Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus</Emphasis> spp. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus</Emphasis> spp. in Worcester,United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m³) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.     

A predictive study of cupressaceae pollen season onset, severity, maximum value and maximum value date

In this paper Cupressaceae pollen season onset, severity, maximum value and maximum value date, have been studied for 15 consecutive years (1982–1996). The data set was obtained using a Hirst spore-trap (Burkard Manufacturing). In order to determine the influence of the previous months’ meteorological variables on Cupressaceae season’s parameters, the sums of maximum, average and minimum temperatures, and total rainfall for the months of October, November and December were used as independent variables in predictive formulae built by multiple regression analyses. The variance explained percentage by regression analyses varied between 60 and 87%. Total rainfall in the months prior to anthesis and temperature (particularly minimum temperature) are important factors to consider in forecasting models of Cupressaceae pollen season parameters, but meteorological conditions at the time of pollen production are also important and can modify the pre-established potential of pollination.     

The role of temperature in the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in southwestern Spain

Temperature is one of the main factors affecting the flowering of Mediterranean trees. In the case of Olea europaea L., a low-temperature period prior to bud development is essential to interrupt dormancy. After that, and once a base temperature is reached, the plant accumulates heat until flowering starts. Different methods of obtaining the best-forecast model for the onset date of the O. europaea pollen season, using temperature as the predictive parameter, are proposed in this paper. An 18-year pollen and climatic data series (1982–1999) from Cordoba (Spain) was used to perform the study. First a multiple-regression analysis using 15-day average temperatures from the period prior to flowering time was tested. Second, three heat-summation methods were used, determining the the quantities heat units (HU): accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a threshold, growing degree-days (GDD): proposed by Snyder [J Agric Meteorol 35:353–358 (1985)] as a measure of physiological time, and accumulated maximum temperature. In the first two, the optimum base temperature selected for heat accumulation was 12.5°C. The multiple-regression equation for 1999 gives a 7-day delay from the observed date. The most accurate results were obtained with the GDD method, with a difference of only 4.7 days between predicted and observed dates. The average heat accumulation expressed as GDD was 209.9°C days. The HU method also gives good results, with no significant statistical differences between predictions and observations. Received: 18 April 2000 / Revised: 14 September 2000 / Accepted: 19 September 2000     

Global warming and the earlier start of the Japanese-cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) pollen season in Toyama, Japan

Atmospheric pollen surveys were conducted in Toyama City, Japan over a 21-year period (1983–2003). Airborne pollen was collected by two methods, the gravimetric method and the volumetric method. The gravimetric method indicated that the start of the Cryptomeria japonica pollen season, as indicated by pollen dispersion, has advanced from day 73 (from January 1) in 1983 to day 47 in 2003. Measurements taken using the volumetric method confirmed this trend. There was a significant correlation between the start dates obtained by both methods. Meteorological data indicated that the most noticeable elevation in temperature during the experimental period occurred in February – an increase of 2.1°C. Significant correlations existed between the mean temperatures and the start dates of the pollen season. These results support the steadily increasing number of reports indicating a global warming trend. The temperature change in February in affecting the start dates of the C. japonica pollen season is particularly relevant in the context of human health. Further studies will be needed to clarify the effects of the global warming trend on the pollen season and human health in more detail.     

Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change

Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5°C and 12.5°C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the models accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olives flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.     

Flowering phenology and airborne pollen grains of chosen tree taxa in Rzeszów (SE Poland)

The aim of the study was to compare the courseof flowering and the occurrence of Alnus,Corylus and Betula pollen grains inthe air in 1999–2001. In 2000 and 2001 birchesflowered in a typical way – the floweringperiod was short and intense and that periodhad the highest concentration of pollen. Bothyears had no rainfall then and the temperaturewas high, which caused intense flowering ofbirches over a large area. In 1999 and 2000most of the Alnus and Coryluspollen was recorded at the end or after theirflowering period. At that time the weather wasunstable (as is usual in February and March).Pollen must have been transported fromelsewhere. Wind analysis showed that the mainsources of Corylus pollen must have beenin the south, and of Alnus in the southand west. In the southern margin of Poland thevegetative period begins later due to a colderclimate.     

Risk of pollen allergy in Nerja (southern Spain): a pollen calendar

An aeropalynological study was carried out in the atmosphere of the city of Nerja (southern Spain) during a period of 4 years (2000–2003), using a Hirst type volumetric pollen trap. An annual pollen index of 59,750 grains, on average, was obtained with 80–85% of the total pollen recorded from February to May, with Pinus, Olea, Urticaceae, Cupressaceae, Quercus and Poaceae being the principal pollen producers in abundance order. A total of 29 pollen types that reached a 10-day mean equal to or greater than 1 grain of pollen per m³ of air is reflected in a pollen calendar. The results were compared with those obtained for nearby localities and a correlation analysis was made between the daily fluctuations of the main pollen types and total pollen, and meteorological parameters (temperature, rainfall and hours of sun). The daily, monthly and annual values reached by the most important pollen types from an allergenic point of view (Olea, Urticaceae and Poaceae) confirms Nerja as a high-risk locality for the residents and the numerous tourists who visit the area.     

Airborne olive pollen in Vigo (Northwest Spain): a survey to forecast the onset and daily concentrations of the pollen season

Temperature is one of the main factors affecting the start of flowering in tree species that flower at the beginning of spring. Knowledge of the chilling and heat needs required by plants to overcome the period of dormancy enables us to determine the onset of pollination, which is of great importance to allergy sufferers. This study attempted to obtain behaviour models with a view to determining both the onset of the olive pollen season and daily pollen concentrations during the pollination period in Vigo. Monitoring was carried out using a Lanzoni VPPS 2000 pollen trap, from 1995 to 2002 inclusive.

Olea pollen is mainly detected during the spring, principally in May. Given the geographical location, the very limited presence of this tree in the study area and the low Olea pollen concentrations detected in northern Spain as a whole, the values recorded here in the atmosphere of Vigo are particularly striking. A strong correlation was observed between total quantity olive pollen collected over the season and rainfall recorded during the second fortnight in February. According to the proposed model, an average of 680 Chilling Hours (CH) are necessary to overcome the chill period and break the state of bud dormancy, and 481 Growth Degree Days (GDD) °C are needed to induce flowering. Models for predicting daily mean pollen concentrations combine temperature and the previous days' pollen concentrations as predictor variables to provide a high level of prediction.     

Influence of meteorological parameters on Olea flowering date and airborne pollen concentration in four regions of Portugal

For calculating the total annual Olea pollen concentration, the onset of the main pollen season and the peak pollen concentration dates, using data from 1998 to 2004, predictive models were developed using multiple regression analysis. Four Portuguese regions were studied: Reguengos de Monsaraz, Valença do Douro, Braga and Elvas. The effect of some meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation on Olea spatial and temporal airborne pollen distribution was studied. The best correlations were found when only the pre‐peak period was used, with thermal parameters (maximum temperature) showing the highest correlation with airborne pollen distribution. Independent variables, selected by regression analysis for the predictive models, with the greatest influence on the Olea main pollen season features were accumulated number of days with rain and rainfall in the previous autumn, and temperatures (average and minimum) from January through March. The models predict 59 to 99% of the total airborne pollen concentration recorded and the initial and peak concentration dates of the main Olea pollen season.     

A comparative study of different temperature accumulation methods for predicting the start of the Quercus pollen season in Cordoba (South West Spain)

The aim of the present paper is to study the influence of air temperature on the start of Quercus pollination in Córdoba (Andalusia, Spain). Sixteen years of pollen counts were used. The start date of the pollen season in this period varied between 26^th February and 7^th April. Chilling requirements and heat accumulation were taken into account although no significant correlation between chilling hours and the start date was observed. Five different predictive methods based on heat accumulation were compared in this paper: 1) Number of days over a threshold; 2) Heat Units (accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a base temperature); 3) Growing Degrees Days (Snyder 1988), as a measure of physiological growing time; 4) Accumulated maximum temperatures; and 5) Mean maximum temperature. Results indicated that the optimum base temperature for heat accumulation was 11 C^o. This threshold was used in the first three methods mentioned above. Good statistical results were obtained with the five methods, yielding high levels of explanation (p～99%). Nevertheless, the most accurate method appeared to be the Growing Degree Days (GDD^o) method, which indicated that a mean of 127.3 GDD^o must be accumulated from the end of the chilling period up to the beginning of the Quercus pollen season in Córdoba (South West Spain). Results were tested for predicting start dates in 1999 and 2000. The predicted dates were only one day after the actual dates.     

Non-native <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia</Emphasis> pollen in the atmosphere of Rzeszów (SE Poland); evaluation of the effect of weather conditions on daily concentrations and starting dates of the pollen season

The investigated problem was whether and to what an extent the elements of weather conditions were associated with changes in the concentration of Ambrosia pollen in air. The study was carried out in the years 1997–2004 using the volumetric method. Ragweed did not occur in the flora of the town of Rzeszów and its vicinity, but every year its pollen occurred at concentrations considerably exceeding the threshold values for the allergic response. The pollen seasons usually began from near the end of August to the first part of September. The values of daily concentrations varied greatly: days without pollen grains being frequently noted while single grains occurred long before and after the season. The effect of the elements of weather on changes in the concentration of pollen in the air was slight. Taking into account all meteorological parameters, it can be stated that an increase in the number of pollen grains is connected with increased temperature and higher wind speeds, but negatively correlated with humidity and rainfall. These relationships can usually be explained by the effects of the type of weather taking place over the wider region. The analysis of the results showed that pollen was probably transported from distant regions. The mean angle at which the greatest pollen concentrations were recorded corresponded to the SE wind direction. The analysis of synoptic phenomena during the pollen season confirms the thesis about the long-distance transport from the south, southeast and southwest. A close dependence was also found between the starting date of the season and the sum of maximum temperatures and the sum of differences between the maximum and minimum temperatures.     

Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.     

Aerobiological study of Fagaceae pollen in the middle-west of Spain

The concentration of airborne Fagaceae pollen in Salamanca and the correlations with some meteorological parameters have been examined. Castanea and Quercus pollen grains were collected from 1998 to 2004 using a Burkard spore trap. No pollen grains of Fagus were found. The main pollen season took place in April and May for Quercus and in June and July for Castanea. Yearly variations on these dates could be related to the influence of meteorological factors such as rainfall, temperature, or dominant winds. The highest values appeared in the year 2004 for both taxa. The Fagaceae airborne content was mainly due to Quercus pollen, Castanea having a scarce pollen content in the city of Salamanca. The highest counts of Fagaceae pollen grains were found from mid May to early June due to the pollen behavior of oaks. The cumulative counts varied over the years, with a mean value of 2,384 pollen grains, a highest total of 6,036 in 2004 and a lowest total of 954 in 2001. No cyclic variations were observed. Daily pollen concentrations presented positive correlation with temperature, negative with relative humidity and slightly negative with rainfall using Spearman's correlation coefficients, only in the case of Castanea, because the particular hourly distribution of rainfall during the spring might affect Quercus airborne pollen.     

The effect of air temperature on the starting dates of theUlmus, Platanus andOlea pollen seasons in the SE Iberian Peninsula

A study is made of the effect of air temperature on the start of the pollen seasons of three tree species—Ulmus, Platanus andOlea—in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula. These initial results are based on an aerobiological analysis performed over a 4-year period in the city of Granada, Spain. Sampling was carried out with a Burkard spore trap. The main aim of the present study was to use regression analysis to identify the preseasonal date when these species start to accumulate heat in their floral buds, enabling models to be created that indicate the onset of the pollen season for these taxa. ForUlmus there was no significant correlation between the onset of pollination and the mean temperature during the preceding period, whereasPlatanus presented a significant correlation with mean temperature during the month of January, andOlea with mean temperature during the second fortnight in February and the month of March. ForUlmus, the start of the pollen season ranged between 30 January and 8 February; forPlatanus, between 13 and 17 March; and forOlea, between 20 April and 13 May. The accumulated temperature needed to induce the onset of flowering ranged between 121 and 256°C forUlmus, with values of 428–607°C and 656–881°C forPlatanus andOlea, respectively.     

Pollen dispersal by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Artemisia tridentata</Emphasis> (Asteraceae)

While the biophysics of anemophilous pollen dispersal is understood in principle, empirical studies for testing such principles are rare, particularly in native ecosystems. This paper describes mechanisms underlying the dispersal of Artemisia pollen in a Wyoming sagebrush steppe. The relationships between meteorological variables and pollen flux were defined during the 1999 Artemisia flowering season, and detailed processes at the individual plant level were experimentally tested in the field in 2000. Results indicated that Artemisia pollen presentation is continuous but with early morning maxima. Atmospheric pollen concentrations and potential dispersal rates are controlled at diurnal time scales by individual flower development together with characteristic changes in temperature/humidity and wind speeds, at multi-day scales by frontal weather patterns, and at week-long scales by flowering phenology.     

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ∼10³ km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002–2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.     

An analysis of relationships among plant community phenology and seasonal metrics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the northern part of the monsoon region of China

This study focuses on relationships between the phenological growing season of plant communities and the seasonal metrics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at sample stations and pixels overlying them, and explores the procedure for determining the growing season of terrestrial vegetation at the regional scale, using threshold NDVI values obtained by surface–satellite analysis at individual stations/pixels. The cumulative frequency of phenophases has been calculated for each plant community and each year in order to determine the growing season at the three sample stations from 1982 to 1993. The precise thresholds were arbitrarily set as the dates on which the phenological cumulative frequency reached 5% and 10% (for the beginning) and 90% and 95% (for the end). The beginning and end dates of the growing season were then applied each year as time thresholds, to determine the corresponding 10-day peak greenness values from NDVI curves for 8-km² pixels overlying the phenological stations. According to a trend analysis, a lengthening of the growing seasons and an increase of the integrated growing season NDVI have been detected in the central part of the research region. The correlation between the beginning dates of the growing season and the corresponding threshold NDVI values is very low, which indicates that the satellite-sensor-derived greenness is independent of the beginning time of the growing season of local plant communities. Other than in spring, the correlation between the end dates of the growing season and the corresponding threshold NDVI values is highly significant. The negative correlation shows that the earlier the growing season terminates, the larger the corresponding threshold NDVI value, and vice versa. In order to estimate the beginning and end dates of the growing season using the threshold NDVI values at sites without phenological data from 1982 to 1993, we calculated the spatial correlation coefficients between NDVI time-series at each sample station and other contiguous sites year by year. The results provide the spatial extrapolation area of the growing season for each sample station. Thus, we can use the threshold NDVI value obtained at one sample station/pixel for a year to determine the growing season at the extrapolation sites with a similar vegetation type for the same year. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 19 June 2001 / Accepted: 19 June 2001     

Aeropalynologic analysis of La Plata City (Argentina) during a 3-year period

A continuous aeropalynologic survey of the atmosphere of La Plata was carried out between July 1998 and June 2001 in order to study flowering development from winter to summer using a Lanzoni volumetric spore trap. The total pollen spectrum was represented by 79 pollen types. Between 10 and 12 pollen types showed a relative concentration of more than 1% of the annual total. Airborne pollen was mainly represented by Platanus, Fraxinus, Cupressaceae, Poaceae, Urticaceae, Cyperaceae, Myrtaceae, Celtis, Casuarina and Morus during the 3-year period. Acer and Ambrosia pollen types were only dominant in the first 2 years. Maximum absolute concentrations were recorded in the the July 1998–June 1999 period, and the minimum concentrations were recorded in the July 2000–June 2001 period. The contribution of the arboreal pollen grains was higher than 68% relative to the annual total for each year. Two periods of maximum pollen emissions were found for each year: pollen from aboreal taxa predominated from July to October, and pollen from herbaceous taxa predominated from November to March. There was very little pollen in the atmosphere between April and June. The maximum arboreal and herbaceous pollen emissions were recorded during hours of daylight: at 10:00 and 14:00 hours.     

The influence of ambient temperature on the abundance of Poaceae pollen

The sampling of pollen concentrations over six seasons in north London has revealed the importance of temperature in influencing the start, severity, daily and diurnal variation of Poaceae pollen seasons. Using accumulated degree days above 6°C and rainfall amount as predictors, models have been developed which account for 96% of the variation in the starting date and 91% of the variation in the severity of the Poaceae pollen season. Maximum daily temperature is an important influence on the daily pollen count although this relationship is not linear and maximum daily temperatures within the range 21.1–25°C are associated with the highest daily pollen concentrations. Likewise, when the two-hourly variation of pollen concentration is examined, temperatures within 2–4.9°C above the normal diurnal range, rather than in excess of 5.0°C, are found to be associated with the highest two-hourly concentrations. Occasional night-time maxima of pollen concentration have also been recorded and these are examined in relation to the possibility of temperature inversions, although few conclusive results have emerged.