Global Environmental Change and Population Health: Progress and Challenges

Escalating global environmental change (GEC) over the past century has been driven largely by rapid industrialization, population growth, overconsumption of natural resources, and associated waste disposal challenges, as well as the inappropriate uses of technology. These changes are already having and will increasingly continue to have significant impacts on human health and well-being. How to tackle these issues is an important challenge to scientists, policy-makers, and the general public. Scientific consensus now exists that GEC and population health are linked, even though the details and mechanisms underlying this link remain to be both explicated and quantified. In this article we provide an overview of progress and challenges in the area of GEC and population health since the late 1980s, highlighting some of the main landmarks in this area and recommending directions for future research.     

Understanding and Managing the Risks to Health and Environment from Global Atmospheric Change: A Synthesis

The global atmosphere is changing. Anthropogenic activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases and releasing synthetic compounds that deplete stratospheric ozone and increase UV-B radiation. Changes of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during the past century strongly suggest that we are now in a period of rapid global warming relative to the past millennium. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are absorbing outgoing infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere, warming the troposphere and cooling the lower stratosphere. Research is beginning to indicate that losses of stratospheric ozone and increases of greenhouse gases are interdependent. Increased greenhouse gases have been implicated in the observed strengthening of stratospheric wind vortices around both poles, in turn setting the stage for further depletion of ozone and increases in UV-B radiation. Although the uncertainties are still large enough to make it difficult to assess health and ecological risks, decisions must be made. Research on indicators of risks to human health and the environment can help reduce the uncertainties in these risks and shorten the time between recognizing the risks of atmospheric change and taking concrete mitigative and adaptive actions.     

Bioethics and the Framing of Climate Change's Health Risks

Cheryl Cox MacPherson recently argued, in an article for this journal, that ‘Climate Change is a Bioethics Problem’. This article elaborates on that position, particularly highlighting bioethicists' potential ability to help reframe the current climate change discourse to give more attention to its health risks. This reframing process is especially important because of the looming problem of climate change skepticism. Recent empirical evidence from science framing experiments indicates that the public reacts especially positively to climate change messages framed in public health terms, and bioethicists are particularly well positioned to contribute their expertise to the process of carefully developing and communicating such messages. Additionally, as climate framing research and practice continue, it will be important for bioethicists to contribute to the creation of that project's nascent ethical standards. The discourse surrounding antibiotic resistance is posited as an example that can lend insight into how communicating a public health‐framed message, including the participation of bioethicists, can help to override public skepticism about the findings of politically contentious scientific fields.     

Climate Change,Risks and Contaminants: A Perspective from Studying the Arctic

The Arctic faces threats from climate change and contaminants. Together, these two threats are likely to present surprises centered around the zero-degree isotherm because the phase change of water has enormous potential to affect contaminant transport and transfer, and biological distribution and stress. Particularly at risk are top aquatic predators, migratory species, and species narrowly adapted to ice. These species are most exposed to contaminants, are most likely to become stressed by climate change, or contain within their life cycles efficient vectors of contaminants and diseases. In the Arctic, mercury presents a special case where risks can be altered at many places in the biogeochemical cycle. Atmospheric mercury depletion events offer one such location; however, the methylation of mercury in aquatic systems appears a far more important and presently neglected component of risk from mercury to Arctic ecosystems. Climate variables alter transport, transfer, and capture of contaminants. Therefore, monitoring for contaminants must be conducted with a systems approach that includes climate-related factors. To ensure that the perception of risk is accurate and that priority risks are addressed first, a closer dialogue between scientists, the public, and public administers is urgently required.     

全球气候变化对野生动物的影响

人类活动所引起的温室气体增加以及由此造成的全球气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注,在全球气候变化对野生动物影响的研究中发现,随着全球气温变暖,野生动物的分布区整体上向北移,物修期提前,动物的繁殖及其种群大小,不同的种类做出不同的响应,有的受益于全球变暖,繁殖增加,成活率高,种群壮大,有的受制于这一变化,种群逐渐缩小甚至面临灭绝的威胁,总的来看,全球气候变暖使更多的野生动物无所适从,因此,加强对气候变化在不同层面上对野生动物影响机制的研究,调整野生动物保护措施,对野生动物及其生境的保护,维持生态系统多样性将显得十分重要。     

Climate,environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.     

Forest Health Monitoring and Forest Inventory Analysis Programs Monitor Climate Change Effects in Forest Ecosystems

The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) and Forest Inventory and Analyses (FIA) programs are integrated biological monitoring systems that use nationally standardized methods to evaluate and report on the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the United States. Many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystems from climate change were also issues addressed in sections of FHM's National Technical Report 1991 to 1998. The integrated FHM and FIA monitoring systems are currently establishing baseline conditions (status and change) in most States for many of the expected effects, and are projected to have full implementation for all States and Territories in 2003. These monitoring systems utilize a broad suite of indicators of key ecosystem components and processes that are responsive to many biotic and abiotic stressors, including those anticipated from climate change. These programs will contribute essential information for many decades for many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystem from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climatic scenarios, and extreme weather events that are probable in the next 30 to 100 years.     

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change

There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical ecosystem conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice.     

关于人类发展的环境容量问题之哲学思考

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Anthropogenic Environmental Change, Mosquito-borne Diseases and Human Health in New Zealand

Anthropogenic environmental change is acknowledged as a primary factor in the emergence of diseases. New Zealand’s history since human occupation has been characterized by extensive anthropogenic disturbance and the establishment of numerous exotic species. As a result, highly modified habitats have been created, which, in conjunction with introduced organisms, provide suitable conditions for the establishment of exotic systems likely to lead to outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease. The interactions among some disturbance factors in the New Zealand environment are discussed, and the potential public health implications.     

Environmental changes impacting Echinococcus transmission: research to support predictive surveillance and control

Echinococcosis, resulting from infection with tapeworms Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, has a global distribution with 2–3 million people affected and 200,000 new cases diagnosed annually. Costs of treatment for humans and economic losses to the livestock industry have been estimated to exceed $2 billion. These figures are likely to be an underestimation given the challenges with its early detection and the lack of mandatory official reporting policies in most countries. Despite this global burden, echinococcosis remains a neglected zoonosis. The importance of environmental factors in influencing the transmission intensity and distribution of Echinococcus spp. is increasingly being recognized. With the advent of climate change and the influence of global population expansion, food insecurity and land‐use changes, questions about the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall patterns, increasing urbanization, deforestation, grassland degradation and overgrazing on zoonotic disease transmission are being raised. This study is the first to comprehensively review how climate change and anthropogenic environmental factors contribute to the transmission of echinococcosis mediated by changes in animal population dynamics, spatial overlap of competent hosts and the creation of improved conditions for egg survival. We advocate rigorous scientific research to establish the causal link between specific environmental variables and echinococcosis in humans and the incorporation of environmental, animal and human data collection within a sentinel site surveillance network that will complement satellite remote‐sensing information. Identifying the environmental determinants of transmission risk to humans will be vital for the design of more accurate predictive models to guide cost‐effective pre‐emptive public health action against echinococcosis.     

Providing information on environmental change: Data management,discovery and access in the UK Environmental Change Network Data Centre

Development of a clearer understanding of the causes and consequences of environmental change is an important issue globally. The consequent demand for objective, reliable and up-to-date environmental information has led to the establishment of long-term integrated environmental monitoring programmes, including the UK's Environmental Change Network (ECN). Databases form the core information resource for such programmes. The UK Environmental Change Network Data Centre manages data on behalf of ECN (as well as other related UK integrated environmental monitoring networks) and provides a robust and integrated system of information management. This paper describes how data are captured – through standardised protocols and data entry systems – as well more recent approaches such as wireless sensors. Data are managed centrally through a database and GIS. Quality control is built in at all levels of the system. Data are then made accessible through a variety of data access methods – through bespoke web interfaces, as well as third-party data portals. This paper describes the informatics approach of the ECN Data Centre which aims to develop a seamless system of data capture, management and data access interfaces to support research.     

Climate effects on offspring sex ratio in a viviparous lizard

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may lead to skewed sex ratios at hatching or birth. However, there are virtually no empirical data on the putative link between climatic parameters and sex ratios from natural populations. 3. We monitored a natural population of viviparous lizards with temperature-dependent sex determination (Niveoscincus ocellatus) over seven field seasons. Sex ratios at birth fluctuated significantly among years and closely tracked thermal conditions in the field, with the proportion of male offspring increasing in colder years. 4. This is the first study to demonstrate the effect of local climatic conditions (e.g. temperature) on offspring sex ratio fluctuations in a free-living population of a viviparous ectotherm. A succession of warmer-than-usual years (as predicted under many climate-change scenarios) likely would generate female-biased sex ratios at birth, while an increase in interannual variation (as also predicted under climate change scenarios) could lead to significant fluctuations in cohort sex ratios. If cohort sex ratio bias at birth leads to adult sex ratio bias, long-term directional changes in thermal conditions may have important effects on population dynamics in this species.     

The Importance of Spatial Effects for Environmental Health Policy and Research

Issues of spatial scale and resolution are intrinsic to efforts aimed at protecting and improving environmental health. Deciding on an appropriate policy or selecting a suitable research design implies a decision, either implicit or explicit, about spatial scale and resolution. This article looks at issues in the context of environmental health, reviews crucial problems and questions, and examines examples of spatial effects on analytical results related to causal inference, disease clustering, and analysis and interpretation of census data. The discussion focuses on the need to consider spatial issues as a key component of informed, well- reasoned decisions about safeguarding environmental health.     

How Will Global Climate Change Affect Risks from Long-Range Transport of Persistent Organic Pollutants?

Climate change and climate variability affect risk from contaminants by changing exposure to chemicals, either through the alteration of pathways or through alteration of environmental concentrating mechanisms. The alteration of pathways is affected by changing the balance between transport and deposition. Although the influence of temperature on multimedia partitioning can be modelled successfully, estimating alteration in other climate components such as distribution and form of precipitation provides a much greater challenge. To understand how climate change affects contaminant concentrations, we distinguish two types of environmental concentrating processes — solvent switching and solvent depletion. The first process, which is simply chemical partitioning, runs spontaneously toward equilibrium. This process alone can explain hemispheric-scale distributions of hexachlorocyclohexane, which partitions strongly into water, and high concentrations of organochlorines at the bottom of aquatic foodwebs. The latter process involves the maintenance of contaminant burdens during the loss of solvent, with the aquatic foodweb providing one of the better-known examples. Solvent reducing processes can produce contaminant concentrations well above thermodynamic equilibrium with a number of important examples provided by phase changes in water (freezing, snow melting). These solvent-reducing processes, which are poorly studied, provide some of the best circumstances for climate change to produce alteration in persistent organic pollutants exposure pathways.     

Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.     

Bioethics and Climate Change: A Response to Macpherson and Valles

Two articles published in Bioethics recently have explored the ways that bioethics can contribute to the climate change debate. Cheryl Cox Macpherson argues that bioethicists can play an important role in the climate change debate by helping the public to better understand the values at stake and the trade‐offs that must be made in individual and social choices, and Sean Valles claims that bioethicists can contribute to the debate by framing the issues in terms of the public health impacts of climate change. While Macpherson and Valles make valid points concerning a potential role for bioethics in the climate change debate, it is important to recognize that much more than ethical analysis and reflection will be needed to significantly impact public attitudes and government policies.     

水培条件下营养元素对枳幼苗根毛发育及根生长的影响

以柑橘砧木枳实生苗为试材,研究水培条件下N、P、 K、Ca、Mg、Fe和Mn等7种营养元素分别缺乏对其根系主根长度、侧根数和主、侧根根毛密度、根毛长度及根毛直径等的影响．结果表明: 水培条件下,不同缺素处理枳实生幼苗的根毛均能生长,但根毛主要集中在近根基段,根尖处分布较少;侧根的根毛密度显著大于主根,而其根毛长度显著小于主根.不同缺素处理对根毛的生长发育影响较大,主根根毛密度为55.0~174.3 条·mm^-2．与对照相比,缺Ca诱发主根的根毛密度、长度显著增加;缺P使主根的根基段、中段及侧根的根毛密度、长度显著增加;缺Fe使主根根尖段根毛密度显著增加,而长度显著降低;缺K使主根、侧根的根毛密度、长度及根毛直径均显著降低;缺Mg使主根根毛长度显著增加．各处理主根的生长较一致;侧根除缺N、Mg处理外,其他处理均出现脱落后再生的现象.