首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Resonance in seasonally forced SIR epidemiological models may lead to stable solutions in which the epidemic period is an integer multiple of the forcing period. We examine the influence of immune cross-protection and cross-enhancement on the epidemic phase relationship of resonance solutions in an annually forced two-strain SIR model. Solutions with epidemics of the two strains in-phase commonly occur for wide ranges of cross-reaction intensity. Solutions with epidemics out-of-phase are less common and limited to narrow ranges of cross-reaction intensity. This is broadly as predicted by the two natural periods of the system. The natural period corresponding to out-of-phase solutions is sensitive to changes in the cross-reaction parameter but the natural period corresponding to in-phase solutions is constant. Bifurcation analysis indicates that the stability of in-phase orbits is controlled by pitchfork and period doubling bifurcations while out-of-phase orbits may also be influenced by Andronov-Hopf bifurcations. In order to develop an intuitive understanding of the epidemiological factors governing the occurrence of different solutions we consider how the susceptible, infected and removed components of the system must interact to form a stable solution. This shows that the impact of cross-reaction is moderated by in-phase structures but amplified by out-of-phase structures. Although the average infection rate over long time periods is not affected by phase structure, this analysis indicates that in-phase epidemic patterns are likely to be more consistent and thus allow more effective health care management.  相似文献   

2.
Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007-2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality.  相似文献   

3.
Aim  We investigated geographical variation in the density of the red fox in relation to climatic variables, habitat productivity and seasonality to identify those factors that were the best predictors of fox density.
Location  Published data on red fox abundance were collated from 69 locations over Europe and Asia.
Methods  Using generalized linear models and the information-theoretic approach, we analysed the contribution of climatic measures (winter and summer temperature, mean snow depth and duration), primary productivity and seasonality indices [based on the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) index] to account for variation in red fox density.
Results  Red fox density in winter ranged from 0.001–2.8 individuals km−2; the average density was 0.21 individuals km−2. Variation in red fox density was best explained by the winter temperature and seasonality. Density decreased with declining winter and summer temperatures, increasing degree of seasonality and increasing duration of snow cover. There was no relationship with habitat productivity.
Main conclusions  Our results indicate that winter climatic conditions and seasonality, but not habitat productivity, may limit red fox density in Eurasia. One explanation for the limitation of the red fox population may be the fox's physiological capability to cope with abiotic conditions. Concurrently, the severity of winter may lead to reduced availability of the fox's prey. That, together with a shorter reproductive period may result in lower reproductive output as well as lower survival of adults and cubs.  相似文献   

4.
Synchronous with the decline in fertility that took place in the post-war period in the Netherlands, patterns of birth seasonality changed as well. In this paper seasonal fluctuations in fertility in the Netherlands are examined using population register data for the period 1952 to 2005. The peak in births has changed from spring to summer and subsequently to August/September, thereby shifting from the European to the American pattern. The seasonal shift can be attributed to parity-specific changes. Before the transition, birth seasonality did not differ much between the different parities. In the transition period from higher to low fertility, differences between parities increased which persist up to today. At present, the overall seasonality pattern is determined by first births. Moreover, birth seasonality varies by maternal age. The findings stimulate the discussion on the role of planning as a cause of birth seasonality.  相似文献   

5.
Seasonal changes in populations of Proteocephalus macrocephalus (Creplin) were investigated for 17 months in the European eel, Anguilla anguilla (Linnaeus), in two rivers in Devon, SW England, but no clear seasonal patterns in prevalence and abundance were apparent. Population levels of the cestode are low in both localities, and it is suggested that natural population levels of P. macrocephalus may generally be low. However, growth and maturation of the cestode show marked seasonality with both occurring mainly in early summer.  相似文献   

6.
Birds that are year‐round residents of temperate and tropical regions have divergent life histories. Tropical birds have a slower ‘pace of life’, one characteristic of which includes lower peak metabolic rate and daily activity levels. Temperate resident birds are faced with seasonal variation in thermogenic demand. This challenge is met with seasonally increased peak metabolic rate during winter. These thermogenic demands are much lower in birds that are year‐round tropical residents. By measuring peak (summit) metabolic rate in tropical and temperate resident bird species during summer and winter, we asked whether tropical birds exhibit seasonality in peak metabolic rate, and if the direction of seasonality differs between tropical and temperate species. We measured summit metabolism in seven tropical and one temperate species during the winter and during the summer breeding season to test the hypothesis that summit metabolism of tropical residents would change seasonally. We consider whether metabolic seasonality is associated with breeding season for tropical species. We found that summit metabolism was significantly greater during the summer for most tropical residents, while the temperate resident matched several previous reports with higher summit metabolism in winter. We conclude that metabolic seasonality occurs in tropical residents and differs from temperate residents, suggesting that breeding during the summer may be driving relatively higher metabolism as compared to winter thermogenesis in temperate birds.  相似文献   

7.
Lal A  Hales S  French N  Baker MG 《PloS one》2012,7(4):e31883

Background

Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18).

Conclusions/Significance

Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.  相似文献   

8.
More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.  相似文献   

9.
The population carbon budget and seasonality of Boeckella minutain a newly formed subtropical reservoir were examined 3 yearsafter the reservoir filled. Average daily biomass was 26.4 mgC m–3 and the annual population carbon budget was: consumption2470, egestion 1482, assimilation 988, production 493 and respiration495, mg C m–3 year–1, and the average P/B and P/Aratios were 0.08 and 0.5 respectively. Clutch size and reproductiveeffort (egg production/assimilation) were low, and the proportionof males decreased throughout the population cycle. The seasonalabundance pattern changed from perennial (pre-filling years)to a 7 month cycle. It is suggested that eutrophication andthe spring bloom of cyanobacteria may have accentuated a seasonaldecrease in reproductive effort and survival, leading to anabsence of planktonic stages during summer, and that restingeggs facilitated population survival during the summer periodof stratification.  相似文献   

10.
During spring and summer, we studied the thermal ecology of two populations of the Balearic lizard, Podarcis lilfordi, from two coastal islets of Menorca (Balearic Islands, Spain): Aire and Colom. We calculated the accuracy of thermoregulation, that is, the extent to which body temperatures are close to species' thermal optima, the thermal quality of the habitat as the proximity of operative temperatures to thermal optima and effectiveness of thermoregulation, as the extent to which accuracy is higher than thermal quality of the habitat. We found that seasonality affects thermoregulation differently, depending on the lizard population. Those effects are consistent for all thermal parameters under study. The effects of seasonality were significantly stronger in Aire than in Colom islet. Many factors may be responsible for this different effect of seasonality, from differences on physiological traits to differences in the environmental conditions of the two islets, as their resource availability, predator pressure or habitat structure. Identifying the factors that boost or inhibit those seasonal changes would be important to understand thermoregulation in lizards. Slight changes on two similar populations can lead to great differences in thermal ecology of conspecific ectotherms.  相似文献   

11.
Many insect species undergo multiple generations each year. They are found across biomes that vary in their strength of seasonality and, depending on location and species, can display a wide range of population dynamics. Some species exhibit cycles with distinct generations (developmental synchrony/generation separation), some exhibit overlapping generations with multiple life stages present simultaneously (generation smearing), while others have intermediate dynamics with early season separation followed by late season smearing. There are two main hypotheses to explain these dynamics. The first is the ‘seasonal disturbance’ hypothesis where winter synchronizes the developmental clock among individuals, which causes transient generation separation early in the season that erodes through the summer. The second is the ‘temperature destabilization’ hypothesis where warm temperatures during the summer cause population dynamics to become unstable giving rise to single generation cycles. Both hypotheses are supported by detailed mathematical theory incorporating mechanisms that are likely to drive dynamics in nature. In this review, we synthesize the theory and propose a conceptual framework—where each mechanism may be seen as an independent axis shaping the developmental (a)synchrony—that allows us to predict dynamic patterns from insect life-history characteristics. High fecundity, short adult life-span and strong seasonality enhance synchrony, while developmental plasticity and environmental heterogeneity erode synchrony. We further review current mathematical and statistical tools to study multi-generational dynamics and illustrate using case studies of multivoltine tortrix moths. By integrating two disparate bodies of theory, we articulate a deep connection among temperature, stability, developmental synchrony and inter-generational dynamics of multivoltine insects that is missing in current literature.  相似文献   

12.
Understanding the evolutionary pressures that may have led to the development and retention of delayed implantation in mammals remains an enigmatic puzzle for evolutionary ecologists. Recent studies suggest a strong role of environmental conditions but other attributes of species, notably body size and life history traits, may obscure primary mechanisms. Following the recommendation of Lindenfors et al., we examined environmental correlates related to the evolution of delayed implantation and its subsequent maintenance or loss in the family Mustelidae (Mammalia: Carnivora). We focused on the Mustelidae because evolution and subsequent loss of delayed implantation occurred most commonly within this group. Data on 34 species of mustelids from around the world suggest that delayed implantation may have evolved when optimal times for mating and birthing are separated by more than a gestation period, characteristic of environments with long winters that reduce the opportunities to find mates. Environmental characteristics (seasonality, temperature, snow, latitude, and primary productivity) were highly intercorrelated but seasonality was the best predictor of the evolution or loss of delayed implantation via population traits. Here, structural equations on phylogenetic independent contrasts revealed that high seasonality was correlated with low population density and large individual home range size, which in turn was correlated with presence/absence of delayed implantation. We argue that the evolution of delayed implantation provides the reproductive means to mate during the season (summer) with the greatest prospects for females to ‘choose’ mates when living in high‐latitude seasonal environments that generally reduce these opportunities (i.e. low population density and large ranges). Body mass of female mustelids did not differ between species with and without delayed implantation, refuting the hypothesis that loss of delayed implantation is an evolutionary by‐product of evolving to smaller size. We conclude that understanding the environmental selection pressures responsible for the evolution of life history traits related to density and spacing behaviour allows for a more complete picture of the evolution and subsequent loss of delayed implantation.  相似文献   

13.
It has been shown that the population average blood glucose level of diabetes patients shows seasonal variation, with higher levels in the winter than summer. However, seasonality in the population averages could be due to a tendency in the individual to seasonal variation, or alternatively due to occasional high winter readings (spiking), with different individuals showing this increase in different winters. A method was developed to rule out spiking as the dominant pattern underlying the seasonal variation in the population averages. Three years of data from three community-serving laboratories in Israel were retrieved. Diabetes patients (N?=?3243) with a blood glucose result every winter and summer over the study period were selected. For each individual, the following were calculated: seasonal average glucose for all winters and summers over the period of study (2006-2009), winter-summer difference for each adjacent winter-summer pair, and average of these five differences, an index of the degree of spikiness in the pattern of the six seasonal levels, and number of times out of five that each winter-summer difference was positive. Seasonal population averages were examined. The distribution of the individual's differences between adjacent seasons (winter minus summer) was examined and compared between subgroups. Seasonal population averages were reexamined in groups divided according to the index of the degree of spikiness in the individual's glucose pattern over the series of seasons. Seasonal population averages showed higher winter than summer levels. The overall median winter-summer difference on the individual level was 8?mg/dL (0.4?mmol/L). In 16.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.6-18.2%) of the population, all five winter-summer differences were positive versus 3.6% (95% CI: 3.0-4.2%) where all five winter-summer differences were negative. Seasonal variation in the population averages was not attenuated in the group having the lowest spikiness index; comparison of the distributions of the winter-summer differences in the high-, medium-, and low-spikiness groups showed no significant difference (p?=?.213). Therefore, seasonality in the population average blood glucose in diabetes patients is not just the result of occasional high measurements in different individuals in different winters, but presumably reflects a general periodic tendency in individuals for winter glucose levels to be higher than summer levels.  相似文献   

14.
Rafel Coma  Marta Ribes 《Oikos》2003,101(1):205-215
The aim of this work is to examine the role of food as a constraining factor at different levels of ecological organization in benthic littoral ecosystems. In the search for patterns in ecological systems, it has recently been documented that seasonality in the dynamics of benthic suspension feeders (BSF) in the Mediterranean Sea is characterized by summer dormancy. We review recent studies on seston availability in the water column and feeding and respiration by BSF in the Mediterranean. The objective is to assess whether a pattern across particular studies exists that could provide evidence of food as a constraining factor. A pattern emerges from these organism‐level studies, one which indicates the seasonal occurrence of an energy shortage in the taxa exhibiting summer dormancy. This energy shortage is closely related to low food availability and suggests that an energetic constraint underlie the summer dormancy phenomenon. The seasonal occurrence of summer energy shortage also appears to affect the dynamics of BSF at population and community level. In this sense, in late summer 1999, a mass mortality event of BSF affected several hundreds of kilometers in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean). The fact that the mass mortality event occurred in late summer and especially affected the taxa that exhibit energy shortage – such as anthozoans and sponges – suggests, that energetic constraints may contribute to the understanding of the mass mortality event. The energy shortage phenomenon may provide a mechanism to understand how the occurrence of anomalous climatic conditions may have induced the mass mortality of some BSF taxa. This review points out the existence of a common energy shortage phenomenon mainly related to low food availability as an important determinant of the dynamics of most BSF taxa at organism level in the Mediterranean. But this determinant also affects the dynamics of BSF at population and community level. Therefore, the extant data point up the crucial role of food as a constraining factor for benthic littoral ecosystems in oligotrophic areas like the Mediterranean, with important seasonal variations in seston abundance and composition.  相似文献   

15.
Population regulation in the Wood Mouse Apodemus sylvaticus (L.)   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Watts 1969 described the population cycle of the Wood Mouse Apodemus sylvaticus as a decline in numbers in spring, a stable period in summer and an increase phase in autumn. Aggression by adult males was considered an important aspect of population regulation limiting male survival in spring and juvenile recruitment in summer. However, recent studies of range behaviour and experimental investigations suggest that male A. sylvaticus are not relevant in population regulation and that the principal regulating factors act on female reproductive success. Female reproductive activity is determined by spatial interactions which, in turn, are determined primarily by the density of females and the proportion of female immigrants in the population. The only impact adult males may have on population size is through infanticide and competition with the females for food.  相似文献   

16.
Long-lived animals, including social insects, often display seasonal shifts in foraging behavior. Foraging is ultimately a nutrient consumption exercise, but the effect of seasonality per se on changes in foraging behavior, particularly as it relates to nutrient regulation, is poorly understood. Here, we show that field-collected fire ant colonies, returned to the laboratory and maintained under identical photoperiod, temperature, and humidity regimes, and presented with experimental foods that had different protein (p) to carbohydrate (c) ratios, practice summer- and fall-specific foraging behaviors with respect to protein-carbohydrate regulation. Summer colonies increased the amount of food collected as the p:c ratio of their food became increasingly imbalanced, but fall colonies collected similar amounts of food regardless of the p:c ratio of their food. Choice experiments revealed that feeding was non-random, and that both fall and summer ants preferred carbohydrate-biased food. However, ants rarely ate all the food they collected, and their cached or discarded food always contained little carbohydrate relative to protein. From a nutrient regulation strategy, ants consumed most of the carbohydrate they collected, but regulated protein consumption to a similar level, regardless of season. We suggest that varied seasonal food collection behaviors and nutrient regulation strategies may be an adaptation that allows long-lived animals to meet current and future nutrient demands when nutrient-rich foods are abundant (e.g. spring and summer), and to conserve energy and be metabolically more efficient when nutritionally balanced foods are less abundant.  相似文献   

17.
Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) by boreal evergreen trees have strong seasonality, with low emission rates during photosynthetically inactive winter and increasing rates towards summer. Yet, the regulation of this seasonality remains unclear. We measured in situ monoterpene emissions from Scots pine shoots during several spring periods and analysed their dynamics in connection with the spring recovery of photosynthesis. We found high emission peaks caused by enhanced monoterpene synthesis consistently during every spring period (monoterpene emission bursts, MEB). The timing of the MEBs varied relatively little between the spring periods. The timing of the MEBs showed good agreement with the photosynthetic spring recovery, which was studied with simultaneous measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence, CO2 exchange and a simple, temperature history‐based proxy for state of photosynthetic acclimation, S. We conclude that the MEBs were related to the early stages of photosynthetic recovery, when the efficiency of photosynthetic carbon reactions is still low whereas the light harvesting machinery actively absorbs light energy. This suggests that the MEBs may serve a protective functional role for the foliage during this critical transitory state and that these high emission peaks may contribute to atmospheric chemistry in the boreal forest in springtime.  相似文献   

18.
Birth records of the French-Canadian population for the period 1621-1765 were analyzed retrospectively to examine the effect of maternal birth season on the seasonal distribution of births. Preliminary examination indicated that there was a bimodal pattern in birth seasonality: a major peak in early spring, a trough in early summer, a minor peak in autumn, and a trough around December. Because this seasonality was strongly biased at the level of the first birth by the month of marriage, which was concentrated in November, the seasonality of nonfirst births (n = 32,926) was examined in relation to the four seasons of maternal birth. Mothers born in May-July showed a flatter monthly distribution of nonfirst births at a maternal age of 28 years or more. Analysis of marriage-first birth intervals indicated that mothers who married in August-October showed a lower percentage of immediate conception (intervals of 8-10 months), whereas those mothers born in May-July had a higher percentage of immediate conception. This difference in birth seasonality shown by mothers born in May-July is similar to results from early twentieth-century Japan. Some seasonal infertility factors could have affected the embryos at the earliest stage of pregnancy, modifying a part of the seasonal variation in birth rate.  相似文献   

19.
The Canadian Arctic is an extreme environment with low floral and faunal diversity characterized by major seasonal shifts in temperature, moisture, and daylight. Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are one of few large herbivores able to survive this harsh environment. Microbiome research of the gastrointestinal tract may hold clues as to how muskoxen exist in the Arctic, but also how this species may respond to rapid environmental changes. In this study, we investigated the effects of season (spring/summer/winter), year (2007–2016), and host genetic structure on population‐level microbiome variation in muskoxen from the Canadian Arctic. We utilized 16S rRNA gene sequencing to characterize the fecal microbial communities of 78 male muskoxen encompassing two population genetic clusters. These clusters are defined by Arctic Mainland and Island populations, including the following: (a) two mainland sampling locations of the Northwest Territories and Nunavut and (b) four locations of Victoria Island. Between these geographic populations, we found that differences in the microbiome reflected host‐associated genetic cluster with evidence of migration. Within populations, seasonality influenced bacterial diversity with no significant differences between years of sampling. We found evidence of pathogenic bacteria, with significantly higher presence in mainland samples. Our findings demonstrate the effects of seasonality and the role of host population‐level structure in driving fecal microbiome differences in a large Arctic mammal.  相似文献   

20.
Bipolar disorder seasonality has been documented previously, though information on the effect of demographic and clinical variables on seasonal patterns is scant. This study examined effects of age, sex, index admission, and predominant polarity on bipolar disorder seasonality in a nationwide population. An inpatient cohort admitted to hospital exclusively for mental illness was derived from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for 2002–2007. The authors identified 9619 inpatients with bipolar disorder, who had generated 15 078 acute admission records. An empirical mode decomposition method was used to identify seasonal oscillations in bipolar admission data, and regression and cross-correlation analyses were used to quantify the degree and timing of bipolar admission seasonality. Results for seasonality timing found that manic or mixed episodes peak in spring or summer, and depressive episodes peak in winter. Analysis for degree of seasonality revealed that (1) the polarity of patients' index admission predicted the seasonality of relapse admissions; (2) seasonality was significant in female admissions for depressive episodes and in male admissions for manic episodes; (3) young adults displayed a higher degree of seasonality for acute admissions than middle-aged adults; and (4) patients with predominantly depressive admissions displayed a higher degree of seasonality than patients with predominantly manic admissions. Demographic and clinical variables were found to affect the seasonality of acute admissions for bipolar disorders. These findings highlight the need for research on identification and management of seasonal features in bipolar patients. (Author correspondence: )  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号