Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975–2003

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975–1984, 1985–1994, 1995–2003) to compare confidence intervals (p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.     

European trends in cervical cancer mortality in relation to national screening programs, 1985–2014

BackgroundCervical cancer is the fourth leading oncological cause of death in women. Variable trends in cervical cancer mortality have been observed across Europe, despite the widespread adoption of screening programs. This variability has previously been attributed to heterogeneity in the quality of screening programs.MethodsAge-standardized cervical cancer death rates for European countries between 1985 and 2014 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Countries were dichotomized based on year of implementation and population invitational coverage of national population-based cervical cancer screening programs. National cervical cancer mortality trends during the study period were compared based on this classification.ResultsDecreasing trends in mortality were observed in all European countries with the specific exceptions of Bulgaria, Greece and Latvia. The highest rates of cervical cancer mortality throughout the study period were in Romania (16.0-14.9/100,000) and the lowest rates in Italy (1.4-1.2/100,000). The greatest percentage decline in mortality was observed in the United Kingdom and the greatest absolute reduction in mortality was seen in Hungary. European countries which implemented a national population-based cervical cancer screening program prior to 2009 demonstrated greater improvements in cervical cancer mortality outcomes compared to those that did not (p = 0.016).ConclusionCervical cancer mortality is improving in most European countries; however, substantial variation remains. Trends in mortality were associated with the time of implementation of national population-based cervical screening programs.     

National politics and international trends: EMBO and the making of molecular biology in Spain (1960–1975)

From the mid-1960s onwards, a set of Spanish molecular biology research groups emerged in Spain. The factors contributing to this included: the return of a group of molecular biologists from their postdoctoral period abroad, the negotiations for the return of Spanish-born Nobel prize winner Severo Ochoa from New York, the negotiations for Spanish membership in the European Conference of Molecular Biology, and national policy towards university reform. As a result, the early molecular biologists’ research groups began to be recognised as research schools by Spanish authorities and postgraduate courses and new research centres for molecular biology were set up. Foreign influence in the whole process was crucial.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Trends in regional cancer mortality in Taiwan 1992–2014

BackgroundAlthough the cancer mortality rate in Taiwan has been declining in recent years, no study has yet reported any regional differences in cancer mortality rates in Taiwan. We hypothesized that regional cancer mortality rates in Taiwan, an ethnically homogeneous society, exhibited no significant variations.MethodsWe investigated the trends in Taiwan regional cancer mortality between 1992 and 2014. We analyzed regional age-standardized cancer mortality rates for lung, liver, colon, stomach, oral, breast, and prostate cancers using the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database and Demographic Database. Furthermore, we applied Joinpoint regression analysis to evaluate the trends across different regions.ResultsThere are clear regional variations in mortality rates for liver, stomach, and oral cancers, but not for lung, colon, breast, and prostate cancers. The regional death rates of oral cancer, especially for eastern Taiwan, not only elevate the fastest (APC = 14.78% per year, P < 0.001) but also show the largest disparities between men and women. Regional death rates for stomach cancer, which declined most rapidly, are converging in both general and gender groups. Liver cancer is the only one with regional variations whose trends do not all go in the same direction. We also demonstrated that northern Taiwan has significant regional advantages with respect to cancer mortality.ConclusionsSome but not all cancers in Taiwan show regional disparities. Liver, stomach, and oral cancers in Taiwan exhibit clear regional variations in mortality rates. In particular, the regional variations in oral cancer mortality rates are consistent with those in alcohol consumption.     

National and regional breast cancer incidence and mortality trends in Mexico 2001–2011: Analysis of a population-based database

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most common malignancy in Mexican women since 2006. However, due to a lack of cancer registries, data is scarce. We sought to describe breast cancer trends in Mexico using population-based data from a national database and to analyze geographical and age-related differences in incidence and mortality rates.MethodsAll incident breast cancer cases reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and all breast cancer deaths registered by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography in Mexico from 2001 to 2011 were included. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for each age group and for 3 geographic regions of the country. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine trends in BC incidence and mortality. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) using weighted least squares log-linear regression.ResultsWe found an increase in the reported national incidence, with an APC of 5.9% (95% CI 4.1–7.7, p < 0.05). Women aged 60–65 had the highest increase in incidence (APC 7.89%; 95% CI 5.5 −10.3, p < 0.05). Reported incidence rates were significantly increased in the Center and in the South of the country, while in the North they remained stable. Mortality rates also showed a significant increase, with an APC of 0.4% (95% CI 0.1–0.7, p < 0.05). Women 85 and older had the highest increase in mortality (APC 2.99%, 95% CI 1.9–4.1; p < 0.05).ConclusionsThe reporting of breast cancer cases in Mexico had a continuous increase, which could reflect population aging, increased availability of screening, an improvement in the number of clinical facilities and better reporting of cases. Although an improvement in the detection of cases is the most likely explanation for our findings, our results point towards an epidemiological transition in Mexico and should help in guiding national policy in developing countries.     

Changing temporal trends in non-AIDS cancer mortality among people diagnosed with AIDS: San Francisco,California, 1996–2013

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) mortality, but its effect on non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC) mortality is unclear. To help inform cancer prevention and screening, we evaluated trends in NADC mortality among people with AIDS (PWA) in the ART era.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed AIDS surveillance data, including causes of death from death certificates, for PWA in San Francisco who died in 1996–2013. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), and year, age, race, sex-adjusted standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for 1996–1999, 2000–2005, and 2006–2013, corresponding to advances in ART.ResultsThe study included 5822 deceased PWA of whom 90% were male and 68% were aged 35–54 at time of death. Over time, the PMRs significantly decreased for ADCs (2.6%, 1.4%, 1.2%) and increased for NADCs (4.3%, 7.0%, 12.3%). For all years combined (1996–2013) and compared to the California population, significantly elevated SMRs were observed for these cancers: all NADCs combined (2.1), anal (58.4), Hodgkin lymphoma (10.5), liver (5.2), lung/larynx (3.0), rectal (5.2), and tongue (4.7). Over time, the SMRs for liver cancer (SMR 19.8, 11.2, 5.0) significantly decreased while the SMRs remained significantly elevated over population levels for anal (SMR 123, 48.2, 45.5), liver (SMR 19.8, 11.2, 5.0), and lung/larynx cancer (SMR 5.3, 4.7, 3.6).ConclusionA decline in ADC PMRs and increase in NADC PMRs represent a shift in the cancer burden, likely due to ART use. Moreover, given their elevated SMRs, anal, liver, and lung/larynx cancer remain targets for improved cancer prevention, screening, and treatment.     

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005–2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose: To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985–2019 for age groups 15–74 years old through a Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age–drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005–2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of ?2.41% (95% CRI: ?3.65%; ?1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15–74 during 1985–2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15–54 (?1.18%; 95% CRI: ?2.60%; ?0.31%). During 2005–2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985–2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005–2019 among men older than 35.     

Temporal trends in incidence of childhood cancer in Switzerland, 1985–2014

BackgroundIncidence of childhood cancer increased in most countries worldwide, but reasons are unclear. This study investigates trends of childhood cancer incidence in Switzerland from 1985 to 2014.MethodsWe extracted data on all childhood cancer cases diagnosed at ages 0–14 years in Switzerland from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We included ICCC-3 main groups I-XII and calculated age-standardised, cumulative, and age-specific incidence for different diagnostic groups. We analysed trends of annual age-standardised incidence using JoinPoint regression models.ResultsOver the study period from 1985 to 2014, 5104 of 5486 cancer diagnoses (93%) were microscopically verified. The proportion of children treated in paediatric cancer centres increased from 84% during 1985–1994 to 93% in 1995–2004 and 98% in 2005–2014 (p < 0.001). Using the World standard population, age-standardised incidence was 143 in 1985–1994, 154 in 1995–2004, and 162 per million in 2005–2014. Incidence increased by 0.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5; 1.0) per year for all cancers from 1985 to 2014, 0.8% (95% CI 0.2%–1.4%) for leukaemias over the same period, 3.0% (95% CI 0.2%–1.4%) for CNS tumours during 1985–2002, and 3.8% (95% CI 1.7%–6.0%) for epithelial neoplasms and melanomas over the period 1985–2014.ConclusionTrends in incidence were driven mostly by increases among leukaemias and CNS tumours. For CNS tumours, observed trends may be explained at least partially by diagnostic changes and improved registration. For leukaemias, rising incidence may be real and due to risk factors that experience similar increases in trends.     

Renal cell cancer in Israel: Sex and ethnic differences in incidence and mortality, 1980–2004

Background: The causes of renal cell cancer (RCC) remain largely unexplained. While the incidence is generally higher in men than in women, little has been reported on ethnic differences. We examine trends in RCC incidence and mortality rates among Israeli Arab and Jewish populations and compared with the rates in other countries. Methods: Age-adjusted RCC incidence and mortality rates in Israel, during 1980–2004, were calculated by sex and population group, using the National Cancer Registry. They were compared with the United States based on the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results [SEER] program and the IARC database for international comparisons. Results: While RCC incidence rates in Israel are similar to the United States and the European average, the rates are significantly higher among Israeli Jews than Arabs. Men are affected more than women. Incidence rates over the last 24 years have increased among all men and Jewish women, but not among Arab women. Among men, the incidence rate ratio for Jews to Arabs declined from 3.96 in 1980–1982 to 2.34 in 2001–2004, whereas for women there was no change. The mortality rates were higher among Jews than Arab and among men than women. There were no significant change in the mortality rates and rate ratios. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate marked ethnic differences in RCC in Israel. The lower incidence among Arabs stands in contrast to the higher prevalence of potential risk factors for RCC in this population group. Genetic factors, diet and other lifestyle factors could play protective roles.     

Bayesian area–age–period–cohort model with carcinogenesis age effects in estimating cancer mortality

Objective: Area–age–period–cohort (AAPC) model has been widely used in studying the spatial and temporal pattern of disease incidence and mortality rates. However, lack of biological plausibility and ease of interpretability on temporal components especially for age effects are generally the weakness of AAPC models. We develop a Bayesian AAPC model where carcinogenesis age effect is incorporated to explain age effects from the underlying disease process. An autoregressive prior structure and an arbitrary linear constraint are used to solve the nonidentifiability issues. Methods: Two multistage carcinogenesis models are employed to derive the hazard functions to substitute the age effects in the AAPC models. The Iowa county-wide lung cancer mortality data are used for the model fitting and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) is used for model comparison. Results: Our study shows that conventional AAPC model (DIC = 19,231.30), AAPC model with Armitage–Doll age effect (DIC = 19,233.00) and with two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) age effect (DIC = 19,234.70) achieved the similar DIC values which indicated consistent model fitting among three models. The spatial pattern shows that the high spatial effects are clustered in the south of Iowa and also in largely populated areas. The lung cancer mortality rate is continuously declining by birth cohorts while increasing by the calendar period until 2000–2004. The age effects show an increasing pattern over time which can be easily explained by Armitage–Doll carcinogenesis model since we assume a log-linear relationship between age and hazard function. Conclusions: Our finding suggests that the proposed Bayesian AAPC model can be used to replace the conventional AAPC model without affecting model performance while providing a more biological sound approach from the underlining disease process.     

Temporal trends of the airborne fungal spores in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1995–2013

To establish the trends in the period 1995–2013 of the annual fungal spore index of 20 taxa in 8 aerobiological sites of Catalonia, located in 4 phytoclimates, we use the nonparametric Spearman’s Rho and Mann–Kendall tests; when significant, we calculate the magnitude of the change applying the Theil–Sen estimator. We analyze whether the proportional annual change is significantly different from zero, according to phytoclimate, station, and spore taxon, with the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test. Cladosporium, Coprinaceae and Agrocybe are the most prevalent taxa. The proportional annual change analysis shows that 12 taxa present significant increasing trends and 2 decreasing, that the Fresh-Continental Oriental-Humid phytoclimate and Agrocybe show the highest significant increase, while Roquetes-Tortosa (Fresh-Tethyc-Semiarid phytoclimate) and Torula the lowest. The greater significant decreasing proportional annual change corresponds to Drechslera–Helminthosporium and the lesser to Curvularia, and there are no results per phytoclimate and locality. The diversity of characteristics of the sites studied brings the opportunity to evaluate the variability of the fungal values and the magnitude of their change across the study period as depending on the intensity of the land use (urbanization versus agriculture) and the distance to the sea (inland versus littoral), but the effect of the change of the meteorological patterns in the recent years is not negligible. The increasing temperatures and precipitation instability established as effects of the climate change in Catalonia in the last 50 years could be stimulating the sporulation in mountain areas and affecting it in the southern Catalan littoral, thus affecting spore counts.     

Secular trends of HPV genotypes in invasive cervical cancer in Cali,Colombia 1950–1999

Aim To estimate relative contribution and time trends of HPV types in cervical cancer in Cali, Colombia over a 50 years’ period.MethodsParaffin blocks of 736 cervical cancer histological confirmed cases were retrieved from the pathology laboratory at Hospital Universitario del Valle (Cali, Colombia) and HPV genotyped using SPF10-PCR/DEIA/LiPA25 (version 1) assay. Marginal effect of age and year of diagnosis in secular trends of HPV type prevalence among HPV+ cases were assessed by robust Poisson regression analysis.Results64.7% (95%CI: 59.9–69.2) of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) were attributed to HPV 16 and 18, 78.2% (95%CI: 74–82) to HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 and 84.8% (95%CI: 81–88.1) to HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 while ninety-three percent of adenocarcinomas (ADCs) were attributed to HPV 16, 18 and 45 only. The prevalence of specific HPV types did not change over the 50-year period. A significant downward trend of prevalence ratios of HPV16 (​P = 0.017) and α7 but HPV 18 (i.e., HPV 39, 45, 68, 70, ​P = 0.024) with increasing age at diagnosis was observed. In contrast, the prevalence ratio to other HPV genotypes of α9 but HPV 16 genotypes (i.e., HPV 31, 33, 35, 52, 58, 67, ​P = 0.002) increased with increasing age at diagnosis.ConclusionNo changes were observed in the relative contribution of HPV types in cervical cancer in Cali, Colombia during the 50 years. In this population, an HPV vaccine including the HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 genotypes may have the potential to prevent ∼85% and 93% of SCC and ADC cases respectively.     

Cancer mortality 1981–2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BackgroundIn many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.MethodsUsing high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.ResultsCancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.ConclusionCurrent relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.     

Global estimate of gastric cancer in Helicobacter pylori–infected population: A systematic review and meta-analysis

There is information regarding the rates of gastric cancer (GC) in different populations and the important role of Helicobacter pylori in GC development; however, no comprehensive study has yet been performed to investigate the prevalence of GC in H. pylori–infected patients. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library through January 1, 2000 were searched without language restrictions. Quality of included studies was assessed with a critical appraisal checklist recommended by the Joanna Briggs Institute. All of the analyses were conducted using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software Version 2.0 and Stata 14.0. Forty-four studies from 17 countries were included. The pooled frequency of GC was 17.4% (95% confidence interval: 16.4–18.5) in H. pylori–infected population. The frequency of GC among H. pylori–infected population varied markedly across countries. The highest rate of GC was observed in H. pylori–infected individuals from Asian countries. The frequency of GC was relatively high in H. pylori–infected population in the world. However, the eradication of H. pylori might be a promising strategy for GC prevention, especially in high-risk populations such as Asian countries.     

Lyme borreliosis—analysis of the trends in Slovakia, 1999–2008

Lyme borreliosis (LB) presents as one of the most frequent tick-borne diseases in Europe with more than 85,000 reported cases every year. The transport of this disease on humans is by tick species of the genus Ixodes. In our work, we aimed to perform a retrospective analysis of the incidence and seasonality of Lyme borreliosis during the period 1999–2008 in Slovakia. For our analysis, we used all the relevant data about the patients with Lyme borreliosis reported in the Epidemiological Informative System of Communicable Diseases in Slovakia during the decade of 1999–2008. During the observed period, there were 7,349 reported cases of LB in Slovakia. Whereas the incidence of early localized infection did not change during the observed period, there was a significant increase in the incidence of early disseminated infection and late persistent infection of LB. Seventy per cent of all patients was infected by tick bite. LB was more frequently reported in females than in males (56.1% vs. 43.9%; p < 0.05), and the most involved age group was the productive age (15–64 years). The incidence of disseminated infection and persistent infection was rising with increasing age. Regarding the seasonality of LB, we found the highest incidence during the summer months. Comparing the situation of LB in 1999 and 2008, significant increase in the number of reported cases was in April and June and from September to November (p < 0.05). Our epidemiological analysis confirmed that Lyme borreliosis requires increased attention due to its increasing incidence.