Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.     

基于SRP概念模型的沂蒙山区生态环境脆弱性评价

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度(SRP)概念模型,选取景观多样性指数、土壤侵蚀、高程等13个评价指标,在GIS环境下,结合空间主成分分析法和层次分析法,对沂蒙山区生态环境脆弱性进行评价,并根据生态环境脆弱性指数(EVI)值,将研究区生态环境脆弱度分为5级:微度脆弱(<1.8)、轻度脆弱(1.8～2.8)、中度脆弱(2.8～3.5)、重度脆弱(3.5～4.0)和极度脆弱(>4.0).结果表明:沂蒙山区生态环境脆弱性以中度脆弱性为主,其中,微度、轻度、中度、重度和极度脆弱区面积分别占研究区总面积的6.1%、33.8%、43.3%、15.9%和0.9%,重度和极度脆弱区主要集中在地形较复杂的山地丘陵区或人类活动强度较大的丘陵和平原过渡交错带.     

高寒生态系统脆弱性及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应

了解陆地生态系统的脆弱性和基本机制是适应和减轻全球气候变化影响的决策基础。生态系统的脆弱性可以通过生产力对气候变化的敏感性和适应性进行量化。采用1982-2018年青海省境内基于遥感的现实净初级生产力（NPP_R）和气候驱动的潜在净初级生产力（NPP_C）,量化了高寒生态系统的敏感性（Sensitivity）、适应性（Adaptability）和脆弱性（Vulnerability）。然后探讨了生态系统脆弱性的时空变化,并分别从人类活动和气候变化的影响方面分析了其基本机制。结果表明：（1）基于NPP_R和NPP_C的生态系统脆弱性在空间上呈现出中度脆弱的模式,脆弱性从东南向西北由不脆弱依次递增到极度脆弱等级。（2）耕地的脆弱性较低,基于NPP_R和NPP_C的指数分别为-1.31和-0.93,这是由于其适应水平较高而敏感性较低;森林次之,指数为-1.18（NPP_R）和-1.06（NPP_C）;草原的指数为-0.17（NPP_R）和-0.17（NPP_C）;而荒漠的脆弱性较高,指数为0.77（NPP_R）和0.78（NPP_C）,这是由于其敏感性较高,适应性较低。（3）基于NPP_R的高寒草地的脆弱性有两个温度阈值（-2.2±0.8）℃和（5.5±0.8）℃,一个降水阈值（387±45.6）mm,两个干旱指数阈值为（14.2±20.2）和（78.2±20.2）。而基于NPP_C的脆弱性也发现了同样的阈值,并且数值相似。阈值表明最佳气候条件下,生态系统将具有较高的适应性和较低的敏感性,即较低的脆弱性。但如果气温较低或较高,或者降水较低,生态系统的脆弱性将会更高。（4）人类活动对东部地区生态系统的脆弱性产生了强烈的影响,但就整个青海省的生态系统而言,这些影响在区域平均水平上较小。这项研究表明,在高寒脆弱的生态系统中,气候条件决定了脆弱性在空间上的分布情况,这应该被视为生态保护决策的理论基础。此外,本研究发现的阈值将为生态系统生态学提供一个案例研究,并应在世界各地的脆弱生态系统中广泛探索。     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Composite Subsidence Vulnerability Assessment Based on an Index Model and Index Decomposition Method

The threat of damage to buildings and other infrastructures resulting from land subsidence associated with groundwater pumping in urbanized areas is an ongoing problem requiring assessment. An important goal of subsidence vulnerability assessment is to construct a composite subsidence vulnerability index (SVI) that is represented by a set of indicators that focuses on four different thematic factors: physical, social, economic, and environmental vulnerability. These indicators are evaluated on the basis of indicator selection principles and then weighted by their contribution rate to the overall index. The weights reflect different measures assigned to the township-specific conditions. A complete and composite subsidence vulnerability assessment is developed in which future vulnerability management decision-making processes can be readily made. The vulnerability assessment includes not only the construction of the SVI, which involves selecting, assigning value to, weighting, and aggregating the vulnerability indicators, but also the presentation of the SVI decomposition. Research results demonstrate that a composite subsidence vulnerability assessment method can be made by first constructing and then decomposition-presenting the overall SVI. This allows for the relative comparison of subsidence vulnerability and the identification of the main vulnerable indicators; thus providing subsidence risk, which represents an important step toward vulnerability management of water resources.     

未来气候变化下两种红景天植物的脆弱性

气候变化对全球的物种多样性有深远影响, 尤其是对高山物种多样性。研究未来气候变化下物种的灭绝风险对生物多样性保护具有重要的意义。本文针对青藏高原的2种重要药用植物大花红景天(Rhodiola crenulata)和菊叶红景天(R. chrysanthemifolia), 利用气候生态位因子分析法研究了它们对气候变化的敏感性、暴露性和脆弱性, 讨论了2种“共享社会经济途径” (SSP2-45和SSP5-85)情景下的未来气候对这2个物种脆弱性的影响。同时计算了2种红景天的气候生态位的边缘性和特化性, 通过主成分分析法对其气候生态位进行了二维可视化, 并分析了它们的气候变化脆弱性与气候生态位之间的关系。结果表明, 未来气候变化情景下2种红景天在其分布区都显示出西部脆弱性高而东部脆弱性低的特征, 而脆弱性都表现为较低的横断山脉地区将成为其未来气候避难所。2种红景天在SSP5-85气候情景下的脆弱性高于SSP2-45, 资源和能源密集型社会经济途径(即SSP5-85)将会增大物种的灭绝风险。此外, 被《中国物种红色名录》评估为无危的菊叶红景天的气候变化脆弱性反而大于被评估为濒危的大花红景天。生态位因子分析结果表明大花红景天的生态位边缘性和特化性都低于菊叶红景天, 研究推断同地区不同物种的气候变化脆弱性主要由物种的气候生态位决定。     

Fleshing Out Vulnerability

In the literature on medical ethics, it is generally admitted that vulnerable persons or groups deserve special attention, care or protection. One can define vulnerable persons as those having a greater likelihood of being wronged – that is, of being denied adequate satisfaction of certain legitimate claims. The conjunction of these two points entails what we call the Special Protection Thesis. It asserts that persons with a greater likelihood of being denied adequate satisfaction of their legitimate claims deserve special attention, care or protection. Such a thesis remains vague, however, as long as we do not know what legitimate claims are. This article aims at dispelling this vagueness by exploring what claims we have in relation to health care – thus fleshing out a claim‐based conception of vulnerability. We argue that the Special Protection Thesis must be enriched as follows: If individual or group X has a greater likelihood of being denied adequate satisfaction of some of their legitimate claims to (i) physical integrity, (ii) autonomy, (iii) freedom, (iv) social provision, (v) impartial quality of government, (vi) social bases of self‐respect or (vii) communal belonging, then X deserves special attention, care or protection. With this improved understanding of vulnerability, vulnerability talk in healthcare ethics can escape vagueness and serve as an adequate basis for practice.     

生态工业园共生网络的脆弱性

工业生态系统的稳定可持续运行是生态工业园区实现环境效益、经济效益和社会效益的重要保障,对生态工业共生网络脆弱性分析是工业生态学领域值得探讨的重要问题。运用复杂网络理论,从网络拓扑结构出发,论证该工业园具有小世界性和无标度性,为网络脆弱性分析奠定基础;通过攻击负载最大节点,利用网络效率和最大连通子图对网络的脆弱性进行分析,从而衡量节点失效对整个网络造成的破坏性。指出复杂网络在生态工业园共生网络中进一步研究的方向。     

Vulnerability of seamount fish to fishing: fuzzy analysis of life‐history attributes

Despite rather broad definitions, global analysis showed that seamount fishes, particularly seamount‐aggregating fishes, had higher intrinsic vulnerability than other groups of fishes. The pattern was similar when considering only commercially exploited species. Biological characteristics leading to greater vulnerability included a longer life span, later sexual maturation, slower growth and lower natural mortality. The results supported the contention that seamount fishes, especially those that aggregate on seamounts, are highly vulnerable to exploitation and that fishing on seamounts may not be sustainable at current levels and with current methods. A number of seamount populations have already been depleted; more depletion, extirpations, and even species extinctions may follow if fishing on seamounts is not reduced.     

Vulnerability of sea turtle nesting grounds to climate change

Given the potential vulnerability of sea turtles to climate change, a growing number of studies are predicting how various climatic processes will affect their nesting grounds. However, these studies are limited by scale, because they predict how a single climatic process will affect sea turtles but processes are likely to occur simultaneously and cause cumulative effects. This study addresses the need for a structured approach to investigate how multiple climatic processes may affect a turtle population. Here, we use a vulnerability assessment framework to assess the cumulative impact of various climatic processes on the nesting grounds used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle population. Further, we manipulate the variables from this framework to allow users to investigate how mitigating different climatic processes individually or simultaneously can influence the vulnerability of the nesting grounds. Our assessment indicates that nesting grounds closer to the equator, such as Bramble Cay and Milman Island, are the most vulnerable to climate change. In the short‐term (by 2030), sea level rise will cause the most impact on the nesting grounds used by the nGBR green turtle population. However, in the longer term, by 2070 sand temperatures will reach levels above the upper transient range and the upper thermal threshold and cause relatively more impact on the nGBR green turtle population. Thus, in the long term, a reduction of impacts from sea‐level rise may not be sufficient, as rookeries will start to experience high vulnerability values from increased temperature. Thus, in the long term, reducing the threats from increased temperature may provide a greater return in conservation investment than mitigating the impacts from other climatic processes. Indeed, our results indicate that if the impacts from increased temperature are mitigated, the vulnerability values of almost all rookeries will be reduced to low levels.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of Plant Protection Products: A Review

Plant protection products (PPPs) pose a serious dilemma; although their application contributes to the fight against poverty and diseases, at the same time these agrochemicals represent a significant public health threat. As part of Ireland's commitment to the Water Framework Directive (WFD), the country's groundwater sources and resources have to be properly monitored and specific standards in groundwater quality need to be met. Vulnerability assessment is a methodology that evaluates the likelihood of an adverse event occurring and this information can be useful for pollution prevention and decision-making purposes. The objective of this article is to review and compare the most important vulnerability assessment methods and tools that have been used in catchment/regional scale studies. While the approach used is largely dependent on available data, user requirements, and local conditions, the evaluation showed that the COP and PI index-based methods and the MACRO and PRZM process-based methods represent the most advanced tools currently available for large-scale applications. Also discussed is the importance of statistical methods for uncertainty analysis and their usefulness in reducing the data requirements of the index and process-based methods.     

Vulnerability and Place: Flat Land and Uneven Risk in New Orleans

Vulnerability to extreme events is shaped by both physical and social factors, and Hurricane Katrina brutally exposed that fact in New Orleans. Historically, low-income Irish and Italian populations suffered when floods washed over the Crescent City. Modifications in the structural defenses to floods and shifting demographics since 1950 altered the geography of vulnerability. In recent years, both blacks and whites have occupied below-sea-level sites, exposing both to flood risks, although the racial composition of the city has undergone a near reversal. Additionally, low-income residents, found disproportionately within the African American population, suffered dual vulnerability. Not only did many live in low-lying areas but evacuation plans relied on private automobiles that left many poor residents to endure the impact of the hurricane-induced flooding.     

A Talent for Life: Reflections on Human Vulnerability and Resilience

This article explores the limitations of the dominant psychological trauma model. Drawing on the experiences and the aftermaths of chronic ‘states of emergency ‘ among shantytown families in rural Northeast Brazil, among hunted street kids in urban Brazil, and among revolutionaries and warriors of different political stripes following the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, I identify several features of human resilience, the sources of strength, toughness, hardiness, and relative immunity from personal and psychological collapse that we have come to associate with exposure to a variety of human calamities. We need to rethink our notions of trauma, violence and its sequalae.     

Vulnerability of myelin development of the chick to the herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic butyl ester

Fertilized hens' eggs were treated externally with 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic butyl ester (2,4-D b.e.) (3.1 mg/egg) immediately before starting incubation, and after different times of incubation (5, 10 and 15 days). Controls were treated externally with ether. Hatchability studies demonstrated that fetotoxic effects of 2,4-D b. e. were similar on the 0, 5 and 10 incubation day, but the 15 Day Group improved the hatching percentage. One day after hatching, chicks were decapitated, and CNS tissue was dissected. Myelin markers, as cerebrosides and CNP, were determined in cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem and spinal cord of the four groups. They were reduced in cerebrum and brain stem of the 0, 5 and 10 Day Groups, but in the 15 Day Group they were in normal levels. Cerebellum presented normal myelin marker contents in each group studied, while spinal cord only presented decreased marker contents in the 5 Day Group. UDP galactose-ceramide galactosyl transferase (EC 2.4.1.45) activity was reduced in whole brain of chicks born from eggs treated preincubation. The results show the importance of time drug application and suggest that the vulnerable period in CNS development includes proliferation and development of myelin forming cells. Among CNS regions, cerebrum and brain stem seem to be the most vulnerable to the toxic action of 2,4-D b.e. in the chick.     

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run‐off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017–2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near‐term, relative to current state, followed by climate‐driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business‐as‐usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate‐driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR‐wide reef performance will decline 27%–74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.     

农业生态系统能流分析方法的探讨

我们在北京市房山区窦店村从事“京郊平原以生态为中心的农业综合发展研究”课题的过程中,感到目前关于农业生态系统能流的计算方法难以准确揭示该村农业进程的内在规律。于是,对能流的计算方法进行了反复思考和探索,提出的方案不但简化了农业生态系统能流的计算与分析,而且有助于认识窦店村农业现代化的进程,准确地评价该村农业生态系统,并正确地指导农业生产。     

Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species

Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios. Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos. Methods We used LPJ‐GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO₂] to 2050 according to two SpecialReport on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years. Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale. Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates.     

Vulnerability and reliable signaling in conflicts between hermit crabs

When interacting organisms have opposing genetic interests,the integrity of communication systems may be undermined. Forsignaling in such conflict circumstances to remain evolutionarilystable, cheaters must be handicapped. Agonistic threat signals,however, are not always constrained or costly to produce, andyet these signals occur in the severest of conflicts where strongincentives exist for dishonesty. A leading hypothesis for howreliability is stabilized under these conditions is that signalingentails a risk, making signalers vulnerable to injury. HereI experimentally alter vulnerability to show how risk can modifyorganisms' willingness to escalate disputes, affecting the useof threat signals. The vulnerability to injury of hermit crabs(Pagurus bernhardus) was manipulated by varying the exposureof their soft uncalcified abdomens. When faced with potentiallydamaging conspecific attacks, more vulnerable crabs were conflictaverse, showing reluctance to claim ownership over contestablefood, frequently retreating from threats, and refraining fromthreatening others. The risk an organism can bear in escalatedconflict can thus mediate its agonistic behavior and usage ofthreats. Postural nuances can consequently provide reliableinformation about aggressive intentions despite minimal productioncosts and opposing interests between communication parties.