Food or nesting place? Identifying factors limiting Wryneck populations

In recent decades, farmland bird populations have declined strongly as a consequence of agriculture intensification. Birds may have lost breeding sites, food supply or other crucial resources, with the role of multiple factors often remaining unclear. The ant-eating and cavity-breeding Wryneck (Jynx torquilla) may be limited by the availability of cavities, the number of ants or their accessibility. By comparing occupied and unoccupied breeding territories, we investigated the relative role of these factors in the decline of Wrynecks. We compared the characteristics of known Wryneck breeding territories (availability of breeding cavities, food abundance and ground vegetation structure) with randomly selected, fictitious territories (n = 154) in Western Switzerland. We also studied environmental factors that may affect ant nest density. The probability of territory occupancy strongly increased with both nestbox availability and ant abundance. In addition, this probability peaked around 50% of bare ground cover. Habitat types that harbour low ant abundance such as cropland and grassland were avoided. Ant nest density decreased with increasing amounts of bare ground, and it was particularly high in vineyards. Our results showed that breeding cavities, food availability and its accessibility all limit Wryneck distribution. The maintenance and restoration of ant rich grassland, interspersed with patches of bare ground and with hollow trees or dedicated nestboxes in the surroundings, are essential to preserve Wryneck populations. Such a habitat structure could be achieved even in intensively farmed habitats, such as in vineyards or fruit tree plantations.     

Fine‐scale habitat use during the non‐breeding season suggests that winter habitat does not limit breeding populations of a declining long‐distance Palearctic migrant

For migrant birds, which habitats are suitable during the non‐breeding season influences habitat availability, population resilience to habitat loss, and ultimately survival. Consequently, habitat preferences during winter and whether habitat segregation according to age and sex occurs directly influences migration ecology, survival and breeding success. We tested the fine‐scale habitat preferences of a declining Palearctic migrant, the whinchat Saxicola rubetra, on its wintering grounds in west Africa. We explored the influence of habitat at the territory‐scale and whether dominance‐based habitat occupancy occurs by describing the variation in habitat characteristics across wintering territories, the degree of habitat change within territories held throughout winter, and whether habitat characteristics influenced territory size and space‐use within territories or differed with age and sex. Habitat characteristics varied substantially across territories and birds maintained the same territories even though habitat changed significantly throughout winter. We found no evidence of dominance‐based habitat occupancy; instead, territories were smaller if they contained more perching shrubs or maize crops, and areas with more perching shrubs were used more often within territories, likely because perches are important for foraging and territory defence. Our findings suggest that whinchats have non‐specialised habitat requirements within their wintering habitat of open savannah and farmland, and respond to habitat variation by adjusting territory size and space‐use within their territories instead of competing with conspecifics. Whinchats show a tolerance for human‐modified habitats and results support previous findings that some crop types may provide high‐quality wintering habitat by increasing perch density and foraging opportunities. By having non‐specialised requirements within broad winter habitat types, migrants are likely to be flexible to changing wintering conditions in Africa, both within and across winters, so possibly engendering some resilience to the rapid anthropogenic habitat degradation occurring throughout their wintering range.     

Population decline in California spotted owls near their southern range boundary

Species worldwide have begun to shift their range boundaries in response to climate change and other anthropogenic causes, with population declines at the trailing edge of a species' range often foreshadowing future changes in core parts of the range. Therefore, we analyzed a 30-year (1991–2019) data set for the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) near its southern range boundary in southern California, USA, that included the largest regional population (San Bernardino Mountains) to estimate trends in territory occupancy and reproduction. We then assessed how these demographic rates were affected by habitat, wildfire, fuel treatments, and climate. Mean occupancy declined from 0.82 to 0.39 during our study, whereas reproductive output showed no temporal trends ( young/occupied territory). Territory extinction (extirpation) rates were relatively low in territories with more large trees (≥50 cm dbh), and colonization increased strongly with large tree density for low-elevation territories within the shrub-woodland ecotype but not for higher-elevation territories within mixed-conifer forest. High-severity wildfire had an adverse effect on occupancy: territory extinction rates steadily increased with the amount of high-severity fire within an owl territory during the previous 10 years, while colonization declined to nearly zero when ≥40% of a territory burned at high-severity during the previous 10 years. The effects of high-severity fire were unlikely to be confounded with post-fire fuel treatments, which primarily consisted of the removal, burning, or scattering of brush and small trees and snags (<40.6 cm dbh) and affected much smaller areas than high-severity fire. Of the 40 territories that received fuel treatments within 10 years of a fire, only 3 of them had post-fire fuel treatments that affected >5% of the territory, whereas average area burned at high severity for all 40 territories was 17%. Fuel treatments intended to modify fire behavior and reduce the likelihood of large, high-severity fires led to increases in territory extinction and colonization such that their net effect on occupancy was minimal. Our simulations of occupancy dynamics indicated that high-severity fire accounted for 9.6% of the observed decline in occupancy, whereas fuel treatments effectively accounted for none of the decline. Spotted owl reproductive output was lower at territories where fuel treatments occurred, but low- to moderate-severity fire resulted in much larger, population-level reductions in reproductive output (141 fewer young) from 2006–2019 than treatments (19 fewer young). Thus, the benefits of fuel treatments that reduce fire occurrence and severity appear to outweigh potential short-term costs to spotted owls and their habitat. Because high-severity fire only explained a modest amount of the long-term occupancy decline and much of the decline occurred in the 1990s before large fires occurred, additional factors are likely adversely affecting the owl population and merit further study. Nevertheless, the large observed population decline, limited evidence of owl dispersal among mountain ranges in the southern California metapopulation, and negative effects of increasingly large and severe fire suggest that California spotted owls at their southern range boundary are vulnerable to extirpation. In an era of climate change, owls in the core part of the range will likely become increasingly susceptible to warmer temperatures and increased severe fire activity in the future. Thus, the restoration of historical, low-severity fire regimes through fuels management while maintaining large trees is important to improving owl persistence.     

Patterns of territory size and defence level in rural and urban tawny owl (Strix aluco) populations

The effect of different variables on the territory size and defence level of tawny owl ( Strix aluco L.) populations was studied in two habitats: mixed farmland (1976–1978) and town (1986–1988). Territory size was determined by plotting the position of territorial challenges (hoots) of males which were individually recognizable in most cases. No differences were found in size, defence, number of competitors and biomass between territories in farmland and in town, but territories in town were more fragmented and showed a larger nearest neighbour distance. Size of rural territories was adequately predicted both by some structural habitat features and food supplies, while size of urban territories was affected only by habitat structure and by years of territory occupancy. No effect on territory size by competing neighbours was found in either habitat, thus confirming that behavioural interactions between the owners of territories and potential settlers prevent a decrease of territory size.
Defence level of urban territories was affected by 'social'variables (nearest neighbour distance and years of occupancy), structural variables (percentage of poplar grove and diversity), and food supply, while in rural territories only structural variables (fragmentation or natural vegetation) and food supplies affected defence level.
This was due to different settlement tactics in the two areas, depending on the extent and quality of suitable habitat.     

Occupancy of yellow‐billed and Pacific loons: evidence for interspecific competition and habitat mediated co‐occurrence

Interspecific competition is an important process structuring ecological communities, however, it is difficult to observe in nature. We used an occupancy modelling approach to evaluate evidence of competition between yellow‐billed (Gavia adamsii) and Pacific (G. pacifica) loons for nesting lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. With multiple years of data and survey platforms, we estimated dynamic occupancy states (e.g. rates of colonization or extinction from individual lakes) and controlled for detection differences among aircraft platforms and ground survey crews. Results indicated that yellow‐billed loons were strong competitors and negatively influenced the occupancy of Pacific loons by excluding them from potential breeding lakes. Pacific loon occupancy was conditional on the presence of yellow‐billed loons, with Pacific loons having almost a tenfold decrease in occupancy probability when yellow‐billed loons were present and a threefold decrease in colonization probability when yellow‐billed loons were present in the current or previous year. Yellow‐billed and Pacific loons co‐occurred less than expected by chance except on very large lakes or lakes with convoluted shorelines; variables which may decrease the cost of maintaining a territory in the presence of the other species. These results imply the existence of interspecific competition between yellow‐billed and Pacific loons for nesting lakes; however, habitat characteristics which facilitate visual and spatial separation of territories can reduce competitive interactions and promote species co‐occurrence.     

Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated landscapes

The influence of habitat quality and population density on occupancy dynamics may surpass that of traditional metrics of area and isolation, but often this is not considered explicitly in studies of spatially structured populations. In landscapes that are not easily characterized as binary habitat/non‐habitat (e.g. variegated landscapes), this influence may be even more important and occur at both local and landscape levels. It follows that occupancy dynamics may be driven by disparate processes depending on how extinction or colonization relate to habitat quality and population density. We examined the relative influence of area, structural isolation, habitat quality, local population density, and neighborhood population density (i.e. population density in the landscape around a site) on the probability of extinction and colonization of snowshoe hare Lepus americanus across an expansive forest mosaic landscape (encompassing the northern third of Idaho). Habitat quality and population density were highly influential in determining extinction and colonization, whereas patch area and isolation were much less important. Sites with heavier vegetative cover at the site or landscape‐level were more likely to be colonized and less likely to go extinct, and sites with greater local population density in the previous time step had lower probability of extinction. Sites embedded in high density neighborhoods also were less likely to go extinct, but not more likely to be colonized. We found a significant interaction between local and neighborhood population density on extinction in 1 yr, suggesting that the strength of demographic rescue may vary dependent on local site densities. Our results add to a growing literature showing that factors outside of structural metrics of area and isolation are important drivers of occupancy dynamics. Given the multi‐scaled influence of habitat quality and population density on occupancy dynamics, our work also indicates that research on snowshoe hare must extend beyond simply assessing local factors to understand the spatial dynamics of populations.     

Seasonal Differences in Extinction and Colonization Drive Occupancy Dynamics of an Imperilled Amphibian

A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km²) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009–2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.     

Patches of bare ground as a staple commodity for declining ground-foraging insectivorous farmland birds

Conceived to combat widescale biodiversity erosion in farmland, agri-environment schemes have largely failed to deliver their promises despite massive financial support. While several common species have shown to react positively to existing measures, rare species have continued to decline in most European countries. Of particular concern is the status of insectivorous farmland birds that forage on the ground. We modelled the foraging habitat preferences of four declining insectivorous bird species (hoopoe, wryneck, woodlark, common redstart) inhabiting fruit tree plantations, orchards and vineyards. All species preferred foraging in habitat mosaics consisting of patches of grass and bare ground, with an optimal, species-specific bare ground coverage of 30-70% at the foraging patch scale. In the study areas, birds thrived in intensively cultivated farmland where such ground vegetation mosaics existed. Not promoted by conventional agri-environment schemes until now, patches of bare ground should be implemented throughout grassland in order to prevent further decline of insectivorous farmland birds.     

The relative contribution of local habitat and landscape context to metapopulation processes: a dynamic occupancy modeling approach

Changes in site occupancy across habitat patches have often been attributed to landscape features in fragmented systems, particularly when considering metapopulations. However, failure to include habitat quality of individual patches can mask the relative importance of local scale features in determining distributional changes. We employed dynamic occupancy modeling to compare the strength of local habitat variables and metrics of landscape patterns as drivers of metapopulation dynamics for a vulnerable, high‐elevation species in a naturally fragmented landscape. Repeat surveys of Bicknell's thrush Catharus bicknelli presence/non‐detection were conducted at 88 sites across Vermont, USA in 2006 and 2007. We used an organism‐based approach, such that at each site we measured important local‐scale habitat characteristics and quantified landscape‐scale features using a predictive habitat model for this species. We performed a principal component analysis on both the local and landscape features to reduce dimensionality. We estimated site occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities while accounting for imperfect detection. Univariate, additive, and interaction models of local habitat and landscape context were ranked using AICc scores. Both local and landscape scales were important in determining changes in occupancy patterns. An interaction between scales was detected for occupancy dynamics indicating that the relationship of the parameters to local‐scale habitat conditions can change depending on the landscape context and vice versa. An increase in both landscape‐ and local‐scale habitat quality increased occupancy and colonization probability while decreasing extinction risk. Colonization and extinction were both more strongly influenced by local habitat quality relative to landscape patterns. We also identified clear, qualitative thresholds for landscape‐scale features. Conservation of large habitat patches in high‐cover landscapes will help ensure persistence of Bicknell's thrushes, but only if local scale habitat quality is maintained. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating information beyond landscape characteristics when investigating patch occupancy patterns in metapopulations.     

Habitat selection and reproductive success of Ortolan Buntings Emberiza hortulana on farmland in central Sweden – the importance of habitat heterogeneity

Many granivorous birds have shown severe population declines in Europe during recent decades. The aim of the present study was to analyse habitat preferences and reproductive success of one such species, the Ortolan Bunting Emberiza hortulana, in different farmland habitats in south‐central Sweden. Four seemingly different land‐use types were preferred: permanent set‐asides, short rotation coppice, and grazed and unmanaged semi‐natural pastures. Territories and random sites differed considerably in the proportion of these preferred land‐use types; 39% of territories had > 70% preferred habitat (at the 100‐m scale) compared to 5% of random sites. In contrast, 22% of territories and 65% of random sites had no preferred habitats. All the preferred habitats had heterogeneous ground vegetation characterized by patches with bare ground, or at least sparse ground vegetation, intermixed with patches with taller vegetation. Ortolan Buntings also preferred a heterogeneous habitat structure with occurrence of field islets, shrubby edges, barns and electric wires, which could act as song posts or suitable nest‐sites, in 88% of territories. At a larger (1‐km square) scale, territories occupied by pairs aggregated strongly in areas with high proportions of preferred habitats. The number of territories with single males correlated positively with the number of pairs, which suggests that conspecific attraction may influence territory distribution. No measured habitat factors were related to reproductive success. However, due to habitat preferences and the higher proportion of paired males in one habitat type (set‐aside), the production of young (fledglings/ha) is expected to be higher in set‐asides, as well as in short‐rotation coppices and semi‐natural pastures. Thus, these habitats are important for the conservation of the Ortolan Bunting. Large areas with habitat structures such as field islets are especially important because the Ortolan Bunting breeds in aggregations in these areas.     

Human disturbance and stage‐specific habitat requirements influence snowy plover site occupancy during the breeding season

Habitat use has important consequences for avian reproductive success and survival. In coastal areas with recreational activity, human disturbance may limit use of otherwise suitable habitat. Snowy plovers Charadrius nivosus have a patchy breeding distribution along the coastal areas on the Florida Panhandle, USA. Our goal was to determine the relative effects of seasonal human disturbance and habitat requirements on snowy plover habitat use. We surveyed 303 sites for snowy plovers, human disturbance, and habitat features between January and July 2009 and 2010. We made multiple visits during three different sampling periods that corresponded to snowy plover breeding: pre‐breeding, incubation, and brood‐rearing and used multi‐season occupancy models to examine whether human disturbance, habitat features, or both influenced site occupancy, colonization (probability of transition from an unoccupied site to an occupied site), and extinction (probability of transition from an occupied site to an unoccupied site). Snowy plover site occupancy and colonization was negatively associated with human disturbance and site extinction was positively associated with human disturbance. Interdune vegetation had a negative effect on occupancy and colonization, indicating that plovers were less likely to use areas with uniform, dense vegetation among dunes. Also, dune shape, beach debris, and access to low‐energy foraging areas influenced site occupancy, colonization, and extinction. Plovers used habitat based on beach characteristics that provided stage‐specific resource needs; however, human disturbance was the strongest predictor of site occupancy. In addition, vegetation plantings used to enhance dune rehabilitation may negatively impact plover site occupancy. Management actions that decrease human disturbance, such as symbolic fencing and signage, may increase the amount of breeding habitat available to snowy plovers on the Florida Panhandle and in other areas with high human activity. The specific areas that require this protection may vary across snowy plover life history stages.     

Territory Occupancy and Parental Quality as Proxies for Spatial Prioritization of Conservation Areas

In order to maximize their fitness, individuals aim at choosing territories offering the most appropriate combination of resources. As population size fluctuates in time, the frequency of breeding territory occupancy reflects territory quality. We investigated the relationships between the frequency of territory occupancy (2002–2009) vs. habitat characteristics, prey abundance, reproductive success and parental traits in hoopoes Upupa epops L., with the objective to define proxies for the delineation of conservation priority areas. We predicted that the distribution of phenotypes is despotic and sought for phenotypic characteristics expressing dominance. Our findings support the hypothesis of a despotic distribution. Territory selection was non-random: frequently occupied territories were settled earlier in the season and yielded higher annual reproductive success, but the frequency of territory occupancy could not be related to any habitat characteristics. Males found in frequently occupied territories showed traits expressing dominance (i.e. larger body size and mass, and older age). In contrast, morphological traits of females were not related to the frequency of territory occupancy, suggesting that territory selection and maintenance were essentially a male''s task. Settlement time in spring, reproductive success achieved in a given territory, as well as phenotypic traits and age of male territory holders reflected territory quality, providing good proxies for assessing priority areas for conservation management.     

Predicting occurrence of wolf territories in Scandinavia

We used logistic regression to compare a set of habitat features inside known Scandinavian wolf Canis lupus territories with the same habitat features in areas outside known territories, but still close enough to be available for wolf colonization. In addition, we analysed changes in habitat variables over time within wolf territories. Wolf territories had lower densities of roads, built-up areas and open land than areas outside wolf territories, but there was no difference in the density of the wolves' main prey, elk Alces alces . The logistic regression model classified 79% of Scandinavia outside the reindeer husbandry area as suitable wolf habitat, that is with a probability of wolf occurrence >0.5. The proportion of built-up areas within the wolf territory decreased as the 'borders' of the wolf territory changed over time. Our model had a reasonably high predictive power, with correct classification in 90% (18 of 20) of the observed wolf territories in the study area. Polygons, randomly distributed outside the observed wolf territories, were correctly classified as not being occupied by wolves in 85% of the cases (17 of 20). This allows a more effective use of resources to, for example, prevent wolf depredation on livestock and dogs.     

高原鼠兔在不同植被覆盖的立地占据、局部灭绝和建群率研究

青藏高原的草地生态系统被野生动物和家畜广泛地利用。大型有蹄类动物的放牧和小型哺乳类动物的挖掘行为,会改变其栖息地的植物群落。基于拉萨市墨竹工卡县日多镇年村牦牛(Bos grunniens)放牧的实践,我们发现高原鼠兔(Ochotona curzoniae)立地占域率、建群和区域灭绝率与栖息地变量之间存在一定的格局关系。为了了解高原鼠兔立地占域率、建群和区域灭绝率与栖息地之间的关系,我们采用多季节性立地占据模型,利用Presence软件对相关数据进行分析。结果表明,高原鼠兔局部灭绝率与植被覆盖度之间存在正相关性,而与建群率之间则呈负相关性。     

Extinction, colonization, and species occupancy in tidepool fishes

Despite the increasing sophistication of ecological models with respect to the size and spatial arrangement of habitat, there is relatively little empirical documentation of how species dynamics change as a function of habitat size and the fraction of habitat occupied. In an assemblage of tidepool fishes, I used maximum-likelihood estimation to test whether models which included habitat size provided a better fit to empirical data on extinction and colonization probabilities than models that assumed constant probabilities over all habitats. I found species differences in how extinction and colonization probabilities scaled with habitat size (and hence local population size). However, there was little evidence for a relationship between extinction and colonization probabilities and the fraction of occupied tidepools, as assumed in simple metapopulation models. Instead, colonization and extinction were independent of the fraction of occupied tidepools, favoring a MacArthur-Wilson island-mainland model. When I incorporated declines in extinction probability with tidepool volume in a simple simulation model, I found that predicted occupancy could change greatly, especially when colonization was low. However, the predicted fraction of occupied patches in the simulation model changed little when I incorporated the range of values reported here for extinction and colonization and the rate at which they scale with habitat size. Quantifying extinction and colonization patterns of natural populations is fundamental to understanding how species are distributed spatially and whether metapopulation models of species occupancy provide explanatory power for field populations. Received: 14 March 1997 / Accepted: 21 September 1997     

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990–2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.     

The influence of territory characteristics and food supply on the breeding performance of the Red-backed Shrike (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lanius collurio</Emphasis>) in an extensively farmed region of eastern Poland

The breeding performance of the Red-backed Shrike (Lanius collurio) in relation to the territory characteristics was investigated. The study was conducted in an area of high agricultural land use, characterised by small field size, a more mosaic habitat and low use of mineral fertilisers in comparison to Western European countries. The influence of habitat structure and composition in the territory on the date of clutch initiation, nest predation and clutch size in the Red-backed Shrike was not found, but such an influence on the number of nestlings was shown. The minimum adequate model explained 18.3% of the variation between territories in nestling’s number. The number of fledglings was positively correlated with the area of pastures, meadows, orchards and fallows within territories, and negatively correlated with length of overhead transmission lines. The number of fledglings was correlated with food abundance within territories, based on to the results from pitfall traps. There was no correlation between territory food abundance and the size of clutch. The presence of pastures, meadows and fallows, which are foraging places, thus seems to be crucial for the protection of the Red-backed Shrike.     

Colonization and extinction dynamics of an annual plant metapopulation in an urban environment

The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations.     

Population regulation by habitat heterogeneity or individual adjustment?

1. The habitat heterogeneity (HHH) and individual adjustment (IAH) hypotheses are commonly proposed to explain a decrease in reproduction rate with increasing population density. Higher numbers of low-quality territories with low reproductive success as density increases lead to a decrease in reproduction under the HHH, while more competition at high density decreases reproduction across all territories under the IAH. 2. We analyse the influence of density and habitat heterogeneity on reproductive success in eight populations of long-lived territorial birds of prey belonging to four species. Sufficient reliability in distinguishing between population-wide, site-specific and individual quality effects on reproduction was granted through the minimal duration of 20 years of all data sets and the ability to control for individual quality in five of them. 3. Density increased in five populations but reproduction did not decrease in these. Territory occupancy as a surrogate of territory quality correlated positively with reproductive success but only significantly so in large data sets with more than 100 territories. 4. Reproductive success was always best explained by measures of territory quality in multivariate models. Direct or delayed (t-1) population density entered very few of the best models. Mixed models controlling for individual quality showed an increasing reproductive performance in older individuals and in those laying earlier, but measures of territory quality were also always retained in the best models. 5. We find strong support for the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis but weak support for the individual adjustment hypothesis. Both individual and site characteristics are crucial for reproductive performance in long-lived birds. Proportional occupancy of territories enables recognition of high-quality territories as preferential conservation targets.     

Demographic models of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina)

Summary Calassical demographic methods applied to life history data on the northern spotted owl yield and estimate of the annual geometric rate of increase for the population of λ=0.96±0.03, which is not significantly different from that for a stable population (λ=1.00). Sensitivity analysis indicates that adult annual survivorship has by far the largest influence on λ, followed by the probability that juveniles survive dispersal, and the adult annual fecundity. Substantial temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters have little effect on the long-run growth rate of the population because of the long adult life expectancy. A model of dispersal and territory occupancy that assumes demographic equilibrium is evaluated using data on the amount of old forest habitat remaining in the Pacific Northwest and the current occupancy of this habitat by northern spotted owls. This model is employed to predict the effect of future habitat loss and fragmentation on the population, implying that extinction will result if the old forest is reduced to less than a proportion 0.21±0.02 of the total area in a large region. The estimated minimum habitat requirement for the population is greater than that allowed in management plants by the USDA Forest Service.