibility of the two sexes a possibility of the differences in the ascertainment probabilities of men (pi m) and of women (pi w) is allowed, unlike "independent ascertainment model", which requires the constancy of pi. The case of multiple incompatible subforms is considered for estimation of the recurrence risks of the specified subforms. The methods of the risks estimation proposed are free of genetic models being universal both for classical mendelian traits (with the constant risks) and for multifactorial ones (with variable risks).     

Sexual pigmentation and parental risk‐taking in yellow warblers Setophaga petechia

Adult‐directed predation risk imposes important behavioral constraints on parents and might thus alter relationships between costly sexual ornaments and parental performance. For instance, under low predation risk, highly ornamented individuals might display better parental performance than others, as predicted by ‘good parent’ models of sexual selection. However, under high risk of predation, highly ornamented individuals might abandon parental effort if conspicuous to predators, or if social partners are more willing to take parental risks when paired with highly ornamented mates. We experimentally elevated perceived adult‐directed predation risk near nests to explore how carotenoid‐ and phaeomelanin‐based pigmentation in both sexes relate to parental risk‐taking for offspring in the yellow warbler Setophaga petechia. Compared to other males, males with more intense carotenoid‐based pigmentation maintained higher levels of paternal effort under predation risk at highly concealed nests, but reduced nestling provisioning rate more at exposed nests. Further, when faced with predation risk, females with more phaeomelanin‐based pigmentation reduced nestling provisioning rate less than other females, regardless of nest concealment. Females displayed higher parental effort across treatments when paired to males with more colorful carotenoid pigmentation. However, birds did not reduce parental effort under risk less when paired to a highly ornamented mate, suggesting that predation risk did not accentuate differential allocation. Males did not take fewer parental risks than females. Results indicate that nest concealment modifies parental risk‐taking by males with colorful carotenoid‐based pigmentation, and suggest that female melanin‐based pigmentation may indicate boldness and greater a propensity to take parental risks.     

Statistical models for low dose exposure

Extrapolation of health risks from high to low doses has received a considerable amount of attention in carcinogenic risk assessment over decades. Fitting statistical dose-response models to experimental data collected at high doses and use of the fitted model for estimating effects at low doses lead to quite different risk predictions. Dissatisfaction with this procedure was formulated both by toxicologists who saw a deficit of biological knowledge in the models as well as by risk modelers who saw the need of mechanistically-based stochastic modeling. This contribution summarizes the present status of low dose modeling and the determination of the shape of dose-response curves. We will address the controversial issues of the appropriateness of threshold models, the estimation of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAEL), and their relevance for low dose modeling. We will distinguish between quantal dose-response models for tumor incidence and models of the more informative age/time dependent tumor incidence. The multistage model and the two-stage model of clonal expansion are considered as dose-response models accounting for biological mechanisms. Problems of the identifiability of mechanisms are addressed, the relation between administered dose and effective target dose is illustrated by examples, and the recently proposed Benchmark Dose concept for risk assessment is presented with its consequences for mechanistic modeling and statistical estimation.     

Differential genetic susceptibility to child risk at birth in predicting observed maternal behavior

This study examined parenting as a function of child medical risks at birth and parental genotype (dopamine D4 receptor; DRD4). Our hypothesis was that the relation between child risks and later maternal sensitivity would depend on the presence/absence of a genetic variant in the mothers, thus revealing a gene by environment interaction (GXE). Risk at birth was defined by combining risk indices of children's gestational age at birth, birth weight, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. The DRD4-III 7-repeat allele was chosen as a relevant genotype as it was recently shown to moderate the effect of environmental stress on parental sensitivity. Mothers of 104 twin pairs provided DNA samples and were observed with their children in a laboratory play session when the children were 3.5 years old. Results indicate that higher levels of risk at birth were associated with less sensitive parenting only among mothers carrying the 7-repeat allele, but not among mothers carrying shorter alleles. Moreover, mothers who are carriers of the 7-repeat allele and whose children scored low on the risk index were observed to have the highest levels of sensitivity. These findings provide evidence for the interactive effects of genes and environment (in this study, children born at higher risk) on parenting, and are consistent with a genetic differential susceptibility model of parenting by demonstrating that some parents are inherently more susceptible to environmental influences, both good and bad, than are others.     

Short-term versus long-term risk for coronary artery disease: implications for lipid guidelines

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The aim of this article is to describe recent advances in our understanding of lifetime risks for cardiovascular disease and their implications for lipid guidelines. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies have indicated that, among younger and middle-aged adults, there is a large subset with low 10-year risk but high lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease. Individuals with high lifetime risks can be identified on the basis of single adverse risk factors or on the basis of overall risk factor burden. For example, using the ATP-III online risk estimator, a 45-year-old obese, nonsmoking, nondiabetic man with total cholesterol of 200 mg/dl, HDL-cholesterol of 40 mg/dl, and untreated systolic blood pressure of 135 mmHg has an estimated 10-year risk for hard coronary heart disease of 3%. In contrast, recent data indicate that his predicted remaining lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease is 50% and his predicted median survival is over 10 years shorter than a man at the same age with optimal risk factors. SUMMARY: Lifetime risk estimation for cardiovascular disease may be an important adjunct to short-term (10-year) risk estimation that may help identify more treatment-eligible individuals at risk for cardiovascular disease, improve risk communication, motivate changes in lifestyle and behaviors, and promote adherence to therapy.     

Genetic counseling in carriers of reciprocal translocations involving two autosomes

One of the main genetic causes involve in the pathogenesis of recurrent abortion is parental chromosomal abnormalities. The central concept in genetic counseling with such families is to estimate the probability of recurrence of unfavorable pregnancy outcomes. The main questions that consultants usually ask are: Why did this happen? What is the risk to be done again?Our cases were two families with repeated miscarriage. The pedigrees were drawn, the chromosomes of couples were studied, and estimation for recurrent risk was done. We tried to answer those two main questions and clear the results for them.Parental chromosome abnormalities were founded after karyotyping with GTG technique at 450 band resolution, revealing 46 chromosomes with balanced translocation of autosomes in one of the partner in both families. Recurrent risk was estimated as “high” for their future pregnancies in each family.Couples in which one partner is the carrier of such balanced translocation have increased risks of infertility, recurrent abortion, and delivery of chromosomally abnormal offspring. Genetic counseling of such couples, therefore, presents a unique challenge and should be considered in dealing with such families.     

Testing ecological and behavioral correlates of nest predation

Variation in nest predation rates among bird species are assumed to reflect differences in risk that are specific to particular nest sites. Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that parental care behaviors can evolve in response to nest predation risk and thereby differ among ecological conditions that vary in inherent risk. However, parental care also can influence predation risk. Separating the effects of nest predation risk inherent to a nest site from the risk imposed by parental strategies is needed to understand the evolution of parental care. Here we identify correlations between risks inherent to nest sites, and risk associated with parental care behaviors, and use an artificial nest experiment to assess site-specific differences in nest predation risk across nesting guilds and between habitats that differed in nest predator abundance. We found a strong correlation between parental care behaviors and inherent differences in nest predation risk, but despite the absence of parental care at artificial nests, patterns of nest predation risk were similar for real and artificial nests both across nesting guilds and between predator treatments. Thus, we show for the first time that inherent risk of nest predation varies with nesting guild and predator abundance independent of parental care.     

Analysis of the relation of the frequency of new gene mutations for Mendelian diseases to parental age

The effect of parental age on mutation rates of achondroplasia, neurophibromatosis, hereditary gastrointestinal adenomatosis and Duchenne muscular dystrophy loci was studied. A significant parental age effect on the occurrence of new mutations for achondroplasia and neurophybromatosis was shown. The paternal component of this parental age effect was the major factor in the occurrence of such mutations. The risk of the occurrence of new cases of achondroplasia and neurophybromatosis, as compared with their overall frequency, due to new mutations, are increased by a factor of 2 and 3, respectively, up to the paternal age of 50. The possibility of application of the data obtained in genetic counselling is discussed.     

Estimation of genetic risks of exposure to ionizing radiation: status in the year 2000

This paper provides an overview of the advances in the estimation of genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionizing radiation with particular emphasis on the advances during the last decade. Among the latter are: (a) an upward revision of the estimates of the baseline frequencies of Mendelian diseases (from 1.25 to 2.4%); (b) the conceptual change to the use of a doubling dose based on human data on spontaneous mutation rates and mouse data on induced mutation rates (from the one based entirely on mouse data on spontaneous and induced mutation rates, which was the case thus far); (c) the fuller development of the concept of mutation component (MC) and its application to predict the responsiveness of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases to induced mutations; (d) the concept that the major adverse effects of radiation exposure of human germ cells are likely to be manifest as multi-system developmental abnormalities and (e) the concept of potential recoverability correction factor (PRCF) to bridge the gap between induced mutations studied in mice and the risk of genetic disease in humans. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/low dose-rate irradiation, the current estimates of risk for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750 to 1,500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero; chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250 to 1,200 cases and congenital abnormalities, approximately 2,000 cases. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3,000 to 4,700 cases which represent approximately 0.4 to 0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases. The main message is that at low doses of radiation of interest in risk estimation, the risk of adverse hereditary effects is small.     

Risk prediction of complex diseases from family history and known susceptibility loci, with applications for cancer screening

Risk prediction based on genomic profiles has raised a lot of attention recently. However, family history is usually ignored in genetic risk prediction. In this study we proposed a statistical framework for risk prediction given an individual's genotype profile and family history. Genotype information about the relatives can also be incorporated. We allow risk prediction given the current age and follow-up period and consider competing risks of mortality. The framework allows easy extension to any family size and structure. In addition, the predicted risk at any percentile and the risk distribution graphs can be computed analytically. We applied the method to risk prediction for breast and prostate cancers by using known susceptibility loci from genome-wide association studies. For breast cancer, in the population the 10-year risk at age 50 ranged from 1.1% at the 5th percentile to 4.7% at the 95th percentile. If we consider the average 10-year risk at age 50 (2.39%) as the threshold for screening, the screening age ranged from 62 at the 20th percentile to 38 at the 95th percentile (and some never reach the threshold). For women with one affected first-degree relative, the 10-year risks ranged from 2.6% (at the 5th percentile) to 8.1% (at the 95th percentile). For prostate cancer, the corresponding 10-year risks at age 60 varied from 1.8% to 14.9% in the population and from 4.2% to 23.2% in those with an affected first-degree relative. We suggest that for some diseases genetic testing that incorporates family history can stratify people into diverse risk categories and might be useful in targeted prevention and screening.     

Reconstruction of paleodemographic characteristics from skeletal age at death distributions: perspectives from Hitotsubashi, Japan

This is a demographic exploration of the city of Edo, which reveals the changes that accompanied its urbanization and analyzes the skeletal remains of 207 individuals from a specific site in Tokyo (Hitotsubashi), using several paleodemographic approaches. A comparison of the three methods employed herein suggests that the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation techniques provide more plausible mortality patterns than the direct method of age estimation because the direct method of age estimation relies on published age intervals for the auricular surface and that would account for the underestimation of old people relative to the other two methods. Analyses using these new approaches indicate a short life span tendency for the people of Hitotsubashi. Although we cannot rule out methodological problems of adult-age estimation, one plausible interpretation of that life expectancy is an inadequate food supply and a poor public health situation. This study suggests that, in Tokugawa Japan, urbanization might have imposed health risks, increasing the risk of mortality. Analysis of demographic data from Hitotsubashi has refined our understanding on the impact of urbanization on the Edo period, and presents new perspectives on paleodemography in Japan.     

A Life-Course Study on Effects of Parental Markers of Morbidity and Mortality on Offspring’s Suicide Attempt

Background

Research on the temporal relationship of parental risk factors with offspring’s suicide attempt is scarce and a life course approach has not been applied to date. We investigated the temporal relationship of parental morbidity and mortality with offspring’s suicide attempt and whether any such association was modified by offspring’s age at attempt.

Methods

We designed a case-control study through linkage of Swedish registers. Cases comprised all individuals in Sweden born 1973–1983 with inpatient care due to suicide attempt (15–31 years of age) and with information on both biological parents (N = 15 193). Ten controls were matched to each case (National Patient register with national complete coverage). Conditional logistic and spline regressions were applied.

Results

Particularly for women, most parental markers showed the strongest effect sizes if exposure was short-term (within 2 years after exposure) and related to the mother. Especially short-term exposure to maternal inpatient care due to psychiatric diagnoses had a significantly stronger effect on suicide attempt risk in women compared to men. Regarding exposure to parental inpatient care due to psychiatric diagnoses, short-term as opposed to long-term (exceeding 2 years after exposure) effects were highest during adolescence and decreased significantly with age for female and male offspring, respectively.

Conclusions

Although limited by the fact that data on parental morbidity and the outcome of suicidality were based on in-patient data only, the data suggest that the high risks of suicide attempt in case of exposure to parental psychopathology and suicidal behavior particularly during adolescence and the strong short-term effects associated with maternal psychopathology for female offspring are of direct clinical importance.     

Transgenerational memory effect of ageing in Drosophila

Children born to older parents tend to have lower intelligence and are at higher risk for disorders such as schizophrenia and autism. Such observations of ageing damage being passed on from parents to offspring are not often considered within the evolutionary theory of ageing. Here, we show the 25% memory impairment in Drosophila melanogaster offspring solely dependent on the age of the parents and also passed on to the F2 generation. Furthermore, this parental age effect was not attributed to a generalized reduction in condition of the offspring but was specific to short‐term memory. We also provide evidence implicating oxidative stress as a causal factor by showing that lines selected for resistance to oxidative stress did not display a memory impairment in offspring of old parents. The identification of the parental age‐related memory impairment in a model system should stimulate integration between mechanistic studies of age‐related mortality risk and functional studies of parental age effects on the fitness of future generations.     

A log-linear approach to case-parent-triad data: assessing effects of disease genes that act either directly or through maternal effects and that may be subject to parental imprinting.

We describe a log-linear method for analysis of case-parent-triad data, based on maximum likelihood with stratification on parental mating type. The method leads to estimates of association parameters, such as relative risks, for a single allele, and also to likelihood ratio chi2 tests (LRTs) of linkage disequilibrium. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium need not be assumed. Our simulations suggest that the LRT has power similar to that of the chi2 "score" test proposed by Schaid and Sommer and that both can outperform the transmission/disequilibrium test (TDT), although the TDT can perform better under an additive model of inheritance. Because a restricted version of the LRT is asymptotically equivalent to the TDT, the proposed test can be regarded as a generalization of the TDT. The method that we describe generalizes easily to accommodate maternal effects on risk and, in fact, produces powerful and orthogonal tests of the contribution of fetal versus maternal genetic factors. We further generalize the model to allow for effects of parental imprinting. Imprinting effects can be fitted by a simple, iterative procedure that relies on the expectation-maximization algorithm and that uses standard statistical software for the maximization steps. Simulations reveal that LRT tests for detection of imprinting have very good operating characteristics. When a single allele is under study, the proposed method can yield powerful tests for detection of linkage disequilibrium and is applicable to a broader array of causal scenarios than is the TDT.     

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer after radiotherapy for a childhood cancer in a large cohort study: an update from the childhood cancer survivor study

Previous studies have indicated that thyroid cancer risk after a first childhood malignancy is curvilinear with radiation dose, increasing at low to moderate doses and decreasing at high doses. Understanding factors that modify the radiation dose response over the entire therapeutic dose range is challenging and requires large numbers of subjects. We quantified the long-term risk of thyroid cancer associated with radiation treatment among 12,547 5-year survivors of a childhood cancer (leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, central nervous system cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, kidney cancer, bone cancer, neuroblastoma) diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study using the most current cohort follow-up to 2005. There were 119 subsequent pathologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases, and individual radiation doses to the thyroid gland were estimated for the entire cohort. This cohort study builds on the previous case-control study in this population (69 thyroid cancer cases with follow-up to 2000) by allowing the evaluation of both relative and absolute risks. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIR), excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of thyroid cancer associated with radiation dose. Other factors such as sex, type of first cancer, attained age, age at exposure to radiation, time since exposure to radiation, and chemotherapy (yes/no) were assessed for their effect on the linear and exponential quadratic terms describing the dose-response relationship. Similar to the previous analysis, thyroid cancer risk increased linearly with radiation dose up to approximately 20 Gy, where the relative risk peaked at 14.6-fold (95% CI, 6.8-31.5). At thyroid radiation doses >20 Gy, a downturn in the dose-response relationship was observed. The ERR model that best fit the data was linear-exponential quadratic. We found that age at exposure modified the ERR linear dose term (higher radiation risk with younger age) (P < 0.001) and that sex (higher radiation risk among females) (P = 0.008) and time since exposure (higher radiation risk with longer time) (P < 0.001) modified the EAR linear dose term. None of these factors modified the exponential quadratic (high dose) term. Sex, age at exposure and time since exposure were found to be significant modifiers of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and as such are important factors to account for in clinical follow-up and thyroid cancer risk estimation among childhood cancer survivors.     

The risks of parenthood. I. General theory and applications

Summary We use contemporary life history theory to analyze parental decisions concerned with the defense of offspring, and with the provisioning of offspring in the presence of risk. In achieving the optimal level of parental investment, the parent faces a tradeoff between present and future reproductive success. Our models, which are based on stochastic dynamic programming, lead to predictions of the following kind: (i) offspring will be defended more vigorously as they grow older; (ii) long-lived species will accept fewer risks in caring for offspring than short-lived species; (iii) parents living in permanently riskier environments will defend their offspring more vigorously than parents in less risky environments; (iv) however, temporary increases in risk will result in temporarily less vigorous defense and provisioning of offspring. The models also show that parents and their offspring have different conceptions of the optimal level of parental investment. The flexibility of our modeling approach as a method of analyzing facultative behavior is also emphasized. Finally, we apply the methods of this paper to analyze fledging behavior of Atlantic puffins.     

Transdiagnostic risk of mental disorders in offspring of affected parents: a meta-analysis of family high-risk and registry studies

The offspring of parents with mental disorders are at increased risk for developing mental disorders themselves. The risk to offspring may extend transdiagnostically to disorders other than those present in the parents. The literature on this topic is vast but mixed. To inform targeted prevention and genetic counseling, we performed a comprehensive, PRISMA 2020-compliant meta-analysis. We systematically searched the literature published up to September 2022 to retrieve original family high-risk and registry studies reporting on the risk of mental disorders in offspring of parents with any type of mental disorder. We performed random-effects meta-analyses of the relative risk (risk ratio, RR) and absolute risk (lifetime, up to the age at assessment) of mental disorders, defined according to the ICD or DSM. Cumulative incidence by offspring age was determined using meta-analytic Kaplan-Meier curves. We measured heterogeneity with the I² statistic, and risk of bias with the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Sensitivity analyses addressed the impact of study design (family high-risk vs. registry) and specific vs. transdiagnostic risks. Transdiagnosticity was appraised with the TRANSD criteria. We identified 211 independent studies that reported data on 3,172,115 offspring of parents with psychotic, bipolar, depressive, disruptive, attention-deficit/hyperactivity, anxiety, substance use, eating, obsessive-compulsive, and borderline personality disorders, and 20,428,575 control offspring. The RR and lifetime risk of developing any mental disorder were 3.0 and 55% in offspring of parents with anxiety disorders; 2.6 and 17% in offspring of those with psychosis; 2.1 and 55% in offspring of those with bipolar disorder; 1.9 and 51% in offspring of those with depressive disorders; and 1.5 and 38% in offspring of those with substance use disorders. The offspring's RR and lifetime risk of developing the same mental disorder diagnosed in their parent were 8.4 and 32% for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; 5.8 and 8% for psychosis; 5.1 and 5% for bipolar disorder; 2.8 and 9% for substance use disorders; 2.3 and 14% for depressive disorders; 2.3 and 1% for eating disorders; and 2.2 and 31% for anxiety disorders. There were 37 significant transdiagnostic associations between parental mental disorders and the RR of developing a different mental disorder in the offspring. In offspring of parents with psychosis, bipolar and depressive disorder, the risk of the same disorder onset emerged at 16, 5 and 6 years, and cumulated to 3%, 19% and 24% by age 18; and to 8%, 36% and 46% by age 28. Heterogeneity ranged from 0 to 0.98, and 96% of studies were at high risk of bias. Sensitivity analyses restricted to prospective family high-risk studies confirmed the pattern of findings with similar RR, but with greater absolute risks compared to analyses of all study types. This study demonstrates at a global, meta-analytic level that offspring of affected parents have strongly elevated RR and lifetime risk of developing any mental disorder as well as the same mental disorder diagnosed in the parent. The transdiagnostic risks suggest that offspring of parents with a range of mental disorders should be considered as candidates for targeted primary prevention.     

Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. report 12, part I. Cancer: 1950-1990

This continues the series of periodic general reports on cancer mortality in the cohort of A-bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The follow-up is extended by the 5 years 1986-1990, and analysis includes an additional 10,500 survivors with recently estimated radiation doses. Together these extensions add about 550,000 person-years of follow-up. The cohort analyzed consists of 86,572 subjects, of which about 60% have dose estimates of at least 0.005 Sv. During 1950-1990 there have been 3086 and 4741 cancer deaths for the less than and greater than 0.005 Sv groups, respectively. It is estimated that among these there have been approximately 420 excess cancer deaths during 1950-1990, of which about 85 were due to leukemia. For cancers other than leukemia (solid cancers), about 25% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred during the last 5 years; for those exposed as children this figure is nearly 50%. For leukemia only about 3% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred in the last 5 years. Whereas most of the excess for leukemia occurred in the first 15 years after exposure, for solid cancers the pattern of excess risk is apparently more like a life-long elevation of the natural age-specific cancer risk. Taking advantage of the lengthening follow-up, increased attention is given to clarifying temporal patterns of the excess cancer risk. Emphasis is placed on describing these patterns in terms of absolute excess risk, as well as relative risk. For example: (a) although it is becoming clearer that the excess relative risk for those exposed as children has declined over the follow-up, the excess absolute risk has increased rapidly with time; and (b) although the excess relative risk at a given age depends substantially on sex and age at exposure, the age-specific excess absolute risk depends little on these factors. The primary estimates of excess risk are now given as specific to sex and age at exposure, and these include projections of dose-specific lifetime risks for this cohort. The excess lifetime risk per sievert for solid cancers for those exposed at age 30 is estimated at 0.10 and 0.14 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about one-third these risks. Projection of lifetime risks for those exposed at age 10 is more uncertain. Under a reasonable set of assumptions, estimates for this group range from about 1.0-1.8 times the estimates for those exposed at age 30. The excess life-time risk for leukemia at 1 Sv for those exposed at either 10 or 30 years is estimated as about 0.015 and 0.008 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about two-thirds that risk. Excess risks for solid cancer appear quite linear up to about 3 Sv, but for leukemia apparent nonlinearity in dose results in risks at 0.1 Sv estimated at about 1/20 of those for 1.0 Sv. Site-specific risk estimates are given, but it is urged that great care be taken in interpreting these, because most of their variation can be explained simply by imprecision in the estimates.     

Assessment of Human Health Risk for an Area Impacted by a Large-Scale Metallurgical Refinery Complex in Hunan,China

Due to accelerated urbanization and reform of industrial structure in China, polluting industries in major cities have been closed or relocated. Consequently, large numbers of industrial sites were generated and the contaminated soils on and around these sites may pose risks to humans. This case study presents an estimation of human health risks for an area that is mainly impacted through air dispersion and deposition from a large-scale metallurgical refinery complex in Zhuzhou city, Hunan Province, China. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks posed by the contaminants were estimated under future industrial and residential land use scenarios. The result shows that adverse health effects may occur primarily through ingestion of soils contaminated with As, Cd, and Pb. The total carcinogenic risks of multiple contaminants for a large area exceed the acceptable risk level of 1 × 10^?5, and several localized hotspots, where the total hazard index exceeds 1 were identified. Soils in the Tongda site pose the highest carcinogenic risks and non-carcinogenic hazards. It is concluded that potential human health risks exist under the proposed redevelopment scenarios, and development of risk-based remediation strategies is recommended.