Dynamics of the public concern and risk communication program implementation

Abstract

The public concern about electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure varies due to different reasons. A part of them are connected with the better and higher quality of information that people receive from science, media, Internet, social networks, industry, but others are based on good communication programs performed by the responsible institutions, administration and persons. Especially, in Bulgaria, public concern follows interesting changes, some of them in correlation with the European processes of concern, but others following the economic and political processes in the country. Here, we analyze the dynamics of the public concern over the last 10 years. Our explanation of the decrease of the people’s complaints against EMF exposure from base stations for mobile communication is as a result of our risk communication program that is in implementation for >10 years.     

Contemplating Risk Assessment: A Critique of NRC (1983, 1996)

Assessing risks involves developing predictive mathematical models, using interpretations of data that are based on scientific assumptions or theories and knowledge of how the data were created. The predictions are used for developing strategies that affect many people in society. Often, it is sufficient that the models that are used are justifiable by a well-accepted set of assumptions or theories, reflecting the state-of-the art science at the time. However, this does not ensure that the “best” decision would be made, nor does it ensure that the decision processes would be fair by ensuring that concerned and affected individuals would be able to participate, effectively presenting arguments on their own behalf. Because of these concerns, procedures of risk analysis, including the management of the process, have been written about, for example, in a National Research Council (NRC 1996 NRC. 1996. Understanding Risk, Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, Washington, DC, , USA: National Academy Press.  [Google Scholar]) publication, with the intention of getting stakeholders (interested participants) more involved in the risk analysis process. This publication suggests that Risk Characterization be expanded to include an active participation of stakeholders. Such an expansion would affect the risk assessor's approach toward science compared to the present approach, as implied in the seminal NRC (1983) NRC (National Research Council). 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, Washington, DC, , USA: National Academy Press.  [Google Scholar] publication. Both of these NRC publications have had great influence on the development of risk analysis management and policy in the United States and elsewhere. Subsequent risk assessment guidance documents have generally relied heavily on these publications, but have focused mainly on managerial attitudes (or policy) toward the uncertainty that is inherent in risk assessment and in communicating to the public the risk assessment conclusions and decisions made from them. Subsequent documents have not, unlike NRC (1996) NRC. 1996. Understanding Risk, Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, Washington, DC, , USA: National Academy Press.  [Google Scholar], focused on the risk assessors' attitude toward science inference that would better help ensure that risk assessments contain the type of information that could be used to empower stakeholders. Thus, in this Perspective article I focus on the two NRC “foundation documents,” identifying and contrasting two types of approaches toward science, one narrow and the other expansive. The latter approach is designed to increase stakeholders' involvement more than the former. The features of the expansive approach include a contemplative method toward science, where the risk assessor does not express opinions or take a stand regarding the scientific material, but rather considers many possibilities, presents discussions that include direct challenges to assumptions, and uses falsification principles for excluding theories.     

Safety,Risk and the Precautionary Principle: Rethinking Precautionary Approaches to the Regulation of Transgenic Plants

Operationalizing the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety will require resolving disputes about the meaning of the term 'precautionary approach' in the treaty text. Although the terms precautionary approach and precautionary principle have been referred to in the regulation of transgenic plants for nearly a decade, no customary expectation of what actions either requires has developed. If specific obligations for regulators, regulated entities, or both are not established, compliance will be impossible. This essay examines various interpretations of the precautionary principle, discusses their shortcomings, and suggests a way to rethink the regulation of transgenic plants that focuses on genuine uncertainty. Transgenic plants with familiar phenotypes should be subject to considerably less regulatory scrutiny than those whose risks are genuinely unknown, or known to pose heightened risk.     

The Causal Analysis Framework: Refining Approaches and Expanding Multidisciplinary Applications

This series of articles provides perspectives and recent case examples reflective of the growing interest in and need for formal causal analysis procedures that narrow the uncertainties associated with understanding cause and effect relationships in environmental and health matters. That understanding is important for guiding prevention, remediation, and/or restoration efforts pertaining to environmental stressors. A defensible establishment or refutation of causes is often needed to support legal opinions and/or reach decisions on specific regulatory actions. For complex environmental and health matters, the ability to support cause and effect relationships to a reasonable degree of certainty depends not only on the existence of the relationships but also on the analyst's ability to examine alternative possibilities and to use available evidence to support scientific opinion. Formal casual analyses have evolved to provide analysts with organized frameworks for weighing evidence and decreasing the likelihood of missing important aspects of cause and effect relationships as problems become increasingly complex and less familiar. In this perspectives series, the causal analysis method is explored through additional examination of the underlying philosophies and history of approaches that serve as the foundation of what we consider causal analysis today. In addition, examples of applied causal analysis provide insights into the challenges and benefits of a well thought out causal analysis.     

山地社区土地资源可持续管理评估

从联合国粮农组织提出的土地资源可持续管理目标出发 ,采用层次分析法 (AHP) ,以西双版纳地区爱尼族大卡老寨为研究点 ,选择 4 1个因素作为参评变量 ,建立区域土地可持续管理评价指标体系。评估结果表明 ,目前大卡老寨的土地经营管理仍处于初步可持续管理的前期阶段。主要因为土地生产力过低 ,其他保护性、安全性、生产性均处于较低水平。作者针对提出了改变土地经营模式等参考建议 :1发展生态农业模式 ,提高土地生产率 ;2应用科技成果 ,提高良种普及率 ;3保护耕地 ,推进规模经营 ;4充分发挥森林的经济、生态和社会效益 ;5提高人口素质 ,改变就业结构     

The Science and Philosophy of a Method for Assessing Environmental Causes

When an environmental impairment has been identified, it becomes necessary to identify the cause so that an appropriate action can be planned. However, causation is difficult to establish—both conceptually and in practice. To ensure that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) method for causal assessment is appropriate and defensible, we reviewed concepts of causation from philosophers, statisticians, epidemiologists, and others. This article summarizes the results of that review and explains how it relates to the USEPA's method. We include a five-step process: (1) identify alternative candidate causes; (2) logically eliminate when possible; (3) diagnose when possible; (4) analyze the strength of evidence for remaining candidate causes; and (5) identify the most likely cause. We also encourage three practices: (1) use a consistent process; (2) do not claim proof of causation; and (3) document the evidence and inferences. This approach allows assessors to identify the most likely cause or, failing that, to reduce the set of possible causes and identify information needs for another iteration of causal assessment.     

Special report of the Massachusetts weight‐of‐evidence workgroup A weight‐of‐evidence approach for evaluating ecological risks

Weight‐of‐evidence is the process by which multiple measurement endpoints are related to an assessment endpoint to evaluate whether significant risk of harm is posed to the environment. In this paper, a methodology is offered for reconciling or balancing multiple lines of evidence pertaining to an assessment endpoint. Weight‐of‐evidence is reflected in three characteristics of measurement endpoints: (a) the weight assigned to each measurement endpoint; (b) the magnitude of response observed in the measurement endpoint; and (c) the concurrence among outcomes of multiple measurement endpoints. First, weights are assigned to measurement endpoints based on attributes related to: (a) strength of association between assessment and measurement endpoints; (b) data quality; and (c) study design and execution. Second, the magnitude of response in the measurement endpoint is evaluated with respect to whether the measurement endpoint indicates the presence or absence of harm; as well as the magnitude. Third, concurrence among measurement endpoints is evaluated by plotting the findings of the two preceding steps on a matrix for each measurement endpoint evaluated. The matrix allows easy visual examination of agreements or divergences among measurement endpoints, facilitating interpretation of the collection of measurement endpoints with respect to the assessment endpoint. A qualitative adaptation of the weight‐of‐evidence approach is also presented.     

三种生物质能源植物组织的乙醇提取液对烟粉虱生物活性的影响

为了探讨蓖麻、海滨锦葵等生物质能源植物组织的抽提物作为植物保护剂的可行性,用蓖麻种子、蓖麻叶片、海滨锦葵叶片等生物质能源植物组织的乙醇粗提物处理烟粉虱成虫,4、24、48、72和96 h后测定其体内的谷胱甘肽转移酶和羧酸酯酶活性,并利用Y型嗅觉仪测定烟粉虱对3种生物质能源植物组织的乙醇粗提物的嗅觉反应.结果表明:3种生物质能源植物组织的乙醇粗提物对烟粉虱谷胱甘肽转移酶和羧酸酯酶均有明显影响,随着浓度的提高,其作用增强,其中250倍液的作用与1.8%的阿维菌素3000倍液作用相当.3种提取液的250倍液对烟粉虱成虫具有明显的驱避作用,其中蓖麻种子、蓖麻叶片和海滨锦葵叶片等乙醇粗提物的驱避率分别为100.0%、96.7%和79.4%.表明蓖麻种子、蓖麻叶片和海滨锦葵叶片的乙醇粗抽提物对烟粉虱具有驱避作用和其他生物活性.     

污染场地土壤生态风险评估研究进展

随着我国快速城市化以及产业结构的调整,遗留下了大量的污染场地,发展和实施污染场地土壤生态风险评估是进行大规模污染场地修复行动的必要条件。本文围绕污染场地土壤生态风险评估的科学原理、框架构建及技术方法等方面的关键问题: 1)评估框架的场地实际针对性;2)概念模型的不确定性;3)土壤复合污染毒性机制;4)评估终点筛选;5)评估方法和框架构建等展开讨论,指出土壤复合污染的制毒机制,即污染物生物有效性和联合效应是污染场地土壤生态风险评估的关键科学问题。耦合美国环保局四步法和欧盟层级法的“证据-权重法”评估框架适用于野外复杂环境条件下的土壤污染生态风险评估。建议今后重点开展以下5个方面的工作: 1)污染场地土壤生态风险评估技术框架与风险管控技术框架之间的联合;2)概念模型研究;3)基于过程的场地土壤污染物反应运移模型研究;4)场地土壤复合污染生态毒理学机制研究;5)生态系统高水平生态风险评估终点研究。旨在为形成我国本土污染场地土壤生态风险评估技术指南提供理论基础和构架。     

A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Assess,Manage, and Communicate Carcinogenic Risk

A prospective approach to addressing carcinogen risk assessment is presented. Fuzzy reasoning is used to assess carcinogenic risk, characterize it, and control it. The approach is inspired by fuzzy control inference that deploys linguistic intelligence as input to a system described numerically through membership functions. Fuzzy-based reasoning to estimate carcinogenic risk provides several advantages as discussed here. The fuzzy reasoning approach has more capabilities than traditional models in dealing with risk agents that are probably carcinogens, possibly carcinogens, not classifiable as carcinogens, and probably not carcinogens. Input–output surfaces are presented for each hazard group to enable fast inferencing. Then, a hypothetical example is given to compare the results of traditional methods and the fuzzy-based approach to estimating the risk of a carcinogen to a human population. Results show similarity in risk characterization with less input information to the fuzzy-based approach. Fuzzy reasoning characterizes risk in more explicit and easy to grasp terms. Two outputs of the inferencing system are risk characterization and risk control or remediation.     

Nematode Damage Functions: The Problems of Experimental and Sampling Error

The development and use of pest damage functions involves measurement and experimental errors associated with cultural, environmental, and distributional factors. Damage predictions are more valuable if considered with associated probability. Collapsing population densities into a geometric series of population classes allows a pseudo-replication removal of experimental and sampling error in damage function development. Recognition of the nature of sampling error for aggregated populations allows assessment of probability associated with the population estimate. The product of the probabilities incorporated in the damage function and in the population estimate provides a basis for risk analysis of the yield loss prediction and the ensuing management decision.     

A Review of the Use of Pictograms for Communicating Pesticide Hazards and Safety Instructions: Implications for EU Policy

The literature was reviewed to assess the understanding and interpretation of pictograms used in pesticide exposure risk communication, and to assess the results in the context of the new European Union (EU) regulatory context for the sustainable use of pesticides. The results indicate that the understanding of pictograms used on pesticide labels by workers and operators is generally low. Standardized approaches, contrary to their claims, are not easily understandable, culturally neutral, or universally understood. Although there is scope for the greater use of pictograms in training, it is important to stress that they should never replace the full and frequent verbal training in a language understood by the trainee. They can, however, be used to complement training, facilitate recall, and encourage compliance. While the policy affecting the handling, labeling, and use of pesticides is applied across the EU, there has been no analysis of the different types of pictograms that have been used in the European context, nor the different ways that they are employed (e.g., on labels, on signs, during training), nor understanding of their meaning by European workers and operators. Furthermore, the implications for risk with residents and bystanders are less clear than for workers and operators.     

The West Indies as a laboratory of biogeography and evolution

Islands have long provided material and inspiration for the study of evolution and ecology. The West Indies are complex historically and geographically, providing a rich backdrop for the analysis of colonization, diversification and extinction of species. They are sufficiently isolated to sustain endemic forms and close enough to sources of colonists to develop a dynamic interaction with surrounding continental regions. The Greater Antilles comprise old fragments of continental crust, some very large; the Lesser Antilles are a more recent volcanic island arc, and the low-lying Bahama Islands are scattered on a shallow oceanic platform. Dating of island lineages using molecular methods indicates over-water dispersal of most inhabitants of the West Indies, although direct connections with what is now southern Mexico in the Early Tertiary, and subsequent land bridges or stepping stone islands linking to Central and South America might also have facilitated colonization. Species-area relationships within the West Indies suggest a strong role for endemic radiations and extinction in shaping patterns of diversity. Diversification is promoted by opportunities for allopatric divergence between islands, or within the large islands of the Greater Antilles, with a classic example provided by the Anolis lizards. The timing of colonization events using molecular clocks permits analysis of colonization-extinction dynamics by means of species accumulation curves. These indicate low rates of colonization and extinction for reptiles and amphibians in the Greater Antilles, with estimated average persistence times of lineages in the West Indies exceeding 30Myr. Even though individual island populations of birds might persist an average of 2Myr on larger islands in the Lesser Antilles, recolonization from within the archipelago appears to maintain avian lineages within the island chain indefinitely. Birds of the Lesser Antilles also provide evidence of a mass extinction event within the past million years, emphasizing the time-heterogeneity of historical processes. Geographical dynamics are matched by ecological changes in the distribution of species within islands over time resulting from adaptive radiation and shifts in habitat, often following repeatable patterns. Although extinction is relatively infrequent under natural conditions, changes in island environments as a result of human activities have exterminated many populations and others--especially old, endemic species--remain vulnerable. Conservation efforts are strengthened by recognition of aesthetic, cultural and scientific values of the unique flora and fauna of the West Indies.     

The Weight of Evidence Does Not Support the Listing of Styrene as “Reasonably Anticipated to be a Human Carcinogen” in NTP's Twelfth Report on Carcinogens

Styrene was listed as “reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen” in the twelfth edition of the National Toxicology Program's Report on Carcinogens based on what we contend are erroneous findings of limited evidence of carcinogenicity in humans, sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in experimental animals, and supporting mechanistic data. The epidemiology studies show no consistent increased incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer. In animal studies, increased incidence rates of mostly benign tumors have been observed only in certain strains of one species (mice) and at one tissue site (lung). The lack of concordance of tumor incidence and tumor type among animals (even within the same species) and humans indicates that there has been no particular cancer consistently observed among all available studies. The only plausible mechanism for styrene-induced carcinogenesis—a non-genotoxic mode of action that is specific to the mouse lung—is not relevant to humans. As a whole, the evidence does not support the characterization of styrene as “reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen,” and styrene should not be listed in the Report on Carcinogens.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

The release of genetically modified crops into the environment. Part I. Overview of current status and regulations

In the past 6 years, the global area of commercially grown, genetically modified (GM) crops has increased more than 30-fold to over 52 million hectares. The number of countries involved has more than doubled. Especially in developing countries, the GM crop area is anticipated to increase rapidly in the coming years. Despite this high adoption rate and future promises, there is a multitude of concerns about the impact of GM crops on the environment. Regulatory approaches in Europe and North America are essentially different. In the EU, it is based on the process of making GM crops; in the US, on the characteristics of the GM product. Many other countries are in the process of establishing regulation based on either system or a mixture. Despite these differences, the information required for risk assessment tends to be similar. Each risk assessment considers the possibility, probability and consequence of harm on a case-by-case basis. For GM crops, the impact of non-use should be added to this evaluation. It is important that the regulation of risk should not turn into the risk of regulation. The best and most appropriate baseline for comparison when performing risk assessment on GM crops is the impact of plants developed by traditional breeding. The latter is an integral and accepted part of agriculture.     

The Importance of LCAs—Warts and All

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a new method for exploring the environmental implications of human action. Like all methods, it is analytically limited and consequently it must be used with caution. Recent papers have criticized LCA and caution against its use in all but a few narrow applications. Even while accepting many of these arguments, this article argues that LCAs, like other analytic frameworks used in the policy and planning domains, have important uses in shaping the processes by which both products and policies are designed. The arguments made against the use of LCAs omit comparisons to realistic appraisals of alternative and competing methods of environmental assessment.     

云南省红豆杉资源的分布,利用现状与保护和可持续利用

红豆杉属（ＴａｘｕｓＬ．）植物是提取抗癌新药紫杉醇（ｔａｘｏｌ）的原料,在云南省有２种１变种,分布范围较广,但多散生,野生数量计有３５４０９２０株。近年来,红豆杉资源的开发利用研究进展较快,但资源的破坏和浪费严重,加之该植物生长缓慢,对生境的要求高,营造原料林困难,供求矛盾十分突出,为此提出了红豆杉资源的保护和可持续利用对策。     

再生(污)水灌溉生态风险与可持续利用

作为一个农业大国,水资源贫乏及地域分布不均匀造成了我国严重的农业用水危机。为缓解我国农业用水危机,污水灌溉及再生水灌溉已成为解决农业灌溉水源不足的一项重要措施。在总结污水灌溉及再生水灌溉生态风险的基础上,针对国内研究现状,分析了我国再生水灌溉利用的可行性。研究发现,再生水灌溉的污染风险远小于污水灌溉,且再生水灌溉还具有回用成本低、减少农作物生产成本等经济效益,以及减少污染物向水环境中排放、改善土壤质量等环境效益。与污水灌溉相比再生水在农业灌溉上具有较大的应用前景,应加大其推广与应用的力度。最后,根据国内外的研究现状,提出了一些再生水灌溉可持续管理措施及其安全利用的相关建议。