Potential fragmentation and loss of thermal habitats for charrs in the Japanese archipelago due to climatic warming

1. The upper thermal limits of the present distributions of two charr species, Dolly Varden, Salvelinus malma , and white-spotted charr, S. leucomaenis , in streams of the Japanese archipelago were examined using groundwater temperature as an index of thermal condition. The lower limits of the altitudinal distributions of Dolly Varden and white-spotted charr were delineated, respectively, by 8 and 16 °C groundwater isotherms.
2. The potential impact of future climatic warming on the geographical distribution, habitat extent and population fragmentation of each species was predicted at both the full archipelago and individual catchment levels.
3. For Dolly Varden, analysis at the full archipelago level indicated a loss of 27.6, 67.2, 79.6 and 89.6% of the current geographical range, respectively, for a 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C increase in mean annual air temperature. The present distribution area of white-spotted charr would likewise reduce by 4.1, 20.5, 33.8 and 45.6%, respectively.
4. Based on the analyses of three individual catchments, one for Dolly Varden and two for white-spotted charr, the lower habitat boundaries for the two charr species could be expected to rise increasingly to higher elevations in each catchment as warming proceeded. As a consequence, there would be large reductions in mean habitat area, with increasing habitat fragmentation followed by localized extinctions of the two species.     

Potential extinction debt due to habitat loss and fragmentation in subalpine moorland ecosystems

Habitat loss and fragmentation would often induce delayed extinction, referred to as extinction debt. Understanding potential extinction debts would allow us to reduce future extinction risk by restoring habitats or implementing conservation actions. Although growing empirical evidence has predicted extinction debts in various ecosystems exposed to direct human disturbances, potential extinction debts in natural ecosystems with minimal direct human disturbance are little studied. Ongoing climate change may cause habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in natural ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change, potentially leading to future local extinctions. Recent climate change would lead to extended growing season caused by earlier snowmelt in spring, resulting in expansion of shrubby species and thereby habitat loss and fragmentation of mountainous moorlands. We examined the potential extinction debts of species diversity and functional diversity (FD; trait variation or multivariate trait differences within a community) in subalpine moorland ecosystems subjected to few direct human disturbances. Plant species richness for all species and for moorland specialists were primarily explained by the past kernel density of focal moorlands (a proxy for spatial clustering of moorlands around them) but not the past area of the focal moorlands, suggesting potential extinction debt in subalpine moorland ecosystems. The higher kernel density of the focal moorland in the past indicates that it was originally surrounded by more neighborhood moorlands and/or had been locally highly fragmented. Patterns in current plant species richness have been shaped by the historical spatial configuration of moorlands, which have disappeared over time. In contrast, we found no significant relationships between the FD and historical and current landscape variables depicting each moorland. The prevalence of trait convergence might result in a less sensitive response of FD to habitat loss and fragmentation compared to that of species richness. Our finding has an important implication that climate change induced by human activities may threaten biodiversity in natural ecosystems through habitat loss and fragmentation.

     

Modelling effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming

The ability of trees to migrate in response to climatic warming was simulated under various conditions of habitat availability. The model uses Holocene tree migration rates to approximate maximum migration rates in a forested landscape. Habitat availability and local population size was varied systematically under two dispersal and colonization models. These dispersal models varied in the likelihood of long-distance dispersal events. The first model used a negative exponential function that severely limited the probability of long-distance dispersal. The results of this model indicate that migration rate could decline an order of magnitude where the habitat availability is reduced from 80 to 20% of the matrix. The second model, using an inverse power function, carried a higher probability of long-distance dispersal events. The results from this model predict relatively small declines in migration rates when habitat availability is reduced to 50% of the simulation matrix. Below 50% habitat availability, mean migration rate was similar to the negative exponential model. These results predict a failure of many trees to respond to future climatic change through range expansion.     

Post-glacial range fragmentation is responsible for the current distribution of Potentilla matsumurae Th. Wolf (Rosaceae) in the Japanese archipelago

Aim We aimed to elucidate how the current geographic distribution of alpine plants in the Japanese archipelago was shaped during Quaternary climatic oscillations, using Potentilla matsumurae as a case study. According to previous phylogeographic studies, post‐glacial range fragmentation (vicariance scenario) and stepwise migration (dispersal scenario) are both possible. We thus aimed to assess which scenario is more probable for the distribution changes of alpine plants in the Japanese archipelago. Location The alpine zone in the Japanese archipelago. Methods Using amplified fragment length polymorphism we determined the genotype of 161 individuals of P. matsumurae from 22 populations. Relationships among individuals and populations were examined using principal coordinates analysis and a neighbour‐joining (NJ) tree, respectively. To examine the genetic population structure, we performed analysis of molecular variance (amova ) and structure analysis. Results Differentiation between central Honshu and northern Japan was not very strong based on the principal coordinates analysis among individuals, the NJ tree of populations (59% bootstrap support), or amova (12% of genetic variation). Moreover, structure analysis did not detect clear geographic differentiation across populations. Although the populations in central Honshu were structured geographically (Mantel test: r = 0.45, P < 0.005; NJ tree), those in northern Japan did not exhibit geographic structure regardless of geographic distance (Mantel test: r = 0.26, P = 0.03; NJ tree). Population relationships in the NJ tree did not always reflect the geographic location. Main conclusions The current geographic structure of P. matsumurae could not be explained by stepwise migration. This suggests that a single continuous distribution during the last glacial period was later fragmented, perhaps by recovering forest, during the post‐glacial period, resulting in the current distribution and phylogeographic structure of P. matsumurae. Our data support the vicariance scenario.     

Upper thermal tolerance plasticity in tropical amphibian species from contrasting habitats: Implications for warming impact prediction

Tropical ectothermic species are currently depicted as more vulnerable to increasing temperatures because of the proximity between their upper thermal limits and environmental temperatures. Yet, the acclimatory capacity of thermal limits has rarely been measured in tropical species, even though they are generally predicted to be smaller than in temperate species. We compared critical thermal maximum (CT_max) and warming tolerance (WT: the difference between CT_max and maximum temperature, T_max), as well as CT_max acclimatory capacity of toad species from the Atlantic forest (AF) and the Brazilian Caatinga (CAA), a semi-arid habitat with high temperatures. Acclimation temperatures represented the mean temperatures of AF and CAA habitats, making estimates of CT_max and WT more ecologically realistic. CAA species mean CT_max was higher compared to AF species in both acclimation treatments. Clutches within species, as well as between AF and CAA species, differed in CT_max plasticity and we discuss the potential biological meaning of these findings. We did not find a trade-off between absolute CT_max and CT_max plasticity, indicating that species can have both high CT_max and high CT_max plasticity. Although CT_max was highly correlated to T_max, CT_max plasticity was not related to T_max or T_max coefficients of variation. CAA species mean WT was lower than for AF species, but still very high for all species, diverging from other studies with tropical species. This might be partially related to over-estimation of vulnerability due to under-appreciation of realistic acclimation treatments in CT_max estimation. Thus, some tropical species might not be as vulnerable to warming as previously predicted if CT_max is considered as a shifting population parameter.     

Eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities

Eco-evolutionary dynamics can mediate species and community responses to habitat warming and fragmentation, two of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The eco-evolutionary consequences of warming and fragmentation are typically studied independently, hindering our understanding of their simultaneous impacts. Here, we provide a new perspective rooted in trade-offs among traits for understanding their eco-evolutionary consequences. On the one hand, temperature influences traits related to metabolism, such as resource acquisition and activity levels. Such traits are also likely to have trade-offs with other energetically costly traits, like antipredator defences or dispersal. On the other hand, fragmentation can influence a variety of traits (e.g. dispersal) through its effects on the spatial environment experienced by individuals, as well as properties of populations, such as genetic structure. The combined effects of warming and fragmentation on communities should thus reflect their collective impact on traits of individuals and populations, as well as trade-offs at multiple trophic levels, leading to unexpected dynamics when effects are not additive and when evolutionary responses modulate them. Here, we provide a road map to navigate this complexity. First, we review single-species responses to warming and fragmentation. Second, we focus on consumer–resource interactions, considering how eco-evolutionary dynamics can arise in response to warming, fragmentation, and their interaction. Third, we illustrate our perspective with several example scenarios in which trait trade-offs could result in significant eco-evolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we consider the possible eco-evolutionary consequences of (i) evolution in thermal performance of a species involved in a consumer–resource interaction, (ii) ecological or evolutionary changes to encounter and attack rates of consumers, and (iii) changes to top consumer body size in tri-trophic food chains. In these scenarios, we present a number of novel, sometimes counter-intuitive, potential outcomes. Some of these expectations contrast with those solely based on ecological dynamics, for example, evolutionary responses in unexpected directions for resource species or unanticipated population declines in top consumers. Finally, we identify several unanswered questions about the conditions most likely to yield strong eco-evolutionary dynamics, how better to incorporate the role of trade-offs among traits, and the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in governing responses to warming in fragmented communities.     

土壤呼吸组分对气候变暖的响应研究进展

气候变暖正在深刻地改变全球碳循环过程.土壤呼吸作为全球碳循环的重要环节,连接着植物-土壤-微生物之间的碳转移过程.土壤呼吸可分为异养呼吸和根源呼吸(根系呼吸和根际微生物呼吸)等组分.土壤呼吸各组分的发生部位与利用的有机碳源不同,其对气候变暖的响应可能存在显著差异.然而,目前的研究还不能完全实现土壤呼吸各组分的精确区分和量化,气候变暖对土壤呼吸各组分的影响及其具体机制仍存在很多悬而未决的问题,这极大地限制了人们对土壤碳循环评估的精确性以及对气候变暖背景下陆地生态系统碳收支格局变化的认识.本文系统综述了目前国内外土壤呼吸组分区分技术,分析了土壤呼吸组分区分的研究结果,并论述了土壤呼吸各组分对气候变暖的响应研究进展.提出仍需发展新的土壤呼吸组分区分技术或者改进和创新现有技术,未来的研究重点应放在精确区分野外条件下根源呼吸组分,同时开展土壤呼吸组分对多种环境因子变化的响应研究,以期更全面地认识土壤碳循环过程以及全球变化背景下陆地生态系统碳收支的变化趋势.     

Flowering phenology in the central highland of Iceland and implications for climatic warming in the Arctic

The cool and short growing season that characterizes Arctic climates puts severe constraints on life cycles and reproduction in the Arctic flora. The timing of flowering is particularly critical and may affect both breeding system and reproductive success through the heavy penalties associated with later flowering. An 11-year study of 75 species in the central highland of Iceland showed that the onset of flowering varies greatly among years. The number of species in flower by the first week of July was closely correlated with air temperature (degree days above zero) in the preceding 5 weeks, but no correlations were found with degree days in May or with total degree days in the previous growing season. Time of snowmelt, which has widely been regarded as the environmental event initiating growth and flowering in alpine and arctic tundra, only had a significant effect when two exceptionally cold and late summers were included. The species studied, most of which have a wide distribution in the Arctic, are predicted to respond quickly to warmer spring and early summer temperatures. Accelerated phenologies may alter patterns of resource allocation, have implications for pollinators and pollinator-competition, and could increase the size, species richness and intraspecific genetic diversity of the soil seed bank. Received: 15 February 1997 / Accepted: 25 October 1997     

Effects of global climatic warming on the boreal forest

On the basis of the predictions of the global climatic warming induced by anthropogenic activities, as provided by climatologists, current state of knowledge regarding possible ecological consequences of the warming on the boreal biome was discussed. A 600 to 700 km northward advance of the biome along with the warming was predicted. Such a shift could take place for half a century or so, which would be an unprecedentedly fast rate of progression. This might cause a serious disorder in species composition of the biome, particularly in the boundary regions. As to the carbon sink or source issues, considerable uncertainties and knowledge gaps existed. Elevated temperature and CO₂ levels would stimulate photosynthesis to result in an increase of CO₂ uptake, while the temperature increase would promote decomposition of organic matter especially that stored in the soils to release CO₂ to the atmosphere. Behaviors of northern peat bogs, whereca. 700 Gt of organic matter was thought to be accumulated, would seriously affect the balance. However, overall ecosystematic carbon balance was yet to be fully studied. It was realized that multifunctional approaches needed to be developed so as to integrate pieces of various information into a holistic picture. Need for international collaboration research efforts was also addressed.     

Community composition and size structure of murid rodents in relation to the biogeography of the Japanese archipelago

We investigated the geographical patterns of community composition and size structure of murid rodent assemblages in Japan. Rodent faunal composition showed three biogeograpbic zones in the studied area (Hokkaido, northern Honshu and southern Honshu), which are characterized by endemic species or genera. There was a large discrepancy between distribution patterns of murine species, which are generalist and widespread in Japan, and arvicoline species, which are more specialized and locally restricted. We also found a strong degree of nestedness of the murid rodent fauna, i.e. smaller faunas were subsets of larger ones, which is typical of relict fauna. The structure of murid rodent assemblages was studied using the size and shape of the lower incisor, in order to test for the effect of interspecific competition on community-wide patterns. We used two different approaches: one tests for regularity in the size structure of the community (Barton and David test), and the other one tests for minimum mean overlap size in the community between species (randomization procedure). There was no congruence between the results of the two tests: we did not find any case of regular size structure, whereas mean size overlaps were minimum or even zero in about half of the cases studied. Thus, the evolution of rodent communities on islands seems to be characterized by minimization of size overlaps, perhaps as a result of interspecific competition. Also, the reduction of island area, which is correlated with a decrease in species richness, is accompanied by an increase in Hutchinsonian size ratios and a decrease in the total size range of the community. These patterns may be linked to the reduced diversity of environmental resources on islands.     

Effects of fragmentation on vascular plant diversity in a Mediterranean forest archipelago

Abstract

We analysed the effects of patch size and isolation on vascular plants in Quercus cerris forest surrounding Rome (Italy). We randomly sampled 96 plots within 18 forest patches with homogeneous environmental variables; the patches ranged from 1.4 ha to 424.5 ha and were divided into four size classes. We performed the analyses at the patch level using linear regression. At the size class level, the analysis of species richness response to fragmentation (area effect) was performed with ANOVA, while the effect on community composition was analysed by means of PERMANOVA. We also investigated which species could be used as indicator species for each size class. Lastly, to evaluate the advantages of conserving several small patches as opposed to few large ones, we used a cumulative area approach ranking forest fragments. The correlation between species richness and patch area was positive, with a significant difference between the “large” and “small” size classes, while analysis on community composition showed that “large” versus “medium” and “large” versus “small” were significantly different. Nemoral species were recognised as indicators in the “large” class, and shrub and edge species in the “small” class. Our results indicate that 10 ha may be a suitable forest size threshold for planning and conservation.     

Possible spreading of toxic Alexandrium tamarense blooms on the Chukchi Sea shelf with the inflow of Pacific summer water due to climatic warming

A high abundance of resting cysts of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense was recently reported in the vast continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea in the Arctic Ocean, suggesting that the species is widespread in the shelf. Nevertheless, little is known about the occurrence of A. tamarense vegetative cells in the water column of the arctic. Sea ice reduction and the inflow of Pacific summer water (PSW) through the Bering Strait have recently increased owing to warming in the shelf. To determine the spatial and temporal distributions of A. tamarense in the Chukchi Sea shelf and their relationship to the inflow of PSW, field samplings were conducted in the Chukchi Sea and north Bering Sea shelves three times during the summer of 2013 from July to October. Vegetative cells of A. tamarense was detected in both shelves at all sampling periods with a maximum density of 3.55 × 10³ cells L⁻¹. This species was also observed at the station at 73°N, indicating the northernmost record of this species to date. The center of the A. tamarense distribution was between the north Bering and south Chukchi Sea shelf during the first collection period, and spread to the north Chukchi Sea shelf during the second and third collection periods. The species occurrences were mainly observed at stations affected by the PSW, especially Bering shelf water. Water structure of PSW was characterized by warmer surface and bottom water temperatures, and increased temperatures may have promoted the cell growth and cyst germination of A. tamarense. Therefore, it is suggested that an increase in the PSW inflow owing to warming promotes toxic A. tamarense occurrences on the Chukchi Sea shelf.     

Changes in the potential habitats of 10 dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change remains elusive in the species-rich Taiwan-Japan archipelago. We predicted potential habitats (PHs) of ten dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species by using the current and twenty potential climate change scenarios using generalised additive models. The presence/absence records of each species, extracted from vegetation database, were used as response variables. Four climatic and one spatial variables were used as explanatory variables. The results showed that the interaction terms of spatial variable, indicating historical range shifts or species interactions, restricted the distribution of all the target species as much as that by the each climatic variable. The PHs of all the target species were predicted to consistently increase, and in particular, to expand northward and upward to the cool temperate zone. However, the PHs were predicted to decrease within the range of 23.6–38.1 % in the Ryukyu Islands for Castanopsis sieboldii and Elaeocarpus japonica, respectively, and within the range of 32.4–42.3 % in Taiwan for Camellia japonica and Distylium racemosum, respectively. These findings suggest that the four species will be vulnerable at the southern range limits; however, the remaining six species will potentially increase within the PH areas in the future at all regions.     

Possible adaptive and non-adaptive radiation in three plant genera in the Japanese archipelago

The adaptive radiation of flowering plants as manifested by the floral diversity has long been considered associated with the diversity of plant–pollinator interactions, because changes in plant–pollinator interactions are hypothesized as one of the major mechanisms driving plant ecological speciation. To understand the relative contributions of various mechanisms for plant radiation, including pollinator changes, it is useful to study a plant group for which comparative study of the species life history across the whole lineage is feasible. To this end, we will focus on the plant lineages that have presumably radiated in the Japanese archipelago, namely, the genera Asimitellaria, Asarum, and Arisaema. By comparing these three genera, we will comment on the possible modes of adaptive radiation and diversification among the endemic flora of Japan.     

Predicted changes in the synchrony of larval emergence and budburst under climatic warming

Summary The impact of climatic warming on the synchrony of insect and plant phenologies was modelled in the case of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in the Scottish uplands. The emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted with a thermal time requirement model and the budburst of Sitka spruce was predicted from a previously published model (Cannell and Smith 1983) based on winter chilling and thermal time. The date of emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted to occur earlier under climatic warming but the date of budburst of Sitka spruce was not greatly changed, resulting in decreased synchrony between larval emergence and budburst. The general question of how a change of climate might affect phenological synchrony and insect abundance is discussed.     

Assemblage-level responses of Neotropical bats to forest loss and fragmentation

Habitat loss and fragmentation are the most important causes of biological diversity loss, changing the properties of the remaining environment. The Neotropical Region is one of the most affected areas due to the conversion of natural habitats into agricultural activities and deforestation. In this region, bats represent almost 50% of all mammal species, reaching the highest taxonomic and functional diversity. Bats are valuable indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem health, but their response to habitat loss and fragmentation was poorly studied in Argentina. The aim of this study was to analyze the response of bat assemblages to habitat alteration in Northwestern Argentina. The specimens were collected in eight different localities, four well-preserved and four disturbed sites of the Yungas Forests. To describe the structure of bat assemblages, rank-abundance curves, species richness and Shannon (H’) and Simpson (D’) diversity indexes were calculated. To test the assemblage variations among sites, PCA and NPMANOVA analysis were performed. After 96 sampling nights, a total of 565 bats from 23 species were captured. A great variation in the assemblage structure was registered, regardless the disturbance level of the sites. These variations were not significantly different according to statistical analysis. The results support the hypothesis that areas with moderate fragmentation can sustain a high diversity of bat species. Moreover, these results showed that consistent responses to landscape composition at the assemblage level are harder to identify in fragmented Neotropical Forests. The responses of bats to habitat alteration tend to be highly species-specific.     

Radiation-constrained boundaries cause nonuniform responses of the carbon uptake phenology to climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two-dimensionality of the temperature-radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature-radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end-of-season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end-of-season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start-of-season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace.     

Multi-proxy approach detects heterogeneous habitats for primates during the Miocene climatic optimum in Central Europe

The present study attempts to characterize the environmental conditions that prevailed along the western shores of the Central Paratethys and its hinterland during the early middle Miocene at the same time t primates reached their peak in species diversity in Central Europe. Based on faunal structure (using cenograms), paleotemperature reconstruction (using cricetid diversity), and dietary reconstruction of ruminants (using molar micro-wear analyses), four faunal assemblages are used to characterize the regional environmental context. The cenograms for Göriach and Devínska Novà Ves Zapfe's fissure site support the presence of mosaic environments with open areas under rather humid conditions. This is also supported by the dental micro-wear analyses of ruminants. The species of Palaeomerycidae were most probably the only predominant browsers. Surprisingly, the three cervids, Dicrocerus, Heteroprox, and Euprox, were highly involved in grazing. Pseudoeotragus seegrabensis was likely a generalist and the two specimens assigned to the second bovid, Eotragus clavatus, were browsers. The two species of tragulids plot between fruit browsers and generalists. Moreover, paleotemperatures based on cricetid diversity estimate mean annual temperature at about 18 °C with potential high seasonal variations. These data support the predominance of mosaic landscapes along the western shores of the Central Paratethys and its hinterland during the Miocene Climatic Optimum as primates reach a peak in species diversity. This result lends credence to the hypothesis that environmental heterogeneity favours radiation among mammals, and that the specific environmental context of the Central Paratethys western border might explain the high diversity of the middle Miocene primates.