A complex scenario of glacial survival in Mediterranean and continental refugia of a temperate continental vole species (Microtus arvalis) in Europe

The role of glacial refugia in shaping contemporary species distribution is a long-standing question in phylogeography and evolutionary ecology. Recent studies are questioning previous paradigms on glacial refugia and postglacial recolonization pathways in Europe, and more flexible phylogeographic scenarios have been proposed. We used the widespread common vole Microtus arvalis as a model to investigate the origin, locations of glacial refugia, and dispersal pathways, in the group of “Continental” species in Europe. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal diffusion analysis (relaxed random walk model) of cytochrome b sequences across the species range, including newly collected individuals from 10 Iberian localities and published sequences from 68 localities across 22 European countries. Our data suggest that the species originated in Central Europe, and we revealed the location of multiple refugia (in both southern peninsulas and continental regions) for this continental model species. Our results confirm the monophyly of Iberian voles and the pre-LGM divergence between Iberian and European voles. We found evidence of restricted postglacial dispersal from refugia in Mediterranean peninsulas. We inferred a complex evolutionary and demographic history of M. arvalis in Europe over the last 50,000 years that does not adequately fit previous glacial refugial scenarios. The phylogeography of M. arvalis provides a paradigm of ice-age survival of a temperate continental species in western and eastern Mediterranean peninsulas (sources of endemism) and multiple continental regions (sources of postglacial spread). Our findings also provide support for a major role of large European river systems in shaping geographic boundaries of M. arvalis in Europe.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.     

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine‐Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming.     

Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum

Numerous studies have shown that the genetic diversity of species inhabiting temperate regions has been shaped by changes in their distributions during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. For some species, the genetic distinctness of isolated populations is maintained during secondary contact, while for others, admixture is frequently observed. For the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), an important defoliator of oak forests across Europe and northern Africa, we previously determined that contemporary populations correspond to genetic diversity obtained during the last glacial maximum (LGM) through the use of refugia in the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, and to a lesser extent the Caucasus region. Missing from this sampling were populations from the Italian peninsula and from North Africa, both regions known to have played important roles as glacial refugia for other species. Therefore, we genotyped field‐collected winter moth individuals from southern Italy and northwestern Tunisia—the latter a region where severe oak forest defoliation by winter moth has recently been reported—using polymorphic microsatellite. We reconstructed the genetic relationships of these populations in comparison to moths previously sampled from the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, the Caucasus region, and western Europe using genetic distance, Bayesian clustering, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our results indicate that both the southern Italian and the Tunisian populations are genetically distinct from other sampled populations, and likely originated in their respective refugium during the LGM after diverging from a population that eventually settled in the Iberian refugium. These suggest that winter moth populations persisted in at least five Mediterranean LGM refugia. Finally, we comment that outbreaks by winter moth in northwestern Tunisia are not the result of a recent introduction of a nonnative species, but rather are most likely due to land use or environmental changes.     

Winter is coming: Miocene and Quaternary climatic shifts shaped the diversification of Western‐Mediterranean Harpactocrates (Araneae,Dysderidae) spiders

Past climatic shifts have played a major role in generating and shaping biodiversity. Quaternary glacial cycles are the better known examples of dramatic climatic changes endured by ecosystems in temperate regions. Although still a matter of debate, some authors suggest that glaciations promoted speciation. Here we investigate the effect of past climatic changes on the diversification of the ground‐dwelling spider genus Harpactocrates, distributed across the major mountain ranges of the western Mediterranean. Concatenated and species‐tree analyses of multiple mitochondrial and nuclear loci, combined with the use of fossil and biogeographic calibration points, reveal a Miocene origin of most nominal species, but also unravel several cryptic lineages tracing back to the Pleistocene. We hypothesize that the Miocene Climatic Transition triggered major extinction events in the genus but also promoted its subsequent diversification. Under this scenario, the Iberian mountains acted as an island‐like system, providing shelter to Harpactocrates lineages during the climate shifts and favouring isolation between mountain ranges. Quaternary glacial cycles contributed further to the diversification of the group by isolating lineages in peripheral refugia within mountain ranges. In addition, we recovered some unique biogeographic patterns, such as the colonization of the Alps and the Apennines from the Iberian Peninsula.     

High levels of population subdivision in a morphologically conserved Mediterranean toad (Alytes cisternasii) result from recent,multiple refugia: evidence from mtDNA,microsatellites and nuclear genealogies

Pleistocene glaciations often resulted in differentiation of taxa in southern European peninsulas, producing the high levels of endemism characteristic of these regions (e.g. the Iberian Peninsula). Despite their small ranges, endemic species often exhibit high levels of intraspecific differentiation as a result of a complex evolutionary history dominated by successive cycles of fragmentation, expansion and subsequent admixture of populations. Most evidence so far has come from the study of species with an Atlantic distribution in northwestern Iberia, and taxa restricted to Mediterranean‐type habitats remain poorly studied. The Iberian Midwife toad (Alytes cisternasii) is a morphologically conserved species endemic to southwestern and central Iberia and a typical inhabitant of Mediterranean habitats. Applying highly variable genetic markers from both mitochondrial and nuclear genomes to samples collected across the species’ range, we found evidence of high population subdivision within A. cisternasii. Mitochondrial haplotypes and microsatellites show geographically concordant patterns of genetic diversity, suggesting population fragmentation into several refugia during Pleistocene glaciations followed by subsequent events of geographical and demographic expansions with secondary contact. In addition, the absence of variation at the nuclear β‐fibint7 and Ppp3caint4 gene fragments suggests that populations of A. cisternasii have been recurrently affected by episodes of extinction and recolonization, and that documented patterns of population subdivision are the outcome of recent and multiple refugia. We discuss the evolutionary history of the species with particular interest in the increasing relevance of Mediterranean refugia for the survival of genetically differentiated populations during the Pleistocene glaciations as revealed by studies in co‐distributed taxa.     

Refugia within refugia – patterns in endemism and genetic divergence are linked to Late Quaternary climate stability in the Iberian Peninsula

In Europe, southern peninsulas served as major refugia during Pleistocene cold periods. However, growing evidence has revealed complex patterns of glacial survival within these southern regions, with multiple glacial refugia within each larger refugial area. We investigated the extent to which patterns of endemism and phylogeographic are concordant across animal species in the Iberian Peninsula, one of the most important unglaciated areas in Europe during the Pleistocene, can be explained in terms of climatic stability. We found that historical climatic stability (notably climate velocity measures integrating macroclimatic shifts with local spatial topoclimate gradients) was often among the most important predictors of endemic species richness for different taxonomic groups using models that also incorporated measures of modern climate. Furthermore, for some taxonomic groups, climatic stability was also correlated with patterns of spatial concordance in interpopulation genetic divergence across multiple taxa, and private haplotypes were more frequently found in relatively stable areas. Overall, our results suggest that both endemism patterns and cross‐taxa concordant phylogeographic patterns across the Iberian Peninsula to some extent are linked to spatial variation in Late Quaternary climate stability, in agreement with the proposed ‘refugia‐within‐refugia’ scenario. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 113 , 13–28.     

Population genetic structure of the bank vole Myodes glareolus within its glacial refugium in peninsular Italy

It is now well established that Southern European peninsulas have been major glacial refugia for temperate species during Pleistocene climatic oscillations. However, substantial environmental changes occurred also within these peninsulas throughout the Pleistocene, raising questions about the role and interplay of various microevolutionary processes in shaping patterns of intraspecific diversity within these areas. Here, we investigate the patterns of genetic variation in the bank vole Myodes glareolus within the Italian peninsula. By using a panel of 13 microsatellite loci, we found more intraspecific variation than expected based on previous assessments. Indeed, both Bayesian and ordination‐based clustering analyses of variation recovered five main geographic/genetic clusters along the peninsula, with three clusters geographically restricted to the southern portion of the peninsula. This clustering is supported by previous evidences of some morphological distinctiveness among these populations. This pattern can be explained by a refugia‐within‐refugia scenario, with the occurrence of multiple sub‐refugia for the bank vole within the Italian peninsula, likely promoted by the major palaeo‐environmental changes which affected forested habitats within this area during the Pleistocene. Moreover, our results support a scenario whereby the high levels of intraspecific diversity observed within major Pleistocene refugia are better explained by dynamic microevolutionary processes occurred within these areas, rather than by long‐term demographic stability of refugial population. Finally, the narrow and isolated distribution of some of the identified lineages suggests the need for future assessments of their conservation and taxonomic status.     

Mitochondrial DNA phylogeography of Lissotriton boscai (Caudata, Salamandridae): evidence for old, multiple refugia in an Iberian endemic

In Europe, southern peninsulas served as refugia during cold periods in the Pleistocene, acting both as centres of origin of endemisms and as sources from which formerly glaciated areas were recolonized during interglacial periods. Previous studies have revealed that within the main refugial areas, intraspecific lineages often survived in allopatric refugia. We analysed two mitochondrial markers (nad4, control region, approximately 1.4 kb) in 103 individuals representing the entire distribution of Lissotriton boscai, a newt endemic to the western Iberian Peninsula. We inferred the evolutionary history of the species through phylogenetic, phylogeographic and historical demographic analyses. The results revealed unexpected, deep levels of geographically structured genetic variability. We identified two main evolutionary lineages, each containing three well-supported clades. The first historical split involved populations from central-southwestern coastal Portugal and the ancestor of all the remaining populations around 5.8 million years ago. Both lineages were subsequently fragmented into different population groups between 2.5 and 1.2 million years ago. According to nested clade analysis, at lower hierarchical levels the patterns suggest restricted gene flow with isolation by distance, whereas at higher levels the clades exhibit signatures of contiguous range expansion. Bayesian Skyline Plots show recent bottlenecks, followed by demographic expansions in all lineages. The significant genetic structure found is consistent with long-term survival of populations in allopatric refugia, supporting the 'refugia-within-refugia' scenario for southern European peninsulas. The comparison of our results with other co-distributed species highlights the generality of this hypothesis for the Iberian herpetofauna and suggests that Mediterranean refuges had more relevance for the composition and distribution of present biodiversity patterns than currently acknowledged. We briefly discuss the taxonomic and conservation implications of our results.     

Past tree range dynamics in the Iberian Peninsula inferred through phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling: A review

The forests in the Iberian Peninsula have been strongly influenced by past climatic changes, but reconstructing their historical distributions and dynamics is very difficult due to the complex climatic characteristics and relief of the region. Research disciplines such as phylogeography and species distribution modelling can describe the past range dynamics of individual tree species in relatively great detail and help elucidate how these species have reacted to climatic changes. Here we review phylogeographical and modelling studies from species representative of the major Iberian forest types and attempt to extract general trends from the diversity of individual species histories in the Peninsula. To date most studies focus on geographical range dynamics during the Pleistocene, but an increasing body of evidence shows that some species have also retained the genetic imprints of much more ancient processes. Many widespread Iberian species show a deep and often remarkably clear-cut divide between populations from the Mediterranean and from the Atlantic regions of the Iberian Peninsula, suggesting that both areas have independently sustained viable populations over extended periods. In fact, phylogeographical studies commonly find that species had several glacial refugia across the Iberian Peninsula. On the other hand, distribution models help identifying further suitable areas that could have sustained so far undetected refugia. Such studies are of interest for species conservation, because refugium populations are high-priority targets due to their long-term persistence and unique evolutionary trajectory. Overall, we conclude that palaeoecology, phylogeography and species distribution modelling have a great potential to inform each other because of their complementary perspectives and results. A true integration of these approaches is therefore fundamental for further progress in our understanding of past Iberian environments and the organisms they harboured.     

Pleistocene diversification in Morocco and recent demographic expansion in the Mediterranean pond turtle Mauremys leprosa

Quaternary climatic oscillations and geographic barriers have strongly influenced the distribution and diversification of thermophilic species occurring in the Mediterranean Basin. The Western Mediterranean pond turtle, Mauremys leprosa, is widely distributed throughout the Iberian Peninsula, southern France and most of the Maghreb region, with two subspecies currently recognized. In this work, we used 566 samples, including 259 new individuals, across the species range, and sequenced two mitochondrial markers (cytochrome b gene and control region; 163 samples in a concatenated mtDNA dataset) and one nuclear intron (R35; 23 samples representing all identified sublineages) to study the evolutionary history of M. leprosa. We combined phylogenetic methods and phylogeographic continuous diffusion models with spatial analysis. Our results (1) show a high level of genetic structure in Morocco originated during the Pleistocene; (2) reveal two independent population expansion waves from Morocco to Tunisia and to southern Europe, which later expanded throughout the Iberian Peninsula, and (3) identify several secondary contact zones in Morocco. Our study also sheds new light on the role of geographical features (Moroccan mountains ranges and the Strait of Gibraltar) and Pleistocene climatic oscillations in shaping genetic diversity and structure of M. leprosa, and underlines the importance of the Maghreb as a differentiation centre harbouring distinct glacial refugia.     

Imprints of multiple glacial refugia in the Pyrenees revealed by phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling of an endemic spider

Mediterranean mountain ranges harbour highly endemic biota in islandlike habitats. Their topographic diversity offered the opportunity for mountain species to persist in refugial areas during episodes of major climatic change. We investigate the role of Quaternary climatic oscillations in shaping the demographic history and distribution ranges in the spider Harpactocrates ravastellus, endemic to the Pyrenees. Gene trees and multispecies coalescent analyses on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences unveiled two distinct lineages with a hybrid zone around the northwestern area of the Catalan Pyrenees. The lineages were further supported by morphological differences. Climatic niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) identified two lowland refugia at the western and eastern extremes of the mountain range, which would suggest secondary contact following postglacial expansion of populations from both refugia. Neutrality test and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses indicated that several local populations underwent severe bottlenecks followed by population expansions, which in combination with the deep population differentiation provided evidence for population survival during glacial periods in microrefugia across the mountain range, in addition to the main Atlantic and Mediterranean (western and eastern) refugia. This study sheds light on the complexities of Quaternary climatic oscillations in building up genetic diversity and local endemicity in the southern Europe mountain ranges.     

Pleistocene glacial cycles drove lineage diversification and fusion in the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus)

Species endemic to alpine environments can evolve via steep ecological selection gradients between lowland and upland environments. Additionally, many alpine environments have faced repeated glacial episodes over the past two million years, fracturing these endemics into isolated populations. In this “glacial pulse” model of alpine diversification, cycles of allopatry and ecologically divergent glacial refugia play a role in generating biodiversity, including novel admixed (“fused”) lineages. We tested for patterns of glacial pulse lineage diversification in the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus [Bufo] canorus), an alpine endemic tied to glacially influenced meadow environments. Using double‐digest RADseq on populations densely sampled from a portion of the species range, we identified nine distinct lineages with divergence times ranging from 18 to 724 thousand years ago (ka), coinciding with multiple Sierra Nevada glacial events. Three lineages have admixed origins, and demographic models suggest these fused lineages have persisted throughout past glacial cycles. Directionality indices supported the hypothesis that some lineages recolonized Yosemite from east of the ice sheet, whereas other lineages remained in western refugia. Finally, refugial niche reconstructions suggest that low‐ and high‐elevation lineages have convergently adapted to similar climatic niches. Our results suggest glacial cycles and refugia may be important crucibles of adaptive diversity across deep evolutionary time.     

Endemic species may have complex histories: within‐refugium phylogeography of an endangered Iberian vole

Glacial refugia protected and promoted biodiversity during the Pleistocene, not only at a broader scale, but also for many endemics that contracted and expanded their ranges within refugial areas. Understanding the evolutionary history of refugial endemics is especially important in the case of endangered species to recognize the origins of their genetic structure and thus produce better informed conservation practices. The Iberian Peninsula is an important European glacial refugium, rich in endemics of conservation concern, including small mammals, such as the Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae). This near‐threatened rodent is characterized by an unusual suite of genetic, life history and ecological traits, being restricted to isolated geographic nuclei in fast‐disappearing Mediterranean subhumid herbaceous habitats. To reconstruct the evolutionary history of the Cabrera vole, we studied sequence variation at mitochondrial, autosomal and sex‐linked loci, using invasive and noninvasive samples. Despite low overall mitochondrial and nuclear nucleotide diversities, we observed two main well‐supported mitochondrial lineages, west and east. Phylogeographic modelling in the context of the Cabrera vole's detailed fossil record supports a demographic scenario of isolation of two populations during the Last Glacial Maximum from a single focus in the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, our data suggest subsequent divergence within the east, and secondary contact and introgression of the expanding western population, during the late Holocene. This work emphasizes that refugial endemics may have a phylogeographic history as rich as that of more widespread species, and conservation of such endemics includes the preservation of that genetic legacy.     

Are glacial refugia hotspots of speciation and cytonuclear discordances? Answers from the genomic phylogeography of Spanish common frogs

Subdivided Pleistocene glacial refugia, best known as “refugia within refugia”, provided opportunities for diverging populations to evolve into incipient species and/or to hybridize and merge following range shifts tracking the climatic fluctuations, potentially promoting extensive cytonuclear discordances and “ghost” mtDNA lineages. Here, we tested which of these opposing evolutionary outcomes prevails in northern Iberian areas hosting multiple historical refugia of common frogs (Rana cf. temporaria), based on a genomic phylogeography approach (mtDNA barcoding and RAD‐sequencing). We found evidence for both incipient speciation events and massive cytonuclear discordances. On the one hand, populations from northwestern Spain (Galicia and Asturias, assigned to the regional endemic R. parvipalmata), are deeply‐diverged at mitochondrial and nuclear genomes (~4 My of independent evolution), and barely admix with northeastern populations (assigned to R. temporaria sensu stricto) across a narrow hybrid zone (~25 km) located in the Cantabrian Mountains, suggesting that they represent distinct species. On the other hand, the most divergent mtDNA clade, widespread in Cantabria and the Basque country, shares its nuclear genome with other R. temporaria s. s. lineages. Patterns of population expansions and isolation‐by‐distance among these populations are consistent with past mitochondrial capture and/or drift in generating and maintaining this ghost mitochondrial lineage. This remarkable case study emphasizes the complex evolutionary history that shaped the present genetic diversity of refugial populations, and stresses the need to revisit their phylogeography by genomic approaches, in order to make informed taxonomic inferences.     

Species persistence in northerly glacial refugia of Europe: a matter of chance or biogeographical traits?

Aim The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are considered to have been refugia for many European species of plants and animals during the climatic extremes of the Pleistocene ice ages. A number of recent studies (fossil and genetic), however, have provided evidence for full‐glacial survival of some species beyond these peninsulas. Here we explore the biogeographical traits of these species, and ask whether they possessed certain characteristics that enabled them to persist in more northerly refugia. Location Europe. Methods Fossil and genetic evidence for refugial localities of species that survived in Europe during the last full‐glacial was obtained from the literature (totalling 90 species: 34 woody plants and 56 vertebrates). Forty‐seven of these species (23 woody plants and 24 vertebrates) had fossil evidence, whereas the remaining 43 species (11 woody plants and 32 vertebrates) had only genetic evidence. All species were scored according to their present geographical distribution, habitat preference and life‐history traits. The species were classified on the basis of these traits using hierarchical cluster analysis. Analysis of similarities was used to examine differences in vertebrate and woody plant species groups that survived only in southerly refugia and those that also persisted in more northerly locations. Non‐metric multi‐dimensional scaling was used to examine patterns observed between and within groups. Results Results from our analysis of species with fossil and genetic evidence for survival in refugia reveal that species that survived only in southerly refugia were large‐seeded trees or thermophilous vertebrates. In contrast, species that had a full‐glacial distribution, including more northerly locations, were wind‐dispersed, habitat‐generalist trees with the ability to reproduce vegetatively, and habitat‐generalist mammals with present‐day northerly distributions. Main conclusions Analysis of the geographical distribution, habitat preference and life‐history traits of the species studied suggests that underlying biogeographical traits may have determined their response to Pleistocene glaciation. The traits most commonly found in present populations with a northerly distribution in Europe enabled the same species to exist much farther north than the southern European peninsulas during the full‐glacial. It is possible that many of these species are now in restricted populations, within the ‘warm‐stage’ refugia of the current interglacial. The northerly full‐glacial survival of a number of woody plants and vertebrate species has significant implications for understanding migration rates of these species in response to climate change. It also has important implications for understanding current patterns of genetic diversity of European species. We suggest that both fossil and genetic evidence should be used to identify and prioritize for conservation of refugial localities in southern and northern Europe.     

From climate change predictions to actions – conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale

Current climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Species unable to adapt or move will face local or global extinction and this is more likely to happen to species with narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, such as amphibians and reptiles. Biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest in global biodiversity hotspots where climate change is fast, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Here we assess the impact of climate change on 37 endemic and nearly endemic herptiles of the Iberian Peninsula by predicting species distributions for three different times into the future (2020, 2050 and 2080) using an ensemble of bioclimatic models and different combinations of species dispersal ability, emission levels and global circulation models. Our results show that species with Atlantic affinities that occur mainly in the North‐western Iberian Peninsula have severely reduced future distributions. Up to 13 species may lose their entire potential distribution by 2080. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the most critical period for the majority of these species will be the next decade. While there is considerable variability between the scenarios, we believe that our results provide a robust relative evaluation of climate change impacts among different species. Future evaluation of the vulnerability of individual species to climate change should account for their adaptive capacity to climate change, including factors such as physiological climate tolerance, geographical range size, local abundance, life cycle, behavioural and phenological adaptability, evolutionary potential and dispersal ability.     

Evolutionary history of the European free-tailed bat,a tropical affinity species spanning across the Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean Basin is a global biodiversity hotspot, hosting a number of native species belonging to families that are found almost exclusively in tropical climates. Yet, whether or not these taxa were able to survive in the Mediterranean region during the Quaternary climatic oscillations remains unknown. Focusing on the European free-tailed bat (Tadarida teniotis), we aimed to (a) identify potential ancient populations and glacial refugia; (b) determine the post-glacial colonization routes across the Mediterranean; and (c) evaluate current population structure and demography. Mitochondrial and nuclear markers were used to understand T. teniotis evolutionary and demographic history. We show that T. teniotis is likely restricted to the Western Palearctic, with mitochondrial phylogeny suggesting a split between an Anatolian/Middle East clade and a European clade. Nuclear data pointed to three genetic populations, one of which is an isolated and highly differentiated group in the Canary Islands, another distributed across Iberia, Morocco, and France, and a third stretching from Italy to the east, with admixture following a pattern of isolation by distance. Evolutionary and demographic reconstruction supports a pre-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) colonization of Italy and the Anatolian/Middle East, while the remaining populations were colonized from Italy after the Younger Dryas. We also found support for demographic expansion following the Iberian colonization. The results show that during the LGM T. teniotis persisted in Mediterranean refugia and has subsequently expanded to its current circum-Mediterranean range. Our findings raise questions regarding the physiological and ecological traits that enabled species with tropical affinities to survive in colder climates.     

Postglacial colonization of Europe by the barbastelle bat: agreement between molecular data and past predictive modelling

The barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus) is a rare forest bat with a wide distribution in Europe. Here, we combine results from the analysis of two mtDNA fragments with species distribution modelling to determine glacial refugia and postglacial colonization routes. We also investigated whether niche conservatism occurs in this species. Glacial refugia were identified in the three southern European peninsulas: Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. These latter two refugia played a major role in the postglacial colonization process, with their populations expanding to England and central Europe, respectively. Palaeo‐distribution models predicted that suitable climatic conditions existed in the inferred refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Nevertheless, the overlap between the current and the LGM distributions was almost inexistent in Italy and in the Balkans, meaning that B. barbastellus populations were forced to shift range between glacial and interglacial periods, a process that probably caused some local extinctions. In contrast, Iberian populations showed a ‘refugia within refugium’ pattern, with two unconnected areas containing stable populations (populations that subsisted during both glacial and interglacial phases). Moreover, the match between LGM models and the refugial areas determined by molecular analysis supported the hypothesis of niche conservatism in B. barbastellus. We argue that geographic patterns of genetic structuring, altogether with the modelling results, indicate the existence of four management units for conservation: Morocco, Iberia, Italy and UK, and Balkans and central Europe. In addition, all countries sampled possessed unique gene pools, thus stressing the need for the conservation of local populations.