Risk of subsequent coronary heart disease in patients hospitalized for immune-mediated diseases: a nationwide follow-up study from Sweden

Background

Certain immune-mediated diseases (IMDs), such as rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus, have been linked to cardiovascular disorders. We examined whether there is an association between 32 different IMDs and risk of subsequent hospitalization for coronary heart disease (CHD) related to coronary atherosclerosis in a nationwide follow up study in Sweden.

Methods and Findings

All individuals in Sweden hospitalized with a main diagnosis of an IMD (n = 336,479) without previous or coexisting CHD, between January 1, 1964 and December 31 2008, were followed for first hospitalization for CHD. The reference population was the total population of Sweden. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for CHD were calculated. Overall risk of CHD during the first year after hospitalization for an IMD was 2.92 (95% CI 2.84–2.99). Twenty-seven of the 32 IMDs studied were associated with an increased risk of CHD during the first year after hospitalization. The overall risk of CHD decreased over time, from 1.75 after 1–5 years (95% CI 1.73–1.78), to 1.43 after 5–10 years (95% CI 1.41–1.46) and 1.28 after 10+ years (95% CI 1.26–1.30). Females generally had higher SIRs than males. The IMDs for which the SIRs of CDH were highest during the first year after hospitalization included chorea minor 6.98 (95% CI 1.32–20.65), systemic lupus erythematosus 4.94 (95% CI 4.15–5.83), rheumatic fever 4.65 (95% CI 3.53–6.01), Hashimoto''s thyroiditis 4.30 (95% CI 3.87–4.75), polymyositis/dermatomyositis 3.81 (95% CI 2.62–5.35), polyarteritis nodosa 3.81 (95% CI 2.72–5.19), rheumatoid arthritis 3.72 (95% CI 3.56–3.88), systemic sclerosis 3.44 (95% CI 2.86–4.09), primary biliary cirrhosis 3.32 (95% CI 2.34–4.58), and autoimmune hemolytic anemia 3.17 (95% CI 2.16–4.47).

Conclusions

Most IMDs are associated with increased risk of CHD in the first year after hospital admission. Our findings suggest that many hospitalized IMDs are tightly linked to coronary atherosclerosis.     

Food insufficiency is associated with high-risk sexual behavior among women in Botswana and Swaziland

Background

Both food insufficiency and HIV infection are major public health problems in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the impact of food insufficiency on HIV risk behavior has not been systematically investigated. We tested the hypothesis that food insufficiency is associated with HIV transmission behavior.

Methods and Findings

We studied the association between food insufficiency (not having enough food to eat over the previous 12 months) and inconsistent condom use, sex exchange, and other measures of risky sex in a cross-sectional population-based study of 1,255 adults in Botswana and 796 adults in Swaziland using a stratified two-stage probability design. Associations were examined using multivariable logistic regression analyses, clustered by country and stratified by gender. Food insufficiency was reported by 32% of women and 22% of men over the previous 12 months. Among 1,050 women in both countries, after controlling for respondent characteristics including income and education, HIV knowledge, and alcohol use, food insufficiency was associated with inconsistent condom use with a nonprimary partner (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–2.36), sex exchange (AOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.74–1.93), intergenerational sexual relationships (AOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03–2.08), and lack of control in sexual relationships (AOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.24–2.28). Associations between food insufficiency and risky sex were much attenuated among men.

Conclusions

Food insufficiency is an important risk factor for increased sexual risk-taking among women in Botswana and Swaziland. Targeted food assistance and income generation programs in conjunction with efforts to enhance women''s legal and social rights may play an important role in decreasing HIV transmission risk for women.     

Population-attributable risks for ischemic stroke in a community in South Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Risk factors for ischemic stroke are mostly known, but it is still unclear in most countries, what are their combined population-attributable risk percent (PAR%). In a case-control study the individual odds ratios (ORs) and the individual and combined PAR%, including risk factors not addressed in previous studies were estimated.

Methods

Cases and controls were selected from patients attending to an emergency department. Cases were patients aged with 45 years or more with the first episode of ischemic stroke, characterized by a focal neurological deficit or change in the mental status occurring during the previous 24 hours. Controls, matched to cases by age and gender, were selected from patients without neurological complaints.

Results

133 cases and 272 controls were studied. Odds ratios for ischemic stroke were: atrial fibrillation (27.3; CI 95% 7.5–99.9), left ventricular hypertrophy (20.3; CI 95% 8.8–46.4), history of hypertension (11.2; CI 95% 5.4–23.3), physical inactivity (6.6; CI 95% 3.3–13.1), low levels of HDL-cholesterol (5.0; CI 95%2.8–8.9), heavy smoking (2.8; CI 95% 1.5–5.0), carotid bruit (2.5; CI 95% 1.3–4.6), diabetes (2.4; CI 95% 1.4–4.0) and alcohol abuse (2.1; CI 95% 1.1–4.0), The combination of these risk factors accounted for 98.9% (95% CI; 96.4%–99.7%) of the PAR% for all stroke.

Conclusions

Nine risk factors, easily identified, explain almost 100% of the population attributable risk for ischemic stroke.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Birth size and breast cancer risk: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 studies

Background

Birth size, perhaps a proxy for prenatal environment, might be a correlate of subsequent breast cancer risk, but findings from epidemiological studies have been inconsistent. We re-analysed individual participant data from published and unpublished studies to obtain more precise estimates of the magnitude and shape of the birth size–breast cancer association.

Methods and Findings

Studies were identified through computer-assisted and manual searches, and personal communication with investigators. Individual participant data from 32 studies, comprising 22,058 breast cancer cases, were obtained. Random effect models were used, if appropriate, to combine study-specific estimates of effect. Birth weight was positively associated with breast cancer risk in studies based on birth records (pooled relative risk [RR] per one standard deviation [SD] [= 0.5 kg] increment in birth weight: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.09) and parental recall when the participants were children (1.02; 95% CI 0.99–1.05), but not in those based on adult self-reports, or maternal recall during the woman''s adulthood (0.98; 95% CI 0.95–1.01) (p for heterogeneity between data sources = 0.003). Relative to women who weighed 3.000–3.499 kg, the risk was 0.96 (CI 0.80–1.16) in those who weighed < 2.500 kg, and 1.12 (95% CI 1.00–1.25) in those who weighed ≥ 4.000 kg (p for linear trend = 0.001) in birth record data. Birth length and head circumference from birth records were also positively associated with breast cancer risk (pooled RR per one SD increment: 1.06 [95% CI 1.03–1.10] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.03–1.15], respectively). Simultaneous adjustment for these three birth size variables showed that length was the strongest independent predictor of risk. The birth size effects did not appear to be confounded or mediated by established breast cancer risk factors and were not modified by age or menopausal status. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer per 100 women by age 80 y in the study populations was estimated to be 10.0, 10.0, 10.4, and 11.5 in those who were, respectively, in the bottom, second, third, and top fourths of the birth length distribution.

Conclusions

This pooled analysis of individual participant data is consistent with birth size, and in particular birth length, being an independent correlate of breast cancer risk in adulthood.     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

Socioeconomic status and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: data from the Women's Health Study

Objectives

We prospectively examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) predicts incident type II diabetes (diabetes), a cardiovascular risk equivalent and burgeoning public health epidemic among women.

Methods

Participants include 23,992 women with Hb_A1c levels <6% and no CVD or diabetes at baseline followed from February 1993 to March 2007. SES was measured by education and income while diabetes was self-reported.

Results

Over 12.3 years of follow-up, 1,262 women developed diabetes. In age and race adjusted models, the relative risk of diabetes decreased with increasing education (<2 years of nursing, 2 to <4 years of nursing, bachelor''s degree, master''s degree, and doctorate: 1.0, 0.7 [95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.6–0.8], 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5–0.7), 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4–0.6), 0.4 (95% CI, 0.3–0.5); p_trend<0.001). Adjustment for traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors attenuated this relationship (education: p_trend = 0.96). Similar associations were observed between income categories and diabetes.

Conclusion

Advanced education and increasing income were both inversely associated with incident diabetes even in this relatively well-educated cohort. This relationship was largely explained by behavioral factors, particularly body mass index.     

Ethnicity and cutaneous melanoma in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Over the last century the incidence of cutaneous melanoma has increased worldwide, a trend that has also been observed in Brazil. The identified risk factors for melanoma include the pattern of sun exposure, family history, and certain phenotypic features. In addition, the incidence of melanoma might be influenced by ethnicity. Like many countries, Brazil has high immigration rates and consequently a heterogenous population. However, Brazil is unique among such countries in that the ethnic heterogeneity of its population is primarily attributable to admixture. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of European ethnicity to the risk of cutaneous melanoma in Brazil.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We carried out a hospital-based case-control study in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated 424 hospitalized patients (202 melanoma patients and 222 control patients) regarding phenotypic features, sun exposure, and number of grandparents born in Europe. Through multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found the following variables to be independently associated with melanoma: grandparents born in Europe—Spain (OR = 3.01, 95% CI: 1.03–8.77), Italy (OR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.41–8.57), a Germanic/Slavic country (OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 1.05–8.93), or ≥2 European countries (OR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.06–7.47); eye color—light brown (OR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.14–3.84) and green/blue (OR = 4.62; 95% CI 2.22–9.58); pigmented lesion removal (OR = 3.78; 95% CI: 2.21–6.49); no lifetime sunscreen use (OR = 3.08; 95% CI: 1.03–9.22); and lifetime severe sunburn (OR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.03–3.19).

Conclusions

Our results indicate that European ancestry is a risk factor for cutaneous melanoma. Such risk appears to be related not only to skin type, eye color, and tanning capacity but also to others specific characteristics of European populations introduced in the New World by European immigrants.     

Diabetes with hypertension as risk factors for adult dengue hemorrhagic fever in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 epidemic: a case control study

Background

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage. A number of DHF risk factors had been suggested. However, these risk factors may not be generalized to all populations and epidemics for screening and clinical management of patients at risk of developing DHF. This study explored demographic and comorbidity risk factors for DHF in adult dengue epidemics in Singapore in year 2006 (predominantly serotype 1) and in year 2007–2008 (predominantly serotype 2).

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was conducted with 149 DHF and 326 dengue fever (DF) patients from year 2006, and 669 DHF and 1,141 DF patients from year 2007–2008. Demographic and reported comorbidity data were collected from patients previously. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between DHF and demographic and co-morbidities for year 2006 and year 2007–2008, respectively.

Results

Only Chinese (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–3.56) was independently associated with DHF in year 2006. In contrast, age groups of 30–39 years (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), 40–49 years (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), female (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI:1.28–1.94), Chinese (AOR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.24–2.24), diabetes (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI:1.06–2.97), and diabetes with hypertension (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI:1.18–3.96) were independently associated with DHF in year 2007–2008. Hypertension was proposed to have effect modification on the risk of DHF outcome in dengue patients with diabetes. Chinese who had diabetes with hypertension had 2.1 (95% CI:1.07–4.12) times higher risk of DHF compared with Chinese who had no diabetes and no hypertension.

Conclusions

Adult dengue patients in Singapore who were 30–49 years, Chinese, female, had diabetes or diabetes with hypertension were at greater risk of developing DHF during epidemic of predominantly serotype 2. These risk factors can be used to guide triaging of patients who require closer clinical monitoring and early hospitalization in Singapore, when confirmed in more studies.     

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.     

Barriers to Participation in a Patient Satisfaction Survey: Who Are We Missing?

Background

A common weakness of patient satisfaction surveys is a suboptimal participation rate. Some patients may be unable to participate, because of language barriers, physical limitations, or mental problems. As the role of these barriers is poorly understood, we aimed to identify patient characteristics that are associated with non-participation in a patient satisfaction survey.

Methodology

At the University Hospitals of Geneva, Switzerland, a patient satisfaction survey is regularly conducted among all adult patients hospitalized for >24 hours on a one-month period in the departments of internal medicine, geriatrics, surgery, neurosciences, psychiatry, and gynaecology-obstetrics. In order to assess the factors associated with non-participation to the patient satisfaction survey, a case-control study was conducted among patients selected for the 2005 survey. Cases (non respondents, n = 195) and controls (respondents, n = 205) were randomly selected from the satisfaction survey, and information about potential barriers to participation was abstracted in a blinded fashion from the patients'' medical and nursing charts.

Principal Findings

Non-participation in the satisfaction survey was independently associated with the presence of a language barrier (odds ratio [OR] 4.53, 95% confidence interval [CI95%]: 2.14–9.59), substance abuse (OR 3.75, CI95%: 1.97–7.14), cognitive limitations (OR 3.72, CI95%: 1.64–8.42), a psychiatric diagnosis (OR 1.99, CI95%: 1.23–3.23) and a sight deficiency (OR 2.07, CI95%: 0.98–4.36). The odds ratio for non-participation increased gradually with the number of predictors.

Conclusions

Five barriers to non-participation in a mail survey were identified. Gathering patient feedback through mailed surveys may lead to an under-representation of some patient subgroups.     

Renal function and risk factors of moderate to severe chronic kidney disease in Golestan Province, northeast of Iran

Introduction

The incidence of end-stage renal disease is increasing worldwide. Earlier studies reported high prevalence rates of obesity and hypertension, two major risk factors of chronic kidney disease (CKD), in Golestan Province, Iran. We aimed to investigate prevalence of moderate to severe CKD and its risk factors in the region.

Methods

Questionnaire data and blood samples were collected from 3591 participants (≥18 years old) from the general population. Based on serum creatinine levels, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated.

Results

High body mass index (BMI) was common: 35.0% of participants were overweight (BMI 25–29.9) and 24.5% were obese (BMI ≥30). Prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (CKD–S3-5), i.e., GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m², was 4.6%. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the risk of CKD–S3-5 associated with every year increase in age was 1.13 (1.11–1.15). Men were at lower risk of CKD–S3-5 than women (OR = 0.28; 95% CI 0.18–0.45). Obesity (OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.04–3.05) and self-reported diabetes (OR = 1.70; 95% CI 1.00–2.86), hypertension (OR = 3.16; 95% CI 2.02–4.95), ischemic heart disease (OR = 2.73; 95% CI 1.55–4.81), and myocardial infarction (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.14–6.32) were associated with increased risk of CKD–S3-5 in the models adjusted for age and sex. The association persisted for self-reported hypertension even after adjustments for BMI and history of diabetes (OR = 2.85; 95% CI 1.77–4.59).

Conclusion

A considerable proportion of inhabitants in Golestan have CKD–S3-5. Screening of individuals with major risk factors of CKD, in order to early detection and treatment of impaired renal function, may be plausible. Further studies on optimal risk prediction of future end-stage renal disease and effectiveness of any screening program are warranted.     

Living alone and alcohol-related mortality: a population-based cohort study from Finland

Background

Social isolation and living alone are increasingly common in industrialised countries. However, few studies have investigated the potential public health implications of this trend. We estimated the relative risk of death from alcohol-related causes among individuals living alone and determined whether this risk changed after a large reduction in alcohol prices.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based natural experimental study of a change in the price of alcohol that occurred because of new laws enacted in Finland in January and March of 2004, utilising national registers. The data are based on an 11% sample of the Finnish population aged 15–79 y supplemented with an oversample of deaths. The oversample covered 80% of all deaths during the periods January 1, 2000–December 31, 2003 (the four years immediately before the price reduction of alcohol), and January 1, 2004–December 31, 2007 (the four years immediately after the price reduction). Alcohol-related mortality was defined using both underlying and contributory causes of death. During the 8-y follow-up about 18,200 persons died due to alcohol-related causes. Among married or cohabiting people the increase in alcohol-related mortality was small or non-existing between the periods 2000–2003 and 2004–2007, whereas for those living alone, this increase was substantial, especially in men and women aged 50–69 y. For liver disease in men, the most common fatal alcohol-related disease, the age-adjusted risk ratio associated with living alone was 3.7 (95% confidence interval 3.3, 4.1) before and 4.9 (95% CI 4.4, 5.4) after the price reduction (p<0.001 for difference in risk ratios). In women, the corresponding risk ratios were 1.7 (95% CI 1.4, 2.1) and 2.4 (95% CI 2.0, 2.9), respectively (p ≤ 0.01). Living alone was also associated with other mortality from alcohol-related diseases (range of risk ratios 2.3 to 8.0) as well as deaths from accidents and violence with alcohol as a contributing cause (risk ratios between 2.1 and 4.7), both before and after the price reduction.

Conclusions

Living alone is associated with a substantially increased risk of alcohol-related mortality, irrespective of gender, socioeconomic status, or the specific cause of death. The greater availability of alcohol in Finland after legislation-instituted price reductions in the first three months of 2004 increased in particular the relative excess in fatal liver disease among individuals living alone. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study

Background

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.

Results

69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model''s average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge''s g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge''s g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78).

Conclusions

The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.     

Controlling endemic cholera with oral vaccines

Background

Although advances in rehydration therapy have made cholera a treatable disease with low case-fatality in settings with appropriate medical care, cholera continues to impose considerable mortality in the world''s most impoverished populations. Internationally licensed, killed whole-cell based oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been available for over a decade, but have not been used for the control of cholera. Recently, these vaccines were shown to confer significant levels of herd protection, suggesting that the protective potential of these vaccines has been underestimated and that these vaccines may be highly effective in cholera control when deployed in mass immunization programs. We used a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the possibility of controlling endemic cholera with OCVs.

Methods and Findings

We construct a large-scale, stochastic cholera transmission model of Matlab, Bangladesh. We find that cholera transmission could be controlled in endemic areas with 50% coverage with OCVs. At this level of coverage, the model predicts that there would be an 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] 72%–98%) reduction in cholera cases among the unvaccinated, and a 93% (95% CI 82%–99%) reduction overall in the entire population. Even a more modest coverage of 30% would result in a 76% (95% CI 44%–95%) reduction in cholera incidence for the population area covered. For populations that have less natural immunity than the population of Matlab, 70% coverage would probably be necessary for cholera control, i.e., an annual incidence rate of ≤ 1 case per 1,000 people in the population.

Conclusions

Endemic cholera could be reduced to an annual incidence rate of ≤ 1 case per 1,000 people in endemic areas with biennial vaccination with OCVs if coverage could reach 50%–70% depending on the level of prior immunity in the population. These vaccination efforts could be targeted with careful use of ecological data.     

Human rhinovirus infections in rural Thailand: epidemiological evidence for rhinovirus as both pathogen and bystander

Background

We describe human rhinovirus (HRV) detections in SaKaeo province, Thailand.

Methods

From September 1, 2003–August 31, 2005, we tested hospitalized patients with acute lower respiratory illness and outpatient controls without fever or respiratory symptoms for HRVs with polymerase chain reaction and molecularly-typed select HRVs. We compared HRV detection among hospitalized patients and controls and estimated enrollment adjusted incidence.

Results

HRVs were detected in 315 (16%) of 1919 hospitalized patients and 27 (9.6%) of 280 controls. Children had the highest frequency of HRV detections (hospitalized: <1 year: 29%, 1–4 year: 29%, ≥65 years: 9%; controls: <1 year: 24%, 1–4 year: 14%, ≥65 years: 2.8%). Enrollment adjusted hospitalized HRV detection rates were highest among persons aged <1 year (1038/100,000 persons/year), 1–4 years (457), and ≥65 years (71). All three HRV species were identified, HRV-A was the most common species in most age groups including children aged <1 year (61%) and all adult age groups. HRV-C was the most common species in the 1–4 year (51%) and 5–19 year age groups (54%). Compared to controls, hospitalized adults (≥19 years) and children were more likely to have HRV detections (odds ratio [OR]: 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 15.8; OR: 2.0, CI: 1.2, 3.3, respectively) and hospitalized children were more likely to have HRV-A (OR 1.7, CI: 0.8, 3.5) or HVR-C (OR 2.7, CI: 1.2, 5.9) detection.

Conclusions

HRV rates were high among hospitalized children and the elderly but asymptomatic children also had substantial HRV detection. HRV (all species), and HRV-A and HRV-C detections were epidemiologically-associated with hospitalized illness. Treatment or prevention modalities effective against HRV could reduce hospitalizations due to HRV in Thailand.     

Attitudes toward and uptake of H1N1 vaccine among health care workers during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

Background

Though recommended by many and mandated by some, influenza vaccination rates among health care workers, even in pandemics, remain below optimal levels. The objective of this study was to assess vaccination uptake, attitudes, and distinguishing characteristics (including doctor-nurse differences) of health care workers who did and did not receive the pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in late 2009.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In early 2010 we mailed a self-administered survey to 800 physicians and 800 nurses currently licensed and practicing in Minnesota. 1,073 individuals responded (cooperation rate: 69%). 85% and 62% of Minnesota physicians and nurses, respectively, reported being vaccinated. Accurately estimating the risk of vaccine side effects (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5–2.7), agreeing with a professional obligation to be vaccinated (OR 10.1; 95% CI 7.1–14.2), an ethical obligation to follow public health authorities'' recommendations (OR 9.9; 95% CI 6.6–14.9), and laws mandating pandemic vaccination (OR 3.1; 95% CI 2.3–4.1) were all independently associated with receiving the H1N1 influenza vaccine.

Conclusions/Significance

While a majority of health care workers in one midwestern state reported receiving the pandemic H1N1 vaccine, physicians and nurses differed significantly in vaccination uptake. Several key attitudes and perceptions may influence health care workers'' decisions regarding vaccination. These data inform how states might optimally enlist health care workers'' support in achieving vaccination goals during a pandemic.     

Elevated risk for HIV infection among men who have sex with men in low- and middle-income countries 2000-2006: a systematic review

Background

Recent reports of high HIV infection rates among men who have sex with men (MSM) from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the former Soviet Union (FSU) suggest high levels of HIV transmission among MSM in low- and middle-income countries. To investigate the global epidemic of HIV among MSM and the relationship of MSM outbreaks to general populations, we conducted a comprehensive review of HIV studies among MSM in low- and middle-income countries and performed a meta-analysis of reported MSM and reproductive-age adult HIV prevalence data.

Methods and Findings

A comprehensive review of the literature was conducted using systematic methodology. Data regarding HIV prevalence and total sample size was sequestered from each of the studies that met inclusion criteria and aggregate values for each country were calculated. Pooled odds ratio (OR) estimates were stratified by factors including HIV prevalence of the country, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)–classified level of HIV epidemic, geographic region, and whether or not injection drug users (IDUs) played a significant role in given epidemic. Pooled ORs were stratified by prevalence level; very low-prevalence countries had an overall MSM OR of 58.4 (95% CI 56.3–60.6); low-prevalence countries, 14.4 (95% CI 13.8–14.9); and medium- to high-prevalence countries, 9.6 (95% CI 9.0–10.2). Significant differences in ORs for HIV infection among MSM in were seen when comparing low- and middle-income countries; low-income countries had an OR of 7.8 (95% CI 7.2–8.4), whereas middle-income countries had an OR of 23.4 (95% CI 22.8–24.0). Stratifying the pooled ORs by whether the country had a substantial component of IDU spread resulted in an OR of 12.8 (95% CI 12.3–13.4) in countries where IDU transmission was prevalent, and 24.4 (95% CI 23.7–25.2) where it was not. By region, the OR for MSM in the Americas was 33.3 (95% CI 32.3–34.2); 18.7 (95% CI 17.7–19.7) for Asia; 3.8 (95% CI 3.3–4.3) for Africa; and 1.3 (95% CI 1.1–1.6) for the low- and middle-income countries of Europe.

Conclusions

MSM have a markedly greater risk of being infected with HIV compared with general population samples from low- and middle-income countries in the Americas, Asia, and Africa. ORs for HIV infection in MSM are elevated across prevalence levels by country and decrease as general population prevalence increases, but remain 9-fold higher in medium–high prevalence settings. MSM from low- and middle-income countries are in urgent need of prevention and care, and appear to be both understudied and underserved.     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.