Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia

Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.     

Life history and population dynamics of the western mosquitofish: a comparison of natural and introduced populations

Life history and population dynamic patterns of Gambusia affinis in southeastern Louisiana varied spatially and temporally in 1990 and 1991, but were consistent with previous reports of this species in the southern regions of its natural range. Several differences exist among populations in different geographic regions within the United States, as reported in the literature, which do not follow a' native v . introduced' dichotomy: (1) brood size decreases and offspring size increases from north to south; (2) large overwintered females in northern areas produce more broods within a season than those in southern populations, while the reverse is true for young-of–year females; (3) minimum size at first reproduction follows a seasonal pattern within populations, but tends to be smaller in southern and larger in northern and Hawaiian populations; (4) synchronous reproduction early in the season is characteristic of northern populations, but does not occur in southern areas; and (5) mosquitofish reproduce year–round in Hawaii, while 'southern' populations within the continental U.S. cease reproduction during winter.     

Estimation and computation of the growth rate in Leslie's and Lotka's population models.

Leslie's or Lotka's population model has a rate of natural increase (lambda or r) which represents the growth rate of the population and characterizes the ability of the population to attain a stable age distribution. In this article are presented upper and lower bounds on that rate, primarily in terms of the net reproduction rate and other commonly used parameters of the population. Also a discussion is given of quadratically convergent numerical iterative methods of computing the growth rate.     

Evolution of reproductive effort in viscous populations: the importance of population dynamics

I present two ecological models for the evolution of reproductive effort in viscous populations with empty sites. In contrast with previous studies, I show that limited dispersal needs not have a positive effect on the evolutionarily stable allocation of resources to fecundity versus survival. Rather, depending on the feedback between the trait and the population dynamics, population viscosity may have no effect or even lead to a decrease in the evolutionarily stable reproductive effort when individuals can degrade their environment during their lifetime. I show that the different evolutionary outcomes can be explained by the asymmetry in the level of kin competition resulting from investing into juveniles or into adults.     

The natural regulation of buffalo populations in East Africa: II. Reproduction,recruitment and growth*

Aspects of the seasonality of breeding, age-specific fertility, and growth were studied in a sample of animals collected from the Serengeti buffalo population, and compared with two populations in Uganda. Fluctuations in fertility and recruitment were studied by the use of regular aerial photographic samples of herds in the Serengeti. The fluctuations in fertility rate were not related to density and hence could not have regulated the population. Buffalo show a pronounced seasonality in births which is correlated with the quality of ingested food and with rainfall. Since the female has a considerably higher food requirement during late pregnancy and lactation, nutrition is probably an important factor determining this seasonality. Conception does not appear to be influenced by nutrition, for the quality of food remains high throughout the rainy season prior to and during the period of conception. Growth rate, age of first ovulation, and age of sexual maturity do not appear to differ between the Serengeti and Uganda populations. Although there is little difference in fertility between these populations, as measured from the collected samples, little weight can be placed on this evidence, for large fluctuations in fertility can take place from year to year within a population. The fluctuations in the Serengeti population do not appear to be correlated with rainfall, and it is possible that they are random. Fluctuations in recruitment from year to year are also observed. Two sample areas over 100 km apart but within the same population show parallel fluctuations suggesting a similar external influence on the size of the recruitment. This recruitment is not correlated with population size but it may be related to rainfall. Underweight calves at birth have been recorded and this may have been caused by the undernutrition of pregnant females during the dry season through a combination of poor food supply and the demands of the previous lactation.     

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: there goes the neighborhood

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (N_e) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating structure, as envisioned by Wright''s concept of neighborhood size (NS), and evaluated performance of a single-sample estimator based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), which provides an estimate of the effective number of parents that produced the sample (N_b). Results illustrate the interacting effects of two phenomena, drift and mixture, that contribute to LD. Samples from areas equal to or smaller than a breeding window produced estimates close to the NS. As the sampling window increased in size to encompass multiple genetic neighborhoods, mixture LD from a two-locus Wahlund effect overwhelmed the reduction in drift LD from incorporating offspring from more parents. As a consequence, never approached the global N_e, even when the geographic scale of sampling was large. Results indicate that caution is needed in applying standard methods for estimating effective size to continuously distributed populations.     

Complexity in conservation: lessons from the global decline of amphibian populations

As part of an overall "biodiversity crisis" many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous causes have been invoked to explain these declines. These include habitat destruction, climate change, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation, environmental contamination, disease, and the introduction of non-native species. In this paper, we argue that amphibian population declines are caused by different abiotic and biotic factors acting together in a context-dependent fashion. Moreover, different species and different populations of the same species may react in different ways to the same environmental insult. Thus, the causes of amphibian population declines will vary spatially and temporally. Although some generalizations (e.g. those concerning environmental stress and disease outbreaks) can be made about amphibian population declines, we suggest that these generalizations take into account the context-dependent dynamics of ecological systems.     

Density-dependent growth as a key mechanism in the regulation of fish populations: evidence from among-population comparisons.

It is generally assumed that fish populations are regulated primarily in the juvenile (pre-recruit) phase of the life cycle, although density dependence in growth and reproductive parameters within the recruited phase has been widely reported. Here we present evidence to suggest that density-dependent growth in the recruited phase is a key process in the regulation of many fish populations. We analyse 16 fish populations with long-term records of size-at-age and biomass data, and detect significant density-dependent growth in nine. Among-population comparisons show a close, inverse relationship between the estimated decline in asymptotic length per unit biomass density, and the long-term average biomass density of populations. A simple population model demonstrates that regulation by density-dependent growth alone is sufficient to generate the observed relationship. Density-dependent growth should be accounted for in fisheries' assessments, and the empirical relationship established here can provide indicative estimates of the density-dependent growth parameter where population-specific data are lacking.     

A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries

A major goal of ecology is to discover how dynamics and structure of multi-trophic ecological communities are related. This is difficult, because whole-community data are limited and typically comprise only a snapshot of a community instead of a time series of dynamics, and mathematical models of complex system dynamics have a large number of unmeasured parameters and therefore have been only tenuously related to real systems. These are related problems, because long time-series, if they were commonly available, would enable inference of parameters. The resulting ‘plague of parameters’ means most studies of multi-species population dynamics have been very theoretical. Dynamical models parametrized using physiological allometries may offer a partial cure for the plague of parameters, and these models are increasingly used in theoretical studies. However, physiological allometries cannot determine all parameters, and the models have also rarely been directly tested against data. We confronted a model of community dynamics with data from a lake community. Many important empirical patterns were reproducible as outcomes of dynamics, and were not reproducible when parameters did not follow physiological allometries. Results validate the usefulness, when parameters follow physiological allometries, of classic differential-equation models for understanding whole-community dynamics and the structure–dynamics relationship.     

Reconstructing the oaks’ growth patterns in Greece with the use of historical timber: Case studies from Western Peloponnese

Southern Greece is a region where available oak reference chronologies are still missing, making dendroarchaeology and dating of historical buildings rather challenging, if not impossible. In the current study we performed wood identification and dendroarchaeological analysis on timber from three historical buildings: the castles of Androusa and Koroni and the Church of Agios Dimitrios, in Western Peloponnese. The three monuments represent buildings of different uses covering different periods, but also sharing a common characteristic: oak was the only timber used in their construction, while the number of preserved timber elements is very limited. A dendroarchaeological examination of these three historical buildings, together with radiocarbon and wiggle-matching analysis, provided valuable chronological information for the local archaeologists, historians, and other scientists. Application of dendrochronological techniques has helped place the three buildings under study into the Ottoman period. Our results also show that timber was acquired most probably from local non-managed forests, which suggests that oak forests were present in the broader area at least from the late 15th to the first half of the 18th centuries. The discordance between dendrochronological and radiocarbon dates in one of the three cases highlights the need for further exploration of the study area through a combined implementation of both dendrochronological and radiocarbon dating analyses in order to develop well-replicated local oak chronologies. Our study also shows that dendroarchaeology can contribute significantly to the cultural and landscape history of Western Peloponnese even with an examination of limited number of preserved timber elements from historical buildings.     

Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models

Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land‐use change, and altered disturbance regimes on species' extinction risk. Each modelling component introduces its own source of uncertainty through different parameters and assumptions, which, when combined, can result in compounded uncertainty that can have major implications for management. Although some uncertainty analyses have been conducted separately on various model components – such as climate predictions, species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and population models – a unified sensitivity analysis comparing various sources of uncertainty in combined modelling approaches is needed to identify the most influential and problematic assumptions. We estimated the sensitivities of long‐run population predictions to different ecological assumptions and parameter settings for a rare and endangered annual plant species (Acanthomintha ilicifolia, or San Diego thornmint). Uncertainty about habitat suitability predictions, due to the choice of species distribution model, contributed most to variation in predictions about long‐run populations.     

Rhizobium population genetics: Effect of clover variety and inoculum dilution on the genetic diversity sampled from natural populations

Concentrations of N, P and K were measured in floodwater and in floating rice cultivars growing at up to 2m water depths in the central flood plain of Thailand. Concentrations of N, P and K in floodwater were often higher than those reported for oligotrophic lakes, nevertheless the floodwater contained 4–45 times less K and 15–90 times less N than concentrations reported in most soil solutions. P concentrations were similar in the floodwater and in most soil solutions. Concentrations of nutrients in leaves indicated there may be deficiencies of P at two sites and a deficiency of N at one of two sites. Data are discussed in terms of reduced nutrient uptake in rice fields at low O₂ concentrations which have recently been measured in these areas.     

DNA fingerprinting: parentage studies in natural populations and the importance of linkage analysis.

It has been suggested that a full linkage analysis is a prerequisite for confident paternity testing, by using DNA fingerprinting, in natural populations. These fears are based on a confusion between linkage and linkage disequilibrium and a misplaced assumption that linkage between bands will necessarily reduce the effective number of paternal-specific bands. Several methods for detecting linkage without resorting to the analysis of large sibships are considered, for example, by analysing half-sibships, by band-association, and by altering the experimental conditions used. Even if linkage is present, the magnitude of its effects are unlikely to undermine the accuracy of the technique, given the average levels of variability being detected. We conclude that the effects of linkage are only likely to present a problem when sample sizes are very small or when closely related individuals are being tested together.     

Realistic population dynamics in epidemiological models: the impact of population decline on the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases. Measles in Italy as an example

Most contributions in the field of mathematical modelling of childhood infectious diseases transmission dynamics have focused on stationary or exponentially growing populations. In this paper an epidemiological model with realistic demography is used to investigate the impact of the non-equilibrium conditions typical of the transition to sustained below replacement fertility (BRF) recently observed in a number of western countries, upon the transmission dynamics of measles. The results depend on the manner we model the relation between the (changing) age distribution of the population and contacts. Under some circumstances the transitional ageing phase typical of BRF populations might complexly interact with epidemiological variables leading to (i) a substantial reduction in the amount of vaccination effort required for eliminating the disease; (ii) a significant magnification of the perverse impact of vaccination in terms of the burden of severe age related morbidity.     

Growth regulation of the interstitial cell population in hydra : I. Evidence for global control by nerve cells in the head

The interstitial cells of hydra form a multipotent stem cell system, producing terminally differentiated nerve cells and nematocytes during asexual growth. Under well-fed conditions the interstitial cell population doubles in size every 4 days. We have investigated the possible role of nerve cells in regulating this behavior. Nerve cells are normally found in highest concentrations in the head region of hydra, while interstitial cells are primarily located in the body column. Our experimental approach was to construct, by grafting, animals in which the density of nerve cells varied in (1) the head region, or (2) the body column. The growth of the interstitial cell population was then measured in these hydra. The results indicate that differences in head nerve cell density are closely correlated with how fast the interstitial cell population increases in size. Variations in the level of either nerve cells or interstitial cells in the body column showed no such correlation. These findings suggest the existence of a signaling mechanism in the head region. This signal, which is a function of the density of head nerve cells, emanates from the head tissue and exerts global control on the growth of the interstitial cell population in the body column.     

Resource requirements of four freshwater diatom taxa determined by in situ growth bioassays using natural populations from alpine lakes

We performed a series of in situ batch culture experiments to assess the resource requirements of common diatom taxa in alpine lakes of the central Rocky Mountains of North America. While physiological data are available on the resource requirements of some of these taxa, it is unclear whether intraspecific generalizations can be made across aquatic systems due to the potential development of ecotypes. In these experiments, we used amended lake water for a culture medium and natural diatom populations. Growth kinetics were determined for Asterionella formosa Hassall, Fragilaria crotonensis Kitton, Staurosirella pinnata (Ehr.) Williams and Round and Tetracyclus glans (Ehr.) Mills. Staurosirella pinnata, a historically abundant alpine diatom, had very low N and P requirements. Asterionella formosa and F. crotonensis, generally considered meso- or eutrophic species, exhibited low P requirements if N and Si were in moderate supply. Tetracyclus glans had the highest Si requirement. These experiments reveal that the recent changes in diatom community structure in these alpine lakes may be driven by changes in nutrient supply. We suggest that local diatom taxa and a natural culturing medium should be used to obtain more representative algal physiological data from a particular area.     

Oscillations in continuous culture populations of Streptococcus pneumoniae: population dynamics and the evolution of clonal suicide

Agents that kill or induce suicide in the organisms that produce them or other individuals of the same genotype are intriguing puzzles for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. When those organisms are pathogenic bacteria, these suicidal toxins have the added appeal as candidates for the development of narrow spectrum antibiotics to kill the pathogens that produce them. We show that when clinical as well as laboratory strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae are maintained in continuous culture (chemostats), their densities oscillate by as much as five orders of magnitude with an apparently constant period. This dynamic, which is unanticipated for single clones of bacteria in chemostats, can be attributed to population-wide die-offs and recoveries. Using a combination of mathematical models and experiments with S. pneumoniae, we present evidence that these die-offs can be attributed to the autocatalytic production of a toxin that lyses or induces autolysis in members of the clone that produces it. This toxin, which our evidence indicates is a protein, appears to be novel; S. pneumoniae genetic constructs knocked out for lytA and other genes coding for known candidates for this agent oscillate in chemostat culture. Since this toxin lyses different strains of S. pneumoniae as well as other closely related species of Streptococcus, we propose that its ecological role is as an allelopathic agent. Using a mathematical model, we explore the conditions under which toxins that kill members of the same clone that produces them can prevent established populations from invasion by different strains of the same or other species. We postulate that the production of the toxin observed here as well as other bacteria-produced toxins that kill members of the same genotype, ‘clonal suicide’, evolved and are maintained to prevent colonization of established populations by different strains of the same and closely related species.     

Neighborhood models of plant population dynamics 3. Models with spatial heterogeneity in the physical environment

Population dynamic models are developed for communities of annual plants in spatially heterogeneous environments. These models are constructed from submodels of the survivorship, fecundity, germination, and dispersal of individual plants. The submodels include the effects of spatially local interactions on plant performance and the spatial variation in performance caused by spatial heterogeneity in the physical environment. It is possible to estimate the submodels from data on experimental communities in either the field or greenhouse and so it is possible to empirically calibrate the population dynamic models developed. Each population dynamic model explicitly includes the spatial distribution of individuals in a plant community.Several two-species models for plants in patchy environments are studied to examine the community-level consequences of spatial heterogeneity in the physical environment. The results fall into two classes. First, community structure is in part determined by a relation between patch size and mean seed dispersal distance. Specifically, coexistence is, in some cases, possible only if patches are sufficiently larger than the mean dispersal distance. Second, community structure is also affected by relations between patch size and the maximum distance over which two plants interact (termed the neighborhood radius). In some cases, coexistence is possible only if patch size is sufficiently larger than the neighborhood radius. In others, the species coexist only if patch size is sufficiently smaller than the neighborhood radius. In still other cases, coexistence is possible only if patch sizes are within critical bounds, where the sizes of the critical bounds are in units of the neighborhood radius. All results involving relations between the neighborhood radius and patch size are direct consequences of the sedentary nature of plants and the fact that individual plants interact primarily with nearby plants.