Rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis with the Xpert MTB/RIF assay in high burden countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is a promising new rapid diagnostic technology for tuberculosis (TB) that has characteristics that suggest large-scale roll-out. However, because the test is expensive, there are concerns among TB program managers and policy makers regarding its affordability for low- and middle-income settings.

Methods and Findings

We estimate the impact of the introduction of Xpert on the costs and cost-effectiveness of TB care using decision analytic modelling, comparing the introduction of Xpert to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis in India, South Africa, and Uganda. The introduction of Xpert increases TB case finding in all three settings; from 72%–85% to 95%–99% of the cohort of individuals with suspected TB, compared to the base case. Diagnostic costs (including the costs of testing all individuals with suspected TB) also increase: from US$28–US$49 to US$133–US$146 and US$137–US$151 per TB case detected when Xpert is used “in addition to” and “as a replacement of” smear microscopy, respectively. The incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for using Xpert “in addition to” smear microscopy, compared to the base case, range from US$41–$110 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Likewise the ICERS for using Xpert “as a replacement of” smear microscopy range from US$52–$138 per DALY averted. These ICERs are below the World Health Organization (WHO) willingness to pay threshold.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that Xpert is a cost-effective method of TB diagnosis, compared to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis of smear-negative TB in low- and middle-income settings where, with its ability to substantially increase case finding, it has important potential for improving TB diagnosis and control. The extent of cost-effectiveness gain to TB programmes from deploying Xpert is primarily dependent on current TB diagnostic practices. Further work is required during scale-up to validate these findings. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Comparison of patient and surgeon expectations of total hip arthroplasty

Objectives

Analysis of discrepancies between patient and surgeon expectations before total hip arthroplasty (THA) should enable a better understanding of motives of dissatisfaction about surgery, but this question has been seldom studied. Our objectives were to compare surgeons'' and patients'' expectations before THA, and to study factors which affected surgeon-patient agreement.

Methods

132 adults (mean age 62.8+/−13.7 years, 52% men) on waiting list for THA in three tertiary care centres and their 16 surgeons were interviewed to assess their expectations using the Hospital for Special Surgery Total Hip Replacement Expectations Survey (range 0–100). Patients'' and surgeons'' answers were compared, for the total score and for the score of each item. Univariate analyses tested the effect of patients'' characteristics on surgeons'' and patients'' expectations separately, and on surgeon-patient differences.

Results

Surgeon and patient expectations'' mean scores were high (respectively 90.9+/−11.1 and 90.0+/−11.6 over 100). Surgeons'' and patients'' expectations showed no systematic difference, but there was little agreement on Bland and Altman graph and correlation coefficient was low. Patients had higher expectations than surgeons for sports. Patients rated their expectations according to trust in physician and mental quality of life, surgeons considered disability. More disabled patients and patients from a low-income professional category were often “more optimistic” than their surgeons.

Conclusion

Surgeons and patients often do not agree on what to expect from THA. More disabled patients expect better outcomes than their surgeons.     

Modelling long term disability following injury: comparison of three approaches for handling multiple injuries

Background

Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale – Extended (GOS-E).

Methods

12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as “recovered.” A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) “worst injury;” and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration.

Findings

A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1–16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and “worst injury” (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and “worst injury” models demonstrated acceptable calibration.

Conclusions

The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and “worst” injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies.     

Long-term interleukin-6 levels and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: two new prospective studies and a systematic review

Background

The relevance to coronary heart disease (CHD) of cytokines that govern inflammatory cascades, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6), may be underestimated because such mediators are short acting and prone to fluctuations. We evaluated associations of long-term circulating IL-6 levels with CHD risk (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or fatal CHD) in two population-based cohorts, involving serial measurements to enable correction for within-person variability. We updated a systematic review to put the new findings in context.

Methods and Findings

Measurements were made in samples obtained at baseline from 2,138 patients who had a first-ever nonfatal MI or died of CHD during follow-up, and from 4,267 controls in two cohorts comprising 24,230 participants. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart in several hundred participants. The year-to-year variability of IL-6 values within individuals was relatively high (regression dilution ratios of 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28–0.53, over 4 y, and 0.35, 95% CI 0.23–0.48, over 12 y). Ignoring this variability, we found an odds ratio for CHD, adjusted for several established risk factors, of 1.46 (95% CI 1.29–1.65) per 2 standard deviation (SD) increase of baseline IL-6 values, similar to that for baseline C-reactive protein. After correction for within-person variability, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.14 (95% CI 1.45–3.15) with long-term average (“usual”) IL-6, similar to those for some established risk factors. Increasing IL-6 levels were associated with progressively increasing CHD risk. An updated systematic review of electronic databases and other sources identified 15 relevant previous population-based prospective studies of IL-6 and clinical coronary outcomes (i.e., MI or coronary death). Including the two current studies, the 17 available prospective studies gave a combined odds ratio of 1.61 (95% CI 1.42–1.83) per 2 SD increase in baseline IL-6 (corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.34 [95% CI 2.45–4.56] per 2 SD increase in usual [long-term average] IL-6 levels).

Conclusions

Long-term IL-6 levels are associated with CHD risk about as strongly as are some major established risk factors, but causality remains uncertain. These findings highlight the potential relevance of IL-6–mediated pathways to CHD.     

Incidence and clinical characteristics of group A rotavirus infections among children admitted to hospital in Kilifi, Kenya

Background

Rotavirus, predominantly of group A, is a major cause of severe diarrhoea worldwide, with the greatest burden falling on young children living in less-developed countries. Vaccines directed against this virus have shown promise in recent trials, and are undergoing effectiveness evaluation in sub-Saharan Africa. In this region limited childhood data are available on the incidence and clinical characteristics of severe group A rotavirus disease. Advocacy for vaccine intervention and interpretation of effectiveness following implementation will benefit from accurate base-line estimates of the incidence and severity of rotavirus paediatric admissions in relevant populations. The study objective was to accurately define the incidence and severity of group A rotavirus disease in a resource-poor setting necessary to make informed decisions on the need for vaccine prevention.

Methods and Findings

Between 2002 and 2004 we conducted prospective surveillance for group A rotavirus infection at Kilifi District Hospital in coastal Kenya. Children < 13 y of age were eligible as “cases” if admitted with diarrhoea, and “controls” if admitted without diarrhoea. We calculated the incidence of hospital admission with group A rotavirus using data from a demographic surveillance study of 220,000 people in Kilifi District. Of 15,347 childhood admissions 3,296 (22%) had diarrhoea, 2,039 were tested for group A rotavirus antigen and, of these, 588 (29%) were positive. 372 (63%) rotavirus-positive cases were infants. Of 620 controls 19 (3.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9–4.7) were rotavirus positive. The annual incidence (per 100,000 children) of rotavirus-positive admissions was 1,431 (95% CI 1,275–1,600) in infants and 478 (437–521) in under-5-y-olds, and highest proximal to the hospital. Compared to children with rotavirus-negative diarrhoea, rotavirus-positive cases were less likely to have coexisting illnesses and more likely to have acidosis (46% versus 17%) and severe electrolyte imbalance except hyponatraemia. In-hospital case fatality was 2% among rotavirus-positive and 9% among rotavirus-negative children.

Conclusions

In Kilifi > 2% of children are admitted to hospital with group A rotavirus diarrhoea in the first 5 y of life. This translates into over 28,000 vaccine-preventable hospitalisations per year across Kenya, and is likely to be a considerable underestimate. Group A rotavirus diarrhoea is associated with acute life-threatening metabolic derangement in otherwise healthy children. Although mortality is low in this clinical research setting this may not be generally true in African hospitals lacking rapid and appropriate management.     

Publication of clinical trials supporting successful new drug applications: a literature analysis

Background

The United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves new drugs based on sponsor-submitted clinical trials. The publication status of these trials in the medical literature and factors associated with publication have not been evaluated. We sought to determine the proportion of trials submitted to the FDA in support of newly approved drugs that are published in biomedical journals that a typical clinician, consumer, or policy maker living in the US would reasonably search.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cohort study of trials supporting new drugs approved between 1998 and 2000, as described in FDA medical and statistical review documents and the FDA approved drug label. We determined publication status and time from approval to full publication in the medical literature at 2 and 5 y by searching PubMed and other databases through 01 August 2006. We then evaluated trial characteristics associated with publication. We identified 909 trials supporting 90 approved drugs in the FDA reviews, of which 43% (394/909) were published. Among the subset of trials described in the FDA-approved drug label and classified as “pivotal trials” for our analysis, 76% (257/340) were published. In multivariable logistic regression for all trials 5 y postapproval, likelihood of publication correlated with statistically significant results (odds ratio [OR] 3.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–5.17); larger sample sizes (OR 1.33 per 2-fold increase in sample size, 95% CI 1.17–1.52); and pivotal status (OR 5.31, 95% CI 3.30–8.55). In multivariable logistic regression for only the pivotal trials 5 y postapproval, likelihood of publication correlated with statistically significant results (OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.24–7.06) and larger sample sizes (OR 1.47 per 2-fold increase in sample size, 95% CI 1.15–1.88). Statistically significant results and larger sample sizes were also predictive of publication at 2 y postapproval and in multivariable Cox proportional models for all trials and the subset of pivotal trials.

Conclusions

Over half of all supporting trials for FDA-approved drugs remained unpublished ≥ 5 y after approval. Pivotal trials and trials with statistically significant results and larger sample sizes are more likely to be published. Selective reporting of trial results exists for commonly marketed drugs. Our data provide a baseline for evaluating publication bias as the new FDA Amendments Act comes into force mandating basic results reporting of clinical trials.     

Health Risk or Resource? Gradual and Independent Association between Self-Rated Health and Mortality Persists Over 30 Years

Background

Poor self-rated health (SRH) is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5–10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors.

Methods

We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥16 years who participated 1977–79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure.

Results

92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980–2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from “excellent” (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1) to “good” (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92–1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01–1.46) to “fair” (1.41, 1.18–1.68; 1.39, 1.14–1.70) to “poor”(1.61, 1.15–2.25; 1.49, 1.07–2.06) to “very poor” (2.85, 1.25–6.51; 1.30, 0.18–9.35). Persons answering the SRH question with “don''t know” (1.87, 1.21–2.88; 1.26, 0.87–1.83) had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up.

Conclusions

SRH is a strong and “dose-dependent” predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than pathogenetic pathways.     

Birth size and breast cancer risk: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 studies

Background

Birth size, perhaps a proxy for prenatal environment, might be a correlate of subsequent breast cancer risk, but findings from epidemiological studies have been inconsistent. We re-analysed individual participant data from published and unpublished studies to obtain more precise estimates of the magnitude and shape of the birth size–breast cancer association.

Methods and Findings

Studies were identified through computer-assisted and manual searches, and personal communication with investigators. Individual participant data from 32 studies, comprising 22,058 breast cancer cases, were obtained. Random effect models were used, if appropriate, to combine study-specific estimates of effect. Birth weight was positively associated with breast cancer risk in studies based on birth records (pooled relative risk [RR] per one standard deviation [SD] [= 0.5 kg] increment in birth weight: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.09) and parental recall when the participants were children (1.02; 95% CI 0.99–1.05), but not in those based on adult self-reports, or maternal recall during the woman''s adulthood (0.98; 95% CI 0.95–1.01) (p for heterogeneity between data sources = 0.003). Relative to women who weighed 3.000–3.499 kg, the risk was 0.96 (CI 0.80–1.16) in those who weighed < 2.500 kg, and 1.12 (95% CI 1.00–1.25) in those who weighed ≥ 4.000 kg (p for linear trend = 0.001) in birth record data. Birth length and head circumference from birth records were also positively associated with breast cancer risk (pooled RR per one SD increment: 1.06 [95% CI 1.03–1.10] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.03–1.15], respectively). Simultaneous adjustment for these three birth size variables showed that length was the strongest independent predictor of risk. The birth size effects did not appear to be confounded or mediated by established breast cancer risk factors and were not modified by age or menopausal status. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer per 100 women by age 80 y in the study populations was estimated to be 10.0, 10.0, 10.4, and 11.5 in those who were, respectively, in the bottom, second, third, and top fourths of the birth length distribution.

Conclusions

This pooled analysis of individual participant data is consistent with birth size, and in particular birth length, being an independent correlate of breast cancer risk in adulthood.     

Revision rates after primary hip and knee replacement in England between 2003 and 2006

Background

Hip and knee replacement are some of the most frequently performed surgical procedures in the world. Resurfacing of the hip and unicondylar knee replacement are increasingly being used. There is relatively little evidence on their performance. To study performance of joint replacement in England, we investigated revision rates in the first 3 y after hip or knee replacement according to prosthesis type.

Methods and Findings

We linked records of the National Joint Registry for England and Wales and the Hospital Episode Statistics for patients with a primary hip or knee replacement in the National Health Service in England between April 2003 and September 2006. Hospital Episode Statistics records of succeeding admissions were used to identify revisions for any reason. 76,576 patients with a primary hip replacement and 80,697 with a primary knee replacement were included (51% of all primary hip and knee replacements done in the English National Health Service). In hip patients, 3-y revision rates were 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%–1.1%) with cemented, 2.0% (1.7%–2.3%) with cementless, 1.5% (1.1%–2.0% CI) with “hybrid” prostheses, and 2.6% (2.1%–3.1%) with hip resurfacing (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after hip resurfacing were increased especially in women. In knee patients, 3-y revision rates were 1.4% (1.2%–1.5% CI) with cemented, 1.5% (1.1%–2.1% CI) with cementless, and 2.8% (1.8%–4.5% CI) with unicondylar prostheses (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after knee replacement strongly decreased with age.

Interpretation

Overall, about one in 75 patients needed a revision of their prosthesis within 3 y. On the basis of our data, consideration should be given to using hip resurfacing only in male patients and unicondylar knee replacement only in elderly patients.     

Breastfeeding and infant temperament at age three months

Background & Methods

To examine the relationship between breastfeeding and maternally-rated infant temperament at age 3 months, 316 infants in the prospective Cambridge Baby Growth Study, UK had infant temperament assessed at age 3 months by mothers using the Revised Infant Behavior Questionnaire, which produces scores for three main dimensions of temperament derived from 14 subscales. Infant temperament scores were related to mode of infant milk feeding at age 3 months (breast only; formula milk only; or mixed) with adjustment for infant''s age at assessment and an index of deprivation.

Results

Infant temperament dimension scores differed across the three infant feeding groups, but appeared to be comparable between exclusive breast-fed and mixed-fed infants. Compared to formula milk-fed infants, exclusive breast-fed and mixed-fed infants were rated as having lower impulsivity and positive responses to stimulation (adjusted mean [95% CI] “Surgency/Extraversion” in formula-fed vs. mixed-fed vs. breast-fed groups: 4.3 [4.2–4.5] vs. 4.0 [3.8–4.1] vs. 4.0 [3.9–4.1]; p-heterogeneity = 0.0006), lower ability to regulate their own emotions (“Orienting/Regulation”: 5.1 [5.0–5.2], vs. 4.9 [4.8–5.1] vs. 4.9 [4.8–5.0]; p = 0.01), and higher emotional instability (“Negative affectivity”: 2.8 [2.6–2.9] vs. 3.0 [2.8–3.1] vs. 3.0 [2.9–3.1]; p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Breast and mixed-fed infants were rated by their mothers as having more challenging temperaments in all three dimensions; particular subscales included greater distress, less smiling, laughing, and vocalisation, and lower soothability. Increased awareness of the behavioural dynamics of breastfeeding, a better expectation of normal infant temperament and support to cope with difficult infant temperament could potentially help to promote successful breastfeeding.     

Schistosomiasis,Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis,and Sociodemographic Factors Influence Quality of Life of Adults in C?te d'Ivoire

Background

Burden of disease estimates are widely used for priority setting in public health and disability-adjusted life years are a powerful “currency” nowadays. However, disability weights, which capture the disability incurred by a typical patient of a certain condition, are fundamental to such burden calculation and their determination remains a widely debated issue.

Methodology

A cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted in the recently established Taabo health demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in south-central Côte d''Ivoire, to provide new, population-based evidence on the disability caused by schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Parasitological results from stool, urine, and blood examinations were juxtaposed to quality of life (QoL) questionnaire results from 187 adults. A multivariable linear regression model with stepwise backward elimination was used to identify significant associations, considering also sociodemographic characteristics obtained from the Taabo HDSS database.

Principal Findings

Prevalences for hookworm, Plasmodium spp., Trichuris trichiura, Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni were 39.0%, 18.2%, 2.7%, 2.1% and 2.1%, respectively. S. mansoni and T. trichiura infections of any intensity reduced the participants'' self-rated QoL by 16 points (95% confidence interval (CI): 4–29 points) and 13 points (95% CI: 1–24 points), respectively, on a scale from 0 (worst QoL) to 100 points (best QoL). The only other statistically significant effect was a 1-point (95% CI: 0.1–2 points) increase on the QoL scale per one unit increase in a calculated wealth index.

Conclusions/Significance

We found consistent and significant results on the negative effects of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis on adults'' self-rated QoL, also when taking sociodemographic characteristics into account. Our results warrant further investigation on the disability incurred by helmintic infections and the usefulness of generic QoL questionnaires in this endeavor.     

Investigating helmet promotion for cyclists: results from a randomised study with observation of behaviour, using a semi-automatic video system

Introduction

Half of fatal injuries among bicyclists are head injuries. While helmet use is likely to provide protection, their use often remains rare. We assessed the influence of strategies for promotion of helmet use with direct observation of behaviour by a semi-automatic video system.

Methods

We performed a single-centre randomised controlled study, with 4 balanced randomisation groups. Participants were non-helmet users, aged 18–75 years, recruited at a loan facility in the city of Bordeaux, France. After completing a questionnaire investigating their attitudes towards road safety and helmet use, participants were randomly assigned to three groups with the provision of “helmet only”, “helmet and information” or “information only”, and to a fourth control group. Bikes were labelled with a colour code designed to enable observation of helmet use by participants while cycling, using a 7-spot semi-automatic video system located in the city. A total of 1557 participants were included in the study.

Results

Between October 15th 2009 and September 28th 2010, 2621 cyclists'' movements, made by 587 participants, were captured by the video system. Participants seen at least once with a helmet amounted to 6.6% of all observed participants, with higher rates in the two groups that received a helmet at baseline. The likelihood of observed helmet use was significantly increased among participants of the “helmet only” group (OR = 7.73 [2.09–28.5]) and this impact faded within six months following the intervention. No effect of information delivery was found.

Conclusion

Providing a helmet may be of value, but will not be sufficient to achieve high rates of helmet wearing among adult cyclists. Integrated and repeated prevention programmes will be needed, including free provision of helmets, but also information on the protective effect of helmets and strategies to increase peer and parental pressure.     

Detecting subtle changes in visuospatial executive function and learning in the amnestic variant of mild cognitive impairment

Background and Purpose

Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is a putative prodromal stage of Alzheimer''s disease (AD) characterized by deficits in episodic verbal memory. Our goal in the present study was to determine whether executive dysfunction may also be detectable in individuals diagnosed with aMCI.

Methods

This study used a hidden maze learning test to characterize component processes of visuospatial executive function and learning in a sample of 62 individuals with aMCI compared with 94 healthy controls.

Results

Relative to controls, individuals with aMCI made more exploratory/learning errors (Cohen''s d = .41). Comparison of learning curves revealed that the slope between the first two of five learning trials was four times as steep for controls than for individuals with aMCI (Cohen''s d = .64). Individuals with aMCI also made a significantly greater number of rule-break/error monitoring errors across learning trials (Cohen''s d = .21).

Conclusions

These results suggest that performance on a task of complex visuospatial executive function is compromised in individuals with aMCI, and likely explained by reductions in initial strategy formulation during early visual learning and “on-line” maintenance of task rules.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of "test" versus "treat" patients hospitalized with suspected influenza in Hong Kong

Background

Seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses may cause severe diseases and result in excess hospitalization and mortality in the older and younger adults, respectively. Early antiviral treatment may improve clinical outcomes. We examined potential outcomes and costs of test-guided versus empirical treatment in patients hospitalized for suspected influenza in Hong Kong.

Methods

We designed a decision tree to simulate potential outcomes of four management strategies in adults hospitalized for severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza: “immunofluorescence-assay” (IFA) or “polymerase-chain-reaction” (PCR)-guided oseltamivir treatment, “empirical treatment plus PCR” and “empirical treatment alone”. Model inputs were derived from literature. The average prevalence (11%) of influenza in 2010–2011 (58% being 2009 H1N1) among cases of respiratory infections was used in the base-case analysis. Primary outcome simulated was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) expected (ICER) from the Hong Kong healthcare providers'' perspective.

Results

In base-case analysis, “empirical treatment alone” was shown to be the most cost-effective strategy and dominated the other three options. Sensitivity analyses showed that “PCR-guided treatment” would dominate “empirical treatment alone” when the daily cost of oseltamivir exceeded USD18, or when influenza prevalence was <2.5% and the predominant circulating viruses were not 2009 H1N1. Using USD50,000 as the threshold of willingness-to-pay, “empirical treatment alone” and “PCR-guided treatment” were cost-effective 97% and 3% of time, respectively, in 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations.

Conclusions

During influenza epidemics, empirical antiviral treatment appears to be a cost-effective strategy in managing patients hospitalized with severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza, from the perspective of healthcare providers in Hong Kong.     

Sickness absence due to otoaudiological diagnoses and risk of disability pension: a nationwide Swedish prospective cohort study

Background

Hearing difficulties are a large public health problem. Knowledge is scarce regarding risk of disability pension among people who have been sickness absent due to these difficulties.

Methods

A cohort including all 4,687,756 individuals living in Sweden in 2005, aged 20–64, and not on disability or old-age pension, was followed through 2009. Incidence rate ratios (RR) of disability pension with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

In multivariable models, individuals who had a sick-leave spell due to otoaudiological diagnoses in 2005 had a 1.52-fold (95% CI: 1.43–1.62) increased risk of being granted a disability pension compared to individuals on sick leave due to other diagnoses. Hearing and tinnitus sick-leave diagnoses were associated with risk of disability pension: RR 3.38, 95% CI: 3.04–3.75, and 3.30, 95% CI: 2.95–3.68, respectively. No association was observed between sick leave due to vertigo diagnoses and disability pension whereas otological diagnoses and no sick leave were inversely associated with risk of disability pension compared to non-otoaudiological sick-leave diagnoses. Sick leave due to otoaudiological diagnoses was positively associated with risk of disability pension due to otoaudiological diagnoses and sick leave due to a tinnitus diagnosis was also associated with risk of disability pension due to mental diagnoses. The risk of disability pension among individuals with hearing or tinnitus sick-leave diagnoses was highest in the age group 35–44. Moreover, men had a slightly higher risk.

Conclusion

This large cohort study suggests an increased risk of disability pension among those with sickness absence due to otoaudiological diagnoses, particularly hearing and tinnitus diagnoses, compared to those with sickness absence due to non-otoaudiological diagnoses.     

Similarities and differences in Chinese and Caucasian adults' use of facial cues for trustworthiness judgments

Background

All cultural groups in the world place paramount value on interpersonal trust. Existing research suggests that although accurate judgments of another''s trustworthiness require extensive interactions with the person, we often make trustworthiness judgments based on facial cues on the first encounter. However, little is known about what facial cues are used for such judgments and what the bases are on which individuals make their trustworthiness judgments.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that individuals may use facial attractiveness cues as a “shortcut” for judging another''s trustworthiness due to the lack of other more informative and in-depth information about trustworthiness. Using data-driven statistical models of 3D Caucasian faces, we compared facial cues used for judging the trustworthiness of Caucasian faces by Caucasian participants who were highly experienced with Caucasian faces, and the facial cues used by Chinese participants who were unfamiliar with Caucasian faces. We found that Chinese and Caucasian participants used similar facial cues to judge trustworthiness. Also, both Chinese and Caucasian participants used almost identical facial cues for judging trustworthiness and attractiveness.

Conclusions/Significance

The results suggest that without opportunities to interact with another person extensively, we use the less racially specific and more universal attractiveness cues as a “shortcut” for trustworthiness judgments.     

Alcohol consumption at midlife and successful ageing in women: a prospective cohort analysis in the nurses' health study

Background

Observational studies have documented inverse associations between moderate alcohol consumption and risk of premature death. It is largely unknown whether moderate alcohol intake is also associated with overall health and well-being among populations who have survived to older age. In this study, we prospectively examined alcohol use assessed at midlife in relation to successful ageing in a cohort of US women.

Methods and Findings

Alcohol consumption at midlife was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Subsequently, successful ageing was defined in 13,894 Nurses'' Health Study participants who survived to age 70 or older, and whose health status was continuously updated. “Successful ageing” was considered as being free of 11 major chronic diseases and having no major cognitive impairment, physical impairment, or mental health limitations. Analyses were restricted to the 98.1% of participants who were not heavier drinkers (>45 g/d) at midlife. Of all eligible study participants, 1,491 (10.7%) achieved successful ageing. After multivariable adjustment of potential confounders, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption at midlife was associated with modestly increased odds of successful ageing. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.0 (referent) for nondrinkers, 1.11 (0.96–1.29) for ≤5.0 g/d, 1.19 (1.01–1.40) for 5.1–15.0 g/d, 1.28 (1.03–1.58) for 15.1–30.0 g/d, and 1.24 (0.87–1.76) for 30.1–45.0 g/d. Meanwhile, independent of total alcohol intake, participants who drank alcohol at regular patterns throughout the week, rather than on a single occasion, had somewhat better odds of successful ageing; for example, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.29 (1.01–1.64) and 1.47 (1.14–1.90) for those drinking 3–4 days and 5–7 days per week in comparison with nondrinkers, respectively, whereas the odds ratio was 1.10 (0.94–1.30) for those drinking only 1–2 days per week.

Conclusions

These data suggest that regular, moderate consumption of alcohol at midlife may be related to a modest increase in overall health status among women who survive to older ages. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Quantifying quality of life and disability of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica

Background

The Chinese government lists advanced schistosomiasis as a leading healthcare priority due to its serious health and economic impacts, yet it has not been included in the estimates of schistosomiasis burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Therefore, the quality of life and disability weight (DW) for the advanced cases of schistosomiasis japonica have to be taken into account in the re-estimation of burden of disease due to schistosomiasis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A patient-based quality-of-life evaluation was performed for advanced schistosomiasis japonica. Suspected or officially registered advanced cases in a Schistosoma japonicum-hyperendemic county of the People''s Republic of China (P.R. China) were screened using a short questionnaire and physical examination. Disability and morbidity were assessed in confirmed cases, using the European quality of life questionnaire with an additional cognitive dimension (known as the “EQ-5D plus”), ultrasonography, and laboratory testing. The age-specific DW of advanced schistosomiasis japonica was estimated based on patients'' self-rated health scores on the visual analogue scale of the questionnaire. The relationships between health status, morbidity and DW were explored using multivariate regression models. Of 506 candidates, 215 cases were confirmed as advanced schistosomiasis japonica and evaluated. Most of the patients reported impairments in at least one health dimension, such as pain or discomfort (90.7%), usual activities (87.9%), and anxiety or depression (80.9%). The overall DW was 0.447, and age-specific DWs ranged from 0.378 among individuals aged 30–44 years to 0.510 among the elderly aged ≥60 years. DWs are positively associated with loss of work capacity, psychological abnormality, ascites, and active hepatitis B virus, while splenectomy and high albumin were protective factors for quality of life.

Conclusions/Significance

These patient-preference disability estimates could provide updated data for a revision of the GBD, as well as for evidence-based decision-making in P.R. China''s national schistosomiasis control program.