Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.     

Data uncertainty and the selectivity of extinction risk in freshwater invertebrates

Aim

To investigate the impact of different treatments of the IUCN Data Deficient (DD) category on taxonomic and geographical patterns of extinction risk in crayfish, freshwater crabs and dragonflies.

Location

Global.

Methods

We used contingency tables to evaluate taxonomic and geographical selectivity of data deficiency and extinction risk for three invertebrate taxonomic groups (crayfish, dragonflies and damselflies, and freshwater crabs) based on their IUCN Red List status. We investigated differences in patterns of data deficiency and extinction risk among taxonomic families, geographical realms and taxonomic families within geographical realms for each of the three groups. At each level, we evaluated the impact of uncertainty conferred by the conservation status of DD species on extinction risk patterns exhibited by that group. We evaluated three scenarios: excluding DD species, treating all DD species as non‐threatened and treating all DD species as threatened.

Results

At the global scale, DD species were taxonomically non‐randomly distributed in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, and geographically non‐randomly distributed in all three taxonomic groups. Although the presence of under‐ or over‐threatened families and biogeographical realms was generally unchanging across scenarios, the strength of taxonomic and geographical selectivity of extinction risk varied. There was little consistent evidence for taxonomic selectivity of extinction risk at sub‐global scales in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, either among biogeographical realms or among scenarios.

Main conclusions

Global patterns of taxonomic selectivity and geographical selectivity were generally consistent with one another and robust to different treatments of DD species. However, sub‐global scale conservation prioritization from these types of data sets will require increased investment to make accurate decisions. Given the current levels of data uncertainty, the relative importance of biological characteristics and threatening processes in driving extinctions in freshwater invertebrates cannot be easily determined. We recommend that DD species should be given high research priority to determine their true status.     

Geographical distribution and extinction risk: lessons from Triassic–Jurassic marine benthic organisms

Aim To evaluate the influence of geographical distribution on the extinction risk of benthic marine invertebrates using data from the fossil record, both during times of background extinction and across a mass‐extinction episode. Total geographical range is contrasted with proxies of global abundance to assess the relationships between the two essential components of geographical distribution and extinction risk. Location A global occurrence data base of fossil benthic macro‐organisms from the Triassic and Jurassic periods was used for this study. Methods Geographical distributions and biodiversity dynamics were assessed for each genus (all taxa) or species (bivalves) based on a sample‐standardized data set and palaeogeographical reconstructions. Geographical ranges were measured by the maximum great circle distance of a taxon within a stratigraphic interval. Global abundance was assessed by the number of localities at which a taxon was recorded. Widespread and rare taxa were separated using median and percentile values of the frequency distributions of occurrences. Results The frequency distribution of geographical ranges is very similar to that for modern taxa. Although no significant correlation could be established between local abundance and geographical range, proxies of global abundance are strongly correlated with geographical range. Taxon longevities are correlated with both mean geographical range and mean global abundance, but range size appears to be more critical than abundance in determining extinction risk. These results are valid when geographical distribution is treated as a trait of taxa and when assessed for individual geological stages. Main conclusions Geographical distribution is a key predictor of extinction risk of Triassic and Jurassic benthic marine invertebrates. An important exception is in the end‐Triassic mass extinction, which equally affected geographically restricted and widespread genera, as well as common and rare genera. This suggests that global diversity crises may curtail the role of geographical distribution in determining extinction risk.     

Behavioral Correlates of Primates Conservation Status: Intrinsic Vulnerability to Anthropogenic Threats

Behavioral traits are likely to influence species vulnerability to anthropogenic threats and in consequence, their risk of extinction. Several studies have addressed this question and have highlighted a correlation between reproductive strategies and different viability proxies, such as introduction success and local extinction risk. Yet, very few studies have investigated the effective impact of social behaviour, and evidence regarding global extinction risk remains scant. Here we examined the effects of three main behavioral factors: the group size, the social and reproductive system, and the strength of sexual selection on global extinction risk. Using Primates as biological model, we performed comparative analysis on 93 species. The conservation status as described by the IUCN Red List was considered as a proxy for extinction risk. In addition, we added previously identified intrinsic factors of vulnerability to extinction, and a measure of the strength of the human impact for each species, described by the human footprint. Our analysis highlighted a significant effect of two of the three studied behavioral traits, group size and social and reproductive system. Extinction risk is negatively correlated with mean group size, which may be due to an Allee effect resulting from the difficulties for solitary and monogamous species to find a partner at low densities. Our results also indicate that species with a flexible mating system are less vulnerable. Taking into account these behavioral variables is thus of high importance when establishing conservation plans, particularly when assessing species relative vulnerability.     

Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body–mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.     

Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring

Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species'' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as ‘lower risk''; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as ‘higher risk''. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species'' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Risk of extinction of plant communities: Risk and assessment categories

There are many proposals for the assessment of plant communities, based on different criteria, but very few proposals for categorization of the risk of extinction of plant communities (syntaxa). In this paper, concepts related to extent of occurence (EOO), area of occupancy (AOO), extinction and regeneration of plant communities are defined. Also, we propose and define several ranks of extinction risk based on quantitative criteria of the EOO, AOO and processes of decline. The proposals are global, for application to any type of cormophytic vegetation, without geographical restrictions. To check the adequacy of the proposed ranks and its thresholds, the method has been applied to the vegetation of the Iberian Peninsula based on the EOO (122 plant communities) and the AOO (2224 plant communities).     

The botanical education extinction and the fall of plant awareness

Civilization is dependent upon plants for survival. Plants permeate our every moment and our relationship with them will dictate how we will manage the threats of climate change and ecological collapse defining the Anthropocene. Yet, despite the significance of plants and the critical role they have played in shaping ecosystems, civilizations, and human cultures, many people are now disconnected from the botanical world. Students are presented with little plant content, particularly identification, compared with animal content. Consequently, we are producing few plant scientists and educating fewer scientists about plants. This drives a self‐accelerating cycle we term the extinction of botanical education. A process of knowledge erosion, that in this instance contributes to our separation from the natural world, makes us blind to the biodiversity crisis and inhibits our ability to restore it. We argue that neglecting the importance of plants within education threatens the foundations of industries and professions that rely on this knowledge. Furthermore, this extinction of botanical education creates an existential threat: Without the skills to fully comprehend the scale of and solutions to human‐induced global change, how do we as a society combat it? We present key research agendas that will enable us to reverse the extinction of botanical education and highlight the critical role plants play on the global stage.

Civilization is dependent upon plants for survival and our relationship with them will dictate how we will manage the global impact of humanity which defines the Anthropocene. We document and define a self‐perpetuating educational cycle that we term the extinction of botanical education and its impact on the science of botany and potential ramifications for society to reverse and stabilise human included global change.     

Extinction as a driver of avian latitudinal diversity gradients

The role of historical factors in driving latitudinal diversity gradients is poorly understood. Here, we used an updated global phylogeny of terrestrial birds to test the role of three key historical factors—speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates—in generating latitudinal diversity gradients for eight major clades. We fit a model that allows speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates to differ, both with latitude and between the New and Old World. Our results consistently support extinction (all clades had lowest extinction where species richness was highest) as a key driver of species richness gradients across each of eight major clades. In contrast, speciation and dispersal rates showed no consistent latitudinal patterns across replicate bird clades, and thus are unlikely to represent general underlying drivers of latitudinal diversity gradients.     

Using functional traits and phylogeny to understand local extinction risk in dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata)

Understanding the risk of local extinction of a species is vital in conservation biology, especially now when anthropogenic disturbances and global warming are severely changing natural habitats. Local extinction risk depends on species traits, such as its geographical range size, fresh body mass, dispersal ability, length of flying period, life history variation, and how specialized it is regarding its breeding habitat. We used a phylogenetic approach because closely related species are not independent observations in the statistical tests. Our field data contained the local extinction risk of 31 odonate (dragonflies and damselflies) species from Central Finland. Species relatedness (i.e., phylogenetic signal) did not affect local extinction risk, length of flying period, nor the geographical range size of a species. However, we found that closely related species were similar in hind wing length, length of larval period, and habitat of larvae. Both phylogenetically corrected (PGLS) and uncorrected (GLM) analysis indicated that the geographical range size of species was negatively related to local extinction risk. Contrary to expectations, habitat specialist species did not have higher local extinction rates than habitat generalist species nor was it affected by the relatedness of species. As predicted, species’ long larval period increased, and long wings decreased the local extinction risk when evolutionary relatedness was controlled. Our results suggest that a relatively narrow geographical range size is an accurate estimate for a local extinction risk of an odonate species, but the species with long life history and large habitat niche width of adults increased local extinction risk. Because the results were so similar between PGLS and GLM methods, it seems that using a phylogenetic approach does not improve predicting local extinctions.     

Comparing and contrasting threat assessments of plant species at the global and sub-global level

Evidence-based assessments of extinction risk are established tools used to inform the conservation of plant species, and form the basis of key targets within the framework of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC). An overall picture of plants threat assessments is challenging due to the use of a variety of methodologies and range in scope from global to subnational. In this study, we quantify the state of progress in assessing the extinction risk of all land plants, determine the key geographic and taxonomic gaps with respect to our understanding of plant extinction risk, and evaluate the impact of different sources and methodologies on the utility of plant assessments. To this end, we have analyzed a cleaned dataset compiled from IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and Regional Red Lists. We reveal that there are assessments available for 89,810 distinct species or 25% of all accepted land plant species. However unlike with other major organismal lineages the bulk of the plant species assessments are derived from Regional Red Lists, and not the Global IUCN Red List. We demonstrate that this bias towards regional assessments results in distinct taxonomic and geographic strengths and weaknesses, and we identify substantial taxonomic and geographic gaps in the assessment coverage. With species that have been assessed in common at both global and regional levels, we explore the implications of combining threat assessments from different sources. We find that half of global and regional assessments do not agree on the exact category of extinction risk for a species. Regional assessments assign a higher risk of extinction; or underestimate extinction risk with almost equal frequency. We conclude with recommended interventions, but support the suggestion that all threat assessments should be pooled to provide more data and broaden the scope of threat assessments for monitoring progress towards GSPC targets.     

Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans,not climate change

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132 000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.     

Correlates of extinction vulnerability in Canadian’s prairie ecoregion

Identifying the correlates of extinction can help prioritize species for conservation effort, an important step when developing effective conservation policies. Most previous studies on extinction vulnerability have been restricted to a single predictor within a specific region. To understand the mechanism underlying predictors of extinction risk, an examination of the contribution of various factors at different scales is an important step. We investigated the contribution of phylogeny, ploidy level, habitat breadth, and life form on both provincial and national conservation ranks of Alberta’s prairie ecoregion plant species. We collected data on conservation status, chromosome number, habitat breadth, and life form for 1274 species. We used phylogenetic comparative models to assess (1) the relative contribution, significance, and possible interaction of predictor variables in determining extinction vulnerability, and (2) the possible underlying mechanisms governing observed patterns of extinction vulnerability at the provincial and national level. We find that the contribution, significance, and predictive power of variables were often scale-dependent. While the impact of habitat breadth was significant at both provincial and national scales, ploidy and life form was only significant at the national and provincial level, respectively. We also found a significant negative interaction between ploidy and habitat breadth at both geographical scales, such that among widespread species (species with a higher habitat breadth), diploids are less likely to be at risk than polyploids. Our study reveals the importance of the study scale on the accuracy of extinction prediction. We also suggest that discriminating between regionally restricted and non-restricted species could improve the predictability of sub-global extinction patterns.

     

The merging of community ecology and phylogenetic biology

The increasing availability of phylogenetic data, computing power and informatics tools has facilitated a rapid expansion of studies that apply phylogenetic data and methods to community ecology. Several key areas are reviewed in which phylogenetic information helps to resolve long-standing controversies in community ecology, challenges previous assumptions, and opens new areas of investigation. In particular, studies in phylogenetic community ecology have helped to reveal the multitude of processes driving community assembly and have demonstrated the importance of evolution in the assembly process. Phylogenetic approaches have also increased understanding of the consequences of community interactions for speciation, adaptation and extinction. Finally, phylogenetic community structure and composition holds promise for predicting ecosystem processes and impacts of global change. Major challenges to advancing these areas remain. In particular, determining the extent to which ecologically relevant traits are phylogenetically conserved or convergent, and over what temporal scale, is critical to understanding the causes of community phylogenetic structure and its evolutionary and ecosystem consequences. Harnessing phylogenetic information to understand and forecast changes in diversity and dynamics of communities is a critical step in managing and restoring the Earth's biota in a time of rapid global change.     

Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales.

A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of internal patch dynamics and coupling between patches. This problem can be addressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording the local and global dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of measles meta-populations in a large spatiotemporal case notification data set, collected during the pre-vaccination era in England and Wales. Specifically, we use generalized linear statistical models to quantify the relative importance of local influences (birth rate and population size) and regional coupling on local epidemic dynamics. Apart from the proportional effect of local population size on case totals, the models indicate patterns of local and regional dynamic influences which depend on the current state of epidemics. Birth rate and geographic coupling are not associated with the size of major epidemics. By contrast, minor epidemics--and especially the incidence of local extinction of infection--are influenced both by birth rate and geographical coupling. Birth rate at a lag of four years provides the best fit, reflecting the delayed recruitment of susceptibles to school cohorts. A hierarchical index of spatial coupling to large centres provides the best spatial model. The model also indicates that minor epidemics and extinction patterns are more strongly influenced by this regional effect than the local impact of birth rate.     

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.     

Marine extinction risk shaped by trait–environment interactions over 500 million years

Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait‐based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta‐analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait‐based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life‐habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow‐ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3–3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.     

Phylogenetic host specificity and understanding parasite sharing in primates

Understanding how parasites are transmitted to new species is of great importance for human health, agriculture and conservation. However, it is still unclear why some parasites are shared by many species, while others have only one host. Using a new measure of ‘phylogenetic host specificity’, we find that most primate parasites with more than one host are phylogenetic generalists, infecting less closely related primates than expected. Evolutionary models suggest that phylogenetic host generalism is driven by a mixture of host–parasite cospeciation and lower rates of parasite extinction. We also show that phylogenetic relatedness is important in most analyses, but fails to fully explain patterns of parasite sharing among primates. Host ecology and geographical distribution emerged as key additional factors that influence contacts among hosts to facilitate sharing. Greater understanding of these factors is therefore crucial to improve our ability to predict future infectious disease risks.